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00:00.0
Ayan na! Ayan na mga kameta! Kamusta kayo dyan?
00:14.0
Marami tayong pag-usapan
00:16.0
Hindi na yung showbiz. Tama na yung showbiz na yan
00:18.0
Medyo magta-timeout na tayo dyan
00:21.0
Pagod na ako dyan sa mga showbiz
00:23.0
Ang dami mga defensive, ang dami mga dismissive
00:26.0
Ayan, tayo pang naiyayabangan
00:30.0
Hindi, gusto ko naman mamaya papatulan ko ulit
00:32.0
But we have more important things
00:34.0
More real important things to talk about
00:37.0
At ito po yung mga latest development sa ating region
00:41.0
Especially the major major defense deal na finalized po
00:45.0
ng tatlong malaking bansa
00:47.0
Makapangyarihan na bansa
00:49.0
Ito po ay United States
00:51.0
Ito po ay United Kingdom at Australia
00:54.0
So three anglophone allies
00:56.0
Medyo may sariling military commonwealth sila
00:59.0
So kahapon po, or actually hours ago
01:02.0
Doon sa San Diego, California
01:04.0
Shout out naman dyan sa mga cousins, relatives
01:07.0
Tito natin dyan sa San Diego
01:09.0
Nagkaroon ng major major meeting doon
01:13.0
Anyway mga kameta
01:15.0
Pag-usapan natin yan
01:17.0
Because this is very very important
01:19.0
What we need to understand is that
01:22.0
Dito sa ating region
01:24.0
Multiple important things are happening simultaneously
01:27.0
So two trilateral alliances are essentially coming into being
01:32.0
Yung isa is the Australia-United States-UK
01:36.0
Or AUKUS trilateral alliance
01:40.0
And the other one mga kameta
01:42.0
Is yung tinatawag na
01:44.0
Or pwede natin tawag yun na
01:46.0
Japan-Philippines-US
01:48.0
Or JAFOS security alliance
01:50.0
These two are extremely extremely important
01:52.0
Both of them are very important
01:54.0
And both of them in one way or another
01:56.0
Have to do something directly with what's happening sa Taiwan
02:00.0
Because there's really a lot of concerns mga kameta
02:03.0
Nang kakaroon ng gyera dyan sa Taiwan
02:07.0
In the short term
02:09.0
We don't know how short term or near term this is going to be
02:12.0
Some are going to say 2025
02:14.0
Some are saying as early as 2024
02:16.0
If yung Taiwan sa next presidential election
02:18.0
Nag-elect ng isang leader
02:20.0
Mas-aggressive, mas-radical, at mas-pro-independence
02:23.0
Na gusto nyo mag-declare talaga ng total independence from China
02:26.0
And some would say well
02:28.0
At least we have maybe a decade
02:30.0
So that we can make necessary preparations here
02:32.0
So eto pa yung meeting kahapon
02:34.0
In response to the possibility of war over Taiwan
02:37.0
So may kita nyo dun sa map mga kameta
02:39.0
So at the very center of the map
02:41.0
May kita nyo yung Pilipinas
02:43.0
You can see how important the Philippines is
02:45.0
It's exactly smack in the center of this geopolitical theater
02:48.0
Very, very important theater
02:50.0
This showdown in the so-called Western Pacific
02:52.0
And the so-called First Island Chain
02:54.0
So yung First Island Chain mga kameta
02:56.0
Goes from Okinawa regions
02:58.0
In Southern Japan
03:00.0
All the way to Taiwan Straits
03:02.0
And then goes to the West Philippine Sea
03:04.0
Or South China Sea mga kameta
03:06.0
So po eto yung napak-mahalaga na theater
03:08.0
So yung mga ibang US allies
03:10.0
From the outsides
03:12.0
Including Australia in the so-called Second Island Chain
03:14.0
Covering Philippine Sea
03:18.0
Going all the way to the South Pacific
03:20.0
And then kasama din dyan ang United Kingdom
03:22.0
Dahil may mga territories din
03:24.0
Ang United Kingdom dito sa Pacific region
03:26.0
So all of these three are coming together
03:28.0
Pero para sa akin mga kameta
03:30.0
Ang mahalaga din pag-usapan natin
03:32.0
Is the other trilateral alliance
03:34.0
That is coming together
03:36.0
Eto yung sabi ko nga JAFOS
03:38.0
Japan, Philippines, United States
03:40.0
These three are coming together
03:42.0
And again, tingnan nyo yung mga map mga kameta
03:44.0
Kung i-zoom in nyo yung map
03:46.0
Makikita nyo talaga
03:48.0
Yung Taiwan po exactly sa gitna ng
03:50.0
Pilipinas ng Japan
03:52.0
And of course, Japan extends all the way down
03:54.0
So Senkaku, Diaoyo Islands
03:58.0
So if you look at the distance between Okinawa
04:00.0
And Senkaku Islands particularly
04:02.0
Yung southernmost tip of Japan
04:06.0
