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SARA DUTERTE: PANIC MODE SA ICC!???
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Richard Heydarian VLOGS
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00:00.0
Ito na! Ito na mga kameta! Kamusta kayo dyan?
00:15.0
Kamusta kayo dyan? Sabi ko i-singit natin itong mabilisan na vlog bago tayo pumunta sa next na trabaho natin
00:21.8
Pasensya na mga kameta, ang dami natin mga inaatupag in the past few days
00:27.7
Grabe, grabe ito. Of course, kanina, kakaapon actually, pumunta din tayo dun sa movie
00:32.6
Shoutout dyan kay Jet Tolentino, Jet Tolentino Production, Asian Persuasions
00:38.4
I already suggest you guys to watch it sa kapon
00:40.3
Andun po tayo, kasama natin yung mga artist, mga sosyal na people
00:45.2
Nasa likod natin si Casey Concepcion, si Gab Concepcion yan
00:51.3
Nakikifeeling showbiz naman tayo dyan
00:54.1
I'm so proud of our good friend Jet Tolentino
00:57.7
Who we interviewed on our platforms, on my own podcast, among other platforms
01:01.5
Several times, at saka yung kanyang mga plano
01:03.9
Pagdating na bringing the Philippine cinema to the next level
01:07.5
So congratulations, Asian Persuasions
01:09.8
I suggest you guys go and check it
01:11.7
Medyo maraming hugot
01:13.0
It's a good fusion of Philippine American culture, Philippine Asian culture
01:18.4
But at the end of the day, meron pa rin may Pinoy flavor
01:21.7
May Pinoy flavor
01:23.4
At dun sa mga ibang pet peeves natin, may mention din dyan
01:27.0
So please
01:27.7
Go and check it out
01:28.7
I was very glad about how it turned out
01:33.2
Nung mga medyo nervyoso tayo
01:34.6
I hope this turns out well
01:36.7
This is something big, this is something important
01:39.2
It's about putting the Philippines on the map
01:40.8
In the same way, mga ibang Asian American movies
01:44.7
Beef ba yun?
01:47.3
Crazy Rich Asians
01:48.6
They put a lot of Asian American on the map
01:52.1
So we're hoping na this will be part of a bigger effort
01:55.6
To put the Filipino American experience
01:57.7
On the map
01:58.2
And also the Filipino on the map
01:59.5
So congratulations again
02:01.1
Dun sa kaibigan natin, Jett Tolentino
02:03.6
Dun sa kanyang new movie
02:06.2
Pag-usapan natin separately
02:07.6
And sigura I'll give a proper review of that
02:10.2
Once we get down
02:11.4
We get some downer time
02:13.9
Some breather
02:14.6
Now in the meantime
02:15.3
Ito mga kameta na may mabilisan tayo ng mga developments dito sa ating politika
02:21.7
Nako po, things have been intensifying over the past 24 hours or so
02:26.3
So nag-share tayo
02:27.7
Nang video ni Vice President Sara Duterte
02:30.5
As of course you guys may know
02:31.9
It's not only Rodrigo Duterte
02:34.4
But Sara Duterte and actually two other senators
02:37.0
Have been placed dun sa ICC probe document
02:41.2
So hindi lang si Rodrigo Duterte
02:42.6
Kasama din dyan si Sara Duterte
02:44.4
At if I'm not mistaken, not only Bato de la Rosa
02:47.2
Yan, shoutout naman dyan kay Bato
02:49.1
At mukhang si Bongo rin yata kasama dyan dun
02:52.7
So this is just quite something serious mga kameta
02:55.7
So if you're sorry
02:57.7
Sara Duterte, you're not only worrying right now
02:59.7
About what could potentially happen dun sa kanyang
03:01.7
You know, the previous president
03:04.7
But apparently she's also now on the list
03:07.7
So mga kameta, pag-usapan natin yan
03:09.7
Before that, obviously nakita niyo kaapon yung video na pinost natin from Sara Duterte
03:15.7
And there you could really see
03:17.7
Literally there's a change in tone
03:19.7
There's a change in cadence
03:20.7
There's a change in level of confidence
03:23.7
And pizazz and suave
03:25.7
And some would say yabang and all of that
03:27.7
Nakita niyo, even the tone is very very important
03:30.7
And very very different from what we're used to
03:33.7
From this powerful or maybe increasingly once powerful family
03:39.7
So just to show again yung mga hindi nakita nung video natin
03:42.7
This went viral, half a million views right now almost
03:46.7
Dyan sa Twitter feed natin
03:48.7
And I just also shared dyan sa Instagram
03:50.7
For some reason, parang bumaba yung views natin sa Facebook
03:54.7
I don't know what happened
03:55.7
Just in the past week lang ha?
