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00:00.0
Bro speaking of blind item, marami tayong blind item in the previous episode. This is a blind item ngayon yung inimply na behind a coup attempt against President Marcos Jr.
00:12.0
Of course in the Philippines when the term coup comes in, you always have a mixed response right?
00:19.0
So on one hand it's like, eh ok na naman, gagamitin na naman yan to shut down opposition. We had enough of the coup plot, weaponization during Duterte administration.
00:31.0
Our favorite natin, Oktoberfest. Oktober revolution. 2017 sabi nung isa, si Parlada ba yan? Sabi niya yung Russian Oktober revolution, Bolshevik takeover.
00:47.0
Sabi niya, baka Oktoberfest diba? Now speaking of that, syempre dami blind item. Sino naman ang behind? Ano dyan?
00:57.0
Of course alam natin, logically if there is discontent within the military, where is this coming from? If ever there's anyone against BBM, I don't think it's the opposition anymore.
01:11.0
It's those who are very unhappy because they didn't get the piece of pie they were expecting.
01:16.0
So this coup plot looks like a blind item talaga?
01:21.0
Baka nga blind item. You know what I find really weird is, eto lang yung sense ko, I think this is a nothing burger.
01:30.0
I really think it's a nothing burger. May naging ingay dyan para manggulo. It's a nothing burger because if the military was angry, it was not at this administration, it was at the previous administration.
01:41.0
Of course, on a very personal level, I'm sure mas close kay Politico X, kay Politico Y, may mga colonel na mas close kay Politico X or Politico Y.
01:53.0
So that's yung personal level. And there might be may personal na giraan dito, hindi ko alam.
01:58.0
Pero if you zoom out, mag-macro ka lang, kanina ko pa magagalit kung ikaw military. The military is extremely pro-American and it's extremely anti-communist.
02:07.0
Yung previous administration was not only willing to sell us out to China, it was also elected with the support of the Communist Party of the Philippines.
02:16.0
And then went on to appoint communist-nominated cabinet secretaries to its government.
02:23.0
And really played ball with the communists until, of course, it went on a hard right turn and started killing the communists because it was reacting to the military.
02:33.0
So kung kanino ba magagalit ang military? Dito ba? Sa current organization?
02:37.0
Line item tayo, bro. Huwag natin pagkailangan. Huwag natin pagkailangan.
02:42.0
May letter R doon, hindi Ronald Llamas. Sabi ko ba, baka hindi kukuladesma daw.
02:52.0
At the same time, bro. So the other part of my answer is, of course, no burger, hamburger.
02:59.0
But on the other hand, we have a history of coups, right? So many coup d'etats in Filipino history.
03:05.0
And let's not forget, earlier this year, President Marcos Jr. had to step in and do some reshuffle in the military.
03:12.0
Diba? Because some people appointed by some other blind item people. Blind item natin ulit.
03:19.0
May in-appoint sila sa military na mukhang may ginagawang kalukuan daw.
03:23.0
So they had to do some reshuffle and all of that.
03:25.0
Although, of course, the official excuse was, oh, some of the appointments in the past kind of jumbled the hierarchical promotions.
03:32.0
So we had to just rationalize it.
03:34.0
But from what I hear, including from people who are serving at a very senior level in defense and military,
03:40.0
was actually some mumbo jumbo was going on. So Marcos had to fix it.
03:43.0
So at the same time, I cannot be totally dismissive about this because we do have a history of coup plots and all of that.
03:50.0
Ang coup talaga natin, Marcos era, diba? Of course, the biggest coup is really the otogolpe of 1972.
03:57.0
Because in 1972, the declaration of martial law was a coup, actually, if you think about it.
04:03.0
Pero it was an internal coup. In other words, Marcos used the military to destroy the administration he was leading
04:11.0
to create a new dictatorship, a new administration, which would be run by himself in the military.
04:16.0
So that's actually a self-coup, or in political science terms, otogolpe.
04:20.0
That is still the biggest coup in our history, 1972.
04:23.0
That's very convenient to say science.
04:26.0
And it was no less by a lawyer, a constitutional law specialist in a way, right?
04:33.0
Which makes it very interesting.
04:34.0
So let's talk about it. Because if you look at the arms race of the Philippines, it's the most American-trained military in the entire Indo-Pacific.
04:42.0
I cannot think of any other country as influenced by America.
