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So yan, alam natin si Professor Richard Hedaya ng ating Suking Ilocano.

Pamiyan, tatangin kami namin sa pinag-uusapan namin tungkol sa ICC, kahit iba yung topic mo.

Richard, naninibago ako sa kanamo.

Ano bang, nandito ka lang ba sa palipaligid o...

Nasa Japan ka rin.

Nasa Japan ka rin.

Nandito ako sa Madrid.

Iba na. Iba na.

Ready na kaya? Nagayang pala puting-pute.

Ready to flamenco. Parang ganyan ba yan?

Mag-DI na lang ako dito.

Baka may future tayo.

Sumasample eh.

Live na lang. Live show na lang tayo siya next time.

Kaya natin inimplitahan nito si Richard Hedaya, isang geopolitical analyst.

Analyst, sabihin natin.

Para pagkwentuhan itong Japan trip ni PBBM.

Pero tingnan natin, kabinan natin yung trade siguro, tingnan natin yung aspetong security and defense.

Pagdating sa Japan, ito yung pinaka steady partner ng Pilipinas throughout the years.

Kung mahalala nyo, Japan lang talaga yung isang bansa na both President Aquino and President Duterte had extremely good relationship with.

Kung mahalala natin si President Duterte once described Japan as closer than brother or friend as close as brother.

And Prime Minister Abe, the late Prime Minister Abe was also the first foreign leader to visit the Philippines

noong panoon ni Pahong Duterte when everyone was shocked and still processing yung mga Duterte style of diplomacy.

So it's a very steady relationship.

And pagdating sa Japan, I've described them as a stealth superpower.

Kasi kung titignan mo yung Japan, we never talked about Japan as a superpower anymore.

Of course, 100 years ago, they were a superpower but in the worst possible way.

Lalo lang kung titignan mo yung pare-trip.

And it has the biggest and most advanced naval forces in Asia and one of the top 5.

So by any measure, Japan is a massive force.

But more importantly, actually Japan po yung top source of infrastructure investment sa buong ASEAN, hindi lang sa Pilipinas.

By far, walang laban ng China sa Japan.

So it's really fascinating how everyone talks about US-China, US-China, US-China.

But on many indicators, actually Japan is still a major, major player.

Especially pagdating dito sa Southeast Asia, pagdating dito sa Pilipinas.

And in multiple surveys, Japan is either number 1 or number 2 as the most preferred external partner for the Philippines or for ASEAN countries.

So whether it's the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies survey in Singapore,

or if you're looking at the Pulse Asia or SW surveys here sa Pilipinas.

Now obviously, etong trip sa Japan, the timing is perfect or not so perfect for China

because it comes right after yung decision ni Marcos to give expanded access, not only full access,

full implementation of EDCA, but expanded access dun sa Amerikano.

And it's really instructive. Kanina, I was just finalizing lang an article on this visit.

And si Emanuel Aram, nung dating chief of staff ni Obama, who's now the ambassador to Tokyo in Japan,

ehin pa lang, nagaganyan na siya, excited na siya because he's expecting that the big security agreement will come out of this visit.

Either the fine print will be out or at least there'll be a political agreement.

And we're looking at the reciprocal access agreement,

which could pave the way for a visiting forces agreement with Japan in the coming years or so.

It might seem impossible because of constitutional issues in Japan, because of Japan's history sa Pilipinas.

But nowadays, impossible doesn't look so impossible anymore.

I think since yung war sa Ukraine, anything is possible in the world of geopolitics.

And obviously, speaking of EDCA, we're giving Americans access.

And again, of course, I'm not going to disagree with what your guest said.

But sabi ko nga, if titignan natin yung EDCA, medyo klaro na yung menu,

but the ingredients that will go into that menu, pwede pa itweet ng Pilipinas.

So for instance, yes, there could be bases given to Americans dun sa Cagayan or Isabela.

But what about yung mga bases natin sa Mavulis or sa Fuga?

Yung Mavulis, 140 nautical miles lang siya from southern shores of Taiwan, so sobrang lapit niyan.

So how much EDCA will be directly tweaked to help the U.S. on the Taiwan issue is also important for Japan

because Japan is also directly concerned with what's happening in Taiwan

for reasons of geography, strategy, and historical background.

Remember, of course, Taiwan.