03:57.7
Alam mo minsan suspicious talaga itong Facebook na to ha
04:00.7
To be honest ha
04:01.7
Because yung views po natin sa YouTube
04:03.7
Views natin sa Twitter
04:05.7
Lahat explode ngayon
04:06.7
Sobrang taas nung views natin
04:08.7
Thank God no, I mean
04:09.7
I think over the past month naka million views na tayo sa YouTube
04:12.7
Twitter, minsan one post lang naka half a million views na tayo
04:16.7
Instagram, I'm also starting to get the ball rolling
04:18.7
TikTok, minsan tsamba tsamba
04:22.7
Pero naka 100k views na rin tayo with the few posts that I made over the past few days
04:26.7
So I'm trying to get back into TikTok also
04:28.7
And also try to work that out
04:30.7
Also shout out dyan sa ating cousin na si Anton
04:33.7
Helping me out now with making shorts and all
04:35.7
Kasi kailangan ko talaga yan pagdating sa TikTok
04:37.7
Mga kamayeta talagang I'm spread thin
04:40.7
Sobrang pagod ako
04:42.7
I think people don't realize how hard it is to organize people and bring them together
04:46.7
Lalo mga Pilipino
04:47.7
I'm very glad and very blessed na we have friends like Ronaldo, Lisandro
04:53.7
We have young generation of scholars who
04:55.7
Who bothered to join us
04:57.7
But you know generally it's very hard to organize interviews and all
05:00.7
Akala niyo yung interview lang mismo yung time na nilagay natin no guys
05:03.7
Mahirap talaga mag-organize mismo
05:05.7
So much effort goes in
05:07.7
I have no staff, I have no production team
05:09.7
So I do all of these things alone no
05:11.7
So kitang-kita ninyo medyo overstretched na tayo
05:14.7
So thank you so much again sa mga sumusuporta
05:16.7
Yun lang, minsan yung Facebook ko biglang bumababa eh
05:18.7
Kasi half a million views tayo few weeks ago
05:20.7
Ang taas ng views natin
05:22.7
Biglang this week bumaksak yung views natin sa Facebook so I don't know what's going on there
05:23.7
So I don't know what's going on there
05:24.7
I don't know what's going on
05:25.7
I don't know what's going on
05:26.7
Misa suspicious yan
05:27.7
Remember yung ilang times na na-shut down yung mga live natin or something nung last year
05:32.7
Sobrang frustrating yan
05:33.7
We were going from millions of views a day or two no
05:36.7
To suddenly barely a thousand viewers a day
05:39.7
So that was a difficult transition pero maraming salamat sa Diyos
05:43.7
Medyo nag-diversify na tayo
05:45.7
So medyo malaki yung following natin ngayon in different places
05:47.7
And malaki yung engagement natin on different platforms
05:50.7
Now this is not because gusto natin magpa-cute or anything like that
05:53.7
This is not because gusto natin magpa-cute or anything like that
05:54.7
No, this is about getting the message out
05:56.7
Dahil ang daming basura out there, ang daming propaganda out there, ang daming nonsense out there
06:00.7
So we have to push back against that
06:02.7
And we have to bring an informed discussion to the Filipino people
06:05.7
And I think they really deserve it
06:07.7
And sobrang tuwantuwa ako na we have the privilege of having many friends na maraming kalaman
06:13.7
Maraming kanilang kalaman sa ating politika at saka mga iba-ibang adhikayin
06:18.7
So yun ang mga pinag-usapan natin sa mga ating mga platforms
06:21.7
Also on podcasts
06:23.7
Top 200 na tayo sa Pilipinas
06:25.7
Target po natin before the end of this year
06:27.7
God willing we go to the top 100 podcasts in the Philippines
06:30.7
I think yun yung ranking eh
06:32.7
Nakalagay lang Philippines eh
06:33.7
So probably this is all podcasts in the Philippines
06:36.7
So being top 100 in the podcasts in the Philippines is a big deal for us
06:40.7
Kasi ang kalaban natin mga big celebrities, media, or journalists working with media outlets
06:47.7
Again, this is just tayo-tayo lang yan
06:49.7
So thank you so much sa lahat ng mga sumusuporto natin
06:51.7
Like 50, 60 countries na naging ginagamit natin sa Philippines
06:52.7
Over Spotify
06:54.7
I really, really appreciate it
06:55.7
Yung mga Barbados, Tonga, Jersey
06:59.7
May bansa pala na Jersey, I didn't know that
07:00.7
It's British territory yata
07:02.7
So, so many people are listening to us
07:04.7
Shoutout dyan sa mga kaibigan natin from Saudi Arabia
07:06.7
Many, many people joining us from all around the world
07:09.7
Thank you very much for that
07:10.7
Now, let's go back to this
07:11.7
Ito po yung pinakita ko the other day
07:13.7
Sorry ah, medyo nag-ugot lang ako kasi
07:16.7
Misang weird talaga tong Facebook eh
07:18.7
Hindi siya reasonable eh
07:20.7
Parang minsan, agad doon, minsan, yun eh...
