MARCOS JR. REAL ECONOMIC RECORD: AN ANALYSIS
00:19.6
were victimized by that and
00:21.2
it sounds like you have many options. I switch from
00:25.4
to another conglomerate. Let's just hope
00:27.3
the post-paid of one conglomerate works
00:29.2
better. Okay, let's do this
00:31.3
I think nabigla kayo
00:33.2
natin na nagaanap ako ng PowerPoint but don't worry
00:35.4
we can just post your studies
00:39.0
and we can do properly next time hopefully when I'm
00:41.2
back in Manila or somewhere else
00:43.2
with a better internet so we can do that separately
00:45.0
but for the purpose of today so
00:46.7
just to recap our discussion kanina
00:48.7
I asked in very simple ways
00:50.8
what is the good, what is the bad, and what
00:53.2
is the ugly about the economic track record
00:55.3
of the current administration
00:56.5
and we had a little bit of a back and forth about
00:59.0
I mean ontological
01:00.8
almost. What is good, right?
01:02.7
Why should we even talk about good when there's
01:05.0
nothing good? And I think we agreed
01:09.0
pilitin, wag pilitin kung wala naman
01:10.9
talagang good. At the same time I think for
01:12.9
me it was important to
01:14.5
push back against politics or economics
01:17.1
of cynicism and at the same time also
01:18.6
look at really worst case scenarios
01:20.8
I mean you're looking at Argentina and Turkey
01:22.8
running inflation rates 80%, 100%
01:25.4
you know these are not
01:27.1
banana republics per se. I mean
01:28.9
Argentina and Turkey are one of the fastest growing
01:30.8
economies and yet inflation is horrible
01:32.7
in those countries. 10 times worse than the Philippines
01:34.9
Philippines is still the fastest growing
01:36.8
economy in the region. If I'm not
01:38.9
mistaken one reason we had this talk is because you
01:40.8
replied to a post of mine when I said
01:42.7
wow high growth, low quality
01:45.0
right? Which brings us really to the
01:46.9
bad and the ugly part. So when I say good
01:49.0
I was coming from that and I'm also coming from
01:50.8
the fact that we're growing fastest
01:52.8
in ASEAN in spite of
01:55.0
not having the best governance
01:56.8
you know which tells
01:58.8
you a lot about the resilience and
02:00.5
grittiness. I don't like the word resilience
02:02.7
in abuso ng mga trapo yan. Grittiness
02:04.6
and the hard work of
02:06.8
our kababayans abroad and in the Philippines
02:08.9
right? So I'm just doing a recap of
02:10.7
our previous episode which for
02:12.7
reasons that many will understand
02:14.7
in the Philippines was undercut
02:16.8
by logistical reasons. But now let's have
02:18.7
this conversation. Sonny
02:21.2
we were saying if you look at
02:24.7
three axes the Philippines is not doing
02:26.7
very well. One is in terms of food
02:28.8
which I think everyone can
02:30.9
agree upon including the surveys which
02:32.8
show that the president's having really
02:34.5
downward trajectory. Second one
02:36.8
is quality of employment. So it's one thing
02:38.8
for you to have an unemployment of I don't know
02:40.9
6-7% which is not as bad
02:42.9
as I don't know 40%
02:44.2
in other countries or 20%
02:46.7
in other countries. But quality matters
02:48.9
is this a, do you have security
02:50.9
of tenure? Do you have an
02:52.7
uncertainty that next month or next week?
02:54.8
Or baka purong contractualization lang yan diba?
02:57.2
And the third axis I was
02:58.8
really focused on which I think will set the tone
03:00.7
for really our final episode today which I think
03:02.6
is very important is productivity
03:04.5
growth and manufacturing. So
03:06.3
Sonny, can we go one by one?
03:08.6
Kamusta ang food inflation?
03:10.6
We are already in the bad and ugly part
03:12.5
obviously. Kamusta ang
03:14.3
employment and underemployment especially?
03:16.9
Quality of employment generation?
