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WHY PHILIPPINES NEEDS A STRONG MILITARY!
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Richard Heydarian VLOGS
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Run time: 32:13
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00:00.0
Yan mga kameta, kamusta kayo dyan?
00:05.0
Sabi ko mag catch up tayo konti
00:07.0
Ayan, nagkunting break tayo
00:09.0
Pag-usapan natin, ituloy natin yung mga discussion natin kapan
00:13.0
Mga kameta, I hope my internet is ok
00:16.0
Wala, walang load yung isang mas matinigong phone
00:20.0
At tayo pa medyo parang naggumamit ng mga wifi kung saan saan
00:24.0
Kung hindi tayo to completely sure dun sa siguridad niya
00:27.0
So I'm just using itong mas lumang phone natin
00:29.0
I hope the visuals and the audio is not too bad
00:32.0
And the connection is not too bad
00:33.0
Anyway mga kameta, gusto lang natin ituloy yung mga discussion natin kahapon
00:37.0
Because interestingly, kagabi no
00:40.0
Habang nagba Valentine's Day
00:42.0
Hopefully you folks had a good Valentine's
00:44.0
Habang nagba Valentine's Day yung iba
00:46.0
Habang daming hanash at halipad
00:49.0
At yung iba, tayo po ituloy-tuloy yung mga discussions online
00:54.0
So isang interesting discussion nang niyari kapan mga kameta is
00:59.0
Walang sound?
01:01.0
May sound ba?
01:06.0
Baka fake news ka Mike
01:08.0
May sound ba po tayo?
01:14.0
Anyway, ituloy natin yung discussion natin kapan
01:17.0
Ay naku Mike, baka fake news ka
01:19.0
Ikaw lang ang nagsabi ng sound
01:21.0
Tingnan natin yung baka walang sound
01:23.0
Ayan talaga
01:24.0
Ayan mga kameta
01:26.0
Sige, lakasan natin
01:28.0
Dito-dito kahapon mga kameta
01:32.0
Kagabi
01:34.0
Habang ano
01:36.0
Bago tayo matulog
01:37.0
Meron tayong biglang kadabati dyan sa Twitter
01:40.0
Alam mo naman tayo, very provocative tayo mag-tweet
01:42.0
But that's precisely the point, to provoke discussions and all
01:45.0
Obviously that also exposes you to a lot of criticisms and backlash, etc.
01:49.0
Both sides
01:51.0
Ina-atake tayo ng mga katatay
01:53.0
Ina-atake din tayo ng mga hardcore gilawan
01:56.0
Pag hindi ko napinapansin yung may iba
01:58.0
Medyo...
02:00.0
Medyo ano naman tayo
02:02.0
Medyo...
02:03.0
Focus naman tayo
02:04.0
Eye on the ball
02:05.0
Anyway, sorry
02:06.0
I'm just seeing all of these messages coming in from editors and all
02:09.0
Balikan ko kayo mamaya
02:13.0
So one interesting discussion we had was with one Teddy
02:16.0
That apparently didn't block me
02:18.0
Kasi si Teddy Luxin
02:20.0
Wala, talagang nablock na talaga tayo ng...
02:24.0
Nablock na tayo ng...
02:26.0
Teddy Luxin na yan
02:30.0
Gini-check ko, hindi, wala pa rin
02:32.0
Talaga nablock tayo
02:33.0
Hindi ko alam ba tayo nablock
02:35.0
I never directly engaged that guy
02:36.0
Once actually, he tried to troll me online
02:38.0
I mean, we met each other when we were working ABS-CBN together
02:41.0
But, you know, he's just a polite person
02:43.0
I'm a super gentleman person so walang issue
02:45.0
But online, there was once na parang umepal lang siya
02:48.0
You know, the media quoted me on something I said on West Philippines
02:52.0
Si South China Sea
02:53.0
Among many things that I got completely right about
02:55.0
Where the third was going wrong
02:57.0
And then parang comment niya medyo yabang
02:59.0
Sino yan? Parang ganun lang
03:01.0
I know, alam ko kilala niya ako
03:04.0
Because we were together in 2016
03:06.0
Plus 2017 and 2018
03:07.0
Sabihin niya sino yan, diba?
03:08.0
2016, we were together actually in the same panarejo
03:11.0
And he was over-talking and trying to dominate the conversation and all
03:15.0
And ako naman, in the spirit of being nice and all
03:17.0
Hindi ko, parang sige, pagbigyan ko na lang ito
03:20.0
Anyway, let him have his moment
03:22.0
But, obviously, I'm a person who let things slide once
03:27.0
But, you know
03:28.0
Anyway, hindi naman ito
03:30.0
But this is not that he looks in
03:32.0
Forget about that guy
03:33.0
Hindi ko alam what's happened with him
03:34.0
Ang ambassador na ba sa UK yan?
03:36.0
Anyway, hopefully one day he'll come up with really the time and focus
03:40.0
And, you know, attention and energy and intelligence
03:42.0
To really finish a proper book
03:44.0
And really serious intellectual work, you know?
03:46.0
And then, probably, we can have a discussion about his merits
03:50.0
Now, going back to this
03:52.0
Mamaya na ako mag-
03:54.0
Mag-
03:56.0
Pardagulan
03:58.0
Anyway, going back to this
03:59.0
So, yung isang Teddy na naipag-debate sa atin
04:02.0
Ay si Teddy Casino, of course
04:04.0
He's, of course, a progressive person
04:06.0
You know, with an intellectual bent and all
04:09.0
And so, we had a back and forth kagabi on Twitter
04:12.0
And that was interesting
04:13.0
Apparently, Teddy Luxem did not block Teddy Casino
04:16.0
Because I saw Teddy Casino quoting for Teddy Luxem
04:18.0
So, baka solidarity yan ng mga Teddy
04:20.0
Anyway, balikan natin yan
04:22.0
O, mamaya na yung mga Quantumverse na Ant-Man
04:26.0
Papanuri natin yan
04:27.0
Baka matuba tayo kay Magellan
04:29.0
Let's go back to this
04:30.0
Huwag kayo magulo
04:31.0
Now, going back to this
04:33.0
We had some back and forth discussion about this issue of ETCA and BBM, etc.
