00:13.3
At least, gladly, medyo malapit ng Christmas.
00:16.2
Medyo okay pa yung weather compared to what I was expecting.
00:19.2
But of course, from the Greenland...
00:20.7
Malapit na Christmas.
00:21.7
It's been Christmas for at least a month.
00:24.5
I'm talking about the international version of Christmas,
00:28.1
hindi yung bare months natin.
00:29.9
So mamaya na si Jose Marichan.
00:33.4
So, you know, I'm adjusting and all of that.
00:35.7
The funny thing is,
00:36.9
it looks like yung sleeping patterns ko completely stable
00:40.2
even when I'm traveling, pag nasa Europe,
00:42.5
or even all the way to Greenland.
00:44.3
Pero for some reason, whether it's in US or Philippines
00:47.3
or even Japan, yung mga ganyang bansa,
00:49.2
sirayin sirka yung cycle
00:51.1
because I don't know, maybe there's something about gravity in Europe.
00:54.0
Now, despite jet lags and all,
00:55.3
I can always sleep at 10pm, 11pm, wake up early morning.
00:58.9
Ganon din sa Greenland.
00:59.9
So, I don't know.
01:00.5
I don't know what's going on.
01:01.4
But hopefully, next time I drop by there,
01:03.3
I have a better circadian cycle, bro.
01:05.6
Iga, how are you?
01:06.7
How are things going with you?
01:08.2
I just finished the first draft of the book.
01:11.1
And then I'm hoping to send it to friends who can comment.
01:14.2
Namely, one Richard A. Darian.
01:16.7
A certain Richard A. Darian.
01:20.5
Looking forward, bro.
01:21.8
Do you have a publisher in mind?
01:23.4
I mean, has a publisher...
01:25.4
You're revealing your publisher or what?
01:27.9
I don't want to reveal the publisher.
01:29.9
Pero, US-based most likely.
01:33.1
Because hanggang wala pang kontrata,
01:35.3
hindi pa official.
01:36.3
But I am working with a publisher and an editor
01:39.8
from a publisher of some who are very enthusiastic about it.
01:43.6
I mean, they're editing it already.
01:45.1
So, they put in that much work.
01:47.4
So, is this more print or university press?
01:50.7
University pa rin because these are the demands of my job.
01:56.0
I have to publish with a university press.
01:59.2
Now, mamaya pag-asaban natin many, many complicated issues
02:03.4
including, of course, the conflict of not only the past month
02:07.2
but potentially the conflict of the decade, no?
02:09.6
Which is having a lot of impact all around the world.
02:11.7
Of course, we're talking about...
02:12.2
Probably conflict of our generation, you know?
02:14.0
Of our generation even.
02:15.1
Although, you know, I'm pessimistic enough to fear
02:17.9
that there could be even worse situation in 10, 15 years.
02:20.6
Being in the Philippines, analyzing China, Taiwan,
02:23.7
you never know, right?
02:24.7
But as things stand, you know,
02:26.6
like the number of children just killed over the past,
02:29.2
the number of children killed, what, over past years
02:33.2
according to the data I'm seeing.
02:35.0
So, from a humanitarian standpoint, this is crazy.
02:38.0
We thought the Ukraine conflict and casualties was horrible.
02:41.1
This is next level.
02:42.3
But before we go there,
02:43.5
let's talk about yung minamahal natin na bayan.
02:46.9
So, a number of things happened
02:48.7
and I felt it's perfect to talk to a historian.
02:52.6
But before we talk about history,
02:54.7
because I want to talk about coup.
02:56.9
History of coup d'etat in the Philippines.
02:59.2
Because it looks like, you know,
03:02.0
there are insinuations that, you know,
03:05.5
you know who, right?
03:06.4
Maybe behind coup plots against Marcos Jr.
03:10.7
It's not the Dilawang.
03:11.8
It's not the Pinklawang.
03:13.5
It's whoever's left in the power group.
03:15.9
As if sobrang lapit nila sa military
03:19.2
nitong pinag-uusapan mo.
03:21.8
As if yung policy nila na pro-China
03:26.4
mabango sa military
03:28.0
and then they have the gun.
03:29.2
So, to organize na military.
03:31.2
Yeah, I think this is based on this
03:33.4
oh, once upon a time,
03:35.4
so I owe you for life.
03:37.0
I own you for life.
03:38.2
It doesn't work that way.
03:40.1
Kahit na gusto ko kayong i-benta sa China
03:42.9
at nakipag-aliansa ako sa komunista,
03:46.9
Exactly, exactly.
