Close
 


PUTIN, DUTERTE, ICC: AN ANALYSIS
Hide Subtitles
Click any subtitle word to view Tagalog.com dictionary results.
Computer Shortcuts: Left / Right arrows to jump 2 seconds back or forward. +Enter or Space to toggle Play/Pause button. Full Screen Mode

Richard Heydarian VLOGS
  Mute  
Run time: 34:48
Has AI Subtitles



Video Transcript / Subtitles:( AI generated. About AI subtitles » )
00:00.0
Ayan na! Ayan na! Mga kameta! Kamusta kayo dyan?
00:17.0
Akala natin na maging slow news ang weekend natin and then boom!
00:22.0
Ito po yung nangyayari ngayon diba?
00:24.0
May mga major developments po tayo dito ukol sa International Criminal Court at saka yung conflict in Ukraine na may kinalaman na rin sa Pilipinas in one way or another from legal jurisdictional angle as well as from a geopolitical angle
00:44.0
And this is very interesting. So mga, I think it was around midnight last night, bago tayo mag-jog and all of that, biglang nakita ko meron yung nag-pop up na news, breaking news from New York Times, kung saan of course, we're a subscriber
01:03.0
At doon sa New York Times na yan mga kameta, talagang lumabas na ito, lumabas na there is a warrant of arrest against no less than mga kameta, no less than one of the most powerful men in the world
01:17.0
Someone who actually topped the Forbes list of most powerful men on multiple occasions throughout the years
01:24.0
And this is no less than Vladimir Putin, Russian President Vladimir Putin
01:29.0
So eto na guys, medyo next level na ito, medyo next level na ito. So tignan natin, now let me just give you a preview
01:38.0
This is important because ang Russia po, as I'll discuss later on, hindi na po siya kasama sa International Criminal Court, nag-withdraw siya ng kanyang signature from the Rome Statute
01:50.0
Actually just when President Duterte was about to become the President, you're talking about 2016, something like that, which is not long after yung Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014
02:00.0
And the attendance sanctions and other measures that were imposed against Russia back then mga kameta
02:07.0
So that's why this is important. I also had to double check this mga kameta because it looks like also not Ukraine
02:16.0
Even in Ukraine po, hindi kasama dito sa International Criminal Court, I'll show you that later on
02:23.0
So that means that the ICC is coming in and issuing a warrant of arrest against someone whose country is no longer part of the ICC
02:33.0
And the allegation is that this person has committed mass atrocities or crimes against humanity or war crimes against a country
02:40.0
Who also doesn't happen to be a member or a signatory to the Rome Statute
02:45.0
Discuss natin yan mga kameta because this is super relevant sa Pilipinas since the argument to push back against any potential investigation
02:55.0
If not issuing a warrant of arrest against members of the former Duterte administration
02:59.0
The argument there is that eh nag-withdraw na tayo e, nag-withdraw na tayo so dapat wala lang silang jurisdiction
03:05.0
Now obviously the old argument was or at least one of the prominent arguments was
03:09.0
Well at the very least ICC can investigate alleged crimes that were committed while we were a member of the ICC
03:16.0
Or we were a signatory to the Rome Statute or prior to our withdrawal of our signature
03:21.0
And then the other argument would be that actually regardless of whether you're a member or not
03:27.0
You're a signatory or not or you have withdrawn your signature when you were a member earlier
03:32.0
Pwede pa rin mag-apply yung jurisdiction ng ICC
03:34.0
Kaya mahalaga talaga ito mga kameta
03:36.0
So pag-usapan natin na mabuti sorry nag-cut dito yung kabila natin na ina-upload natin dito
03:41.0
Inaayos ko lang dito kaya biglang na-distract tayo
03:43.0
Hindi ko alam mo nangyari dito eh
03:45.0
Wait lang ha mga kameta
03:47.0
Ayusin lang natin ito para yung mga ka-YouTubers din natin makaabol din dito sa discussion natin
03:53.0
Although kaka-upload ko lang mga kameta yung video namin ni Mama OG
04:01.0
I-upload ko rin sa inyo guys dito soon
04:03.0
Pakicheck also i-upload natin yung mga
04:07.0
Medyo interesting interview din kasi yan eh
04:09.0
But just when I thought mga kameta na magiging discussion natin will be very
04:16.0
How should I put it?
04:17.0
Very internally or domestically oriented
04:20.0
I'm multitasking here
04:22.0
Just when I thought everything is gonna be very internally oriented
04:26.0
Or baka naman slow news tayo sa weekend
04:28.0
Ito boom nangyari ito mga kameta
04:30.0
Which is itong ICC
04:32.0
So let's go to this
04:34.0
Pag-usapan natin yan mga kameta
04:36.0
Para ma-appreciate nyo yung konteksto ng pinag-usapan natin
04:39.0
Let's talk about this
04:41.0
Let me show a number of things
04:44.0
So first of all let's go and let's analyze what's happening
04:47.0
In fact last night yung president ng ICC was also international news
04:50.0
Chinecheck natin yung kanyang statements
04:52.0
So big deal talaga sa kanila yan
04:54.0
So kung may nagsasabi na
04:56.0
Ayan itong mga to wala silang
05:00.0
Wala silang audacity to take on big guys
05:02.0
Remember yung isang accusation lamang sa ICC
05:04.0
Is that oh they just go after you know leaders of African countries
05:07.0
Weak countries, peripheral countries
05:09.0
Oh well now they have gone against no less than
05:11.0
Supposed superpower
05:13.0
Supposed because well Russia's economy is not really
05:17.0
Barely among top 10 in the world
05:20.0
And it's military
05:21.0
Well nakita natin how it's performing against Ukraine
05:23.0
So I'm not sure about the superpower argument
05:26.0
Although of course they have the biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons
05:29.0
Next to the United States
05:31.0
So that kind of makes them a superpower
05:34.0
But more or less in many other ways
05:36.0
Medyo malabo
05:37.0
Now let's check the details of this report mga kameta
05:42.0
Para ma-appreciate natin yung nangyari
05:44.0
Or yung relevance na nangyari mga kameta
05:47.0
Let me just go to this
05:50.0
Ayan talaga e
05:52.0
Ayan talaga
05:53.0
Okay
05:54.0
So the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant
05:59.0
Kahapon against Russian President Vladimir Putin
06:03.0
Ang accusation po laban sa kanya is war crimes
06:06.0
Ito yung sinabi natin kanina diba
06:08.0
So generally what we're talking about here are mass atrocities
06:11.0
So war crimes, ethnic cleansing
06:13.0
Of course genocide yung pinakagrabe
06:16.0
Or isa sa mga pinakagrabe
06:17.0
Katulad nangyari sa Rwanda
06:19.0
Katulad nangyari sa South Sudan
06:21.0
And of course katulad nangyari ng World War II
06:24.0
Against the religious minority na inatake ng Nazi Germany
06:30.0
Not to mention also against Polish and Slavic people during the Second World War
06:35.0
So its first warrant for Ukraine
06:37.0
Related sa Ukraine
06:38.0
The ICC called for Putin's arrest on suspicion of unlawful deportation of children
06:43.0
And unlawful transfer of people from the territory of Ukraine to the Russian Federation
06:48.0
Ayan sa Kremlin naman the arrest warrant against Putin was outrageous
06:52.0
But meaningless with respect to Russia
06:54.0
Let's discuss it a little bit more
06:56.0
Ayan kay Dimitri Peskov, ang Kremlin spokesperson
06:59.0
At yung parang hariroken nila
07:01.0
Russia found the very questions raised by the ICC's court outrageous and unacceptable
07:06.0
But noted that Russia, like many other countries, did not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC anyway
07:11.0
So very similar argument, Ruiz
07:13.0
Used by sa mga katatay, diba?
