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SARA NO MORE??? TULFO NA BA FOR 2028!???
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Richard Heydarian VLOGS
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Run time: 28:52
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00:00.0
Ayan na! Ayan na mga kameta! Joining you from the polar universe!
00:17.5
Malapit ng mga polar bears dito.
00:20.2
Ayan kakaland lang natin dito sa Greenland.
00:24.5
So far naman hindi ganyan ka green more like white land.
00:29.2
Hopefully, check natin mamaya.
00:32.7
So as you can imagine, medyo wassak tayo sa mga time zone differences.
00:39.7
I hope gising ba yung mga kameta natin dyan.
00:42.7
Anong oras na ba sa Pilipinas ngayon? Mag 11pm na yata.
00:45.7
Anyway, balikan natin ito kasi ito na naman.
00:50.7
Ikaw kasi mahirap sa difference ng time zones.
00:56.7
Kasi yung virality. May mga window yan. May mga oras yan.
01:00.7
But at least siguro yung mga kameta natin na based sa Europe at saka sa America,
01:05.7
medyo malapit na sa time zones natin.
01:07.2
So I think I'm 4 hours to 5 hours different from Europe time zone.
01:11.2
Around 7 to 8 hours from the Middle East.
01:13.2
And 2 hours from New York and Washington DC.
01:17.2
And 6 hours from California.
01:22.2
And around 8 to 9 hours from Hawaii, Guam.
01:25.2
So 10 hours Pilipinas.
01:26.7
Okay, so ito pa yung medyo breakdown natin ngayon mga kameta.
01:30.7
Kamusta kayo dyan? Kamusta kayo dyan?
01:35.7
Pilipinas, Pilipinas.
01:38.7
Oops! Bakit na wala ito? Wait lang. Inaayos ko ito sa kabla.
01:42.2
Wait lang. Inaayos ko lang ito mga kameta.
01:45.2
Yan ang mahirap pag sa mga time zone difference.
01:48.2
Biglang mga email sa'yo.
01:56.2
Okay. Iaayosin ko lang ito mga kamets.
02:01.2
Okay.
02:03.2
Okay.
02:05.2
Okay.
02:07.2
Okay.
02:09.2
Okay.
02:10.7
Oh my goodness.
02:12.7
Ayan, ito dito. Okay, okay, okay.
02:14.7
Second lang.
02:16.7
Ito, kagabi.
02:18.7
Ito talaga eh.
02:20.7
Iba talaga pag ano eh.
02:22.7
Pagkaibigan ka ni Ronald Llamas.
02:25.7
Kahit anong oras, makulit ka pa rin.
02:28.7
So kagabi, ito ito ito. Tingnan natin mga kameta.
02:31.7
Ito ang mga tweets ng isa sa mga leading political analyst
02:35.7
in the history of the Philippine Republic.
02:39.2
Ano?
02:40.2
Hindi, ito ito ito.
02:42.2
Ito si ma'am.
02:44.2
Itong isang kaibigan natin na columnist
02:47.2
sa Manila Times.
02:49.2
Yan. Shout out naman dyan sa Manila Times.
02:53.2
Isang strategist, isang author, isang ano.
02:57.2
In fairness naman, maganda yung mga pinost niya dito sa
03:01.2
sa conflict ngayon sa Middle East. Gusto ko yung mga ganun.
03:04.2
In fairness naman, balanced naman yung view niya dito.
03:07.2
Appreciate ko eh.
03:08.2
Ito kasi mga kameta, ito yung issue natin ngayon.
03:12.2
So, dahil medyo mag-e-explode, hindi na ma-e-explode,
03:18.2
implode pala. Mag-e-implode na yata yung Uniteam.
03:21.2
Nagpa-panic mode na yata yung mga ibang kasama natin.
03:26.2
So kung ano-ano lang sinasabi dyan.
03:28.7
No, obviously, mga kameta,
03:32.2
mukhang three things are
03:36.2
a big, big, almost irreconcilable problem right now.
03:41.2
To be honest,
03:43.2
I think Ronald Llamas,
03:46.2
yung kanyang idea na itong Tambalas Los Episode will get out of control,
03:51.2
I think he has been closer to how things are turning out than me.
03:55.2
Kasi ako, ang analysis ko is,
03:57.2
naku, 2021 pa lang nagsulat na tayo ng House of Duterte versus House of Marcos.
04:03.2
Hindi naman tayo nag-iabang pero siguro practically first person tayo nagsulat ng noon pa lang,
04:08.2
before elections pa lang.
04:09.2
I was looking at the competition.
04:10.2
But, I was always erring on the side of caution na
04:16.2
at the end of the day,
04:18.2
if the left and progressives are brought together
04:21.2
by the sheer power of their ideas,
04:24.2
or sheer power of their non-ideas sometimes,
04:27.2
what brings the conservatives and right-wing people together
04:31.2
is the sheer importance of their interests.
04:34.2
And in this case, obviously,
04:36.2
pag tinignan mong UNITEAM,
04:38.2
yung interests nila completely nag-align
04:41.2
noong elections 2022,
04:42.2
particularly in favor of the Marcoses
04:44.2
because obviously, I think, Dutertes wanted to have it their way.
