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00:00.0
Okay, ito na yung last episode. I really want to go back to the Maharlika Sovereign Wealth Fund BSP economy. I think Leloy talked about it a little bit. But before going there, let's be a little bit provocative. In the previous episode, we discussed if sinong may staying power, Pink or DDS. And we kind of agreed that in the short to medium run, perhaps DDS has slight upper hand.
00:21.4
But the controversial argument I'm going to make is this. Hindi ba kaya pwede isakyan ng mga Pink si BBM for now for their recovery?
00:30.3
Like, isn't BBM the best stepping stone for the return of the liberals or progressives?
00:38.4
Leloy, what do you think about that? Is BBM ironically the stepping stone or the kind of respite that opposition needed to come back stronger?
00:46.5
Mas gusto ko yung second, yung respite as opposed to stepping stone.
00:51.4
So sa ting ko, I think mag-agree naman yung administration. Magkakagamitan yan sa ngayon para yariin yung DDS.
01:00.6
And then, you know, figure out what happens in the future. Marami naman ganyan sa Philippine politics.
01:05.3
Mag-aliyado tayo ngayon. Tapos, wag na natin isipin kung anong gagawin natin 10 years from now.
01:10.6
Just the immediate objective at hand, which is to get rid of the DDS.
01:14.5
Tapos bahala na pag-atasong. Kung magpatayan tayo ng gera patani, okay lang. At least magawa natin yung kailangan natin gawin ngayon.
01:21.4
So Ronald, how do you see that? Pwedeng sakyan si BBM? Pwede i-instrumentalize? Pwede i-weaponize si BBM para durugin ang mga digong? I mean, what's going on here?
01:31.5
Well, sa akin, hindi usapin ng pagsakay. Mas nitpicking. Alibawa, foreign policy, supportahan mo.
01:41.5
Yung paglayo sa tokhang, sa pag-assert ng human rights, supportahan mo.
01:51.4
Sabi mo kasing sasakyan mo, medyo mas comprehensive yan eh. Mahirap gawin yan sa economy.
01:59.9
Mahirap gawin yan sa isang economy na cartelized at walang gagawin yung gobyerno para wasaki ng mga cartels.
02:09.1
Walang gagawin yung gobyerno dito sa mga new cronies. Walang gagawin yung gobyerno para sa restructuring ng economy.
02:17.9
Hindi ko nakikita na mangyayari yan in the next four years.
02:21.4
Four or five years.
02:22.8
So, sa akin, mas nitpicking rather than sakyan.
02:28.3
Pag sinakyan mo kasi, magkakaroon ka even ng tactical alliance sa electoral.
02:34.4
Yun yung magiging kwan mo.
02:35.9
Kiss of death. Kiss of death yan.
02:38.4
Hindi naman, pero mawawala yung substantial base mo na historically ayaw talaga sa Marcos.
02:48.0
So, yung iba kasi, ang framework ng ibang mga pinag-aaral.
02:51.4
A lesser evil is still evil.
02:55.4
Yun yung kwan nila.
02:56.5
Kaya, mag-nitpicking sila.
02:59.8
Mag-cherrypicking pala. Cherrypicking.
03:02.1
Pipili sila ng mga kwan.
03:03.8
With the possibility na meron silang banatan.
03:08.5
Meron din akong narinig na medyo pink.
03:11.3
Ito yung sabi sa akin. Interesting yung phraseology.
03:14.2
Sanay na tayo sa elite democracy.
03:16.9
Pero ngayon lang tayo nakakita ng criminal against humanity.
03:21.4
So, mas madali na, it's easier to put up with the Marcoses.
03:27.4
Kasi ibang level yung Duterte na talagang mass murderer.
03:32.2
As opposed to elite democracy.
03:33.5
Ano ito? Evil versus incompetent.
03:36.4
No, no. I mean, my point guys is, I think the term there is a la carte.
03:40.5
A la carte cooperation. I think that's what Ronald is meaning.
03:43.3
Like, pipili tayo dito. Pipili tayo dyan ng points of collaboration and engagement.
03:48.9
But, definitely rule out a kind of...
03:51.4
Tactical alliance, no? Kasi that could come back to haunt you.
03:54.3
Mahirap yung official.
03:56.0
Limawa, oh, Laila, Trillanes, Riza.
04:01.4
Malinaw yung direction of the main blow, no?
04:04.3
Ang direction of the main blow sa mga Duterte, diba?
04:08.0
Pero hindi sila nakikipag-coalition sa Marcoses, diba?
04:13.0
Kaya si Trillanes?
04:14.1
May maintain nila yung kwano? Hindi, except Trillanes.
