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From the Polar Universe, malapit ng mga polar birds dito. Ayan kakaland lang natin dito sa Greenland. So far naman hindi ganyan ka-green more like white land pero hopefully maaaralan namin.

So as you can imagine medyo wasak tayo sa mga timezone differences. Ayokong gising pa yung mga kameta natin dyan. Anong oras na ba sa Pilipinas? Mag-11pm na yata.

So siguro yung mga kameta natin ng abay sa Europe. Sa America medyo malapit na sa timezone natin. So I think I'm 4 hours to 5 hours different from Europe timezone. Around 7 to 8 hours from the Middle East and 2 hours from New York and Washington DC.

Ito kagabi. Iba talaga pag kaibigan ka ni Ronald Llamas. Kahit anong oras makulit ka pa rin. So kagabi ito ito ito. Tingnan natin mga kameta ito mga tweets ng isa sa mga leading political analyst in the history of the Philippine Republic.

Ito si ma'am. Itong isang kaibigan natin na columnist sa Manila Times. Shout out naman dyan sa Manila Times. Isang strategist, isang author, isang ano.

In fairness naman, maganda yung mga pinost niya dito sa conflict ngayon sa Middle East. Gusto ko yung mga ganun. In fairness naman, balanced naman yung viewing na dito. Appreciate ko e. Ito kasi mga kameta, ito yung issue natin ngayon.

So dahil medyo mag-implode na yata yung Uniteam. Nagpa-panic mode na yata yung mga ibang kasama natin. So mukhang ano-ano sinasabi dyan.

I think Ronald Diamas, yung kanyang idea na itong Tambalos Lost episode will get out of control. I think he has been closer to how things are turning out than me. Kasi ako, ang analysis ko, 2021 pa lang nagsulat na tayo ng House of Duterte versus House of Marcos.

So hindi naman tayo nag-iabang pero siguro practically first person tayo nagsulat noon pa lang, before elections pa lang. I was looking at the competition but I was always erring on the side of caution na at the end of the day, if the left and progressives are brought together by the sheer power of their ideas or sheer power of their non-ideas sometimes,

what brings the conservatives and right-wing people together is the sheer importance of their interests. In this case, obviously pag tinignan mong Uniteam, yung interests nila completely nag-align noong elections 2022 particularly in favor of the Marcoses because obviously I think Duterte wanted to have it their way.

But sa sobrang sabog ng strategy ni Tatay Digong. Dito mo maisip na sobrang mahina sa politics si Tatay Digong. Nakachamba lang sila noong 2016. In fairness sa kanya, as a president he has been very good in what I call performative governance or populism.

So, ito lang yung solid south na isaan ng solid north. Now, noong elections 2022, they had all the reasons to be together because that essentially boxed out the opposition and made it close to impossible for Leni to gain the momentum.

So, solid is south and solid is north. Honestly, if you look at the lot of numbers and data, the vismin vote for the Dutertes, so-called solid south, I don't think that's a myth. I think that's quite solid. Yung kay BBM naman, in fairness to solid north has consistently delivered for them throughout the decades, even at the height of their weakness.

So, I won't underestimate yung combined force nila. Nevertheless, sabi ko, ang magiging problema naman ni BBM noon is there will be the weaker element in the ruling coalition unless BBM makes some big moves.

So, hindi niya binigay yung Department of National Defense kay Sarah at yung mga key cabinet positions ay lahat na punta dun sa mga either more traditional na mag-isip or yung mapagkatiwalaan ni BBM. So, noon palang nakita natin mga kameta na the Marcoses are smart. They know their stuff and wag mo yung underestimate si BBM.

Nevertheless, of course, nagkaroon ng problema yung administration of BBM. I think many, including BBM and folks, did not foresee yung implosion nangyari sa kanyang cabinet, yung sila, ano, yung amang nila, Maharlika, kilala nila sinya yan, yung datang barangay chairman na biglang naging spokesman, biglang naging executive ng chief of staff.

I think if you look at the purge now, because I'm already looking at writing a book on this na. So, if you look at it, I think the purge was somehow inevitable because there was a stigma in terms of working. I don't think Marco Jr. could really count on the best and brightest to work for him. So, he had to just do with what he had.

For certain reasons, largely thanks to Digong, the team that he had worked for him literally and figuratively noong 2022 elections. But I don't think that team was up to the task once the presidency came in. Parating may expression sa politika na you win elections with poetry but you govern with prose.

So pagdating sa quote-unquote poetry, I think alam niyo na sino tinutukoy natin. Yung isa in charge sa communications, yung isa in charge sa speeches niya, yung isa in charge sa kanyang, I don't know, the whole performative, nostalgic, bla bla bla ni Marcos. Okay yung team niya for elections but once actual governance came in and once na-realize ni BBM na mahirap maging presidente ng Pilipinas.

