Malaking mayorya ng mga Pilipino ang nagtitiwala at aprubado sa performance nina Pangulong Marcos at VP Sara Duterte, base sa Pulse Asia survey. Paano ginagamit ang mga ganitong survey ng mga political strategist? Gaano ito ka-reliable? Guest natin si Alan German, isang veteran campaign strategist.

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🎧 Intro Music 🎧

Yan o, parang the late show, late night show.

... Napansin nyo ba? Yan kasi ang idea ng gumawa nyo. Medyo jazzy ng content, parang late night show or late show.

... Kung saan lumabas na napakalaking majority ng Pilipino ang nagtitiwala at approve sa performance ni President Bombong Marcos at Vice President Sara Duterte. Hihimayin natin yan from the perspective of political strategy and campaign strategy. Basically PR.

Magandang gabi. Welcome to our program. Si Mr. Allan Herman, veteran political strategist.

Magandang gabi Christian at sa lahat ng ating mga suki sa Fox First. It's great to be back here and always a pleasure and a privilege to be speaking with an insightful fellow like Christian na talagang nahihimay ang issue ng maayos and I hope I can do this episode some justice.

... Bait no? Nag-echo ako in my head pero diyan wala na mga echo. Tamo ba? Okay so mga audience natin okay naman siguro. Ako na mag-TTST sa headset kung nag-echo ako.

... Well unahin natin sa survey taking firm. Yan ang pinaka-importante. Ang una mong titignan dyan, kanino ba nanggagaling ang numero at resulta? Kasi alam mo naman Christian at napag-usapan natin ito sa mga dating at dumaan na episodes na during election season marami dyan ang fly-by-night tinatawag nating sari-sari store survey firms that come out...

... and espouse these results and numbers and ratings na walang ibang basehan kundi kung sino nagbabayad sa kanila at kung sino ang kandidatong gusto nilang mayangat. But not so with Pulse. We have seen and I know this might be a controversial statement.

... May nilalabasan ng internet comments dito sa sasabihin ko. But time and again Pulse has proven its critics and pundits wrong. Kung ano ang nilalabas nila yan talaga ang nagre-reflect sa actual na resulta. So given that it's Pulse, from the lens of a political strategist, binibigyan namin ng weight and credence yan.

So the hierarchy namin para sa isang kandidato yung tinatawag na ATSP. Awareness is the first, trust is the next, ang susunod dyan satisfaction or approval and finally ang pinaka holy grail namin is the P, preference. So journey yan, awareness, trust, satisfaction or approval and then preference.

So it's a makalaking bagay para sa amin, sa disiplina namin itong mga resultang ganito. Surely nag-high five na at nag-cheers na ang mga humahawak ng image at kampanya at mga pro President Bongbong Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte followers and supporters.

Q&A

Ang daming hindi makapaniwala, inopaka ng Pulse, binibigyan ng mga nilaro ang pangalan nila. But in the end, whatever was reflected in the pre-election surveys, sinalamin. Ganon-ganon yan lumabas. So we have to believe it because it has been proven to be true.

Ang taas din ni Pete Gutin and VP Jejomar Binay. Tapos 2017, ang taas din ni President Duterte. Tapos si Vice President Leni, nasa 50s, 51 yata or 52. So mga curious, pwede nyo balikan. Nasa internet naman lahat yan.

Yes, yes. Once in the internet, forever in the internet.

Okay. Ito ang gusto kong himahin kasi. As a strategist sabi niya credible naman itong mga survey na ganito tulad sa Pulse Asia. Pero paano ba talaga mahasabi na reflective siya doon sa trust level ng mga tao?

That's a great question. For the people who really care about the nuances of the job, siyempre yan ang unang-unang magiging punto.

Naiintindihan ba ng respondents what they're being asked? Nagtitiwala ka ba sa person X? Kailangan alamin mo ano bang duties and responsibilities ni person X. At kailangan talagang tignan mo yung track record kung nahihimay mo talaga ano ba yung pinaggagawa ng itong tao.

