Bukod sa diplomatic protests at pagpapatawag sa Chinese ambassador, ano pa ang mga dapat tugon ng Pilipinas sa pambu-bully ng China sa West Philippine Sea?

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Welcome to Facts Verse Wednesday, Magandang gabi po sa inyo lahat. Ako po si Christian Esguerra at welcome po sa ating episode ngayong gabi ng Facts Verse Wednesday po ngayon kalagitnaan po ng linggo

At pag-uusapan po natin yung napakainit na issue po na kaugnay po doon sa nangyaring harassment ng Chinese Coast Guard sa isang Philippine Coast Guard vessel doon po malapit sa Ayungin Shoal

Liwanagin lang po natin itong Ayungin Shoal ay pasok po sa ating Exclusive Economic Zone, 200 nautical miles kung saan tayo po yung merong sovereign rights na dapat ina-exercise natin sa ligur na ito

Pero despite that, hinaras na naman po yung ating Philippine vessel ng Chinese Coast Guard, tinutukan po ng military grade laser at ito po ang naging sanhi ng temporary blindness doon po sa crew members na nakasakay po doon sa BRP Malapasqua, malapit po sa Ayungin Shoal

Ito po we understand yung mission po ay kaugnay po doon sa resupply operations dahil meron po tayo doong BRP Sierra Madre

Ito po yung mga mga diplomatic protests aside from the decision by the President to summon the Chinese Ambassador kanina po.

Ito po yung ating security at defense analyst. Magandang gabi po sir and thank you for joining us again dito po sa Facts Verse. Magandang gabi Christian and thank you very much again for bringing me back to your program. It's always a pleasure and honor on my part to be part of your program.

Salamat sir. Unang una, ganoon po baka seryoso itong nangyaring insidente malapit po sa Ayungin Shoal? February 6, tinutukan po ng military grade laser ng isang Chinese Coast Guard vessel, yung Philippine Coast Guard vessel.

Well, it's not actually the worst encounter we had with the Chinese. Actually, the more dangerous encounter happened on February 17, 2020 but this was not really covered by the media because this was during the Duterte administration.

In this situation, you have the BRP Conrado Yap encountering a Chinese corvette and the Chinese corvette directed its gun control director against the Conrado Yap. In this case, gray to gray.

So this would have triggered a major incident. Interestingly, this happened two weeks after President Duterte decided to abrogate the Visiting Forces Agreement.

So ang nabibigyan ng pansin, it's because it's a Coast Guard and it happened near Ayunin Shoal. But if you're familiar with incidents, and this is something we have to understand, incidents involving Chinese gray zone operations,

this is not actually the most dangerous. Because in this case, in the BRP Conrado Yap versus of course this Chinese corvette, they are of course naval vessels. They're not civilian vessels.

That's what Professor is talking about, gray to gray. Military vessels as opposed to white to white. That's the Coast Guard.

Okay. But this is specific to what happened on February 6 because there's nothing we can do. The incident happened and there's a lot of media coverage. How important is it in the current context that we are in now?

It's important because we have a new president who indicated that we have to find a balance between China and the United States. And also of course, it's just about less than a month or more than a month

when he went to Beijing and he announced that there were several agreements signed with China. And upon his return, he said, we already have the hotline between the Philippines and China,

but everything seems to be falling apart. Interestingly, even last year when President, I'm terribly sorry, Foreign Minister Wang Yi came here and met our president.

This was around July. He even announced the golden age of Philippine-China relation. What a golden age.

You're still doing harassment despite that.

Actually, China has always been consistent. It's a gray zone operation. So let me define what is a gray zone operation.

These are political, economic, diplomatic, and certainly sometimes military measures aimed to change the status quo without the actual use of force.

This is included?

This is included. I still remember when I was with the National Security Advisor in 2014, the Chinese Coast Guard even blocked our supply ship in Eunging Shoal.

So consistently, they've been doing it. The only change is they use a military-grade laser against our ship, which of course they have also done against the Australians, the Americans.

So this is a new technology, but it's still the same old trick, gray zone operation.

So basically, they're trying to seize control of that area without using military force actually. Are they succeeding?

For context for those who are watching us, in Eunging Shoal, we have a Balandrang BRP Sierra Madre.