And then titignan mo, hindi na makikita dito
04:08.0
Pero titignan mo for instance yung Mavulis and Fuga Islands
04:10.0
Yung pinaka-northern islands natin sa Isabela
04:12.0
Both of them are roughly around
04:14.0
100 nautical miles away
04:16.0
From Taiwan's shores
04:18.0
So one from the north
04:20.0
In the case of Japan
04:22.0
And one from the south in the case of the Philippines
04:24.0
And then, katulad na sinabi natin
04:26.0
The Philippines is exactly in the middle of this map
04:28.0
So you have Australia below
04:30.0
You have Japan there
04:32.0
You have Thailand, Indonesia here
04:34.0
And then China here
04:36.0
And then Philippines is exactly in the middle
04:38.0
No, exactly in the middle
04:40.0
Mga kamahaligan ang Pilipinas
04:42.0
Our geography, once again, is extremely crucial
04:44.0
To determining the future of the Indo-Pacific region
04:46.0
And the future of the
04:50.0
Inevitable showdown between China and the United States
04:52.0
Magkakaroon talaga ng showdown yan
04:54.0
We just don't know how violent
04:56.0
And how early this showdown is going to be
04:58.0
Because wala pa tayong high-tech warfare
05:00.0
Between two superpowers
05:02.0
In fact, wala tayong direct war
05:04.0
Between two superpowers for almost 100 years
05:06.0
The last time we had direct war
05:08.0
Between two superpowers
05:10.0
Mga kamayata, was Second World War
05:12.0
Since then, because of invention of nuclear weapons
05:14.0
And more advanced
05:16.0
Versions of weapons of mass destruction
05:18.0
We never saw two major powers
05:20.0
Going head to head
05:22.0
But now, many are saying that
05:24.0
This is almost inevitable
05:26.0
I don't believe in inevitability
05:28.0
But the probability is increasingly higher
05:30.0
It was 20% 10-20 years ago
05:32.0
Now it's at least 40% chance
05:34.0
But still, there's more chance
05:36.0
There's more chance than not
05:38.0
In terms of avoiding this conflict
05:40.0
But sabi nga nila, you have to be prepared
05:42.0
And kung mahalalan yung mga kamayata
05:44.0
Nakausap natin si
05:46.0
Ambassador Romaldes
05:48.0
Nakausap natin siya ukol sa issue ng Taiwan
05:50.0
At sabi niya, we cannot choose our geography
05:52.0
Anjan yung Taiwan
05:54.0
At aliada natin ang Amerika, hindi tayo pwede maging neutral dito
05:56.0
Kahit pa neutral-neutral tayo, talagang apektado tayo dyan
05:58.0
If God forbid, a war breaks out
06:00.0
So the best thing to do
06:02.0
For peace to be sustained
06:04.0
Or for the peace to break out
06:06.0
And end the crisis
06:08.0
Is to deter China
06:10.0
And to deter China, you need to double down in these alliances
06:12.0
So katulad ng sabi natin, on one hand, of course mga kamayata
06:14.0
The big news today
06:18.0
So let me go a little bit to the AUKUS
06:20.0
Let's discuss it very shortly mga kamayata
06:22.0
So this AUKUS is quite controversial
06:24.0
There were some very negative reactions to it
06:26.0
Including from NATO allies
06:28.0
Especially Europe
06:30.0
So ito pa yung meeting kahapon na sinasabi natin mga kamayata
06:32.0
Kung saan nag-meet si Biden
06:36.0
Prime Minister of UK
06:38.0
On the right side
06:40.0
And on the left side, of course, Albanis
06:42.0
Si Prime Minister ng Australia
06:46.0
Three leaders, two prime ministers
06:48.0
And one president meeting there in San Diego
06:50.0
Which is of course a major naval base
06:52.0
Doon sa mga kamayata natin na nakapunta sa Amerika
06:54.0
At may mga relatives katulad natin doon sa San Diego
06:56.0
You know this is a major naval base, of course
06:58.0
So doon nagkaroon ng meeting
07:00.0
So doon nagkaroon ng meeting
07:02.0
At ang pinag-usapan dito mga kamayata
07:04.0
Fundamentally is this
07:06.0
They want to develop advanced submarines
07:08.0
And share those submarines
07:10.0
Especially with Australia
07:12.0
And we're talking about
07:14.0
Not just any kind of submarines mga kamayata
07:16.0
We're talking about
07:18.0
Nuclear-powered submarines
07:20.0
Now this is very important to emphasize mga kamayata
07:24.0
Nuclear-powered submarines
07:26.0
These are different from nuclear submarines
07:28.0
Because when you say nuclear submarines
07:30.0
Generally ang tinutokon natin dito
07:32.0
Is submarines that can
07:34.0
Launch nuclear weapons
07:36.0
Yun ang tinatawag na triad capability
07:38.0
So the ability to launch
07:40.0
Nuclear weapons or missiles