03:18.7
And third, kamusta ang productivity
03:20.3
growths? You know, let's
03:22.5
look at the numbers and
03:24.4
resibo. Maglabas tayo ng resibo
03:32.5
first to clarify,
03:34.6
it's always nice to have
03:38.7
like inflation and growth and
03:40.6
all of that. But syempre, sometimes
03:44.9
we're looking at matters. So alimbawa, dun sa
03:46.7
inflation. Of course, tama
03:48.7
ka naman. It's better to have lower inflation
03:50.9
than faster inflation.
03:52.8
Inflation did slow
04:00.4
October. I'm trying to look at
04:02.8
my figures now. 5.3%
04:04.7
lamang this year. So
04:06.6
slower inflation. But the thing is
04:08.7
there was core inflation.
04:11.3
Headline inflation, including
04:12.9
mga volatile food and energy
04:14.9
products, slow to 4.9%
04:18.9
So parang okay yun. But the thing is
04:20.6
Wait lang. Can we make a
04:22.9
distinction first between headline inflation and core
04:24.9
inflation just for people who are not familiar with it?
04:26.9
Because it depends on which basket.
04:28.8
of goods you're looking at before you can even
04:30.7
make an assessment about the situation, right?
04:32.5
I mean, pwede umakyat yung presya. I don't know
04:34.4
ng Toyota Rays or BMW
04:36.7
but that's not as
04:37.9
punchy in the gut as
04:40.6
tumaas yung presyo ng bigas
04:42.9
or ganun. So there are different ways
04:44.7
to measure actually increase in the prices
04:46.6
of goods. Kung baga
04:48.4
inflation. Can we make a quickly distinction between
04:50.5
headline inflation and core inflation? Just for
04:52.6
people who also have technical understanding of this.
04:56.7
Yung headline inflation,
04:57.9
has a whole basket of goods
04:59.8
supposedly representing lahat ng spending
05:01.6
ng average Filipino.
05:04.2
But because there are two
05:05.8
components that tend to be volatile sa kanyang
05:07.9
prices, energy prices and
05:09.9
food prices, so they have a separate
05:11.8
figure called core inflation. So alimbawa
05:15.7
the last data that came out, in October
05:17.7
2023, headline inflation
05:21.7
which is slower than I think
05:25.5
the previous year.
05:27.9
Nag-slow down siya. Pero
05:29.5
if you put, if you look at core
05:31.6
inflation, you take away the
05:33.7
food inflation and
05:35.7
the energy price inflation, it's actually
05:37.8
5.3% ang core inflation,
05:42.3
in the previous year.
05:43.7
So I think yung important lang dun is, headline
05:45.7
is everything we're spending on, more or less,
05:47.6
average Filipino. Core inflation,
05:49.8
you take away the volatile
05:51.3
products, energy,
05:55.9
Right. And in a sense, of course,
05:57.9
these volatile products are not also our fault.
05:59.8
Let's say war in Ukraine, war in the Middle East,
06:01.6
it has impact on energy prices.
06:03.9
So may konting excuse. I mean, konti
06:05.6
because we can also talk about oil deregulation,
06:08.4
you know, subsidies, etc.
06:09.6
But that's why you can look
06:11.7
at different measures and still it
06:13.7
looks like the picture is not that good, right?
06:16.1
So kahit balibalik
06:17.5
ta rin natin headline core inflation, it's not
06:19.6
really as good as we want. But as I
06:21.5
mentioned, it's not as bad as Argentina,
06:23.6
Turkey, and other countries, right? Which are
06:25.5
even more developed than us in certain sense.
06:27.9
Again, just to give perspective.
06:30.0
So, Sonny, I'm not giving an excuse to the
06:31.8
administration. I just want to give perspective
06:33.8
para hindi tayo masabihin ng purong nega lang
06:35.7
mga to. Now, let's go to the second part.
06:38.4
Employment numbers,
06:39.5
under employment numbers, quality of
06:41.5
new jobs being created.