I think that's where parang para sa akin na inevitable na matatanggal yung mga, let's be nice, questionable people na helpful sa kanya noong elections and throughout the years, even yung years na kinikwestion yung mandato ni Lenny, all of those, let's just say, basket of questionable people, let's just put it that way, or not necessarily the best and brightest.

So I think what happened with BBM was two things. On one hand, he had to emphasize na Marcos is now back in power and they're going to be the dominant force in the ruling coalition sa unity. Kasi okay may unity ka pero sino ang dominant. So I think yun ang in-establish ni Marcos.

But the moment na yung America, the moment na yung mga Western countries, the moment na yung mga ibang quote unquote dilawan ay biglang mabait na kay BBM, kung ikaw ay si BBM, biglang mag-iisip ka parang wait lang, kung gusto ko i-rehabilitate yung pangalan ng pamilya ko ng 100%, if I want to make life easier for Sandra and the next generation,

bakit ako mag-stick dito sa mga, let's just say, level B na mga tao na sila na lang kasi makasaan ko all those years na medyo outsider kami, may stigma. Ngayon-ngayon wala na yung stigma eh. Si Biden, si Kamala Harris, si Anthony Blinken, si Ursula von der Leyen, si Prime Minister Kishida, I can go on and on. All of these world leaders, me tingin paying attention to yung World Economic Forum.

Malapit na rin natin ako mag-circumnavigate ng Earth. Anyway, sa yung kanyang Magellan Jr. creeps, I think made him realize parang wait lang, maybe I can actually bring in pretty high level people. At alam natin na maraming nagtatrabaho sa administration ni BBM ay actually associated sa yellow to be honest.

And I think that's the context in which you have to understand na bakit seriously pinag-usapan yung potential appointment ni Mario Haas, even Kiko Pangilinan for that matter. At least yung idea na Kiko Pangilinan being appointed was not totally crazy.

So what I'm saying there, kung ikaw si BBM, talagang two things were almost inevitable. Almost. Kasi I still believe in contingency in history. I still believe that nothing is perfectly set in stone. But two things were inevitable.

One of the brightest ay biglang naging bukas na kay BBM dahil nga nakita nila lahat ng mga Western countries ay tuwantuwa kay BBM dahil hindi siya digong. By default, naging favorite siya. And BBM also was very open to being more friendly, open to the international community, especially the West na obviously alam nyo may mga conspiracy about that.

Huwag na tayo mag-Cayman Islands. Now, so for me, a sort of internal purge and reconfiguration was almost unavoidable. In fact, I would say that even the shake-up and the reconfiguration sa military, yung defense minister all the way to…

Well, defense minister kasi, alam naman namin si Gibo talagang gusto niya noon pa lang. So inevitable din na magkaroon changes sa defense minister, defense secretary, DND secretary. Tsaka dun sa military naman, clean up. Ang version na binigay sa akin ng mga contacts ko ng pretty high-level people is huwag nyo sisihin si BBM, inaayos lang yung mga kalokanan na ginawa, yung isa na purge, and let's not get too deep into it.

Medyo mahabang usapan yan. Mahirap na pag-usapan on a live vlog. I'd rather write about it properly with proper attributions and proper quotations and all. It's a pretty sensitive issue. So for me, inevitable yan. Almost inevitable yan.

And then for me, almost inevitable din yung fallout with the Duterte's. But nevertheless, I presume that the speed and velocity will be asymmetrical. Meaning, the openness of BBM to bring in more, let's say, opposition-affiliated, more mainstream, more, okay, let's just use this term, blue-chip people in, right?

So, feeling ko etong velocity na ito sa aking palagay ay mas mabilis dito sa kabila. Because dito sa kabila, 2028 yung marker. Habang dito sa kabila naman, BBM has to get the best team he can get as soon as possible. Lalo lalo na nakita natin sa mga surveys na hindi pala siya Teflon effect. He's very vulnerable to major reversals in his popularity.

And to have an approval rating of just over 60%, and to have approval ratings of double digit lower than Pinoy and Digong at this point in their presidency, that's quite troubling. So kung ikaw si BBM, you accelerate the velocity of internal reconfiguration and getting people from even Dilawan, Pinklawan, whatever you want to call them, right? What is the non-pejorative? Blue-chip people, let's just call it this way. People na talaga may pinag-aralan, may makayalam sa buhay. So I thought that velocity will be faster than the velocity of fallout with Duterte's.

But it looks like the velocity of fallout with the Duterte's, parang mas mabilis na bigla dun sa kabila. So this is where I think Ronald Tiamas, his, shall I say it, his excitement was probably more credible than I thought.

