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Zero, which is peace, and total war, which is 10. So many other things can happen.

China can do an embargo to Taiwan, cyber warfare, short sharp war na tinitawag.

So all sorts of things na pwede mangyara.

So bago tayo mag-usap about number 10,

dapat mag-ready tayo for whole range of other things na pwede gawin ng China sa Taiwan

over the next 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 years or so.

So that's the one thing.

The second thing is,

ang hope kasi dito is, if mas malakas yung presence ng U.S. at preparation ng U.S.

dito sa southern shores ng Taiwan,

lalong magdadalawang isip ang China,

tus mas sumugot sa Taiwan.

Remember the Roman saying,

to half peace, prepare for war.

Kasi kung preparado ka, yung kabila magdadalawang isip.

If hindi ka prepared, you invite aggression.

So this is not to provoke China,

this is to dissuade China and deter China from invading Taiwan.

Yun yung hope natin.

But of course, ibang usapan kung ganun ang basa ng China.

And the third thing of course that we have to keep in mind is that,

ganito eh,

ang tanong para sa akin is,

yung mga base natin sa Fuga Island at Mavulis,

na napakalapit sa southern Taiwan,

ito ba ikasama sa EDCA or ito mga yan,

bubuksan lang kung nangyari ng gyera.

Katulad ng sinabi ng isang kaibigan natin si Greg Pauling sa Washington D.C.,

ito yung AMTI, nung nagpapadala ng satellite ni May,

sabi niya, allies cannot be neutral.

Sabi niya, imagine a situation, may gyera,

namamatay yung mga sundalang Amerikana,

tapos sabihin ng Pilipinas,

ay sorry, neutral kami, bahala kayo dyan.

You cannot do that.

The moment you do that, wala na yung aliansa.

Tsaka may MDT.

Exactly.

So ngayon pa lang, prepare na tayo.

Remember, parati natin sinasabi,

ano ang ambag na Amerika sa atin?

So ang sinasabing ng Amerikano ngayon,

ano ang ambag ng Pilipinas sa atin?

Hindi tayo tutulungan.

Singilan ang mangyayari dyan.

Pero sabi ng Presidente natin dati,

enemy to none, friend to all.

Paano ba yan?

That's the problem.

How can you be friends to the enemies,

and how can you be friend to all when others can see you as an enemy

because you have an ally which is their enemy?

You get what I'm saying?

Madaling mag-motherhood statements.

Pero hindi ito beauty pageant.

Ito ay geopolitics.

Let's be realistic about it.

Pero charge, sabi ng mga nasa kaliwa,

huwag kayong magpapaloko dyan.

Hindi na mag-work dati yan.

Dati nga yung under the VFA,

wala naman nangyayari din.

Well, kaya nga binalik yung VFA

kasi nangyari yung mischief rift.

Let's get the chronology right.

Nung umalis ang mga Amerikano in 1992,

the idea was we'll develop our defensive capabilities.

But that takes 10 to 15 years.

Wala pang 2 years, kinuha ng China yung panganiban rift.

Kaya nga pinabalik ni Ramos sa mga Amerikano

under the Visiting Forces Agreement.

Let's get the facts right.

Clearly ang China ay opportunistic.

The moment they sense weakness,

they go for it.

Scar Barshall, the same problem.

Hindi tumulang ang Obama administration sa atin

dahil takot sila sa China.

Boom, pumasok.

But since Trump,

I mean, hindi ako fan ni Trump.

I mean, no question about it.

Medyo next level yung mga ginawa niyang iba.

Hindi ko pwedeng gamitin yung mga ibang adjectives

na gusto kong gamitin.

But pagdating dito sa China,

matapang siya!

At dito sa MDT,

nakita natin sa panahon ni Trump,

klaro na sila na talagang kung susugurin yung mga troops natin,

warships natin, aircrafts natin sa West Philippine Sea,

automatically ma-apply ang MDT.

At na-reiterate ng Biden administration niyan.

So Biden and Trump are not Obama.

Kaya kailangan natin itong aliansan na ito

because wala tayong sapat na kakayan.

But, hopefully in 5 to 10 years from now,

we get enough armaments, enough support,

enough investments sa sandatanang lakas natin

para meron tayong tinatawag na

poison shrimp or porcupine strategy.

The idea there is that,

syempre di natin kayang China one-on-one,

but if we have the minimum deterrence capability,

we can give them a bloody nose if they want to hurt us,

then magdadalawang isip sila.

Pwede natin sila bigyan ng tetano.

Exactly.

Yun itong talagang porcupine with tetano, right?

Or poison shrimp.

You know, pick your poison, no?

Pero yung ironic, ano?

Kasi si Biden ang Pibo to Asia.

Ipalesin niya.

Yes, and Biden is more aggressive than Trump.

Kung titignan mo yung mga sanctions na may naglagay nila sa...

Actually, may similarity si Biden at si...

si Marcos Jr. e.

Kasi si Trump at si Duterte,

matapang tapos medyo magulo yung ginagawa.

Ito si Marcos and Biden,

maayos yung salita,

pero yung mga ginagawa,

alaki ng implication.

Alam mo, Charles, sa totoo lang,

si Biden, noon pa lang, VP pa lang siya,

nung pumasok ang Russia sa Crimea,

siya yung unang nagsabi na,

hindi niyo pwede payaga yan,

balikan nyo dapat yan,

kasi mag-expand lang,

mag-expand yung mga ngokong na yung si Putin

pag hindi kayo pumalag e.

He was right.

Exactly.

I mean, once...

Ganito e,

you give them one inch,

they'll want the whole hand.

Simpla lang yan.

At alam ni Biden yan,

45 years na siya sa business na yan.

Ilan taon na siya?

100 years old na ba si Biden?

Hindi na lang si Henry.

Nag-compete na sila.

Pero Charles, what makes you think

na yung China this time,

medyo magbe-bend backwards konti?

Ganito kasi yung problema.

Ngayon ang China man,

yung isang malaking problema.

Kasi akala nila pa naman ni Duterte,

ang Pilipinas ay parang Cambodia.

Pagkaibigan mo si Hun Sen,

the rest will follow.

Eh, hindi tayo Cambodia,

we're a complicated, messy democracy, right?

At yung ating sandatan lakas,

mas malapit sa Amerika.

Walang ganyan ng Cambodia.

Wala.

Ang media natin dito,

mas simpatetic sa American position.

Bati DFA.

Bati DFA.

So nung 6 years na yan,

nakala ng China,

they can have it on the cheap.

Well, dahil sa kachipan ng strategy nila,

wala silang investment na malaking ginawa dito.

So ngayon, wala yung pakita ng China.

After all the 6 years of dealing with Duterte,