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00:00.0
Dito, dito, dito. Okay. Alright. Yep.
00:19.7
Ayan na! Ayan na talaga! Ayan na talaga mga kameta!
00:26.2
Kamusta kayo dyan?
00:30.0
The arc of justice!
00:33.0
Right. Eto talaga.
00:35.5
Talaga sabi nga nila, sabi nga ni Lodi, di ba?
00:39.5
Back in the day, the arc of history bends towards justice.
00:44.0
Of course, na hindi naman tayo naive, alam natin marami mga problema at injustices
00:49.5
at mga kababalaghan at katrapuhan na nangyayari sa mundo.
00:54.5
But once in a while, mga kameta, be prepared for good surprise!
01:00.0
And in a sense, this was not supposed to be a total surprise.
01:04.0
A total surprise.
01:05.0
Because kung maalala nyo mga kameta, around six months ago or so,
01:11.0
if not last year pa, di ba, dun sa isang episode natin
01:14.0
with kanexus natin si Dr. Lisandro Claudio,
01:18.0
minention natin na that memo by Department of Justice kung saan
01:25.0
they pushed for the swift resolution of the Delima case within the next,
01:29.0
ten months to one year.
01:31.0
Sabi ko, if you look at that, then that means perhaps before the end of this year, 2023,
01:38.0
magkakaroon na tayong clarity doon sa situation ni former Senator Laila Delima.
01:45.0
Now, obviously, we're gonna talk about the details shortly.
01:48.0
Obviously, hindi pa tapos ang laban in a sense that, of course, hindi pa siya officially,
01:53.0
technically speaking, declared as completely innocent sa lahat ng mga kaso na sinampas sa kanya
01:58.0
ng dating Tatay administration, right?
02:02.0
Pero alam natin mga kameta, you can already feel it.
02:07.0
Nag-turn na ang tide.
02:09.0
Naku po, kung ikaw ay...
02:12.0
Ikaw ang DDS ngayon, medyo...
02:15.0
Medyo mahirap na. Medyo mahirap na kung DDS ka ngayon, alright?
02:19.0
Ayan na yung Mau natin, no?
02:21.0
Ayan, wala pa si... Wala ka si Picasso. May pusa na dito.
02:28.0
Pasok ka dito dyan sa likod.
02:30.0
Ayan na mga kameta. This is it. This is it.
02:33.0
This is big. This is big. Super big. Ayan.
02:38.0
Because for me, this could potentially open up the floodgates.
02:42.0
Kaya nga sabi ko, perhaps it makes sense for us to talk about also the possibility of ICC being next.
02:50.0
Again, not getting ahead of ourself. Alam din naman mga kameta.
02:53.0
If you look at a lot of my writings, I have been quite skeptical
02:56.0
about whether we can have progressive structural reforms under the return of the Marcoses.
03:02.0
I've been very honest about that. Sabi ko naman, we'll take things on a case-to-case basis sa foreign policy.
03:09.0
So far, okay ako. And when it comes to domestic affairs, of course, for me, it's a 50-50 issue.
03:14.0
Maharlika sovereign fund, I'm not so sure about that.
03:17.0
There's good counter-corruption kind of anti-corruption initiatives, so not sure about that.
03:22.0
But! But! This is it mga kameta.
03:26.0
Politics talaga. Sometimes, politics creates inadvertently positive outcomes.
03:33.0
And in this case, I'm not okay.
03:36.0
Perhaps it's a little bit, baka naman medyo advanced mag-isip pag sinabi ko na may undeclared alliance sa mga Marcoses.
03:44.0
Or at least BBM, not IME obviously.
03:46.0
At kasi si IME sabi niya, till the end, till the end of the world, kahit tayo na lang.
03:52.0
Ayan, ganoon na lang siya with Tatay Digong, di ba? So whatever na yan.
03:56.0
Kung si BBM mismo, it looks like all of these speculations and rumors and increasingly analysis about
04:03.0
how the Marcoses will turn out as potentially far more liberal than populist or authoritarian, it's bearing truth.
04:11.0
Of course, matagal po. May mga 4-5 years pa po tayo bago tayo magkakaroon ng sufficient data to really analyze the legacy of the Marcos Junior administration.
04:22.0
But yes, it's correct.
04:24.0
Some of the people in the comment section are mentioning.
04:27.0
And in fact, this is where I'm gonna give credit.
04:30.0
Gonna give credit to my ka-RNR and ka-RRM and RRL, RRLM.
04:37.0
Ayan, si Ronald Llamas na ngayon po ay kasama si Sen. Leila Dalima, no?
04:44.0
Kasama niya si Sen. Leila Dalima kaya nagpadala siya ng picture so that means mamayang gabi.
04:48.0
Ito, ito, ito, ito.
04:49.0
Ayan, happy, happy, happy, happy si ka-RNR.
04:54.0
Kasama si Sen. Leila Dalima, ayan.
04:57.0
In fairness, in fairness, the first person from whom I've heard na Liza Araneta could end up as a modernizing positive effect.
05:09.0
Again, without, I mean, she's not Franz Castro, she's not Riza Ontiveros, she's not Lenny Robredo, given na yan, alright?
05:16.0
Whatever that means.
05:17.0
But, the first person who mentioned na pwede maging positive influence in a modernizing effect.
05:23.0
And the first person that perhaps was the force behind yung mga internal clean-up.