Taiwan was a colony to Japan in ways that Pilipinas was a colony to the United States.

There's a fond feeling towards Japan and Taiwan in ways you'll never find in Korea or China

and other places in Northeast Asia.

So there's so much at stake here.

So si Marcos Jr., I would say, of the nine visits he has done in the past seven months,

this is the most important, at napakahaba, no? Five days!

Wow! Yung sa China, two days lang. Ito, five days na, no?

So maraming pag-usapan dito, hindi lang infrastructure investment.

I think a $3 billion railway system project is gonna be discussed.

But it's really this reciprocal access agreement.

Yun ang talagang tinitignan natin.

Pero mga Amerikanong ngayon pa lang, gumagano na sila, eh.

Excited na sila about where things are going.

And if you're China, you're gonna watch this very, very carefully.

Reciprocal access agreement.

In simple words, malamang magmi-military exercises na rin ang mga hapon dito sa Pilipinas.

Yeah, maraming firsts, no?

So for the first time, nung 2018, nagpadala ng Armed Forces ng Japan,

balikan ang exercises.

Last December, for the first time, Japanese warplanes ay pumunta dito sa Pilipinas,

not for invading the Philippines, of course, since the end of the Second World War.

And then, by the way, hindi ko rin na-mention yan.

Remember, ang Japan po ay nasa gitna ng isang massive military defense build-up, no?

So they're gonna increase their defense spending from 1% of the GDP to 2% of GDP.

That's gonna be a lot because Japan still has the third largest economy in the world.

So up to $300 billion na additional ay mapupunta doon sa kanilang self-defense forces.

So kasama dyan sa defense build-up ng Japan, they're now looking at a new initiative

hindi lang silang provide ng development assistance, yung kinitawag na ODA, or official development assistance,

but they're now also looking at an overseas defense package aid,

katulad ng foreign military financings ng United States.

So the Philippines could also become the first-ever recipient of a Japanese military aid

since the end of the Second World War.

This is huge, this is big, and the Japanese have been giving us radar systems,

surveillance aircraft, multi-role vessels, more advanced military hardware could also be in the pipelines,

if not during this trip, but in the coming months and coming years.

So the stakes are really, really high dito sa bisita ni Marcos Jr.

Pero Prof, yung military package ng Japan, is that on the table for discussions with BBBM?

In this trip, it is. Nikkei Asia has a report on that. I suggest you guys check it.

Yes, Ronald?

In this trip, yung binabanggit mo, Richard, ay naka-agenda para pag-usapan,

o sa mga susunod pa yan na mga meetings, parang BFA.

BFA wala sa agenda, diba? BFA is a possibility for the future, diba?

Pero for this trip, ano yung...

Ang important is may go signal na dun sa taas.

So kung i-go signal na ni Marcos yan, magpo-follow na yung mga technical working groups and discussions dun sa mga ahensya.

So the most important thing ngayon is mag-go signal na ni Marcos yan, and my senses were almost there na.

Yes, President Marcos himself, nakita ko dun sa video, dun sa pre-departure niya or something,

kasi sabi niya, hindi pa finalize lahat yung issue ng reciprocal access agreement,

but I think we'll more or less get some sort of a general political go signal there,

and then magpo-follow through ng DFA, DND, and other relevant agencies.

I think one indication of that is if ma-announce na rin na there will be a defense aid package,

a historic defense aid package by Japan to the Philippines,

because obviously, bibigyan tayo ng Japan ng ganito if they feel na they got it in the bag,

meaning they'll have a reciprocal access agreement.

Now obviously, Japan is more and more having access to Philippine facilities

because of its joint exercises with the US, with Korea, etc.

But if tutuloy-tuloy ito, we might have even more and more bilateral direct military exercises with Japan.

And of course, ang issue rin rin yun, yung location. Is it going to be close to Taiwan?

Is it going to be close to the West Philippine Sea?

Because on the surface, lahat yan, it's for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations.

Of course, yun yung diplomatic way of putting it.

But we know may direct na kinalaman ito sa China, aking issue sa Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea.

You know, Richard, in the past, countries in the region, Indonesia, Malaysia,

would in the past react with concern at any slight display of military flexing by Japan?

Do you think that Japanese military exercises on Philippine soil

would be a cause of concern at this point by other members of ASEAN?