04:37.0
Now, ganito kasi, mga kamaneta
04:40.0
One of the weird things that we noticed right now
04:42.0
Is that there's almost like a convergence of view
04:45.0
Between mga ka-SMNI, katatay
04:49.0
At mga, alam mo naman, I love China type of people on one hand
04:53.0
And then yung mga so-called progressives
04:56.0
Or self-described progressives and patriots, etc.
05:00.0
On this issue of ETCA and all
05:02.0
So, what's very interesting mga kamaneta
05:04.0
Is that both of them are essentially attacking BBM
05:07.0
By saying BBM is dragging us into a war
05:10.0
Or a conflict like that
05:12.0
Or at the very least BBM is undermining
05:14.0
Supposedly our territorial integrity or sovereignty
05:18.0
By granting Americans more basic and military access
05:21.0
Now, ibang usapan pa yung potential basic access
05:24.0
Between Japan and the Philippines
05:25.0
That's also going to create a lot of complications of its own
05:28.0
And that's something that I'm writing on
05:31.0
A number of stuff I'm working on
05:33.0
About the potential visiting forces agreement
05:35.0
Between Philippines and Japanese self-defense forces
05:38.0
Now, going back to this
05:39.0
In fairness naman, may mga iba dyan
05:42.0
Na parang it's not worth responding to
05:44.0
And you know that they're just completely
05:46.0
Doctrinal about it
05:47.0
Or they're just, you know, worse
05:50.0
Alam nyo na akong nagt-dodds
05:52.0
But in fairness, this discussion with David Casino
05:54.0
I really appreciate it
05:55.0
Because I think it's the kind of debate
05:58.0
And discussion we need to have
06:00.0
So, let me just be absolutely clear
06:04.0
First of all, I'm not comfortable with our country
06:08.0
Being dependent on any other power
06:10.0
When it comes to our national defense
06:12.0
Right?
06:13.0
Let's be absolutely clear about that
06:15.0
And at the same time, huwag gawin tayong bulag-bulagan
06:17.0
Many really wrong things happened
06:21.0
When we had massive foreign military presence in the Philippines
06:24.0
I'm not talking about Second World War
06:26.0
And all of your total invasion and all
06:28.0
I'm also talking about, for instance
06:31.0
Yung mga nangyari, mga human rights violations
06:34.0
Crimes, sexual abuse
06:36.0
Among others, against sa ating mga kababayan
06:38.0
By visiting foreign troops
06:40.0
You can connect the dots
06:41.0
So we have had many cases of alleged or proven
06:44.0
Rape and murder of Filipino citizens
06:47.0
By visiting forces
06:49.0
So we have very, very bad cases
06:52.0
Warring cases there
06:53.0
So I'm also not comfortable with having
06:55.0
Huge military bases in certain areas
06:57.0
Because it can create a lot of problems
06:59.0
So if you go to Japan, for instance
07:00.0
In Okinawa, maraming protests with regards to that
07:03.0
Against the presence of US bases
07:05.0
In the Philippines also
07:06.0
We had to deal with a lot of these
07:08.0
Unfortunate incidents and tragedies
07:12.0
Now, tanayin nyo na si Tatay Dicong
07:14.0
Bakit pinalay yung isang American soldier
07:16.0
Na convict dun sa
07:20.0
Alam mo naman, kay Jennifer Laude case, diba?
07:23.0
Or tanayin nyo si Harry Rauche
07:27.0
Diba, to explain that
07:28.0
Our Mr. Human Rights, Mr. Anti-VFA
07:31.0
To explain that situation
07:34.0
Now, going back to this, mga kamayta
07:37.0
So let me also be very clear about it
07:39.0
Number three
07:41.0
So two things
07:42.0
First of all, I'm not comfortable with
07:44.0
Dependence on foreign powers
07:45.0
Second, we have to acknowledge that
07:47.0
There were things that really went wrong
07:49.0
When we had foreign troop presence in the Philippines
07:52.0
And third, we also have to acknowledge
07:55.0
That talagang magkakulangan
07:57.0
Yung alliance natin with America
07:59.0
In the past, in terms of protecting
08:01.0
Helping us to protect our interests
08:03.0
So for instance, nung nangyari yung
08:05.0
Scarboreo Crisis
08:06.0
Hindi talaga tayo tinulungan ng America nun
08:09.0
This is pano ni Obama
08:11.0
So we have to acknowledge
08:13.0
These multiple layers
08:15.0
Now, having said that mga kamayta
08:19.0
So what is the way forward?
08:21.0
The way forward is ultimately for the Philippines
08:23.0
To develop its own defensive capabilities
08:25.0
To have what we call
08:27.0
Minimum deterrence capability
08:30.0
Ina-explain natin nyo mga kamayta
08:32.0
It's like becoming like a porcupine
08:34.0
Right?
