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00:00.0
And what's gonna happen next? So some were saying, kasi ganito, if you're never a Marcos group, you might even contemplate teaming up with the functional opposition against the administration.
00:15.0
Now, my problem with that is or I mean the criticism against that would be, I'm not sure about the chances there. It's very hard to go against the administration during midterm elections because midterm elections in the Philippines are pro-incumbency.
00:31.0
But the other one is, wait lang, what are your concerns against with Marcos? What happened again under Duterte's? I'm not talking about Marcos Sr., I'm talking about Marcos Jr. Between Marcos Jr. and Marcos Sr., who is a bigger concern when it comes to human rights? Who's a bigger concern when it comes to West Philippine Sea? Who's a bigger concern when it comes to X, Y, and Z?
00:53.0
So the problem with those who are just focused is never Marcos and maybe open to teaming up with the others. That has its own, right? Now, and then I think there's another group within the ideological opposition who are saying, let's just stay out of this whole thing.
01:11.0
Maybe just pick up the popcorn and try to run as the third force in the 2025 elections or just sit out the 2025 elections. Do grassroots. Popularize some of your promising candidates, but you're really there for 2028, right? Let the 2025 to be unity contest, right? Intra-unity contest or not so unity contest.
01:38.0
But my sense is we might see more and more members of the supposed ideological opposition, people who are from liberal party like Stella Kimbo, people who are affiliated with the opposition, people who run under the opposition, people who used to criticize Marcos Jr. a lot, people who used to present themselves as the antithesis of Marcos, etc.
02:02.0
They might come in and say, Marcos, Duterte, Admin, suddenly not so Admin. That's where we'll end up. Not just a bigger chance, but closer to something that I can work with. So I think what we're going to see is that there's going to be splits also, not only within the ruling coalition within Unity. I think there's going to be some split also within the ideological opposition.
02:29.0
I think there are going to be people there in the real opposition, some of them saying, never Marcos, we'll not work with them. We might even be open to working with the other faction to check them out. There could be another faction. I can't guess who are these guys. Who's going to say, neither, nor. I'm just going to pick my popcorn and I'm just going to prepare for 2028, right? Maybe support some people here and there. I have a feeling, but no.
02:58.0
But I think there'll be more and more people who'll say, I'm not necessarily endorsing it, but this is just my sense about things. And I'm sure Stella Kimbo could be one of them, who'll say, Duterte, Admin, I'm not sure I could work with them. Marcos Jr. Administration, well, it's not necessarily your Norwegian social democratic labor party, but I think I can work with this administration.
03:21.0
And by the way, if it's midterms, you've had to be with the administration because your chances of winning is significantly higher. And if you want to make good change, then that's it. Work with the side that you can work better with. So these are potential people who are not only never Duterte, but also pragmatic people who want to be in the game. And I want to say that, okay, given that for now, for a while Duterte, for a while Marcos, but who knows, in 2028, things could be interesting.
03:48.0
And the idea is that who knows, maybe in 2028, we can converge with other members of the opposition who were not siding with any of the sides, or were running against both sides. But down the road, we can work together. But by that time, I'm going to be much more powerful. By that time, I'm going to be a national figure. By that time, I have built my credentials. Again, and I think Stella Kimbo could be one of those persons.
04:14.0
But I don't think Stella Kimbo is alone. I think there'll be growing, growing temptation by people from the real opposition to say that, I'm not just going to popcorn. Maybe I should join the race. Maybe not even run, but somehow be part of the game and lay down the foundation for 2028.
04:32.0
So essentially, mga kameta, ngayon pa lang, hindi lang nagsimula ang 2025 elections. Mukhang nagsimula na rin ang 2028 elections. Not only in a conceptual sense, not only in terms of just vague forecast or scenario building, I think in terms of actual alignment of forces.
04:59.0
In terms of actual sowing the seeds for what could happen down in 2028. I mean, President Duterte also mentioned 2028 elections and who could be the next president. So that it looks like every side right now has 2028 in their crosshairs.