07:16.0
Now, and accordingly, any decision of this kind are null and void for the Russian Federation from the point of view of the law
07:22.0
As if Putin now feared traveling to other countries that recognize the ICC and might therefore arrest him
07:27.0
Sabi ni Peskov, I have nothing to add on this subject
07:30.0
That's all we want to say
07:32.0
Niyan ang interesting guys
07:34.0
Kasi this is gonna be the difficulty, mga kamay
07:37.0
This is gonna be a difficulty
07:39.0
Okay, so now let's look at
07:41.0
First geopolitical and then the legal aspect of this
07:45.0
Now before going that, let me also show why this is relevant to the Philippines
07:48.0
Because if you look at the case of the Philippines, the arguments are quite familiar
07:52.0
If not, very similar
08:00.0
Now obviously, from a jurisdictional standpoint
08:03.0
You can look at the argument, for instance, of complementarity
08:07.0
The idea is that the ICC can't just enter
08:11.0
They can only enter if there's an evidence to suggest that domestic or national judicial institutions are not doing their job
08:18.0
In terms of upholding the basic human rights of the citizens being targeted
08:22.0
Now, this could be due to war
08:25.0
This could be due to civil war
08:27.0
Or this could be due to unwillingness of a relatively functioning state
08:32.0
To undertake necessary investigations to get to the bottom of the matter
08:36.0
So complementarity means once it's determined that local or national institutions are incapable of
08:42.0
Or are unwilling to properly investigate mass atrocities, allegations, and charges
08:48.0
That's where papasok ang ICC
08:50.0
Now, alam natin itong kaso
08:53.0
Laban sa dating administration or top officials of the previous administration dun sa ICC
09:00.0
This has been going on for what? 4 or 5 years at least, diba?
09:04.0
5 years na yata yan
09:05.0
So this has been going on for quite some time
09:08.0
While the war in Ukraine has been pretty new
09:11.0
I mean, it's not pretty at all
09:13.0
But it's quite new, diba?
09:14.0
So parang the other year lang yan
09:16.0
Now, okay
09:17.0
First of all, let me just give some first impressions here na lang
09:22.0
So, one thing we have to keep in mind is, mga kamay-ta
09:25.0
This says that ang ICC pa, hindi na natakot to go after non-colored
09:29.0
I mean, essentially, this is a white man we're talking about
09:33.0
And a leader of a superpower
09:34.0
Or a supposed superpower
09:35.0
At least a major country, right?
09:37.0
So ang accusation na ICC is just a white man going after the colored people, African people, etc
09:43.0
Well, now it's not really making as much sense, right?
09:46.0
Because, you know, you can see it yourself, right?
09:50.0
The other thing is the accusation against ICC that it acts too slowly
09:54.0
That it lacks audacity, right?
09:57.0
And sense of urgency
09:58.0
Well, the war in Ukraine is just over a year ago
10:01.0
And it started last year, February
10:04.0
So within a year, a lot of cases were being filed
10:07.0
Especially by the Ukrainian government
10:09.0
And interestingly, Ukraine also is not part from such
10:12.0
Pag-usapan din natin yan
10:13.0
So many cases have been coming
10:14.0
So ICC is acting on that very, very expeditiously
10:20.0
So the argument that they're too slow, this goes down
10:22.0
The argument that they're just targeting Africans or post-colonial leaders
10:26.0
Well, this is coming down also
10:28.0
Because you're talking about, of course, a European white leader
10:32.0
But of course, it also raises certain other questions, mga kameta, diba?
10:36.0
One of the questions it raises is
10:40.0
Wait lang, bakit yung case of Philippines
10:42.0
That allegedly there have been tens of thousands
10:47.0
Not thousands, but tens of thousands of IJK
10:50.0
Bakit parang ang tagalong investigation process
10:52.0
While in the case of the Philippines
10:55.0
While in the case of Ukraine, wala pang one year
10:58.0
Parang meron na tayong ganito
11:00.0
Now again, this goes back to the concept of complementarity
11:03.0
Diba, pinag-usapan natin yan, mga kameta?
11:05.0
Because the Philippines is not in the midst of war
11:08.0
With any other country
11:09.0
Nor is it being invaded by another country
11:12.0
So that's why it gave the Philippines the chance to argue that
11:16.0
No, no, no, nakifunksyon pa rin naman
11:18.0
And by the way, we're also willing
11:20.0
So therefore, if you look at it, there were some token cases here
11:23.0
And they're being investigated
11:24.0
Especially kay ano
11:26.0
Of course, we're talking about
11:31.0
At least one conviction during the Duterte administration
11:34.0
Once, naalala niyo naman diba, si Kian
11:37.0
When Kian was killed
11:40.0
So the Philippine argument is that
11:42.0
We have functioning state institutions
11:44.0
And we're willing to
11:45.0
But that cannot apply to Ukraine, right?