05:27.0
Yung mga clowns na tinanggal sa BBM administration early on, let's just call it for what it is, diba?
05:33.0
Lahat ng mga yan, the idea was Liza Araneta was behind it.
05:37.0
And Liza Araneta, of course, my analysis naman was,
05:40.0
her, she's smart enough to realize once that the Marcoses are back, they shouldn't waste opportunity in a very specific sense.
05:49.0
Hindi dapat i-waste yung opportunity in terms of winning back.
05:52.0
Hindi dapat i-waste yung opportunity in terms of winning back.
05:53.0
The trust and confidence of growing number of people, including their critics, and also the broader international community.
06:01.0
That is extremely, extremely important.
06:03.0
And it looks like yung analysis na yan is very true.
06:05.0
Now, remember, of course, if you are, the new generation of Marcoses back in Malacanang,
06:13.0
you're also looking at the next generation.
06:14.0
And there's not one, but three sons, no?
06:18.0
We have to look at.
06:19.0
So, there was always an interest for the Marcoses.
06:22.0
To do it right this time, or at least comparatively right this time,
06:29.0
because this is also about the next generation.
06:31.0
This is about Sandro.
06:32.0
This is about the two other sons.
06:34.0
This is about making sure na yung stigma sa mga Marcoses will not be there the way it has been over the past three decades or so.
06:43.0
Diba yung analysis natin dun sa isang Nexus episode natin, sabi ko, parang medyo marinated eto si BBM in the sense that,
06:50.0
na-realize na in these three decades that they were out of Malacanang,
06:53.0
almost four decades that they were out of Malacanang,
06:55.0
na if ever you'll get a chance to come back again, play this smart, play this suave, no?
07:03.0
And so far, we're seeing that.
07:04.0
Now, again, again, again, again, again.
07:06.0
Mamaya, mamaya, mamaya, mamaya, may magsasabi na.
07:09.0
Ito si Aydarian Pro, BBM.
07:11.0
Again, mga ka-Solid North, high naman dyan.
07:14.0
Nasa Solid North na tayo.
07:15.0
Sorry, medyo nakikita nyo yung eye bags natin kasi nag-drive tayo last night.
07:20.0
Papunta dito sa ating mga kasama dyan, mga kapsat natin dito sa Baguio.
07:25.0
Of course, I have no illusions.
07:27.0
As I'm saying, hindi risaong de veros si BBM.
07:30.0
But because of itong hidwaan with the Dutertes,
07:35.0
and in a lot of ways, kasalanan ng mga Duterte yan because they never accepted the new reality and also geopolitical reality
07:43.0
na ang US, EU, all of these countries are supporting BBM big time.
07:48.0
So kung ikaw si BBM,
07:49.0
essentially supported by foreign Western powers,
07:52.0
and at the same time, you're also supported by or de facto supported by or not fully opposed by opposition forces,
08:00.0
if not even progressive forces.
08:02.0
So si Caronald Llamas, si Karen R., mentioned that there's also a potential behind the scenes
08:07.0
that actually the more progressive wing dyan ng opposition actually may also have their own understanding
08:14.0
with the current Speaker of the House, Martin Romaldes,
08:16.0
who, by the way, is, of course,
08:18.0
the de facto right-hand man of President Marcos Jr.
08:21.0
Now, before we go to the bigger picture,
08:23.0
because I think we have to discuss itong ICC,
08:25.0
pag-usapan muna natin itong mga latest na developments
08:30.0
kasi over the past 30 minutes, essentially, we're seeing all of these updates, mga kameta,
08:35.0
about the case of Sen. de Lima, the BBC News,
08:38.0
all of the international outlets are coming out.
08:40.0
But in fairness, I would say one of the first comprehensive reports that came out comes from Rappler.
08:45.0
Now, so Leyla de Lima,
08:47.0
Leyla de Lima gets bail, freedom soon.
08:50.0
Yun po yung title ng article na yan by Lian Buan.
08:54.0
In fairness kay Lian Buan, I mean, she's very progressive, very smart, very nice person.
09:01.0
Please continue to follow her online.
09:04.0
She has fantastic reports about human rights situations all around the world, including sa Gaza.
09:08.0
Including sa Gaza.
09:10.0
Now, the Muntinlupa Regional Trial Court, RTC Branch 206, nag-grant na po siya ng bail.
09:16.0
So again, just to be absolutely clear about this, hindi pa tapos yung legal fight, right?
09:22.0
So hindi pa na-prove na fully innocent siya.
09:25.0
Of course, alam natin, I've been saying this, alam nga nalala ninyo yung isang yan na medyo napaiyak na ako nun, di ba?
09:31.0
Na talagang alam natin, deep in our hearts, and based on conversation with everyone who knows a thing or two about justice
09:38.0
and our broken justice system, na that was a politically charged, that was a politically motivated charge against her.
09:45.0
Now, hindi pa tapos yung laban, but clearly, clearly, you know, courts and justice doesn't operate in a vacuum.
09:56.0
As much as we want to pretend that it operates in a vacuum, that's not how it works, right?
10:00.0
Now, let's look at the reality here, okay?
10:04.0
It looks like the tide is turning, and the tide is turning in favor of one side and definitely not in favor of Duterte's.
10:11.0
Criminal case number 17-167.
10:14.0
Ito pa yung last case niya, which is why the bail grant will set her free.
10:18.0
Kasi alam nyo, in fairness, legally speaking, she was able to clear already on two other separate cases.