07:42.0
From land, from air, or from seas
07:44.0
And one of the options
07:52.0
Is through submarines mga kamayata
07:54.0
But this is not gonna be
07:56.0
A nuclear submarine
07:58.0
In a sense of carrying nuclear missiles
08:02.0
It's gonna be powered by nuclear energy
08:06.0
So actually it's a technically speaking
08:08.0
Civilian nuclear technology
08:14.0
So it's not a military hardware
08:16.0
That carries nuclear weapons
08:20.0
Now this is very important because mga kamayata
08:22.0
Dito sa ASEAN, mayroon tayong tinatawag na Sean Fez
08:26.0
Yung South East Asian region
08:28.0
Nuclear weapons free zone
08:32.0
No? That's how we put it
08:34.0
Hindi ko alam kung sinanghen yung nagisip ng acronym na yan
08:36.0
Medyo weird na basahin
08:38.0
But we have this mga kamayata
08:40.0
Ilabas natin dito
08:42.0
So that's why it's very important for Australia
08:44.0
To make sure na hindi ito
08:46.0
Nuclear weapons carrying
08:48.0
Because that will be problematic if
08:50.0
And almost certainly
08:52.0
Australia yung bibigay dito e
08:54.0
Kasi meron naman ang UK at US
08:56.0
So let me just show you this agreement
08:58.0
South East Asian nuclear weapons free zone
09:00.0
Nuclear weapons region
09:02.0
Para alam nyo yung pinag-usapan natin
09:04.0
So you can actually find this
09:06.0
On the website of ASEAN
09:10.0
South East Asia nuclear weapons free zone
09:14.0
Post natin dito mga kamayata
09:16.0
Para ma-appreciate yun
09:18.0
Again, this is a very important distinction
09:20.0
So if you look at that type, pro-China, whatever side dyan
09:22.0
Na tini-twist nila yung katotohanan dito
09:24.0
Or they will try to twist this
09:28.0
Sorry, it's absolutely correct
09:32.0
You know, we have a no
09:34.0
Nuclear weapons policy
09:36.0
Kaya nga may problema tayo sa America
09:38.0
Or mga ibang bansa na dati
09:40.0
Naglalagay ng mga nuclear stockpile
09:42.0
Or nuclear waste dito
09:44.0
And we have some serious concerns about that
09:46.0
We can have a separate meta over that
09:48.0
So here in South East Asia
09:50.0
South East Asia nuclear weapons free zone
09:54.0
So this was signed in December 1996
09:56.0
By ASEAN member states
09:58.0
So it's a commitment to preserve
10:00.0
The South East Asia region as a region free of
10:02.0
Nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction
10:04.0
The treaty is also known as
10:06.0
The Bangkok Treaty, because it's a Bangkokian sign
10:08.0
Through this treaty, ASEAN
10:10.0
Reaffirms the importance of the treaty
10:12.0
On the non-proliferation of
10:14.0
Nuclear weapons, NPT, in preventing
10:16.0
Non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and contributing
10:18.0
Toward international peace and security
10:20.0
It also marks the establishment of a nuclear weapons free zone
10:22.0
In South East Asia, one among five
10:24.0
NWFZs in the world
10:26.0
The other four are in
10:28.0
Latin America, the Caribbean, South Pacific
10:34.0
So the protocol for the Schoenfest Treaty welcomes
10:36.0
A signing and ratification of nuclear weapons
10:38.0
States, which will contribute to the promotion of
10:40.0
Realization of South East Asia
10:42.0
So essentially, ang sinasabi natin dito mga kameta is
10:44.0
Kung may malalaking nuclear weapons, huwag kayong pumunta dito
10:46.0
Huwag kayong magulo dito, huwag nyong
10:48.0
Dalin yung mga nuclear weapons
10:50.0
Nyo dito, whether to submarines, to warships
10:54.0
Now, whether ang China yung nagikinig, ibang usapan yan
10:56.0
Because China also has
10:58.0
Nuclear weapons scaring
11:00.0
Submarines, alright?
11:02.0
But what we're talking about here mga kameta is
11:04.0
Nuclear powered submarines
11:06.0
And ang kahalagan ng nuclear powered submarines
11:10.0
Or fossil fuel driven submarines
11:12.0
They can go for a very, very
11:16.0
Kasi yung nuclear technology, diba?
11:18.0
Iba sya, it can constantly
11:20.0
Generate energy for an extended period
11:26.0
Kasi andun naman yung crew, diba?
11:28.0
Hindi naman yung pwede yung crew, hindi nilang maglabas forever
11:30.0
But for a very long time, they can sustain more than two to three times
11:32.0
The average of what
11:38.0
And it's much more quiet
11:40.0
And it's much more stealthy
11:42.0
So it's very, very advanced
11:44.0
So kung baga, ito yung F-35
11:46.0
Kung sa aeroplano
11:48.0
Ito yung F-35 version, diba?
