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00:15.2
ayan na naman tayo
00:18.6
earphones natin, nakalimutan natin mga kameta
00:55.4
ayan na mga kameta, kamusta kayo dyan
01:08.4
marami tayong pag-usapan, hindi na yung showbiz, tama na yung showbiz na yan
01:12.4
medyo magta-timeout na tayo dyan
01:15.4
pagod na ako dyan sa mga showbiz, ang dami mga defensive, ang dami mga dismissive
01:20.4
tayo pang naiyayabangan
01:22.4
ayaw ko na, gusto ko naman, mamaya papatulan ko ulit
01:27.4
but we have more important things, more real important things to talk about
01:31.4
at ito po yung mga latest development sa ating regyon
01:35.4
especially the major major defense deal na finalized po ng tatlong malaking bansa
01:42.4
makapangyarihan na bansa, ito pa United States, ito po United Kingdom at Australia
01:48.4
so 3 anglophone allies, medyo may sariling military commonwealth sila
01:54.4
kahapon po, or actually hours ago, dun sa San Diego, California
01:59.4
shoutout naman dyan sa mga cousins, relatives, tito natin dyan sa San Diego
02:03.4
nagkaroon ng major major meeting doon
02:06.4
at kung saan nagtipon-tipon itong mga leaders sa mga tatlong bansa na yan
02:11.4
and accordingly they agreed on a major massive defense deal
02:16.4
a 300 billion dollar deal guys
02:20.4
kung saan pag-usapan po nila
02:24.4
itong submarine deal
02:26.4
submarine deals na kailangan nila dyan
02:28.4
para magkaroon ng kapasidad
02:32.4
to keep China's ambitions in check
02:35.4
yan na naman tayo mga kamay
02:37.4
talagang ating internet yata lumalaban
02:40.4
let me double check lang kung our connection is good
02:43.4
anyway mga kamay, pag-usapan natin yan
02:48.4
because this is very very important
02:50.4
what we need to understand is that
02:53.4
dito sa ating rihon, multiple important things are happening simultaneously
02:57.4
so 2 trilateral alliances are essentially coming into being
03:01.4
yung isa is the Australia-United States-UK or AUKUS trilateral alliance
03:10.4
and the other one mga kameta is the
03:13.4
yung tinatawag na or pwede natin tawagin na
03:16.4
Japan-Philippines-US or JAFOS security alliance
03:20.4
these 2 are extremely extremely important
03:22.4
both of them are very important
03:24.4
and both of them in one way or another have to do something directly with what's happening sa Taiwan
03:29.4
because there's really a lot of concerns mga kameta
03:32.4
na magkakaroon ng gyera dyan sa Taiwan
03:35.4
in the near term, in the short term
03:38.4
we don't know how short term or near term this is gonna be
03:41.4
some are gonna say 2025
03:43.4
some are saying as early as 2024
03:45.4
if yung Taiwan sa next presidential election
03:47.4
nag-elect ng isang leader na mas aggressive, mas radical
03:51.4
at mas pro-independence
03:53.4
na gusto nyo mag-declare talaga ng total independence from China
03:56.4
and some would say well at least we have maybe a decade
03:59.4
so that we can make necessary preparations here
04:01.4
eto po yung meeting kahapon
04:03.4
in response to the possibility of war over Taiwan
04:06.4
so makikita nyo dun sa map mga kameta
04:08.4
so at the very center of the map, makikita nyo yung Pilipinas
04:11.4
you can see how important the Philippines is
04:13.4
it's exactly smack in the center of this geopolitical theater
04:17.4
very very important theater
04:19.4
this showdown in the so-called Western Pacific