04:47.2
But sa sobrang sabog ng strategy ni Tatay Digong,
04:50.2
I mean, dito mo may isip na sobrang mahina talaga sa politics ito si Tatay Digong.
04:54.2
Nakachamba lang sila noong 2016.
04:57.2
And in fairness naman sa kanya,
04:58.2
as a president, he has been very good in what I call
05:01.2
as performative governance or populism.
05:03.2
But, the problem is, kitang-kita natin,
05:05.2
2020-2021 pa lang,
05:07.2
nagkakalat na,
05:09.2
hindi na na-engineer noong transition
05:11.2
to yung kanya preferred successor.
05:14.2
So, that's where naisaan sila ng mga kapsat natin.
05:18.2
Jan, from the North!
05:19.2
Tuloy, solid South, naisaan ng solid North.
05:22.2
Now, noong elections 2022,
05:24.2
they had all the reasons to be together
05:26.2
because that essentially boxed out the opposition
05:29.2
and made it close to impossible
05:31.2
for Lenny to gain the momentum.
05:33.2
Sabi ko yung vote ni Lenny,
05:34.2
at least the official numbers of 15 million plus,
05:37.2
that's pretty respectable considering what they were facing,
05:40.2
which is the combined forces of solid South and solid North.
05:44.2
Now, how solid is South and how solid is North?
05:47.2
Honestly, if you look at a lot of numbers and data,
05:51.2
the Vismin vote for the Dutertes,
05:53.2
so-called solid South,
05:55.2
I don't think that's a myth.
05:56.2
I think that's quite solid.
05:58.2
Yung kay BBM naman,
06:01.2
in fairness to solid North,
06:02.2
has consistently delivered for them throughout the decades,
06:05.2
even at the height of their weakness.
06:09.2
So, I won't underestimate yung combined force nila.
06:11.2
Nevertheless, sabi ko,
06:14.2
ang magiging problema naman ng BBM noon is
06:17.2
they will be the weaker element in the ruling coalition
06:20.2
unless BBM makes some big moves.
06:23.2
And immediately nakita natin, mga kameta,
06:25.2
48 hours into Marcos Jr.'s election,
06:32.2
nalaman na natin na Marcos Jr. is gonna assert yung kanilang position
06:37.2
because now, siya yung presidente.
06:40.2
Iba pa rin yung presidente.
06:43.2
So, hindi niya binigay yung Department of National Defense kay Sarah
06:46.2
at yung mga key cabinet positions
06:48.2
ay lahat na punta doon sa mga
06:50.2
either more traditional mag-isip
06:52.2
or yung mapagkatiwalaan ni BBM.
06:56.2
So, noon pa lang nakita natin, mga kameta,
06:58.2
na the Marcoses are smart.
07:02.2
They know their stuff.
07:03.2
And wag mo yung underestimate si BBM.
07:05.2
Nevertheless, of course, nakaroon ng problema
07:08.2
yung administration ng BBM.
07:09.2
I think many, including BBM and folks,
07:11.2
did not foresee yung implosion na ngyari sa kanyang cabinet,
07:15.2
yung sila, ano,
07:17.2
yung amo nila, Maharlika.
07:18.2
Kilala nila sino yan.
07:20.2
Yung dati ng barangay chairman na biglang naging spokesman,
07:23.2
biglang naging executive ng chief of staff,
07:27.2
singini na wala na, natanggal sila.
07:30.2
Yung purge na nangyari,
07:32.2
I think that if you look at the purge, no,
07:34.2
because I'm already looking at writing a book on this na, so,
07:37.2
if you look at it, I think the purge was somehow inevitable
07:41.2
because the reality is that
07:42.2
before naging presidente si Marcos Jr.,
07:45.2
there was a stigma in terms of working for Marcos Jr.
07:49.2
So, I don't think Marcos Jr. could really count on the best of the best
07:53.2
and best and brightest to work for him.
07:55.2
So, he had to just do with what he had.
07:57.2
For certain reasons, largely thanks to Digong,
08:02.2
the team that he had worked for him
08:06.2
literally and figuratively nung 2022 elections.
08:10.2
But I don't think that team was up to the task
08:13.2
once the presidency came in.
08:15.2
Parate, may expression sa politika na
08:18.2
you win elections with poetry,
08:20.2
but you govern with prose.
08:22.2
So, pagdating sa quote-unquote poetry,
08:24.2
I think, alam nyo na sino yung tinutukoy natin.
08:27.2
Yung isa in charge sa communications,
08:29.2
yung isa in charge sa speeches niya,
08:31.2
yung isa in charge sa kanyang, I don't know,
08:34.2
the whole performative, nostalgic, blah, blah, blah,
08:39.2
ni Marcos.
08:40.2
Okay yung team niya for elections,
08:42.2
but once actual governance came in
08:45.2
and once na na-realize ni BBM na,
08:47.2
naku, mahirap maging presidente ng Pilipinas,
08:50.2
I think that's where, parang para sa akin na,
08:53.2
inevitable na matatanggal yung mga,
08:55.2
let's be nice, questionable people
08:59.2
na helpful sa kanya nung elections
09:01.2
and throughout the years,
09:03.2
even yung years na kinikwestion yung mandato ni Lenny,
09:06.2
all of those, let's just say,
09:08.2
basket of questionable people,
09:11.2
let's just put it that way,
09:13.2
or not necessarily the best and brightest.