It's a very old ship, but it's still part of the active fleet.

It means that if it's moved by China or any country, it will be a problem. But for all intents and purposes, are they getting their way in that area?

Will they be able to enter our Exclusive Economic Zone?

I don't think so. Our ten servicemen on board the BRP Sierra Madre are still there.

We can say that the Chinese have succeeded if we withdraw those ten service personnel and we stop the resupply.

So this is a game, a long game. The one who uses force loses.

The one who basically lost his will or go haywire, you lose the game.

So we have to play the game. We have to understand the nature of this game.

So how should we play this game? Because this is a commonplace. The Chinese are always harassing the Coast Guard.

Let them harass us.

What should be our response?

Our supply is continuous. And of course, this is probably the opportunity.

This is also what Associate Justice Carpio raised yesterday. This might be an opportunity for us to conduct a joint patrol.

Around that area, joint patrol.

Then even probably ask our ally, the United States, to at least watch from the distance depending on what they would like to do.

Whether to escort or watch from a distance or send a P-8 Orion or probably show to the Chinese that they have an attack submarine in that area.

To send the message to the Chinese, we are watching the developments there.

I think my first take would be, let's conduct joint patrol around that area.

Is joint patrol sustainable at this time?

Well, let's provide the Americans a facility. We have EDCA sites.

So they have additional military access.

We offered the Americans a naval port as part of a joint.

So they could maintain sustained naval presence in Philippine waters.

The same way as when we had Subic Naval Base before 1992.

Okay. The mere presence is a response in itself. But the decision of President Marcos to call the Chinese ambassador, is there something unusual about it?

Normally, the foreign minister, our DFA secretary, should be the one to summon.

It should be the Assistant Secretary for Asia-Pacific Affairs, which is no less than my friend and my former classmate in the University of the Philippines, Ambassador Neil Imperial.

Okay. But here, it's a super high level. The President himself summoned.

Yes.

What does this mean?

Probably President Marcos would like to impress the sense of urgency that what you did.

I just talked with your President Xi Jinping and it was nice. But what's happening on ground?

But I was also surprised by the fact that the Chinese ambassador merely stated the statement of the Chinese foreign ministry that they own the waters.

Let's go back to one of our concerns here Professor De Castro.

If the statements of the Chinese media are being released again and again, it's gaslighting.

It's like the Philippine Coast Guard is blaming us for being in our own exclusive economic zone.

But that's part of the strategy of China. You repeat a lie until it becomes accepted by people.

And that's because you get tired and you give way. That's how it is. Gray zone operation.

That's how we're releasing the arbitral ruling. So we should also state the arbitral ruling.

China has no business being there on the basis of the Arbitral Tribunal 2016 ruling that China's nine-dash line has no legal basis.

It's a sham in short.

It's a sham. Let's say that China has a big heart. They said, our claim is based on international law and UNCLOS.

I can remember an incident. I remember an incident. This was a conference in Malaysia that was held in 2018.

Then you have the Chinese academic mentioning UNCLOS.

Then I told him, so you're talking about UNCLOS? What about the arbitral ruling?

Then he told me, I cannot hear what you're saying. So it's also time for our government to tell China about the arbitral ruling.

If you cannot hear it, we'll make it louder. Anyway, we also can't hear what you're saying that this is Chinese territorial waters.

In a simple language, China's statement seems to have a thick face because they're saying that the intruder in the Philippine Coast Guard vessel is our exclusive economic zone.

Number two, their own troops acted in a professional manner and that's all they used.

In short, should we thank them? Thank you very much. You're just pointing a laser at us.

When Channel 2 covered the best catch of our fishermen in Scarborough Shoal.

During the time of President Duterte, their broadcast to their people, our gallant Coast Guard personnel are doing their job

of enforcing China's validity over their Chinese work for Ayungin Shoal or Scarborough Shoal.

So we should face them.

Also sir, there's a legal cover, there's a quote unquote legal cover on them as far as they are concerned.

This is what the Chinese Coast Guard did to the Philippine Coast Guard vessel because the Chinese Coast Guard

to actually conduct law enforcement operations in a place that China claims as its own.

So basically more than 85% of the South China Sea.

