00:25.8
dahil sa hen yung presidente natin
00:28.3
nangyari itong 5.9% growth rate na yan.
00:31.6
And of course, there's gonna be a lot of celebration.
00:33.0
Now, let me just say right off the bat
00:34.9
that I'm happy that we're growing
00:36.4
above expectations because expectations have been going low.
00:39.8
But at the same time, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
00:42.0
So, just to put things into context,
00:43.3
the Philippine economy expanded by 5.9% in the third quarter,
00:46.5
largely driven by public spending.
00:48.3
So, galing sa expenditures ng gobyerno.
00:51.0
Baka naman confidential funding.
00:54.2
Anong public spending yan?
00:56.0
Baka mga infrastructure spending,
00:59.1
So, growth in the July to September period
01:01.6
beat forecast and outpaced the 4.3%
01:04.3
recorded in Q2 of this year.
01:08.1
Now, nevertheless, this was way slower
01:10.1
than 7.7% expansion in the same three months period
01:17.4
this is way slower than last year,
01:19.5
but that is the good news is that
01:21.0
it was faster than the 4.7% average
01:24.4
ng survey ng mga analyst
01:28.9
So, 4.7% yung average expected growth
01:32.3
reached almost 6%.
01:34.1
So, 1.2% higher than what was expected.
01:37.7
So, that's pretty high.
01:40.3
data shows household consumption growth 5%
01:43.0
in the third quarter,
01:44.4
down from 8% a year earlier,
01:46.3
but government spending rose 6.7% year on year
01:50.4
compared to 7.1% contraction for the previous quarter
01:53.9
and growth of 0.8% a year.
01:58.3
ang nangyari po dito mga kameta is
01:60.0
bumaba yung consumption ng ating mga kababayan
02:03.1
dahil nga napakataas ng presyo ng mga bilihin
02:06.0
and of course, that's one of the reasons
02:07.7
bumaba ng significantly double-digit
02:09.9
yung approval rating ng ating presidente
02:11.6
and a whole lot of other top officials
02:15.4
including Senate President,
02:16.6
including Vice President,
02:17.6
lahat natamaan, di ba?
02:18.5
Ang damay-damay, di ba?
02:20.0
But, bumawi na naman tayo
02:21.6
because government spending this year
02:23.4
was 6.7% compared to
02:27.0
in the previous quarter
02:30.1
and growth of 0.8% lang last year.
02:34.3
So, 6.7% versus minus 7.1% quarter and quarter
02:38.1
and 6.7% versus 0.8%
02:42.2
in terms of year on year.
02:44.4
So, medyo bumawi yung government spending.
02:46.7
This could be infrastructure spending.
02:48.2
This could be other kinds of fiscal expansion
02:50.1
or policy by the government.
02:52.0
Nevertheless, as I said,
02:53.8
let's also be realistic about this.
02:57.0
Yung purchasing power ng ating mga kaubayan.
02:59.7
So, yung kakayan natin bumili ng mga bagay-bagay,
03:02.6
on average, actually, nag-decline.
03:05.0
Hindi ko na alam yung mga confidential fund
03:06.9
or mga ex-confidential fund.
03:10.1
And, yun nga, 5% lang this quarter
03:13.5
versus 8% last year.
03:15.8
So, significantly reduced na po
03:18.1
yung consumption spending.
03:20.1
And, we know that last year,
03:21.1
one reason why almost 7% yung yearly growth natin
03:25.0
is because ang taas.
03:26.3
Nagkaroon tayo ng revenge spending.
03:28.8
At, salamat dun sa mga nagregalo-regalo dyan last year.
03:34.1
But, this year, mga kameta,
03:35.9
medyo alanganin ang situation
03:37.3
kasi dahil sa inflation,
03:38.8
yung talagang tuloy-tuloy na pagtaas
03:41.2
ng presyo ng mga pangunahin na bilihin,
03:44.5
especially yung food inflation,
03:45.9
talagang bumababa yung consumption natin
03:49.7
at bumababa yung purchasing power
03:51.8
ng ating mga kaubayan.
03:52.9
So, yes, we did better in this quarter 3,
03:56.3
our growth was really low in quarter 2.
03:58.3
So, I don't know how we're gonna meet
04:00.5
etong target natin ng 6-7% by the end of this year.
04:04.4
I think the realistic expectation is
04:06.1
we're gonna grow at just above 5%.
04:08.7
If we have another 6-7%,
04:11.5
siguro 5-6% growth next quarter,
04:14.7
in the final quarter of this year,
04:15.9
meaning this quarter,
04:16.9
saan na di December,
04:18.5
medyo spendings go up.
04:20.9
Even in the most realistically positive scenario,
04:23.9
of us growing at 5.2%,
04:26.3
5% to maximum 6% this year,
04:30.6
hindi pa rin yung sapat, mga kameta,
04:32.5
to deal with some fundamental issues
04:34.4
that we have in the country.
04:35.3
I discussed the fact that the Philippines
04:36.9
were not attracting as much investment as we want
04:39.8
despite all the travels and all the pledges.
04:42.9
Lumalabas pa nga eh.
04:44.3
Net negative po yung FDI natin
04:46.6
for their investments.
04:49.1
Yung purchasing power natin
04:53.1
Remember, may population growth din tayo
04:54.9
ng mga more than 2%.
04:57.2
So, if you're growing at just about 5%,
04:59.3
and then you have a population growth of 2%,
05:01.0
and then you have an inflation of beyond 3-4%,
05:06.8
in a single year,
05:08.2
yung improvement dun sa living standard,
05:11.5
condition of living,
05:12.8
ng isang ordinaryong Pilipino
05:15.3
is almost negligible, to be honest.
