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Yon! Kamusta bro? How are you? Happy Chinese New Year!

Happy Chinese New Year sa mga viewers po natin at listeners.

Good naman, good naman, okay naman.

Anong ginawa mo na?

Haba ng January e.

Parang wala pang ilang araw yung shutdown ng NIA tapos China.

Ang dami nangyari.

O.

Tarape medyo active na active. Di pa tapos. May isi-tango pa.

May ilang araw pa. Ang dami pang pwedeng mangyari. Sa Monday.

Yon, daming mangyayari din.

Ayun na. Parang talagang ano ka ha. Madam Auring ha. Alam na alam na yung mga...

Isa kongreso yun.

Oo. Isa pa yan. Pag-usapan natin yun.

I see yung kongreso. Nako, invitado pala ako dun sa Constitutional Amendments. Yung pala yung letter ng date na sent sa kabilang bahay. Wala na ako dun.

Oh my goodness sabi ko. Hinaanap yan. Wala ko dun e.

Nako, pag nandun ako, nagbardagulan kami for sure yan.

Tingnan ko, sanang ma-invite ako sa next session para mag-share tayo dyan.

Anong ginawa naman yung Chinese New Year? Kami bumunta kami dun sa ano e.

Sa Chinatown. Dinala ko yung nanay ko ano. Ikaw ano ginawa mo e?

Ano e. Sa bahay lang ako. Di na ako...

Di ka na pumunta sa ano?

Oo.

Di ka na nag-Dolomite Beach?

Oo. Hindi na. Hindi na.

Uy! Nakita mo yung mga pictures sa Dolomite Beach? Yung mga foreigners nakikisanbaiting dun?

Nakita mo yan?

Sabi ko, pakitoxicity test mga yan. Pagkataposin natin yung anong katawan nila.

Alright. Now balikan natin. Sabi mo nga January pa lang ang dami nangyari.

At of course yung isa nangyari dyan is tuloy-tuloy itong internal civil war sa mga supporters of the big Marcos Duterte kind of axis to put it that way.

So anong mga latest dyan sa blogosphere pagdating sa away sa lob? Mukhang medyo nagninex level na.

Itong buong January talagang may mga iba na full-on nag-aaway na talaga. DDS versus mga loyalista.

Nag-tuturoan na. Pero yung biggest pasabog na nangyari happened a few days ago dun sa blog nung si Maharlika.

Maharlika yung ito yung naka-iglases na... Wait lang para...

Yes. Na nasa states.

Na nasa states. Yeah. Na talagang ever since... Marcos talaga siya na sumakay lang sa DDS dati. Pero Marcos talaga siya.

Marcos loyalist talaga siya. DDS talaga yan.

Maharlika. Loyalista talaga. Pero simula nung nagka-problema nung kay Vic Rodriguez, around September-October, doon eh. Parang araw-araw na tinikiran niya si first lady and then susunod si President Marcos na...

Sa kanya nagsimula yung buong babaing ahas na issue noong October.

So mas close sila kay Vic Rodriguez talaga? I mean what's going on there? Because Vic Rodriguez was in charge of the bloggers and anong...

Of course again, we're all speculating here. Wala naman tayong smoking gun. This is not a litigation case. We're just basing it doon sa... Anong hypothesis yan? Bakit parang super pro-Vic Rodriguez itong mga bloggers na yan?

Nagsalita si tatay Harry Roque a few days ago lang din defending si first lady. At ang turo niya, kaya daw nagsasalita ng kanyang sila maharlika at ilang bloggers ay baka dahil dito kay Vic Rodriguez.

Sumagot naman si Vic Rodriguez na huwag mo akong isali dyan. Nagsagutan sila online noong isang araw. Ako personally...

Wait lang, wait lang. Ulitin natin. So Harry Roque versus Vic Rodriguez?

Yes.

Wow.

Sinabi ni Vic Rodriguez kay Harry Roque na kung gusto mo ng posisyon, use your credentials, huwag yung pangalan ko.

