Paano dapat ang diskarte ng Marcos administration sa gitna ng girian sa pagitan ng US at China? Guest natin si Renato De Castro, isang security analyst at professor ng international studies.

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Good evening guys! Welcome to tonight's episode of Facts Verse. Ako po si Christian Esqueda.

And again, thank you very much po sa patuloy niyo na pagtangkilik dito po sa ating programa, dito po sa ating Facts Verse podcast.

Nga pala, gusto ko humingi ng pauminin doon po sa mga nakikinig sa ating podcast kasi iba, mga nakakausap ko mismo, may mga nakakasalubong ako sa kalye.

Sinasabi, sir medyo mabagal yata kayo mag-upload sa podcast. Pasensya na po, tao lang. Bibirisan natin.

Kanina nag-upload po tayo ng two new episodes sa podcast kasi nga we understand yung listening and the news consuming habits ng mga Pilipino.

Talaga nagbago. May iba mas comfortable na nakikinig habang may ginagawa.

So, yung isang nakakausap ko kahapon kasi ano siya, first year political science student sa University of Santo Tomas.

Nasa campus ako kahapon dahil nagklasa rin ako and then nakapagmeet siya ng hingi ng sticker.

So binigyan ko siya and then nasabi niya, nakikinig daw siya sa podcast habang nagre-review, etc. etc.

Nagiging useful daw dahil nga roon sa course nila political science.

Nagkakaroon ng mga real life examples yung mga kinag-uusapan nilang concepts and theories sa political science.

Sabi ko, pasensya na, I'm actually referring to Valerie. Valerie, nice to meet you yesterday.

And eto, bibirisan natin yung pag-upload sa podcast kasi alam natin na may iba talaga mas gusto nakikinig kaysa doon sa nanonood.

Anyway, yung episode natin ngayong gabi, basically this is a follow-through doon sa ating episode last Monday kung saan nagkaroon tayo ng ano.

We marked the 1st anniversary of Oxfords. At ang pinag-uusapan natin doon, of course kung sakaling sumiklab yung isang armed conflict sa Taiwan sa pagitan ng China, Taiwan and of course the United States, ano ba ang implications ito sa Pilipinas?

Ngayon, mas lalaliman pa po natin yung pag-uusap dito. Pag-uusapan po natin yung polisya na nakikita natin o perhaps hindi natin masyado nakikita dito sa ating pamahalaan.

Pagdating po doon sa pakikitungo doon sa United States at saka po sa China kasi maraming mga moving parts that we have to consider.

So hindi ko na po patatagalin. I'd like to introduce our guest. Nagbabalik po siya. Madalas po natin siya maka-uusap. We'd like to welcome again to our podcast, to Facts Verse, si Prof. Renato De Castro.

Siya po isang professor ng international studies sa De La Salle University. Magandang gabi po sir. And thank you for joining us again dito sa Facts Verse.

Magandang gabi naman Christian. Again, thank you very much for giving me the opportunity to express my views regarding this very important issue. It's a great honor and pleasure on my part.

Salamat sir. The honor is ours po actually. O sige pag-uusapan natin ito kasi dapat tinitingnan natin yung developments natin na vacuum kundi yung connections and implications or interconnectedness.

So sa Taiwan, nandun yung military exercises na kasalukuyang ginagawa ni China. Ngayon meron tayong Balikatan, the largest, sabi nila. Tapos ano po bang connection nito tapos yung expanded EDCA, military bases access?

Ano po bang sinasabi sa atin itong mga nangyayaring ito? Actually wala naman talagang relasyon yung dalawang nangyayaring military exercises. Yung sa China natapos kapon 3 days. Yung Balikatan of course nag-start pa lang ngayon.

The Balikatan has been planned as early as last year. September na yan they already agreed for a huge Balikatan. I think even nag-planning nito started even earlier after we had a relatively large Balikatan exercise in 2022.

I was there in Capaginaldo. Pinapag-usapan na, nadidinig ko na talagang gusto palaking pareho ng AFP at United States Armed Forces. So planano na ito matagal. Yung nangyari noong last three days sa Taiwan was a reaction of China after you have the meeting of President Tsai and House Speaker Kevin McCartney.