08:35.0
Parang may tetanong yung mga spikes mo
08:37.0
Para hindi ka bubuli ng mas malalaking mga predators
08:41.0
So that's definitely the goal
08:44.0
But this is the unfortunate reality
08:46.0
And there's a little bit of a chicken-egg element to it
08:48.0
But the unfortunate reality is that
08:50.0
Because we have had a long history of
08:52.0
Strategic dependence on the US
08:53.0
And a long history of corruption
08:55.0
Within our state institutions
08:56.0
Including the military institutions and all
08:58.0
Hindi natin na-develop talaga yung ating
09:00.0
Standard taong lakas
09:01.0
So the reality is that
09:02.0
We're operating from a very low base
09:04.0
Thanks to President Aquino
09:06.0
We started to modernize our AFB
09:09.0
Back in 2012
09:10.0
Allocated I think
09:11.0
1.6 to 2 billion dollars
09:14.0
For initial acquisitions
09:15.0
That got us F-15 fighters
09:17.0
But those are not real fighters
09:18.0
They're upgraded trainer fighters from Korea
09:21.0
So we still don't have real fighters
09:23.0
Not even the more upgraded versions of F-15 and F-16
09:27.0
Which by the way are increasingly obsolete
09:29.0
Now I don't know kung nanat kayong top gun and all
09:31.0
I think they use an F-18 fighter for that
09:33.0
But these fighters are going to be increasingly
09:35.0
No much for 4.5th generation and 5th generation stealth fighters
09:39.0
Including F-22 na ginami to shut down the Chinese balloons
09:43.0
And I don't know what other UFO they were shooting down
09:45.0
Over the skies of Canada and the US
09:47.0
Now that's one thing that is important to keep in mind
09:50.0
But at least we got back to supersonic stage
09:53.0
And at the same time
09:55.0
Piniprepare natin yung ating Air Force
09:58.0
To operate more sophisticated weapon systems
10:01.0
No aircrafts and all
10:02.0
We also got a number of frigates
10:04.0
Including refurbished ones
10:07.0
But also more newer versions
10:09.0
Including with Samsung and some counterparts in Korea
10:13.0
We're also getting some missile systems
10:16.0
Including the supersonic Brahmos missile system
10:19.0
Which is an Indian-Russian technology
10:21.0
And we're hoping to move towards hypersonic missile systems
10:24.0
So unti-unti mga kameta
10:26.0
Since 2012, the Philippines has been moving towards
10:30.0
Developing minimum deterrence capability
10:33.0
So we're now supposed to be in phase 3
10:35.0
Because that was a 15-year modernization program
10:38.0
Papunta na tayo sa phase 3
10:40.0
Nagsimula na ng 2012 is 2023
10:42.0
So it's more than 10 years now
10:45.0
So we're supposed to move to phase 3
10:47.0
But the reality is that doon sa phase 2
10:49.0
Nakaroon tayo ng problema
10:50.0
With funding, with pandemic
10:52.0
With some acquisition issues
10:54.0
So yung horizon to our phase 2
10:56.0
Of revised AFE modernization act implementation
10:58.0
Has been quite delayed
11:00.0
But we're looking at acquisition of
11:03.0
Advanced fighter jets, real fighter jets
11:05.0
And potentially even submarines
11:07.0
And more sophisticated missile defense systems
11:09.0
In the coming years
11:10.0
Or at least yun ang dapat duwin natin
11:12.0
So that's gonna take time mga kameta
11:15.0
And while we're catching up with our own objectives
11:18.0
In terms of AFE modernization
11:20.0
China is moving ahead leaps and bounds
11:24.0
In terms of both their asymmetrical
11:27.0
And conventional military capabilities
11:31.0
So behind schedule tayo
11:34.0
But I think we have to continue doing that
11:36.0
So on one hand we have to develop our own capabilities
11:39.0
But it's gonna take time
11:40.0
And since we operated from a very low base
11:43.0
Super nasa catch-up mode tayo mga kameta
11:45.0
That means in the meantime
11:47.0
We are vulnerable to predation
11:49.0
And that's exactly what we have seen
11:51.0
Over the past 3 decades
11:53.0
Beginning with the fact that
11:55.0
Once the US bases left the Philippines in 1992
11:58.0
Within 2 years or so
11:59.0
The Chinese took over Michifree
12:01.0
Now it is true that
12:03.0
The Philippine-US alliance did not prevent
12:05.0
The loss of Scarborough Shoal
12:07.0
But what critics also forget
12:09.0
Is that the United States changed its policy position
12:12.0
By 2018 and 2019
12:14.0
So much so that it became very clear
12:17.0
I'll post to you guys in articles and all
12:19.0
The policy position change
12:21.0
Or rather clarification of the policy position
12:24.0
Or rather a shift in the posture
12:28.0
Towards implementation of the key provisions of the MDT
12:31.0
Anyway
12:32.0
This is where I think President Duterte
12:34.0
Did some good things
12:36.0
Or to be more particular
12:37.0
I think Secretary Lorenzano
12:39.0
Our former Defense Secretary
12:40.0
Did some good things
12:42.0
By pressuring Americans to be much more committed
12:46.0
To us in terms of our alliance
12:47.0
So in 2019
12:49.0
America clarified
12:51.0
For the first time in public
12:53.0
And at the cabinet level
12:55.0
We're talking about the former Secretary of State of the US
12:57.0
They clarified