Unfortunately yan, sa mga mananood dati in the Philippines and there's empirical data that will back this up, it's not always the case. Trust is a blanket emotional term for the Filipinos. Nagtitiwala ka ba is the way they phrase it in the survey.

Iwala ka ba? Nananalig ka ba? Pananalig? Iwala. It's really this very emotional, it's almost a mental state for the Filipino electorate pag sumasagot ng survey na ito.

Nilinis ko kasi kanina itong audio mixer. Pagkatanga tayo, yan sa isa-isa na ito kahaan natin ngayon. Live program.

Q&A

Sa disiplina namin meron tayong tinatawag na pillars or foundations of political trust. And this is only for political trust. Lilinawin ko hindi ito customer trust or brand trust. This is purely from a political lens kasi baka may mga marketing communicators na magalit.

Kala mo Ian, napaka nuanced at magugulat ka kung ano ang pillars ng political trust sa Pilipinas. Ano sila? Apat sila. Unang-una yung convenience and inheritance. So ano yan? Bakit sila nagtitiwala sa isang politiko?

Una because it's convenient kasi nanalo na. Panalo na yan, na-vote na yan, magtiwala nalang tayo. Nanalo na sila sa election, nakapwesto na. O sige, sumunod nalang tayo kung gusto nilang gawin, huwag nalang tayo umangal. It's that, there's that convenience.

So unang inheritance, inherited trust, magtiwala tayo dyan kasi anak yan ni Tatay Digong or Marcos yan, matagal na sa politika. Nandyan si ama niya, si Gov Imey, matagal na nagsilbi. Parang may name recall na. So it's that, the convenience.

Alam mo, yan ang paradox of Philippine voters. Kasi makikita mo lalo sa social media, sinasabi nila lahat ang Pilipino hinahanap ni Saya, hindi leader. But if you really look at the data and analyze the data, actually magugulat ka Ian, the expectation of the Filipino voter for national leaders is very small.

Sa tingin nila hindi mo babago buhay nila kahit sino nakaupo. Kasi at the end of the day, it's still a function of themselves kahit sino naman nakaupo dyan. Ang talagang magpapaangat ng buhay ko ay walang iba kundi ako.

So syempre kung napakaliit ng expectation mo, hindi ka pwedeng ma-disappoint, hindi pwedeng mabasag yung trust kasi wala kang expectation. Ang bahaba wala kang expectation. Ang lungkot.

So it's feeding on that. Lower your expectations. The President isn't supposed to be able to make prices go down or the President isn't supposed to be able to stop inflation. Pati ba naman yan, sinusisi ninyo sa Pangulo. So ang galing eh. That was actually a brilliant strategy. Go ahead Ian.

Q1. Can you identify the real connection between the President or national leaders and things that are happening to us as citizens?

Ang mayor ang makapag-aayos ng poso, makapag-aayos ng daan, makapagbibigay ng kuryente, pabahay sa kanila. Si mayor yan, si congressman yan, si gov yan. Pero yung mga Presidente, Pangulo, Vice Presidente, Senado, hindi nila maintindihan kung ano ba talaga ginagawa yan. They have very little expectations of how their lives will improve.

Your trust can't be broken. Ang lungkot. Baka may mga nanonood na mga single diyan. It hurts. The expectations are so low. It's hurt. It's hurt.

So it's a good thing sa Pilipinas. Because usually that's where performance comes in. Anong nagawa? Track record. Pero sa Pilipinas, reputations are really made on PR. Talagang kung sino may hawak ng media, kung sino may control ng media, traditional, social, mobile media, you can build a reputation off of that.

So anong pumapasok ng katulad niyo?

Dapat yung perception tugma sa reality. Pero alam mong malungkot kung magaling talaga yung kinuha mong PR, katulad ko, one can substitute for the other. Kung wala ka masyadong performance, bawiin mo na lang sa recognition. Kung yung reality hindi maganda, abay alter the perception.