This is the difference between the Chinese Coast Guard and other Coast Guards around the world.

Almost all the Coast Guards around the world, as my friend Commodore J. Tarjala of the Philippine Coast Guard said,

all of them are law enforcement, constabulary at sea.

But the Chinese Coast Guard is different.

The Chinese Coast Guard is to assert China's maritime sovereignty.

So that's the difference of the Chinese Coast Guard.

Their mandate is to assert China's sovereignty over these waters.

So we have to understand the very nature of the Chinese Coast Guard.

Also, most of their vessels came from the People's Liberation Army's Navy.

So they're armed with 76mm cannons and other machine guns.

The People's Liberation Army's Navy didn't leave.

The armaments there were painted white.

So that's the claim. Yes.

What do you think of the statement coming from the Department of Foreign Affairs?

This is a bit strong.

The Philippines has a prerogative to conduct legitimate activities within its Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf.

China does not have law enforcement rights or powers in and around Ayungin Shoal or any part of the Philippine EEZ.

That's very clear.

Yes, but you have to back it up with our Coast Guards, with the presence of our Coast Guard.

That's what Admiral Abue said.

We will continue sending patrols.

We will continue providing support to the resupply operation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

We have to do what is necessary.

We should not be concerned about China being angry or we're hurting the Chinese feelings.

My goodness, we have to go beyond that.

We have to play hardball but with the recognition of course that China has all the resources.

So we have to play it wisely.

How can you see more promising signals under this new administration compared to the 2013 administration?

Because the administration's tail is very loose.

Although, excuse me, we don't like war.

Again, foreign policy is much more complicated than that and sophisticated.

We are not advocating war here.

You have to make that clear.

But the response of the Duterte administration is very loose.

What can you see as the promising signals now?

First of all, he has not yet become president.

He already acknowledged the ruling.

The long time before Duterte used it.

2020.

I think during the height of the pandemic, that's the first time that the Department of Foreign Affairs acknowledged the ruling.

July 16, 2020.

Finally, I think it has something to do with the pressure exerted by the former foreign secretary, Chudolo Luxin.

This current administration immediately announced that it acknowledges the ruling.

At the same time, of course, the effort is dramatic to repair our alliance with the United States.

This new administration?

This administration.

So probably it's high time that we use the ace in our sleeve.

And that is of course our alliance with the United States and of course also our security partnerships with Australia and of course Japan.

Okay.

So if we want really to raise the ante, probably it's high time that we conduct a joint patrol with the United States and Japan along the vicinity of Ayungi shore.

Okay.

What is your response to what others are saying?

We also have to thread this carefully.

Although this is pretty obvious, we are being caught in a proxy war between the United States and China in this part of the world, which is basically our neighborhood.

It's not proxy because the notion of proxy is that we are being used as a puppet.

It's not in our interest to defend what we believe is ours.

No, it's not a proxy war.

The United States is not engaged in a proxy war with China.

The United States is openly engaged in a strategic competition with China.

So why won't we take advantage of that situation wherein of course the United States is offering us options on how to deal with China.

The notion of being proxy means that we are mindless.

We are not capable of making decision that our decision to have maintained this alliance and expand it is an indication that we are capable, we are active actors that have the free will to make a decision.

So I don't think we are not that dumb to be used as a proxy.

That's a very, very simplistic notion that the Philippines is being used as a proxy.

Okay. So here, how can we avoid that? How should we play our cards in this particular case?

We have to deal with our allies. We have to talk with our allies.

You have to make it a point that we advance our interests at the same time.

Of course, we have to know how to play the alliance game.

It's a complex process.

Especially given the fact that our ally, our only treaty ally, happens to be a superpower.

So we have to play it wisely.

Is this where Justice Carpio agrees that we should trigger the MDT, the Mutual Defense Treaty?

Actually, I think it might be too premature because there is no actual use of force yet.

If there is an actual use of force, I think that's the time.

In fact, interestingly, Christian, when Vice President Kamala Harris came here,

she gave a statement that I find it very interesting that not a lot of people notice this.

Her statement is like this. Check it. Please check it.

Any attack on Philippine public vessel, land, sea, or air and the armed forces of the Philippines will trigger the Mutual Defense Treaty.

That's the American interpretation.