Right, right. Kasi clearly malapit na matapos ang deadline doon sa mga natalo last election. So Harry Roque is in a good spot to be the next presidential spokesman again right?

Yes. Kailangan din e. Kailangan din e bongbong si President kasi talagang sa communications medyo di talaga okay.

Kasi nakasagutan sila, ngayon nalang lumutang si Vic Rodriguez ulit after 1 month. Kasi para sagutin niyo. Yun yung pinapalabas sa side nila Harry Roque.

Wait lang, lumitaw siya on his own vlog?

Post lang sa Facebook.

Ah nag-post siya sa Facebook. Ito yung nasara na dati na cyber na nagreklamo siya. Hindi ba yun yung page?

Oo yata yun yata.

Wow. Iba.

Ito yung sinasabi ng mga pro-Marcos na baka si Vic yung gumagawa niyan. Ako personally, tingin ko noong October, totoo yan.

Baka yung mga maka-Vic ang ano. Pero ngayon kasi tingin ko it's much deeper. Parang meron na talagang moves talaga to pahinain talaga yung Marcos administration.

Junior.

This is more than just Vic Rodriguez lang na sinanggal si Vic kaya gaganti tayo. Parang hindi ganun.

Asahan natin in the next 1-2 years talagang full-on tatanggalin talaga. Yun ang tingin ko.

Wow. So that means madugo ang midterms niyan? Kasi lahat ang opposition na yan. Kasama pa si Tatay Digong yan. The ratings are going.

Tuloy-tuloy. Pero yan nanggagaling sa DDS kasi ang ingay against Marcos. Alam natin kung gaano ang bunganga ng mga DDS. Ngayon Marcos is feeling yung pamandag ng mga DDS.

Tapos ang nangyari nga nung nag-post si Maharlika, medyo mabigat din ang kanyang accusations. Kasi noong October, babae nga ha, splined item lahat. Ngayon kaya mabigat, pinangalanan niya.

Na-name drop na sila ng mga allegedly people involved sa supposed smuggling of cebullas. Pinangalanan niya na alleged involved. So it started noong Tuesday, nagpatawag ng investigation sa Kongreso si Congressman Tuan Sing ng Sultan Kudarat.

Right. Kasi sa Mindanao galing din yung ibang cebullas. So mas alam nila ang situation on the ground. Kasi ang presyon ng cebullas on the ground, parang mga 5, 6, 7, 8 pesos pa rin.

Simply factor yan. Exactly what's going on here. Pero sinasabi niya na he's the only one brave enough na harapin ang smugglers na ito. So nagbigay siya ng mga pangalan, 10 pangalan ng mga tao na pinatawag for a hearing sa Monday.

Oh so yun yung sinasabi mo na baka Monday may pasabog sa Congress. So ito yung issue ng smuggling at horting. Smuggling onions, cebullas, yun ang pag-uusapan. Tapos nagpangalan niya ng mga kumpanya na possibly involved. So lahat ito, alleged lang ito lahat.

Pero hindi pa pwede magsapin na basta-basta lang. There has to be some reasonable grounds. Hindi pwede, feel ko, ipasapin ako si Mark Gambo. So it meets some minimum threshold for an investigation to really kick in.

Tapos sila Maharlika, yung sinasabi nila ba, tumatugma ba dito sa linyan? Ito na yung bombshell. Ang unang pangalan na sinama doon is someone by the name of Michael Ma.

Michael Ma, it might be a common name, hindi natin alam. Pero si Maharlika ang ginawa niya, itinugtong niya, ito bang Michael Ma na ito na pinapatawag sa Kongreso, ito ba yung business partner ng kapatid ni First Lady na si Martin Araneta.

So ganoon yung line of si Maharlika. We're not saying that's the truth. We're just saying, exactly. I get that.

Sa mga ibang kausap ko, legit businessman daw Michael Ma na sinasabing si Maharlika. Ito yung medyo kicker doon. Si Michael Ma is head ng isang kumpanya, China Philippine Unified Enterprises.