So this is of course a reaction of China. So actually it has no relation whatsoever. But of course if you have to look at it from a larger angle, if you're not familiar with the nitty-gritty ng mga exercises ito, sa tingin mo talagang quid pro quo.

The Chinese conducted a three-day military exercise. Then of course the United States reacted. So this is how you would look at it if you're not familiar with the developments. The fact that one has already been planned since last year. The other was of course China's reaction after of course the United States and of course President Tsai met Speaker of the House Kevin McCartney.

Hello sir. Medyo nag-ahang yata si Prof. De Castro. Actually I understand na yung pag-organize ng mga military exercise, hindi yan biglaan. Hindi mo siya pwede i-plan for the following week.

So matagal pinagpaplanuhan. Pero yung gusto ko sana itanong dito, ano ba yung message na pinapadala nito? Let's say expanded Balikatan for instance. Tapos yung additional access to Philippine military bases or temporal access for the Americans.

Ito ba talaga... Yun dun muna tayo sa EDCA bases. Pwede ba sabihin talaga na ang target nito, yung possible conflict sa Taiwan?

Because after the strong reaction of China, sa visit ni Speaker Nancy Pelosi, talagang pinakita ni China yung reaction niya. So this basically caught the attention of both Manila and Washington about the possibility that China might push the issue.

And of course, last year you also have the 20th Party Congress, where of course President Xi Jinping got his third term and possibly a term up to lifetime.

And of course, pinag-uusapan ito, the Communist Party gave President Xi Jinping the mandate because he had a mission. Mission niya of course is to finally end the long civil war between the communists and the gumindang that began actually in 1927,

when you have the breakdown of the United Front. Hanggang ngayon, sa tingin ng Communist Party of China and of course even President Xi Jinping, hindi pa tapos yung civil war.

Kasi umatras lang yung gumindang sa Taiwan. So ayan yung mission niya. And of course, mayroon din siyang personal ambition. He had this love-hate relationship with Mao Zedong.

Yung pamilya niya, pinag-usahan ni Mao Zedong during the Great Cultural Revolution. Although ang nangyari dito, bumalik siya sa party, na-rehabilitate siya.

Pero mayroon pa rin siyang score to settle with Mao. Gusto niyang ma-surpass si Mao. Kasi Mao, although Mao is of course the founder, Mao Zedong is the founder of the People's Republic of China.

But it failed in one major aspect, the failure to end the Chinese civil war. So ito na yung commitment ni President Xi Jinping. So wala nang kasasabi.

Of course, oh my goodness, ito na. At nakalimutan ko. I'm sorry, nakalimutan ko pa ito. Russian invasion of Ukraine. So this possibly has given China the idea.

Kung ito yung pinaka-objective niyan. Can you hear me sir? Nadidinig ko kaya. So kung target talaga, ang objective ni President Xi is to end the civil war.

So does it mean we're seeing the possibility or the likelihood that there would be unification by whatever means?

Yes, of course. Preferably, of course, in the announcement of China, as much as possible they want to settle this peacefully. But of course, they have to consider a lot of factors.

Number one, mayroon nang nandidevelop na consensus sa Taiwan that they're not anymore Chinese. Although it's not yet talagang mayroon pa division, mayroon pa debate within the Taiwanese society,

malakas na of course yung force to basically say just to end the civil war, let's just declare ourselves independent. We're not Chinese. We're Taiwanese.

Let's from the position of Taiwan anyway, we're already a de facto independence. Gawin na natin diyuri. Of course, napipilihan ng China.

Ang pangalawang aspect of course yung U.S.-China strategic competition. So sa pananaw ng China, ini-encourage din ng America yung growing move or movement for eventual diyuri independence.

Of course, hindi yang sasabihin, hindi yang aminan ng both Taiwan and of course the United States. Pero sa pananaw ng China, nandun na yung forces that will really push the Taiwanese to really cross the Rubicon.

That is of course, declare diyuri independence.

Okay. Dito of course, hindi naman papayag ang United States na i-occupy ng China ang Taiwan because that would be a disaster also for American foreign policy.

Pero may announcement. Pag-usapan natin yung interest natin bilang mga Pilipino. Nalinaw naman ni President Marcos na hindi gagamitin ang EDCA basis for any offensive.