05:19.0
And as early as right now, nag-iisip ng lahat how to play their game in the best way possible in 2025 so that they'll be in the best position possible for the even bigger fight in 2028. Because mga kameta, I describe the 2022 elections as the most consequential elections in contemporary Philippine history.
05:41.0
But as things stand, I don't think I'm wrong. I don't think I was wrong. I think I was right. And I'm glad many people use my description, which is most consequential. I wrote it in a piece for Al Jazeera English. This is way early in the election period.
05:57.0
My sense is the 2028 elections could be even more consequential for Philippine democracy. Because look at it this way. If babalika mga Dutertes in 2028, then that means that this Marcos Jr. time was just a kind of a, some would say temporary respite or some would say just a temporary break in the inevitable ascendancy of Dutertismo in the Philippines.
06:26.0
Now, but if some people in the opposition, some more moderate elements work their way through and some of the more progressives also play their cards well and smartly in 2025 in preparation for 2028, what could happen actually is in 2028, you may have actually very competitive candidate from the real opposition.
06:48.0
Even someone like Rizal Antiveros, but not only candidate for the presidency, but a number of candidates for the top offices, including the Senate, the Congress, the governor office. So a lot is at stake. So imagine if the real opposition manages to navigate this old Marcos Duterte, unity dynamics so smartly that they'll be in a position to be highly competitive for 2028, right?
07:15.0
Then our interpretation of not only the past six years, but also our interpretation of now in the next five years or four years will also be very different, right?
07:24.0
I'm simplifying it. Actually, this is very Hegelian analysis. The idea is that, may magkunting hugot style yan. I'll just use hugot para ma-explain ko sa nila. Because in Hegelian dialectics, what happens tomorrow shapes your understanding of what happens today or what happened today, right? So the fall shapes your understanding of the original state.
07:51.0
So in short, parang ganito yan. Kunyari, nag-jowa ka, tapos heartbroken ka at hindi gumana ang jowa, tapos nakaanap ka na mas magandang jowa after two years or so. So suddenly, yung heartbreak mo na yan ay parang ay buti nga. I get rid of that. Ano lang pala yan? Parang blessing in disguise yan.
08:16.0
See? So your interpretation of your past changes because of your differential future. Now, of course, the opposite could be also true. Like let's say, nag-jowa ka, blah, blah, blah, hindi nag-work, heartbroken, and then yung sumunod, hindi magandang jowa. So ang mangyari dito is suddenly, ang interpretation of past mo is, ayan na, mag-adel ka na. The one that got away. Do you get what I'm saying?
08:42.0
So, let me turn the jowa into progressive politics. Maybe you then get Lenny in 2022. And you would say, wala nang pag-asa ng Pilipinas. But what if in 2028, you get someone like Riza? Or someone like Lenny again? You know what I'm saying?
09:04.0
Then suddenly, you're gonna look at 2022 and say, nah. The 2022 was not a tragic election. The 2022 was really the wake-up call and the 2020 was just the beginning of a new era of next-level progressive Philippine democracy. Do you get what I'm saying there?
09:22.0
So, if the real opposition manages to navigate these six years and really pulls off some magical thing in 2028 and then really pushes the country in the right direction, suddenly the past six years of tata-style politics and now with junior style will not look so tragic.
09:41.0
It will look like a difficult transition period that put places on the right path to the real and full consummation of a progressive opportunity and moment.
09:53.0
Did you see what I did there? I just explained Hegelian dialectics to you guys by talking about jowas. Do you get what I'm saying?
10:02.0
So, the same heartbreak will have totally different meaning depending on what happens down the road. Do you get what I'm saying? So, I agree with Gatsby. You can't change the past.
10:17.0
Remember there's that line that Gatsby, if you didn't read the book, at least you watched the movie. He's saying that Spiderman is his character. I said, sport but you can't change the past. That's a Hegelian way of putting it.
10:33.0
Now, I'm not sure if Fitzgerald knew Hegel but if Fitzgerald had read Hegel and made a different ending for Gatsby, then Gatsby would have proven right that actually you can change the past.