Well, Japan has a very special relationship with ASEAN.

Actually, I was just invited to give a talk next week sa Jakarta

because I was told na ito pala yung 50th anniversary of Japan-ASEAN relations.

And by the way, Japan is going to push also for comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with ASEAN this year.

So, mabango ang Japan sa Southeast Asia.

So, maybe there are some folks in Southeast Asia, especially people with Chinese background,

who are very eager.

So, for instance, Singapore. In Singapore, medyo, I think, yung Japan,

medyo the memories are quite fresh and raw.

But I think in countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, not that much.

Remember, Patrick, ang Japan po ay tumulong sa nationalist movements in Vietnam and Indonesia versus dun sa mga pute.

The Indonesian independence movement got help from the Japanese against the Dutch.

And in the same way in Vietnam against the French later on.

So, the Japanese imperial Japan is not remembered in the same way that it's remembered in the Philippines,

and most especially in China, Korea, Yunnan King Massacre, and all of that.

So, there's higher comfort level with a more defense-oriented Japan.

And let's not forget, Japan also has a 1 plus 2 plus 2 arrangement with Indonesia,

kung saan defense and foreign ministers nila, institutionalized dialogue meron sila to coordinate things.

Filipinas rin meron yan. Hindi ako magtataka tuloy-tuloy din ito with Vietnam.

And both Philippines and Vietnam, as well as Malaysia, lahat tayo may defense aid nang kinukuha sa Japan.

So, I think as long as Japan is not rhetorically provocative a la Donald Trump or even a la Biden,

and as long as they don't do something too crazy, meaning, I don't know, send submarines every time all the day,

I don't think magkakaroon ng very huge backlash against Japan in this part of the world.

Feeling ko, planchado na yan. Kasi for a very long time, ini-expect natin na Japan will come back.

Japan will come back as a normal power.

Because hindi sila normal power dahil sa kanilang saligang batas,

yung Article 9 nila na pinagbawalan ang offensive military capability.

Pero nakita natin under Abe, minasahin nila yan.

So, for instance, under the doctrine of collective self-defense,

the Japanese can actually help the Philippines via the U.S. alliance.

So, for instance, if you look at the doctrine, sinasabi niya na,

ang Japan ay pwede tumulong sa kanyang mga aliyado, etc.,

if the welfare of the Japanese people is threatened.

Napaka-vague, diba?

So, this will allow, for instance, let's say, God forbid, may gyera sa Taiwan,

kumakasok ang mga Amerikano, damay na rin tayo inevitably,

Japan can also help the Philippines because it's also a fellow ally of the United States.

So, collective self-defense.

So, there's a way whereby, indirectly and more and more directly,

Japan can be helpful to the Philippines, even in an event of total crisis.

But as we always say, Patrick, when you talk about war, step 10 na yan.

Step 1 pa lang naman tayo.

Dami pang pwede mangyari between step 1 and step 10.

Hybrid warfare, cyber warfare, short-sharp war, economic embargo.

So, we have to be prepared for all of this contingency.

50 shades of threats, right?

And that's why tignan natin how far Marcus will go

in really making our relationship with Japan and the US more robust.

Pero Richard, ang gyera kasi minsan hindi siya ganoon ka-predictable.

Na may phases ka papunta sa isang mas mataas na level.

Minsan nagliliprag ka.

I-frosh siya.

I-frosh yung harap mo.

But the Chinese are not like that, Ron.

Hindi, parang Pandora's box. War is like a Pandora's box.

Pinuksan mo yan, hindi mo na alam kung ano yung lalabas.

Kaya nga, sayo mo kanina, halimbawa dito sa usapin ng Taiwan,

whether we like it or not, madadamay tayo.

Ito bang ating mga agreements ay klaro yan?

Halimbawa, ito kasing additional bases ng EDCA.

Karamihan dyan nasa Norte.

Which means na mas nasa context yan ng Taiwan.

Pero wala pa naman tayong nakikita yung fine print.

Mismo yung mga governors sa Cagayan at Isabela,

wala pa daw kumakausap sa kanila.

Ito natin makita yan kasi military secret yan.

Kaya nga.

Pero kung madodraw tayo sa isang offensive war,

labas ng Pilipinas,

ibang usapin yun.