06:46.2
The thing with stats,
06:47.7
it depends on the period you're looking
06:49.7
at. If you're comparing
06:51.3
the latest figures, which came out
06:53.6
for September 2023,
06:56.4
if you're looking at comparing
06:57.9
September 2023 to
07:02.6
despite the growth,
07:04.1
there was only an 83,000
07:07.7
employment. So 83,000
07:11.8
within the statistical margin of error. It's like
07:13.7
statistically insignificant. So
07:15.5
if you look at September
07:17.8
2023 from the year before,
07:20.2
despite the claimed growth, fastest
07:21.7
in the region, etc., etc.,
07:23.3
that's clearly jobless growth.
07:25.6
Okay? It gets worse
07:27.4
if you compare the monthly
07:29.5
employment in September
07:31.1
to the previous month in August.
07:33.6
Kasi despite the growth,
07:35.5
we actually had less work
07:37.5
in September compared to
07:39.6
August. So kung compared to the
07:41.6
last year, lumaki ng negligible
07:43.9
statistically insignificant 83,000.
07:46.2
If you compare from the previous
07:47.4
month, actually we lost
07:51.4
So sa amin, despite the growth,
07:53.8
we have less work.
07:57.4
less siya. It's like 47.7
07:59.7
million lang ang work compared to 48.1
08:01.7
million the month before.
08:03.9
So bumaba talaga siya.
08:05.5
Ngayon, that's only part of the problem.
08:07.8
So that's already part of the problem that
08:09.6
there's actually less work compared to the month
08:11.4
before. Virtually no additional
08:13.4
work compared to the year before.
08:15.5
But it gets worse.
08:17.3
Sorry, I'm a mega-fagot.
08:18.8
That is the quality of the work also, not only
08:21.3
the quantity of what's available.
08:24.3
If you look at the
08:25.4
quality of work naman, even among
08:29.7
by our last estimate, if you count
08:31.4
people who are creating work,
08:33.8
hindi siya sa huran eh.
08:35.8
Actually, about 45%
08:37.8
of work in the Philippines is not
08:43.6
work, it's self-employment,
08:46.3
it's working in family
08:47.7
farms, family businesses, basically
08:49.7
informal sector. Yung mga dumidiskarte
08:51.8
lamang. So, anong problema
08:53.9
dyan? If you have about
08:55.7
roughly 48 million Filipinos,
09:00.2
yung nasa informal work
09:01.3
is over 20 million. Informal
09:03.4
work, it's irregular work,
09:05.7
ang baba ng kita mo, you work a few
09:07.4
hours lamang, you're earning like really
09:11.5
pay yan. So, that's problematic
09:13.4
sa quality of work. Second thing,
09:15.5
even among those sa sa huran,
09:17.3
did you know, roughly,
09:19.9
the government claims by the
09:21.4
figures, it's about 24 million
09:25.6
workers in the private sector.
09:29.5
regular sila. Meaning, medyo may
09:31.3
regularity. There's, you know, like
09:35.5
I don't know, some sort of healthcare, etc.
09:37.5
No, ayun nga eh. Yun ang pointo eh.
09:39.5
May hindi rin eh.
09:40.6
It gets by the labor force sa sa huran.
09:46.0
but yung nasa formal establishments
09:47.7
na you have to assume, may ganyan
09:49.6
klaseng regular pay, may kontrata,
09:51.7
verbal or written, it's only
09:53.5
about 10 million.
09:55.3
Sobrang lie. Actually, about
09:56.7
a little bit over 9 million namang
09:58.7
nandun. So, even doon sa mga
10:01.0
sa huran, the majority,
10:05.9
yes, tumatagap sila
10:06.9
ng sahod, but without all the
10:08.7
protections sa labor code. And that's also
10:11.0
even among that roughly 10 million
10:13.2
na nasa formal establishments,
10:14.8
I mean, the DOLE has about, I think,
10:16.8
500 labor inspectors.
10:20.8
I think, randomly lang sa all the
10:22.8
establishments, maybe like 6,000 establishments
10:25.1
a year. So, you also
10:26.7
have to assume, you can't assume din
10:28.2
na even those regular establishments
10:30.4
get all their benefits, get all the
10:32.9
protections the labor code
10:34.6
produces. So, sa akin, that's so
10:36.5
important kasi we have a
10:38.6
super informal economy.