03:48.3
Pero bago tayo pumunta sa mga coup at coup plotters,
03:50.8
marami din tayong mga kaibigan na coup plotters natin,
03:54.4
Let's talk about itong Department of Aqu-
03:56.7
I'm sorry, Agriculture.
03:59.2
Department of Aquaculture
04:03.9
Our favorite, bro.
04:04.9
Our favorite department.
04:06.3
Department of Agriculture.
04:08.0
How do you feel about the appointment
04:09.6
of one of the biggest donors to Marcos
04:11.7
who also happens to be a businessman
04:13.3
and who happens to come from background
04:15.7
not in agriculture but aquaculture, right?
04:19.2
How do you feel about it, bro?
04:20.9
May nabasa akong isang article na
04:22.8
at least daw alam niya yung distribution networks
04:25.4
kasi part siya ng distribution.
04:29.2
there's something to be said about that
04:31.2
and I think lagi naman
04:32.5
pag nag-a-appoint ng businessman
04:34.0
into certain positions in government,
04:36.1
lagi kang iiling ng konti
04:38.2
kasi may conflict of interest.
04:40.3
Madalas may conflict of interest
04:41.8
unless, of course,
04:42.6
bitawan niya yung mga holdings niya.
04:45.0
at the same time,
04:47.1
we do know that the advantage
04:48.6
of certain businessmen,
04:49.9
kung magaling sila na businessman
04:51.2
and hindi corrupt na businessman
04:52.5
na naglalaro lang,
04:53.9
is meron silang hands-on experience
04:56.1
with the industry
04:56.9
and if they can step beyond
04:58.3
their narrow interests
04:59.6
and take on the position
05:00.5
of a cabinet minister,
05:01.5
it could be really effective.
05:02.8
that's a silver lining.
05:04.5
But on the other hand,
05:06.0
this does kind of break
05:07.7
a kind of certain pattern
05:09.0
within the Marcos administration
05:10.6
of really appointing technocrats
05:12.4
to key positions,
05:14.5
a couple of weeks back,
05:15.4
we were even thinking na
05:16.6
baka mag-appearan si Maroja sa cabinet
05:19.1
or si Babe Simpson sa cabinet.
05:22.2
between the two of us,
05:23.5
we were thinking that
05:24.2
there was a real technocratic push
05:25.8
within the government,
05:28.0
like this sounds like,
05:29.6
a kind of Duterte appointment.
05:32.0
it's similar to like,
05:34.1
hindi naman kasing lala.
05:35.0
Pero yung pinakamalala
05:35.9
na conflict of interest
05:41.7
na in-appoint si Mark Villar,
05:44.3
Very clear conflict of interest there.
05:46.3
So, this is more like
05:47.0
a tatay move for me
05:48.3
than a very BBM move.
05:50.0
What are your thoughts?
05:54.0
hindi naman kasing sama,
05:54.6
pero mas close yun.
05:56.0
I mean, in fairness,
05:56.5
I mean, both of us are nuanced.
05:57.8
Of course, we want
05:58.5
whoever is there to succeed
05:59.7
because medyo malalayang
06:01.5
Department of Agriculture.
06:03.5
before going there,
06:06.0
I wonder if there were takers.
06:13.1
Actually, Marcos Jr.
06:14.3
had other people in mind,
06:15.7
including other donors
06:16.7
who are much closer
06:20.0
for this department.
06:20.7
But, baka wala talagang gusto eh.
06:22.8
So, I don't know the story
06:25.1
who may have been offered this.
06:26.5
I'm not going to pretend
06:27.3
that this was really
06:28.3
the choice of Marcos Jr.
06:30.9
this is the reflection
06:33.5
strategy about moving forward.
06:35.0
But, it's very clear.
06:35.7
Marcos wants to create
06:36.7
a plausible deniability.
06:39.8
A one degree of separation
06:41.1
from the food crisis
06:42.3
on popularity disaster
06:44.3
he's facing, right?
06:45.7
if you put someone else
06:46.6
in charge of the agriculture,
06:48.0
at least there's a fall guy,
06:50.7
that's why others
06:51.5
didn't want to take the job
06:52.5
because it's essentially
06:53.8
applying to be the fall guy,
06:55.7
If the food inflation
06:57.7
So, that's what I'm looking at, bro.
07:00.3
baka walang takers masyado
07:01.9
because even with Maroas,
07:03.6
I think it's more DTI
07:04.8
we were thinking about
07:06.0
rather than Department of Agriculture.
07:07.4
I was thinking about
07:09.2
but election is coming soon.