12:59.0
That under the Mutual Defense Treaty of the Philippines
13:02.0
If our troops, our aircrafts, and our vessels
13:06.0
Come under attack
13:07.0
Automatically the Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines will apply
13:10.0
That kind of clarification was not present
13:13.0
From the Nixon administration
13:17.0
To the Carter administration
13:19.0
To the two Bush administrations
13:22.0
Clinton administration
13:23.0
All the way to Obama
13:25.0
It was ambiguous
13:27.0
They adopted the policy of so-called strategic ambiguity
13:30.0
But for me honestly
13:31.0
That was not strategic ambiguity
13:33.0
That was just ambiguity for the sake of not getting entangled
13:36.0
By the Philippines' claims in the area
13:39.0
Or in short
13:40.0
America wanted an open relationship with us in that time
13:43.0
So what we did was we pressured the Americans
13:46.0
And we partly have to thank the previous administration
13:49.0
Including Secretary Lorenzana especially
13:52.0
For pressuring the Americans to be more helpful to us
13:55.0
Now it's not also what we did
13:57.0
It's also that America itself realized
13:59.0
They cannot be non-committal on a lot of important issues
14:03.0
Including the future of the Philippines
14:05.0
Because that also had implications for perceptions of the US
14:08.0
As a reliable ally
14:10.0
Including from countries like Taiwan
14:12.0
Which are not even a treaty ally of the US
14:14.0
But are expecting the US to somehow be a robust partner
14:18.0
In preventing an invasion of the self-ruling democratic island
14:21.0
And of course other allies like Japan, Australia
14:24.0
Like treaty allies like Japan, Australia and others
14:26.0
We're also wondering what's going on with the United States
14:28.0
So we see that in 2018-19
14:30.0
The US becomes much more confrontational towards China
14:36.0
In ways Obama never was
14:38.0
In ways Nixon never was
14:40.0
In ways Clinton never was
14:42.0
Because Clinton, Nixon, Obama, all of them
14:44.0
Especially from Nixon to Clinton
14:46.0
The US wanted to engage China as a kind of international partner
14:50.0
As a supposed responsible stakeholder
14:53.0
And at that time Bush was so bogged down in the Middle East
14:55.0
He was in no position to really confront China
14:57.0
Deal with China in a serious way
14:59.0
That's why Farid Zakari wrote the book
15:02.0
The Post-American World
15:04.0
The US was so bogged down in the Middle East
15:06.0
With those ridiculous dumb wars
15:08.0
China was just moving up the ladder
15:12.0
That's why the rise of the rest
15:14.0
Anyway, so things actually changed
15:17.0
And just as I predicted
15:19.0
Also correctly, the Biden administration
15:21.0
Will adopt the Trump administration's China policy
15:25.0
But with better tactics
15:27.0
Much more refined approach
15:29.0
So if you look at the Biden administration
15:31.0
It's just as aggressive towards China
15:33.0
And we see that in terms of
15:35.0
How do you measure that?
15:36.0
What are the indicators?
15:38.0
More and expanded
15:40.0
Freedom of navigation operations in the West Philippine Sea
15:43.0
America is sending big warships
15:45.0
Sometimes even two
15:47.0
To challenge China's claims over fake islands
15:50.0
More than that
15:52.0
The United States has also imposed
15:54.0
Very stringent sanctions on
15:56.0
The high-tech sector of China
15:58.0
That's happening under Biden by the way
16:00.0
Trump kind of got it started
16:02.0
But it's really Biden who's going all the way on this
16:04.0
And then we saw also the Biden administration
16:07.0
Early on, Blinken, Secretary of State Blinken
16:10.0
Called his counterpart
16:12.0
Speaking of Teddy Loxson, long time na yan
16:14.0
He also reiterated that the US
16:16.0
Will come to the Philippines' rescue
16:18.0
Should a third party, you know who
16:22.0
Attack our vessels, aircrafts, or personnel
16:25.0
In the West Philippine Sea
16:26.0
Very particular, West Philippine Sea
16:28.0
No other previous American administration
16:30.0
Was so specific, so public
16:32.0
And at such a high level
16:33.0
In terms of clarifying the parameters
16:35.0
Of the mutual defense treaty
16:36.0
This should be absolutely clear
16:38.0
So this is the problem I have
16:40.0
With the law of critics
16:41.0
Either they're misinformed
16:43.0
Either they're not researching properly
16:45.0
Either they're being too ideological about this
16:47.0
Or worse
16:49.0
So on one hand
16:51.0
Since 2012, the Philippines is slowly
16:53.0
Building on its own capabilities
16:55.0
Partly due to the tragedy
16:57.0
That happened in Scarborough Shoal
16:58.0
At the same time, since 2018 and 2019
17:00.0
We see the Americans
17:01.0
Are becoming much confrontational
17:03.0
Towards China
17:04.0
And much more directly helpful
17:05.0
To the Philippines
17:06.0
And much more reassuring
17:07.0
So these two things are coming together
17:09.0
And this is where the ETCA comes in
17:12.0
Because, mga kameta
17:13.0
The reason ETCA was being negotiated
17:15.0
By the Aquino administration
17:17.0
Right?