04:22.4
and the so-called First Island Chain
04:24.4
so yung First Island Chain mga kameta
04:25.4
goes from Okinawa regions in Southern Japan
04:28.4
all the way to Taiwan Straits
04:32.4
and then goes to the West Philippine Sea or South China Sea mga kameta
04:35.4
eto yung napakamahalaga na theater
04:38.4
so yung mga ibang US allies from the outsides
04:41.4
including Australia in the so-called Second Island Chain
04:44.4
covering Philippine Sea
04:46.4
Benahum Rise going all the way to the South Pacific
04:49.4
and then kasama din dyan ang United Kingdom
04:52.4
dahil may mga territories din ang United Kingdom dito sa Pacific region
04:56.4
so all of these three are coming together
04:58.4
pero para sa akin mga kameta
05:00.4
ang mahalaga din pag-usapan natin
05:02.4
is the other trilateral alliance that is coming together
05:05.4
eto yung sabi ko nga JAFOS
05:07.4
Japan, Philippines, United States
05:10.4
these three are coming together
05:11.4
and again, tingnan nyo yung mga map mga kameta
05:14.4
kung isu-zoom in nyo yung map
05:15.4
makikita nyo talaga
05:16.4
yung Taiwan po exactly sa gitna ng Pilipinas and Japan
05:20.4
and of course Japan extends all the way down
05:23.4
so Senkaku, Diaoyo Islands to Okinawa
05:26.4
so if you look at the distance between Okinawa and Senkaku Islands
05:30.4
particular yung southernmost tip of Japan
05:34.4
and then titignan mo
05:35.4
hindi na makikita dito
05:36.4
pero titignan mo for instance yung Mavulis and Fuga Islands
05:39.4
yung pinaka-northern islands natin sa Isabela
05:42.4
both of them are roughly around 100 nautical miles away from Taiwan's shores
05:48.4
so one from the north in the case of Japan
05:50.4
and one from the south in the case of the Philippines
05:52.4
and then katulad na sinabi natin
05:54.4
the Philippines is exactly in the middle of this map
05:56.4
so you have Australia below
05:58.4
you have Japan there
06:00.4
you have Thailand
06:03.4
and then China here
06:04.4
and then Philippines is exactly in the middle
06:06.4
no, exactly in the middle
06:07.4
and that's why napaka-mahaligang Pilipinas
06:09.4
our geography once again is extremely crucial
06:12.4
to determining the future of the Indo-Pacific region
06:15.4
and the future of the
06:17.4
most believed inevitable showdown
06:19.4
between China and the United States
06:21.4
magkakaroon talaga ng showdown yan
06:22.4
we just don't know how violent
06:24.4
and how early this showdown is going to be
06:26.4
because wala pa tayong high-tech warfare
06:28.4
between two superpowers
06:30.4
in fact, wala tayong direct war
06:32.4
between two superpowers
06:34.4
for almost 100 years
06:35.4
the last time we had direct war among superpowers
06:37.4
mga kamay, eto was Second World War
06:39.4
since then, because of invention of nuclear weapons
06:42.4
and more advanced
06:44.4
versions of weapons of mass destruction
06:47.4
we never saw two major powers going head to head
06:50.4
but now, many are saying that this is almost inevitable
06:54.4
I don't agree, I don't believe in inevitability
06:56.4
but the probability is increasingly higher
06:58.4
siguro it was 20% 10-20 years ago
07:01.4
now it's at least 40% chance
07:03.4
but still, there's more chance than not
07:06.4
in terms of avoiding this conflict
07:08.4
but sabi nga nila, you have to be prepared
07:10.4
you have to be prepared