04:46.0
Because you can talk about Japan and Korea having US bases and all.
04:49.0
But those countries already had their own military cultures, in the case of Japan, before they were colonized by the US.
04:53.0
So they have a long history of having their own shogun and all of that.
04:57.0
In the Philippines, really, the AFP arms race, it's really an American constructed institution.
05:03.0
I'm not saying they're pro-American still.
05:05.0
Because I have a more nuanced take on that.
05:07.0
I think they're more China-skeptic than just blindly pro-American.
05:10.0
But going back to this, it's true.
05:12.0
Very similar to us, actually. More China-skeptic than pro-American.
05:16.0
Yeah, exactly. That's how I see it.
05:18.0
It's more I hate those guys than I love Americans.
05:21.0
Because the Americans sometimes seem to have a swagger.
05:25.0
You know what, honestly, I was talking to some military people.
05:27.0
They prefer to be with Australians because they're cool.
05:31.0
And they're very nice.
05:33.0
I'm not going to say who told me that.
05:34.0
But pretty high-level people.
05:36.0
They said, it's nice to talk to Australians.
05:38.0
They don't have a swagger.
05:39.0
They're so fun to be around with.
05:41.0
They bring you fancy stuff, but without showing off.
05:46.0
But what you're saying is the baseline culture came from the Americans.
05:51.0
And speaking of that, this is where Samuel Huntington, among others, comes in.
05:54.0
Samuel Huntington, one of his best books was The Soldier and the State.
05:59.0
I don't like his Clash of Civilizations.
06:00.0
We'll discuss that later in our next episode as we discuss the Middle East, etc.
06:05.0
But one of his first books was The Soldier and the State.
06:07.0
And he talked about civil-military relations and what makes democracy strong.
06:10.0
And what makes democracy stable is objective control by the civilian leadership over the military through constitutional order.
06:19.0
The moment the military just obeys the father or mother, it's no longer a military force.
06:27.0
Father to mother or mother to father?
06:29.0
It's a personal militia now, right?
06:31.0
Father to mother, but not mother to father, okay?
06:34.0
That's what I thought.
06:35.0
Mother to father.
06:36.0
Okay, let's not talk about that.
06:37.0
Let's talk about mother to father.
06:39.0
Yes, that was a good entry.
06:42.0
So speaking of this, I would say compared to other Asian armed forces,
06:47.0
the Philippines had the most exposure to this kind of professional objective control, right?
06:53.0
Strategic culture that we inherited from.
06:55.0
It's one of the few good things I think we got from the Americans, which is the military-civil-military relations.
07:00.0
I mean, of course, it was sometimes gray because of Max Aysay, defense minister, working with who against who.
07:08.0
But compared to our neighbors, speaking of Thailand, I think Thailand has had more constitutions and coups than there are months.
07:18.0
The Indonesian military has a duifong si or a double function.
07:23.0
So it's not just protection.
07:25.0
It perceives itself as a guarantor of certain right-wing politics that are at the center of Indonesia.
07:32.0
And in our previous episode, we talked about the 1965 mass killings.
07:36.0
And that was because the military thought of itself as a guardian of certain principles of the republic,
07:43.0
and therefore thought that it could just, as a result, could enable the killing of almost a million suspected communists.
07:50.0
So, I mean, compared to our neighbors, I think our military is pretty okay, actually.
07:55.0
Especially compared to the Indonesians.
07:57.0
My God, historically, Indonesians.
08:01.0
If that doesn't make you look down on the military, I don't know what.
08:04.0
Again, I mean, of course, Easter of EJKs.
08:07.0
There are many problems.
08:09.0
I mean, we can talk about Palpara and so on and so forth.
08:11.0
But the reality is we have to appreciate the film is within the Southeast Asian context.
08:15.0
Oh, within the South.
08:17.0
Within the South.
08:18.0
Thailand compared to Indonesia, my goodness.
08:19.0
The mass killings were done in the South.
08:28.0
That's the real archetype of the horrible military.
08:33.0
Even in the Middle East, bro, you can't find anything like that.
08:36.0
Like the genocidal.
08:38.0
I remember one of my colleagues said,
08:41.0
Who's the ugly one?
08:42.0
That's the bad one.
08:43.0
In Myanmar, they're ugly.
08:45.0
I mean, they're literally ugly.
08:47.0
Like, have you seen that?
08:48.0
Like, they're literally ugly.