10:40.5
And I think that's part yung
10:41.8
advocacy mo. A non-industrialized
10:45.0
economy is never going
10:46.6
to be a formal economy. So, you don't have
10:48.5
the formal processes
10:50.3
involved in that, and all the whole infrastructure for
10:52.4
that. So, sa akin,
10:54.2
bottom line, in terms of the jobs,
10:56.7
we're not generating. In terms
10:58.6
of jobs, you're actually losing, may problem.
11:01.1
But even the jobs that are there,
11:03.1
there's such poor quality
11:04.5
jobs. It's gig economy.
11:06.4
It's gig economy, right? I mean,
11:08.4
I don't know. It's, you know, like, the posh version
11:10.5
is vlogging, like what we're doing, right?
11:12.7
There's no regularization, there's no
11:14.4
contract. Parang, kumaga, yun yung
11:16.5
konyong version, vlogging,
11:20.6
marami sa ating wabay, mayroon silang trabaho,
11:22.4
but, you know, the quality of the work, it's,
11:24.2
there's no certainty, there's no security
11:26.4
of tenure, there's no benefits, nothing.
11:28.7
And this is a condition for vast majority
11:30.6
of Filipino people in the workforce,
11:32.3
which tells you a lot about how backward the
11:34.4
Philippines is in terms of quality growth
11:36.4
generation. But, Sonny, you also mentioned
11:40.3
mumbo-jumbos that you can do in terms of
11:42.3
counting, right? Like, paano mo masabi
11:44.5
na isang tao may trabaho, di ba,
11:46.2
Sonny Africa? You can also
11:48.5
play a game around that, right?
11:50.1
The number of hours, the regularity,
11:52.8
you can play that to
11:54.4
push up the numbers of employment. So, don't
11:56.4
take statistics on the face value, look at the
11:58.3
methodology and how they measure
11:59.6
employment, for instance.
12:04.5
super good question, yan. Since April
12:06.4
2005, it's been a big pet peeve of
12:08.4
ours sa Ibon, eh. Kasi the government
12:10.0
changed their definition of
12:12.1
who counts as unemployed.
12:13.9
Aroya administration, to, naalala ko to.
12:17.1
Yeah, di ba, antagal na nun.
12:18.4
Actually, even, even
12:20.0
si President Aquino complained about that, eh.
12:22.5
Pero, nung presidente na siya, hindi na
12:24.2
pinindigan. But, anyway,
12:26.4
problema, since there was
12:28.5
a shift in methodology na
12:30.3
basically, it's not enough to not have
12:32.4
a job to be counted as unemployed.
12:34.7
Kailangan, you don't have a job,
12:37.2
plus, you're looking
12:38.4
for work in the last six months,
12:40.4
plus, at the drop of a hat, in the next
12:42.5
two weeks, pwede ka pumasok.
12:44.3
So, that sounds innocent. But the thing is,
12:46.6
when they put those two qualifications
12:48.6
in, had to have looked for work in the
12:50.4
last six months, should be able
12:52.4
to immediately enter work.
12:56.4
about two and a half to three million
12:58.1
jobless Filipinos weren't officially
13:00.5
counted as unemployed.
13:02.1
And that's still happening today.
13:03.6
So, sorry, let me put it this way. Hindi lang mahirap
13:06.4
maghanap ng trabaho sa Pilipinas,
13:08.5
mahirap din ma-qualify as unemployed
13:10.5
sa Pilipinas. You know, like, we're kind of...
13:12.2
Mahirap mabila na unemployed ka.
13:14.1
So, even yung talk about mag-unemployment
13:16.1
benefits tayo. Oh my God!
13:18.0
Si pinag-gobedo, hindi ka ma-unemployed, eh.
13:22.2
I'm not a facetious comment.
13:25.0
Kinumpay niya ng IBO na able
13:26.2
2005. Oh my God, I've been here for so long.
13:28.1
Anyway, kinumpay namin April 2005.