05:17.6
Because for a country whose GDP per capita
05:19.5
is barely $4,000,
05:21.4
not even yet at the minimum threshold
05:24.0
of upper-middle income,
05:26.1
we have to grow 8% to 10% every year.
05:30.2
And, to be honest,
05:31.8
we also need some sort of population management program
05:34.3
to make sure, you know,
05:35.7
responsible, family planning, etc.
05:37.6
So that we're just at the replacement level
05:40.1
in terms of population growth.
05:41.4
So that yung per capita natin ay tuloy-tuloy.
05:43.6
Kasi, kahit naman mataas yung growth rate mo,
05:46.5
kung hindi naman yan nagtitrickle down,
05:48.1
kung mataas naman yung population growth mo,
05:49.9
bali wala rin yan eh.
05:51.4
And the reality is that we're operating still
05:53.7
from a very low base of high levels
05:55.9
of population growth.
05:56.1
Of food hunger, food poverty,
05:59.4
and high levels of economic inequality.
06:02.0
Alam nyo mga kameta,
06:03.7
every time pumupunta ako sa abroad,
06:05.4
especially dun sa mga napakayaman na bansa.
06:07.6
So, recently, nasa Scandinavia tayo.
06:10.3
I mean, you cannot get posher than that, no?
06:12.6
I mean, of course, you can get posher than that
06:14.2
if you are in Emirates or something.
06:16.3
But you get what I'm saying.
06:17.2
Like, these are the wealthiest countries out there.
06:20.7
Honestly, I see more Ferraris and Lamborghinis
06:23.3
in Manila than in Europe.
06:25.4
I saw more Ferraris and Lamborghinis in Manila than in Europe.
06:25.6
I saw more Ferraris and Lamborghinis in Manila than in Europe.
06:25.6
I saw more Ferraris and Lamborghinis in Manila than in Europe.
06:25.7
I saw more Lamborghinis and Ferraris in Manila
06:29.2
I mean, I'm not even in the richest area or something like that
06:31.0
than in Italy even, right?
06:36.2
I was in Florence.
06:40.8
All of those places.
06:43.3
Wala, mas marami pa rin yung mga Italian sports car
06:46.0
dito sa Pilipinas.
06:46.9
Tapos, ngayon, may Tesla-Tesla pang nalaman.
06:49.3
Eh, wala naman tayong matinong battery charging areas.
06:52.6
And even if meron,
06:53.4
ang mahal naman na electricity sa Pilipinas.
06:55.0
So, we have serious problems with economic inequality.
06:58.1
We have serious problems with food inflation, among others.
07:01.3
So, even growing at 6%,
07:03.1
which is almost impossible or very unlikely this year,
07:07.7
even that would not be enough.
07:10.5
So, we need to grow at 7-8%.
07:12.2
And we need to grow with high quality growth.
07:15.4
Meaning, bring in manufacturing investments.
07:18.5
Meaning, create more value-added products.
07:23.6
Get into semiconductor.
07:25.0
Get into semiconductor production.
07:26.0
Get into automobile manufacturing.
07:29.2
You know, bring jobs to more and more Pilipinas.
07:31.4
Because yung underemployment din natin is double-digit.
07:34.2
And even yung official unemployment rate natin
07:36.9
is highest in Southeast Asia.
07:38.6
And Southeast Asia is not the richest region.
07:40.4
It's a developing region, right?
07:42.4
So, when you put all of those things together,
07:46.3
I'm happy that we're beating the dismal expectations.
07:51.9
But at the same time, still very worried.
07:55.0
ibig na mo yung kalagayan ng isang ordinaryong Pilipino.
07:57.5
Or even not so ordinary.
07:58.3
Katulad natin, mga middle class.
08:01.9
Life is very expensive dito sa,
08:05.1
especially sa Manila at saka malalaking syudad.
08:07.9
Yun lang, mga kameta.
08:11.4
Oh, mas maraming nakita.
08:15.8
Maniwala sa akin.
08:17.5
O, punta kayo dyan sa Florence and Venice.
08:20.4
Ang nakikita kong luxury car dyan,
08:21.8
mas maraming nakita ng German luxury cars.
08:25.0
Sa Florence and all.
08:27.1
O, sa Denmark naman,
08:28.1
Copenhagen, mga gano'n.
08:28.9
Puno nakikita natin mga Range Rover,
08:30.5
yung mga ganyang cars.
08:31.6
Not even one like,
08:33.3
you know, Ferrari or Lamborghini.
08:35.5
Punta ka lang sa BGC.
08:36.6
And, dami mo makita mga Lamborghini na orange.
08:39.3
Tapos, yung mga ganyang iba-ibang kulay.
08:41.1
Yung mga crayons.
08:44.1
let's get back to politics.
08:46.5
Just a little bit of update on that.
08:49.9
Of course, also check yung analysis na ginawa natin
08:54.5
Among other things.
08:55.0
Of course, yung ating kasama sa Nexus podcast episode
08:59.8
We talk about industrial policy,
09:02.6
agriculture policy.
09:03.6
So, check those episodes
09:05.3
when we go deeper into developmental state dilemmas
09:08.8
and developmental state deficits in the Philippines
09:11.6
and why the Philippines has been left behind
09:13.6
by a lot of its neighbors.
09:15.2
Pag-usapan natin yan separately also later on.
09:17.6
But, you can also check those vlogs.
09:19.1
I-pupost ko yung link dyan sa baba.
09:20.9
So, don't worry about it.
09:21.6
You can check those things on your own.
09:22.9
And, you know, just put my name.
09:25.2
Industrial policy.
09:26.2
Something like that.
09:27.0
Stuff are gonna come out.
09:27.9
Don't worry about it.
09:29.6
Now, let's go back to politics.
09:32.7
Speaking of politics,