08:50.0
I mean, what's the name of it?
08:52.0
Even in Thailand, the uncles.
08:54.0
The punta uncles are so ugly also.
08:57.0
No, but at least one of them is chubby.
08:59.0
The other one is cute.
09:01.0
The priot kind of looks presentable enough.
09:03.0
But look at the Myanmar one, bro.
09:06.0
Their head's nickname was something like cat shit.
09:11.0
Because it's said to be smelly.
09:12.0
Like, bro, just look at their nicknames.
09:15.0
What's the word we use?
09:18.0
There's an element that's kind of hard for our soldiers.
09:22.0
I forgot the Burmese term that's used.
09:24.0
But it kind of translates as bat shit.
09:26.0
Bat shit versus matikas.
09:30.0
Why is there a history of matikas?
09:33.0
I mean, you're right, Richard.
09:35.0
I mean, if you think about the PMA,
09:37.0
I mean, you're from Baguio.
09:39.0
I suspect you might have some attachment to the PMA.
09:42.0
It's actually a great...
09:43.0
That's my second choice.
09:44.0
It's actually a great institution.
09:47.0
I mean, in a way, it does produce very professional soldiers.
09:51.0
It's a great state college.
09:54.0
It's a great state tertiary institution.
09:56.0
We talk about the University of the Philippines a lot,
09:58.0
but the PMA is a great tertiary.
10:00.0
And like the University of the Philippines,
10:02.0
it creates social mobility.
10:05.0
Because kung mahirap ka, nakapasok ka sa PMA,
10:07.0
makakapag-aral ka,
10:08.0
and then you become a soldier,
10:10.0
and after you're a soldier,
10:11.0
you may not want to stay as a soldier,
10:13.0
then you can do other things.
10:15.0
And so it's a vehicle for social mobility,
10:18.0
like the best state institutions.
10:20.0
And then they do teach you at the PMA
10:24.0
the distinction between,
10:26.0
the proper distinction between a civilian and a military person.
10:29.0
So I think it's one of our great institutions,
10:33.0
pagpugay sa ating mga PMAers.
10:37.0
But that baseline culture, of course, can be corrupted.
10:40.0
Si Ferdinand Marcos was the worst corruptor
10:42.0
of that baseline culture.
10:44.0
And I've been very critical of Alfred McCoy recently,
10:47.0
but his best book is actually called
10:50.0
Closer Than Brothers,
10:52.0
where he talks about how Marcos perverted the military.
10:55.0
And napaka, you know,
10:57.0
65, you know, first term pa lang,
11:00.0
and Ninoy Aquino was warning about this already.
11:03.0
He was trying to create already what Aquino called
11:05.0
the garrison state.
11:07.0
And the reason for that was
11:09.0
slowly yung mga people na rinirespect yung distinction
11:12.0
between civilian and the military,
11:13.0
mostly PMA trained,
11:15.0
tinatanggal yung Marcos,
11:16.0
slowly in his first term,
11:17.0
or early retirement,
11:18.0
or hindi pi rinopromote,
11:19.0
kaya very subtle.
11:21.0
And then yung mga nagra-rise up the ranks
11:24.0
mostly mga galing ROTC programs,
11:26.0
mostly Ilocano, I'm sorry Richard.
11:29.0
Of course, yung best example would just be Fabian Ver.
11:31.0
Fabian Ver is not a PMAer, diba?
11:33.0
Fabian Ver was essentially a laki of Ferdinand Marcos,
11:36.0
and that's why he got promoted.
11:37.0
So that's how you corrupt the military,
11:39.0
despite yung kind of baseline system
11:41.0
of loyalty to democratic principles.
11:46.0
And if you wanna see how that's done,
11:47.0
just read Closer Than Brothers.
11:49.0
It's a great example.
11:50.0
So the argument, essentially, of McCoy is
11:52.0
it's less about the collapse of professionalization
11:56.0
of PMA-trained people,
11:58.0
it's more of the marginalization
12:00.0
of the truly professional one
12:02.0
in favor of their version of BATOL.
12:05.0
I don't know, like their own political loyalists.
12:14.0
Or si Fabian Ver,
12:15.0
you know, BATOL de la Rosa,
12:17.0
Asturo Dries, Duterte,
12:18.0
as to Fabian Ver.
12:21.0
So Ver was original.
12:22.0
Ika-iba lang doon,
12:23.0
tulis yung isa, sundali yung isa.