11:50.0
Kung baga, Australia wants to go from
11:52.0
F-16s or F-18s to F-35s
11:54.0
This is what we're looking at. Although, of course, they have the F-35
11:58.0
There are two options here
12:00.0
So one option mga kameta is
12:04.0
Kasi it's the junior ally here
12:06.0
For Australia to get either
12:08.0
It's considered the Virginia-class submarine
12:10.0
So this is the US one
12:12.0
I think the US has three dozens of this
12:14.0
If I'm not mistaken
12:16.0
So this is huge, solid yan
12:18.0
And it's considered the
12:20.0
Parang kung baga, ito pa yung Ferrari
12:22.0
Of submarines in the world
12:24.0
So this is the Virginia-class submarine
12:34.0
You can look at the specs here mga kameta
12:36.0
Specs dito, very important
12:38.0
The other one, of course, is slightly smaller one
12:40.0
Or more than slightly
12:42.0
Only 97 meters compared to 115 meters
12:46.0
Sophisticated, but still very sophisticated
12:48.0
The one is Astute-class of UK
12:50.0
So, ang tanong dito is
12:52.0
Before the meeting kahapon
12:54.0
Ng itong mga tatlong leaders na yan, the question was
12:56.0
Which one is Australia gonna get?
12:58.0
Is it gonna get the Virginia-class? Is it gonna get the Astute-class?
13:00.0
Interestingly, what happened was that
13:02.0
The decision was to develop a new generation
13:04.0
Submarine altogether
13:06.0
Building on the existing
13:08.0
Platforms of the United Kingdom
13:10.0
So, ito ay magiging
13:12.0
Royce-Royce, cutting-edge powered
13:16.0
And the submarine, I think, is expected to come
13:20.0
20 years almost, right?
13:24.0
Now, sa military, at first may tinitawag na
13:26.0
Intermediate capabilities, so that means
13:28.0
Habang naghihintay tayo ng
13:30.0
Daratima, new submarines
13:32.0
E, anong gagawin ng Australia?
13:34.0
Because pinapa-retire na nila yung mga luma nilang
13:36.0
Submarines na ginawa nung
13:38.0
Towards the end of the, you know, Soviet Union
13:40.0
And Cold War era. So, one of the things
13:42.0
That they looked at, and this is why this meeting
13:44.0
In San Diego was very important, mga kameta
13:46.0
Is because the U.S.
13:48.0
You see, U.S., yes, may allies
13:50.0
Siya, pero the U.S., at the end of the day
13:52.0
There are certain things they don't share to allies
13:54.0
So, for instance, the F-22
13:56.0
Fighter, guys, is a
13:58.0
Fifth generation fighter that only U.S. uses
14:00.0
The F-14 fighter, you may be familiar with that
14:02.0
Sa Top Gun, etc., they only shared it
14:06.0
But this country turned out to become
14:08.0
America's enemy later on, of course, it's in the
14:10.0
Middle East, right? So, F-14
14:12.0
Was really just shared with one country, that's it
14:16.0
Fifth generation fighter was developed so that they can
14:18.0
Share a fifth generation fighter technology
14:20.0
With a lot of countries, but not the core element
14:22.0
With everyone, kaya nga Turkey lumabas
14:24.0
And Turkey made its own, you know
14:26.0
Fighter jet project. So, what we're
14:28.0
Looking at, mga kameta, dito is
14:30.0
Something very, very interesting because
14:32.0
The U.S. right now is
14:36.0
Revisiting its policy because for a very
14:38.0
Long time, even the closest allies
14:40.0
Were not able to enter
14:44.0
Of Virginian-class submarines because it's
14:46.0
A very advanced technology, dun sa propeller
14:48.0
Side, towards the end side
14:50.0
Parang off-limit yan sa any, even
14:52.0
The closest allies, etc.