07:11.4
and kung maalala nyo mga kamay eto
07:13.4
nakausap natin si Ambassador Romualdez
07:16.4
nakausap natin siya ukot sa issue ng Taiwan
07:19.4
at sabi niya, we cannot choose our geography
07:21.4
andiyan yung Taiwan
07:23.4
hindi tayo pwede maging neutral dito
07:25.4
kahit pa neutral-neutral tayo
07:26.4
talagang apektado tayo dyan
07:29.4
if a war breaks out
07:31.4
so the best thing to be sustained
07:34.4
or for the peace to break out
07:36.4
and end the crisis
07:37.4
is to deter China
07:38.4
and to deter China
07:39.4
you need to double down in these alliances
07:41.4
so katulad ng sabi natin
07:42.4
on one hand, of course mga kamay eto
07:44.4
the big news today is the AUKUS
07:47.4
so let me go a little bit to the AUKUS
07:48.4
let's discuss it very shortly mga kamay eto
07:52.4
there were some very negative reaction to it
07:55.4
including from NATO allies
07:57.4
especially Europe
07:58.4
so ito pa yung meeting kahapon
07:59.4
na sinasabi natin mga kamay eto
08:01.4
kung saan nag-meet si Biden
08:04.4
Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister of UK
08:07.4
on the right side
08:08.4
and on the left side, of course, Albanese
08:10.4
or Albanese, si Prime Minister ng Australia
08:14.4
so you have three leaders
08:16.4
two Prime Ministers and one President
08:17.4
meeting there in San Diego
08:18.4
which is of course a major naval base
08:20.4
dun sa mga, of course, mga kamay eto natin
08:22.4
na nakapunta sa Amerika
08:23.4
at may mga relatives katulad natin
08:26.4
you know, this is a major naval base, of course
08:28.4
so dun nagkaroon ng meeting
08:30.4
at ang pinag-usapan dito mga kamay eto
08:32.4
fundamentally is this
08:34.4
they want to develop advanced submarines
08:37.4
and share those submarines
08:38.4
especially with Australia
08:41.4
and we're talking about
08:42.4
not just any kind of submarines mga kamay eto
08:44.4
we're talking about
08:46.4
nuclear-powered submarines
08:48.4
now, nuclear-powered submarines
08:50.4
these are different from nuclear submarines
08:53.4
because when you say nuclear submarines
08:55.4
generally ang tinutokon natin dito is
08:58.4
submarines that can launch nuclear weapons
09:01.4
yun yung tinatawag na triad capability
09:04.4
so the ability to launch nuclear weapons
09:06.4
or missiles from land, from air, or from seas
09:10.4
and one of the options for having
09:13.4
seaboard nuclear capability
09:17.4
is through submarine space mga kamay eto
09:20.4
but this is not gonna be
09:22.4
a nuclear submarine
09:24.4
in a sense of carrying nuclear missiles and weapons
09:27.4
it's gonna be powered by nuclear energy
09:31.4
so actually, it's technically speaking
09:34.4
civilian nuclear technology-driven
09:37.4
military hardware, right?
09:40.4
so it's not a military hardware
09:42.4
that carries nuclear weapons
09:45.4
now, this is very important
09:46.4
because mga kamay eto
09:47.4
dito sa ASEAN, meron tayong tinatawag na
09:50.4
yung Southeast Asian region
09:54.4
Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
09:57.4
that's how we put it
09:58.4
di ko na akong sinanghen yung nag-isip
10:01.4
medyo weird na basahin niya
10:03.4
but we have this mga kamay eto
10:04.4
ilabas natin dito
10:05.4
so that's why it's very important
10:08.4
to make sure na hindi eto
10:10.4
nuclear weapons carrying
10:12.4
because that will be problematic