I'm not putting this in the context specifically of the trust ratings of PBBM and BPE in Daisara. Because nakita naman natin overwhelming yung victory nila. Talagang kinambaka nila yung kalaban nila. So hindi nakakagulat yan na mataas ang trust rating nila.

Pero malungkot talaga na kadalasan, trust rating, major factor talaga kung sino may hawak ng media, sino yung nakahire ng magaling team.

So ibig sabihin, pwede isang public official bugok, non-performing, pero pwede bihisan in terms of public image na magaling ito, action man. Pwede ganoon?

So araw-araw lumalabas nag-Facebook live. Pero pag talagang tinignan mo, ano ba ginagawa yan sa Facebook live? Wala, naglalakad sa kalsada.

Kung nakita ng team mo na yung performance natin medyo kulang, bawiin natin sa recognition. And the last pillar, na-discuss natin yung convenience and inheritance, expectation, reputation.

Ang huling pillar of political trust sa Pilipinas is devotion. In other words, blind allegiance. Kahit ano pang gawin yan magtitiwala kami.

Kung kinalaban ng isang Ian Esguerra yung bata ko, upakan ko siya sa social media, araw-araw ko siya itutroll. Dahil kahit ano pang whether tama si Ian, tama ba yung sinasabi, totoo ba, hindi. I'm devoted to my manok. I will trust my manok regardless of what happens. It's blind allegiance.

Q1. Ano ba pumapasok ang sense of ownership? Tumaya ka na sa isang kandidato or public official, na-identify mo ni sarili mo ron, so may ownership ka sa kanya? At mapapahiya ka pag hinahamin mo na parang bugok kaya pinili ko?

Because trust, when you say trust, that's actually based on faith. Ano ba yung faith sa Tagalog? Pananampalataya. Tumataya ka. You're betting something. You're giving of yourself. Tumataya ka. Pananampalataya. So that's exactly that feeling. Kaya may blind allegiance.

Actually perfect yung, again, sasabihin mo na naman Ian that my example is too specific. That's why there is, in fact I will name the names. In the Philippines, there is that phrase that is brilliant, that is beautiful, that leverages on devotion. It's parin. Parin. Parin. Marcos parin.

So babanatan mo, di ba hindi, wala naman talaga yung taliana gold, wala naman yung how can he achieve 20 pesos rice, etc. etc. You're trying to argue with points. And then the person will just say, basta Marcos parin.

Alam na alam mo yan Ian. Dinugdungan lang nila ng mga ulol. Duterte parin mga ulol. Wala naman dirty finger. Walang gaalam po sa mga makikinig. But it's that. It's that blind devotion.

And the word I really wanted to say, but I was able to catch myself no matter what the mess up is. Parin. Blank parin. F up. F up yung word. So a brilliant political, like me, hindi. Loko lang. A brilliant political communications team will zero in on that and leverage on it.

Kaya nauso yung concept natin, yung strategy or strategist yan. It has reached a ridiculous level. So I'm talking about one candidate in particular na parang outwardly kalokohan na yung ginagawa. Pero yung mga fans, strategy yan. Brilliant strategy. What a strategist.

Pero pag tanongin mo sa kanila, ano yung strategy na yan, hindi nila rin may explain. That's devotion for you. So that's where trust ratings come from.

Yan ba yung fake sophistication? Yung alam mong basura yung ginagawa. Sabihin nilang may rhyme and reason behind that chaos. Parang ganun. May sophistication.

Yes. It's again, the emperor's new clothes, diba? Just because everybody is saying, wow, what a brilliant strategy. Oh my gosh, diba? Ano siya? Seemingly mali-mali yung ginagawa, pero hindi. Strategy yan. It's that blind devotion that also.

These are the pillars of political trust. But again, I'm not saying, bago ako upakan ng mga commenters, hindi ko sinasabi yan ang mga nag-a-apply kung bakit mataas or bakit ganyan ang numbers ni PBBM at VPISD.

