01:40.2
Dahil meron na rin tayong mga negative experiences during the Clark-Subic days na ayaw nating maulit.
01:47.5
So based on those historic lessons, gusto natin maging circumspect yung presidente.
01:54.3
Huwag naman masobrahan. Okay na niyayakap niya yung mundo at hindi siya humihingi lang ng tulong dahil sabi nga natin, hindi lang ito usapin ng ating West Philippine Sea.
02:08.2
Usapin dito ng freedom of navigation in one of the most important waterways in the world.
02:13.4
Gusto natin magsama-sama tayo dyan. Ibang usapin pa yung Taiwan. Wala tayong unity dyan.
02:21.8
Pero baka kasi madrag siya dun sa Taiwan issue, dito sa ganitong klaseng terrain na baka hindi pa niya kabisado.
02:33.7
Doon lang naman natin siya winawarningan.
02:37.5
Foreign policy is not that simple. May mga landmines.
02:43.9
You might get dragged into the deep water.
02:45.6
Hindi ko naman sinasabi na mas magaling tayo sa kanya. Yung Heidarian, mas magaling.
02:51.8
Yung Llamas, hindi masyado.
02:54.2
Mami na si Harry Roque.
02:56.0
So pakinggan niya yung Heidarian sa mga advice niya na be more circumspect, be careful.
03:02.6
Lalo na first year mo pa lang.
03:05.3
Tapos maraming mga powers at play here at maraming mga landmines at saka mga traps na baka hindi mo manotice, nakatuntong ka na.
03:19.2
Yun lang yung sinasabi natin.
03:21.0
Pero all in all, balance sheet, it's positive.
03:30.5
At makinig siya dun sa geopolitical expert na RH.
03:37.0
But Ronald, just to be clear, of course Marcos Jr. has information that you and I do not have.
03:43.1
So just to be humble about it, we're making this based on our historical understanding of how the alliance could go wrong.
03:49.1
But maybe BBM has an information.
03:51.0
We have information about U.S. reassurances na I and Ronald are not privy to or even if we were privy to perhaps we could not share.
03:57.2
So I'll give him benefit of the doubt but I'm also not sure I want to give him benefit of the doubt.
04:03.0
Wala naman tayong judgment eh.
04:06.0
Kinakuan lang natin.
04:07.4
Kaya nga ang ginamit kong term circumspect.
04:10.4
Maging circumspect lang siya at learn from the lesson of the past para manabigate niya itong delicate terrain of the future.
04:19.6
Yun lang mga sinasabi natin.
04:22.2
I'm not trying to wax philosophical.
04:25.2
Pero the tensions are all here.
04:30.3
And the forces, contending forces are at its other throat almost.
04:37.0
So siya as the president, head of state of a country literally in the belly of the beast.
04:47.6
Anong gagawin niya na hindi naman tayo mapahamak?
04:51.0
Hindi naman mapahamak yung ating bansa.
04:54.1
Yun yung dapat bahagi ng kanyang circumspection.
04:58.7
Because the superpowers have their own agenda.
05:01.7
Once in a while those agenda will jibe with ours.
05:05.7
But not all the times.
05:07.4
So yun yung sinasabi natin na pag-ingatan ng ating presidente.
05:14.2
So kanina lang I just moderated a panel by five ambassadors of our key partners.
05:21.0
Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, wala yung Japan but nandiyan yung US, etc., EU, whatever.
05:28.0
I'm sure ikaw din ang devil's advocate doon.
05:31.0
Yeah, and I pushed them.
05:32.0
Medyo mapulit ang ginawa kasi siya.
05:34.0
My point naman kasi, leloy.
05:37.0
Ba't ka naging leloy, Ronald?
05:39.0
My point kasi there, Ronald, is there are certain for me red lines we have to avoid.
05:46.0
One is over-dependence on the United States.
05:49.0
Second is allowing ourselves to be judged.
05:49.9
Second is allowing ourselves to be judged.
05:50.8
Be just an instrument of American policy towards Taiwan, Japan.