10:14.4
if and almost certainly
10:16.4
kasi Australia yung bibigay dito
10:18.4
kasi meron naman ng UK at US
10:21.4
so let me just show you this agreement
10:24.4
Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
10:26.4
okay, Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
10:28.4
para alam nyo yung pinag-usapan natin
10:30.4
so you can actually find this
10:31.4
on the website of ASEAN
10:34.4
ito, Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
10:40.4
post natin dito mga kamay eto
10:41.4
para ma-appreciate yun
10:42.4
again, this is a very important distinction
10:43.4
because maraming mga pro-Tatay, pro-China
10:46.4
whatever side dyan
10:47.4
na tinitwist nila yung katotohanan dito
10:49.4
or they will try to twist
10:53.4
it's absolutely correct
10:58.4
we have a no nuclear weapons policy
11:01.4
kaya nga may problema tayo sa Amerika
11:02.4
or mga ibang bansa na dati
11:04.4
naglalagay ng mga nuclear stockpile
11:06.4
or nuclear waste dito
11:07.4
and we have some serious concerns about that
11:09.4
we can have a separate meta over that
11:14.4
so, here in Southeast Asia
11:15.4
meron tayong natin itang
11:16.4
Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
11:19.4
so, this was signed in December 1996
11:21.4
by ASEAN member states
11:23.4
so, it's a commitment to preserve
11:25.4
the Southeast Asian region
11:26.4
as a region free of nuclear
11:27.4
and other weapons of mass destruction
11:29.4
the treaty's also known as the Bangkok Treaty
11:32.4
kasi sa Bangkok yun na-sign
11:33.4
through this treaty
11:34.4
ASEAN reaffirms the importance
11:37.4
on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons
11:41.4
in preventing the proliferation
11:42.4
of nuclear weapons
11:43.4
and contributing toward
11:44.4
international peace and security
11:45.4
it also marks the establishment
11:46.4
of a nuclear weapons free zone
11:47.4
in Southeast Asia
11:49.4
NWFZs in the world
11:52.4
the other four are
11:54.4
and the Caribbean
12:00.4
for the Sean Fest Treaty
12:01.4
welcomes the signing
12:02.4
and ratification of nuclear weapons states
12:04.4
which will contribute to the promotion
12:05.4
of realization of Southeast Asia
12:07.4
yung sinasabi natin dito mga hameta is
12:09.4
yung mga may malalaking
12:11.4
huwag kayong pumunta dito
12:12.4
huwag kayong magulo dito
12:13.4
huwag nyong dalin yung mga
12:15.4
nuclear weapons nyo dito
12:17.4
whether to submarines
12:20.4
now, whether ang China
12:24.4
nuclear weapons scaring submarines
12:28.4
but what we're talking about
12:29.4
yung mga hameta is
12:30.4
nuclear powered submarines
12:32.4
and ang kahalagan
12:33.4
ng nuclear powered submarines
12:36.4
or fossil fuel driven submarines
12:37.4
they can go for a very, very long time
12:41.4
kasi yung nuclear technology, diba?
12:44.4
it can constantly generate energy
12:46.4
for an extended period
12:48.4
and hindi naman forever
12:50.4
but kasi andun naman yung crew, diba?
12:52.4
hindi naman yung pwede yung crew
12:53.4
hindi naman alabas forever
12:54.4
but parang for a very long time
12:56.4
more than two to three times
12:57.4
the average of what
12:59.4
a diesel powered submarine is
13:02.4
and it's much more quiet
13:05.4
and it's much more stealthy
13:07.4
so it's very, very advanced
13:09.4
kung baga, ito yung F-35
13:11.4
kung sa aeroplano
13:13.4
ito yung F-35 version, diba?