09:16.2
So, I think what happened with BBM was two things.
09:20.2
On one hand, he had to emphasize na
09:23.2
Marcos' now are back in power
09:25.2
and they're gonna be the dominant force
09:27.2
in the ruling coalition sa unity.
09:28.2
Kasi, okay, may unity ka,
09:30.2
pero sino ang dominant, diba?
09:33.2
So I think yun ang in-establish ni Marcos.
09:35.2
But, the moment na yung America,
09:38.2
the moment na yung mga Western countries,
09:41.2
the moment na yung mga ibang quote-unquote dilawan
09:43.2
ay biglang mabait na kay BBM,
09:46.2
kung ikaw ay si BBM, biglang mag-iisip ka,
09:48.2
parang, wait lang,
09:50.2
kung gusto ko i-rehabilitate yung
09:52.2
pangalan ng pamilya ko na 100%,
09:54.2
if I wanna make life easier for Sandra and the next generation,
09:58.2
bakit ako mag-stick dito sa mga,
10:00.2
etong mga, let's just say, level B na mga tao na
10:04.2
sila na lang kasi yung,
10:05.2
ano ko eh, makasaan ko all those years
10:07.2
na medyo outsider kami, may stigma.
10:09.2
At ngayon, wala na yung stigma eh.
10:10.2
Si Biden, si Kamala Harris, si Anthony Blinken,
10:15.2
si Ursula von der Leyen, si Prime Minister Kishida.
10:19.2
I can go on and on.
10:20.2
All of these world leaders meeting him,
10:21.2
paying attention to the World Economic Forum.
10:25.2
O, diba?
10:26.2
Malapit na rin natin ako mag-circumnavigate ng Earth.
10:29.2
Anyway, so yung kanyang Magellan Jr. trips,
10:32.2
I think made him realize, parang, wait lang,
10:34.2
maybe I can actually bring in pretty high-level people.
10:38.2
At alam natin na maraming nagtatrabaho sa administration ng BBM
10:42.2
ay actually associated sa yellow, to be honest.
10:46.2
And I think that's the context in which you have to understand
10:49.2
na bakit seriously pinag-usapan yung potential appointment
10:52.2
ni Mua Rojas, even Kiko Pangilinan, for that matter.
10:56.2
At least yung idea na Kiko Pangilinan being appointed
10:59.2
was not totally crazy.
11:01.2
So, what I'm saying there is,
11:03.2
kung ikaw si BBM,
11:06.2
talagang two things were almost inevitable.
11:08.2
Almost.
11:09.2
Kasi I still believe in contingency in history.
11:11.2
I still believe that nothing is perfectly set in stone.
11:14.2
But two things were inevitable.
11:15.2
One is,
11:17.2
BBM is gonna slowly shed
11:20.2
itong mga Team B,
11:22.2
ito na,
11:23.2
Team B
11:24.2
na yun lang ma-afford niya makuha
11:26.2
dati, nung bago siya naging presidente.
11:29.2
Because yung mga best and brightest
11:31.2
ay biglang naging bukas na kay BBM
11:33.2
dahil nga nakita nila yung lahat ng mga Western countries
11:35.2
ay tumantua kay BBM dahil hindi siya digong.
11:38.2
By default, naging favorite siya.
11:40.2
Diba?
11:41.2
And BBM also was very open
11:43.2
to being more friendly, open to the international community,
11:46.2
especially the West.
11:47.2
Now, obviously, alam niyo, may mga conspiracy about that.
11:49.2
Okay.
11:50.2
Huwag na tayo mag-Cayman Islands.
11:53.2
Now, so, for me,
11:54.2
a sort of internal purge
11:56.2
and reconfiguration
11:58.2
was almost unavoidable.
12:01.2
In fact, I would say that
12:02.2
even the shake-up
12:03.2
and the reconfiguration sa military,
12:05.2
yung defense minister all the way to...
12:09.2
Well, defense minister kasi
12:10.2
alam naman namin si Gibo talagang gusto niya
12:12.2
noon pa lang.
12:13.2
Right?
12:14.2
So, inevitable din magkaroon ng changes sa defense minister,
12:17.2
defense secretary, DND secretary.
12:19.2
Tsaka dun sa military naman,
12:21.2
clean up.
12:22.2
Ang version na binigay sa akin ng mga contacts ko
12:24.2
na pretty high-level people
12:26.2
is,
12:27.2
huwag niyo sisihin si BBM.
12:28.2
Inaayos lang yung mga kalukanan na ginawa
12:30.2
ng mga...
12:31.2
yung mga isa na purge.
12:33.2
And let's not get too deep into it.
12:35.2
Alright?
12:36.2
Medyo mahabang usapan yun eh.
12:38.2
Mahirap na pag-usapan
12:39.2
on a live vlog.