05:53.8
Parang ano lang tayo.
05:55.8
Something less than Robin to Batman.
05:57.7
Kasi Robin is ano eh.
05:59.8
Di Robin na ook to, Robin is Japan, right?
06:02.8
So parang we want to be at least a flash in the Justice League.
06:06.3
Huwag naman sana something less than Robin pa or butler lang.
06:09.8
Yung butler ni Batman.
06:10.8
Like that, right?
06:11.8
And the other thing is, of course, given na yan, yung constitutionally speaking, dapat, you know, constitutionally speaking—
06:18.8
Renounce war as an instrument of foreign policy.
06:19.8
Renounce war as an instrument of foreign policy.
06:20.8
So Ronald, for you, what are the red lines here? And then next we can discuss what should be done to mitigate those potential crossing of those red lines. Ano yung red lines sa'yo, Ronald? So I kind of shared my red lines here.
06:35.7
Well, yung mga obvious in the past, halimbawa, yung ating constitutional provision na walang pupunta sa ating territory na mga battleships or submarines carrying nuclear weapons.
06:51.8
Dati ang sinasabi nila dyan, neither confirm nor deny. Hindi pwedeng excuse yun. Diba dapat may transparency? Dahil lalo na na ganito ka-tense yung mga pangyayari. Ganito ka-volatile yung sitwasyon.
07:05.1
So yun yung isa. Ikalawa, itong EDCA, i-implement talaga natin yung rule na ito is within the framework of visiting forces. There is nothing permanent. And the one in control of this basis is still the Department of National Defense and the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
07:24.3
Dahil yung fine print, minsan nandoon yung double talk. So kailangan malinaw yan. At ikatlo, this should be an improvement.
07:35.1
Baka mamaya magkaroon na naman dyan ng mga incidents ng halimbawa murder or rape or etc. Tapos this house of cards will collapse. Dahil hindi pala malinaw yun sa mga agreements. Unless ito yung agreement with Australia na malinaw yung judicial rules etc.
07:55.4
So yun yung sinasabi ko na just part of it.
08:05.1
At saka sa Isabela na kayang umabot doon sa 100 kilometers boundary natin with Taiwan.
08:13.6
So kung talaga yung misa, then de facto, without admitting it, sumasali tayo sa Taiwan issue. So yan yung mga red lines na dapat conscious tayo. Ang problema, minsan hindi pinapaalam eh. So how do we know about? So mahalaga rin yung transparency.
08:32.8
May kasaysayan ang Amerika.
08:35.1
Even their accusations na nagda-dump sila ng radioactive waste, yung ecological damage. So alam ko marami dito ng followers natin, hate na hate nila yung China. So parang gusto nila US ka agad. But what they're saying is that that's not a national interest way of thinking. You have to always look at the Filipino interest and not jump into one camp because ayaw mo sa kabila.
08:55.9
Kaya nga kami ng incident nung panahon, nung first year ni Pinoy eh. Because we discovered a canister sa Fort Magsaysay na nakalagay ay galing sa US. So pinapasoli namin sa US yan dahil ano ba naman yan? Biological weapon, etc. Chemical weapon. So sabi namin, bibigay namin sa inyo, kayo na bahala na isoli yan.
09:20.8
Sabi ng US, sabi ng US, bawal sa US na magpasok ng...
09:25.9
Biological or chemical weapon. Ang sabi ni Pinoy, teka teka, hindi naman sabi nang galing to, nang galing sa inyo ito. Ibig sabihin galing sa inyo, dinala nyo rito, tapos hindi pwedeng isoli. Sabi nila, hindi. So for almost 6-8 months, hindi nag-uusap si Pinoy at saka yung US ambassador, si Harry Thomas. Because of that...
09:46.4
That's what I'm saying Ronald, you and I know na hindi inosente itong superpower na...
09:50.5
Yun ang sinasabi natin na it has to be two-way.