Nandun si Martin Araneta kasama din sa mga directors doon. Yung opisina niya is the same office ng law firm ni First Lady.

So he's making a story out of it. Parang yun yung connecting of the dots version.

Exactly. Okay I get what you're saying. So ang gusto ko, ang interesting to watch out for is whether yung investigation sa Kongreso mismo will take a similar line of inquiry.

Kasi kung talagang ka-agree ito yung sinasabi ni Maharlika, di maging iba rin yung line na investigation. Let's be honest, it's not like this blogger person is necessarily the most legitimate person out there. But if the Congressional investigation kind of mirrors itong mga allegations na yan, then medyo parang what's going on here.

Kaya abangan talaga ng hearing sa Monday. Abangan talaga. On the other side naman, narinig ko naman itong si Michael Ma is a legitimate businessman talaga, hindi naman involved sa ganyan.

It's just a subpoena. It doesn't mean anything. It's just a questioning process. Right. Exactly.

So yun naman yung narinig ko sa kabilang side. So yun ang... Let's see. I have a question Mark. Of course, kinover natin si Tatay Digong for quite some time and all.

Do you have a sense na because si Bong Mo Marcos ay hindi, kasing let's just use the word, tapang ni Paulong Duterte, parang this is creating a sense na for some people na baka we can push the boundaries here?

Kasi yung fear factor ay parang hindi na katulad dati. Amin natin, panahon ni Paulong Duterte, malaki talaga yung fear factor for understandable reasons. And Paulong Digong mismo would mumurahin ka nun.

Pangalanan ka talaga yun. I mean Bong Mo Marcos is not that kind of person. Siya yung talaga pang Davos, pang world diplomacy. Yung talagang forte niya or yung talagang comfort zone niya. So do you think may ganoon na element na parang may mga...

There are people who are smelling, I won't say weakness, but they're smelling an opportunity to push the boundaries and see how far they can get.

Pero exactly, exactly yung sinabi mo. Ganoon talaga yung nangyayari.

Masa mo no?

Oo. Ang term na madalas kumaralik, masyadong mabait. Masyadong mabait na nakaabuso. Alam natin, puro mga kanya-kanyang self-interest, kanya-kanyang buhaya, kanya-kanyang kitaan.

E politika talaga natin.

At game of thrones talaga. So baka hindi talaga kung masyado kang mabait, kanya-kanya yung nangyayari.

Good Machiavelli. Good Machiavelli ni madam dati. Good Machiavelli. Baka good na lang wala na Machiavelli.

Speaking of tatay, obviously itong issue ng ICC ay hindi lang nabuhayan, nagkaroon ng momentum ulit. At alam natin, isang malaking indicator ito of where the DDS Marcos or whatever BBM side of the Marcos equation is

kasi meron pa yung, hindi lang yung mga Maharlika, meron pa yung IME equation, IME quotient dito sa formula.

Where do you see that one going? Doon sa blogosphere? What is the state of debate doon sa ICC issue?

Because obviously yung stance ng government is similar doon sa stance ng dating administration. After all, Guevara who was the former justice secretary is now the solicitor general.

But obviously, si BBM gusto niya ipakita ang Pilipinas na law-abiding, international responsible country. Siguro masesense mo, hirap din si BBM dito.

Pero anong debate online? Is the debate there that BBM is not defending Tatay Digong enough or that he is doing enough or that he might change his mind?

Ano yung state of debate ng mga vloggers sa online, sa YouTube? Wala masyado. Everything is still defending Tatay, defending Digong.

So the ranks are solid. Solid pa rin. Walang umano. Doon sa buong issue na sinabi ko, insulated pa rin si Tatay Digong. Doon sa buong unity, may still well-loved.

Gusto pa rin nilang protectahan. And of course, kay BBM, hindi din kasi yung VP niya ang directly maaapektuhan. So why rock the boat?