11:47.0
Or in the case of Russia
11:48.0
Because one is an invading country
11:50.0
And another is being invaded
11:51.0
So clearly, there's no argument to be made
11:55.0
In terms of let the local courts
11:57.0
To go after alleged criminals
12:00.0
So what, like Ukrainian courts going after Putin?
12:03.0
That's not gonna work, right?
12:04.0
So it's a different case
12:05.0
And of course, we're talking about war crimes here
12:07.0
Which is quite different from
12:09.0
The allegations against the Duterte administration
12:11.0
I think it's crimes against humanity, bayan?
12:13.0
So, yun pa yung pinag-usapan natin dito
12:17.0
So, it's mass atrocity
12:19.0
Similar to allegations against the former administration here
12:22.0
But it's a different case
12:23.0
You're also talking about war crimes here
12:25.0
You're talking about ongoing conflict
12:27.0
You're talking about Ukraine besieged and under invasion
12:29.0
You're talking about warrant arrest against a country
12:32.0
Which is invading the other country
12:33.0
So, the idea of waiting for local courts to do their job
12:36.0
Doesn't make sense here, diba?
12:38.0
And urgency in a sense that
12:40.0
Well, it's so easy to
12:42.0
I mean, the evidence is right in your face, right?
12:45.0
So easily, you can find the evidence
12:47.0
In the case of Ukraine
12:48.0
The Ukrainian authorities are cooperating
12:50.0
International observers can go here
12:52.0
Was it the Bukha massacre?
12:53.0
People can go in and investigate
12:55.0
It's there
12:56.0
There's no resistance from the Ukrainian authorities
12:59.0
When it comes to looking for access to evidence
13:03.0
Or at least, if not gathering evidence per se
13:06.0
Talking to witnesses, etc
13:08.0
So that explains perhaps
13:11.0
Or that could be the argument
13:14.0
Vis-a-vis why
13:16.0
Why did the ICC act so quickly?
13:46.0
Then why did the ICC act so quickly?
14:16.0
And they're more than open to cooperate
14:18.0
And to get international help
14:20.0
To make sure that justice will be done here
14:23.0
So that most likely explains why, mga kameta
14:26.0
The ICC acted quickly
14:29.0
Compared to the case of the Philippines
14:31.0
Because, of course, for me again
14:32.0
At the very beginning
14:34.0
It's like, this is fast
14:35.0
But why in the Philippines
14:36.0
It's been a few years and it's still not there?
14:38.0
But if you actually analyze the case
14:40.0
If you go deep into the case
14:42.0
And you understand the circumstances
14:44.0
Then you'll appreciate
14:45.0
Why this supposed discrepancy
14:47.0
So it's not necessarily a double standard case
14:50.0
In fact, it's not
14:51.0
It's more a case of
14:53.0
You have more access to the evidence
14:55.0
And you have totally a war situation here
14:57.0
While the other case in the Philippines is
14:59.0
Because our government has been dribbling for quite some time
15:03.0
Because their argument is
15:04.0
Why did you enter?
15:05.0
There's no war
15:06.0
It's not war crimes
15:07.0
You're talking about allegations of crime
15:09.0
Against our own people
15:10.0
So wait for us
15:11.0
We are going to do our investigation
15:13.0
So the debate now
15:14.0
The back and forth now, Kameta
15:16.0
Is
15:18.0
Whether the ICC can still exercise jurisdiction
15:21.0
Or should exercise jurisdiction
15:24.0
Or whether the Philippines is already doing its job
15:27.0
So this is the latest argument that came out from the ICC
15:30.0
I'm sorry
15:31.0
The latest argument that came out from the Philippines
15:34.0
Let's talk about that
15:35.0
So let me also quote our officials
15:38.0
Because
15:40.0
Okay
15:41.0
Before that, obviously
15:42.0
Another argument is
15:44.0
Because we're withdrawing
15:46.0
Okay
15:47.0
That's right
15:48.0
Let me show this
15:49.0
And then we'll talk about that
15:51.0
Because I have to show you what I'm talking about
15:53.0
Because the next argument we have to make
15:55.0
So first is the broader geopolitical moral issue
15:58.0
That we're going to talk about
16:00.0
We talked about
16:01.0
The other one is
16:04.0
The jurisdictional issue
16:05.0
So
16:07.0
A few weeks ago
16:08.0
This is the argument of our government
16:11.0
Their point is
16:12.0
The ICC should back off
16:15.0
So the prosecutors from the International Criminal Court
16:18.0
Are not welcome to investigate the Philippine soil
16:21.0
About the Duterte administration
16:23.0
Alleged crime against humanity
16:24.0
As there is, quote
16:25.0
No mechanism that allows such a probe
16:27.0
For such a probe
16:28.0
Probe
16:29.0
It should be for such a probe
16:31.0
This is according to Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Ramulla
16:35.0
The Philippines
16:36.0
According to Secretary Ramulla
16:37.0
Has its own legal system
16:38.0
That can address the country's problems
16:40.0
And there's no justification for ICC to enter
16:42.0
To investigate the killings
16:43.0
Linked to former President Duterte's so-called war on drugs
16:46.0
So this is a direct quotation from Secretary Ramulla
16:48.0
If the ICC insists on coming in
16:50.0
Let me tell you this
16:51.0
There's no mechanism by which the ICC can come in
16:53.0
Because this was not contemplated
16:55.0
In the drafting of the law of the treaty
16:57.0
Before we became a signatory
16:59.0
For a few years
17:00.0
From which we withdrew
17:02.0
Right
17:03.0
According to him
17:04.0
If we want to put
17:05.0
If they want to put into themselves
17:07.0
Or rather put into their own hands
17:09.0
The judicial powers of this country
17:11.0
Then they will be committing a violation
17:13.0
Of our legal system
17:14.0
Or by that matter
17:15.0
Our sovereignty
17:18.0
According to Ramulla
17:19.0
Just a fair warning
17:20.0
Do not monkey around with our legal system
17:22.0
There's no accepted mechanism
17:24.0
So how they can come in
17:25.0
I see no way for them to enter the country
17:27.0
So this is the argument of the current administration
17:31.0
Ramulla also said that
17:32.0
The move of administration
17:33.0
Allied lawmakers
17:34.0
To defend former president Duterte
17:35.0
From the ICC investigation
17:37.0
Is natural
17:38.0
Remember
17:39.0
Duterte and Paolo Arroyo
17:40.0
Also came up with a number of people
17:41.0
I think more than a dozen
17:42.0
Who supported him
17:44.0
In backing off the ICC
17:46.0
The ICC is a political body in many ways
17:47.0
It is not just a body for justice
17:49.0
But it's meant to forward a political agenda
17:50.0
For many people
17:51.0
Why do I say this?