13:15.4
kung baga, Australia wants to go from
13:17.4
F-16s or F-18s to F-35s
13:19.4
this is what we're looking at
13:20.4
although, of course, they have the F-35
13:23.4
there are two options here
13:26.4
mga hameta is for Australia
13:30.4
kasi it's the junior ally here
13:33.4
for Australia to get
13:34.4
either the Virginia-class submarine
13:36.4
so this is the U.S. one
13:39.4
three dozens of this
13:40.4
if I'm not mistaken
13:43.4
and it's considered the
13:45.4
parang kung baga, ito pa
13:46.4
ito pa yung Ferrari of mga submarines
13:50.4
Virginia-class submarine
13:59.4
you can look at the specs here
14:00.4
mga kamayta, pinost natin mga specs
14:02.4
the other one, of course
14:03.4
is slightly smaller one
14:05.4
or more than slightly
14:07.4
compared to 150 meters
14:11.4
but still very sophisticated
14:12.4
the one is astute class
14:15.4
so, ang tanong dito is
14:17.4
before the meeting kahapon
14:19.4
ng itong mga tatlong leaders na yan
14:21.4
which one is Australia gonna get
14:22.4
is it gonna get the Virginia-class
14:23.4
is it gonna get the astute class
14:25.4
what happened was that
14:26.4
the decision was to develop
14:29.4
submarine altogether
14:30.4
building on the existing
14:32.4
platforms of the United Kingdom
14:34.4
so, ito ay magiging
14:37.4
cutting-edge powered
14:41.4
and the submarine I think
14:42.4
is expected to come on board
14:43.4
in 20 years almost
14:48.4
now, sa military at first
14:50.4
intermediate capability
14:52.4
habang naghihintay tayo
14:53.4
ng darating yung mga
14:56.4
eh, anong gagawin ng Australia
14:58.4
because pinaparetire na nila
14:59.4
yung mga luma nilang submarines
15:02.4
towards the end of the
15:03.4
you know, Soviet Union
15:05.4
so, one of the things
15:06.4
that they looked at
15:07.4
and this is why this
15:08.4
meeting in San Diego
15:09.4
is very important mga kameta
15:10.4
is because the US
15:13.4
yes, may allies sya
15:15.4
at the end of the day
15:16.4
there are certain things
15:17.4
they don't share to allies
15:19.4
the F-22 fighter guys
15:21.4
is a 5th generation fighter
15:23.4
that only US uses
15:25.4
you may be familiar with that
15:27.4
they only shared it
15:31.4
but this country turned out
15:32.4
to become America's enemy
15:34.4
of course, it's in the Middle East
15:36.4
so, F-14 was really
15:37.4
just shared with one country
15:39.4
the F-35 5th generation fighter
15:42.4
so that they can share
15:43.4
a 5th generation fighter
15:44.4
technology with a lot of countries
15:45.4
but not the core element
15:47.4
kaya nga Turkey lumabas
15:48.4
and Turkey made its own
15:49.4
you know, fighter jet project
15:51.4
so, what we're looking at
15:54.4
is something very, very interesting
15:56.4
because the US right now
15:58.4
is really revisiting
16:02.4
because for a very long time
16:05.4
even the closest allies
16:10.4
Virginian class submarines
16:11.4
because it's a very advanced
16:13.4
dun sa propeller side
16:14.4
towards the end side
16:15.4
parang off-limit yan
16:16.4
sa any, even the closest allies
16:20.4
under this new deal
16:22.4
looking at the possibility
16:28.4
Virginian class submarines
16:29.4
over the next decade
16:30.4
so that the 2030s
16:32.4
meron ng advanced
16:33.4
advanced submarines
16:35.4
so some big, big things
16:36.4
are happening dito
16:38.4
very, very interesting
16:39.4
very, very big things
16:40.4
are happening here
16:41.4
so that clearly shows
16:43.4
that clearly shows
16:45.4
that the United States
16:46.4
is really, really reconsidering
16:49.4
some of its major
16:50.4
national security policy
16:51.4
especially restrictions
16:52.4