For me, it's not rocking the boat. It's more like not protecting the boat enough. You know what I'm saying. It's more like that.

I'm just wondering if some of Duterte's supporters are coming out and saying, bakit si BBM hindi all out dyan? I'm more wondering around that.

Kasi alam natin, di ba yun yung issue kay BBM ng kabila, meaning the DDS, not opposition. In a sense that pagdating sa red tagging,

parang si BBM ay hindi ganong katapang or pagdating sa issue ng federalism, hindi siya ganong kagangho or sa issue for instance ng drug war, hindi siya ganong katapang.

That's what I'm saying. Di ba yun yung naging line of criticism ng mga top supporters ni Tatay Digong.

Kinda sa BBM administration. Di ba pinag-usapan natin si Abe, yung nag-resign siya sa SMNI nun. It had to do with that.

Kasi nakita natin first SONA pa lang, the issue was not rocking the boat. The issue was not protecting the boat enough against the new waves.

Ito yung parang kontekstong sinasabing natin. Because obviously Marcos is not in the mood to go against Duterte openly. I don't think that's what he's going to do.

But will he stand by them 100% the way the other side expects? I think that's where things are interesting.

I don't know. Ikaw bro. From the SONA up to today, mas lumapit ang policy ni Marcos sa gusto ng mga Duterte. Naguhan nila ang gusto nila. Si Clarita Carlos nasipa sa NSA, nabalik ang budget ng NTF-LCAP.

Nabalik na rin yung cha-cha discussions. Biglang mayinit na naman ulit. Lahat ng gusto nila. Sa war on illegal substance naman, si Abelor kaya pinag-resign yung mga PNP daw dahil daw doon.

So ang basa mo is he's leaning naman giving them. So parang in a way, Marcos is doing both. In a sense, domestically, what you're suggesting is he's giving concessions or accommodating more.

I don't want to use the word catering. Pero sa foreign policy at the same time, he's projecting a more liberal presidency. Na open sa business, more democratic, more human rights.

So he's kind of doing this. Medyo nag-double-balance. The thing is hindi naman siya natatanong about sa ICC. Hindi pa. He tries to avoid the topic. Si Justin Secretary talaga.

So what's the need? Parang walang upside if he will abide doon sa gusto ng ICC.

I think the most fascinating thing that came out of our discussions and that's why parating gusto yung catch-up natin is because let's be honest, very few of us expected this to happen which is parang mahina yung communications things ni BBM considering how good he was, his communications was during the campaign period.

Like parang Paul Soriano, what's up? Creative communications, kamusta? Kaya nga sabi ko siguro hinintay talaga nila si Harry Roque sa paraban ng April-May. Pag tapos na yung deadline, pwede na siya mapasok.

Harry Roque will be the kind of, alam mo na, feeling the gap. So I'm kind of surprised by that. Do you see any effort to adjust to make the creative communications department more effective? Anong basa mo doon? Bati sila parang safety nila. May BBM rin sila. Let's just go with the flow and keep things on threshold.

What made Tatay Digong effective? Yung kanyang communications na ginagawa. Yung pagka-ruthless niya. Yung ipin, may kagat.

May killing instinct siya.

Oo. May atake na if you go against us, lahat kami uulan against you. Yan ang nawala. Communications ni BBM, yung usual, yung normal. Media, ito yung mga projects, ito yung mga ganon.

Everything is rosy. GDP ang taas. Unemployment kumaba. Ganon e. Kaso ang napapansin niya, lalo yung mga pahilig sa mga online na parda gulad, nawala yung pagiging... nawala yung mga attack dogs.

Yan ang malaking difference. Si Paul Soriano mismo, he had the instinct for... Ano siya? He's a natural influencer himself. I know there's a joke about BBM being part-time vlogger or part-time.

But that's really Paul Soriano creative. Kay Tatay, hindi niya kailangan ng production. Talagang siya mismo, he knows what to get the attention, to get the headlines, magdrama siya, mag-speech siya. Tapos hindi siya takot na sumablay-sablay yung sinasabi niya.