07:10.6
So, if Kiko Pangilinan
07:11.5
is thinking of running,
07:12.5
which I think he is,
07:15.6
hoping that, you know,
07:17.0
Kiko will join her soon
07:18.2
so that hindi siya
07:18.8
nag-isa sa Senate,
07:19.7
then it doesn't make sense
07:21.8
this administration
07:22.6
for another additional reasons
07:25.6
already on next election.
07:27.6
wala talagang takers
07:28.7
and for Marcos Jr.,
07:29.8
he just felt this
07:32.9
one degree of separation
07:34.8
and the food crisis problem.
07:38.0
because he's still the president.
07:39.2
He's still gonna get the blame
07:40.4
if food inflation persists
07:41.7
but at least he will have
07:43.1
which he hasn't had
07:44.3
for more than a year.
07:45.4
Ika, what do you think about it?
07:51.0
kasi unless you think about,
07:52.4
again, babalik tayo
07:53.0
dun sa taripa, diba?
07:54.0
We have some of the highest
07:55.1
food tariffs in Asia
07:58.1
in Southeast Asia
07:59.5
our inflation is the worst
08:00.9
because of our food tariffs
08:02.6
which disproportionately
08:04.1
detriment the poor.
08:07.2
So, kahit sino pa
08:08.1
ilagay mo dyan sa agriculture,
08:10.4
yung inflation natin
08:13.7
ang nananatiling problema.
08:15.8
I would like to think
08:17.3
inordinately high tariffs
08:21.1
I don't believe in root causes
08:22.3
but as the major cause
08:25.1
some people say that
08:26.1
the major cause of the problem
08:28.2
yung mga parang economic
08:29.3
nationalists talaga
08:30.9
absolute food security
08:33.0
absolute food security
08:34.3
is a kind of pipe dream
08:37.1
we're part of a global economy
08:38.7
and dahil bahagi tayo
08:39.8
ng isang global economy
08:41.0
kailangan talaga natin
08:42.6
at sa pag-aangkat
08:44.4
masiguro na yung inaangkat
08:47.3
ang pinapakain natin
08:49.0
ay hindi na mamahalan
08:50.7
dun sa binibili nila
08:52.0
so, unless you can do
08:53.3
something about that
08:55.1
hindi na din yung magagawa
08:56.5
ng agriculture department
08:58.2
may mga other things
09:01.3
in the direction of
09:08.5
hindi na kasing aggressive
09:09.6
so, baka hindi na rin
09:10.6
natin kailangan mag-rate hike
09:13.3
nag-rate hike pa rin
09:16.0
because the Banko Sentral
09:17.3
is the Banko Sentral
09:19.3
nagka-catch up sila
09:25.1
So, there are other things
09:29.9
pero yung long-run
09:32.4
ito talaga yung conclusion ko
09:33.5
when we talk about inflation
09:36.5
we're actually talking
09:37.8
about food inflation
09:40.1
address yung big issue
09:41.6
around food inflation
09:43.3
may hirapan talaga
09:45.3
agriculture department
09:46.7
and all this other stuff
09:49.0
central bank interventions
09:50.4
temporary tinkering
09:53.3
distribution problems
09:54.9
that stuff can help
09:58.0
pero yung malaking issue
09:59.1
yung napakalaking taripa
10:00.6
unless ma-tugin mo yun
10:02.7
mal pa rin yung pagkain
10:04.2
Bro, I'm gonna push you
10:05.3
a little bit here
10:05.9
I mean, none of us are
10:07.2
agricultural economists here
10:08.8
I think yung sinasabi mong tariff
10:11.2
ito yung essentially
10:16.9
90% from Vietnam alone
10:18.5
and then the rest
10:19.1
from Thailand, etc.
10:21.4
that's the quote-unquote
10:26.1
That's the proximate cause
10:27.5
pero ano yung mga
10:28.5
structural factors
10:29.5
how can we explain
10:30.8
a country like the Philippines
10:35.1
such a good climate
10:40.1
hindi lang sa bigas
10:41.0
I mean, what really explains
10:42.8
agricultural sector?