on technology transfer
16:53.4
because I don't know
16:56.4
primarily think about itself
16:57.4
more than anyone else
16:59.4
to augment America's position
17:01.4
of international security
17:05.4
showing its willingness
17:08.4
its most advanced
17:10.4
so some Americans
17:11.4
ay medyo nagreklamo
17:12.4
may kaibigan tayo dyan
17:14.4
kung saan nagreklamo
17:17.4
parang problematik ito
17:18.4
because baka yung US
17:19.4
naman ang makakulang
17:21.4
kasi ilan ilan lang
17:22.4
they only have 3 or 3
17:24.4
of that Virginian class
17:26.4
to the Australians
17:29.4
kailangan nila yan
17:30.4
so that's going to be
17:31.4
an interesting debate
17:32.4
for quite some time
17:33.4
but in the meantime
17:34.4
Australia is putting aside
17:35.4
close to 300 billion dollars
17:36.4
over the next two decades
17:37.4
to develop the next
17:41.4
nuclear submarines
17:45.4
so the Virginian class
17:48.4
and then they're going to go
17:49.4
for the next generation
17:56.4
that's what they're
17:59.4
very very interesting
18:00.4
because what Australia
18:01.4
wants to do is to be able
18:03.4
on a sustained basis
18:04.4
in your face level
18:06.4
the immediate shores
18:08.4
way beyond South Pacific
18:13.4
Philippines Sea among others
18:15.4
direct implications
18:16.4
sa atin mga kameta
18:21.4
right in the middle
18:23.4
this very important
18:25.4
so you can look at it
18:27.4
if Australia is going to
18:29.4
yung kanilang submarines
18:31.4
pass through Southeast Asia
18:32.4
unless they want to go
18:33.4
from the other side
18:34.4
of course they can do that
18:35.4
but a lot of the sea lanes
18:36.4
so you can see here
18:37.4
in the picture mga kameta
18:39.4
passes through Indonesia
18:44.4
and then goes through
18:45.4
Southern Philippines
18:46.4
and then goes up to
18:47.4
the Philippine Sea
18:48.4
going towards Taiwan
18:50.4
so these are very very
18:51.4
busy important sea lines
18:55.4
front and center here
18:57.4
we're kinda in the
19:00.4
in the case of the Philippines
19:01.4
we're more than in the
19:03.4
we're already on the
19:09.4
and the United States
19:11.4
trilaterals coming in
19:12.4
one trilateral alliance
19:13.4
or tripartite alliance
19:18.4
that's pretty well
19:20.4
institutionalized one
19:21.4
still a tripartite
19:22.4
security framework
19:23.4
is being worked out
19:27.4
masabay niya yung AUKUS
19:43.4
all of those stuff
19:45.4
but it's very important
19:46.4
because as I said
19:47.4
tignan niyo napakalapit
19:51.4
Pilipinas is also
19:52.4
on the front line
19:53.4
when it comes to the
19:54.4
South China Sea issue
19:57.4
its own direct problems
19:59.4
over Senkaku Diaoyu
20:00.4
in the East China Sea
20:01.4
so we're directly
20:02.4
at the very front line
20:03.4
so this alternative
20:04.4
trilateral is also
20:05.4
something going to be
20:08.4
submarine for Australia
20:10.4
in the next 20 years
20:11.4
a war could happen
20:13.4
in the next two years
20:14.4
or actually next year
20:17.4
and elects a crazy person
20:18.4
and provokes China
20:20.4
the threat is coming
20:24.4
let's look at this
20:25.4
so what I'm arguing
20:27.4
yung article natin
20:28.4
sa Center for Strategic
20:29.4
and International Studies
20:31.4
I write everywhere
20:32.4
so don't try to say
20:33.4
I don't write one
20:34.4
I've been published
20:36.4
with the Russians
20:37.4
everyone has published me
20:38.4
I write every different places
20:41.4
we're just looking at
20:43.4
and different angles
20:46.4
South China Morning Post
20:47.4
which is based in Hong Kong
20:50.4
please check this out
20:51.4
because this is where
20:52.4
I discuss more and more