14:54.0
But now, under this new deal
14:56.0
Mga kameta, they're looking at the possibility
15:00.0
At least three, up to five
15:04.0
Virginian-class submarines over the next decade
15:08.0
Meron ng advanced submarines
15:10.0
Nang Australia. So, some big
15:12.0
Big things are happening dito, mga kameta
15:14.0
Very, very interesting. Very, very big things
15:16.0
Are happening here. So, that clearly
15:20.0
Mga kameta, that the United
15:24.0
Reconsidering some of its major
15:26.0
National security policy, especially restrictions
15:28.0
On technology transfer
15:30.0
Because I don't know if the U.S. will still
15:32.0
Primarily think about itself more than anyone else
15:34.0
Allies are there to augment America's
15:36.0
Position and its version of international
15:38.0
Security. But now
15:40.0
The U.S. is showing its willingness
15:42.0
To even share, literally
15:44.0
Share its most advanced submarines
15:46.0
So, some Americans, I imagine, nagreklaman
15:48.0
May mga kaibigan tayo dyan sa
15:50.0
Twitter kung saan nagreklamo sila na
15:52.0
Wait lang. Parang problematik ito
15:54.0
Because baka yung U.S. naman ang magkakulang
15:56.0
Ng submarines. Kasi ilang-ilang lang. They only have
15:58.0
3 or 3, 4 dozens of that Virginia-class
16:00.0
And then they're gonna give 3 or 5 of that to the
16:02.0
To the Australians. And then
16:04.0
Paano kung sila mismo kailangan nila yan? So,
16:06.0
That's gonna be an interesting debate for quite some time. But
16:08.0
In the meantime, Australia
16:10.0
Is putting aside close to 300 billion
16:12.0
Dollars over the next two decades to develop
16:14.0
The next generation ones and acquire
16:16.0
Also new submarines, nuclear
16:20.0
From America. So, the Virginia-class
16:22.0
In the meantime, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
16:24.0
And then they're gonna go for the
16:26.0
Next generation platform
16:28.0
Based on the astute class, the British
16:30.0
Class based on Rolls-Royce technology
16:32.0
That's what they're gonna
16:34.0
Look at. So, very, very
16:36.0
Interesting. Because what Australia wants to do is to be able to
16:38.0
Project power on a sustained basis
16:40.0
In your face level, way
16:42.0
Beyond the immediate shores of Australia
16:44.0
Way beyond South Pacific, well
16:46.0
Into the South China Sea, potentially
16:48.0
Taiwan Straits, Philippines Sea, among others
16:50.0
So, this has direct implications sa atin, mga kameta
16:52.0
Because again, look at our
16:56.0
We're smack right in the middle
16:58.0
Of this theater, right? This very
17:00.0
Important theater. So, you can look at it
17:02.0
So, and of course, if Australia is gonna send
17:04.0
Mga kameta, yung kanilang submarines, they'll have
17:06.0
To pass through Southeast Asia. Unless they wanna go
17:08.0
From the other side ng pagganan, of course they can do that
17:10.0
But a lot of the sea lanes, so you can see
17:12.0
Here in the picture, mga kameta, yung sea lanes
17:14.0
Passes through Indonesia, Celebes Sea
17:16.0
Sulusi, Malacca, whatever
17:18.0
And then goes through Southern Philippines
17:20.0
And then goes up to the Philippine Sea
17:22.0
Going towards Taiwan, etc. So, these are
17:24.0
Very, very busy, important sea lines of
17:26.0
Communications, no? And a lot of this will
17:28.0
So, in short, mga kameta, ASEAN will be front
17:30.0
And center here because
17:32.0
We're kinda in the middle of this, right?
17:34.0
In the case of the Philippines, we're more than in the middle of this
17:36.0
We're already on the front line. And we're on the
17:38.0
Front line in coordination
17:42.0
And the United States. So, you have two trilaterals
17:44.0
Coming in. One trilateral alliance
17:46.0
Or tripartite alliance, AUKUS
17:48.0
Australia, UK, US. That's
17:50.0
Pretty well developed, institutionalized one
17:52.0
High leveling technology
17:54.0
Sharing ngayon. The second one, not
17:56.0
As developed yet, still a
17:58.0
Tripartite security framework is being worked out
18:02.0
Para lang medyo masabay niya yung AUKUS
18:04.0
So, Japan, Philippine, United States
18:06.0
So, the JAFOS one, mga kameta
18:10.0
It may not have the kind of
18:14.0
And the publicity stunts
18:16.0
That we see with AUKUS or the
18:18.0
Nuclear submarine, all of those stuff
18:20.0
But it's very important because as I said
18:22.0
Tignan niyo napakalapit ang
18:24.0
Japan and Philippines sa Taiwan
18:26.0
And obviously, Philippines is also
18:28.0
On the front line when it comes to the South China Sea issue
18:30.0
Right? And of course, Japan also has
18:32.0
Its own direct problems with China over Senkaku
18:34.0
In the East China Sea. So, we're
18:36.0
Directly at the very front line
18:38.0
So, this alternative trilateral is also
18:40.0
Something going to be very important
18:42.0
And while the submarine for Australia will be coming
18:44.0
In the next 20 years, a war could happen over Taiwan
18:46.0
In the next 2 years, right?
18:48.0
Or actually next year, if ever
18:50.0
Taiwan goes and elects a crazy
18:52.0
Person and provokes China and all of that
18:54.0
Although I don't want to do victim blame because I don't know if the threat
18:56.0
Is coming from China, not from Taiwan, right?
18:58.0
So, let's look at this
19:00.0
So, what I'm arguing
19:02.0
Kung titignan niya yung article natin sa
19:04.0
Center for Strategic and International Studies
19:06.0
By the way, I write every word, right? So, don't try to say
19:08.0
I don't write one. I've been published
19:10.0
With the Chinese, with the Russians
19:12.0
Everyone has published me, alright? I write every
19:14.0
Different places because, you know, wala naman time
19:16.0
We're just looking at analysis facts and different angles
19:18.0
And of course, I also write for South China Morning Post
19:20.0
Which is based in Hong Kong, right?