Yes. Because during Obama's time, I remember when I was a reporter in Malacanang covering for The Inquirer,

when Barack Obama visited, the language engineering that they used,

the most that they said was to that very clear question.

Obama's answer was ironclad support from the US.

But this is clearer, right? That's the interpretation of the United States.

Interpretation that it will invoke.

So we actually don't need to invoke it.

The United States, from the American perspective, any attack, immediate attack,

would automatically lead to the invocation of the Mutual Defense Treaty.

Put the Mutual Defense Treaty on its rightful process.

Sir, there's a question that I think is representative of a lot of concerns coming from ordinary Filipinos.

What will happen if China continues to patrol beyond their quote-unquote claim territory?

There are two aspects to that.

By conducting their patrol, they're laying their claim.

At the same time, their patrol is aimed to prevent us from patrolling and, of course, affecting our jurisdiction.

So if we allow the Chinese to patrol those waters without challenging them,

eventually that will become a de facto realization of China's nine-dash-line claim.

So we have to continuously challenge it, short of actual use of force.

Short of actual use of force.

Yeah. We have to play the Chinese game.

What's that? Wait a minute.

Okay. What you said is very interesting.

Short of actual use of force on the part of the Philippines.

But we don't have gray zone tactics, right?

China has it.

We have to develop. We have to develop. We have to learn.

So how?

The Americans and the Soviets during the Cold War were playing this game,

the Soviet Navy and the United States Navy.

That's why they have agreements on how to manage it.

Does that mean we should deploy fishing vessels that pretend to be fish but have guns and are under the direction of the Navy?

Just hold on. Hold on to the Yonging Shoal.

Probably it's also high time that we allocate more budget to the Philippine Navy and of course the Philippine Coast Guard

so we can get better ships and we also have to start training more Filipino for the naval services.

We export a lot of seafarers while our Navy and Coast Guard are considered the weakest in the region.

We are a maritime state.

We are an archipelagic state.

The Filipino people is a maritime nation.

So probably we have to realize this by building up our naval capabilities,

both the Navy and of course the Coast Guard.

It's only natural for the Philippines just like Japan,

just like the United Kingdom to become natural maritime powers.

If we will allow China to control the waters around us,

that will prevent us from realizing what I consider my dream for the Philippines to become a naval power

no different from Japan and of course the United Kingdom.

Okay.

Sir, may isang tanong from...

Ay, mali. Mali. Napindot natin.

Basura yung comment na yun. Napindot natin.

Yung militarization.

Hindi niya...

Wag yung pansin niyan. Papansin lang yan. Dito tayo sa tanong-tanong.

If Floyd Dizon, sabi niya, what are the implications if the Philippines turns Pag-asa Island into a military base?

Actually, it's practically a military base.

You have marines there.

But compared to, let's say, Mischief Reef and other Chinese militarized structures,

wala, wala. Pag-asa Island is nothing.

Just for example, what China had done to Mischief Reef.

Oo. Oo. Tama.

Hindi nga natin maayos yung airstrip.

Runway natin.

Runway.

Ano palang update sa runway na yun?

I think it's already operational.

Pero naano ba siya? Talagang na-rehabilitate?

Yes. It could at least... Based sa mga visits. For example, visit ni Secretary Lorenzana.

And I think a number of... I'm teaching in the National Defense College.

So we have some... I forgot the specific term.

Where we send our students for a tour of Pag-asa Island.

So I think those have been happening.

Para immersion?

Exposure, I think.

Exposure trip. Okay.

Finally, Professor, ang tanong natin dito.

Are we... Do we have a better foreign policy now in terms of dealing with China under this administration?

I think it's more balanced.

Balanced by the fact that we have been improving our alliance and security partnership

with the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

I think it has, I would say, a more clear-eyed view of how we would achieve yun tinatawag natin independent foreign policy.

Kasi ayun nga yung explanation regarding independent foreign policy.

We took it from the Constitution.

The Constitution simply provides us a goal.

How we would achieve or reach that goal depends actually on your president.

The president has two functions according to the Constitution.

Number one, the architect of Philippine foreign policy.

And number two, of course, the top diplomat and the commander-in-chief of the Philippines.