10:24.0
Kasi parang may three trenches yata yung laban sa kanya, di ba?
10:27.0
So she was able to already clear the other ones. Pero ito, meron pang outstanding.
10:31.0
She was granted bail.
10:34.0
So hindi ganun kalayit niyong amount, 300,000 pesos, kasi the charges are still heavy.
10:38.0
But nevertheless, the judge, yung new judge right now, namang galing.
10:42.0
I just cleared with some people.
10:44.0
Who know the Philippine justice system, yung mga abogado natin, kaibigan, or very familiar with the best judges and the best courts in the country.
10:50.0
Sabi nila, matino, matino, maayos itong judge ngayon dito sa RTC Court na yan.
10:57.0
So kaya nga, we can be very optimistic that justice will be served.
11:04.0
And in this sense, innocence will be proven down the road, God willing.
11:08.0
Okay, so ito. So she was granted bail, 300,000 pesos were her co-accused.
11:13.0
Former Bureau of Corrections Director, Franklin Bukayo.
11:16.0
Former aides, Ronnie Dayan and Joanne L. Sanchez.
11:20.0
And alleged bad man, Jose Adriana Dera.
11:23.0
Kasi huwag natin kalimutan mga kameta, hindi lang si Leila de Lima po,
11:28.0
but there were multiple other people who were also accused of heinous crimes, drug-related crimes,
11:34.0
by the previous administration, based on very questionable evidence, based on very questionable witnesses.
11:40.0
Witnesses that were supposed to be drug-related.
11:42.0
They were supposed to be drug lords themselves.
11:44.0
I mean, this is a joke.
11:45.0
That was Banana Republic's nonsense, right?
11:48.0
So that Banana Republic nonsense is being exposed right now, alright?
11:53.0
So yung doon sa conspira, si fake news na ginawang charge sa kanya, right?
11:58.0
Ito po yung pag-iintindi natin.
12:00.0
I could be wrong, but ito yung pag-iintindi natin na nakikita natin.
12:03.0
Once nawala na yung isang administration na isang tatay, ito na, lumalabas na yung katotohanan.
12:08.0
Nag-withdraw na po yung mga dating witnesses na questionable.
12:11.0
Na kanilang questionable witness.
12:14.0
At saka charges against the lima.
12:17.0
So isang grupo po sila.
12:19.0
Kasama si Bukayo, kasama si Sanchez, kasama si Dayan.
12:22.0
Lahat sila yung nakaka-part, supposedly, ng isang drug-related operation, etc.
12:28.0
Okay, ito. Ito yung desisyon ng Korte.
12:30.0
At ito yung naging basehan nila to grant her bail.
12:33.0
Meaning, they do not see her as a flight risk.
12:36.0
They see sufficient basis to feel confident enough that, you know, where she...
12:40.0
to be given temporary freedom, that the course of justice will run its course.
12:45.0
Kasi kung tingin mo, ito ay drug lord, at nagahanap lang ng bail para tumakas na,
12:50.0
hindi mo bibigyan ng bail yan.
12:51.0
Or hindi mo bibigyan ng bail ng 300,000, bibigyan ng bail mo yan ng 300 million.
12:56.0
Alright? Okay, let's just put it that way.
12:58.0
Now, ito yung sinabi ng Korte.
13:00.0
Assessing, quote, the totality of the evidence presented by the prosecution.
13:09.0
The court is of the firm view and holds that accused Delima, Bukayo, Dayan, Sanchez, and Dera
13:14.0
should be allowed to post-bail as the prosecution was not able to discharge its burden of establishing
13:21.0
that the guilt of the said accused is strong.
13:24.0
Ha! Ulitin natin ha.
13:28.0
Ayan na, palpak na na naman.
13:30.0
Nag-fail po yung prosecution team, essentially tatay team, to prove na yung guilt po,
13:38.0
may strong basis for that. No?
13:40.0
So, the prosecution failed, no?
13:44.0
In proving yung guilt of the said accused,
13:49.0
that the basis for establishing the guilt of the said accused is strong.
13:54.0
So, if not strong, then it's weak. Right?
13:57.0
So, in short, weak. Medyo weak.
13:59.0
To put it mildly, etong argument ng prosecution.
14:03.0
Yung argument ng prosecution!
14:06.0
Now, yung prosecution is done with their presentation for this case,
14:09.0
at saka yung defense team will most likely file a demurrer,
14:13.0
meaning they will ask the court to dismiss the charged outright
14:16.0
without having to present evidence of their own.
14:18.0
So, yung team ni Leyla Delima, ang i-file nila dyan is sabihin nila,
14:23.0
eh wala palang kwenta ito, mga minas yung sabi ng kabila,
14:26.0
i-dismiss yun na yan.
14:27.0
Di na namin kailangan i-dignify yan.
14:32.0
Di na namin kailangan tapatan ng counter evidence yan.
14:34.0
Kasi ano na yan eh.
14:36.0
Bara-bara lang yan eh. Okay?
14:38.0
So, Delima was acquitted in the first two charges.
14:40.0
Kato lang sinabi natin.
14:43.0
So, yung patapos pa lang si tatay,
14:46.0
nag-turn ng tide.
14:48.0
But I think the decisive moves have happened
14:51.0
or the decisive change in tide has happened over the past year or so.
14:55.0
So, the former senator now.
14:57.0
So, this is the future, mga kameta.