Again, let me qualify. It's not surprising because my gosh, they got an overwhelming majority of votes and that trust bank does not easily erode. Sorry Yan, go ahead.

On SB19, undecided 45. Iniisip ko, reliable ba itong aspect na itong survey, pati yung sagot at tanong? Alam ba ng mga survey, for instance, kung anong function ng Chief Justice? O baka reflective itong impressions na ito, dun sa impression na hindi sa Chief Justice kundi dun sa Supreme Court itself? What do you think?

I think it's better to conduct an ATSP or trust and approval survey. But some survey firms, alam ko, bago magtanong, gumagawa sila ng qualified statement na alam niyo ba kung ano ang mga tungkulin ng Supreme Court? And then they will wait for an affirmative answer.

Opo, naiintindihan niyo ba kung ano ang role and function ng Korte Suprema at ng Chief Justice? Oo. But...

Pati test ba yan? Pwede man ako moood.

Ang Pilipino must always handsome. Kailangan parating pogi. Hindi ko naman naaminin. Hindi ko alam. So yes, in my opinion, I have no data to back it up, but definitely from my decades of experience, especially when it comes to legislation and the judicial branches of government,

mababa ang comprehension ng karamihan sa mga kababayan natin tungkol sa exact duties and functions.

So yes, 44% trust. Yan pa rin ang question ko. How accurate is this? Kasi baka nakita nila hindi ko mapapagkatewalaan ito. Hindi ko gusto yung mukha. Sasagot na lang ako.

But again, that's the thing. Mismong responded. Kasi very nuanced. Kahit mga studyante mo I'm sure pag tinanong mo, ano ang exact difference between trust and approval? Even that in itself baka hindi nila matumbok.

Q1. Ano nga ba?

The best example you can use to differentiate trust and approval is a driver, a Grab driver for example, or your own family driver. Minsan, hindi ka-approve dun sa ginawa niya dahil hindi maganda. Alimbawa, hindi na nalinis yung windshield or pangit yung radio station na pinili niya. You don't approve of that.

But overall, at the end of the day, you trust that he'll bring you to where you need to go safely and that he will not hold you up and steal your wallet, etc. So it's that. So mas importante ang trust.

Q2. Ang ganda ng paliwanag na yung difference between trust and approval. Pero pagdating sa national officials, hindi ba makakalagkad naman ng trust mo yung approval mo? Miski bokya ka sa maraming ginagawa pero talagang nandun yung fanaticism?

It depends on the mood at the time the survey was taken. Anong tinikang survey na yan? Walang issue.

So yan iba po yan sa zilot. Ang zeitgeist iba po yan sa zilot. Zilot po ang mga ganit kay Ian Esguerra. Iba pa yan. Iba pa yan. Si paring led yan. Si paring led.

It's like a driver or a terrible example. Pero nandito na tayo. I went there. Mga kaibigan mo, you trust them all the time. You love them all the time. It's love and like.

But there may be days na batrip ka ng konti, nainis ka ng konti dahil may nagawa siya sayo na batrip naman si so and so. But overall, your friendship has not waned. The way you regard that person, there is still that loyalty and affection. So yan yung trust.

It's exactly like a friendship.

Yan yung necessary steps. Huli na lang. The first one is awareness. As a public official, you should be most worried about your awareness. Kinakalimutan ka na ng tao. Hindi ka matunog. That's the one you should worry about. Susunod na yung trust.

Okay. Eto, sorry. Madalas natin mag-imagine ito sa mga relasyon. Pag nawala na yung tiwala, may hirap nang ibalik. Ganoon din ba sa public officials?

Absolutely, especially in the Philippines. Pero ika-qualify ko yung sagot ko sa napakagandang tanong mo. Napakahirap basagin ngayon ng tiwala ng botanting Pilipino.

You can almost trace it to when the phenomenon happened. Pero for some reason, yung tinatawag din ng OAI, Order of Attribute Inference, hindi na nao-offend ang mga Pilipino. Parang lantara na, napatunayan na, na magdanakaw yung tao. Okay lang, di sila offended.