10:44.6
I mean, naiintindihan ko
10:45.9
pinag-usapan natin
10:46.7
maybe yung diet natin
10:48.1
medyo bawas-bawas
10:55.3
athletic friends around me
10:57.0
yeah, we really have to
10:58.4
but it's easy to say for you
10:59.7
because you can have steak
11:00.8
mahal ang protina eh
11:04.8
yung mga advice na
11:07.1
healthy lifestyle
11:09.4
what are the structural factors
11:11.7
okay, I'll put it this way bro
11:13.2
what explains the fact that
11:15.3
close to your heart
11:15.9
that the Philippines
11:16.8
has the longest running
11:19.7
land reform program
11:22.5
if not in the world
11:23.5
I mean, this is close to you
11:25.7
research back in the day
11:27.4
your current book
11:28.6
looks at of course
11:29.8
political economy
11:34.3
bakit ang Pilipinas
11:36.9
pagdating sa kanyang
11:37.6
agricultural sector
11:41.0
tama, this is where
11:42.1
maybe the traditional
11:45.1
nakahit naalala ko
11:46.3
sa Hacienda Luisita
11:48.8
pag hawak ng kuwa
11:50.5
may times kasi na
11:55.3
they'll just occupy the land
11:56.4
and they'll produce
11:57.2
what they need to produce
12:00.4
so, pag hawak ng kuwa
12:02.0
kung magtutubo yan
12:02.9
meaning they grow sugar
12:04.8
sugar is important
12:06.5
and it really doesn't
12:07.6
doesn't feed people
12:08.6
pag nag-auto kuwa ko
12:11.5
yung mga magsasaka
12:13.1
nagtatanim ng gulay
12:14.5
nagtatanim ng mais
12:15.5
all sorts of things
12:16.8
that can feed people
12:18.4
there's an argument
12:19.5
na more land reform
12:22.4
individual farmers
12:27.9
and will build them
12:29.8
that feed themselves
12:30.7
and feed other people
12:33.4
there's absolutely
12:38.4
nakikita mo yan eh
12:39.5
punta ka lang doon
12:46.6
this is one of those
12:49.6
elite capture argument
12:50.7
medyo sawa na ako doon
12:52.0
but this is the one
12:54.8
well, it makes sense
12:56.6
this is the one issue
12:58.9
where it makes too much
13:00.6
they're never gonna
13:03.4
I mean, I understand
13:04.2
you're being iconoclastic
13:05.7
and I think a lot of times
13:07.4
but sometimes may point
13:09.9
pari, ang linaw nito
13:11.5
kasi ito medyo malinaw
13:13.5
yung kongreso ni Cory
13:16.4
ng land reform efforts
13:17.5
sa panahon na yan
13:18.8
si Piping Kuangko
13:19.6
yung kapatid niya
13:20.9
ng Hacienda Luisita
13:23.0
pambigay yung Hacienda Luisita?
13:24.4
dito dahil si Piping
13:28.4
hindi mo kailangan
13:29.4
yung Hacienda Luisita
13:30.3
kailangan mo lang
13:30.9
bigyan ng stock options
13:31.8
yung mga magsasaka
13:36.5
land reform na yun
13:38.4
dahil may stock options sila
13:40.1
eh yung mga respondent
13:43.6
nakakatanggap sila
13:45.3
from yung kanilang
13:46.1
shares doon sa kumpanya
13:47.3
eh mas marami pa silang
13:49.3
binabaya doon sa tricycle
13:50.8
para kunin yung pera
13:52.0
kaysa doon sa pera
13:56.7
I guess a straight up
14:01.2
polydark talaga natin
14:04.9
parang there's also
14:06.0
meron din isang argument
14:09.9
the elite to transition
14:13.2
how do you do that
14:15.7
force industrialization
14:18.5
and I don't think
14:21.2
industrialization
14:25.4
argument does work
14:27.9
yung brother argument
14:29.9
developmental state
14:30.9
can transition away
14:33.4
you need to force
14:34.8
you need to force
14:41.0
but on the other hand
14:42.0
you need to create
14:44.8
mas madali silang
14:46.0
i-kick out of their land
14:47.0
because there are
14:48.4
available in the Philippines
14:49.5
that the government
14:53.3
are more associated
14:54.7
industrialization
14:56.1
and a developmental state
14:57.9
so it's more like
14:59.4
essentially double incentive
15:01.1
positive and negative
15:02.0
negative incentive
15:05.3
oh yan nga riyan namin kayo
15:08.6
it's not the end of the world
15:09.7
you can still have your
15:13.4
because you will find
15:16.5
magtrata transition tayo
15:21.4
yung diversification
15:23.4
is quite necessary
15:26.2
complete land reform
15:27.9
diversify exports
15:29.5
this is the elite
15:30.7
hindi mo basta-basta
15:32.5
kayang brasuhin yan
15:34.3
kailangan din talaga
15:37.4
which is a very good point
15:38.9
because I already
15:39.5
I essentially have
15:40.2
two countries in mind
15:41.0
Vietnam and Thailand