07:21.7
Hindi, I mean, I'm not doing something too different
07:24.7
If anything, nagiging more active tayo
07:26.7
And we're sharing more even on Facebook
07:27.7
So, I don't know what's going on there
07:29.7
Kaya nang humuska dyan
07:31.7
Kung may shadow ban or something nangyari sa atin
07:34.7
Alright?
07:35.7
But thankfully, we have many platforms
07:37.7
So that's the point
07:38.7
Diversify ako, it was not easy
07:40.7
Precisely to make sure na pag may shadow ban
07:43.7
Or may kalukuan
07:44.7
I'm not saying that's not happening
07:45.7
But I'm saying just in case
07:46.7
Meron tayong backup plan
07:48.7
Alright? Meron tayong backup plan
07:49.7
So thank you so much sa lahat ng mga sumusuporto natin
07:51.7
Sa ibat-ibang platforms
07:54.7
Now, let's go back to this mga kameta
07:56.7
Panoorin natin to
07:58.7
Masaya to, masaya to
08:00.7
So, ito po yung video na
08:04.7
Singshare natin the other day
08:07.7
Being the chief architect of
08:10.7
Respect the, ano
08:12.7
The position of the president
08:14.7
Being the chief architect of foreign policy
08:20.7
So, yun po lahat ang dapat na position natin
08:23.7
Lahat
08:24.7
Pero, we will continue to reach out to the Department of Justice
08:31.7
Regarding our position on this matter
08:33.7
Ma'am, when you say na makipag-ugnayan tayo sa DOJ
08:36.7
So, we will still push na huwag dapat mag
08:39.7
Ito importante mga kameta yung makipag-ugnayan sa DOJ
08:44.7
Wait lang
08:45.7
Diba dapat independent yung mga investigations na yan
08:47.7
And then you're reading the administration?
08:49.7
Hindi na makipag-ugnayan tayo sa DOJ
08:52.7
So, we will still push na huwag dapat mag-imposisyon ng government
08:56.7
Ang pakikipagtulungan sa ICC
08:58.7
Just to be clear
08:59.7
Yes, opo
09:00.7
We will continue to reach out to the Department of Justice
09:03.7
Regarding our position on this matter
09:05.7
And we will lay down the legal basis of our position
09:09.7
With the DOJ
09:11.7
Yeah, but the problem dun sa legal basis argument is
09:15.7
Diba mga kameta
09:16.7
We already had a number of
09:18.7
Conversations including with international humanitarian law experts
09:22.7
Like Professor Carranza, Dr. Carranza, Atty. Carranza
09:26.7
We also had a number of our own vlogs explaining
09:29.7
Why itong argument ng jurisdiction no longer holds
09:32.7
Clearly, there is determination by the International Criminal Court
09:36.7
That the Philippine courts have not been doing a sufficient job
09:39.7
To deal with tens of thousands of alleged extrajudicial killings
09:42.7
So, just showing a few cases here and their supposed resolve
09:45.7
Doesn't go anywhere close to establishing that the Philippine courts
09:48.7
And the Philippine judicial institutions are
09:50.7
Undertaking what they're supposed to undertake
09:52.7
Given the scale of extrajudicial killing allegations that are out there
09:56.7
By the way, last night I was also reading yung book ni Patricia Evangelista
09:59.7
Yung ating senior sa debate society dati sa UP
10:02.7
Mang small world yan
10:03.7
Kami LLO, Patricia, all of us we come from the same world
10:06.7
Very emotional, very strong
10:08.7
So, I really also suggest you guys read that book
10:11.7
Based on the quote from Duterte
10:13.7
Some need a killing or something like that, okay?