Because ako, I was thinking, this velocity will be slower than this. Precisely because both BBM and Sara have an interest in not having a total fallout. Siguro, ano lang sila, mag cool off lang sila siguro, yung mga ganyan. Pero yung total break, ganoon. But I was thinking, both of them have a reason not to do that because each side has an interest.

BBM has an interest of making sure he doesn't create a new front. And knowing na conflict avoidance in BBM, na he's more of a study in certitude and moderation, if I can use it in a much more kind of British literary terms. He's a study in certitude and moderation, right?

For someone as prudential as BBM, he has no reason to pick direct fight with Duterte's. And if you're Sara, you also do not want to fight the dominant section of the ruling coalition because you want things to be more or less stable and steady as you prepare for your run in 2028.

And the fact that Sara was considered as a frontrunner for the 2028 elections, she has every reason to play it slow, play it safe, play it nice, etc. I think what really became the problem here is Digong. Because as soon as BBM became much more open to moderate his policy and distance himself from Digong's legacy, meaning less of all of this crazy bara-bara drug policy, less of all of this crazy bara-bara retaliation,

this would be another reminder, do not underestimate the dominant faction, which is the Marcos Ramaldez in the ruling coalition, in the unity ruling coalition. And after the demotion of Arroyo, I think this is where nakita mo Sara was, I don't want to use the word deracinated, but I think she did not appreciate how the balance of forces has already changed.

So what happened there is, ayan, nangyara the whole tambalos loss attacks and all of that. And then siguro akala nila ng mga Dutertes, they can just paper over it and Dutertes said it'll be fine, except the fault lines were just about to get worse.

Nakita natin na culminate lahat ng ito. So interesting, issue ng China nadikit dito sa issue ng confidential funds and then boom, puya ka siya, natanggalan ng confidential funds. And a part of me feels, kung ikaw si Digong, yun yung last straw.

And we have seen over the past two weeks, mga kameta, since natanggalan ng confidential funds yung pangalawang pangulo ng ating bansa, diba yun ang tawag natin sa bisipresidente, pangalawang pangulo or whatever, eto na nagwaawala na si Digong.

Ang problema naman kasi dito is, ang leverage dito is clearly with the Marcos Romualdo faction. So now suddenly you're hearing this possibility na baka itong ICC po, itong ICC po ay biglang, ay, welcome na po kayo dito sa Pilipinas po, sir, mga ganyan.

Sorry replying ko lang ito. Yes please. Okay one second. Replying ko itong kaibigan ko. Okay mga one second lang.

Replying ko ito kasi I'm trying to arrange some stuff with folks in Stanford. Kasi paiba-iba yung time zones and all. I'm trying to recalculate yung time and all. Anyway balikan natin.

Dahil nag-miscalculate yung semi-has-been powers, eto na nangyayari ngayon. So suddenly now may interest ang iba't ibang grupo na suportahan si BBM.

So now days of ICC is also important because kung ikaw ang western partners ni BBM, siyempre gusto mo naman, pakita mo na we have positive influence on the Marcos administration to move in the right direction, bla bla bla.

So now we can file an additional arbitration case against China to build on. Oh by the way happy birthday kay Justice Carpio. So katulad ng interview natin ni Justice Carpio, pinag-usapan natin na we can look at another arbitration case whereby we seek for damages per the relevant provisions of UNCLOS and also building on sa arbitration award natin sa 2016.

So we had someone like Rojas, Mar Rojas or Grace Bowen back in 2016, not a digong, pro-China guy. So anyway, so parang weird ngayon kung anti-ICC ka tapos biglang hihigan ng tulong sa international, I mean of course they're not the same.

Iba yung ICC, iba yung UNCLOS. But the whole idea of the Philippines relying on international rule of law to defend its sovereign rights and then the Philippines not being open to international institutions when it comes to human rights issues, given that the Philippines was a party to the Rome Statute and was part of the ICC for quite some time.

Medyo malabo yan. If you want the help of the international community, international law, you cannot pick and choose all the time. I mean of course you can do that sometimes, you can try to do it, but parang weird. So actually it also makes sense for the Philippines to say that no, no actually we're a country that is a country of rule of law or we have problems and we're open to international institutions helping us.

So ICC can help us with human rights and hopefully UNCLOS, hindi pwede ICJ kasi may mutual consent yan. But other international arbitration bodies can help us naman sa West Philippines. So parang yun yung idea. Nakikita niyo ba yan?