12:40.2
I'd rather write about it properly
12:42.2
with proper attributions
12:43.2
and proper quotations and all.
12:45.2
It's a pretty sensitive issue.
12:47.2
So, for me, inevitable yun.
12:49.2
Almost inevitable yun.
12:51.2
And then, for me,
12:52.2
almost inevitable din
12:54.2
yung fallout
12:55.2
with the Dutertes.
12:56.2
But,
12:57.2
nevertheless,
12:58.2
I presume that the speed and velocity
13:01.2
will be asymmetrical.
13:03.2
Meaning,
13:04.2
the openness of BBM
13:05.2
to bring in more,
13:07.2
let's say,
13:09.2
opposition-affiliated,
13:11.2
more mainstream,
13:12.2
more,
13:13.2
okay, let's just use this term,
13:14.2
blue-chip people in.
13:16.2
Right?
13:18.2
Feeling ko,
13:19.2
etong velocity nito,
13:20.2
sa aking palagay,
13:21.2
mas mabilis dito sa kabila.
13:23.2
Because dito sa kabila,
13:25.2
2028,
13:27.2
yung marker.
13:28.2
Right?
13:29.2
Habang dito sa kabila naman,
13:31.2
well, BBM has to get the best team he can get
13:33.2
as soon as possible.
13:35.2
Lalong-lalong na nakikita natin sa mga surveys
13:37.2
na hindi pala siya Teflon Effect.
13:38.2
That he's very vulnerable, actually,
13:40.2
to major reversals in his popularity.
13:42.2
For someone who won 60% of the votes,
13:45.2
right?
13:46.2
For someone who won 60% of the votes,
13:47.2
to have an approval rating of just over 60%,
13:50.2
and to have approval ratings
13:51.2
of double-digit lower than Pinoy and Digong
13:53.2
at this point in their presidency,
13:55.2
that's quite troubling.
13:56.2
So kung ikaw si BBM,
13:57.2
you accelerate the velocity
13:59.2
of internal reconfiguration
14:00.2
and getting people from even Dilawan, Pinklawan,
14:03.2
whatever you want to call them.
14:04.2
Right?
14:05.2
What's the non-pejorative?
14:06.2
Blue-chip people.
14:07.2
Let's just call it this way.
14:08.2
People na talaga may pinag-aralan,
14:09.2
may mga yang alam sa buhay.
14:11.2
You know, medyo...
14:12.2
Ano?
14:13.2
So I thought that velocity will be faster
14:14.2
than the velocity of fallout with Duterte's.
14:17.2
But it looks like the velocity of fallout
14:20.2
with the Duterte's,
14:21.2
parang mas mabilis na bigla
14:23.2
dun sa kabila.
14:24.2
So this is...
14:25.2
This is where I think Ronald Diamas,
14:27.2
his...
14:31.2
Shall I say it?
14:32.2
His excitement was probably
14:35.2
more credible than I thought.
14:38.2
Kasi ako, I was thinking,
14:39.2
this velocity will be slower than this.
14:41.2
Precisely because both BBM and Sara
14:44.2
have an interest in not having a total fallout.
14:48.2
Siguro, ano lang sila,
14:49.2
mag cool-off lang sila.
14:52.2
Siguro, yung mga ganyan.
14:54.2
Pero yung total break, ganoon?
14:56.2
But I was thinking,
14:57.2
both of them have a reason not to do that
14:59.2
because each side has an interest.
15:02.2
BBM has an interest of making sure
15:03.2
he doesn't create a new front.
15:06.2
And knowing na conflict avoidance si BBM,
15:09.2
na he's more of a study in certitude
15:13.2
and moderation,
15:14.2
if I can use it in a much more
15:16.2
kind of British literary terms.
15:18.2
He's a study in certitude and moderation, right?
15:21.2
For someone as prudential as BBM,
15:25.2
he has no reason to pick
15:26.2
direct fight with the Territors.
15:28.2
And if you're Sara,
15:30.2
you also do not want to fight
15:32.2
the dominant section of the ruling coalition
15:36.2
because you want things to be
15:37.2
more or less stable and steady
15:39.2
as you prepare for your run in 2028.
15:42.2
And the fact that Sara was considered
15:44.2
as a frontrunner for the 2028 elections,
15:46.2
she has every reason to play it slow,
15:48.2
play it safe, play it nice, etc.
15:51.2
I think what really became the problem here
15:54.2
is Digong.
15:55.2
Because as soon as BBM became much more open
16:00.2
to moderate his policy
16:01.2
and distance himself from Digong's legacy,
16:04.2
meaning less of all of this crazy
16:07.2
bara-bara drug policy,
16:08.2
less of all of this crazy
16:09.2
bara-bara red tagging,
16:12.2
and more importantly,
16:14.2
more friendly sa US
16:16.2
and less friendly sa China,
16:18.2
boom!
16:19.2
Nagwala na si Tatay Digong.
16:21.2
And then, I think,
16:23.2
what no one anticipated
16:26.2
was yung nangyari sa Kongreso.
16:33.2
People also underestimated
16:35.2
Martin Rumaldas, right?