10:16.7
Some people need a killing
10:17.7
Some people need a killing
10:18.7
So, hopefully we'll arrange also an interview with Patricia down the road
10:24.7
But let me read the book
10:25.7
Because I'm expected to do a review on it
10:28.7
For a number of international publications
10:31.7
In the coming weeks
10:32.7
So, I'll get back to that
10:33.7
Kaya medyo last night medyo emotional tayo
10:35.7
Kasi etong issue ng mga extrajudicial killings
10:38.7
Again ha, again ha
10:39.7
Ang dami ako nakikita mga nagsasabi
10:41.7
Oh, salamat sa drug war ni Digong
10:43.7
We feel more safe
10:44.7
We feel
10:45.7
That's very important, we feel
10:47.7
Kaling lang pala yan
10:48.7
Because show me the evidence
10:49.7
That there's a sustainable reduction talaga
10:51.7
Doon sa drug supply and overall criminality
10:54.7
How can you say crime is down
10:55.7
When murder rates are up?
10:57.7
I mean, when the worst kinds of crimes are up
10:59.7
How can you say crime is down?
11:01.7
I mean, that's ridiculous
11:02.7
That's dumb
11:03.7
More than that
11:04.7
Let me absolutely clear
11:06.7
How can we say for sure na yung mga pinatay
11:08.7
Tens of thousands including hundreds of children
11:13.7
Paano mo alam na mga drug pusher mga yan?
11:15.7
And paano mo alam talaga
11:16.7
Na big time drug lord yung mga yan?
11:18.7
And even if drug lord mga yan
11:20.7
Or small time pusher mga yan
11:22.7
Did they deserve
11:23.7
To be just summarily killed
11:25.7
The way they were killed?
11:26.7
And yun nga eh
11:27.7
We don't even know what happened there
11:29.7
Because it was under
11:30.7
It was shrouded under very very questionable circumstances
11:33.7
So, yung mga elitista dyan
11:36.7
Na either gollible na napapauto
11:41.7
Sa mga propaganda dyan
11:43.7
Or mga nagfe-feeling safe bigla
11:44.7
Kasi gusto nila i-justify yung kanilang kabubuan
11:48.7
Sorry to say that
11:50.7
Your feeling safe is not worth a single life
11:53.7
A single innocent life
11:55.7
And you tell me with a straight face
11:57.7
That you're 100% sure
11:59.7
Doon sa 10,000 or 20,000
12:01.7
Or 6,000 even by government numbers na namatay
12:03.7
Lahat yan guilty
12:04.7
And guilty by what?
12:05.7
I mean, summarily killing is not allowed
12:07.7
That's called extrajudicial killing
12:09.7
At lahat yan ng laban
12:11.7
And to say collateral damage lang yan
12:13.7
Shame on you
12:14.7
And if that collateral damage is you or your people
12:16.7
Then you're gonna say it's collateral damage?
12:18.7
So, shame on you
12:19.7
Shame on you
12:20.7
Alright?
12:21.7
And wag kayo mag-feeling massa dyan
12:22.7
Kung nagte-Twitter, Twitter kayo
12:24.7
So, obviously may pera kayo pang internet
12:26.7
Pag mga English, etc
12:27.7
So, yung mga nagfe-feeling dyan ng middle class, middle class dyan
12:30.7
Umaayos kayo dyan
12:31.7
Alright?
12:32.7
Okay
12:33.7
Let's go back to this issue
12:34.7
That's why I'm saying
12:35.7
This is very very important mga kameta
12:36.7
Because the fate of our democracy
12:38.7
Right?
12:39.7
Is at stake here
12:40.7
Not only the credibility of the ICC
12:42.7
Because the problem with the ICC is that
12:43.7
The bulk of the people that they prosecuted throughout the years
12:46.7
Come from Sub-Saharan Africa
12:48.7
I don't know, Liberia, Kenya, mga ganyan
12:50.7
Alright?
12:51.7
Barely, I mean
12:52.7
Arguably Serbians
12:54.7
Right?
12:55.7
So, they are yet to really go after people successfully outside
12:59.7
More or less the immediate surroundings of Europe
13:04.7
Right?