04:16.4
E paano ko ma-appoint si Trillanes?
04:18.4
Except Trillanes.
04:19.4
Except Trillanes.
04:20.3
Paano si Trillanes naman?
04:21.3
Hindi naman anti-Marcos, eh. To start with, eh.
04:24.5
Anti-China, yun, no?
04:25.7
Yung father niya ay Marcos, eh.
04:27.9
So, hindi ako magugulat kay Trillanes.
04:31.1
Pero, yung, kumbaga, as a movement, as an organization, no?
04:36.9
Okay lang sa kanila na mag-cherry-picking at bumanat sa main enemy,
04:42.1
pero hindi mag-coalition officially with the Marcoses.
04:46.7
I-maintain pa rin nila yung flank, lalo na ngayon na nahati yung unit team.
04:51.3
Na maging third pole.
04:54.0
Na maging third pole.
04:55.6
Pero gano'ng kaingay itong third flank?
04:58.8
How noisy should this third flank be during this period of transition?
05:03.5
How assertive should it be?
05:04.4
Noisy against the main enemy, against the direction of the main blue,
05:09.1
against the Duterte, against the Arroyo, no?
05:12.0
Ganon yung noisy.
05:13.5
Pero, nakikriticize din sa Maharlika.
05:16.7
Nakikriticize din sa cartels, no?
05:19.6
Naksikriticize din sa cronies, no?
05:22.5
Nakikriticize din sa yung ginagawa halimbawa ngayon sa NRG
05:27.4
na talagang almost total regulatory capture ng isang pamilya, di ba?
05:33.5
Na naging presidente, di ba?
05:36.2
So, ibig sabihin, hindi ka pwedeng tumahimik diyan.
05:41.4
At dahil hindi ka pwedeng tumahimik, hindi ka pwedeng magkaroon ng official coalition.
05:45.8
Babalat at babalat ka, no?
05:49.2
So, saan yung direction of the main blue?
05:51.3
Yung nagtetreten sa constitutional order.
05:53.8
Yung gustong ibalik yung impunity, no?
05:58.0
So, kailangan, at least sa leadership ng pinggui, dapat hindi sila makonfuse.
06:04.4
Panong may kausap din kasi ako mga leaders, na ang tingin nila ay
06:08.5
mas may pagkiling kami sa mga Duterte
06:12.4
dahil mahirap talaga ipagsama ang Aquino at saka Marcos Brand.
06:18.6
So, yun yung kuwa, no?
06:20.2
So, yun yung kuwa.
06:20.9
That means, hindi nag-obligo.
06:22.1
Ronald, Ronald, may maganyan pa rin?
06:26.2
Parang ano to, yung mga 1960s na project na layo sa US.
06:30.9
Nagulat ako dahil ang hirap ipagsama ng Aquino at saka Marcos.
06:35.7
Yung brand, ha? Yung brand.
06:38.1
So, yun yung isa.
06:39.5
Kalawa, meron namang ang tingin.
06:41.8
Papamura ka naman dito, Ronald.
06:43.1
Meron namang mga tingin na okay na yung Marcos for now.
06:48.6
Tulungan natin yan laban sa mga ito.
06:53.9
Pero, ang tingin ko, yung bulto pa rin ay
06:57.4
habang bumabanat dito sa mga main enemy,
07:02.2
main recidivist elements,
07:05.0
main reactionary elements,
07:07.0
ay hindi pa rin sila papasok sa isang
07:10.8
even a critical collaboration formality with the Marcoses.
07:16.6
Yung karamihan, ha?
07:18.6
Yun nga, I actually use the word a la carte cooperation
07:21.4
because I think the critical collaboration, medyo pejorative na rin siya ngayon.
07:27.4
Pero, ang tanong ko, gusto ko balik na rin.
07:29.3
Yung mga Marcos naman, ano naman ang pagtingin nila ngayon sa mga pink?
07:37.5
That's what they bring out the pink?
07:38.9
Yeah, they're even open to appointing more.
07:42.0
More yellows and more pink.
07:45.1
Actually, may mga ilan na.
07:46.6
Pero, mas open sila.
07:48.1
Lalo na pag nag-escalate itong away with the Duterte.
07:52.5
Ang problema kasi ng mga Marcoses...
07:53.8
Wala silang pool.
07:55.0
Wala silang bench.
07:55.9
Yung kanilang pool,
07:57.1
dahil kapatagal nila wala sa kapangyarihan,
08:01.3
At ikalawa, yung mas recent,
08:04.3
aside from the Duterte,
08:08.8
Ibig sabihin, pwede silang kumuha ron.
08:10.7
Hindi lang for NEDA, hindi lang for housing.
08:13.8
More political positions.