20:57.4
what's happening here
20:59.4
Philippines and Japan
21:00.4
together with the US
21:01.4
are coming together
21:03.4
what's happening here
21:06.4
trilateral alliances
21:09.4
at different levels
21:10.4
at different pace
21:11.4
at different level
21:12.4
of institutionalization
21:13.4
but the ultimate idea
21:15.4
is yung tinatawag na
21:16.4
integrated deterrence
21:19.4
integrated deterrence
21:20.4
the idea is very simple
21:23.4
na one-on-one nya
21:30.4
actually if you look at it
21:31.4
China has an advantage
21:33.4
dito sa region natin
21:35.4
this is their region
21:36.4
this is their backyard
21:37.4
they can concentrate
21:38.4
all of their forces here
21:39.4
much of their naval capability
21:40.4
while US is dispersed
21:41.4
all around the world
21:44.4
purchasing power parity
21:46.4
actually China has
21:47.4
as much defense spending
21:51.4
but similar levels
21:52.4
at least two-thirds
21:53.4
defense spending as US
21:55.4
so they can concentrate it
21:56.4
I'll just show you some data
21:57.4
so that you can see
21:58.4
where I'm coming from mga kameta
22:00.4
this is the concept
22:01.4
of integrated deterrence
22:02.4
it's very important
22:04.4
you work together
22:12.4
para ma-appreciate
22:13.4
yung sinasabi natin
22:21.4
face-to-face with US
22:22.4
in our region alone
22:23.4
so this is a very interesting
22:24.4
graph that I'll show
22:29.4
hindi pitsugin talaga
22:31.4
malakas talaga ng China
22:33.4
and they're really
22:34.4
really developing
22:35.4
their capabilities
22:38.4
nag-relay sa sarili lang
22:39.4
they're working through
22:40.4
a network of alliances
22:41.4
which China doesn't have
22:42.4
like who are allies of China
22:45.4
bogged down there
22:48.4
I mean nag-bug-bug
22:49.4
na bug-bug sila dan
22:52.4
No, I don't think so
22:53.4
I was in North Korea
22:55.4
they're not really
22:56.4
inis nalang sila sa China
22:57.4
kasi over-dependent
22:58.4
so this is actually
22:59.4
the actual spending
23:00.4
so if you use the
23:01.4
purchasing power parity
23:02.4
China and United States
23:03.4
defense spending overall
23:04.4
are not that different
23:07.4
you can see there
23:08.4
that's the nominal
23:09.4
which is around 200 billion
23:10.4
if you use purchasing power parity
23:11.4
it could be 400 billion
23:12.4
up to 600 billion
23:13.4
so there's a lot of
23:15.4
that we're not very aware of
23:18.4
in terms of their
23:21.4
hindi naman sila foolish
23:22.4
na i-one-on-one nang nila
23:23.4
bakit namin i-one-on-one
23:24.4
eh may naman naman
23:25.4
kayong mga aliado dito
23:26.4
who also have concerns
23:28.4
so that's where guys
23:30.4
comes in the picture
23:34.4
so Jafus is there on top
23:36.4
is coming from below
23:37.4
and then the idea
23:38.4
is that these trilaterals
23:39.4
can work together
23:40.4
now I didn't mention the Quad
23:41.4
because that's important
23:47.4
different outlook
23:52.4
one of the pillars of power
23:53.4
they don't want to be
23:54.4
part of a US plan
23:56.4
very great relationship
23:58.4
but they have problems
24:00.4
so there's some overlap
24:01.4
with the US and all
24:02.4
but not that much
24:04.4
while Philippines
24:06.4
Japan is a US ally
24:08.4
Australia is UK's ally
24:09.4
and then Philippines
24:10.4
is developing VFA with Japan
24:11.4
and then who knows
24:12.4
what's in the works
24:13.4
with UK and other countries
24:15.4
fascinating picture
24:19.4
really these are huge things
24:20.4
that are happening
24:22.4
and we have to really
24:23.4
pay attention to these things
24:25.4
parang daldal natin
24:27.4
wait nasan na tayo?
24:28.4
nasan na yung aking studio?