13:30.3
A couple of weeks later, then NSCD
13:32.2
came out with a blog saying,
13:34.4
tama lang na people like that who haven't been
13:36.1
looking for work, shouldn't be counted as unemployed
13:38.3
kasi tamad sila. So, screenshot
13:40.4
ko yan. And that's, I think,
13:42.5
that's glaring. May problema
13:44.5
ko na ito. Gaslighting.
13:46.2
Alam ko may isang admin dyan na napakagaling
13:48.7
sa ganyan. Gaslighting, victim blaming.
13:52.4
Yeah. So, ayun. Sa amin,
13:54.5
that matters so much because also,
13:56.2
explains kung bakit, despite
13:58.0
the decrease in working
14:02.0
September from the month before,
14:04.0
that also explains kung bakit the unemployment figure
14:06.2
actually fell to 4.4%.
14:08.7
So, sa amin, again,
14:10.6
you know, sabi nga nila statistics.
14:11.9
Medyo mambo-jambo yan, no?
14:13.6
But before we go to the number three, which is really
14:15.8
my pet peeve, which is productivity manufacturing,
14:18.4
let's talk about the first one because may version
14:20.3
din tayo ng victim blaming.
14:21.9
Ay, tumahas ang presyo ng bigas.
14:23.9
Walang problema. Bawasan natin ng rice.
14:26.2
See, lifestyle tayo. Yung mga ganyan.
14:28.5
Yung mga comments, diba?
14:30.2
Yung mga ganyang comments. So,
14:32.1
my goodness. I mean, just the
14:33.7
deracinated nature of some of the people
14:36.2
in government sometimes, the comments they make,
14:38.3
it's just mind-boggling.
14:39.8
Hindi nga kayo magaling na technocrat, gaslighter
14:42.4
pa kayo, victim blaming.
14:44.0
I mean, I have, I cut my rice,
14:46.5
diba? I cut my rice.
14:48.1
But you have to have steak. You have to have meat.
14:50.0
You have to have healthy alternatives
14:52.2
to carbohydrates. But how can you afford
14:54.1
mas mahal pa sa bigas yung,
14:55.6
you know what I'm saying? Like, just the insensitivity
14:57.7
of it. These people don't seem to know anything.
14:59.9
I don't think they even grocery
15:01.1
like you and I, right? Like, forget about palengke.
15:03.9
So, yun lang, bro. I mean, like,
15:05.6
just the two, we already see gaslighting
15:07.9
as one of their ways out. But let's
15:09.6
go perhaps to the most important one.
15:12.0
Productivity growth, manufacturing, because
15:13.7
the manufacturing imperative
15:15.9
as Danny Roderick put it, who's, by the way,
15:17.8
Turkish-American economist, right?
15:19.6
So, let's talk about this. Kamusta
15:21.7
ang productivity growth in
15:23.4
manufacturing sector and agricultural
15:25.6
Which my co-columnist,
15:27.5
Chelito Habito, also always talks about
15:29.1
in his column in the Philippine Dailing Corps.
15:31.5
And, of course, former NEDA chief. Nag-trabaho ka ba
15:33.4
kay Chelito? Kanino ka nag-trabaho sa NEDA noon?
15:38.6
Parang ayaw mo na sabihin.
15:39.9
Parang ayaw mo na sabihin.
15:45.4
because hindi ko gusto yung takot
15:49.1
I still have friends in NEDA, but
15:51.1
na-dissolution talaga ako. I mean, I came from university.
15:53.2
You want to develop and work, where do you go?
15:55.6
But after 11 months, sabi ko, oh my God,
15:59.1
Malabot na malabot to. But again, for fairness,
16:01.7
people can check on our podcast, may interview
16:03.4
with Arsenio Balisakan,
16:05.4
Dr. Balisakan, of course, to get the other side of the
16:07.5
things. Fair naman ako ah, interview all sides.
16:09.3
Parvati Guru. Galing siya. Yeah, exactly.
16:11.4
Of course, ka-Ilocano ko yan, kaya
16:13.2
bias kami. I'm kidding.
16:15.1
That's speaking up naman.
16:17.2
Sunny, let's talk about this. Number 3,
16:19.3
productivity. Kamusta naman ang productivity?