17:52.0
Because we are a country with a legal system
17:53.0
That can function by itself
17:54.0
And they want to take over some of our functions
17:56.0
Just to criticize the way we run our country before
17:59.0
That's not right
18:00.0
That's why we will not bow down
18:01.0
To their political agenda
18:02.0
So clearly the argument here is
18:03.0
This is all political
18:04.0
Right?
18:05.0
And of course the other argument
18:06.0
Mga kameta is
18:07.0
There is no jurisdiction
18:08.0
Because we are withdrawing from the ICC
18:10.0
Well
18:11.0
This is where things get tricky
18:12.0
Because if you look at it
18:13.0
Mga kameta
18:14.0
Russia withdrew
18:16.0
Similar to the Philippines
18:17.0
In fact, a few years earlier
18:18.0
Their membership
18:20.0
In the ICC
18:21.0
And also Ukraine
18:22.0
Is not
18:26.0
So this is it mga kameta
18:27.0
Let's show that
18:28.0
So
18:33.0
So actually if you look at it
18:34.0
Similar to the Philippines
18:38.0
Nag-withdraw din ng
18:43.0
Russia
18:44.0
From the ICC
18:45.0
This is when
18:46.0
You know
18:47.0
They were
18:48.0
Facing a lot of pressure
18:49.0
After the invasion of Crimea
18:51.0
So this is back in 2016
18:52.0
Russia said
18:53.0
It's formally withdrawing signature
18:54.0
From the founding statute
18:55.0
Of the International Criminal Court
18:56.0
The Rome Statute
18:57.0
A day after the court published a report
18:59.0
Classifying the Russian annexation
19:01.0
Of Crimea
19:02.0
As an occupation
19:04.0
So that's it
19:05.0
Union context
19:06.0
Back then also
19:07.0
Three African countries
19:08.0
Who were full members
19:09.0
Of the ICC
19:10.0
South Africa
19:11.0
Burundi and Gambia
19:12.0
Also signaled their intention
19:13.0
To pull out
19:14.0
Falling complaints
19:15.0
That the ICC prosecutor
19:16.0
Focused excessively
19:17.0
On the African continent
19:18.0
This is what we said
19:19.0
Right?
19:20.0
So
19:22.0
Again
19:23.0
The argument that
19:24.0
Well there is no jurisdiction
19:25.0
Of the ICC
19:26.0
Or the ICC won't let them in
19:27.0
Because we are withdrawing
19:28.0
Well
19:29.0
Russia has been out
19:30.0
Of the picture
19:31.0
For quite some time
19:32.0
And yet
19:33.0
They went with this
19:34.0
Warrant of arrest
19:35.0
So the precedence here is
19:36.0
Very very important
19:37.0
Mga kameta
19:38.0
The other thing also
19:39.0
To keep in mind here
19:40.0
Is
19:41.0
Also Ukraine
19:42.0
Well
19:43.0
Ukraine also
19:44.0
Mga kameta
19:45.0
Is not
19:46.0
So
19:47.0
You can pull
19:48.0
Let's
19:49.0
This is what we pulled
19:50.0
From the
19:51.0
From the
19:52.0
ICC
19:53.0
International Criminal Court's
19:54.0
Website
19:55.0
So it's there
19:56.0
So Ukraine is not
19:57.0
A state party
19:58.0
To the Rome Statute
19:59.0
Ukraine has twice
20:00.0
Exercised its prerogative
20:01.0
To accept the court's
20:02.0
Jurisdiction
20:03.0
Over alleged crimes
20:04.0
Under the Rome Statute
20:05.0
Occurring in its territory
20:06.0
Pursuant to article 12
20:08.0
Section 3
20:09.0
Of the statute
20:10.0
Right?