08:16.6
Dahil, tingin ko,
08:18.1
parang ng Cabinet Rebump, sooner or later.
08:21.2
At yung pagkukuhala nila ng ilalagay dyan,
08:24.3
ay hindi ganun ka-deep.
08:26.7
Itong Cabinet Rebump na to, Ronald,
08:29.0
anong bahagi ng Cabinet?
08:31.2
Gayun pinag-usapan natin yung ekonomiya.
08:33.5
Sa tingin mo, ekonomiya magpapalit yan.
08:35.2
Like finance, DTI level?
08:36.8
Yung mga vulnerable dyan, finance,
08:48.1
Yeah, I think DFA could be open.
08:56.1
D-O-T-R bakit? Okay naman si Bautista, hindi ba?
08:58.1
Well, may mga nagpupush na
09:02.1
Naayusin ang airport,
09:04.1
naayusin ang infrastructure.
09:08.1
e, malaking bahagi ng mga commitments ni BBMs abroad,
09:12.1
yung 80-90 billion,
09:14.1
e, magbabata yan sa comparative advantage.
09:16.1
How about si Lutilia?
09:18.1
How about si Lutilia?
09:20.1
Hindi. Very strong yan.
09:22.1
Because of exactly yung sinasabi kong regulatory capture.
09:24.1
Regulatory capture. Okay, okay.
09:26.1
Dahil hindi lang DOE,
09:28.1
hindi lang NEA, hindi lang ERC, hindi lang PSAM,
09:32.1
the whole energy,
09:34.1
ay kontrolado ng isang pamilya.
09:40.1
I wanna give a scenario here.
09:42.1
So, I keep on talking about it.
09:44.1
Let's say Maharlika Sovereign Fund
09:46.1
issue goes really wrong.
09:48.1
Let's say, not level of Najib
09:52.1
Najib version. Clearly, this will be
09:54.1
weaponized by pro-China elements.
09:56.1
This will be weaponized. The reason I'm
09:58.1
asking is that I have friends based in the other
10:00.1
side who are suddenly concerned about
10:02.1
corruption and good governance in the Philippines.
10:04.1
Oh, Marcos is such a corrupt guy.
10:06.1
What deals is he cutting with Biden?
10:08.1
It's like, oh wow, now suddenly you're concerned
10:12.1
Oh, this Akinos and Corazon.
10:14.1
Akinos, horrible people. We love
10:16.1
Marcos. So, now I can see
10:18.1
what's gonna happen, right? If something bad
10:20.1
happens on the corruption front or a scandal,
10:22.1
the pro-China people will
10:24.1
ironically weaponize it.
10:26.1
And Digong is already talking about, you know, remember
10:28.1
whiff of corruption, and now he's talking about rotten
10:30.1
Congress. So, saan tatayang
10:32.1
opposition dito? Because clearly,
10:34.1
if BBM goes down with the Maharlika
10:36.1
or he gets severely weakened by that,
10:38.1
I don't think the winners of that
10:40.1
are necessarily the progressive opposition.
10:42.1
It's the pro-China, the Duterte
10:44.1
people, right? I mean, I'll be just brutally honest,
10:46.1
I'll throw you the scenario because
10:48.1
this is not impossible, right? This scenario
10:50.1
is not totally impossible. I'm not talking about
10:52.1
big 1MDB but semi-scandal
10:54.1
because FDI is down,
10:56.1
BSP revenues are under pressure,
10:58.1
land bank and all their questions about
11:00.1
their liabilities and
11:02.1
liquidity. And we don't know
11:04.1
what's gonna happen with the food inflation and the economy
11:06.1
slowdown. So, if you're
11:08.1
BBM, you have vulnerabilities,
11:10.1
you know, points that could be squeezed
11:12.1
by the pro-China or Duterte
11:16.1
Richard, kung indicative yung
11:18.1
diaryo mo, yung inquiry,
11:26.1
farmally, banatan yung
11:28.1
corruption ng previous government.
11:30.1
Hindi ako magugulat na yan
11:32.1
yung mga dominant narrative
11:34.1
para sa mga pink and yellow.
11:36.1
Pipitigin pa rin nila
11:38.1
itong mga problema sa food
11:44.1
pipitigin pa rin nila itong Maharlika,
11:48.1
ang ire-revive is
11:50.1
the corruption ng previous government.
11:52.1
At nakita ko na yan sa editorial nyo
11:56.1
Tingin ko, isa yan sa possible
12:00.1
ng direction. Ano pa apart from
12:02.1
farmally, Ronald? Ano pa
12:04.1
apart from farmally ang linalabas?
12:08.1
there's farmally, what else?