President Duterte tried to achieve independent foreign policy from distancing us from the United States

and trying to effect a rapprochement with China.

Thinking that having a rapprochement with China, an appeasement with China would moderate Chinese behavior.

Unfortunately, that did not happen.

China became emboldened by our appeasement policy.

So in the latter years of the Duterte administration, he realized that China could not be appeased.

So next administration, probably this current administration has learned from the experience of the Duterte administration.

If you appease China, China would eat you alive and kicking.

So you have to be very careful with dealing with a raging and, of course, fire-breathing dragon.

So you have to protect yourself by, of course, putting on insulation in the form of strengthening your alliance with the United States.

And building up, last December, President Marcos announced that he will fund the third phase or the third horizon of the modernization program of the AFP.

The important thing about the AFP is China is taking us for granted simply because of the fact that China knows we are not armed and we lack political will.

Yes, and a different policy per administration.

China has always been consistent. That's what I can say about China.

They already know the weakness of our political system.

Well, thank you very much Professor Renato de Castro for another insightful interview.

Those who are listening to us are happy.

Thank you very much, sir.

Thank you very much for bringing me here.

I am at your beck and call.

You're a colleague of my wife.

Because Professor de Castro's wife is my co-teacher.

But I don't even want to hazard to say co-teacher because she's a senior.

She already considers you as a colleague, a highly esteemed colleague who has principles in life.

Your wife is a big time historian.

Professor de Castro's wife is a historian.

Okay sir. Thank you very much.

In regards to your family.

See you again, sir. Thank you.

Okay.

Professor Renato de Castro, our guest.

I hope you will add more knowledge about the issue of the South China Sea.

The so-called appeasement policy, if we know our history, we know that it is not really appeasement.

We saw that in the Second World War.

You know what happened. They appeased the monster who only became an even bigger monster.

Of course, it was Hitler.

I'm not saying that Hitler is China now.

But we're saying that it's an appeasement policy.

We know that it doesn't work.

And in the last administration, well, there were a lot of apologies from President Duterte at that time.

Even other analysts were saying that they're smart.

They were saying that the Duterte administration was too strict on China at that time.

And the company said that he would ride a jet ski and plant the Philippine flag there.

And then he would offer his life in defense of the Philippines.

And that's what happened.

Why? For the greater part of the Duterte administration, it was all about appeasement.

It was all about defending China that we saw.

Of course, others will say that he doesn't want to go to war.

I just want to make it clear to those who embrace that kind of mentality that is very simplistic.

We're not saying that President Duterte should be more assertive in the rights of the Philippines

in our exclusive economic zone, which is the West Philippine Sea.

We're not saying that we want to fight in China because in between peace and war,

there are still a lot of options when it comes to diplomacy.

So don't believe those non-sense trolls who say that if you say,

defend China, it doesn't mean war.

Don't believe those crazy people who say that because there are a lot of options in between.

We don't need to reach an armed conflict with China.

We can do a lot of things in terms of asserting our rights.

If you look at it, let's take advantage of this also.

In July 2016, the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration came out.

This is the PCA.

This is where the Philippines fell in 2012 to question that arbitral tribunal.

Wait, once and for all, it clarified what are our rights here in the West Philippine Sea.

Again, that ruling that came out in July 2016, it doesn't say that.

It doesn't settle the territorial conflict or claims among those claiming parts of the South China Sea,

including the Philippines and China.

What that ruling says, it clarifies who has the right to what.

So the Philippines' right to what is clear when it comes to our 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone.

This is the part that we call the West Philippine Sea.

No country has the right to encroach there, including China.

They can go there, freedom of navigation, but they can't get resources there.

We are the only ones who have the right to those resources.

And that is called sovereign rights.

The question is, why is this Ayungin Shoal included in our exclusive economic zone?

Why do we have a hard time getting close to it?

Because we have BRP Sierra Madre.

Just google it, it's a rock that doesn't move.

It can be used as a Navy vessel.

But it's barred because it's strategic.

Because it's still in the active fleet of the Philippine Navy.

So if someone moves there, that's a problem.

So it's strategic there.

But there are up to 10 military personnel rotating in that area.

Then periodically, they are being sent supplies.

That's what's called the resupply mission.