09:55.9
Tutulungan natin ang isa't isa, pero ano naman, hindi naman tayo aliping nagigilid. Tayo naman ay dapat junior partner. Junior partner. Okay lang na Spider-Man o kaya The Flash. Basta huwag naman Robin lang.
10:14.5
Yun nga eh, Robin to Batman.
10:18.4
Sige, on the latter part of this episode, let's also discuss this. So kanina kausap din natin yung mga ibang aliado natin. Kasi my position Ronald is, ayoko maging...
10:25.9
Sana naman mag-invest din kayo dito. So we saw some good news na potentially American semiconductor industry may finally consider the Philippines.
10:35.8
Something we have been discussing in our industrial strategy podcast. The European Union and also Britain are also looking at investments in the green energy infrastructure.
10:47.2
The same with the Australians. And then with the Canadians, hopefully they'll also move in that direction kasi mostly mining company yung mga Canadians.
10:55.9
So when you think about that, do you think that we're moving in the right direction with other countries coming in? And Japan, obviously, Japan is doing good.
11:02.8
Subway, infrastructure, Mindanao peace process, I'm very happy with what Japan is doing. And by the way, just the news, kanina sinabi ng ambassador ng Canada, they're also looking at the VFA style deal with us.
11:13.9
So potentially Japan and Canada could be the next VFA partners of the Philippines. So I'm just saying, interesting yun kasi kausap ko sila kanina, hindi ko alam kung may video copy pa, but they recorded kanina.
11:25.9
These are very good possibilities. Let's give credit where credit is due. These are very good possibilities opened by the government. But this will remain possibilities unless we improve our comparative advantage.
11:41.7
Kala niya, may iwan niya sa MOU. Kung yung price of electricity mo is the most expensive in the region. Kung yung corruption mo is one of the worst in the region. Kung yung education system mo is...
11:55.9
Learning poverty mo is 90% compared to other nations. So kung yung infrastructure mo ay walang development, then our comparative advantage. Eventually, bottom line, they will have second, third, fourth thoughts to enter. Kahit optimistic sila sa meeting with the president, pag nagpadala na sila ng advance team dito, titignan lahat yung ating comparative advantage,
12:24.2
babalik sila roon. Because it's about earnings. It's about profit margins. Hindi naman ang ginagawa nito purely out of altruism, out of geopolitics. May malaking bahagi niyan ay paano ba sila kikita. It's about profit margins also. So malaking bahagi ang profit margin, yung ating comparative advantage.
12:46.8
Alam mo yan, nakabisado mo yan, Richard, as part of your geopolitical framework.
12:52.7
But Ronald, comparative advantage can be created with industrial policy. That's the whole point. Korea had not been building in 1950.
13:00.1
But that doesn't happen overnight.
13:02.2
Of course, it's a long-term strategy.
13:04.0
You have to show indicative planning. So our airports are not improving. Our foreign direct investments are going out. So kailangan makakita mo lang tayo, at least sila, itong mga interesado na ito na something indicative.
13:22.7
Now, the price of electricity and power is slowly going down. Not dramatically, but at least may ganun kasing direksyon. At least yung mga binabanata natin, mga corrupt, cartels, etc., may makita naman tayo kahit isa, dalawa, tatlo na makukulong, na makakasuhan. Or else it will just be plain rhetorics na paulit-ulit.
13:45.8
So ito yung sinasabi ko na something indicative to invite them to really...
13:54.6
Yun yung sinasabi ko. Tama ka, comparative advantage ay tinatrabaho. Pero kung wala kang recognition na ito yung ating comparative advantage, ito yung problema.
14:05.5
Kung basic minimum, hindi mo tanggap na, ang tingin mo, you believe in your own legend, in your own propaganda na ang galing-galing natin. 90 billion dollars, papasok na. Wala pa nga na isang billion na pumapasok.
14:20.7
Ronald, ganitong take.
14:22.7
Ang take ko dito, ganitong take ko.
14:25.6
Ang mga bansa na ito, Australia, Canada, Japan, wala silang mahanap na katulad natin sa buong Southeast Asia, at the very least.