20:11.0
So the first declaration
20:12.0
Was
20:13.0
You know
20:14.0
Filed or lodged
20:15.0
Back in November 21
20:16.0
2013
20:17.0
To February
20:18.0
2020
20:19.0
22
20:20.0
2014
20:21.0
So this is perhaps
20:22.0
In relation to
20:23.0
Some of the
20:24.0
Major incidents
20:25.0
That was happening there
20:26.0
The second declaration
20:27.0
Extended this time period
20:29.0
To encompass
20:30.0
Ongoing alleged crimes
20:31.0
Committed throughout the
20:32.0
Territory of Ukraine
20:33.0
From
20:34.0
20 February
20:35.0
2014
20:36.0
Onward
20:37.0
So clearly
20:38.0
The Russian element
20:39.0
Comes in
20:40.0
So on February 28
20:41.0
2022
20:42.0
The ICC prosecutor
20:43.0
Announced he would
20:44.0
Seek authorization
20:45.0
To open an investigation
20:46.0
Into the situation
20:47.0
In Ukraine
20:48.0
On the basis
20:49.0
Of the office's
20:50.0
Earlier conclusions
20:51.0
Arising from its
20:52.0
Preliminary examination
20:53.0
Similar to the Philippines
20:54.0
And encompassing
20:55.0
Any new
20:56.0
Alleged crimes
20:57.0
Falling within
20:58.0
Jurisdiction of the court
20:59.0
So this is the
21:00.0
Context of
21:01.0
The war
21:02.0
Of Ukraine
21:03.0
War in Ukraine
21:04.0
And invasion of Ukraine
21:05.0
So again
21:06.0
We will wrap up
21:07.0
On that
21:08.0
Don't worry
21:09.0
So the jurisdictional
21:10.0
Issue here
21:11.0
Is also
21:12.0
Or the jurisdictional
21:13.0
Precedence
21:14.0
Is also important
21:15.0
Because
21:16.0
Ukraine is not a member
21:17.0
Of the Rome Statute
21:18.0
Russia withdrew
21:19.0
From the Rome Statute
21:20.0
They are no longer
21:21.0
Signatories to the ICC
21:22.0
Since 2016
21:23.0
And yet
21:24.0
This warrant of arrest
21:25.0
Came in
21:26.0
So the argument
21:27.0
Of the Philippines
21:28.0
That we withdrew
21:29.0
So you don't
21:30.0
Care about us anymore
21:31.0
Well it kind of
21:32.0
Doesn't work anymore
21:33.0
So the precedence
21:34.0
Has been already set here
21:35.0
That kind of argument
21:36.0
Is kind of flimsy
21:37.0
Right now
21:38.0
And as I said
21:39.0
The ICC already
21:40.0
In the past
21:41.0
Argued
21:42.0
That
21:43.0
Already in the past
21:44.0
Argued that
21:45.0
Even if you withdrew
21:46.0
You would still
21:47.0
Apply
21:48.0
Right
21:49.0
So
21:50.0
Now
21:51.0
The thing though
21:52.0
Is
21:53.0
Let us
21:54.0
Discuss
21:55.0
Let us
21:56.0
Discuss
21:57.0
This
21:58.0
More
21:59.0
Right
22:00.0
Now
22:01.0
There are
22:02.0
People
22:03.0
Who say
22:04.0
That
22:05.0
It's a
22:06.0
Punch in the face
22:07.0
And you won't
22:08.0
Arrest Putin
22:09.0
Of course
22:10.0
Given
22:11.0
I think
22:12.0
There's no illusion
22:13.0
That Putin
22:14.0
Will be arrested
22:15.0
Per se
22:16.0
Who's gonna
22:17.0
Arrest him
22:18.0
Right
22:19.0
So
22:20.0
I mean
22:21.0
He's the head
22:22.0
Of a nuclear
22:23.0
Power country
22:25.0
But
22:26.0
People who
22:27.0
Stop their analysis
22:28.0
At that point
22:29.0
They don't know
22:30.0
What they're talking about
22:31.0
As I said
22:32.0
First of all
22:33.0
There is a jurisdictional
22:34.0
Precedence being set here
22:35.0
So that has relevance
22:36.0
For the case of the Philippines
22:37.0
Right
22:38.0
The idea that
22:39.0
Even if you're not a member
22:40.0
Of the ICC
22:41.0
You can still
22:42.0
Enter the ICC
22:43.0
Even if you're not a member
22:44.0
Of the ICC
22:45.0
The other
22:46.0
The victim country
22:47.0
You can still
22:48.0
Enter the ICC
22:49.0
Right
22:50.0
And that
22:51.0
The ICC
22:52.0
Is not only the target
22:54.0
Obviously
22:55.0
White guy
22:56.0
Now
22:57.0
Where things
22:58.0
Get interesting
22:59.0
Is this
23:00.0
Remember
23:01.0
The argument
23:02.0
Of the fathers
23:03.0
In the
23:04.0
Arbitration
23:05.0
Award case
23:06.0
We'll be sent
23:07.0
To China
23:08.0
And we'll get
23:09.0
Imprisoned
23:10.0
No, you
23:11.0
Don't get what I'm saying
23:12.0
You don't get
23:13.0
What geopolitics
23:14.0
Is all about
23:15.0
First of all
23:16.0
When you talk about
23:17.0
Great powers
23:18.0
Prestige
23:19.0
Authority
23:20.0
And respect
23:21.0
Is very
23:22.0
Competitive
23:23.0
Field
23:24.0
Here
23:25.0
Russia
23:26.0
Is competing
23:27.0
With China
23:28.0
With US
23:29.0
With Europe
23:30.0
With Japan
23:31.0
Regionally
23:32.0
In places
23:33.0
Like the Middle East
23:34.0
It's competing
23:35.0
With Turkey
23:36.0
It's competing
23:37.0
With Saudi
23:38.0
Now it's competing
23:39.0
Also with China
23:40.0
And United States
23:41.0
Etc
23:42.0
So in that
23:43.0
Very competitive
23:44.0
Field
23:45.0
It really
23:46.0
Doesn't help
23:47.0
If first of all
23:48.0
You have a leader
23:49.0
Who essentially
23:50.0
Is banned
23:51.0
So
23:52.0
I mean so much
23:53.0
For being a world power
23:54.0
Right
23:55.0
If your leader is more or less
23:56.0
Persona non grata
23:57.0
So that's
23:58.0
Something to keep in mind
23:59.0
The pariah status
24:00.0
So you cannot claim
24:01.0
To be a super power
24:02.0
If you're like
24:03.0
Treated like a giant
24:04.0
North Korea
24:05.0
Right
24:06.0
Kind of a giant rogue state
24:07.0
That's an important thing
24:08.0
To keep in mind
24:09.0
So it's
24:10.0
Strategic cost
24:11.0
If you have a leader
24:12.0
Who cannot go to many
24:13.0
Top countries
24:14.0
Top capitals