Basta he commands the stage. Even if parang sabog yung plot, basta akin yung stage. And the audacity itself keeps people interested in him or even makes people sympathetic to him.

Parang may paka-antihero siya. Siya yung classic antihero sa mga plot niya. And none of that with BBM. As far as we understand.

Si Tatay Digong is similar to Donald Trump. Ganon din. Parang kung anong masabi, kahit na hindi maganda pero nakakaano pa rin, kay BBM wala.

Ganon talaga yung style niya. Siguro Duterte is unique in that way. Pero yun nga, yun nahanap siguro ng iba.

Parang he set the bar. In certain sense, President Duterte set the bar very low in terms of to be diplomatic, statesmanlike. So that made it easy for Marcos.

But in another sense, he set the bar very high. Yung aggressiveness, yung hands-on micromanaging, yung talagang challenging taboos.

So I think this is where lumalabas din yung legacy ni Duterte ay much more difficult than perhaps BBM expected in terms of managing the fallout.

But here's the thing. Ito yung sinasabi ko rin parate. Ngayon yung mga iba bumaliktad. Ibang DTS bumaliktad, tinitira yung si Marcos.

Pero the thing is, tingin ko wala din masyadong efekto overall yung kanilang team. In terms of popularity. They can turn a few.

Pero overall, parang masyadong malakas yung binuo nilang unique team. Para kahit sila mismo, yung coalition na binuo nila, kahit sila mismo, sila na yung bumaliktad, hindi din.

Hindi mo din makukumbinsi ka agad yung tao ka agad. I think the only way na... is pag sila mismo yung nagtirahan, si Duterte at sila Marcos.

Pag sila mismo ang nag-away, doon, doon talaga. Pero habang-habang magkasama pa sila or parang okay pa sila, hindi talaga...

Yung mga tao hindi din ganoon nadadala doon sa mga paninira ng...

So parang ang basa ko dito, kasi with Duterte, the argument was like he's having... he's a strongman without a dictatorship.

Hindi niya kailangan magdeklara ng martial law. Siya na yung tatay. In the case of BBM, he doesn't also need populism.

He just has a solid ruling coalition of traditional politicians, of the Dutertes, of other people, even some Dilaos support his administration for many reasons, relations with U.S., business, etc.

So parang what you're saying is that Marcos is having hegemony, political hegemony, without either being a dictator or even a populist.

Which is quite an interesting... what's going on here, right?

Pero ang problema dyan, how long can he keep this up? Lalo na kapag they start attacking him na. Kasi mukhang may plano talagang tanggalin siya.

I keep on hearing it but I'm just not convinced because I believe Martin Romaldes, Migs Zubiri, he has these solid people who are still betting on him and are hoping that they will get his support down the road.

But again, Philippine politics being Philippine politics.

Here's the thing. Si Martin Romaldes of course to go. But how about the congressman? Ang loyalty ba nila kay Marcos or kay DGPong or GMA?

But who has the resources?

Wala pang solid na Marcos talaga.

But who has the resources, right? It's still the government, right? And who's the president? That's my point.

The power of appointments. And my sense is in the next two to three months, Marcos Junior will have a lot of chance to even broaden his coalition by bringing some DDS people into cabinet.

Potentially ISCO into cabinet. You get what I'm saying?

I think he can augment his ranks even better in the next months or so as a one-year ban on the losing candidates in 2022 elections comes in.

So that's quite an interesting thing.

So I think we can stop this episode so that we can discuss the next episode soon at Union.

What are the constellation of alternative leaders coming out?

And of course dito yung idol mo, si Rafi Tulfo, I think is someone worth discussing.

And then from there, let's transition also to one of the alternatives in the last elections which was Isko Moreno and all of these movies about Ninoy and all.

Salamat bro. Thank you so much for this fantastic episode.

Looking forward to more discussions. Maraming salamat.