24:32.2
very very kind of you
24:34.2
for checking us out
24:35.2
hindi ko makalabas dito
24:37.9
some of the comments
24:40.9
you see the value
24:44.9
some of our articles
24:49.9
this kind of discussion
24:55.9
et cetera et cetera
24:57.9
nasasabihin ng mga trolls
25:02.9
sometimes you have to
25:03.9
ruffle some feathers
25:05.9
the discussion going
25:07.9
let's park that muna
25:09.9
this is serious guys
25:11.9
I don't think anyone else
25:12.9
has really mentioned
25:14.9
but I'm the first one
25:17.9
are coming together
25:24.9
China's gonna respond
25:25.9
but let's also discuss
25:28.9
also how the other
25:30.9
are gonna respond
25:31.9
although most of them
25:33.9
too relevant to this
25:34.9
I mean not everyone's
25:35.9
gonna be a star in the show
25:37.9
but let's also discuss
25:39.9
because Singapore
25:40.9
has a lot of defense agreements
25:41.9
and is giving a lot
25:42.9
of defense access
25:43.9
naval access to Americans
25:46.9
so Singapore will also be
25:47.9
part of this discussion
25:48.9
something that we have
25:50.9
and like you know
25:51.9
of course Singapore
25:52.9
became very important
25:54.9
when the Americans
25:55.9
left the Philippines
25:56.9
after the Subic bases
25:58.9
for permanent bases
25:59.9
to the United States
26:01.9
let me say very much
26:07.9
no, I don't agree
26:08.9
lesser bad versus
26:13.9
let's be very clear
26:19.9
do we want to be part
26:20.9
of a free and democratic world?
26:29.9
and at the same time
26:34.9
if we're all strong
26:38.9
of course they're not perfect
26:41.9
we saw crazy things
26:42.9
happen in the past
26:44.9
major superpowers
26:48.9
the stronger you are
26:50.9
for the other side
26:51.9
to even contemplate
26:53.9
but at the very minimum
26:54.9
you should be prepared
26:55.9
and the more alliances
27:00.9
in fact there's a military
27:02.9
that we can discuss soon
27:10.9
if it goes down to war
27:18.9
and in that sense
27:19.9
you make it very difficult
27:22.9
discuss the day after
27:23.9
because a lot of war games
27:26.9
together with Philippines
27:29.9
especially Australia
27:31.9
a Chinese invasion back
27:35.9
after some initial
27:39.9
then what's gonna
27:42.9
Philippines will be
27:44.9
that's where Japan
27:45.9
will be very important
27:48.9
the best metaphor
27:53.9
cork in the bottle
27:54.9
so Taiwan is like
27:55.9
the cork in the bottle
28:00.9
Taiwan is extremely
28:01.9
important in terms of
28:04.9
pwede natin pag-usapan nga
28:05.9
Taiwan is responsible
28:29.9
huge happens there
28:30.9
bug-bugang world economy
28:36.9
because China's GDP
28:38.9
10 trillion dollars
28:39.9
so China could lose
28:40.9
2 to 3 trillion dollars
28:42.9
if a war happens there
28:45.9
potentially recession there
28:46.9
so this is gonna be serious
28:47.9
so if you want peace
28:49.9
because if you're
28:53.9
as simple as that
28:57.9
risk of actual war
28:59.9
you have to be prepared
29:02.9
there's a lot of that
29:03.9
so better be prepared
29:04.9
and better try to deter it
29:13.9
because we're still US allies
29:14.9
and we're so close
29:15.9
so that's what I'm saying
29:17.9
so either you choose
29:18.9
to end our alliance
29:20.9
or listen to that
29:21.9
you cannot have it
29:23.9
neutrality doesn't work
29:24.9
when you already have
29:25.9
a treaty alliance
29:27.9
and Taiwan is just
29:28.9
right next to you
29:30.9
thank you very much
29:32.9
I'll keep it here
29:33.9
I won't be able to load
29:36.9
thank you so much
29:40.9
ma'am Annie Gonzalez
29:42.9
for your comments
29:44.9
not just suggestions
29:47.9
of our poor man today
29:57.9
we don't have a choice
30:00.9
of course thank you
30:05.9
I'm just simplifying that
30:07.9
so if you want a more
30:08.9
in-depth analysis
30:09.9
thank you also to
30:12.9
thank you also to
30:15.9
United Arab Emirates
30:16.9
we have a lot of people
30:18.9
all across the world
30:19.9
thank you also to
30:21.9
from Kandara Samar
30:23.9
thank you for joining us
30:27.9
let's go back to that
30:40.9
what's that supposed to mean?
30:43.9
let's do some shades
30:45.9
thank you very much
30:47.9
talk to you guys soon