17:18.0
Remember, this was being negotiated
17:20.0
After the Scarborough Shoal
17:21.0
Because we recognized that we needed
17:23.0
A derivative, a corollary
17:25.0
A supplementary defense deal
17:27.0
To make sure that the Americans
17:29.0
Are more helpful to the Philippines
17:30.0
In dealing with the West Philippines issue
17:32.0
And in particular
17:33.0
The ETCA, mga kameta
17:35.0
In fact, if you look at the initial negotiations
17:37.0
Vis-a-vis ETCA
17:38.0
The Philippines was pushing America
17:39.0
To even lease to us
17:40.0
Some of their submarines
17:41.0
Frigates
17:42.0
And weapons systems
17:43.0
And the U.S. kind of said no
17:44.0
But in the end
17:45.0
A kind of compromise came out
17:47.0
I have my issues with how it was negotiated
17:49.0
I have some of my own reservations with ETCA
17:51.0
And the circumstances of it
17:53.0
Kind of from a position of desperation
17:54.0
That we're negotiating
17:56.0
I have some serious issues about that
17:58.0
But
17:59.0
In the end, the point was
18:00.0
ETCA will be a specific
18:02.0
Kind of a derivative
18:04.0
Of the mutual defense treaty
18:05.0
Between the Philippines and the United States
18:06.0
That will directly deal
18:08.0
With the West Philippines issue
18:09.0
By granting Pentagon
18:11.0
Forward deployment presence
18:12.0
To bases close to the West Philippine Sea
18:14.0
So you're talking about
18:15.0
Bautista Urbe
18:16.0
Sa Palawan
18:17.0
Malapit sa Calayan Group of Islands
18:18.0
Basta Urbe sa Pampanga
18:20.0
Malapit sa Scarborough Shoal
18:22.0
And by expanding America's
18:23.0
Forward deployment presence
18:25.0
To rotational access
18:26.0
Which is not unconstitutional
18:28.0
Kaya nga naaproba
18:29.0
Ng ating Supreme Court
18:31.0
Yung ETCA
18:32.0
So there's no legal constitutional issues
18:34.0
Anymore with it
18:36.0
So to expand it
18:37.0
To the American presence
18:38.0
And allow America's
18:39.0
Preposition weapon systems
18:40.0
To be able to
18:42.0
Respond right away to a crisis
18:43.0
That way we can
18:45.0
Deter further Chinese expansion
18:47.0
Within Philippine claim borders
18:49.0
Or yung tinatawag natin na
18:50.0
West Philippine Sea
18:52.0
Eh ang problema
18:53.0
Si Paolo Ndigong
18:54.0
Because gusto niya
18:55.0
Magbag-friendship
18:56.0
Beshi sa China
18:57.0
Hindi niya pina
18:58.0
Fully implement
18:59.0
Fully implement yung ETCA
19:01.0
So dinidribble niya
19:02.0
Hapiyaw-hapiyaw
19:04.0
So ETCA was not really
19:05.0
Fully implemented
19:08.0
During the Duterte administration
19:09.0
That's why the term
19:10.0
That the US used
19:11.0
Earlier this month
19:12.0
Was finally now
19:13.0
There'll be a full implementation
19:15.0
Of ETCA
19:16.0
But not only full implementation
19:17.0
Of ETCA
19:18.0
But expansion of the parameters
19:20.0
Of ETCA
19:21.0
Including the bases
19:22.0
That will be provided
19:23.0
To the Americans
19:24.0
Now
19:25.0
So if you look at it
19:26.0
Mga kameta
19:27.0
I'm just explaining to you
19:28.0
Why ETCA
19:30.0
Was important to the Philippines
19:32.0
Back then
19:33.0
Or we thought it's important
19:34.0
And you can clearly see
19:35.0
Also my cost
19:36.0
Of ETCA not being implemented
19:38.0
Under Duterte
19:39.0
Because it weakened
19:40.0
Our position in the
19:41.0
West Philippine Sea
19:42.0
And look at it
19:43.0
Past six years
19:44.0
Clearly showed us
19:45.0
That the Tatay way
19:46.0
Of doing things
19:47.0
Which is let's be nice
19:48.0
To those who bully us
19:49.0
And then let's expect
19:50.0
Concessions and
19:51.0
Mercy from them
19:52.0
You know
19:53.0
To quote the president
19:54.0
You know
19:55.0
Be nice to them
19:56.0
They'll be merciful
19:57.0
It didn't work
19:58.0
Because nangyaring
19:59.0
Reebank
20:00.0
Nangyaring Whitsun Reef
20:01.0
Lumalai yung situation
20:02.0
Last year we filed
20:03.0
Close to 200 note verbals
20:04.0
Note verbals
20:06.0
So all of this shows
20:07.0
That the bullying
20:08.0
Continues
20:09.0
There in the
20:10.0
West Philippine Sea
20:11.0
And at the same time
20:12.0
Sabi ko na naman
20:13.0
Na-predict naman natin yan
20:14.0
Hindi mangyari yung
20:15.0
Debt trap
20:16.0
Mali yung mga opposition
20:17.0
Mali din yung government
20:19.0
Because wala talaga
20:20.0
Investments na dumating
20:21.0
Zero
20:22.0
Zero real
20:23.0
Big-ticket infrastructure
20:24.0
Investments
20:25.0
There were investments
20:26.0
Kaya capital in
20:27.0
Sure
20:28.0
Including yung Pogo