19:24.0
This article, please check this out
19:26.0
Because this is where I discuss more and more
19:28.0
The trilateral, right? Especially under
19:30.0
Marcos Jr. because what's happening
19:32.0
Here, mga kameta, is
19:34.0
Philippines and Japan together with the US
19:36.0
Are coming together. In fact
19:38.0
What's happening here is that all of these
19:40.0
Trilateral alliances are converging
19:42.0
Again, at different levels
19:44.0
At different pace, at different level of institutionalization
19:46.0
But the ultimate idea
19:48.0
Here, mga kameta, is yung tinatawag na
19:50.0
Integrated deterrence
19:52.0
You know, the term for that, mga kameta, is
19:54.0
Integrated deterrence
19:56.0
The idea is very simple. Hindi kailangan
19:58.0
Ng America na one-on-one niya
20:02.0
One-on-one niya yung mga
20:06.0
Actually, if you look at it, China has an advantage
20:08.0
Over US dito sa region natin
20:10.0
Because this is their region, this is their
20:12.0
Backyard. They can concentrate all of their
20:14.0
Forces here, much of their naval capability
20:16.0
While US is dispersed all around the world
20:18.0
And if you look, if you use
20:20.0
Purchasing power parity, actually
20:22.0
China has as much defense
20:26.0
I mean, not as much, but similar levels
20:28.0
At least two-thirds defense spending as US
20:30.0
But the regional, so they can concentrate it. I'll just show you
20:32.0
Some data so that you can see where I'm coming from
20:34.0
Mga kameta. So this is the concept of
20:36.0
Integrated deterrence. It's very important
20:38.0
The idea is that you work together with your allies
20:40.0
Right? To deter US
20:46.0
I just need to bring this out
20:48.0
Para ma-appreciate yung sinasabi natin na
20:50.0
How powerful actually China is
20:52.0
If you look at just China's
20:56.0
Face-to-face with US in our region
20:58.0
Alone. So this is a very interesting
21:00.0
Graph that I'll show
21:04.0
Just for you to see, hindi pitsugin talagang
21:06.0
China. Malakas talagang China
21:08.0
In fairness, and they're really, really developing their capabilities
21:10.0
Kaya nga, ang US ay hindi
21:12.0
Nag-re-relize sa sarili lang
21:14.0
They're working through a network
21:16.0
Of alliances, which China doesn't have
21:18.0
Like who are allies of China, really? Like Russia is already
21:20.0
Bugged down there
21:22.0
They're like kawawa, I mean nag-bug-bug na bug-bug sila
21:24.0
Dan. Who else? North Korea?
21:26.0
No, I don't think so. I was in North Korea a few years
21:28.0
Ago. They're not really
21:30.0
Inis na inis sila sa China kasi over-dependent
21:32.0
So this is actually the actual spending
21:34.0
So if you use the purchasing power parity
21:36.0
China and United States defense spending
21:38.0
Overall are not that different
21:40.0
So the lower one you can see there, that's the nominal
21:42.0
Which is around 200 billion
21:44.0
But if you use purchasing power parity, it could be 400 billion
21:46.0
Up to 600 billion, or even more
21:48.0
In fact, there's a lot of secret
21:50.0
Spending that we're not very aware of
21:52.0
So China is big, big in terms of
21:56.0
They're not foolish to leave
21:58.0
Why should we leave?
22:00.0
You have allies here who also have concerns
22:02.0
With China. So that's where
22:04.0
This Jaffus comes in the picture
22:08.0
Philippines. So Jaffus
22:10.0
Is there on top, and then AUKUS
22:12.0
Is coming from below, and then the idea is that
22:14.0
These trilaterals can work together. Now, I didn't mention
22:16.0
The Quad because that's important
22:18.0
Because Quad very much relies
22:20.0
On India. But India
22:22.0
Has a very, very different outlook on the world
22:24.0
They want a multipolar world, they want to be
22:26.0
One of the pillars of power. They don't want to be part of
22:28.0
A US plan. They also have a very great
22:30.0
Relationship with Russia, but they have problems
22:32.0
With China. So there's some overlap with
22:34.0
The US and all, but not that much on other areas
22:36.0
While Philippines is a US ally
22:38.0
Japan is a US ally, UK is a US ally
22:40.0
Australia is UK's ally, and then
22:42.0
Philippines is developing VFA with Japan, already
22:44.0
Has a sales and visiting forces agreement
22:46.0
With Australia, and who knows what's in the
22:48.0
Works with UK and other countries. So this is
22:50.0
The fascinating picture we're looking
22:52.0
At the Kmeta. And that's why
22:54.0
Really, these are huge things that are happening
22:56.0
In our region, and we have to really pay attention
22:58.0
To these things. Anyway,
23:00.0
I hope... Wait, where are we?