Di ba? Sinabi po niya yan. Pero ano po pabasa nyo rito? Kasi anything can be used as a justification for something. Kung sakali sumiklab ng isang armed conflict. Ano po pabasa nyo rito sa ganitong assurance?

O yan. Yan yung mahihirap. Of course, ito yung objective mo. Ito yung objective possibly natin. Defensive, we draw the line. Pero once you have the first shot being fired, any plans goes to waste.

Sabi nga ni Clausewitz, a Prussian military philosopher, war is in the realm of uncertainty. Once somebody pushes the envelope, all hell breaks loose. Katulad na lang yung plano ni Putin when he invaded Ukraine. Ang plano niya, three days tapos na ito.

Of course until now nagkakalumpay ng labanan. So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. Defensive to. But you simply don't know what will happen.

At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So ito yung sinabi, ito yung plano mo. At may announcement come from the President of the Philippines na hindi naman gagamitin for any offensive. So does that make sense?

So naano na ni President Marcos, mukhang ginagago ako nito. Pangalawa, hindi siya pinagbigyan. Yung simple request niya na payagan yung mga fisherfolks natin from Zambales to fish at Scarborough Shoal, hindi siya pinagbigyan.

Yung mga projects na eventually inuwi niya, mga recycled projects yung from the Duterte administration. So he practically brought home nothing.

So I think he was very much disappointed by the fact that China, probably again realizing na hindi talaga tayo mamawin away from the United States,

he was simply openly saying we're willing to cooperate. But when you come to the nitty-gritty, he got practically nothing. Wala. Talagang ano.

Tulad ng nangyari kay President Duterte, P24 billion pinangako sa kanya ni President Xi Jinping, ilan lang talagang pumasok.

So may dispute ka?

Pero the difference, sorry. The difference, Duterte administration, ang daming binigay. So far wala pa kayo nakikita sa Marcos administration na may binibigay sa China.

Sa Duterte administration, ang daming pinangako, konti ang binigay.

I mean ang daming pinangako ng China sa Duterte administration. In turn, ang daming binigay ng Duterte administration. Hindi ginamit yung arbitral victory until much later.

Dito ba? May nakikita ba kayo may binibigay na ang Marcos administration? So that's a good thing I suppose.

May nakano yata yung pibilhin yung dovia natin?

Okay. Yung mga lohaking fruits. No pun intended.

Wala project. In fact, yung major infrastructure projects na pinagmamalaking ngayon ng Marcos administration, yung 148 commuter train mulakart pagpuntang Calamba, Japanese funded.

Of course yung subway, Japanese funded. Yung bridge that will connect Kadite with Bataan and crossing Corridor, Asian Development Bank. We haven't heard any infrastructure project that will be funded by China.

Tuso pala ito. Tuso pala itong Sen. Xi Jinping. Anyway, so far ba? Kasi nung nakaraang administration madalas nating pag-usapan. Hindi lang tayo, I mean ang mga tao, foreign policy ng Duterte administration at maraming naging kritisismo nga ron.

So dito ba, dito sa current China policy ng Marcos administration, would you say na ituwid na or nailagay na sa tamang landas on how we should deal with China?

Hindi naman yan. Yung sinundan niya. Let's continue yung ano natin. Pero I think he's wise enough to know na wala rin tayong mapapala. So ang approach niya talaga, I think, kaya tignan mo a week after he visited Beijing, he went to Japan.

Pagkagaling yan sa Japan, ang dami niyang daladala. Japan is also of course involved in this game. The Japanese are basically telling us, you don't need to be economically dependent on China. You need to diversify because we're here.

Japan still has the third largest economy in the world. And of course when Japan builds your infrastructure, it's with quality.

So it's a passage, it's a procession. Maganda naman, nadaanan ko na. Pero hanggang kailan matibay ba yan, expression?

I think yes. He learned a lot. He learned a lot from the fact that China really doesn't deliver what it promised.

He learned that from his father. Nung start ng term niya, binoblow up sa media na yung tatay niya, of course the First Lady Imelda Marcos went to China and they were welcomed by Mao.

Pero actually, ito hindi nababanggit nun. Ano yung reason na pagmunta ni President Marcos sa China? Ang talagang reason niya nun is to ask China to stop the assistance giving to the Communist Party of the Philippines and New People's Army.