16:37.2
People I think also underestimated
16:38.2
Martin Rumaldas.
16:39.2
So the demotion of Arroyo
16:40.2
was already another reminder
16:43.2
that do not underestimate
16:44.2
the dominant faction,
16:46.2
which is the Marcos Rumaldas,
16:47.2
in the ruling coalition,
16:49.2
in the unity ruling coalition.
16:52.2
And after yung demotion ni Arroyo,
16:54.2
I think this is where nakita mo Sarah
16:56.2
was, I won't use the word,
16:59.2
deracinated.
17:00.2
But I think she did not appreciate
17:05.2
how the balance of forces
17:06.2
has already changed.
17:08.2
So what happened there is,
17:10.2
ayan, nangyari the whole
17:12.2
tumbalos loss attacks
17:13.2
and all of that.
17:15.2
And then siguro akala nila
17:17.2
ng mga do-terrorists,
17:18.2
they can just, you know,
17:19.2
paper over it
17:20.2
and the dust will settle,
17:21.2
be fine.
17:22.2
Except, you know,
17:23.2
the fault lines
17:25.2
were just about to get worse.
17:27.2
At nakita natin,
17:28.2
na culminate lahat ng ito.
17:31.2
So interesting,
17:32.2
issue niyang China
17:33.2
nadikit dito sa issue
17:34.2
ng confidential funds.
17:37.2
And then, boom!
17:38.2
Puya ka siya,
17:39.2
natanggalan ang confidential funds.
17:41.2
And a part of me feels,
17:43.2
kung ikaw si Digong,
17:44.2
yun yung last straw.
17:46.2
And we have seen over the past
17:48.2
two weeks, mga kameta,
17:50.2
since natanggalan
17:51.2
ang confidential funds,
17:52.2
yung pangalawang pangulo
17:53.2
ng ating bansa,
17:55.2
di ba yun ang tawag natin
17:56.2
sa vice-presidente,
17:57.2
pangalawang pangulo,
17:58.2
or whatever,
17:59.2
eto na, nagwawala
18:00.2
ng si Digong.
18:01.2
Ang problema naman kasi dito is,
18:05.2
ang leverage dito is clearly
18:06.2
with the Marcos Romualdo's faction.
18:10.2
So now suddenly,
18:11.2
you're hearing this possibility
18:12.2
na baka itong ICC po,
18:14.2
no?
18:15.2
Itong ICC po,
18:17.2
ay biglang,
18:18.2
ay!
18:19.2
Welcome na po kayo dito sa
18:21.2
sa Pilipinas.
18:23.2
Sir, mga gays.
18:40.2
Sorry, I'll just reply to this.
18:42.2
Yes, please.
18:45.2
Okay, one second.
18:46.2
I'll reply to this,
18:47.2
kaibigan ko.
18:53.2
Okay, mga one second lang.
18:59.2
Okay.
19:00.2
Ito, ito.
19:01.2
I'll reply to this
19:02.2
kasi I'm trying to arrange
19:03.2
some stuff with also folks
19:04.2
in Stanford here
19:05.2
kasi paiba-iba yung mga time zones
19:06.2
and all.
19:07.2
I'm trying to recalculate
19:08.2
yung mga time and all.
19:09.2
Okay, kaibigan natin.
19:10.2
So what's happening now
19:11.2
is suddenly itong velocity
19:12.2
ng internal configuration,
19:13.2
meaning bringing more blue chip in,
19:15.2
being friendlier to the yellows.
19:18.2
Some would even say
19:19.2
hindi lang pinks
19:20.2
but yung mga reds daw
19:21.2
malapit,
19:22.2
medyo mas friendly na
19:23.2
sa leadership ng house.
19:24.2
Mga ganyan daw.
19:26.2
Ito sa kabila rin,
19:27.2
nag-accelerate na rin dito
19:28.2
and I think this is because,
19:29.2
yun nga eh.
19:30.2
So now you have a situation
19:31.2
whereby,
19:32.2
dahil feeling ko
19:33.2
nag-miscalculate yung mga,
19:36.2
you know,
19:38.2
semi-has-been powers,
19:39.2
eto na nangyayari ngayon.
19:40.2
So suddenly now,
19:41.2
ma-interes ang iba't ibang grupo
19:44.2
na suportahan si BBM.
19:46.2
And the BBM administration right now
19:48.2
has indicated that they may be,
19:50.2
they may be open
19:52.2
to itong ICC investigation.
19:54.2
And as I said,
19:55.2
the issue of ICC is important also
19:58.2
because,
20:00.2
the issue of ICC is also important
20:02.2
because,
20:07.2
katulad na sinabi natin,
20:08.2
sorry, jetlag ng konti.
20:10.2
The reason the ICC is important
20:12.2
is also because,
20:13.2
kung ikaw ang western partners ni BBM,
20:15.2
syempre gusto mo naman diba
20:17.2
na pakita mo na
20:18.2
we have positive influence
20:19.2
on the Marcos administration
20:20.2
to move in the right direction,
20:21.2
blah, blah, blah, right?