14:58.0
The former senator will have to post bail before the court first
15:01.0
and her lawyers are at the moment rushing to make the court's cutoff.
15:03.0
So, this is 30 minutes ago.
15:05.0
Nakikipag-update po tayo sa mga contacts natin on the ground.
15:09.0
Kasama po si ka-RNR natin, si Ronald Llamas.
15:12.0
Mamaya kausapin po natin mamaya ang gabi.
15:14.0
Kasi may victory party pa daw mamaya.
15:17.0
So, after yung victory party nila,
15:19.0
makakausapin po natin si Ronald Llamas.
15:21.0
So, out of town kasi ako eh.
15:22.0
Otherwise, I would have gone to the court myself right now
15:24.0
and congratulated Senator Delima.
15:26.0
And I met actually Senator Delima a few years ago
15:30.0
while she was still in detention.
15:34.0
And let me tell you this.
15:36.0
Let me tell you this, mga kameta.
15:37.0
I was so impressed by her stringer and number of books.
15:44.0
On stoicism, Marcus Aurelius, Seneca, among others.
15:47.0
And then, our conversation went towards Mandela.
15:52.0
Mandela, Mandela, Mandela!
15:55.0
Okay, I'll talk about this again.
15:58.0
Let me give more details pa rin and then we'll go back to this.
16:01.0
Kasi medyo intense to eh.
16:04.0
Of course, yung team ni Layla Delima was really, really prepared for this.
16:08.0
Yung ibang kasama natin, kaibigan natin, sila.
16:11.0
Attorney Lavine, among others, were there.
16:13.0
So, sobrang confident ako talaga doon sa legal team niya.
16:16.0
It was just a matter of allowing the system of justice to take its course,
16:21.0
to take its proper course.
16:22.0
So, mukhang as things stand,
16:29.0
she will no longer spend,
16:32.0
even a single additional night dyan sa Camp Krame,
16:40.0
kung saan na-meet po natin si former Sen. Delima back in 2019.
16:48.0
So, of course, eto na tatapag-usapan natin yan.
16:51.0
One reason we're very optimistic dito sa arc of history,
16:58.0
and in a sense, for justice to prevail, mga kameta, is...
17:01.0
Don't worry, babalikan ko eh. Sorry, I just don't want to get emotional.
17:06.0
As it was, Judge Romeo Buenaventura...
17:10.0
Okay, alright. So may bagong judge na.
17:13.0
Ayan naman tayo eh.
17:16.0
Ayan, ayan, ayan. Okay.
17:17.0
So, good news was, once nagkaroon ng good, fair news...
17:20.0
Ay nako, mga kameta.
17:22.0
The course of justice, right?
17:24.0
The wheels of justice, right?
17:26.0
Will always turn much smoother
17:30.0
if the people in charge of discharging justice and overseeing court cases themselves
17:35.0
are people who we can be confident in.
17:37.0
And I just got confirmation from my contacts na,
17:39.0
this is a judge we can trust.
17:41.0
Not in terms of trust in terms of giving us the outcome we're looking for.
17:45.0
Trust in terms of, this is a judge who will look at the actual evidence,
17:54.0
...keep the, you know, the detention going, right?
18:01.0
Because, you know, first conspiracy theory would say,
18:03.0
trial detaining, no?
18:05.0
She was a pre-trial detainee, I'm sorry.
18:07.0
Until recently, right?
18:09.0
So, for a long time, wala pa nga trial eh.
18:12.0
Kasi nag-inhibit yung mga judges.
18:14.0
Half a dozen judges inhibited.
18:16.0
Either voluntarily on the...
18:20.0
parties and too availed of early retirement.
18:22.0
Blase talaga yan.
18:24.0
So, yun pala, you can keep on someone...
18:26.0
You can keep someone behind...
18:33.0
Iba lang yung mga judges.
18:34.0
Mag-inhibit lang sila.
18:35.0
Mag-distribute lang sila.
18:36.0
Mag-retire lang sila.
18:37.0
So, you keep on pushing the can down.
18:39.0
Sa kanya for a long time.
18:40.0
At yun nga yung interesting eh.
18:43.0
Ito, ito, ito, ito.
18:44.0
If talaga there was really clear, real evidence,
18:48.0
Which brings me to the other potential alternative.
18:50.0
Kung talaga may ebidensya na si Dalima was guilty of anything,
18:54.0
then malalaman natin nun pa, diba?
18:57.0
Eh, the previous administration had all the access they needed,
19:06.0
As we saw in the EJK cases and all.
19:08.0
But wala pa rin eh.
19:10.0
Sigurang ayaw nila madama eh.
19:12.0
Kasi sigurang alam nila politically charged ito, diba?
19:17.0
security aspects of this, mga kameta.
19:19.0
So, one of the most vocal critics of Duterte, of course,
19:22.0
is Leyla de Lima.
19:23.0
And now the question is, what's next?
19:26.0
Right? So, what's next?
19:28.0
we're cautiously optimistic na as things stand,
19:32.0
sete risparibus, right?
19:36.0
Malaki yung chance, no?
19:37.0
Malaki yung chance na all the cases will be...
19:39.0
that this third and final case will also be resolved
19:42.0
in favor of justice,
19:43.0
that her innocence will be established,
19:47.0
accordingly, ma-establish na kalokohan talaga.
19:49.0
Kalokohan talaga yung nangyari, diba?