20:29.0
Right
20:30.0
Hmm
20:31.0
Baka maaana na naman tayo dyan
20:32.0
But
20:33.0
But no real
20:34.0
Big-ticket infrastructure
20:35.0
Projects
20:36.0
All the 24 billion
20:37.0
Blah blah blah
20:38.0
Really not much came in
20:39.0
No
20:40.0
So what I'm saying here
20:41.0
Mga ka-meta is
20:42.0
What Marcos Jimenez
20:43.0
Is trying to do is
20:44.0
This
20:45.0
Diba sabi nga ni Einstein
20:46.0
Hindi ko sinasabi
20:47.0
Si Magellan Jr. Einstein
20:52.0
Sabi niya Einstein
20:53.0
Parang
20:54.0
Ang definition ng
20:55.0
Ang diba
20:56.0
Mucho loko
20:57.0
Of insanity is
20:58.0
If you keep on doing the same thing
20:59.0
Expecting different results
21:00.0
So obviously
21:01.0
The Tata way of doing things
21:02.0
Was not working
21:03.0
So you have to try
21:04.0
A different thing
21:05.0
So that's why
21:06.0
Marcos moved ahead
21:07.0
With implementation of ETCA
21:08.0
Now
21:09.0
Where things get
21:10.0
A little bit tricky for me
21:11.0
And this is where
21:12.0
I appreciate
21:13.0
Quite a lot
21:14.0
Of people
21:15.0
Who are
21:16.0
I appreciate
21:17.0
Correction of
21:18.0
Tata Digong's
21:19.0
Mistakes
21:20.0
Because he was
21:21.0
A new fight
21:22.0
Really in foreign policy
21:23.0
Geopolitics
21:24.0
Pang barangay chairman
21:25.0
Lang ng geopolitics nga
21:26.0
War agad diba
21:27.0
Wala kasi siyang
21:28.0
May pakitang gains
21:29.0
Dun sa kanyang
21:30.0
Pro-China policy
21:31.0
Kaya
21:32.0
Dinadaan na lang
21:33.0
Sa warmongering
21:34.0
Fearmongering
21:35.0
So
21:36.0
War agad diba
21:37.0
Parang as if naman
21:38.0
China just
21:39.0
Ganyan lang China
21:40.0
Even Russia
21:41.0
Was not
21:42.0
As bad
21:43.0
Although of course
21:44.0
Eventually they invaded Ukraine
21:45.0
But there were
21:46.0
So many phases
21:47.0
Before they went
21:48.0
For full-scale war
21:49.0
Remember
21:50.0
The harassment of Ukraine
21:51.0
Started in 2014 pa
21:52.0
Diba
21:53.0
With Crimea situation
21:54.0
So it took them
21:55.0
Long time from Crimea
21:56.0
To a full-scale invasion
21:57.0
China is not even
21:58.0
At the Crimea level
21:59.0
With us
22:00.0
Alright
22:01.0
So let's be very clear about it
22:02.0
And China is not Russia
22:03.0
Their risk capita
22:04.0
Is different
22:05.0
Their status to power
22:06.0
Their rising power
22:07.0
They have no reason
22:08.0
To be as aggressive
22:09.0
As Russia
22:10.0
Anyway
22:11.0
Going back to this
22:12.0
I'm just saying
22:13.0
Huwag na makanig dun
22:14.0
Anong geopolitics
22:15.0
Let's talk about
22:16.0
Real geopolitics
22:17.0
Let's talk about
22:18.0
Sophisticated statecraft
22:19.0
No?
22:20.0
Which China has
22:21.0
To a great degree
22:22.0
Now
22:23.0
Where I am not
22:25.0
100% sure
22:27.0
Is
22:28.0
Anong exactly
22:29.0
Yung mga bases
22:30.0
Na ino-open sa US
22:31.0
Dun sa
22:32.0
4 additional ones
22:33.0
Kasama ba dyan yung
22:34.0
Sa Mavuli, San Fuga
22:35.0
Or if ever
22:36.0
Those places will be
22:37.0
Open up to US
22:38.0
In an event of contingency
22:39.0
In Taiwan
22:40.0
So
22:41.0
In principle
22:42.0
I see
22:43.0
And I've argued
22:44.0
This
22:45.0
That
22:46.0
If you strengthen
22:47.0
Philippine-US alliance
22:48.0
You may actually
22:49.0
Deter and prevent
22:50.0
Conflict
22:51.0
Because you raise
22:52.0
The cost of
22:53.0
Invasion of Taiwan
22:54.0
So you create
22:55.0
More chances
22:56.0
For peace
22:57.0
By being strong
22:58.0
Than the other
22:59.0
Way around
23:00.0
So the argument
23:01.0
That
23:02.0
Automatically
23:03.0
By more US presence
23:04.0
There'll be war
23:05.0
It's kind of
23:06.0
It's kind of
23:07.0
Amateuris pang barangay
23:08.0
Because it forgets
23:09.0
The value of
23:10.0
Deterrence
23:11.0
And preparation
23:12.0
And as President
23:13.0
Marcos kind of
23:14.0
Correctly said
23:15.0
If war is about
23:16.0
To happen
23:17.0
Might as well
23:18.0
Be prepared for it
23:19.0
Because
23:20.0
Matadamay talagang
23:21.0
Pilipinas
23:22.0
And as a US treaty
23:23.0
Ally
23:24.0
We're going to
23:25.0
Always be kind of
23:26.0
A target
23:27.0
Anyway
23:28.0
So better prepare for it
23:29.0
And prevent it
23:30.0
By show of strength
23:31.0
Right
23:32.0
Than just
23:33.0
Waiting for Armageddon
23:34.0
Right
23:35.0
So that's kind of
23:36.0
The logic here
23:37.0
Nonetheless
23:38.0
Since we still
23:39.0
Don't have full details
23:40.0
And I don't know
23:41.0
What reassurances
23:42.0
The Americans have given
23:43.0
To Marcos Jr.