13:05.7
So, in case if this pushes forward
13:07.7
This tells you a thing or two about
13:09.7
Whether ICC
13:11.7
It can really go beyond
13:13.7
Geopolitical parochialism
13:14.7
Right?
13:15.7
And they also have to prove to us
13:16.7
That wala silang institutional bias
13:17.7
Right?
13:18.7
This is very important
13:19.7
So, ICC's own credibility
13:20.7
Is at stake here
13:21.7
It's very very important for them to get this question right
13:22.7
Because the ICC
13:23.7
Came out with the warrant of arrest for Putin
13:24.7
Just weeks after
13:25.7
I'm sorry
13:26.7
Just months after the war in Ukraine
13:27.7
Right?
13:28.7
Now, people are asking
13:29.7
What about
13:30.7
A situation we're seeing right now
13:31.7
Whereby
13:32.7
More than a hundred children are being killed
13:33.7
On a daily basis
13:34.7
Right?
13:35.7
So, I think
13:36.7
I think
13:37.7
I think
13:38.7
I think
13:39.7
I think
13:40.7
I think
13:41.7
I think
13:42.7
I think
13:43.7
I think
13:44.7
A lot of people are going to be killed
13:45.7
On a daily basis
13:46.7
Not too far from Europe
13:47.7
What is ICC going to do about that?
13:48.7
Is ICC going to investigate it?
13:49.7
Because there are allegations of
13:50.7
You know
13:51.7
War crimes
13:52.7
Let's see
13:53.7
Let's see
13:54.7
But I'm saying
13:55.7
The case of the Philippines
13:56.7
Ang tagal na to eh
13:57.7
Ang tagal na itong case ng Philippines eh
13:58.7
Ilan taon na yan
13:59.7
Di ba?
14:00.7
Wala si Tatay
14:01.7
Ano na?
14:02.7
Wala
14:03.7
Ano na?
14:04.7
Hindi pa rin na
14:05.7
So, I
14:06.7
This is also an ICC
14:07.7
This is also up to ICC
14:08.7
ICC also has to prove
14:09.7
That they got
14:10.7
You know
14:11.7
They got what it takes
14:12.7
But you cannot also blame ICC kung binablock din sila ng mga ating authorities. Kaya very very important mga kameta to see what the Marcos administration is doing. Now in slight disagreement with my ka-R&R si Ronaldo, if you really look at the statement of Marcos Jr.
14:30.0
Because you know what I do as a journalist, because I write eh. When you write, you go through the quotes one by one, one by one, one by one. You examine. And as a scholar also, I see textual analysis, I examine. Actually, Marcos Jr. is a little bit leaning to the other side. Kaya tignan niyo yung mukha ni Sarah when she's talking about this issue. She doesn't look like a very confident person. Right? She doesn't look like it. So with all due respect to some other people, I don't think Marcos was totally, you know, obfuscating.
14:58.1
I think may medyo nag-lean shot.
14:60.0
And this is what's interesting. Because maraming nagtanong, wait lang, hindi ba conflict of interest yan? Or hindi ba questionable yan? Na the vice president in the same administration will kausap yung DOJ about an investigation that's supposed to be impartial and independent?
15:17.8
So interestingly in response to that, the DOJ actually came in with a strong response. At sabi nila, hindi kailangan na magsalita si Sarah about this issue, etc. Because they're also feeling the heat. Right?
15:29.4
Because suddenly people are asking, wait, wait, wait. What do you mean that kakausapin nila Sarah itong DOJ? What's that supposed to mean? Alright?
15:39.4
So sabi ng DOJ, hindi naman po kailangan mag-request dahil hindi naman po nagbagong stance ng DOJ, sabi ni Clavano.
15:47.4
Anyway, but of course, the more important question here is, is it even appropriate to do that?
15:53.8
Now, let's not forget that earlier, Marcos Jr. said it's understudy.
15:59.4
Secretary Jesus Crisman Ramulia said it's under serious study. Right?
16:05.8
So, and ito ha, very important yun ha. Ito yung sinabi ni Clavano, yung isang top official sa DOJ. Sabi niya, kagaya siguro nang sinabi ni Secretary Ramulia, pinapag-aralan lang po.
16:18.4
Dahil may mga nagsalita galing sa kongresa, trabaho namin po na makinig sa ating co-equal branch of government.