12:14.1
yung buong COVID,
12:16.1
development of health,
12:22.1
bibili sila ng expired medicines,
12:32.1
nabili na. Yung mismong
12:36.1
binili ng Indonesia for 600 pesos,
12:38.1
binili natin for 3,500 pesos.
12:40.1
Yung Chinese vaccine.
12:46.1
We bought them in their millions.
12:48.1
Pero ang price niyan sa
12:50.1
Indonesia is just 600 pesos.
12:52.1
So, yan yung mga tip of the iceberg.
12:54.1
Sa ilalim niyan, marami.
12:56.1
Actually, alam mo, nagbulat ako, Ronald.
13:00.1
Pinagpuntaan nito ng mga 2020.
13:04.1
What abaya was to
13:10.1
Yung pinakamuhihan mo
13:12.1
na cabinet secretary,
13:14.1
kailangang ibalik si Duke
13:18.1
Tsaka pata ni Arroyo yan, diba?
13:24.1
So, two birds with one stone.
13:28.1
sinasabihin ko kanina.
13:32.1
We were talking about
13:34.1
yung mga pwedeng scandal.
13:36.1
That's a very good point, Ronald.
13:38.1
Ang sinasabi ko lang, Richard.
13:40.1
That's the second very good point you made tonight.
13:42.1
Actually, oo nga. That's a good angle.
13:44.1
Mismo ang China kasi,
13:46.1
kaya hindi rin sila bumuhos,
13:48.1
hindi naman entirely fault nila.
13:52.1
yung kausap nila, puro crap eh.
13:54.1
Nakita nila yung kausap nila,
13:56.1
lulokohin sila eh. Eh sa China,
13:58.1
pag pumasok ka sa ganyang
14:00.1
arrangement, hindi ka lang
14:04.1
You will disappear.
14:06.1
I don't know why.
14:10.1
yung mga Chinese investors
14:12.1
dito nung na-meet nila yung mga yan.
14:14.1
Yung hindi nag-iingat,
14:16.1
meron kang ngayong dito.
14:18.1
Meron kang Parmalee.
14:20.1
Meron kang Michael Yang.
14:22.1
Meron kang ganito.
14:24.1
Yung mga hindi nag-iingat.
14:26.1
Pero yung iba nag-iingat eh.
14:28.1
Dahil nakita nila, hingi ng hingi.
14:30.1
Hingi ng hingi. Wala namang
14:34.1
Nag-offer sila ng
14:36.1
kalaking tulong sa agriculture.
14:38.1
Para ma-modernize yan.
14:42.1
etc. At par, at least
14:44.1
kalahati ng level ng
14:48.1
a game changer na. Dahil
14:50.1
sobrang liit ng ating
14:52.1
harvest per hectare.
14:54.1
Pero nakita nila,
14:58.1
yung mga Pilipino.
15:00.1
Hindi interesado na i-develop
15:02.1
long term. Parang Chinese kasi long term
15:04.1
thinkers eh. Long term strategies eh.
15:06.1
Ang mga Pilipino, paano ba
15:10.1
3 years? Dahil may election
15:12.1
every 3 years eh.
15:14.1
So nakita nila yan. Kinabahan sila.
15:16.1
Kaya hindi mo rin sila totally
15:18.1
masisi. Bakit yung
15:20.1
3 fast-train project hindi natuloy?
15:22.1
Bakit yung 500 hectare industrial
15:24.1
estate supply hindi natuloy?
15:26.1
Etc. Etc. Bakit yung
15:28.1
waste management proposal nila hindi natuloy?
15:30.1
Dahil yung mga kausap nila,
15:32.1
hindi ko nababanggitin
15:34.1
kung sino yung mga
15:36.1
kausap nila. Pero medyo
15:38.1
privy ako eh. Doon sa
15:40.1
pang-aabuso, doon sa
15:42.1
pag-setup. What do you mean
15:44.1
you're privy? Like, were you in
15:46.1
the decision room?
15:48.1
Doon sa ako, may mga leasing
15:50.1
post ako eh. O itong presyo
15:52.1
ng ganitong lupa, biglang
15:56.1
yung lease. Halimbawa,
15:58.1
yung lease for 50 years,
16:00.1
hinihingi nila ngayon lahat ba?
16:02.1
Yung leasing na hindi.
16:04.1
Bakit? Dahil hindi naman sila tatagal
16:06.1
sa gobyerno eh. Doon sa mga
16:08.1
ganun ba? O yung interest rates,
16:12.1
Ay, hindi pala interest rates.
16:22.1
Taasan yung renta.
16:24.1
Marami dyan renta eh.
16:28.1
Kaya pagkausap ko rin yung mga Chinese,
16:30.1
nagreklamo rin sila.