Kasi China supported the Communist Party of the Philippines and New People's Army nung mga late 60s. Yung arms, may mga dumating na arms na lumanding pa sa Isabela, MB Garagatan.

Yung mga natatandaan ko pa nung lumalaki ko, everyone was pointing their fingers at the late President Marcos senior. At gawa-gawa lang yan para i-declare martial law.

In the 1980s, may lumantad ng dating mga NPA sinasabi, hindi talagang padalaya ng China. So ang hope ni President Marcos, itigil na ng China.

Hindi tinigil ng China. Ang napagpatigil sa China was of course, the late Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew na kinonfront niya si Deng Xiaoping.

Mga 1978-79 na ito. Kasi lumapit si Deng Xiaoping kay Lee Kuan Yew. Sabi ni Deng Xiaoping, bakit pa disgustful sakin yung mga Southeast Asians?

Sabi sa kanya ni Lee Kuan Yew, sinusupotahan niyo pa yung mga local communist movements niya like in the Philippines. Doon lang tumigil.

Kaya I suspect alam yan ni President Bongbong Marcos Jr. paano niloko ang tatay niya noong 1970s.

So mas may sophistication tayo nakikita dito in terms of dealing with China? Hindi yung simplistic na, hindi yung simplistic naman in reality pero pinapalabas sa sophisticated. I'm referring to the past.

If you go back again sa China, nag-open tayo ng diplomatic relations 1975-76 pero may suspicion pa rin noon. Hanggang mga 1980s yan.

Okay. Sige sir maraming maraming salamat po for joining us tonight. Ang ganda ng sinabi niya. Bilib na bilib ang ating mga guests. Maraming maraming salamat.

Again Christian, I'm at your beckon call. Lalo na of course you're one of the closest friends of my one and only. It's a USC connection. Di ko maanohan ng USC connection.

Sir maraming salamat. Magandang gabi po sa inyo.

Again, good luck to you and of course best wishes for your profession and of course your family. Nakikita yung very healthy young boy mo.

Salamat po sir. Happy Easter nga pala. Salamat po. Take care.

Mas may nakikita tayong liwanag at katinuan sa foreign policy ng kasalukay administration kumpara sa nakaraan. So these things have to be acknowledged sa totoo lang.

Huwag tayo nega pagdating dito kasi pag mali ang direction ng ating foreign policy, affected po tayo binang mga ordinaryong Pilipino. At kung tama naman po, makakabuti yan sa ating interests.

So sa tingin ko, personally, maayos ang direction kumpara doon sa nakaraang administration, itong current Marcos administration badating po sa pakikita ko sa China. So sana mas maganda yung pag-handle natin dito sa issue ng China.

Magkakaroon tayo ng special episode tomorrow, live ulit Thursday kasi MWF lang tayo talaga. Pero meron akong gustong pag-usapan bukas kaso yung guest natin bukas lang siya available.

So hindi rin siya pwede ngayong gabi. Kasi nabasa niyo ba latest Pulse Asia survey tungkol sa trustworthiness ng 4 top officials dito sa Pilipinas? President Marcos, Vice President Sara, Senate President, House Speaker kasama rin yata ang Chief Justice.

So na rin ang taas ng rating nila especially the top 2 elected officials ng ating bansa. Ang gusto kong pag-usapan bukas kasi kahit sino pa yan, kahit sino pa yung nakaupo.

So isang Presidente ba? Isang Senador? Isang Kongresista? Isang Vice Presidente? Pag ako ba tinanong ng survey, sasabihin sa akin gano'n ka nagtitiwala sa official na ito? Pwede kong taasan pero ano ang basis noon? Kasi hindi naman ako familiar siguro masyado sa kilos niya.

So a big part of this perception is affected or influenced by propaganda. Kasi perception to eh. So pwedeng alaki ng tiwala mo sa isang official pero pag tinignan mo, bugok pala. I'm speaking in general, wala akong tinutukoy in particular.

So if you have any questions for instance, ako pang nagtatanong lang kasi whether we like it or not, perception lahat ito. Pero on the other hand, malaking tulong din ang trustworthiness. Kasi pag malaki ang tiwala ng taong bayan sa isang public official, mas madali niyang magagawa ang mga programa. Mas madali niyang isusulong ang mga pulisiya and we can only hope na matino itong mga pulisiya at programa na ito.