23:04.0
Where's my studio?
23:10.0
It's gone. Anyway,
23:12.0
Are you still there? Let me check.
23:16.0
What's going on here?
23:34.0
Anyways, thank you very much
23:36.0
Kmeta for checking us here.
23:38.0
So this is the situation that we're
23:40.0
Trying to really break down. I think my internet
23:42.0
Is a bit weak here. So I really appreciate
23:44.0
To the Kmeta watching us. I really,
23:46.0
Really appreciate it. You're very, very
23:48.0
Kind of you for watching us, for checking us
23:50.0
Out. I won't be able to come out here,
23:52.0
But let me check some of the comments
23:54.0
Here, directly from here.
23:56.0
But I hope you see the value. Don't worry, I'm going to post
23:58.0
Some of our articles on this issue.
24:00.0
Again, yeah, see, I enjoy
24:02.0
This kind of discussion. I don't have time
24:04.0
For the chit-chat
24:06.0
Discussions and all of that. I mean,
24:08.0
We're trying to just help the country.
24:10.0
I give advice, et cetera, et cetera,
24:12.0
And what the trolls are saying. But anyway,
24:14.0
That's who I am. Sometimes you have
24:16.0
To ruffle some feathers in order to get a discussion
24:18.0
Going. But anyway,
24:20.0
Let's park that for now. Later, we'll talk
24:22.0
About Kpock, Teleserye, et cetera.
24:24.0
This is serious, guys. This is serious.
24:26.0
I don't think anyone else has really mentioned this openly,
24:28.0
But I'm the first one who's saying two
24:30.0
Trilaterals are coming together and converging.
24:34.0
Fascinating. Very interesting.
24:36.0
So let's see how China is going to respond.
24:38.0
But let's also discuss, maybe next time, Kmeta,
24:40.0
Also how the other ASEAN countries are going to respond.
24:42.0
Although most of them are not going to be too relevant
24:44.0
To this. I mean, not everyone is going to be a star
24:46.0
In this show, right? There are going to be a few stars
24:48.0
And that's really what matters. But obviously, Indonesia
24:50.0
Is going to make some noise. But the one I'm really watching
24:52.0
Here is Singapore because Singapore has a lot of
24:54.0
Defense agreements and is giving a lot of defense access,
24:56.0
Naval access to Americans, also the British,
24:58.0
Et cetera. So Singapore will also
25:00.0
Be part of this discussion, something that we have
25:02.0
To discuss a lot. And as you know,
25:04.0
Of course, Singapore became very important to the US
25:06.0
When the Americans left the Philippines
25:10.0
Bases were closed for permanent
25:12.0
Bases to the United States. So anyway, let me
25:14.0
Say very much thank you to all of you.
25:16.0
We'll have K-pop, J-pop later. Thank you to
25:18.0
Ma'am Jocelyn Lumberia as always,
25:22.0
No. I don't agree lesser bad versus
25:24.0
Lesser good. In the same way,
25:26.0
I don't agree it's good versus...
25:28.0
Let's be very clear about it, alright?
25:30.0
Ramaldes said, right? What do we want?
25:32.0
Right? Do we want
25:34.0
To be part of a free and democratic world?
25:36.0
Imperfect, problematic, sure.
25:38.0
Or we want to be kind of,
25:40.0
You know, you already know this. Connect the dots, right?
25:42.0
And at the same time, as I said,
25:44.0
This is the game of deterrence. The idea is that
25:46.0
If we're all strong,
25:48.0
If our alliances are strong,
25:50.0
China will wake up. Because China is rational.
25:52.0
Of course, they're not perfect. They can always
25:54.0
Make mistakes. We saw crazy things happen
25:56.0
In the past. The same way, you know, all powers,
25:58.0
Major superpowers do bullying and crazy stuff.
26:00.0
But the thing is, the stronger you are,
26:02.0
The harder for the other side
26:04.0
To even contemplate actual invasion.
26:06.0
But at the very minimum, you should be prepared.
26:08.0
And the more alliances, crescotting
26:10.0
Alliances, the easier the preparation,
26:12.0
The smoother it's going to be. In fact, there's
26:14.0
A military doctrine there that we can discuss soon
26:16.0
That's called distributed lethality.
26:18.0
The idea is that you don't want to concentrate a war
26:20.0
In one theater. You want to have multiple
26:22.0
Points of intervention so that
26:24.0
If it goes down to war,
26:26.0
In the concentrated forces of US
26:28.0
And its allies. So you have multiple points
26:30.0
Of pushback against China.
26:32.0
And in that sense, you make it very difficult.