16:32.1
Ang pampalang naman,
16:36.1
Sinuportahan nyo kasi yung mga yan.
16:38.1
O di, napahama kayo.
16:42.1
talagang problema ngayon.
16:44.1
If you talk about corruption,
16:46.1
you can hit in so many directions.
16:48.1
There's so many skeletons in the closet.
16:50.1
And what Ronald is saying,
16:52.1
one way out of this predicament is
16:54.1
you're against corruption, but maybe
16:56.1
you want to focus on what happened
16:58.1
3 years ago or 2 years ago,
17:02.1
There's a reference.
17:04.1
In the same way, you can talk about human rights violations
17:06.1
during martial law.
17:08.1
You can talk about tens of thousands of EJKs
17:10.1
just 2 to 3 years ago.
17:12.1
We can make even a philosophical argument
17:14.1
of not only size but also immediacy
17:16.1
is something that we can look at.
17:18.1
Ikaw Lele, how do you see a way out of this
17:20.1
given how obsessed with corruption are
17:24.1
Yung problema kasi sa Maharlika, tama ka,
17:26.1
vulnerability siya. Hindi dahil malaki siya.
17:28.1
Maharlika is actually quite small.
17:30.1
Baby scandal. Kaya nga sabi ko, baby na.
17:32.1
In the greater scheme of things.
17:34.1
And I don't think pwede mag-tank
17:38.1
Kung kunwari, gumuho yung Maharlika,
17:40.1
it's too small to tank the economy.
17:42.1
What it is, is a major corruption crisis.
17:44.1
It's a headline. It's a big headline.
17:48.1
Lahat naman naman yung mga corruption crisis na,
17:50.1
except siguro yung corruption talaga
17:52.1
noong 1980s na talagang
17:54.1
yung levels of corruption that could really
17:56.1
really fan the flames of an economic crisis.
17:58.1
Yung mga big corruption scandals naman natin,
18:00.1
hindi naman guguho yung ekonomiya dahil sa corruption.
18:02.1
Noong kay ERAP, for example,
18:04.1
yung wetting scandal.
18:06.1
Hindi naman guguho yung ekonomiya mo dahil
18:08.1
may wetting scandal si ERAP. Hindi rin naman
18:10.1
guguho yung ekonomiya mo dahil mayroong
18:12.1
Maharlika scandal. Pero headline siya
18:14.1
dahil nakakainis because it shows
18:16.1
impunity and it shows abuse
18:18.1
of power. And you know,
18:20.1
in legalistic terms,
18:24.1
public trust. Pag sinabi mong
18:26.1
impeachable offense, betrayal of public trust,
18:28.1
nakakainis siya. Kaya ito yung
18:30.1
pwedeng lamunin ng oposisyon at gamitin
18:32.1
against you. So I think,
18:34.1
babalik ako, ang Philippine
18:36.1
economy ever since, I would
18:38.1
say, ever since after the Asian financial
18:40.1
crisis in 1992, growth
18:42.1
trajectory yan. At yun nga, kahit
18:44.1
unggoy ang ilagay mo sa malakanyang, if you
18:46.1
zoom out 20 years, if you zoom out 30 years,
18:48.1
your investments are actually safe
18:50.1
in the Philippines. Hindi yun yung punto
18:54.1
headline natin, hindi long term mag-isip,
18:56.1
nag-zoom in yan. Nag-zoom in yan
18:58.1
dun sa latest scandal, nag-zoom
19:00.1
in yan dun sa latest inflation figures,
19:02.1
nag-zoom in yan dun sa latest
19:06.1
Kaya kahit sabi mo yung long term growth
19:08.1
trajectory, ang inis ng mga Pilipino
19:10.1
ay short term at ito lagi yung vulnerability
19:12.1
ng mga politiko natin.
19:16.1
I agree with Leloy
19:20.1
enough to catalyze
19:24.1
It's not enough. Unless may mga
19:26.1
iba pa siya mga kadikit ng mga issues
19:30.1
Pero for now ay hindi siya
19:34.1
mag-create, hindi siya
19:36.1
mag-catalyze ng crisis.
19:38.1
Nag-agree ako ron.
19:42.1
Tsaka yung region
19:46.1
So kahit pa paano madadala tayo ng region
19:56.1
ako mas political eh.
19:58.1
Alimbawa, kung sakaling magkaroon
20:02.1
Yung ERAP moment kasi hindi namang
20:04.1
bagsak yung ekonomiya nun eh.
20:10.1
Tapos yung popularity ng ERAP, mataas eh.
20:12.1
Mataas pa nun eh.