20:23.2
Now the thing kasi with ICC
20:24.2
is that remember,
20:26.2
yung isang option na
20:27.2
kinakonsider natin ngayon
20:28.2
mga kameta is,
20:29.2
to file an additional arbitration case
20:32.2
against China
20:33.2
to build on,
20:34.2
oh by the way,
20:35.2
happy birthday kay Justice Carpio
20:36.2
kanina nag brief tayo
20:37.2
kay Justice Carpio.
20:38.2
Happy birthday kay Justice Carpio.
20:40.2
So katulad ng interview natin
20:41.2
ni Justice Carpio,
20:42.2
diba pinag-usapan natin
20:43.2
na we can look at another
20:45.2
arbitration case whereby
20:47.2
we seek for damages
20:49.2
per the relevant
20:51.2
provisions of UNCLOS
20:53.2
and also
20:54.2
building on dun sa
20:55.2
arbitration award natin
20:56.2
ng 2016.
20:57.2
Essentially we can do right now
20:59.2
what was supposed to be done
21:01.2
had someone like Rojas, Marajas
21:03.2
or Grace Bowen
21:05.2
back in 2016.
21:06.2
Not a digong,
21:07.2
a pro-China guy.
21:08.2
So, anyway.
21:09.2
So parang weird ngayon
21:10.2
na kung anti-ICC ka
21:12.2
tapos biglang hihigan ng tulong
21:13.2
sa international.
21:14.2
I mean, of course they're not the same.
21:15.2
Duh!
21:16.2
Iba yung ICC,
21:17.2
iba yung UNCLOS
21:18.2
but the whole idea of the Philippines
21:20.2
relying on international rule of law
21:23.2
to defend its sovereign rights
21:24.2
and then the Philippines
21:25.2
not being open
21:26.2
to international
21:28.2
institutions
21:29.2
when it comes to human rights issues
21:31.2
given that the Philippines
21:32.2
was a party to the Rome Statute
21:34.2
and was part of the ICC
21:36.2
for quite some time.
21:37.2
So, medyo malabo yan.
21:39.2
Diba?
21:40.2
If you want the help
21:41.2
of the international community
21:42.2
and international law,
21:43.2
you cannot pick and choose
21:45.2
all the time.
21:46.2
I mean, of course you can do that
21:47.2
sometimes.
21:48.2
You can try to do it.
21:49.2
But parang weird.
21:50.2
So actually,
21:51.2
it also makes sense for the Philippines
21:52.2
to say that
21:53.2
no, no, actually we're a country
21:54.2
that is a country of rule of law
21:56.2
or we have problems
21:57.2
and we're open to
21:58.2
international institutions
21:59.2
helping us.
22:00.2
So ICC can help us
22:01.2
with human rights
22:02.2
and hopefully,
22:03.2
on clause,
22:04.2
hindi pwede ICJ
22:05.2
kasi may mutual consent yan.
22:06.2
But,
22:07.2
other international arbitration bodies
22:09.2
can help us naman
22:10.2
sa West Philippine Sea.
22:11.2
So parang yun yung idea.
22:12.2
Nakikita niyo ba yan?
22:13.2
Maraming tao matutuwa dito
22:14.2
kung natuloy itong ICC.
22:16.2
Matuwa yung mga western allies.
22:18.2
Matuwa rin yung mga tao
22:20.2
na nagsastrategize dito
22:23.2
sa next move natin
22:24.2
sa West Philippine Sea.
22:25.2
And then matuwa rin
22:26.2
yung mga progresiwa
22:27.2
tsaka mga tao
22:28.2
na may pakay sa buhay ng tao.
22:29.2
Yung mga ayos
22:30.2
sa barang-barang drug war.
22:31.2
Lahat naman tayo galit
22:32.2
sa mga droga.
22:33.2
Lahat naman tayo galit
22:34.2
sa...
22:35.2
By the way,
22:36.2
anong update doon
22:37.2
sa Asian Games
22:38.2
anti-doping case na yan?
22:41.2
Ayun, hoy.
22:42.2
Mamili, mamili.
22:43.2
Mamili na tayo maggilas.
22:44.2
But,
22:45.2
you get what I'm saying?
22:46.2
So,
22:47.2
there are many constituencies
22:48.2
for this whole ICC thing.
22:50.2
Right?
22:51.2
And now,
22:52.2
you have no less than
22:53.2
Archbishop Villegas.
22:55.2
Archbishop Socrates Villegas
22:57.2
also saying that
22:58.2
investigators from
22:59.2
the International Criminal Court
23:01.2
should be allowed
23:02.2
to enter the Philippines
23:03.2
to probe allegations
23:04.2
of human rights abuses.
23:05.2
So,
23:06.2
now you also have
23:07.2
the Catholic Church hierarchy
23:08.2
coming in
23:09.2
and becoming
23:10.2
constituency for the ICC.
23:11.2
Right?
23:12.2
So,
23:13.2
insofar as this process
23:14.2
seeks to ferret out
23:15.2
the truth
23:16.2
and possibly
23:17.2
to hold accountable
23:18.2
those who in arrogant
23:19.2
abuse of power,
23:20.2
this is,
23:21.2
I'm quoting
23:22.2
Archbishop Villegas,
23:23.2
may have caused
23:24.2
others,
23:25.2
even possibly innocent people,
23:26.2
loss of life in violation
23:27.2
of guarantees enshrined
23:29.2
to which the Philippines
23:30.2
is a part,
23:31.2
well,
23:32.2
was a part,
23:33.2
because we left
23:34.2
thanks to Harry Roque.