26:34.0
Nonetheless, mga kameta, we have to also
26:36.0
Discuss the day after. Because a lot of war
26:38.0
Games are showing that US can
26:40.0
Together with Philippines and Japan and some allies,
26:42.0
Especially Australia, can beat a Chinese invasion
26:44.0
Back. But the problem will be
26:46.0
What if, what happens when
26:48.0
China imposes, after
26:50.0
Some initial wave defeat,
26:52.0
Total embargo on Taiwan. Then what's going to happen
26:54.0
Next? And that's where Philippines will be very
26:56.0
Important. That's where Japan will be very important.
26:58.0
And for me, that's why the best
27:00.0
Metaphor I've seen is
27:02.0
You know, I'm not an alcoholic, but
27:04.0
The term they use is cork in the bottle.
27:06.0
So Taiwan is like the cork in the bottle.
27:08.0
If Taiwan goes, all bets are off.
27:10.0
All bets are off. That's why
27:12.0
Taiwan is extremely important in terms of
27:14.0
Making sure that we keep
27:16.0
Situation together. And as I said
27:18.0
Mga kameta, pwede natin pag-usapan niya.
27:20.0
Taiwan is responsible
27:22.0
For more than one-third, 37%
27:24.0
Of global computing power.
27:26.0
So a lot of computer chips, conductors,
27:28.0
Processors that we're using in our phones,
27:30.0
In our laptops, etc.
27:32.0
In our cars, especially modern cars,
27:36.0
A lot of that could be coming from Taiwan.
27:38.0
So if Taiwan goes down or something huge
27:40.0
Happens there, bugan world economy.
27:42.0
All bets are definitely off. And by some
27:44.0
Estimate, China could see a 20-30%
27:46.0
Shrink in its GDP,
27:48.0
Which is huge. Because China's GDP
27:50.0
Is what, $10 trillion?
27:52.0
So China could lose $2-3 trillion
27:54.0
In productivity if a war happens there.
27:56.0
The US is going to see also
27:58.0
5-10% potentially recession there.
28:00.0
So this is going to be serious.
28:02.0
So if you want peace, prepare for war.
28:04.0
Because if you're prepared,
28:06.0
Bullies are going to blink.
28:08.0
As simple as that.
28:10.0
Now, there's still risk
28:14.0
But that's why you have to be prepared.
28:18.0
So better be prepared, and better try to deter it.
28:20.0
Than just, naka-mang-mang ka lang dyan.
28:22.0
Naka-tunga nga ka lang dyan.
28:26.0
Bug-bug ka rin naman.
28:28.0
Kasi US ally pa rin tayo, at anlapit natin.
28:30.0
That's what I'm saying.
28:32.0
So either you choose to end our alliance with the US,
28:34.0
Or panindigan mo na yan.
28:36.0
You cannot have it both ways.
28:38.0
Neutrality doesn't work when you already have a treaty alliance with the US.
28:40.0
And Taiwan is just right next to you.
28:42.0
As simple as that.
28:44.0
Thank you very much mga kamayata.
28:46.0
I'll keep it here.
28:48.0
Hindi ko malulot sa phone ko eh.
28:50.0
But again, thank you so much sa lahat ng mga nag-comment.
28:52.0
Thank you kay Ma'am Annie Gonzalez,
28:56.0
For your comments and suggestions.
28:58.0
Hindi naman suggestions, comments lang.
29:00.0
Next level ang porman natin today.
29:02.0
Bakit naman? Ano lang naman ah?
29:04.0
Parang pang director.
29:06.0
Parang ang probinsyano,
29:08.0
Coco Martin style tayo ngayon.
29:10.0
Sabi ni Hey Valentin, wala tayong choice.
29:12.0
Benvenido, sabi niya.
29:14.0
Thanks Richard, of course, thank you.
29:16.0
Nice info, sabi ni Grace.
29:18.0
Of course, mga kamayata, sinisimplify ko lang yan.
29:20.0
So if you want a more in-depth analysis,
29:22.0
Thank you also kay Mitch Tenction for joining us.
29:24.0
Thank you also kay Rhea Tado,
29:26.0
From the United Arab Emirates.
29:28.0
Marami tayong mga kabayang joining us from all across the world.
29:30.0
Thank you also kay Kandara Samar,
29:32.0
From Kandara Samar, si Yonon Oiren.
29:34.0
Thank you for joining us also.
29:36.0
Ayan, si Esguerra, mayroon siyang vote.
29:38.0
Ay nako, yung constitutional change.
29:40.0
Patay. Isa pa ang usapan yan.
29:42.0
Baligan natin yan. Baligan natin yan.
29:44.0
Joining us from Masbate, si JV.
29:46.0
Marami tayong mga kamayata na nagmamahal sa atin dito.
29:48.0
Kay Noemi Tablate joining us from
29:52.0
Kay Madrigal Heya. Nakaka-distract po sir yung looks mo.
29:54.0
What's that supposed to mean?
29:56.0
Sige mag-shades na lang tayo mga kamayata.
29:58.0
Alright. Thank you very much mga kamayata.
30:00.0
Talk to you guys soon and