24:15.0
In the world
24:16.0
Because there's a
24:17.0
Warrant of arrest
24:18.0
Then that really makes
24:19.0
Projection of power
24:20.0
And diplomacy
24:21.0
Very difficult
24:22.0
Because let's not forget
24:23.0
You know
24:24.0
We're talking about
24:25.0
Leader who was meeting
24:26.0
Trump
24:27.0
Who was meeting
24:28.0
Biden for instance
24:29.0
In Switzerland
24:30.0
In Europe
24:31.0
Etc
24:32.0
Meeting Merkel
24:33.0
The former German Chancellor
24:34.0
Over and over again
24:35.0
All of that
24:36.0
Is not going to happen
24:37.0
Right now
24:38.0
It's very unlikely
24:39.0
To happen
24:40.0
Right
24:41.0
So what
24:42.0
Can he go to
24:43.0
Countries that are
24:44.0
Authoritarian
24:45.0
Dictator
24:46.0
Pariah states
24:47.0
Rogue states
24:48.0
Etc
24:49.0
So that pariah state
24:50.0
Is important
24:51.0
Because it
24:52.0
Chips away at
24:53.0
Prestige and power
24:54.0
Prestige and power
24:55.0
Prestige and power
24:56.0
Is very very important
24:57.0
Why
24:58.0
You see
24:59.0
Countries spend
25:00.0
Billions of dollars
25:01.0
On soft power
25:02.0
Or propaganda
25:03.0
Because prestige matters
25:04.0
Because it's not just
25:05.0
About money
25:06.0
You see
25:07.0
Why does China
25:08.0
Spend all of this money
25:09.0
On all these initiatives
25:10.0
And projects and all
25:11.0
Because it wants
25:12.0
To get respect
25:13.0
It wants authority
25:14.0
It wants to gain trust
25:15.0
It wants to get confidence
25:16.0
It wants to have prestige
25:17.0
Prestige is very important
25:19.0
Hosting world cup
25:20.0
Olympics
25:21.0
Very very expensive
25:22.0
But countries do that
25:23.0
Because of prestige
25:24.0
Why would Qatar
25:25.0
Spend all this money
25:26.0
Prestige
25:27.0
So prestige
25:28.0
Is a big thing
25:29.0
Because in a competitive world
25:31.0
If you want to have
25:32.0
More allies
25:33.0
You want more countries
25:34.0
To follow your example
25:35.0
It's called
25:36.0
Soft power
25:37.0
It's hard to have soft power
25:40.0
If your top leaders
25:41.0
Have pariah status
25:42.0
Right
25:43.0
So that's a big
25:44.0
Strategic cost
25:45.0
But let's not also
25:46.0
Forget the moral argument
25:47.0
Sometimes regardless
25:48.0
Of the result
25:49.0
That's a consequentialist argument
25:50.0
The intentionalist argument
25:52.0
Is that you have to do
25:53.0
The right thing
25:54.0
Regardless of result
25:55.0
But what I'm saying
25:56.0
Is that even the result
25:57.0
Is significant here
25:58.0
Because you're talking
25:59.0
About the potential pariah status
25:60.0
Now the other thing
26:01.0
To keep in mind
26:02.0
Is that the Russian economy
26:03.0
Is not doing well
26:04.0
Right
26:05.0
It's definitely
26:06.0
Not collapsing
26:07.0
I mean
26:08.0
The idea that the west
26:09.0
Could make Russia collapse
26:10.0
That's ridiculous
26:11.0
It's not going to happen
26:12.0
Russia is a great country
26:13.0
It's a powerful country
26:14.0
In every sense of the word
26:15.0
It has nuclear weapons
26:17.0
So you cannot
26:18.0
Underestimate Russia
26:19.0
But Russia's growth potential
26:20.0
Russia's access to top technology
26:22.0
Russia's per capita income growth
26:25.0
All of those things
26:26.0
Are not really in good place
26:28.0
And as Russia stagnates
26:29.0
And has a hard time
26:30.0
You know
26:31.0
Sending its leader
26:32.0
To other countries
26:33.0
Has a hard time
26:34.0
Conducting trade
26:35.0
With other countries
26:36.0
It can do
26:37.0
But look at it
26:38.0
It's doing trade with India
26:39.0
But they're selling
26:40.0
Their oil and gas super cheap
26:41.0
Or oil in this case
26:42.0
In the case of India
26:43.0
China both oil and gas
26:44.0
Right
26:45.0
But they have to sell it cheap
26:46.0
Because they're
26:47.0
So
26:48.0
That's what I'm saying
26:49.0
People
26:50.0
People are just saying
26:51.0
It's not going to collapse
26:52.0
Or it's not going to collapse
26:53.0
But
26:54.0
That's an unrealistic target
26:55.0
To begin with
26:56.0
What you're looking at here
26:57.0
Are the strategic costs
26:58.0
The pariah status
26:59.0
The diplomatic isolation
26:60.0
The more diplomatic isolation
27:01.0
It also affects your ability
27:03.0
To conduct trade
27:04.0
And strategic agreements
27:05.0
With other countries
27:06.0
For instance
27:07.0
The Philippines
27:08.0
Was supposed to buy
27:09.0
Weapon systems
27:10.0
Advanced weapon systems
27:11.0
From Russia
27:12.0
No more now
27:13.0
We don't want to do anything about it
27:14.0
Because we don't want to get
27:16.0
You know what I'm saying
27:17.0
The quagmire
27:18.0
Indonesia was supposed to get
27:19.0
SC-35 fighters
27:20.0
They withdraw
27:21.0
They don't want to do anything about
27:22.0
Russian weaponry
27:23.0
Etc
27:24.0
Who's coming in
27:25.0
India is coming in
27:26.0
So India is getting cheap oil
27:27.0
From Russia
27:28.0
Russians
27:29.0
Who are desperate to sell it
27:30.0
And by the way
27:31.0
To extract that oil
27:32.0
It's not free
27:33.0
So you have to spend a lot of money
27:34.0
To extract oil
27:35.0
And then you're selling it cheap
27:36.0
So your margins are going to be
27:37.0
Very very thin
27:38.0
No
27:39.0
And then with gas
27:41.0
You cannot just
27:42.0
Remove the pipelines from Europe
27:43.0