23:35.2
A thorough inquiry by persons
23:36.2
without vested interest
23:37.2
or prior alliances
23:38.2
should be welcomed.
23:39.2
So,
23:40.2
obviously that's ICC.
23:41.2
Truth has never destroyed
23:42.2
a nation.
23:43.2
It is falsehood
23:44.2
that has been the undoing
23:45.2
of many peoples.
23:46.2
So,
23:47.2
very strong words,
23:48.2
no?
23:49.2
I,
23:50.2
Archbishop Villegas,
23:51.2
our sense of nationhood
23:52.2
cannot be so fragile
23:53.2
that it cannot allow
23:54.2
the entry of persons clothed
23:55.2
with international authority
23:56.2
to make a determination
23:57.2
or willing and able
23:58.2
to prosecute and try to
23:59.2
try persons responsible
24:00.2
for what they,
24:01.2
what can be,
24:02.2
can only be characterized
24:03.2
as truly heinous assaults
24:04.2
on human life.
24:05.2
So,
24:06.2
I think that's his term
24:07.2
for mass atrocities.
24:08.2
Essentially,
24:09.2
what Archbishop Villegas
24:10.2
is saying is
24:11.2
if we don't have a problem,
24:12.2
if we didn't do anything wrong,
24:13.2
why would we be ashamed
24:14.2
to be open
24:15.2
to an investigation,
24:16.2
right?
24:17.2
And the idea is that
24:18.2
we should be happy,
24:19.2
if ever,
24:20.2
to have the help
24:21.2
of the international community
24:22.2
to get to the bottom
24:23.2
of the issue,
24:24.2
which is
24:25.2
what really happened?
24:26.2
The fighting,
24:27.2
the fighting,
24:28.2
right?
24:29.2
Remember what we said,
24:30.2
this is the problem I have,
24:31.2
violence and war
24:32.2
is almost inevitable
24:33.2
in human life,
24:34.2
but you cannot
24:35.2
just keep on trying
24:36.2
to justify violence
24:37.2
by saying,
24:38.2
ah,
24:39.2
because they fought,
24:40.2
ah,
24:41.2
because they were used
24:42.2
as a human shield
24:43.2
by this terrorist group.
24:44.2
Those styles,
24:45.2
if you allow that
24:46.2
to pass,
24:47.2
then anything
24:48.2
that happens
24:49.2
in the world
24:50.2
is a problem.
24:51.2
So,
24:52.2
if you allow
24:53.2
that to pass,
24:54.2
then anything
24:55.2
can be justified,
24:56.2
right?
24:57.2
Then you can go on
24:58.2
killing as many people
24:59.2
as you can
25:00.2
and just keep on saying,
25:01.2
ah,
25:02.2
because they were
25:03.2
used as a human shield,
25:04.2
ah,
25:05.2
because they fought,
25:06.2
you know?
25:07.2
But how do we really know
25:08.2
if that's really the case?
25:09.2
How do we really know
25:10.2
that they were just
25:11.2
collateral damage
25:12.2
or something more sinister
25:13.2
was going on?
25:14.2
So,
25:15.2
if there's really nothing
25:16.2
wrong that happened,
25:17.2
then let's open it,
25:18.2
let's open it
25:19.2
to the investigators,
25:20.2
right?
25:21.2
So,
25:22.2
that's what
25:23.2
you have to do.
25:24.2
You have the house leadership,
25:25.2
you have people
25:26.2
within your cabinet,
25:27.2
you have people
25:28.2
from outside,
25:29.2
you have the Catholic Church,
25:30.2
a lot of these people
25:31.2
are saying,
25:32.2
Sir,
25:33.2
if you have a problem
25:34.2
with the Dutertes,
25:35.2
don't worry,
25:36.2
we have friends
25:37.2
there,
25:38.2
right?
25:39.2
And as far as
25:40.2
international community
25:41.2
is concerned,
25:42.2
not only are
25:43.2
key western powers,
25:44.2
ah,
25:45.2
you know,
25:46.2
aligning behind
25:47.2
BBM because of
25:48.2
the China angle,
25:49.2
but you also have
25:50.2
the international community
25:51.2
ah,
25:52.2
a lot of people
25:53.2
ah,
25:54.2
who are more than
25:55.2
eager to see the
25:56.2
Philippines moving in
25:57.2
the right direction
25:58.2
in terms of human rights.
25:59.2
Because let's be honest,
26:00.2
almost second year
26:01.2
BBM,
26:02.2
there's still no significant
26:03.2
improvements in human rights.
26:04.2
No?
26:05.2
Ah,
26:06.2
well,
26:07.2
the EJKs are not as bad
26:08.2
as before,
26:09.2
but it's not like we're,
26:10.2
you know,
26:11.2
moving towards really
26:12.2
a country of rule of law
26:13.2
yet,
26:14.2
right?