Dati mga issue, babaero, wala na ngayon yan. In fact nakakadagdag pa yan. Foul mouth, nakakadagdag pa yan, macho. So the short answer to your question is once nabasag ang tiwala ng botanting Pilipino, yes hindi mo na makukuha yan. Napakahirap. But napakahirap din mabasag yan.

Q1. Pero naalala ko ng 1998 campaign, President Joseph Estrada, issue din naman yan, moral issues raised by many sectors, particularly Catholic Church hierarchy. Kamuhawabae, pag-inom, pero panalo pa rin. Parang hindi ba reflection din ba basta tumahaya ka sa isang kandidata wala ka ng pakailang?

Q1. So examples like, magandang gabi po Sen. Tol, you remember the example in the not-so-recent past when Sen. Francis Tolentino had that rally na may dancing girls siya, naalala mo yan?

So may mga ganyan. Iyan sa totoo lang kung mangyari yan ngayon, walang pakailaman tao. I mean for that seemingly small issue now, wala, hindi na napapansin. So nagbabago rin ang panlasa at tolerance level, kumakapal din ang mga kalyo natin."

And I will say this, I think I will be 90% confident in saying this, I don't think we will ever see a political phenomenon like former President PRRD. That man was bulletproof. That man was bulletproof, absolutely airtight, nothing will stick to him, don't even try.

So I don't think we will ever see another phenomenon like that. Truly amazing.

But to his Cabinet members who at that time were trying to project the same thing, who were trying to project that Brusco, every man, take no prisoners style, rogue style of PRRD, wala, hindi umipek ito.

So to use another brilliant 80s analogy, way of the ninja, only a ninja can kill a ninja, sabi ni Shoko Sugi. So only a Duterte can inherit the invulnerability of a Duterte.

Q2. Ang pagiging Teflon President ni President Duterte, you think ganoon din ang situation ngayon with President Marcos? Kahit anong iba ito, walang didikit?

I think my personal observance as a so-called veteran and as a so-called more learned observer of this discipline and practice. Like I said, I don't think we'll ever see anybody that will enjoy the same Teflon-like qualities of former PRRD.

Si BBM, I think PBBM, I think is, if anything, I can say he's enjoying going straight down the middle right now. He's flying nice straight down the middle, hindi naman siya na-involve sa any major controversy.

He's quote-unquote staying out of the limelight and enjoying the embers of his overwhelming political victory. So I think that's really what's happening right now.

Again, to use that Teflon metaphor, di naman kaya kasi. Sa dami ng binato, nakadikit naman talaga, kita na mga taong maduminay sa oto. Di ba, there could also be that. Again, we go back to that point of the Filipino voter being calloused.

So butante talaga, di ba Ian? Butante talaga ang dito. At the core and root of it all is really the electorate. It's really the voter more than the candidate.

Ito may nagpaalala ng history ng konti. The older Herman. Di ba, kayo ang nag-erup eh. Yes, yes, yes. Erup para sa mahirap. Pinaalala ni Seven Samurai eh.

Kay Erup, nagmula yung ano daw? It was briefly flashed.

Kay Erup, nagsimula yan. Tatay ni Alan Herman. Parang may galit ah. May din ah.

Magandang gabi po Mr. Seven Samurai. Hindi po namin, hindi ko dini-deny yan. Yes, my father was very much involved in the image building and the campaign of former President Erup Estrada.

Yes, go ahead.

Kasi naalala ko ng time na yan. So yung issue na pag-inom niya, gambling, lahat-lahat, kayo nag-ayos? Your father?

Yes, we did have a very, very direct hand in shaping the narrative. Di ba, baka I will be more politically corrected my terminology, inayos.

Kasi pag sinabi mo inayos, parang talagang finabricate. Inano lang, shape lang yung narrative. Inano lang, sinuabe. Kasi again, we will not make stuff up.