But that resupply mission is really what China is making us struggle for.

So that the supplies can reach there.

Food, and other necessities.

So you can't avoid it, right?

It's an exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.

We have sovereign rights over that, but we are being made to struggle by China.

Then what's the basis?

Why is that part of China being claimed?

What China is saying is that they have a 9-dash line.

This is their doctrine.

And it's also being taught in their schools, right?

Let's go back to the PCA ruling 2016.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling says that there is no basis.

In short, there is no basis.

The 9-dash line.

China's doctrine or claim.

And it can't be used to claim around 85% of the entire South China Sea.

So in short, the claim of China is not valid.

The question is, why are they still struggling in this place?

Because it's also lacking in, of course, a big country.

It has all the resources.

It has a Navy and Coast Guard fleet that can go around, right?

Then they built military installations in some parts of the South China Sea, right?

They made an artificial island and put military facilities in it, right?

So that's what's happening.

And others have really encroached on the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.

Or they're doing it because they're bullies and they have resources.

We, of course, are saying in one of our speeches by Justice Carpio,

right is might, right?

Here, what China is doing, might is right.

That's why the approach of our current government should be proper.

And to be fair, to the Marcos Jr. administration,

we're seeing a lot of promising signals when it comes to dealing with China over this dispute, right?

Because a lot of our opportunities are gone.

A lot of openings are gone during the previous administration.

And we have to make up for that, right?

We have to make up for lost time.

And again, to be fair to President Marcos,

he's doing the right things, pushing the right buttons when it comes to dealing with China.

He's not saying there will be a war, right?

Engagement should still be there.

Engagement should still be there when it comes to the economy.

But when it comes to bullying in South China Sea, in the West Philippine Sea,

our red lines should be clear.

There should be no hesitation, no gossip, no appeasement to China,

just like what we saw in the previous administration.

Okay.

Shout-out to Rosana Narumi.

Good evening, Sir Christian.

Shout-out to Tindig Pinoy Japan 2023.

Thank you so much for watching.

Thank you so much to Rosana Narumi.

Who else?

Let's be fair here.

Johnny said, I'm not a BBM supporter, but I agree with his international policy.

Well, that's right.

The policy he made in the last administration is so forgettable.

That's why what we're seeing is good.

At least so far, what President Marcos is doing is good

when it comes to dealing with China.

There.

Andrea is also getting a shout-out.

Sorry, I'll get closer to the screen.

There.

Jun Sim, watching from Japan.

We have a lot of viewers in Japan right now.

There.

Norberto Del Mundo,

Jossu Hernandez, watching from Canada and USA.

Hey, you're in two places.

That's hard.

You're teleporting.

Sir Raquel Pangilinan Blantucas.

Am I not on Facebook right now?

I'm there.

Oh, is that so?

Oh, because I advanced the time.

Oh, I'm sorry.

Delayed.

Because we were supposed to start at 7.30,

but our guest was a bit late.

So I made it 7.35.

Oh, did I go crazy?

I'm sorry.

Wait, I'm just checking our Facebook.

There.

There it is.

There.

There it is.

You guys are really something.

I got nervous there.

There.

Oh, by the way, on Friday,

we'll talk about something good.

There's a new topic

on Panatamakabayan.

We'll talk about Panatamakabayan on Friday,

among other topics.

We have an invited historian.

We'll talk to him.

Do you still remember Panatamakabayan?

To my generation, to my batch,

do you still remember the

worship that we do every day

in our school, in the flag ceremony?

There.

We'll talk about that.

How crucial was the decision

of the Department of Education

to change a word

to Panatamakabayan?

Jonathan.

Jonathan Trinidad.

There.

I hope you understand the issue

in the South China Sea.

We have a lot of smart trolls there.

Legal, mental,

and illogical calisthenics

are used to justify

the appeasement policy

of the previous administration.

In other words,

there are no boundaries when it comes to gossip.

Because if they want to gossip,

they have to defend

what's wrong and what's right.

What's right will be overturned.

Okay. Thank you very much.

See you again on Friday.

And again, to those listening

to our podcast,

thank you very much.

I hope you enjoyed this episode.

Whatever you're doing,

jogging, bathing, eating,

thank you very much.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Again, thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

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