26:15.2
So,
26:16.2
Marcos Jr. has to show
26:17.2
a good governance reform
26:18.2
and this ICC issue
26:19.2
can hit many.
26:20.2
It's like one stone
26:21.2
that,
26:22.2
and it's a one stone
26:23.2
that was put together
26:24.2
by six,
26:25.2
seven different constituencies.
26:26.2
So,
26:27.2
this is the interesting
26:28.2
thing that is happening.
26:29.2
This,
26:30.2
this asymmetrical velocity
26:31.2
that is kind of,
26:32.2
ah,
26:33.2
moving much faster
26:34.2
than at least
26:35.2
I anticipated.
26:36.2
We can see now
26:37.2
yung mga mistakes
26:38.2
ni Digong
26:39.2
noong 2021
26:40.2
which led to
26:41.2
Marcos' coming back
26:42.2
instead of another
26:43.2
Duterte being in power.
26:44.2
That continuing,
26:45.2
so mukhang hindi
26:46.2
natututo si Tatay
26:47.2
sa mga kanyang mistakes.
26:48.2
Eh,
26:49.2
sina ba kasi
26:50.2
kaninga kasi siya
26:51.2
nakikinig,
26:52.2
diba?
26:53.2
Ayan.
26:54.2
So,
26:55.2
anyway,
26:56.2
so this is the
26:57.2
overall alignment,
26:58.2
misalignment,
26:59.2
and tracing things
27:00.2
that we're looking at
27:01.2
and hopefully,
27:02.2
once,
27:03.2
ah,
27:04.2
we have time to
27:05.2
coordinate this with
27:06.2
parang RNR,
27:07.2
Ronald De Amas,
27:08.2
tuloy-tuloy natin
27:09.2
itong machismo na ito.
27:10.2
On that note,
27:11.2
thank you very much
27:12.2
mga kameta
27:13.2
at saka yung mga,
27:14.2
ayan na,
27:15.2
sabi noong isa,
27:16.2
both Sara and Tulfo
27:17.2
are like Norwegian
27:18.2
airline.
27:19.2
So,
27:20.2
kameta natin na
27:21.2
mahilig sa Norwegian
27:22.2
airlines,
27:23.2
ganito na lang,
27:24.2
kung ang standard mo
27:25.2
sa buhay po,
27:26.2
ay Ryanair,
27:27.2
siguro naman maganda
27:28.2
yung Norwegian
27:29.2
airlines,
27:30.2
pero sana next time,
27:31.2
mag-royal
27:32.2
Norwegian airlines.
27:33.2
Kayo baka,
27:34.2
hindi na kaiwan
27:35.2
ng head of schedule.
27:36.2
But anyway,
27:37.2
so on that note,
27:38.2
thank you very much.
27:39.2
Pasensya na,
27:40.2
kailangan natin lumabas.
27:41.2
Ayan na,
27:42.2
naglaglag gan,
27:43.2
sinong,
27:44.2
yun yung advisor,
27:45.2
hindi kong,
27:46.2
eh,
27:47.2
diba na-ban na to
27:48.2
Anyway,
27:49.2
o,
27:50.2
baka nga,
27:51.2
yung mga taga-SMN na yan
27:52.2
nag-advise sa kanya,
27:53.2
Sir naman,
27:54.2
Sir naman,
27:55.2
with all the power
27:56.2
and popularity you had,
27:57.2
this was not inevitable.
27:59.2
So,
28:00.2
sa tingin ko,
28:01.2
mas inevitable
28:02.2
yung track A
28:03.2
na mention ko,
28:04.2
yung internal
28:05.2
cleanup and all.
28:06.2
Pero yung track B,
28:08.2
that's more own goal talaga eh,
28:10.2
more accelerated
28:11.2
by own goal.
28:12.2
So, both of them
28:13.2
had semi-inevitability
28:14.2
to them,
28:15.2
but there's a lot of
28:16.2
own goal happening
28:17.2
dito sa isang track B
28:18.2
na pinag-usapan natin.
28:19.2
I like this framework.
28:20.2
This is a good way of looking at it.
28:21.2
Alright, on that note,
28:22.2
thank you very much,
28:23.2
Mga Kameta,
28:24.2
marami salamat.
28:25.2
Please continue to support
28:26.2
yung ating bayan,
28:27.2
yung ating
28:28.2
minamahal na bayan,
28:29.2
kahit ganito yung mga leaders.
28:30.2
In fairness,
28:31.2
I'm moving in some right direction.
28:32.2
And,
28:33.2
please continue to support us
28:34.2
kahit medyo,
28:35.2
wala na eh,
28:36.2
ano na itura natin.
28:37.2
Alright,
28:38.2
on that note,
28:39.2
enjoyin ko muna itong
28:40.2
sunlight dito.
28:41.2
At,
28:42.2
ah,
28:43.2
ihabol natin
28:44.2
yung mga check-in natin
28:45.2
at
28:47.2
all of that.
28:48.2
Thank you very much,
28:49.2
Mga Kameta.
28:50.2
God bless.
28:51.2
At,
28:52.2