12:26.0
But except, of course, the Ver's are also,
12:28.0
I mean, there's a report that in the 18th century,
12:31.0
there was a Don Fer or something like that.
12:33.0
So actually, may old Spanish era
12:35.0
elite ang background ng mga Fabian Ver na yan.
12:38.0
But ibang usapan na yan.
12:39.0
Kasi actually, I'm thinking of writing a book
12:41.0
about Marcos, di ba?
12:42.0
I'm thinking about opening a scene in Batac,
12:44.0
parang mga vignettes there, di ba?
12:47.0
So that's why I had to research
12:48.0
about also the Fabian Ver
12:49.0
and all of that background.
12:50.0
But going back to this,
12:52.0
but one element we didn't discuss
12:54.0
and I think it's relevant also today,
12:56.0
Because today is the new Cold War,
12:58.0
which I think is putting the Philippines,
12:59.0
I mean, I see the Philippines
13:01.0
like the Berlin of 1960s, 1950s, right?
13:03.0
This is where the two giants are colliding.
13:06.0
All of intel and counter-intel
13:08.0
and sharp power and propaganda.
13:10.0
Everything's happening in the Philippines.
13:11.0
This exciting part, this is the scary part.
13:14.0
And the Philippine military is, of course,
13:16.0
at the forefront of dealing with this.
13:18.0
Now, during the Marcos time,
13:19.0
the Cold War, right?
13:21.0
Really provided, perhaps,
13:22.0
I mean, to what degree was the Cold War
13:24.0
a good excuse or a legitimate reason
13:27.0
for Marcos to militarize the state
13:30.0
or to objectivize his control
13:32.0
over the military
13:33.0
in order to more decisive deal?
13:35.0
I mean, like radically from the center, right?
13:37.0
But can we discuss that part too?
13:39.0
Because our good friends,
13:41.0
some of our good friends have written
13:42.0
on that extensively.
13:43.0
Nakasusuporto ka ng US
13:45.0
kasi sasabi mo lang
13:46.0
this is an anti-communist effort.
13:47.0
That's why I'm strengthening the military.
13:49.0
So at that point,
13:50.0
you could get away with any...
13:51.0
Yung problema with the Cold War
13:52.0
was you could get away with anything
13:54.0
if you style it as anti-communist, right?
13:56.0
And then the US will be like,
13:57.0
ah, anti-communist?
13:58.0
Sige, sige, supportado ka namin.
14:00.0
In a way, parang, ano eh,
14:01.0
parang the US thinks of itself
14:02.0
as so intelligent.
14:03.0
Pero actually, during the Cold War,
14:05.0
ang dali nilang utuin.
14:06.0
May haris sila ng utu-uto.
14:08.0
Now, if I'm in Chile,
14:09.0
you're underestimating
14:10.0
ganang mauturi ng US
14:12.0
for all their networks of intelligence and all.
14:15.0
Nag-re-rely din sila
14:16.0
sa mga operator na lo.
14:17.0
Indigenous informants,
14:18.0
I think that's the pejorative term,
14:21.0
Utu-uto sila, oh.
14:22.0
Parang mga mokong eh,
14:24.0
Sabi mo lang anti-communist ka,
14:26.0
you get a free pass.
14:30.0
do those circumstances
14:32.0
in this new Cold War
14:33.0
are ganaka utu-uto
14:34.0
ang mga Amerikano?
14:37.0
the son of a dictator,
14:38.0
but because he's anti-China,
14:40.0
ostensibly anti-China,
14:41.0
but he's not a dictator yet,
14:43.0
you know, like his father.
14:45.0
he'll never be a dictator.
14:46.0
Hopefully not, yeah.
14:48.0
What I'm saying is that
14:53.0
how to deal with China,
14:57.0
it's a political issue,
14:58.0
but the military is also
14:59.0
front and center.
15:00.0
And if there's anyone
15:01.0
who's going to be
15:03.0
within the military
15:04.0
to undermine BBM,
15:06.0
there's a China angle to that, right?
15:07.0
It's hard to imagine
15:08.0
this has nothing to do with China.
15:09.0
In the past kasi,
15:13.0
is because of corruption,
15:15.0
All of the kagawanan
15:16.0
nangyari in the South.
15:18.0
yes, these are problems,
15:19.0
institutional problems,
15:20.0
but I think this is more
15:21.0
geopolitical-driven than ever.