14:35.4
No other Southeast Asian country shares their principles and cultures and definitely no South Asian country is going to stand up to China like them.
14:43.5
Point ko dito is kapalit ng kanilang more access and more cooperation and more strategic presence here,
14:49.9
they have to give us something good in terms of economics, in terms of trade.
14:54.4
So they have to make a strategic investment in the Philippines beyond just Pearl Harbor of Asia.
14:59.7
Do you get what I'm saying?
15:01.4
In short, I'm saying we have to juice them out because they're not going to find any other Southeast Asian country with our geography, with our culture, with our alignment, with our orientation.
15:11.1
So we need to juice that out. That's my point.
15:13.5
But Richard, that's what we are for the past decades.
15:19.9
But still, ang puntahan nila is Vietnam, ngayon Indonesia, Thailand, to some extent Malaysia.
15:29.9
So parang hindi yan nagiging comparative advantage natin for the past years.
15:34.8
Bottom line, their governments have to balance the interest of their private sector na mag-iinvest.
15:43.8
Hindi lang yan official development. Hindi lang naman yan grants. A large part of that.
15:49.9
These investments by their own private companies eh. Di ba? Yun yung binabalansin nila.
15:56.1
Yes, I get it, Ronald. But it's like now you see Ursula von der Leyen coming to Manila.
16:01.1
Now you see Foreign Secretary of, let's say, you get what I'm saying?
16:05.6
Like they're taking it seriously. Even during the Pinoy, for all the good things Pinoy was doing, the Americans never took the business seriously.
16:12.5
Now, this is not about BBM. This is about the Philippines knocking on the door and saying,
16:17.5
Hey, baka naman gusto niyong pansinin din ang Pilipinas.
16:20.0
Puro kayong Vietnam, puro kayong Thailand, puro kayong Malaysia. Maya naman kayo. Ito na ang kausap.
16:24.3
You get what I'm saying? Like you have to do that with them.
16:26.9
Like, oh, umayos nyo.
16:27.5
Yes, ang sinasabi ko, they have to put their money where their mouth is.
16:33.8
Money where their mouth is. Exactly, yeah.
16:35.0
At hindi ko pa nakikita yun. Ang nakikita ko are…
16:38.4
Yun ang sinasabi ko.
16:39.1
Yeah. Yun ang naman sinasabi ko. At ang sinasabi ko, ang ating assignment, kahit pa parang comparative advantage.
16:46.7
Ito yung assignment nila. They will convince their investors.
16:49.9
They will convince their population that we are the strategic partner in this part of the world.
16:57.8
But then again, pagdating nila rito, pag-parachute nito, ang kanilang paratroopers, they're going to see, oh, oops.
17:04.1
No? Yan yung makikita nila.
17:06.0
So, ang sinasabi ko lang, I ask, para naman sila ay pumasok, hawiin naman natin ng konti yung daan.
17:14.6
Diba? Tanggalin naman natin yung garbage ng konti. Diba?
17:18.2
Medyo patagi naman natin.
17:21.6
Yun ang naman sinasabi ko.
17:26.6
Kahit communist Vietnam, bakit ang daming investor doon ng mga U.S.?
17:34.0
Harley Davidson, nandun ngayon.
17:36.5
North Face, nandun ngayon sa Vietnam.
17:38.9
Again, Ronald, it gets good.
17:40.5
Like the same with communist China, right?
17:42.3
I mean, it's always a combination of geopolitical alignment and at the same time economic investment.
17:47.8
Kasi diba, in China rin, andun ng China forever.
17:50.5
Pero nung karoon ng big investment was after nag-normalize ng ties ang China and the West.
17:55.4
So what I'm saying is, why not the Philippines make its comparative advantage its geopolitical
18:01.0
relevance as part of...
18:02.5
Kasi ang pwede gawin ng U.S.
18:04.2
And I think this will set the tone for the next episode.
18:07.3
Feeling ko may kinalaman ng mga partners natin with what's happening with Laila de Lima.