So magagawa din ang trustworthiness. Kasi kung wala ka ng tiwala sa isang public official, ang hirap-hirap naman kung official ka ng gobyerno para kumilos. Kunwari presidente, dahil mong gusto gawin pero bagsak na bagsak ang trust rating mo, ang hirap kumilos. Nakita natin yan, panahon ni President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, talagang mababa ng trustworthiness, trust ratings.

Ngayon nang nakaraan President Duterte mataas din ang trust rating, President Marcos at Vice President Sara Duterte. So yan ang upside noon. Pag maganda naman ang malaking tiwala sa inyong taong bayan, mas makakilos ka, mas makakapagpatupad ka ng magandang programa, pulisiya at proyekto para sa mga tao.

So baka kilala nyo si Mr. Allan Germán, isa siyang campaign strategist. So gusto natin pag-usapan ang aspect ng propaganda and perception, kung paano mo pwede manufacture ang perception of trust sa isang politiko.

Base doon sa lumalabas ng mga surveys. Again, I'm not discrediting kasi marami dito talaga nagagalit sa Pulse Asia. Masyadong kine-question ang credibility ng Pulse Asia. Alam po natin ang hugot noon kasi marami sa inyo nagagalit sa Pulse Asia noong 2022 campaign dahil hindi ang mga kandidato niya ang sinabi niya mataas.

So gusto doon sa mga lumabas ng surveys ng Pulse Asia at iba pang mga major survey firms. So wala pong perfect ng survey. Pero sa akin kasi baka naman OA pag masyadong din discredit yung mga reputable ng mga survey firms. I'm not talking about the fly-by-night survey firms na manipulated.

And kita-kita po tayo 7.30 ng gabi tapos Friday kita-kita ulit tayo 7.30. So magkakaroon tayo ng apat na episodes for this week. Tapos lastly, salamat na ang dami nagpadala sa inyo ng mensahe.

So papadala natin by lalamove or grab o kung ano man yung mas mabilis. Hindi na namin kayo mahasabihin isa-isa na may paparating sa iyo. Abang-abang na lang, nandito na yung number nyo. At pakisagot na lang po yung shipping fee, dami kasi.

Bala ko hindi magbigyan natin isang sticker lang kasi biti naman. Sayang naman yung delivery kung isang sticker lang. So dadagdagan natin, nagpa-imprinta pa po tayo ng additional. Again, pasasalamat po lahat ito dahil sa paturin ng pag-suporta niya. Kasi ang laking bagay po ng supporta ninyo.

So, magkakaroon natin sa Instagram account po natin, yung Christian V. Esguerra. Ang dami magaganda na mga message, talagang nakakataba ng puso. Pero ito, shoutout muna. Shoutout kay Carlo, education instructor daw siya sa Koleo, Disan Juan de Letran. Sabi niya, been following you since you started going live last year through replay or catch up lang madalas. Walang mintis. Wow, maraming salamat sa iyo.

Thank you so much lalo sa pagtugon natin sa education crisis. Isa po yun sa mga tinututukan nating issue kasi bilang isang educator din. So malapit po sa puso natin yung issue ng education reform. Sabi niya, we thank you for your service. Hoping to work with you soon sa Philippine Association for Media Information Literacy. I'm part of PAMIL as one of its board members. Meron palang ganoon. Sorry hindi ako familiar.

Maraming salamat sa pagsuporta mo and thank you for the work that you've been doing also in terms of promoting media literacy. Sino pa ba? Sabi ni Jonathan, bawal manood ng NBA yung mga DDS, China Enabler. Bakit naman? Ako sinusunod kay NBA eh. Okay, sige. Maraming salamat po sa inyo and kita-kita po tayo bukas. Live po yung episode natin bukas. Maganda po yun promise.

Again, sa mga nakikinig sa ating podcast, sa replay, maraming salamat po sa inyo. Kung nagdadrive kayo sa kotse habang pinapakinggan nyo ito, o nagluluto, naglilinis, o nag-aaral, o kung ano man yung ginagawa niya, gumagawa ng love letter, thank you. At sana may napupulit po kayong makabulhan dito po sa ating programa. Again, maraming salamat po. This is Christian Ezequiela po.

Thank you for watching!