16:24.5
So it is true that the president is the ultimate architect of Philippine foreign policy.
16:29.4
But it cannot completely ignore yung sinasabi ng legislature because our very membership in the ICC had to go through the Senate fire ratification process.
16:39.0
So the legislature has to do something about this.
16:42.0
At ito rin po yung sinabi.
16:44.0
And I think dito po sa amin sa DOJ, sa ngayon, ito pa rin po yung stand namin na wala pong jurisdiction ng ICC.
16:52.7
Although, of course, magiging bukas kami if ever meron po tayo nakikita ang pagbabago sa policy.
16:59.4
So that's extremely important.
17:01.9
This quote is very, very important from the DOJ official.
17:05.9
So in short, hindi final ang lahat.
17:09.1
Now, katulad ng argument ko earlier, mga kameta,
17:13.2
I still doubt Marcos Jr. will go all-in sa ICC issue niyan.
17:17.5
Because as I wrote in my article today,
17:20.7
as I wrote in my article today sa Philippine Daily Inquirer,
17:24.9
that will be a declaration of war on the Dutertes.
17:28.0
And there will be almost a...
17:29.4
civil war, mini-civil war among them.
17:32.0
Now, we can debate about who has the upper hand.
17:34.2
Obviously, you can imagine that given the current circumstances,
17:37.2
parang sinking ship or sunk ship na in one side.
17:39.3
But I won't underestimate the other side.
17:41.2
I won't also underestimate Marcos Jr.'s cautious nature.
17:45.4
Right?
17:46.0
So I don't think Marcos Jr. will move ahead right away with the ICC
17:50.4
unless he's absolutely sure that they can take care of the fallout.
17:55.7
Meaning he has been reassured by people around him na kami bahala.
17:59.1
Ayusin na kami niyan.
18:00.0
We'll make sure.
18:00.6
And also, of course, if my 100% support from outside,
18:04.6
including our European, American, and Western partners.
18:06.9
I'm just about to interview actually one of the big...
18:09.3
one of the important key ambassadors to ask him also about this issue.
18:13.5
So we'll have more discussions on that.
18:15.4
Don't worry, I'll post on that.
18:16.8
Also, check out yung sa YouTube po,
18:18.6
yung clips or yung full copy na interview natin sa view from Manila sa One News TV 5.
18:24.8
So you can check also interviews natin with the senior officials, ambassadors,
18:29.1
undersecretaries, among others.
18:31.7
And of course, some important senator also quite soon.
18:35.8
Cross fingers.
18:36.8
Okay.
18:37.6
So yun.
18:38.4
So what I'm saying is, that would be declaration of war.
18:41.8
But clearly, and clearly, and this is what I'm gonna say, mga kameta.
18:45.1
This is what I'm gonna say, mga kameta.
18:46.9
What we are seeing right now is the third act in a Shakespearean play
18:51.2
as far as the Marcos Duterte dynamics is concerned.
18:55.4
And let me explain very quickly because I'm gonna end on this point.
18:58.3
I have to leave na.
18:59.1
Mga kameta.
19:01.5
Okay.
19:03.7
Naisin natin yan.
19:05.7
Para pwede gawin ng shorts.
19:08.3
Ito, ito.
19:09.4
Okay, okay.
19:10.0
Ito, ito mga kameta.
19:11.2
Let me be absolutely clear.
19:15.9
Naisin ko lang dito.
19:24.4
Okay.
19:25.4
Alright.
19:26.3
Let me be absolutely clear.
19:28.2
What we're seeing right now,
19:29.1
is a kind of a Shakespearean play.
19:30.9
You know?
19:31.5
Marco Jr. won as a continuity candidate.
19:35.1
Pero alam natin, the moment he won the top office,
19:38.8
and emphatically based on the official tally,
19:41.3
he began to sing to a different tune.
19:43.5
Kitang-kita natin yan, mga kameta.
19:45.5
Right?
19:46.0
First of all, and this was the first act,
19:48.6
or act number one, diba?
19:51.0
When he did not give Sara Duterte the defense secretary position,
19:54.9
and connected to that,
19:56.1
when he did not give the Speaker of the House,
19:58.8
or,
19:59.1
or rather, he did not facilitate the Speaker of the House position
20:02.4
going to Gloria Macapagalaroid.
20:03.7
That was already act number one.
20:05.5
The second act happened when nangyari that whole Tamba Los Los.
20:10.0
Right?