Maraming tao matutuwa dito kung natuloy itong ICC. Matuwa yung mga western allies. Matuwa rin yung mga tao na nagsastrategize dito sa next move natin sa West Philippine Sea. And then matuwa rin yung mga progresivo at saka mga tao na may pakis sa buhay ng tao. Yung mga ayaw sa barang-barang drug war. Lahat naman tayo galit sa madroga.

Lahat naman tayo galit sa… By the way, anong update sa Asian Games? Anti-doping case na yan. Umami na tayo maghilas. But you get what I'm saying. So there are many constituencies for this whole ICC thing.

So now you also have the Catholic Church hierarchy coming in and becoming constituency for the ICC. So insofar as this process seeks to ferry out the truth and possibly to hold accountable those who in arrogant abuse of power, I'm quoting Archbishop Villegas, may have caused others, even possibly innocent people, loss of life in violation of guarantees enshrined in the Philippine Constitution as well as in human rights treaties to which the Philippines is a part, well, was a part.

Kasi malis na tayo thanks to Harry Roque.

So I think that's his term for mass atrocities. Essentially ang sinasabing ni Archbishop Villegas is kung wala naman tayong problema, wala naman tayong nagawang mali, baka tayo mahiya na pa-open tayo sa investigation.

So remember yung sinasabing natin, this is the problem I have. Violence and war is almost inevitable in human life. But you cannot just keep on trying to justify violence by saying, ah kasi nanglaban, ah kasi ginamit sila bilang human shield ng ganitong terrorist group. Yung mga ganyan style, if you allow that to pass, then anything can be justified.

Then you can go on killing as many people as you can and just keep on saying, eh kasi ginamit silang human shield, eh kasi nanglaban. But how do we really know if that's really the case? How do we really know na collateral damage lang talaga sila or something more sinister was going on?

So kung wala naman talagang mali nangyari, edi-open natin, buksan natin sa investigators. So yun po yung sinasabing ni Archbishop Villegas. So now if you're Marcos Jr., you have the house leadership, you have people within your cabinet, you have people from outside, you have the Catholic Church, a lot of these people saying, sir kung may problema sa mga Duterte wag kang magalala, may mga makaibigan tayo diyan.

So not only are key Western powers aligning behind BBM because of the China angle, but you also have the international community and a lot of people who are more than eager to see the Philippines moving in the right direction in terms of human rights. Kasi let's be honest, almost second year na naming BBM, wala parin significant improvements to human rights.

Well, the EJKs are not as bad as before, but it's not like we're moving towards really country of rule of law yet, right? So Marcos Jr. has to show a good governance reform and this ICC issue can hit many. It's like one stone that hits 10 birds, right? And it's a one stone that was put together by six, seven different constituencies.

So this is the interesting thing that is happening. This asymmetrical velocity that is kind of moving much faster than at least I anticipated. We can see na yung mga mistakes ni Digong noong 2021, which led to Marcos is coming back instead of another Duterte being in power, that continuing. So mukhang hindi na tututo si tatay sa mga kanyang mistakes.

Sino ba kasi ang advisor ni Digong? Kanina kasi siya nakikinig diba? Ayan. So anyway, so this is the overall alignment, misalignment, interesting things that we're looking at. Hopefully, once we have time to coordinate this with parang R&R, Ronald Diamas, tuloy-tuloy natin itong machismi na ito.

On that note, thank you very much mga kameta at saka yung mga, ayan na, sabi noong isa, both SARA and TULF are like Norwegian Airlines. Oy, wag naman kayo ganyan. Dami yung mga kameta natin na mailik sa Norwegian Airlines. Ganito na lang, kung ang standard mo sa buhay po ay Ryanair, siguro naman maganda yung Norwegian Airlines. Pero sana next time, mag-royal Norwegian Airlines.

So on that note, thank you very much. Pasensya na, kailangan natin lumabas. Ayan na, naglaglagal. Yung advisor ni Digong, e diba na-ban na to sa Youtube? Na-ban na yung mga to sa Facebook. Anyway, o baka nga yung mga taga-SMN na nag-advise sa kanya, sir naman, sir naman, with all the power and popularity you had, this was not inevitable.

So sa tingin ko, mas inevitable yung track A na mentioned ko, yung internal cleanup and all. Pero yung track B, that's more own goal talaga. More accelerated by own goal. So both of them had semi-inevitability to them but there's a lot of own goal happening dito sa isang track B na pinag-usapan natin. I like this framework. This is a good way of looking at it.

So yun, kahit ganito yung mga leaders na in fairness, we're moving in some right direction. And please continue to support us kahit medyo, wala na, yan yung itura natin. Alright, on that note, enjoyin ko muna itong sunlight dito. At iabol natin yung mga check-in natin and all of that. Thank you very much mga Kameta. God bless and talk to you soon.

Thank you very much.