And put it all the way to Asia
27:45.0
It doesn't work that way
27:46.0
Alright
27:47.0
It's far more complicated
27:48.0
Than that
27:49.0
It takes years to build pipelines
27:50.0
The demand in China
27:52.0
Is not like
27:53.0
You know
27:54.0
It's not going to
27:55.0
Completely cover
27:56.0
What it needed for itself
27:57.0
Plus everything
27:58.0
That's going to be lost
27:59.0
In Europe
27:60.0
It doesn't work that way
28:01.0
Right
28:02.0
So there are many many costs here
28:03.0
Strategic costs
28:04.0
Economic costs
28:05.0
Transactional costs
28:06.0
Prestige costs
28:08.0
All of these things
28:09.0
And as I said
28:10.0
It also sets a precedence
28:11.0
Jurisdictionally
28:12.0
That
28:14.0
Even if you're a leader
28:15.0
Of a powerful country
28:16.0
Right
28:17.0
If the ICC believes
28:18.0
Or international court believes
28:19.0
That there's sufficient evidence
28:20.0
Then they can go after you
28:21.0
Right
28:22.0
But anyways
28:23.0
That's what I was saying
28:24.0
That's why
28:25.0
If you look at the
28:26.0
Philippine Arbitration Award
28:27.0
For instance
28:28.0
The Chinese
28:29.0
They're not using the word
28:30.0
The term nine dash line
28:31.0
Anymore as much
28:32.0
Because they know
28:33.0
What it is
28:34.0
It's a joke
28:35.0
After the Arbitration Award
28:36.0
That came out
28:37.0
And then
28:38.0
To those who don't read
28:39.0
They don't understand
28:40.0
International politics
28:41.0
It's the Philippines Arbitration Award
28:42.0
For the Philippines
28:43.0
And other powers
28:44.0
Who are conducting
28:45.0
You know
28:46.0
Freedom of navigation operations
28:47.0
Directly challenging
28:48.0
China's claims
28:49.0
In the area
28:50.0
That's why the Europeans
28:51.0
Are coming in
28:52.0
More comfortable with it
28:53.0
That's why the Japanese
28:54.0
And Indians are coming in
28:55.0
And they're feeling
28:56.0
More comfortable with it
28:57.0
Even the Koreans
28:58.0
Had something there
28:59.0
Although they didn't want
28:60.0
To pick a direct fight
29:01.0
With China
29:02.0
Because of the North Korea
29:03.0
Angle
29:04.0
So on and so forth
29:05.0
Right
29:06.0
And it will be very difficult
29:07.0
Later on for China
29:08.0
To invoke on clause
29:09.0
To support its own interest
29:10.0
In other parts of the world
29:11.0
Because it's gonna boom around
29:12.0
So
29:13.0
That's what I'm saying
29:14.0
International politics
29:15.0
Is not about
29:16.0
Total collapse
29:17.0
Or total victory
29:18.0
It's all about
29:19.0
This gray areas
29:20.0
Of strategic cost
29:21.0
And strategic gains
29:22.0
So clearly
29:23.0
Russia is not gonna collapse
29:24.0
Clearly Putin
29:25.0
Is not gonna be arrested
29:26.0
And soon
29:27.0
I don't think ever
29:28.0
It's very unlikely
29:29.0
But
29:30.0
But
29:31.0
Look at all of this cost
29:32.0
That is imposed
29:33.0
Look at all of this isolation
29:34.0
You see
29:35.0
There was a lot of discussion
29:36.0
About China
29:37.0
Brokering that
29:38.0
Saudi-Iranian deal
29:39.0
And how US was absent
29:40.0
In the picture
29:41.0
I would say
29:42.0
Well obviously
29:43.0
One is the US
29:44.0
So
29:45.0
They won't really
29:46.0
Be the mediator
29:47.0
But
29:48.0
A country like Russia
29:49.0
Could have been the mediator
29:50.0
Instead of China
29:51.0
Because Russia
29:52.0
Has been a big player
29:53.0
In the Middle East
29:54.0
For quite some time
29:55.0
Since Zaris era
29:56.0
But they're not
29:57.0
Because they're more
29:58.0
And more isolated
29:59.0
They're more and more isolated
29:60.0
And they're
30:01.0
They're operating
30:02.0
From a position of weakness
30:03.0
That's a very
30:04.0
Very important thing
30:05.0
So yeah
30:06.0
Sure
30:07.0
Russia and China
30:08.0
Are gonna buy
30:09.0
They're gonna buy
30:10.0
As cheap as possible
30:11.0
Very cheap
30:12.0
So a lot of
30:13.0
Foregone revenues there
30:14.0
A lot of countries
30:15.0
Don't wanna do any
30:16.0
Arms deals with Russia anymore
30:17.0
Including Indonesia
30:18.0
Including the Philippines
30:19.0
Again
30:20.0
You can see
30:21.0
Putin will not be able
30:22.0
To go to a lot of countries
30:23.0
To
30:24.0
You know
30:25.0
To project power
30:26.0
To build personal relationship
30:27.0
Because of this situation
30:28.0
Many other countries
30:29.0
They don't wanna do
30:30.0
Anything about it
30:31.0
And then of course
30:32.0
Western countries
30:33.0
The major capitalists
30:34.0
In this war
30:35.0
London
30:36.0
Paris
30:37.0
Washington
30:38.0
Again
30:39.0
Those will be off-limits
30:40.0
So this is
30:41.0
These are strategic costs
30:42.0
Right
30:43.0
And these are important
30:44.0
These are important things
30:45.0
To keep in mind
30:46.0
Because again
30:47.0
At the end of the day
30:48.0
There is no illusion
30:49.0
Whatsoever
30:50.0
About
30:51.0
Whatever warrant arrives
30:52.0
Will be implemented
30:53.0
Anytime soon
30:54.0
Right
30:55.0
But this is about
30:56.0
Making sure
30:57.0
First of all
30:58.0
You send
30:59.0
A moral signal
30:60.0
You set
31:01.0
The jurisdictional precedence
31:02.0
And you increase
31:03.0
The strategic costs
31:04.0
So
31:05.0
This looks like
31:06.0
The intention
31:07.0
The consequences
31:08.0
Of what we're seeing right now
31:09.0
And as I said
31:10.0
