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Anyway, mawena tayo pumunta dyan.

So, good news mga kameta, good news.

Ang Philippine economy po ay nag-grow

beyond forecast, expectations.

Beyond expectations.

At 5.9% ang taasa.

6% almost yung growth ng economy natin this quarter.

And I'm sure yung mga ka-BBM natin dyan,

proud na proud, sasabihin naman nila

dahil sa hen yung presidente natin

nangyari itong 5.9% growth rate na yan.

And of course, there's gonna be a lot of celebration.

Now, let me just say right off the bat

that I'm happy that we're growing

above expectations because expectations have been going low.

But at the same time, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

So, just to put things into context,

the Philippine economy expanded by 5.9% in the third quarter,

largely driven by public spending.

So, galing sa expenditures ng gobyerno.

Baka naman confidential funding.

Anong public spending yan?

Baka mga infrastructure spending,

among others.

So, growth in the July to September period

beat forecast and outpaced the 4.3%

recorded in Q2 of this year.

Now, nevertheless, this was way slower

than 7.7% expansion in the same three months period

a year ago.

So, in a way,

this is way slower than last year,

but that is the good news is that

it was faster than the 4.7% average

ng survey ng mga analyst

by Reuters.

So, 4.7% yung average expected growth

reached almost 6%.

So, 1.2% higher than what was expected.

So, that's pretty high.

So, in fairness,

data shows household consumption growth 5%

in the third quarter,

down from 8% a year earlier,

but government spending rose 6.7% year on year

compared to 7.1% contraction for the previous quarter

and growth of 0.8% a year.

So, in short,

ang nangyari po dito mga kameta is

bumaba yung consumption ng ating mga kababayan

dahil nga napakataas ng presyo ng mga bilihin

and of course, that's one of the reasons

bumaba ng significantly double-digit

yung approval rating ng ating presidente

and a whole lot of other top officials

including Senate President,

including Vice President,

lahat natamaan, di ba?

Ang damay-damay, di ba?

But, bumawi na naman tayo

because government spending this year

was 6.7% compared to

minus 7.7%

in the previous quarter

and growth of 0.8% lang last year.

So, 6.7% versus minus 7.1% quarter and quarter

and 6.7% versus 0.8%

in terms of year on year.

So, medyo bumawi yung government spending.

This could be infrastructure spending.

This could be other kinds of fiscal expansion

or policy by the government.

Nevertheless, as I said,

let's also be realistic about this.

Nag-contract po.

Yung purchasing power ng ating mga kaubayan.

So, yung kakayan natin bumili ng mga bagay-bagay,

on average, actually, nag-decline.

Hindi ko na alam yung mga confidential fund

or mga ex-confidential fund.

And, yun nga, 5% lang this quarter

versus 8% last year.

So, significantly reduced na po

yung consumption spending.

And, we know that last year,

one reason why almost 7% yung yearly growth natin

is because ang taas.

Nagkaroon tayo ng revenge spending.

At, salamat dun sa mga nagregalo-regalo dyan last year.

Para sa bayan.

But, this year, mga kameta,

medyo alanganin ang situation

kasi dahil sa inflation,

yung talagang tuloy-tuloy na pagtaas

ng presyo ng mga pangunahin na bilihin,

especially yung food inflation,

talagang bumababa yung consumption natin

at bumababa yung purchasing power

ng ating mga kaubayan.

So, yes, we did better in this quarter 3,

but our...

our growth was really low in quarter 2.

So, I don't know how we're gonna meet

etong target natin ng 6-7% by the end of this year.

I think the realistic expectation is

we're gonna grow at just above 5%.

If we have another 6-7%,

siguro 5-6% growth next quarter,

in the final quarter of this year,

meaning this quarter,

saan na di December,

medyo spendings go up.

But, this is it.

Even in the most realistically positive scenario,

of us growing at 5.2%,

5% to maximum 6% this year,

hindi pa rin yung sapat, mga kameta,

to deal with some fundamental issues

that we have in the country.

I discussed the fact that the Philippines

were not attracting as much investment as we want

despite all the travels and all the pledges.

Lumalabas pa nga eh.

Net negative po yung FDI natin

for their investments.

Yung purchasing power natin

ng mga Pilipino.

Remember, may population growth din tayo

ng mga more than 2%.

Annually.

So, if you're growing at just about 5%,

and then you have a population growth of 2%,

and then you have an inflation of beyond 3-4%,

that means,

in a single year,

yung improvement dun sa living standard,

condition of living,

ng isang ordinaryong Pilipino

is almost negligible, to be honest.