20:11.0
Essentially, explosion.
20:12.5
Whereby you had Sara and Arroyo versus,
20:15.6
essentially, the President's right-hand man in the Congress.
20:18.3
Right?
20:18.8
And his many supporters right now,
20:20.9
including the former allies of the former President.
20:23.6
Right?
20:24.2
Now, the Tamba Los Los episode itself
20:25.8
was an upshot of Marcos Jr.
20:28.2
chipping away,
20:28.8
dun sa mga key legacies ni Digong.
20:30.8
Yung kanyang drug war,
20:31.9
hindi kasing bara-bara.
20:33.5
Yung kanyang red-tagging,
20:35.4
hindi kasing all over the place,
20:36.8
na hysterical.
20:38.0
And pangatlo, very importantly,
20:39.6
dun sa US-China,
20:40.6
clearly, nag-recalibrate si Marcos Jr.
20:43.1
pagdating sa ating polisiya sa West Philippine Sea.
20:45.7
And clearly, he was distancing himself dun sa pro-China,
20:48.7
pro-Beijing policies ni Digong.
20:50.3
Right?
20:50.9
So that was act number two.
20:52.7
And then, Digong responded.
20:54.6
He went to China,
20:55.7
essentially a slap on the face of the President,
20:57.5
diplomatically speaking,
20:58.8
and then, over the coming months,
21:00.5
he began bashing the administration
21:02.6
and calling the Congress rotten
21:04.1
as act three came in,
21:06.1
which was the retaliation.
21:07.8
Right?
21:08.2
Yung Confidential Intelligence Fund.
21:09.7
So this is act three.
21:11.0
And let's see how this act three is gonna end
21:13.2
because it all goes down to the decision of Marcos Jr.
21:16.7
If he is gonna go and give the green light signal,
21:20.8
right,
21:22.2
to the ICC.
21:24.1
If he does that,
21:25.1
that's total declaration of war.
21:27.3
But,
21:28.8
act three could have sub-acts
21:31.3
if Marcos Jr. believes this is not the time to do it,
21:34.3
or Marcos Jr. may feel that if he goes against Dutertes,
21:37.2
and then Dutertes fight back,
21:38.4
he could be squeezing between two sides
21:40.1
if the other side, the progressive and opposition,
21:42.0
also take on him at the same time
21:43.5
because, of course, the Marcoses have their own baggage.
21:45.8
Right?
21:46.5
So, there's also a lot of other dynamics to keep in mind.
21:50.0
Kaya dapat sa political analysis,
21:51.6
you're looking at many moving parts at the same time.
21:54.2
It has to be a multi-variable analysis,
21:57.1
multi-variant analysis.
21:58.3
Yun po yung dapat ginagawa natin.
21:59.8
So, yung mga nangyayari nang sasabi sa'yo,
22:01.6
ito mangyari dahil ito nangyari,
22:03.3
simplistic mag-isip mo nga yan.
22:04.6
They don't know basic political analysis, right,
22:08.5
or social analysis for that matter.
22:10.4
On that note, thank you very much mga kameta.
22:12.1
Let's continue this kind of conversation.
22:13.7
Marami pong nangyari, marami pong plot twists.
22:16.2
Actually, sub-plot twists.
22:18.0
Sabi ko nasa act three na tayo,
22:19.9
and may sub-plot twist potential is.
22:21.7
Let's see how it's gonna happen.
22:22.6
Now, the interesting thing is,
22:24.1
patapos ng taon,
22:24.9
so there could be a spirit of holidays and all,
22:27.3
and who knows?
22:27.9
Maybe, temporarily, there could be another patch up.
22:30.4
But much will also depend on what Digong is gonna do next
22:33.0
because clearly, his side,
22:34.7
nage-hemorrhage yung kanyang side,
22:36.2
yung kanyang aliado,
22:37.1
they're all defecting to Martin Romaldes,
22:38.8
and boom, all of this,
22:40.8
the act three will also be determined
22:43.0
by the calculus vis-a-vis the 20, 25 midterm elections
22:47.1
which could be very, very definitive.
22:49.4
So, you cannot separate the ICC decision
22:51.6
from all of these other calculus
22:53.2
that is happening at the same time.
22:54.4
On that note, thank you very much.
22:55.9
Marami salamat.
22:56.8
God bless.
22:57.4
And talk to you soon.
22:57.9
Talk to you soon.