At Mr. Seven Samurai, I can assure you of that naman po sir. We are flower arrangers po.

Di ba, sa isang flower arrangement, may mga bulaklak na hindi masyado maganda, medyo wilted, medyo patay-patay, at may mga bulaklak na maganda.

Flower arranger, itatago yan, isa surround. Pero hindi natatanggalin yan or hindi na i-deny na meron.

Or hindi na sasabihin sa tao na lahat yan buhay. At least the ones with principles. So kami po, flower arranger lang po kami. We try to hide the wilted flowers.

Okay. Finally Alan, yung mga ganyang trust and approval ratings, paano dapat siya tinitingnan ng mga ordinary Filipinos na nababaritaan siya, na nare-report sa media?

Sana, is the question what is the ideal, Ian? Or how should they take it?

Ako, sana they take it with a critical eye. Ang unang dapat tanongin nila is, bakit ganito kataas yung trust and approval?

Ang ganda ng term ng mga Pinoy ngayon, ang mga mas bata sa atin, deserve ba niya? Deserve? Deserve ba nila?

And then you will be critical in involving yourself and really finding out and distilling whether this candidate deserves the trust and approval numbers if the perception is actually reflective of what is real.

Tama ba? Sana ganoon ng ano. At huwag tayo madala sa bandwagon kasi kadalasan ang Pinoy nadadala talaga sa bandwagon effect.

Sadly, bakit nakita nila yung trust and approval ratings, yung mga iba dyan, ibabasin nila yung buong opinion nila.

Paniniwala nila base sa numero. O yan, yan ang mga dapat supportahan, yung mga matataas. Dapat yung mga bababa, huwag na natin supportahan.

Mali po kasi ang daming factors involved. Let's always, wow I've said this a million times in your show, Ian.

Let us relentlessly pursue the truth. Ano ba yung katotohanan? Do the numbers tell the whole story?

Do they?

In terms of my, oh my God, parang si Tito Boya. In terms of my discipline, purely from the lens of a persuasion specialist like myself and a political communicator and strategist, yes they do.

Yes they do. I mean we're still talking about an overwhelmingly popular president and vice president who are both beneficiaries of political machinery and name recall like no other.

Hindi naman nadawit sa any major controversies.

Okay. Maraming salamat Mr. Allan Herman.

Maraming salamat din Ian. Pasensya na medyo yung mga ibang naglabasan yung mga edad natin. But thank you to all our listeners as well.

Nasa 35 na tayo.

Waistline, waistline.

Walang pagsisinungaling yan. 35 na. Nadaanan.

Nadaanan, nadaanan. Tawa, tawa.

Salamat, salamat. Thank you.

Thank you, thank you boss. Salamat. Good night.

Salamat. Good night.

So again ako hindi ko dinidispute yung resulta ng survey. I don't discredit Pulse Asia. It's one of the reputable survey firms. Alam ko marami sa inyo ayaw sa Pulse Asia pero talagang may track record dyan whether you like it or not.

Ang mas gusto kong pagtuunan ng pansin doon yung reliability ng sagot at saka ng tanong. Okay? Kasi nga pinapoint out ko lagi dyan yung paano mo masasabi na aprobado ka sa ginagawa ng house speaker kung hindi mo naman naiintindihan talaga yung trabaho.

So pwedeng pinupulot mo lang kung saan saan yung sagot mo dyan. So basically the responses coming from many respondents I suppose and I think I'm not wrong in this.

So I don't think that is actually that nuance in terms of reflecting what is actually out there. Pero yun nga credible pa rin yung resulta. Talaga marami nagtitiwala.

So next time, mas gusto ko sanang makita yung mas nuance na pagtingin doon sa pagtitiwala at saka sa approval ng mga respondents natin. Okay?

So marami salamat po sa inyo at magkita-kita po tayo bukas sa isa na naman po episode ng ating Facts Verse. Again, marami salamat po sa pananood ngayong gabi.

Thank you for watching!