10:46.0
So, if the real opposition makes the right choice for 2025 and puts them in a position to pull off something special in 2028, yung heartbreak ng mga kakampings dyan in 2022 will suddenly have a completely radically different meaning.
11:03.0
It will look like just the beginning of a new chapter of full consummation and flowering of a progressive Philippines. And in the same vein, if you're pro Duterte and Sarah pulls it up in 2028, then you're gonna look at the past six years, meaning from 2022 to 2020 as learning experience, a moment of humility and all but also now you have your redemption.
11:28.0
Do you get what I'm saying? Do you get what I'm saying here? So, as entertaining as this may seem to you guys, right? And yeah, of course, it's very possible that all of this is just, you know, flash in the pan or all of this is just, you know, a kind of a temporary explosion of dramatics. I'm not ruling that out. Sure.
11:55.0
But parang hindi eh. Parang totoo talaga to eh. We've been talking about this for a few months and now you can see it's escalating. The trajectory is very clear and as we get closer to 2025, I think this will intensify. So, that's what I'm saying here, right?
12:10.0
Ayan, nag-hegel, self-recognition. Okay, this is. But you guys see what I'm saying here, right? You can literally change the past by changing the future, right? Like, so that's why sobrang mahalaga ngayon na yung mga tao na sa totoong opposition, pag-aralan nila ng mabuti, not only alignment of forces,
12:38.0
but also not only winning in 2025, but thinking about vindicating history. Vindicating the pink movement. That's what they want to think about. And if you're pro-Duterte, you also have to play your card very carefully now because if you overreach and you sub-lie it, then you would look at the six years of Tata as just an aberration.
13:03.0
And back to, ayan, mga elitista, mga taga-Manila, mga ganun, right? So, that's why I'm saying, mga kameta, don't give up on the Philippines because you literally can change the past if you play your cards well right now in the next four or five years.
13:18.0
So, I don't care about some people out there who are into this self-righteous, sanctimonious, petty, whatever. You know, I don't care about them. You know why? Because I'm looking at the big movements of history. I'm looking at redemption. I'm looking at, not for myself, thank God I'm trying my best, but I'm looking at redemptive politics.
13:39.0
I'm looking at the possibility of making something out of all the tragedies and difficulties and challenges and polarizing politics we have had. Because, the reason I'm saying this is because I'm looking at the West Philippine Sea issue right now.
13:59.0
At pansin ko, yung mga lumalaban para sa West Philippine Sea ay mas desidido, mas inspired, at hindi lang vindicated eh. Parang, almost may triumphant feeling. Not triumphalist, but almost triumphant.
14:18.0
Because, alam nila, they didn't only have to fight for West Philippine Sea against the bully out there, but they had to fight it through the Tatay Parangay Geopolitics days. So, parang ang sarap ng feeling ngayon na ito na talaga, lumalaban na talaga tayo.
14:37.0
So, in a way, those six years, actually it was about two or three years na talagang Tatay loves China kind of naive parangay style geopolitics. You don't see that as a loss opportunity, but you see that as an opportunity to actually strengthen your will, to develop steely patriotic will, and to fight the West Philippine Sea fight smarter.
15:02.0
And my sense is, if we had pleasant surprise on the West Philippine Sea front so far, why can't we have also pleasant surprises on other fronts? But that's only possible if you hold your ground, play your game smartly, and once you get the opportunities, once you get openings, you go for it.
15:24.0
Okay, wala na, pagod na ako, matulog na ako. But, gets nyo na. Gets nyo yung sinasabi ko dito. So, I am not here na pinag-usapan lang itong politika natin para lang, you know, just making fun or having fun. No, because there's a bigger picture out there.
15:47.0
Mga kameta, there's a bigger, bigger picture out there. There is a possibility for redemption. There's a possibility for things going way, way, wrong. And there's a possibility for strategic learning, right? And there's a possibility for us making the most out of the best that we saw in the Filipino people, not only in last year elections, but over the last six, seven years.