16:24.6
Sorry, mamang tutupo.
16:25.6
I think it's so important to look at the
16:27.9
unemployment figures and to look
16:29.8
at the quality of work kasi
16:31.3
that explains why there are more
16:33.2
Filipinos declaring themselves as poor now
16:35.8
compared to a year ago. And that's so
16:37.6
important eh. You can't talk about
16:39.6
growth, you can't talk about foreign investment,
16:41.5
you can't talk about investor interest
16:43.7
if there are a million more
16:45.7
poor Filipino families compared to
16:47.8
say, the middle of 2022.
16:49.7
From 12.2 million, according to
16:51.7
SWS, nag-13.2 million na yan.
16:53.8
And that matters kasi
16:55.6
para saan pa yung growth e ba? Para saan pa yung
16:57.4
investment? Para saan pa yung pinigmamalaki na
16:59.2
all the competitiveness? So, I sort of wanna add that
17:01.4
kasi that fills in the
17:03.2
that's the last bit of the puzzle of
17:05.4
why people are suffering right
17:07.4
now because they don't have jobs. Pero kung sa
17:09.3
productivity, okay,
17:11.3
sa to'o lang, productivity has been
17:13.3
increasing sa manufacturing.
17:15.9
Yes, I saw that. Kaya nga, I wanted
17:17.6
to get your understanding.
17:19.1
The way productivity is measured,
17:27.6
Now, the thing is, did you know
17:29.7
nabawasan ng employment
17:31.3
in manufacturing? So, parang
17:35.5
mathematically. Lots of signs of
17:37.3
de-industry. Right? Kasi the denominator
17:39.4
kung less. Hindi, ganun kasi nila.
17:41.1
Exactly. You bring that one down, tatas
17:43.4
yung isaya. Exactly.
17:47.4
a year before, there's almost 900,000
17:49.6
less jobs in manufacturing.
17:52.1
So, of course, productivity
17:53.4
is going to increase.
17:55.6
Then, from the year, from the month before,
17:57.5
nag-decline din siya. So, actually, productivity
17:59.6
is not the right thing to look at if you want to look at
18:01.6
industrialization. It's the size of the
18:03.7
manufacturing sector. And I think,
18:05.9
yung nga, yung reaction ko dun sa ano mo,
18:08.5
negative talaga ako eh.
18:10.3
Nag-react ako dun sa tweet mo
18:11.8
kasi it was so surprising
18:13.7
and I double-checked
18:15.7
to make sure ang tama sabihin ko eh.
18:18.3
Manufacturing in the third quarter
18:23.8
which is the lowest since,
18:27.9
pre-Filipino first,
18:29.7
it's been declining since
18:31.2
more or less about the late 1970s.
18:34.4
That's awful talaga.
18:35.8
And sa amin, that's what matters eh
18:38.0
because we don't have a healthy manufacturing
18:40.0
sector with all the upstream,
18:42.1
downstream linkages, with all the
18:46.0
the intrinsic improvements
18:47.2
in technology, in terms of
18:50.0
the capacity of managing that kind of
18:51.8
economy, the formality of having all
18:54.1
the interlinks from the raw material,
18:55.6
all the way down to the
18:56.8
putting it together and then selling it,
18:59.3
maybe even going abroad,
19:00.7
you will always have an informal economy.
19:02.9
There's no other way to have a formal economy
19:05.3
than through a healthy, grounded
19:07.3
industrial process.
19:10.0
But the thing is,
19:11.0
ito yung nakaka-inis sa amin.
19:23.7
Trivia lang, di ba?
19:25.6
Hindi, more than the medium and high-technology
19:27.6
exports of South Korea.
19:30.6
In South Korea, mga 35% lamang ang
19:32.7
medium and high-technology exports nila.
19:34.7
Even the US, about 25-30% lamang.
19:37.7
I like the comparative, yeah, yeah.
19:39.0
So, according to a certain metric,
19:40.3
if you look at Philippine exports,
19:43.3
parang, wow, we're a
19:45.8
high-technology exporting superpower.
19:48.8
The problem is, it's not Filipino.