20:14.1
Hindi naman siya unpopular eh.
20:16.1
Mataas pa siya nun eh. Nung bumagsak siya.
20:18.1
Mataas siya kaya.
20:20.1
Mataas nga. Lagi pinapahalala ni Ronald Toa.
20:22.1
Pero nakita ka nila.
20:24.1
Pinapahalala si ERAP.
20:26.1
Si Ronnie, lagi pinapahalala yan.
20:28.1
Pero even then daw, kinundem na siya
20:32.1
Dahil sinasabi niyang popular pa rin si ERAP
20:34.1
nung um-exit siya.
20:36.1
Tapos nung nakita ko siya,
20:38.1
sabi ko, Mr. President eh,
20:40.1
hindi ko inisip na gano'n kayo
20:42.1
kadaling pabagsakin.
20:44.1
Dahil yung objective conditions
20:46.1
ay hindi naman gano'n eh.
20:48.1
It's the more the
20:54.1
Yung Mindanao War.
21:00.1
At yung mga tao mo
21:02.1
na ang bilis bumaliktad.
21:04.1
Ang naiwan na lang siya, Hagi Dorn eh.
21:06.1
Sa Malacanang eh.
21:08.1
So you think, Ronald, maybe BBM
21:10.1
could be vulnerable to kind of an ERAP moment?
21:12.1
So more a political rather than
21:16.1
Kaya nga, the weteng was not a GDP reducing
21:20.1
It was a big scandal.
21:22.1
Do you think Marcos Jr. could be vulnerable?
21:24.1
Ang problema ni BBM, wala siyang
21:28.1
at magpapakamatay para sa kanya.
21:30.1
Di ba? Wala eh. Nawala yung
21:32.1
Marcos loyalists eh. Wala yung mga brown shirts eh.
21:38.1
At least wala pa.
21:40.1
At least wala pa.
21:42.1
Kaya yung vulnerability
21:44.1
niya ay mas malakas
21:46.1
kesa sa isang Duterte
21:50.1
Baka yung vulnerability niya
21:52.1
sa level ng isang Arroyo.
21:58.1
Pero yung sabi mo, hindi siya
22:02.1
Ibig sabihin, mas malakas siya
22:06.1
Binag-uusapan na natin yung relationship ni Duterte
22:08.1
with the military. I'm actually curious, ano ba ang
22:10.1
inroads nitong Marcos administration na ito
22:12.1
into creating a strong support base
22:14.1
sa military ngayon? Kasi yun yung nagpabagsak
22:16.1
kay ERAP, ultimately, si ano yan?
22:20.1
Angelo? What's his name?
22:24.1
Angie Reyes na ba talaga nagpabagsak kay ERAP?
22:26.1
I don't see na mangyayari
22:28.1
yung ganong level kay Bongbong
22:30.1
in the near future.
22:32.1
One, two, three, four. Una,
22:34.1
may mga grumblings
22:36.1
halimbawa dito sa nangyaring
22:40.1
former Secretary Rio.
22:42.1
May manifesto dyan, karamihan mga
22:44.1
ex-military officers.
22:46.1
Tingin nila hindi nasasagot ng
22:48.1
Comelec o ng gobyerno
22:50.1
yung charges of massive cheating.
22:52.1
Maraming pumirma dyan.
22:54.1
Isa yan sa iniinvoke ni
23:02.1
yung MUP, yung insurance.
23:04.1
Ito yung magalong group
23:06.1
na nagreklamo. Pag may
23:08.1
entitlement ka na sinbinigay sa military
23:10.1
at saka police, mahirap nabawiin.
23:12.1
Mahirap nabawiin.
23:16.1
galit na galit sila
23:22.1
ginagawang pa niya
23:24.1
for the fiscal crisis. Yun ang
23:26.1
binakabandera niya. Yun ang dinademonize niya.
23:30.1
lengwahe dyan ng mga sundalo,
23:32.1
ang tagal namin walang
23:34.1
increase, ang tagal namin nagpapakamatay,
23:36.1
etc. Tapos ngayong nabigyan kami
23:38.1
ng increase ay gusto
23:40.1
niyong bawiin, yan ay
23:42.1
isang possible catalyst
23:44.1
within that section of the population.
23:48.1
last year, maraming
23:50.1
record doon eh. Pero yung mga chief of staff
23:52.1
napalitan, tapos pinalitan ulit, tapos
23:54.1
binalik ulit. Diba?
23:56.1
Tapos yung DND chief
23:58.1
nag-resign dahil hindi niya
24:00.1
nagustuhan yung politics sa
24:02.1
pagpapalit ng chief of staff.
24:06.1
meron pang ibang mga galit.