15:24.0
typical trapo situation,
15:27.0
kung ganyan sa timong,
15:28.0
may entrada ang China
15:29.0
sa military natin?
15:30.0
Not necessarily China,
15:31.0
but their proxies, right?
15:32.0
In favor of their...
15:33.0
Yung mga special envoy nila?
15:40.0
I'm really speaking out
15:41.0
without any concrete evidence.
15:44.0
I'm really speaking out
15:45.0
without any concrete evidence.
15:48.0
I'm really speaking out
15:49.0
without any concrete evidence.
15:51.0
if you look at the big picture,
15:52.0
I won't be surprised
15:54.0
supposed coup plot,
15:55.0
future coup plots
15:56.0
could be one way or another
15:58.0
broader competition
15:59.0
between US and China
16:01.0
Marcos keeps on going
16:02.0
harder and harder
16:03.0
not only to American orbit,
16:04.0
but even Japan right now
16:06.0
visiting forces agreement.
16:09.0
reciprocal access agreement,
16:11.0
what's going on there.
16:13.0
if you're pro-China,
16:18.0
my takes on Middle East
16:20.0
it is a big problem in the Philippines
16:21.0
and they were saying,
16:22.0
Philippines is falling
16:23.0
for Japanese militarism.
16:25.0
These are talking
16:26.0
from Communist point of view.
16:27.0
Japanese militarism?
16:28.0
Japanese militarism?
16:30.0
Japan did horrible things
16:31.0
in the Second World War.
16:34.0
But to talk about
16:36.0
as Japanese militarism?
16:38.0
We're here again!
16:41.0
are not changing.
16:42.0
Geopolitics is not changing.
16:45.0
Why did they believe
16:46.0
that the US presence today
16:47.0
is the same as the US presence
16:51.0
the Japanese presence today
16:52.0
is the same Japanese presence
16:54.0
in freaking 1940.
16:59.0
this is the ultimate irony.
17:01.0
the Makapili 2.0 club,
17:03.0
The people who are
17:04.0
attacking Japan today
17:13.0
ruling the Philippines.
17:15.0
When I hear the words
17:16.0
Japanese militarism,
17:18.0
Western colonialism,
17:21.0
that's a historical fact.
17:22.0
But how is that relevant
17:27.0
that is happening
17:29.0
in the West Philippines?
17:30.0
That's what I'm saying.
17:37.0
is already applying
17:38.0
for SMNI resident analyst.
17:41.0
dropping his name,
17:44.0
as foreign analyst
17:54.0
so I think we established
17:56.0
are far from perfect.
17:57.0
There was a lot of corruption
18:00.0
to the armed forces
18:01.0
of the Philippines,
18:02.0
especially during
18:05.0
The Bayanihan program,
18:06.0
General Bautista,
18:07.0
a very good friend of ours,
18:09.0
when he was the AFP chief,
18:10.0
he pushed for really
18:11.0
professionalization
18:12.0
of the security sector,
18:13.0
especially the military.
18:17.0
Digong's drug war.
18:19.0
Didong asked the military
18:25.0
we want the military
18:29.0
he wanted to declare
18:30.0
nationwide martial law,
18:35.0
he did not become
18:39.0
was because the military
18:43.0
that the soldiers
18:47.0
because here he was
18:48.0
like a town mayor
18:53.0
glocks to soldiers.
18:55.0
what will I do there,
18:57.0
They will be beaten
18:58.0
by the president.
19:01.0
because there are
19:03.0
really tough soldiers.
19:05.0
post-EDSA phenomenon.
19:09.0
the post-EDSA society.
19:15.0
and you should read
19:18.0
Boys in the Barracks.
19:19.0
Because after the
19:20.0
horrors of martial law,
19:23.0
the military itself
19:25.0
security sector reform.
19:28.0
the old tradition
19:33.0
post-martial law period
19:47.0
steady improvement.
20:00.0
I've been reading
20:01.0
Patricia Evangelista's book.
20:09.0
in the Philippines.
20:10.0
It's not the soldiers.
20:14.0
PNP for a good reason,
20:17.0
a long discussion,
20:20.0
just to appreciate it,
20:22.0
the Philippine military
20:28.0
I think you already
20:30.0
these persons under
20:32.0
political loyalty.
20:33.0
Some of them really,
20:35.0
went up very fast
20:37.0
political loyalty,