23:44.0
I am not
23:45.0
100% sold
23:46.0
On the expanded
23:47.0
EDCA implementation
23:48.0
Right
23:49.0
So hindi naman tayong
23:50.0
Yung
23:51.0
Oh
23:52.0
Dahil lang
23:53.0
Hindi siya tatay style
23:54.0
Correcting siya
23:55.0
So that's why I'm saying
23:56.0
My stance is very
23:57.0
Move on
23:58.0
I can see the
23:59.0
Argument
24:00.0
For full implementation
24:01.0
Of EDCA
24:02.0
Because after all
24:03.0
We're responding to bullying
24:04.0
And the threats of
24:05.0
Invasion of Taiwan
24:06.0
Not the other way around
24:07.0
Let's be very clear
24:08.0
About this
24:09.0
But I'm not
24:11.0
Very sure
24:12.0
Whether
24:13.0
Because I don't know
24:14.0
What the assurances
24:15.0
We got
24:16.0
And how credible
24:17.0
These assurances are
24:18.0
I'm not 100% sure
24:19.0
If
24:20.0
This is the best
24:21.0
Decision
24:22.0
Per se
24:23.0
But it could
24:24.0
Potentially be the best
24:25.0
Decision
24:26.0
Under
24:27.0
Relatively bad
24:28.0
Circumstances
24:29.0
Geopolitical circumstances
24:30.0
So let's see
24:31.0
That's why
24:32.0
I am not making
24:33.0
Final judgment
24:34.0
On this yet
24:35.0
Especially from
24:36.0
A normative position
24:37.0
So ang ginagawa po natin
24:38.0
Ang
24:39.0
Currency
24:40.0
is
24:41.0
The
24:42.0
Nothing
24:43.0
But
24:44.0
A
24:45.0
Normal
24:46.0
Common
24:47.0
Currency
24:48.0
So
24:49.0
Just
24:50.0
Let me
24:51.0
Be very
24:52.0
Clear
24:53.0
Mga
24:54.0
Kameta
24:55.0
What
24:56.0
I found
24:57.0
Highly
24:58.0
Problematic
24:59.0
With
25:00.0
Critics
25:01.0
Where from
25:02.0
The
25:03.0
Supposed
25:04.0
Left
25:05.0
And
25:06.0
From
25:07.0
It's a situation of war where kaagad we're risking.
25:12.0
The invasion plans for Taiwan have been there for a long time
25:15.0
so you rather prepare for it or deter it.
25:17.0
So that's one thing to keep in mind.
25:19.0
The second thing to keep in mind also
25:21.0
is that
25:23.0
let's not forget
25:25.0
that the threat to us in the West Philippine Sea
25:27.0
is not from the West.
25:29.0
I personally am uncritical of the invasion of Iraq
25:33.0
and many other countries in the Middle East and all of that
25:35.0
and a lot of mess that Western military interventions created
25:39.0
in much of the world, especially in the Middle East.
25:41.0
I see the argument of that President Obama
25:45.0
many top American politicians have already acknowledged that.
25:49.0
So give an ear.
25:51.0
But here in the Philippines, in the case of the West Philippine Sea
25:53.0
it's not the West which is the threat to us.
25:55.0
So let's be very clear about that.
25:57.0
What I'm also against is drawing false equivalence
26:00.0
saying, these two superpowers are exactly the same
26:03.0
let's just not get dumb.
26:05.0
No, no, no. One is a treaty ally which is not threatening us.
26:07.0
Yes, it was a problem for us 100 years ago
26:09.0
50 years ago maybe, 30 years ago maybe.
26:12.0
But the other one is threatening you in the West Philippine Sea.
26:15.0
So I'm also against the argument of false equivalence.
26:19.0
So in short,
26:21.0
that's my take on the whole ETCA expansion issue.
26:27.0
It is multi-layered.
26:29.0
It is contingent with caveats and all.
26:31.0
But overall, what I can say is that
26:34.0
the TATAY way of doing things was simply not working.
26:37.0
If anything, it was like an enabler
26:41.0
for what was happening in the West Philippine Sea.
26:43.0
So a correction was necessary.
26:46.0
What I cannot fully attest to
26:50.0
is whether Marcos Jr. is over-correcting the situation.
26:54.0
Now let's also wait for more updates
26:57.0
because the Philippines is also exploring
27:00.0
expanded defense deals with Japan.
27:03.0
So maybe when Japan enters the US,
27:05.0
the United Front will be stronger
27:07.0
and China will be more determined.
27:09.0
That's probably at least the logic behind it.
27:11.0
And then potentially with Australia and other countries too.
27:14.0
So more and more are yet to come.
27:16.0
That's why I'd rather hold back judgment.
27:21.0
Nevertheless, I'll always say
27:23.0
I'd rather have us rely on our own capabilities.
27:26.0
I don't want foreign troops on our soil as much as possible.
27:29.0
But the reality is that
27:31.0
we still do not have minimum deterrence capabilities.
27:33.0
It's going to take some time.
27:34.0
And if we're just going to wait it out,
27:36.0
wait until we get that capability,
27:38.0
maybe it'll be too late.
27:40.0
And the other thing is this,
27:42.0
we have to make sure this ETCA
27:45.0
will go hand-in-hand with getting the best possible
27:47.0
weapons systems, etc. from our allies
27:50.0
to build up our own defensive capabilities.
27:53.0
So there has to be a conscious effort by the Philippines
27:56.0
to pressure America and other allies
27:58.0
to give us the best weapons systems
27:59.0
so that we can be more self-reliant
28:01.0
and not just rely on others.
28:03.0
Because at the end of the day,
28:04.0
we should be here for ourselves.
28:05.0
And at the end of the day,
28:06.0
if we're giving basic access,
28:07.0
we have to get something in return.
28:09.0
And if we're giving basic access,
28:10.0
we have to make sure that this doesn't lead
28:12.0
to human rights violations, sexual abuses,
28:14.0
and all of those horrible things that usually come
28:16.0
with major troop deployments abroad.
28:20.0
Including in our own historical context.
28:23.0
Alright, I'll keep it there.
28:26.0
I'm just saying these are the kind of discussions we need.
28:28.0
Measured, calibrated, not too emotional,
28:33.0
objective, and historically contextualized
28:36.0
with proper research and update.
28:38.0
And unfortunately, that's what I don't see a lot.
28:40.0
A lot of people are throwing out opinion there
28:42.0
without doing their study,
28:43.0
without doing their research,
28:44.0
without having access,
28:46.0
without knowing what's happening behind the scenes.
28:48.0
Now, I'm not exaggerating.
28:50.0
I've written at least two full-blown books
28:53.0
which directly deal with the maritime issues
28:55.0
in this part of the world,
28:56.0
maritime disputes in this part of the world.