24:08.1
Mga promotions, etc.
24:12.1
nagugrupo. Nagugrupo yan.
24:14.1
At kung may kakausap dyan
24:16.1
at bibigyan silang direction,
24:26.1
ay hindi inconsequential.
24:28.1
Because si GMA, yan ang longest
24:30.1
president, nine years. Tapos si
24:32.1
Digong, very recent.
24:34.1
So medyo sariwa pa
24:36.1
yung kanilang relasyon
24:38.1
dito sa mga military at saka
24:40.1
kapulisan. Especially Digong.
24:42.1
Especially Digong. Lalo na sa
24:46.1
Yan yung inalagaan niya eh.
24:48.1
At most of this batch 92
24:50.1
ay mga colonels at saka
24:52.1
generals. Bakit bakit yun,
24:54.1
Ronald, batch 92?
24:56.1
Yan yung, alam mo,
24:58.1
yung head ng PSG niya, batch 92.
25:02.1
binigyan niya ng magagandang posisyon.
25:04.1
Game of age na sila. Yan yung
25:06.1
inalagaan niya. Yan yung busog.
25:08.1
Usually kasi may mga
25:10.1
batches na inaalagaan eh.
25:12.1
Si Digong yan ang inalagaan niya.
25:14.1
Yung batch na batch
25:18.1
sa ngayon, si Marcos naman hindi diyang
25:20.1
kumukuha ng mga napopromote.
25:22.1
Kumukuha siya sa batch 93 at saka
25:24.1
sa batch 91. Tinatalo na niya
25:26.1
yung batch na yan dahil hindi niya
25:28.1
sigurado yung loyalty
25:30.1
ng mga yan. So makikita mo rin yung
25:34.1
compared doon sa movement ni
25:36.1
Digong. Etcetera.
25:40.1
mahihirapan yan, kahit
25:42.1
magugnay-ugnayan, kung wala
25:44.1
yung chain of command. Sa ngayon,
25:46.1
yung chain of command ay loyal
25:50.1
And Ronald, let's not forget the big
25:52.1
picture, what was not there during
25:54.1
Arab. There was no new Cold War.
25:56.1
The West Philippine Sea was not such a big issue.
25:58.1
The US is invested in the Marcos
26:00.1
administration. You wanna
26:02.1
hear good stuff about Marcos, talk to the
26:04.1
ambassadors of western democratic
26:06.1
countries. You know, I just
26:08.1
moderated the whole panel.
26:10.1
That's what I'm saying. Exactly.
26:12.1
So mas pro-BPM sila
26:16.1
Obviously. But you get what I'm saying, right?
26:18.1
So that's the big thing.
26:20.1
Si BPM has a foreign backing
26:22.1
in ways no Philippine president had.
26:24.1
Because the Philippines is more important than ever
26:26.1
because of the China element. So I think that's
26:28.1
the difference. But the most important one is
26:30.1
strategic learning. Everyone learned
26:32.1
doon sa kapalpakan ni Arab.
26:34.1
That's why the DDS, I mean if you
26:36.1
follow the thinking Pinoy people, they always
26:38.1
talk about avoiding the ETSA 2
26:40.1
scenario, right? They always talk about that.
26:42.1
So they were very prepared for that.
26:44.1
So Ronald is right. Walang warm bodies
26:46.1
si BPM. But I even doubt
26:50.1
Like where was the DDS
26:52.1
protest or rallies in support
26:54.1
of Digong throughout 6 years? I saw none.
26:56.1
Like there was one na nagdala
26:58.1
sa ETSA 2, umuwi na nung umulan.
27:02.1
exaggerated yung warm bodies ni Digong.
27:04.1
Unless Richard, unless a religious
27:06.1
group mobilizes. Ah well, ibang
27:08.1
usapan na yan. That's
27:10.1
ibang usapan na yan. I'm talking about
27:12.1
really brown shirt supporters, mga
27:14.1
ganyan na. Ibang usapan yung tactical allies
27:16.1
and all. Muno sa Mindanao meron pa.
27:18.1
Of course, I'm talking
27:20.1
about the seat of power.
27:22.1
Well, I could say
27:24.1
if that's the question, samin din sa
27:26.1
Baguio or sa Ilocos Norte
27:28.1
patay kay anti-Marcos
27:30.1
kahit hindi nalabas.
27:32.1
Nalabas pagka Ilocano mo Richard.
27:36.1
pag natanggal si BPM,
27:38.1
kunyari si Sarah naging president,
27:40.1
magra-rally na sa lahat kami sa Baguio.
27:42.1
Alam mo sa Baguio ngayon,
27:44.1
meron mga unitim,
27:46.1
picture ni BPM at saka picture ni Sarah.