19:51.0
Kalokohan talaga yung mga cases.
19:53.0
It also exposes the fundamental problems
19:55.0
dito sa political system natin
19:57.0
and justice system natin, mga kameta.
20:00.0
Which is, yun pala eh.
20:02.0
You can accuse a politician of something
20:04.0
because opposition siya or ayaw mo sa kanya.
20:06.0
And then, you can keep that person behind bars
20:08.0
for year after year after year
20:09.0
kahit wala kang evidence or anything
20:11.0
because you just keep on kicking the can down the road
20:13.0
or no judge wants to take up the issue
20:15.0
kasi alam nila nung kalokohan na nangyari dito.
20:20.0
Nakalaya po dahil wala talaga ebidensya
20:22.0
or basihan yung kabila.
20:24.0
At ngayon, medyo nabubuking na
20:26.0
na talagang politically charged and politically motivated
20:29.0
yung mga complaints laban sa dating Sen. Lela de Lima.
20:33.0
But of course, again, I...
20:36.0
We cannot say that 100%
20:38.0
in my hearts and hearts what is true
20:40.0
but we cannot say that 100%
20:41.0
we're 100% confident
20:42.0
until we allow the court to run its course.
20:45.0
And I'm cautiously optimistic,
20:47.0
almost 100% optimistic
20:49.0
that the final judgment,
20:51.0
the final judgment that will come out
20:53.0
on this final case laban kay de Lima
20:57.0
Will vindicate everyone.
20:59.0
Everyone who fought against
21:01.0
the complete adulterization,
21:04.0
the complete bastardization
21:06.0
of the Philippine political system
21:08.0
in that six years of populist authoritarian
21:11.0
mumbo-jumbo, bara-bara, tatay style,
21:15.0
tatay barangay geopolitics style politics na meron tayo.
21:19.0
I always said, mga kameta,
21:21.0
let me be absolutely clear about this, mga kameta.
21:23.0
Let me be absolutely, absolutely clear about this
21:24.0
because this is gonna take us to the next issue.
21:27.0
First, I have no illusions
21:30.0
about yung ating political system.
21:34.0
We still have huge problems with our country.
21:38.0
Even if this case will be resolved
21:39.0
as we hope it will be resolved,
21:41.0
meaning according to justice
21:42.0
and according to the weight of the evidence,
21:44.0
we still have a lot of problems.
21:46.0
Marami pa rin tayo.
21:47.0
We still have huge percentage
21:50.0
of people behind the bars right now
21:52.0
who are just pre-trial detainees.
21:54.0
So we have a justice system crisis.
21:56.0
We have one of the worst prison systems,
21:58.0
penitentiary system,
21:59.0
in terms of congestions of the prison systems,
22:01.0
in terms of conditions of prisoners.
22:03.0
We have one of the most...
22:04.0
At dito, my heart goes actually to our judges.
22:07.0
We have one of the most congested court systems.
22:10.0
Kawawa yung mga judges natin.
22:11.0
They have to handle what?
22:12.0
700 plus cases every year.
22:14.0
This is the data I saw in 2019, right?
22:18.0
There are just very few courts.
22:19.0
There are just very few courts
22:20.0
for so many people and so many cases, right?
22:23.0
So Sobrang undermanned,
22:25.0
underappreciated,
22:27.0
and under-equipped
22:29.0
and underfunded ang justice system natin.
22:31.0
So I have no illusions.
22:39.0
Now, even when I criticized
22:41.0
the previous administration,
22:43.0
I made it absolutely clear
22:45.0
that I understand
22:46.0
why Duterte was elected
22:49.0
I wrote a whole book about that
22:51.0
barely a year into Duterte's presidency
22:53.0
because that book was less about Duterte
22:55.0
because one year pa lang siya,
22:57.0
although I more or less predicted
22:58.0
where things are gonna go
22:59.0
on China, on foreign policy,
23:01.0
Unfortunately, I mean,
23:02.0
if you look at my book,
23:03.0
The Rise of Duterte,
23:04.0
the ending is, you know,
23:05.0
the Philippines has entered a twilight zone,
23:07.0
something like that.
23:08.0
So I was very, very worried
23:10.0
about where the country's going.
23:11.0
But I also had no illusions, mga kameta.
23:14.0
Ano yung mga conditions that gave birth
23:16.0
to a tatay style,
23:17.0
tatay style populismo.
23:20.0
Yung Dutertismo na yan
23:21.0
ay hindi galing out of nowhere.
23:24.0
Hindi yan galing sa Beijing.
23:26.0
We're gonna talk about conspiracy theories,
23:28.0
about the role of China, etc.
23:29.0
But that was a result of
23:32.0
decade after decade of the frustration
23:34.0
of the Filipino people
23:36.0
with the failure of
23:37.0
not only our justice system,
23:39.0
but also with the failure of our
23:41.0
supposedly democratic system.
23:43.0
So I absolutely have no illusions,
23:47.0
about the real structural problems
23:49.0
and challenges that
23:50.0
constantly give birth to problematic
23:52.0
presidents, problematic leaders,
23:54.0
and problematic decisions.
23:57.0
So that's why I'm saying,
23:58.0
you take a victory one at a time,
24:00.0
but at the same time,
24:01.0
you do not forget the fundamental problems
24:03.0
na meron tayo sa ating bansa.
24:05.0
Including and especially itong
24:07.0
problema sa justice system natin.