19:51.5
They come from export processing zones,
19:53.5
they come from the technology manufacturers based in
19:55.5
export processing zones.
19:56.5
They're not actually even technology-intensive.
19:58.5
It's mainly a bit of testing,
20:00.5
a bit of assembly.
20:02.5
And ito ang makalimutan eh,
20:06.5
80-90% of the inputs of all these technology exports
20:12.5
are actually imported.
20:13.5
So literally, our value added is,
20:15.5
we're like putting it together,
20:16.5
putting it into boxes if it's a final product.
20:19.5
And I think that matters so much kasi
20:22.5
statistics can deceive eh.
20:24.5
And one of the most deceiving things
20:25.5
about statistics now,
20:26.5
even the size of the manufacturing sector,
20:28.5
one, it doesn't reflect your industrial base.
20:31.5
In U.S. sa limbawa,
20:32.5
after like four decades of globalization,
20:34.5
the U.S. spread out their industrial base globally eh.
20:38.5
Like Apple, di ba?
20:40.5
Apple high-tech, baka lamang manufacturing plants sa U.S.
20:42.5
It's in China, it's in Taiwan.
20:44.5
So the thing is, if you look at
20:46.5
the U.S. industrial statistics,
20:48.5
parang de-industrialized sila.
20:50.5
But it's only half the story.
20:52.5
It just says they're not in the U.S.
20:54.5
because they have their super long supply chains
20:57.5
spread out across the world.
20:59.5
Pero may flip side din yon.
21:00.5
It also means, again,
21:02.5
nakakanta nag-Philippines,
21:07.5
manufacturing investments in our economic zones,
21:10.5
we're all, well not all,
21:12.5
about 70% of our manufacturing is,
21:17.5
So, nabobloat actually yung manufacturing figures natin.
21:23.5
it's actually bloated by non-Filipino manufacturers.
21:26.5
And the thing is,
21:27.5
that's so important to grasp kasi
21:29.5
problematik na nga na-limit ang manufacturing sector natin
21:33.5
Even more problematic,
21:34.5
about 60-70% for manufacturing sector
21:37.5
is not even Filipino.
21:39.5
It's like disconnected from the rest of the economy.
21:41.5
I mean, you can easily see that in the import numbers.
21:47.5
Ang laki ng import natin ang mga semi-contractors,
21:50.5
intermediate goods,
21:51.5
and then malaki rin yung export na konting mas malaki.
21:54.5
So, you can easily see in the numbers na
21:56.5
konti lang in-add natin dun sa in-import natin.
21:58.5
So, you have to look at the entire trade linkages flow.
22:03.5
I think we're already anticipating the next episode
22:05.5
on industrial policy.
22:06.5
But I want to keep it clear.
22:08.5
If I could add a fourth element,
22:10.5
which is the favorite of performative commercial diplomacy,
22:14.5
yung foreign direct investment pledges, right?
22:17.5
So, supposedly 80 billion dollars of FDI pledges
22:20.5
ang nakuha ng ating Pangulo
22:22.5
in his first 8 months, 10 months in office.
22:25.5
But actually, FDI went down, right?
22:28.5
Over the past year.
22:29.5
I mean, some of the numbers are crazy.
22:31.5
Close to 30% drop,
22:32.5
depending on which quarters you're looking at
22:34.5
and which period.
22:35.5
So, even on the FDI front,
22:37.5
things are not looking good
22:38.5
because the investors,
22:39.5
hindi sila mapapadala sa magandang speech lang.
22:42.5
Hindi sila makonvince na
22:43.5
porke hindi na si Digong Presidente maganda ng Pilipinas.
22:46.5
Nag-research po sila.
22:47.5
Hindi sila nadadala sa mga gandang usapan lang, diba?
22:51.5
You need to do more
22:52.5
than just going to the World Economic Forum.
22:55.5
You wanna say something?
22:56.5
Pwede mo mag-comment siya?
22:58.5
Super, I'm super itching kasi
23:00.5
we hate that FDI metric eh.
23:02.5
I mean, we can benefit from FDI.
