#UsapangPera: Mga Tips sa Pagyaman with Sir Vince tackles money issues such as savings, loans, budgeting, and investing among others. Visit Sir VInce's website: www.vincerapisura.com.
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Celebrity guests include venus Raj (Season 1); Nicole Cordovez and
Vince Rapisura
Run time: 04:41
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00:00.0
Ano ba yung Black Swan events? Kung hindi mo alam yan, malamang po ay hindi ka pa advanced na investor.
00:06.6
Kasi para sa mga advanced investors, ang concept na ito ay hindi na bago.
00:11.6
Para kayo ay makatungtong ng onte maging advanced investors, ano nga ba yung Black Swan events?
00:18.6
Ang Black Swan events are events that are highly unlikely and unpredictable.
00:25.2
Yung talagang, oh my God, nangyari ba talaga yan? Para lang yung pagkatalo ni Celeste sa Miss Universe,
00:33.2
hindi natin inasahan na siya ay wala sa top 16. Black Swan event po ang tawag doon.
00:41.0
So hindi siya expected to happen and is often outside normal expectations.
00:47.6
So ano yung mga halimbawa natin ng Black Swan events?
00:50.8
Siyempre, ito nangkakapangyari lang, COVID-19 pandemic nagumpisa noong 2020.
00:57.4
Ang Indian Ocean tsunami noong 2004, naalala niyo yun?
01:01.2
Christmas time ito nag-tsunami and 176,000 people died because of this tsunami.
01:08.4
Ang 9-11 terrorist attacks in 2001, this is also an example of a Black Swan event.
01:18.8
At ang collapse ng Soviet Union, bago nagkaroon ng Russia at nagkaroon ng mga Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan,
01:24.8
mga ganyan na ibang-ibang countries, Ukraine for example, dahil yan nabuwag yung Soviet Union.
01:32.2
So ito ay mga hindi inaasahan, highly unpredictable pero nangyari siya
01:38.0
at makakaapekto ito ng malaki sa ating ekonomiya. Black Swan events po ang tinatawag niyan.
01:45.4
Pero gaya nga nang sabi ko sa inyo, sa mundo naman ng Miss Universe ng mga sangka-Baklaan,
01:53.0
yun nga yung hindi nakapasok si Celeste sa top 16 sa Miss Universe, yan po ay Black Swan event para sa amin.
02:02.4
Ang aking Philippine economic outlook for 2023, I think elevated pa rin ang ating magiging inflation for the first half.
02:10.8
So mataas pa rin ang inflation natin kasi ang full year target ng BSP ay nasa 4.5%
02:17.8
pero ang target lang niya talaga ay 2-4%, yun yung ideal sana.
02:23.8
So mukhang for the first half mataas pa rin ang ating inflation, pababa siya by the end of the year
02:29.8
pero hindi niya kayang ipababa ito na napapasok sa target ng BSP.
02:36.8
Ang target GDP naman ng gobyerno natin for 2023 ay 6% ang GDP growth
02:43.8
but I think there's a subdued global growth, yung subdued global growth natin could slow OFW remittances
02:51.8
na po pwedeng maka-apekto dito sa ating GDP growth.
02:54.8
Dahil siyempre ang isa sa mga nagdadrive ng ating economy ay consumption
02:59.8
at ang pinagagalingan ng pang-consume na yan, pang-bayad na yan, marami galing sa mga OFWs
03:06.8
katulad ninyo, mga nasa Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, kayo ay nagpapadala ng remittances dito sa Pilipinas
03:13.8
at yan ang bumibili ng mga produkto at servisyo dito para masuportahan ng ating ekonomiya.
03:19.8
And I think ang growth driver pa rin natin for 2023 ay ang turismo.
03:25.8
I think marami talaga ang magbabalik sa turismo dahil hindi nakapag-vakasyon ng makailang taon,
03:33.8
mga tatlong taon yun, pero dapat under control talaga ang COVID.
03:37.8
Hindi na nga ni-renew ng government o in-extend ng government ang state of calamity
03:41.8
or state of emergency diba? So that really means na papunta na tayo sa new normal na tinatawag.
03:48.8
The growth will continue and inflation could be tamed barring black swan events.
03:57.8
Alam nyo ba kung ano yung black swan events? Ano nga ba yung black swan events na tinatawag na yan?
04:07.8
So yung black swan events na ito sa tingin ko lang kung hindi mo naiintindihan kung ano yung black swan events.