24:09.0
The reason why bumenta
24:12.0
yung tatay style of justice
24:14.0
is because nawala
24:17.0
or nawala ng kumpiyansa
24:18.0
yung ating mga kababayan
24:20.0
dyan sa ating justisya,
24:21.0
sa sistema ng ating justisya.
24:24.0
A former friend of mine
24:25.0
whose life and whose death
24:28.0
actually in one way or another
24:29.0
had to do something with
24:30.0
the injustice system in the Philippines,
24:31.0
si Carlos Aldran.
24:32.0
His legal predicaments
24:34.0
were really horrible.
24:37.0
He called it an injustice system,
24:39.0
not a justice system.
24:45.0
wala tayong ilusyon
24:47.0
dun sa conditions that gave birth
24:50.0
and his penal populism,
24:52.0
authoritarian populism.
24:53.0
But I also had no illusions whatsoever
24:57.0
about the disaster that
25:01.0
that supposed correction
25:04.0
Which brings me to
25:06.0
Marcos Jr. administration.
25:09.0
This is what's interesting right now.
25:11.0
That it looks like
25:12.0
a Marcos Jr. administration
25:18.0
or not so surprisingly
25:19.0
correcting itong mga excesses
25:23.0
of the response to the failure
25:26.0
of the very liberal administrations
25:28.0
that replace the Marcos regime.
25:30.0
I mean, this is the interesting thing, no?
25:32.0
So, the extra regime came into power
25:34.0
in order to correct
25:35.0
yung mistakes and horrors
25:36.0
of Marcos dictatorship.
25:38.0
And then the Duterte came into being
25:40.0
in order to correct supposedly
25:42.0
yung mga kakulangan ng mga
25:44.0
liberal reformist administrations.
25:47.0
But that also went dark and crazy.
25:50.0
But it's still popular
25:51.0
because people are still looking for
25:54.0
datu that will save the day.
25:56.0
Some sort of arbitrary solution
25:58.0
to very complex problems.
25:59.0
Because hindi naiintindihan na marami sa ating mga kabayan na
26:02.0
na public policy is not a joke.
26:04.0
Hindi natin naiintindihan na
26:08.0
sources of problems natin.
26:10.0
But that should not be an excuse for indecision.
26:12.0
So, Marcos Jr. comes in,
26:14.0
and many incorrectly think that
26:16.0
Marcos Jr. will be either of the two things
26:18.0
or a combination of two things.
26:20.0
And I had some debates with some of the
26:22.0
foreign journalists on that.
26:24.0
Maraming na-unfriend pa yata ako ng isang walang young yan.
26:26.0
Because yun nga eh,
26:28.0
shallong basa nila.
26:30.0
They put Sara, Marcos, BBM, Duterte
26:32.0
all in the same basket.
26:33.0
I said, no, no, no. BBM is different.
26:35.0
Again, not because I think BBM is
26:37.0
raison d'hiverse. No, he's not.
26:39.0
BBM is a Marcos Jr.
26:41.0
He has not apologized for the horrors of the dictatorship.
26:43.0
And he still glorifies
26:45.0
what his father did. Okay.
26:49.0
can you blame him? Because the justice system
26:51.0
never held them accountable for what happened.
26:53.0
And can you blame him because
26:55.0
people voted him into power
26:57.0
by huge margins, right?
26:59.0
And not only as president, he almost became
27:01.0
the vice president. He became a senator.
27:03.0
He was a governor. He was a congressman.
27:07.0
I'm not excusing it. I'm just explaining
27:09.0
why things are the way they are.
27:11.0
But the thing is this. As I said,
27:13.0
the expectation was
27:15.0
Marcos Jr. will be another
27:17.0
Marcos Sr. but with 21st century
27:19.0
characteristics. Kind of like a postmodern
27:21.0
dictator, right? Or
27:23.0
will be a Duterte 2.0. Meaning,
27:25.0
continue and push to its
27:27.0
logical limit the beginning
27:29.0
of Digong and Digong will not end
27:31.0
within six years. Digong will not end
27:33.0
because he's incompetent. Digong will not end
27:35.0
because, well, he's not at his sharpest.
27:37.0
And Digong will not end because
27:39.0
the last two to three years in office
27:41.0
by the pandemic, right?
27:43.0
So the Dutertismo project was
27:45.0
fundamentally unfinished, right?
27:47.0
So the question is what will happen with
27:49.0
the Dutertismo project?
27:51.0
So the expectation that Marcos Jr. will be
27:53.0
either a Marcos Sr. for the 21st century
27:55.0
or a Duterte 2.0,
28:01.0
Or at least so far became the case.
28:03.0
Because, Marcos Jr.,
28:07.0
happened with Marcos Jr., right?
28:09.0
So this is where my analysis comes in. And we're going to end
28:11.0
this point because we have to discuss, is ICC
28:13.0
against the Dutertes?
28:15.0
Oh, I mean, is that
28:17.0
next, alright? Okay. So three things
28:19.0
happened. The first thing that happened
28:21.0
is that Marcos Jr.
28:23.0
had a moment of reflection. Not
28:25.0
only during 2022. My contention
28:27.0
is Marcos Jr. and I'm
28:33.0
I'll do some anthropological
28:35.0
stuff. I'm working on a book now already
28:37.0
on the return of the Marcoses
28:39.0
and what this means. And it's not your typical book.
28:41.0
Right? It's not your typical Marcos book.