This also has repercussions
31:11.0
For the Philippines
31:12.0
Because
31:13.0
All those arguments on
31:14.0
Hindi na tayo kasama
31:15.0
Sa Rome Statues
31:16.0
Therefore this and that
31:17.0
All of those arguments
31:18.0
Right now
31:19.0
Are
31:20.0
You could argue
31:21.0
Are far more questionable
31:22.0
And flimsy
31:23.0
And some would even say
31:24.0
They should be thrown
31:25.0
Out of the window
31:26.0
Alright
31:27.0
I'll keep it there
31:28.0
Mga Kameta
31:29.0
Let's see what will the
31:30.0
Response of the DOJ be
31:31.0
Of the
31:32.0
Marcos Administration
31:33.0
I know of course
31:34.0
What are the arguments
31:35.0
Gonna be
31:37.0
But for me
31:38.0
This is big
31:39.0
And the relevance
31:40.0
Of this
31:41.0
Is gonna come out
31:42.0
More and more
31:43.0
In the coming
31:44.0
Weeks and coming months
31:45.0
As we see
31:46.0
Reactions
31:47.0
Counter reactions
31:48.0
And all the chain
31:49.0
Of events
31:50.0
And chain of
31:51.0
Or this dialectics
31:52.0
Of back and forth
31:53.0
Between Russia
31:54.0
The West
31:55.0
And the rest of the world
31:56.0
Let's see where
31:57.0
This is going
31:58.0
Now
31:59.0
President Xi Jinping
31:60.0
Is also gonna be in Russia
32:01.0
I think in the coming days
32:02.0
Let's also see
32:03.0
How that's gonna go
32:04.0
So clearly
32:06.0
Now with Putin
32:07.0
Not being able to visit
32:08.0
Many top capitals
32:09.0
He's gonna meet
32:10.0
Xi Jinping
32:11.0
As a junior partner
32:12.0
So again of course
32:13.0
China will visit them
32:14.0
Russia
32:15.0
India will visit them
32:16.0
Sure
32:17.0
But now we know
32:18.0
Who's the junior partner
32:19.0
Who's the senior partner
32:20.0
For a long time
32:21.0
Russia was the senior partner
32:22.0
When it dealt with
32:23.0
Its allied country
32:24.0
Now it's
32:25.0
Operating from
32:26.0
Position of weakness
32:27.0
I mean just look at
32:28.0
How Central Asian leaders
32:29.0
Were treating Putin
32:30.0
When he visited them
32:31.0
For Eurasia
32:32.0
Or Shanghai
32:33.0
Cooperation Organization
32:35.0
Again
32:36.0
This is about prestige
32:37.0
This is about power
32:38.0
This is about
32:39.0
Being able to conduct
32:40.0
Diplomacy
32:41.0
This is about
32:42.0
Respect and authority
32:43.0
And all of that
32:44.0
Those are things that
32:45.0
Very much matter
32:46.0
International
32:47.0
In an international arena
32:48.0
Especially if you're
32:49.0
A superpower
32:50.0
Or claim to be
32:51.0
Still a superpower
32:52.0
Alright
32:53.0
So mga kamayta
32:54.0
Thank you very much for that
32:55.0
Let me
32:56.0
Papasalamat tayo
32:57.0
Sa lahat ng mga
32:58.0
Nanonood sa atin
32:59.0
Again
32:60.0
We're trying to be
33:01.0
As objective as possible
33:02.0
So we showed
33:03.0
A lot of articles
33:04.0
Everything relevant
33:05.0
To our discussion here
33:06.0
So maraming salamat
33:07.0
Mga kamayta
33:08.0
We're trying to be
33:09.0
As objective as possible
33:10.0
Hindi ko ma
33:11.0
Bagal kasi
33:12.0
Internet ko dito
33:13.0
Alright
33:14.0
Thank you very much guys
33:15.0
I'll get back to you
33:16.0
One second na
33:17.0
Kailangan ko lang
33:18.0
Ilabas to
33:19.0
Alright
33:20.0
Mag thank you na lang ako dyan
33:21.0
Alright
33:22.0
Sa lahat ng comment
33:23.0
Parang hindi lumalabas dito
33:24.0
Eh nangirapan ako
33:25.0
Ilabas dito
33:26.0
Ayan
33:27.0
Thank you very much
33:28.0
As always
33:29.0
Kay Mia Fresnido
33:30.0
For her comment
33:31.0
Ayan
33:32.0
Great weekend din po sa inyo
33:33.0
Kay Edwin Romeo Azucenas
33:36.0
Kala ko hindi member ng ICC
33:38.0
Kaya nga eh
33:39.0
Yan ang sinasabi ko
33:40.0
Neither Ukraine
33:41.0
Or nor Russia are
33:42.0
Right
33:43.0
Russia is no more
33:44.0
And Ukraine has not been
33:45.0
So
33:46.0
Still
33:47.0
So that's where
33:48.0
Jurisdictional issues
33:49.0
Very important
33:50.0
Thank you also kay Jocelyn
33:51.0
As always for joining us
33:52.0
Kay Joey Ros
33:53.0
Also for joining us
33:54.0
Kay Cecilia Picard
33:55.0
Thank you very much
33:56.0
Sa inyong lahat
33:57.0
Kay Reese Annie
33:58.0
Kay Jeffrey Jackson Young
33:59.0
Ayan
33:60.0
Ang dami ng comment dito
34:01.0
Ayan ah
34:02.0
Kay Michael Uy
34:03.0
Thank you very much
34:04.0
Kay Jepay Javier
34:06.0
Kay Patrick Carillo
34:07.0
Yan I can see your comments
34:08.0
Thank you very much
34:09.0
Medyo dito
34:10.0
Naglalag lang dito
34:11.0
Sa part natin
34:12.0
But again ah
34:13.0
Please please
34:14.0
Check it out
34:15.0
Now
34:16.0
Just to end on this note
34:17.0
What I want to say is
34:18.0
Of course this could also work
34:19.0
The other way
34:20.0
In fact it could work in favor of
34:21.0
The former administration
34:22.0
Of the Philippines
34:23.0
Because
34:24.0
The Putin one is gonna
34:25.0
Because it's a
34:26.0
Quote unquote big fish
34:27.0
Ah
34:28.0
ICC could also get
34:29.0
Bugged down there
34:30.0
So in a way
34:31.0
This could actually help
34:32.0
The case of the Philippines
34:33.0
Because madali distract ng ICC
34:34.0
Or
34:35.0
It could go other way
34:36.0
They're saying
34:37.0
If they can go after Putin
34:38.0
Why not go after ano?
34:39.0
Diba?
34:40.0
After some
34:41.0
You know mayor or something
34:42.0
Okay
34:43.0
Let's keep it there
34:44.0
Thank you very much guys
34:45.0
And talk to you soon