23:05.5
But just because there's FDI,
23:06.5
does it mean we're benefiting?
23:08.5
Trivet na lang, uli.
23:11.5
Meso, there's a share of GDP.
23:13.5
Yung foreign direct investment
23:15.5
in the Philippine economy right now
23:17.5
is about 23 or 24 percent.
23:20.5
Equivalent to 23, 24 percent of GDP.
23:23.5
And there's a huge increase over the last four decades.
23:28.5
yung period na economic take-off
23:29.5
ng South Korea, Taiwan, and China,
23:32.5
FDI as a share of GDP sa kanila
23:35.5
was 1 percent, 2 percent, 3 percent, 4 percent.
23:38.5
Hindi yung South Korean-Taiwan by the 80s.
23:40.5
It was more tech transfer.
23:44.5
Yeah, I know what you're saying.
23:46.5
Or tech stealing.
23:49.5
Oh yeah, tech espionage.
23:51.5
Yeah, corporate espionage.
23:55.5
Yeah, ang mabait mo,
23:58.5
enforced transfer.
23:59.5
Mas sakin, that's so important eh.
24:02.5
I have a hard time complaining about less investment.
24:05.5
Kasi it's not about
24:06.5
less investment is better,
24:07.5
less investment more.
24:08.5
It's about ano nakuha natin
24:10.5
with what investments there,
24:11.5
whether malaki or hindi.
24:13.5
And super good example sa amin,
24:15.5
how South Korea, Taiwan, China,
24:18.5
the last great industrializers
24:20.5
in the last 30-40 years,
24:22.5
they had such a small reliance on FDI,
24:25.5
they focused on building domestic capacity.
24:28.5
unless our economic managers,
24:30.5
unless the public
24:31.5
gets over this obsession with FDI
24:33.5
as a metric of success,
24:34.5
we're not gonna treat FDI
24:36.5
the way it should be treated,
24:37.5
which is contributing to national economy,
24:39.5
not just giving to them.
24:40.5
Last point na lang,
24:41.5
kasi hindi talaga ako sa kanila eh.
24:44.5
Intel was in the Philippines for about 35 years.
24:47.5
Their second overseas plant
24:48.5
was in the Philippines after Malaysia.
24:52.5
$1.5 billion in investments sa Philippines,
24:55.5
the biggest foreign investor at that time,
24:57.5
exporting at their peak
24:58.5
about $5, almost $6 billion
25:01.5
worth of semiconductor exports.
25:03.5
When they packed up in 2009,
25:08.5
what semblance or what shadow
25:11.5
of semiconductor capacity did we have?
25:16.5
they had all the nice figures,
25:17.5
the investment coming in,
25:19.5
the exports going out,
25:20.5
even the jobs being created,
25:21.5
parang 3 or 4 thousand jobs sila.
25:24.5
But when they left,
25:25.5
they left nothing behind.
25:27.5
that's so important na may lesson na tayo eh.
25:33.5
Kaya nga parang ano lang,
25:36.5
I know you're excited
25:37.5
but let's keep it for a different episode.
25:38.5
In fact, there's a term for that
25:39.5
by Ushihara Konyo,
25:40.5
the Japanese economist.
25:41.5
He called it technology-less industrialization
25:43.5
because you're over-relying on FDI
25:45.5
and just assembling what's coming out.
25:47.5
We can discuss that.
25:48.5
So I'm keeping the ammunition dry for that.
25:50.5
Now, let me go to...
25:53.5
No, no, it's okay.
25:54.5
So I think this episode is essentially
25:55.5
the economic track record under Marcos.
25:58.5
So let's have a short episode on
26:00.5
what's wrong with the...
26:02.5
What is the role of technocrats in the Philippines?
26:05.5
Because we usually let them scot-free.
26:07.5
So I want to have a discussion on that
26:08.5
because I think that will perfectly set the tone
26:10.5
for the discussion
26:11.5
on what should be an industrial policy strategy
26:13.5
for the Philippines.
26:14.5
Thank you very much, Sonny.
26:15.5
I really appreciate that.
26:16.5
Thank you very much.