28:43.0
It's a book about the Philippines.
28:45.0
It's like a secret history
28:47.0
of the Philippines kind of book, right? And the
28:49.0
Marcoses are just one of the big players
28:51.0
or actors on this stage, which is the
28:53.0
Philippine history and drama of our politics.
28:55.0
Now, going back to this,
28:59.0
this is my reading,
29:01.0
Marcos Jr. had a moment of profound reflection
29:03.0
after his father's passing,
29:05.0
especially na sa Hawaii sila. Those exile
29:07.0
years were a moment of reflection and introspection.
29:09.0
And the failure of the
29:11.0
Marcoses to immediately reclaim
29:13.0
power once they returned to the Philippines
29:15.0
also just reinforced
29:17.0
this kind of a cautionary conflict
29:19.0
avoidant, more reflective side of them.
29:21.0
Marcos Jr. failed
29:23.0
when he ran for Senate first.
29:25.0
The mother failed to become president when she
29:27.0
ran for president first. And then
29:29.0
even Amy Marcos, she had failed attempts
29:31.0
at becoming a senator also. So,
29:33.0
nahirapan sila. And those
29:35.0
were in a way humbling moments for them.
29:39.0
what happened over the next two or three decades
29:41.0
is I think there was this understanding
29:43.0
by the Marcoses that the way forward
29:45.0
is to play it smart, to play it
29:47.0
suave, and to play it slow.
29:49.0
So, slow burn strategy. And that
29:51.0
strategy has served them very
29:53.0
well. That kind of reflective
29:55.0
conflict avoidant, safe,
29:57.0
sound suave. Safe, sound
29:59.0
suave has worked for
30:03.0
one of the things that
30:05.0
actually, four factors
30:09.0
if you look at it. Number two,
30:11.0
one of the things that perhaps even BBM himself
30:13.0
did not anticipate is how nice
30:15.0
the West will be to him.
30:17.0
No? Kasi kitang-kita mo
30:19.0
during election period, nung alam
30:21.0
niya mananalo na siya, medyo, you could see na
30:23.0
medyo hindi siya sure kung the United States
30:25.0
will be nice to him. I mean, of course,
30:27.0
Marcoses, court cases in the US,
30:31.0
Biden talking about
30:33.0
promotion of human rights,
30:35.0
democracy promotion, so on and so forth.
30:37.0
But, thanks to the China
30:39.0
element, and thanks to
30:41.0
the Western countries not wanting the
30:45.0
Philippines to once again become
30:47.0
a tatay republic,
30:49.0
thanks to that, sorry nakataya
30:51.0
ng konti. Thanks to that, the
30:53.0
West actually embraced Marcos
30:55.0
Jr. because of the strategic importance of the
30:57.0
Philippines and because of the scary precedence
30:59.0
of Duterte. And the growing influence
31:01.0
of China in the Philippines. So this is the
31:03.0
second factor. First factor,
31:05.0
was profound political reflection
31:07.0
beginning with almost
31:09.0
almost I could say
31:11.0
spiritual reflection that started in the Hawaii
31:13.0
years. This is late 1980s.
31:15.0
O, kapapanak pa lang
31:17.0
natin diyan nung time na yan.
31:19.0
So probably I was like 1 to 2 year old,
31:21.0
eto na, may mga reflection moment na si
31:25.0
Second, as I said, is
31:27.0
the full embrace of the West sa kanya.
31:29.0
So much so, within weeks of him
31:31.0
winning, you had Wendy Sherman,
31:33.0
the number 2 in the State Department Conference,
31:35.0
coming in and saying, don't worry, you have
31:37.0
sovereign immunity, you can visit America anytime,
31:39.0
you're more than welcome. And number 3,
31:41.0
and this is very important mga kameta,
31:43.0
is paradoxically,
31:45.0
the weakness of the opposition,
31:47.0
the liberal progressive opposition, actually
31:51.0
comfortable. In a sense that
31:53.0
had the opposition,
31:55.0
had the Never Marcos Movement been more
31:57.0
aggressive, I think medyo
31:59.0
magpapanikbotan si Marcos. And that
32:01.0
would have driven him more into the embrace of
32:03.0
Duterte, or would have forced him
32:05.0
to play the China card more aggressively.
32:07.0
So ironically, the
32:09.0
relative weakness or temporary weakness of
32:11.0
the opposition made Marcos
32:13.0
more open to, let's just say,
32:15.0
the Lisa Araneta school of
32:17.0
modernization, partial liberal reform.
32:19.0
And lastly, and I think this is
32:21.0
where you can see
32:25.0
was perhaps inevitable,
32:27.0
but the speed and velocity and
32:29.0
the intensity was
32:31.0
not necessarily a given,
32:33.0
ito yung mali ng mga Dutertes, especially
32:35.0
si Digong, right? Akala nila
32:37.0
sila pa rin yung OG.
32:39.0
Akala nila sila pa rin yung
32:43.0
But what they didn't realize is once
32:45.0
you're not in charge of the office of the presidency,
32:47.0
even if you're the vice president,
32:49.0
wala na eh, ibang usapan
32:53.0
And they also underestimated
32:55.0
how much Marcos is supported
32:57.0
by international partners
33:01.0
a lot of opposition
33:03.0
people who are quite unhappy still
33:05.0
with the Marcos legacy are unhappy with
33:07.0
lack of progressive reform.