16:11.0
Do you get what I'm saying? Exactly. Perspective is the most important thing. This is not coming out of nowhere. Kanina na I had a conversation with some of our friends na, you know, come from countries that are going through very difficult moments and we went back into ancient history.
16:30.0
Now, I'm not talking about the Middle East, but of course, nang kiramay po tayo sa mga biktima ng mga civilians na matay dyan sa ongoing conflict ngayon. Our hearts and prayers go to them and really we're, our prayers for humanity and sanity to prevail eventually pa rin, sa cycle na yan ay hindi tuloy-tuloy. Now, the person I was talking to awhile ago, they're not from that place, but they're also in countries that are going through very difficult moments of transition.
16:56.0
So what we were doing, Kanina, is we were reaching back into history in order to better understand how can things move for the better in the next 15, 20, 30 years. In the case of the Philippines, luckily, demokrasya tayo guys. May chance talaga tayo na baguyin yung direction ng ating bansa. We kind of did it in the wrong direction at some point, but we can also do it in the right direction.
17:21.0
Sana lang, if ever we get it right this time, hindi na natin sayangin ulit because before, sinayang natin. Got rid of a dictator and then what? Sinayang yung opportunity, complacency. So no room for complacency, but also no room for cynicism.
17:45.0
What we need is healthy skepticism with courage of the will. That's a very, very important thing. But perhaps the most important thing compared to everything else is perspective. And this is what I hope to share with you guys. So yeah, in a Gatsby sense, you can change the past by making a better future for the country.
18:06.0
So yun lang. On that note, thank you very much. Maraming salamat. Sorry, I'm already losing my voice kasi 7, 8, 8 a.m. pa lang meron kami dito workshop and talks. Puro mga kera, conflicts, disarmament, kung ano lang pinag-usapan namin. Ulit mamaya, umaga.
18:23.0
But I was thinking about it. If you just want to know about what's the latest thing that happened in Philippine politics, marites, etc. Ay sa kanina may mga nagsabi naman, nagmamarites ka. Ito yung mga syunga na hindi nila alam saan galing mga, where is all of this coming from. That you can get it out there. You can watch other people, whatever.
18:45.0
But now, you know, when I analyze things, I'm looking at almost the Hegelian dialectics. I'm looking at the Geist, you know, the spirit driving history, right? You have to operate at that level because if you don't operate at that level, mga kamay-eta, you will be a hostage to presentism. And what is presentism?
19:06.0
That the excitement or the sorrows of the moment will blind you to the possibilities of the future and even the chance to change what the past means for us. As simple as that. On that note, thank you very much. Maraming salamat. I know medyo tumagal-tagal ito. Siguro i-break down nalang natin into two parts. Nakalampas na tayo sa isang oras. I'll try to break this down into two parts.
19:30.0
Now, this is very important. I just felt we need to have the kind of honest conversation about this. And kind of deep, deep, really deep conversation about this. So please don't try to compare me to other people. Other people do their own thing. I do it my way. I do it completely my way. And I don't just blog and talk on TV, whatever. I write these things down. I write these things down. I think about these things day and night. Really look at different angles.
19:58.0
Compare the situation in the Philippines to 10, 12, 13, 15 other countries that I kind of know about. Philippines is not the only country I'm familiar with. I can confidently say I'm familiar with 3, 4, 5 different countries. Their politics, their history, etc. Not just China, just US, etc.
20:18.0
And based on that, we make this kind of analysis. See, no notes, nothing. This is just natural. Alright? Okay. Thank you very much. God bless and talk to you soon. Actually, I'm thinking how to write this down. I think I have to be able to write this down.
20:38.0
Yeah, I have to make it. But yeah, I mean, I'm working already on a book, another book. So we have to do this deep thinking. Those who are watching us, especially those who are watching our Nexus episodes with Lele Claudio. Derek, I can really see you. We spend a lot of time really thinking this through. Alright? God bless, talk to you and have a good day. Thank you very much. Long live the Philippines.
21:06.0
And to the fathers out there, don't get mad. I mean, if you're a father, you also, you know, whatever. On that note, thank you very much. God bless. Have a good day.