18:11.8
Feeling ko may kinalaman ng mga partners natin with marginalization of the Duterte's.
18:15.7
I think behind the scenes, they're telling...
18:17.8
So Marcos, baka naman, sir, gusto mong mag-ayos ng konti para matulungan din namin kayo.
18:22.2
Kasi demokrasya tayo, diba?
18:24.1
So what I'm saying is, if they can pressure Marcos, not pressure, sorry, nudge Marcos in
18:29.1
the right direction on human rights, maybe they can nudge Marcos to bust some of the oligarchies
18:34.4
or make some of our oligarchs more competitive or open to...
18:37.8
You get what I'm saying?
18:38.3
Like these gentle nudges behind the scenes, helping with regulation, capacity building.
18:43.8
At the end of the day, the decision will be by the American companies and European companies.
18:47.8
Hindi mo sila pwedeng utusin.
18:49.4
Hindi ito Huawei or Chinese companies.
18:51.5
But you can create and facilitate the conditions to make the Philippines more attractive to Qualicom
18:57.8
and American and European and BMWs and all.
19:01.8
You get what I'm saying?
19:02.5
So that's what we can do.
19:04.8
Yung first-hand experience ko dyan, very supportive si Pinoy sa West.
19:11.8
Very supportive sila sa US.
19:13.7
To be honest, dyan eh, when they were being oppressed.
19:17.2
By the Marcos dictatorship.
19:19.3
Pero nung panahon niya, nakakuha kami ng dalawang lumang World War II vintage boats.
19:26.0
Yung isa, tin-aspire pa namin yung .50 caliber gun.
19:31.5
Hindi pumutok, no?
19:36.7
Sana, di nagdagan naman nila yung support.
19:38.6
Dahil yan yung panahon na nag-offensive na yung China.
19:43.2
Don't have the Philippines on the chip.
19:45.5
So what we got was...
19:46.8
Kaya galit na galit si Pinoy noon.
19:48.3
Ano ba, ano ba kailangan gawin namin, no?
19:52.0
So alimbawa, ngayon, kailangan nilang bilisan.
19:56.1
Because it's now four years na lang eh.
19:59.3
Four years na lang.
20:00.1
Halos lampas na yung two years.
20:01.7
So they have to scale up quickly yesterday.
20:05.9
Not tomorrow, diba?
20:07.5
Yun lang, yun lang sabi ko, no?
20:09.4
Baka kinakailangan din natin silang itulak while we're doing our homework.
20:13.5
Yeah, that's what we're doing.
20:16.7
You cannot have the Philippines on the chip, right?
20:19.2
Yun ang kasalanan nila kay Pinoy eh.
20:21.0
They didn't provide support to Pinoy eh.
20:22.9
They were just using the Philippines when Philippines was open.
20:25.9
Nung tenesyo 50 caliber in this world.
20:27.9
Palpak na rin yung mga allies natin.
20:32.1
Gusto nga ni Pinoy, soli na eh.
20:34.0
Nung soli na sa kanila.
20:35.1
Anong tingin nila sa atin?
20:39.1
I mean, Ronald, let's be honest.
20:41.0
Tingnan mo yung treatment nila kay BBM.
20:42.6
Binibigyan ng red carpet sa Pentagon, red carpet sa Indo-Pacific.
20:45.4
They didn't give that to Aquino.
20:47.9
Aquino deserved that 10 times more.
20:49.6
10 times more na deserved ni Aquino.
20:51.5
Sana, they put their money where their mouth is, no?
20:56.6
Yun lang naman sinasabi ko.
20:57.9
Ang sinasabi ko lang, for now, medyo wala pa.
21:02.5
And time is moving fast.
21:05.0
Meron ka lang mga desktop, no?
21:10.8
The government has to show something, no?
21:14.8
Dahil pag-abot ng midterm,
21:16.7
tapos wala pa rin silang maipakita.
21:20.3
The post-midterm will be difficult.
21:24.2
Kung itong one and a half years,
21:26.9
wala silang maipakita.