15:45.5
and the rest from Thailand
15:47.3
agricultural superpowers
15:50.9
I like so many things
15:52.4
but it's not like that
15:52.5
but it's not like that
15:52.6
but it's not like that
15:53.2
socialistic country
15:56.7
it's the best model
15:59.9
of course you and I
16:00.7
have read the book
16:03.3
and global history
16:04.1
where a lot of land reform
16:06.5
essentially pinatay
16:07.7
lahat ng mga shenderos
16:10.3
under the command
16:12.2
etong mga Vietnam
16:13.3
there was a dark turn
16:14.3
so if you look at
16:15.8
the history of land reform
16:20.8
and I'm definitely
16:23.8
of dealing with land reform
16:24.9
and then you look at Thailand
16:26.4
it's very interesting
16:28.2
Thailand was seen
16:29.2
as the Philippines twin
16:30.3
Southeast Asian twin
16:33.0
were troubled democracies
16:34.2
and troubled economies
16:36.4
but at some point
16:37.5
Thailand's democracy
16:39.6
but their economic
16:41.6
actually picked up
16:42.6
their infrastructure
16:44.0
and if you look at
16:49.3
agricultural sector
16:50.4
a lot of development
16:51.3
in the rural sector
16:52.6
Itaksin could have been
16:56.9
and then if you look at it
17:00.7
an export-oriented economy
17:02.2
because they attracted
17:03.1
a lot of high-quality
17:04.9
and manufacturing investment
17:07.4
yung mga billionaires
17:10.1
are even ethnically similar
17:11.3
to our billionaires here
17:12.3
they're Sino-Thai
17:14.2
they're more involved
17:16.0
in telecommunications
17:22.1
and a lot of them
17:24.3
automotive industry
17:26.3
so the incentives
17:27.2
for them to just have
17:28.2
Hashendero style life
17:29.8
although of course
17:30.8
Thailand has a different
17:31.6
political economy history
17:34.2
it's a very unequal society
17:35.5
it's a South Asian country
17:36.3
I kind of see your argument
17:38.3
because in Thailand
17:39.2
a lot of their big rich people
17:40.9
a lot of them Sino-Thai
17:42.0
they're very involved
17:43.7
in more high value added
17:47.9
telecommunications
17:48.9
rather than the typical
17:60.0
during the colonial era
18:01.0
I'm just trying to see
18:05.7
lessons we can draw
18:06.8
and I kind of understand
18:08.0
if you look at Thailand
18:09.0
their manufacturing
18:12.1
over the past 20 years
18:15.9
how things could also work
18:16.9
in the Philippines
18:17.4
short of a kind of
18:20.0
bloody reign of terror
18:23.0
some of our friends
18:24.2
essentially imply
18:26.1
I just don't think
18:28.3
for our friends in the left
18:30.5
na parang may Vietnam
18:31.5
and I really recommend
18:34.9
Mass Mobilization
18:35.7
in the Democratic Republic
18:39.1
it looks at really
18:40.4
yung mobilization efforts
18:41.7
and yung displacement
18:44.3
during land reform efforts
18:46.8
parang because it was
18:48.5
the Chinese gave them
18:53.4
are evil landlords
18:55.9
so because they had
18:57.1
to conform to that number
18:58.4
kahit yung mga kaalyado nila
19:00.8
and then eventually
19:01.6
ang nangyayari dyan
19:02.7
as like the war on drugs
19:04.4
ginagamit yung law
19:09.3
i-displace mo ganyan
19:10.5
parang yung tokang dati
19:12.0
drug lord sila landlord
19:14.6
kayo digong landlord
19:23.2
anti-communist historian
19:24.5
who actually worked
19:25.5
in our departments
19:27.5
so highly recommended
19:31.5
like I like a lot of things
19:33.3
but let's not forget
19:36.3
and a lot of that
19:36.9
was not really democratic
19:39.2
there's one country
19:40.3
that can give us an idea
19:47.3
when the far left
19:48.6
pushed the envelope
19:51.2
the whole general
19:52.3
Franco phenomenon
19:54.7
to the progressive
20:03.5
and how that created
20:08.2
ang sumagot naman doon
20:10.0
ang problema mo doon
20:12.6
walang American influence
20:15.4
you think Americans
20:16.5
will stand with the
20:18.2
who are their friends
20:25.4
a kind of Kissinger
20:26.3
Kissinger backlash
20:40.5
well-informed Chileans
20:42.5
former finance minister
20:45.7
and their argument
20:46.9
which is something
20:47.8
very close to my heart
21:00.2
what he was saying
21:02.7
like factor number
21:06.2
actually there was
21:08.8
ultra conservative
23:08.9
kailangan magingat
23:27.5
and if you look at