33:09.0
We will more or less align
33:11.0
with Marcos Jr. because
33:15.0
foreign policy, a more patriotic
33:19.0
for his stance in the West Philippine
33:21.0
Sea. Now, pwede tayo mag-uusap
33:23.0
ng matagal whether itong West Philippine Sea issue
33:27.0
West Philippine Sea issue ay, you know, we are prepared for a war.
33:29.0
Okay, we can have a different discussion. But in fairness,
33:31.0
BBM got West Philippine Sea soil
33:33.0
so far kinda right, or at least
33:35.0
the signaling is right. And that's why you have
33:37.0
even, you know, people like
33:39.0
you know, Trillanes, you know, I mean,
33:41.0
super happy with what's happening under BBM. And I know
33:43.0
many, many people who are not open about it
33:45.0
but behind the scenes, ito yung mga
33:47.0
bumoto kay Lenny, nag-campaign for Lenny, they're
33:49.0
very, very happy about many things happening now,
33:51.0
right? Including what's happening to
33:53.0
the territories, but also what is the good things that is
33:55.0
happening in the West Philippine Sea. So,
33:57.0
in a very ironic turn
33:59.0
of events, Marcos Jr.
34:05.0
the corrections and changes
34:07.0
and this is where I'm gonna get controversial.
34:19.0
she would have pushed for many good reforms
34:21.0
but I doubt she would have been allowed
34:23.0
to, in a sense that the Congress
34:25.0
would have been more or less trapo
34:27.0
people, the Marcos and Duterte would have been together.
34:29.0
Kung natala si Marcos, di mas bitter.
34:31.0
You get what I'm saying? Parang
34:33.0
way, Marcos Jr. was always in a better
34:35.0
position to push for the correction
34:37.0
or corrective reforms
34:39.0
that had Lenny won,
34:41.0
I don't think she would have been able to implement
34:43.0
them as effectively. So, this is the
34:45.0
irony that is happening right now.
34:47.0
Again, I'm not saying this is because
34:49.0
fundamentally, Marcos Jr. is a progressive
34:51.0
liberal, whatever, no. But because of
34:53.0
a number of factors, the four
34:55.0
factors that I explained, we are where we are.
34:57.0
Now, things could still
34:59.0
change dramatically in the coming years,
35:01.0
things could change dramatically after meetings,
35:03.0
there could be discussions about constitutional change,
35:05.0
et cetera, but as of now,
35:07.0
things are moving in a certain direction that
35:09.0
I think many people will find very, very encouraging
35:11.0
unless you're in the Duterte China,
35:13.0
Duterte pro-China camp, sorry.
35:23.0
because logically,
35:25.0
with Laila de Lima more or less free,
35:29.0
with all the umbilical cord
35:33.0
with all the umbilical cord being severed,
35:35.0
in the echelons of power,
35:37.0
it's like your next logical step.
35:41.0
I'm semi-skeptical
35:45.0
immediately come next because first of all,
35:47.0
the ICC itself is dealing with many issues including
35:49.0
accusations of ethnic cleansing and mass
35:51.0
atrocities in the Middle East, you know which conflict
35:53.0
I'm talking about.
35:55.0
And the other one is,
35:59.0
at the end of the day, Marcos Jr. is still
36:01.0
a very cautious, sound,
36:05.0
burner type of guy. So,
36:07.0
do you want to go all in against Duterte
36:09.0
as early as now or you want to wait
36:11.0
until after midterms?
36:15.0
you think you should do it before midterms so that you're
36:17.0
so strong and dominant after midterms so that
36:19.0
Duterte is our history after 2025.
36:25.0
the big move will come because if ICC
36:27.0
comes in, that's it.
36:29.0
That's war. So, one thing
36:31.0
is one thing for UNITIM to implode
36:33.0
and it's another thing for there to be an open
36:35.0
declaration of war. So, if you're BBM, are you going to declare
36:37.0
that war before midterms or after midterms?
36:39.0
Now, that will depend on his calculation.
36:41.0
Whether he feels that
36:43.0
his coalition is in a position
36:45.0
to be so dominant in 2025 that
36:47.0
perhaps you can do it after.
36:49.0
I think stance of Ronald is
36:53.0
the momentum is there.
36:55.0
So, you strike it while it's hot.
36:59.0
So, that's what we're looking at.
37:01.0
Oh, chubby. How did I become chubby?
37:05.0
because of the look.
37:07.0
It's just close to the screen.
37:09.0
We're not chubby. Excuse me.
37:11.0
I thought we were choppy.
37:13.0
Anyway, I'll keep it there
37:15.0
because there'll be more discussions later on
37:17.0
and I need to visit my grandmother.
37:19.0
Our beloved grandmother.
37:21.0
That's why we came here.
37:23.0
So, I'll keep it there.
37:25.0
Thank you very much, Kameta.
37:27.0
Thank you very much to all
37:29.0
those who are supporting us.
37:31.0
Thank you for loving us.
37:33.0
I hope it continues.
37:35.0
These are the positive moves.
37:37.0
Although, ironically, of course, it's coming under Ed Jr.
37:39.0
On that note, so please keep the four
37:41.0
factors we set in mind.
37:43.0
And don't worry, I'll write a number of things on that.
37:45.0
So, things should go.
37:47.0
Should go good in a good direction.
37:49.0
Alright? On that note, thank you very much.
37:51.0
God bless and have a good day.