Ibang usapin yung West Philippine Sea.

Yung ating EEZ, yung mga Chinese islands dito.

Pero ibang usapin din kung halimbawa magkaroon ng gera sa Taiwan Strait.

Kung yung ating mga bases sa Cagayan at Isabela madodraw dyan,

ibang usapin yan.

Hindi yan necessarily nakasulat doon sa agreement.

I think Ronald, sabi mo gray area. Maraming gray area dyan.

Even doon sa EDCA, even if there's a fine print,

how you operationalize the fine print could be also very different.

I remember, Ronald, annually we agree with our counterparts in the U.S.

kung anong mga exercises na mangyari and gaano karami.

So last year nag-agree tayo na this year 500 yung military activities natin.

500?

From 300 to 500. Ang laki diba?

And then yung balikatan baka abot na 16,000 troops.

Next year ulit pwede natin i-alian.

We saw that with President Duterte diba?

Pabalik yung balikatan o wala yung balikatan.

I'm not saying Marcos Jr. is the same person as President Duterte.

But we have a precedence whereby pwede mo mamasahi,

pwede mo i-dribble, pwede mo i-adjust how you implement EDCA.

Because, of course, ang isang malaking bagay na hindi pa natin nakita talaga fully

is anong magiging talagang response ng China?

Is China going to later tell BBM na,

ganito pare, kung talagang tuloy-tuloy ka sa mga Japonat at Amerikano,

di talaga mangyari mag-invest or worse,

pwede ka namin ipitin dyan sa West Philippines.

Anong gagawin mo ngayon?

So let's see also what will Marcos do.

Is he going to adjust? Walk it back? Walk it front?

Is he going to go tatay digong style?

So for me, di pa tapos ang drama.

We entered a new chapter, a new, crazy, interesting, fascinating, scary chapter.

But this chapter is strictly still being read.

Kasi parang game theory yan.

What happens with us depends on what China will do.

What China will do also depends on what Japan and US and everyone will do.

So it's a very dynamic sphere as far as that's concerned.

But the last point, Ronald,

kailangan sa Taiwan yung expansion ng EDCA.

Sorry, Patrick, about that.

But let's not forget, for China, related ang West Philippine siya, Taiwan.

Remember, ang Taiwan po ay andon rin yung West Philippine Sea.

So if China dominates the West Philippine Sea,

it can dominate the western flank of Taiwan.

Will make it even harder for the United States to help Taiwan.

So for me, yes, in a way they're separate.

But maybe for China, they're not that separate.

So what China does in the West Philippine Sea, may kinalaman din ito sa Taiwan.

Let's not forget, makakatabi lang yan.

Connectado lahat yan.

Imbashi Strait, Luzon Strait, West Philippine Sea, all of that.

And East China Sea.

That's why Japan din, damay din sila dito.

They're worried about the West Philippines and Taiwan

because apektado din yung kanilang interest sa Senkaku, Diaoyu Islands,

not to mention Okinawa and the rest.

So very related yan.

Diba ang tawag dyan, first island chain.

So all of these areas are covered by first island chain.

And we know China has a first island change strategy

and they want to dominate the whole area.

Yes, pero sinasabi ko lang, Richard,

ibang usapin kasi kung papasok ka sa isang gera defending Taiwan.

Yung Pilipinas, I'm not talking about the U.S.

Paano yung U.S.?

Tinapos na nila yung panilang strategic ambiguity.

Nagsalita na si Biden that we will defend Taiwan militarily.

Tayo, wala pa tayong sinasabing ganyan.

Sa ngayon, theoretically,

ang ating policy sa Taiwan is one China policy pa rin.

Theoretically, yan yung ating policy.

Unlike Biden, wala namang tayong sinasabing na we will defend Taiwan militarily.

That's not the issue.

So ang tanong ko,

alimawa, nilusub ng China ang Taiwan.

Will we defend Taiwan?

We will just allow the Americans to have access to our bases

to conduct their defensive operations.

I think it's really just that.

Hindi tayo magpapadala ng troops sa Taiwan.

Hindi ganon kasimple yan.

May risk yan.

Siyempre, lulusugin ka rin ng China. I know that.

I guess it brings us back to the Vietnam War.

Clark and Subic were forward bases to the Vietnam War.

But we had no participation in the Vietnam War.