Because for a country whose GDP per capita

is barely $4,000,

not even yet at the minimum threshold

of upper-middle income,

we have to grow 8% to 10% every year.

And, to be honest,

we also need some sort of population management program

to make sure, you know,

responsible, family planning, etc.

So that we're just at the replacement level

in terms of population growth.

So that yung per capita natin ay tuloy-tuloy.

Kasi, kahit naman mataas yung growth rate mo,

kung hindi naman yan nagtitrickle down,

kung mataas naman yung population growth mo,

bali wala rin yan eh.

And the reality is that we're operating still

from a very low base of high levels

of population growth.

Of food hunger, food poverty,

and high levels of economic inequality.

Alam nyo mga kameta,

every time pumupunta ako sa abroad,

especially dun sa mga napakayaman na bansa.

So, recently, nasa Scandinavia tayo.

I mean, you cannot get posher than that, no?

I mean, of course, you can get posher than that

if you are in Emirates or something.

But you get what I'm saying.

Like, these are the wealthiest countries out there.

Honestly, I see more Ferraris and Lamborghinis

in Manila than in Europe.

I saw more Ferraris and Lamborghinis in Manila than in Europe.

I saw more Ferraris and Lamborghinis in Manila than in Europe.

I saw more Ferraris and Lamborghinis in Manila than in Europe.

I saw more Lamborghinis and Ferraris in Manila

in just my area.

I mean, I'm not even in the richest area or something like that

than in Italy even, right?

I was in Milano.

I was in Florence.

I was in Venice.

All of those places.

Wala, mas marami pa rin yung mga Italian sports car

dito sa Pilipinas.

Tapos, ngayon, may Tesla-Tesla pang nalaman.

Eh, wala naman tayong matinong battery charging areas.

And even if meron,

ang mahal naman na electricity sa Pilipinas.

So, we have serious problems with economic inequality.

We have serious problems with food inflation, among others.

So, even growing at 6%,

which is almost impossible or very unlikely this year,

even that would not be enough.

Nearly enough.

So, we need to grow at 7-8%.

And we need to grow with high quality growth.

Meaning, bring in manufacturing investments.

Meaning, create more value-added products.

Get into semiconductor.

Get into semiconductor production.

Get into automobile manufacturing.

You know, bring jobs to more and more Pilipinas.

Because yung underemployment din natin is double-digit.

And even yung official unemployment rate natin

is highest in Southeast Asia.

And Southeast Asia is not the richest region.

It's a developing region, right?

So, when you put all of those things together,

mga kameta,

I'm happy that we're beating the dismal expectations.

But at the same time, still very worried.

Because,

ibig na mo yung kalagayan ng isang ordinaryong Pilipino.

Or even not so ordinary.

Katulad natin, mga middle class.

Mahal talaga.

Life is very expensive dito sa,

especially sa Manila at saka malalaking syudad.

So, yun lang.

Yun lang, mga kameta.

Oh, mas maraming nakita.

Promise.

O, bahala kayo.

Maniwala sa akin.

Punta kayo dyan.

O, punta kayo dyan sa Florence and Venice.

Mga gana.

Ang nakikita kong luxury car dyan,

mas maraming nakita ng German luxury cars.

Sa Florence and all.

Anyway.

O, sa Denmark naman,

Copenhagen, mga gano'n.

Puno nakikita natin mga Range Rover,

yung mga ganyang cars.

Not even one like,

you know, Ferrari or Lamborghini.

Punta ka lang sa BGC.

And, dami mo makita mga Lamborghini na orange.

Tapos, yung mga ganyang iba-ibang kulay.

Yung mga crayons.

Anyway.

Mga kameta,

let's get back to politics.

Just a little bit of update on that.

Alam nyo naman.

Alam nyo naman.

Alam nyo naman.

Of course, also check yung analysis na ginawa natin

with friends.

Among other things.

Of course, yung ating kasama sa Nexus podcast episode

naman natin,

si Lele Claudio.

We talk about industrial policy,

trade policy,

agriculture policy.

So, check those episodes

when we go deeper into developmental state dilemmas

and developmental state deficits in the Philippines

and why the Philippines has been left behind

by a lot of its neighbors.

Alright?

Pag-usapan natin yan separately also later on.

But, you can also check those vlogs.

I-pupost ko yung link dyan sa baba.

So, don't worry about it.

You can check those things on your own.

And, you know, just put my name.

Hey, Daryan.

Industrial policy.

Something like that.

Stuff are gonna come out.

Don't worry about it.

Alright.

Now, let's go back to politics.

Speaking of politics,