21:30.0
Kaya yung gustong tumulong sa kanila,
21:31.5
tumulong na ngayon.
21:33.4
Huwag after the midterms.
21:35.7
bagbabago totally yung political complexion.
21:39.1
Because it's about 2028.
21:44.9
Ang point natin dito is,
21:46.7
seize the moment, right?
21:49.6
Yan ang point natin.
21:51.4
Ang allies natin shouldn't take it for granted.
21:52.9
Baka next year, makabalik si Trump.
21:57.5
Paano kung makabalik si Trump?
21:59.5
Bagong negotiations na naman, diba?
22:01.7
Bagong ko na naman.
22:06.6
At saka Ronald, pansin mo,
22:07.8
biglang bumait si Xi Jinping
22:09.2
noong nasa APEC Summit siya.
22:11.7
Friendly siya sa US.
22:13.3
Friendly siya sa Governor News
22:17.3
medyo matalino din sila.
22:18.7
They can put yan.
22:19.7
Bakit sila bigla out of nowhere?
22:21.5
Bakit nila ipupush yung envelope sa Taiwan?
22:23.8
Eh magkakaroon ng election sa Taiwan
22:25.4
na baka manali yung kakabili.
22:28.2
Bakit nila ipupush yung envelope sa US
22:30.4
where si Trump might
22:32.1
most probably be the next president
22:34.4
and they can play with Trump, no?
22:36.7
pwede naman sila, no?
22:40.3
Mga pragmatist din yung Chinese, diba?
22:44.0
Hindi naman yan mga...
22:45.4
Tsaka nag-a-adjust yung mga...
22:46.5
Ngayon, nag-a-adjust din sila.
22:48.7
they do bullying,
22:49.4
but mautak talaga mga Chinese.
22:52.3
sa Xiaowen Lai framework
22:53.7
that we can outweigh you.
22:56.2
We can outweigh you.
22:58.8
dominant foreign policy
23:00.1
since Deng Xiaoping
23:01.7
hanggang Hu Jintao.
23:03.6
Ba't siya lang bumalik doon?
23:07.3
if you saw yung meeting
23:09.3
and Governor News Sam,
23:10.8
nag-exchange pa ng
23:11.7
golden warrior's shirt,
23:14.3
he can put on the charm, eh.
23:15.7
You don't understand.
23:17.1
matalino talaga mga taong yan.
23:19.0
nung nag-usap sila ni Bongbong,
23:20.5
anong pinag-usapan nila?
23:23.2
Natawa nga ako, eh.
23:24.6
Ano namang i-de-de-escalate
23:28.8
nag-escalate ever.
23:30.7
So anong i-de-de-escalate natin?
23:32.6
Pag pinag-usapan ng de-escalation,
23:36.0
on the court of China.
23:38.5
Sila yung dapat mag-de-escalate.
23:41.2
anong de-escalation
23:43.0
ang gagawin ni BBM?
23:44.0
Anong de-escalation
23:46.5
ang gagawin ng Pilipinas?
23:50.0
yun minsan yung double-talk, eh.
23:56.5
mga meetings na ito.
23:59.3
Thank you very much,
24:00.4
Secretary Llamas.
24:01.1
I think we discussed
24:02.2
this issue very well.
24:03.1
How the Philippines can maximize
24:05.6
geopolitical relevance.
24:07.2
And you and I agree,
24:08.3
Aquino was not given
24:10.7
Hindi siya sineryosa
24:11.6
as much as he deserved.
24:14.5
It's about realizing
24:15.1
the Philippines is important.
24:17.1
we want to make sure
24:17.7
na hindi lang tayo
24:20.8
and we create jobs
24:21.7
and opportunities
24:23.9
China is gonna come
24:24.8
knocking on the door again.
24:26.0
Wala kayong makuha rin sa West.
24:27.7
Kami talagang future.
24:28.7
We are the inevitable future.
24:30.1
So, we want to push back
24:31.4
Thank you very much again,
24:32.3
Secretary Llamas.