28:57.0
Not to mention, covering and writing
28:59.0
on the South China Sea dispute among others
29:01.0
since at least 2011-2012.
29:03.0
So this is based on my experience,
29:05.0
not only as an academic and a journalist,
29:06.0
but also someone who has been dealing directly
29:08.0
with policy makers, relevant policy makers
29:11.0
from different sides.
29:12.0
We've talked to everyone,
29:14.0
including Chinese officials, etc.,
29:16.0
throughout the years.
29:17.0
So that's all I can say for now.
29:19.0
Alright, comrades,
29:20.0
let's have more discussion of this soon.
29:22.0
Thank you to Ma'am Edna Nolan as always,
29:25.0
Fanny San Miguel,
29:26.0
Mel Rowell,
29:27.0
Kabangon,
29:28.0
Jocelyn Lumberio,
29:29.0
and Eunice Labalcon.
29:31.0
Thank you very much to all of you for your support.
29:33.0
I'm just saying.
29:34.0
Now, obviously,
29:37.0
you can say,
29:38.0
Richard, you're crazy on Twitter, etc.
29:40.0
Yeah, but,
29:41.0
you see,
29:42.0
I follow what Socrates said.
29:44.0
Socrates said,
29:45.0
you have to seduce people to the truth.
29:46.0
So sometimes,
29:48.0
you can be a little bit crazy,
29:50.0
a little bit provocative and all,
29:51.0
but if that's your way
29:52.0
for getting people to discuss issues
29:54.0
in a detailed,
29:55.0
grounded,
29:56.0
evidence-based,
29:58.0
and patient way,
29:59.0
then so be it.
30:00.0
Right?
30:01.0
And because, unfortunately,
30:02.0
in our era of social media information age,
30:04.0
it's hard to get people
30:07.0
to sit down and properly listen
30:09.0
to detailed discussions,
30:11.0
especially on things that
30:12.0
are too abstract
30:13.0
or too policy elite level.
30:16.0
So, yes,
30:17.0
admittedly,
30:18.0
sometimes we become a little bit provocative
30:19.0
if you're in there,
30:20.0
but if you look at it,
30:21.0
in my follow-up discussions,
30:22.0
I really provide details.
30:23.0
I provide links,
30:24.0
review of related literature,
30:26.0
so on and so forth.
30:27.0
All right?
30:28.0
That's what we've got to do.
30:29.0
All right,
30:30.0
for those who are late here,
30:31.0
please go back again
30:32.0
to the earlier portions
30:33.0
of our discussions today.
30:35.0
Maybe just ignore the first
30:37.0
five minutes
30:38.0
where I was just
30:39.0
blabbering and
30:40.0
ranting.
30:41.0
Of course,
30:42.0
we all know,
30:43.0
lecture mode right away.
30:44.0
Lecture right away.
30:45.0
In fact,
30:46.0
even in classes,
30:47.0
teachers tend to start
30:48.0
with a little bit of politeness,
30:49.0
and then they go
30:50.0
into serious discussion.
30:51.0
So,
30:52.0
maybe you can ignore
30:53.0
the politeness part.
30:54.0
Go straight away
30:55.0
to the discussions we had.
30:56.0
And I also thank people,
30:57.0
including Teddy,
30:58.0
not Teddy Luxin,
30:59.0
but the other ones and all,
31:00.0
for at least bothering
31:01.0
to responding and all
31:02.0
and respectfully airing out
31:05.0
their concerns,
31:06.0
et cetera.
31:07.0
And I try to be
31:08.0
as respectful as possible
31:09.0
in responding like that
31:10.0
and look forward to it.
31:11.0
So,
31:12.0
tomorrow, guys,
31:13.0
we're going to have
31:14.0
a podcast,
31:15.0
and also on Friday,
31:16.0
God willing,
31:17.0
and also another one
31:18.0
on Sunday,
31:19.0
God willing.
31:20.0
So,
31:21.0
over the next three days or so,
31:22.0
we're going to have
31:23.0
a number of podcasts.
31:24.0
Two of them will deal
31:25.0
directly with Spain.
31:26.0
One is with a good friend
31:27.0
based in Spain.
31:28.0
I think Manolote
31:29.0
already kind of heard him
31:30.0
and saw him last week.
31:31.0
Also,
31:32.0
we're going to talk
31:33.0
to a Spanish scholar
31:34.0
based in the Philippines,
31:35.0
Jorge,
31:36.0
George,
31:37.0
who has also very interesting
31:38.0
things to say about
31:39.0
Rizal,
31:40.0
Philippines,
31:41.0
and Spain.
31:42.0
And then we're also going
31:43.0
to talk to Leloy Claudio,
31:44.0
our good friend,
31:45.0
for the latest episode
31:46.0
of Nexus.
31:47.0
We're going to have
31:48.0
these discussions
31:49.0
including with some
31:50.0
of the policymakers,
31:51.0
people in the military,
31:52.0
people in the relevant
31:53.0
policymaking,
31:54.0
including some very
31:55.0
high-level people.
31:56.0
We're hoping to get them.
31:57.0
So, please continue
31:58.0
to support us.
31:59.0
As I said,
32:00.0
I have to open,
32:01.0
hopefully,
32:02.0
a Patreon account
32:03.0
or something like that
32:04.0
because we won't have
32:05.0
enough funds so that
32:06.0
we can also do
32:07.0
in-studio interviews
32:08.0
and all.
32:09.0
That's what we're
32:10.0
really looking for.
32:11.0
All right?
32:12.0
Thank you very much,
32:13.0
Kameta.
32:14.0
Talk to you soon.


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