27:48.1
And then in Ilocano sa babay,
27:50.1
parang nakakainis naman
27:52.1
yung babaeng yan. Alam mo yung mga ganyan
27:54.1
sa bago na ngayon.
27:56.1
Di ba binuburang ang mga babaeng ni Sarah?
27:58.1
Nakakainis tong babaeng yan in Ilocano.
28:02.1
I'm telling you, don't bring
28:04.1
vizmin. Meron din kaming Baguio
28:06.1
in Ilocos. Malaban din kami.
28:08.1
So I think everyone learned from that experience.
28:10.1
But Lelo, I'm telling you,
28:12.1
if there's one area that BPM can be
28:14.1
very confident is
28:16.1
invested ang superpowers
28:18.1
sa kanya. Not only one, but also Japan,
28:20.1
but also Europe, but also Australia.
28:22.1
So swerte rin si BPM
28:24.1
in that sense. So I don't think he should worry much
28:26.1
about the military. And yun yung
28:28.1
misreading ni Digong. He thought just because
28:30.1
may petronage sa nun,
28:32.1
that it will eat out the geopolitics.
28:34.1
The geopolitics is big because US
28:36.1
has a lot of money.
28:38.1
Japan has a lot of money.
28:40.1
Very influential in US
28:42.1
sa ating military establishment.
28:44.1
Even na yan, of course. 100%.
28:46.1
Ang president mo dito, yung presidente,
28:48.1
nung old cold war.
28:50.1
Dahil... Yeah, exactly.
28:52.1
That's a good point.
28:54.1
Balikan natin yung libro na
28:56.1
Waltzing with the Dictator ni Raymond Bonner.
28:58.1
Isa lang naman ang punto niya dun.
29:00.1
Kahit anong gawin ni Apo Lakay,
29:02.1
kaya niyang gawin for as long as
29:04.1
trinete niya yung US na kung di nyo kami
29:06.1
supportan, you're out of Subic, you're out of Clark.
29:08.1
And because of that, he could get away with
29:10.1
murder. He could get away with anything.
29:12.1
So, this is probably a
29:14.1
tamer version of that. But this Marcos
29:16.1
can stay in power the same way
29:18.1
his father stayed in power. By fighting
29:20.1
the cold war. By fighting the cold war
29:22.1
in favor of the Americans. But I would also
29:24.1
argue that it's even more interesting because
29:26.1
during cold war, there were only two
29:28.1
superpowers. Now, there are many powers
29:30.1
in this part of the world. Japan is emerging as a
29:32.1
new defense power. So, kunyari
29:34.1
mag-away si BBM at si Biden,
29:36.1
I'm sure the Japanese will try
29:38.1
to mediate the same way that Abe mediated
29:40.1
between Trump and Digong, right?
29:42.1
So, what I'm saying is that hindi lang US
29:44.1
ang invested. So, it's waltzing with
29:46.1
multiple powers. With
29:48.1
Australia, with Japan, even with India,
29:50.1
Korea, all of them like BBM eh.
29:52.1
Because BBM is good for their geopolitics,
29:54.1
for their interest in this part of the world.
29:56.1
That's why napagod si BBM.
29:58.1
Siyempre, he had to go to...
30:02.1
He loved me so much!
30:04.1
So much love! I cannot
30:06.1
take it! So much love from
30:08.1
the pute. So much love from the pute.
30:10.1
Tapos talo ka pang Hawaii, love from
30:12.1
the Ilocanos. Di na
30:14.1
na-lovebomb ka for one week.
30:20.1
ng statement si Browner
30:24.1
destabilization at saka possible
30:26.1
coup, nang magkaiba yun, ha?
30:30.1
Akala ko Brownlee.
30:32.1
The last player na
30:34.1
na-dupe. Ang dami mga ambasador
30:36.1
ang tatawag sa akin, nagtitext.
30:38.1
Gusto magpa-update dahil concerned
30:42.1
So baka may mangyari.
30:48.1
Hindi lang itong mga North Americans.
30:50.1
Ito ay Europeans.
30:52.1
Exactly! Yun nga!
30:54.1
Traditionally critical
30:56.1
sa Marcos. Tawag naman!
30:58.1
Pero kung anong sila,
31:02.1
sent ng meeting, text,
31:04.1
nagpa-update. Talagang very
31:06.1
concerned sila na baka may mangyari nga.
31:08.1
Kaya nga Ronald, hashtag
31:10.1
protect BBM nga yung joke ko last year
31:12.1
pa lang eh. I was talking to some Marcos
31:14.1
loyalist people and they're saying,
31:16.1
kawawa si BBM. He inherited so much
31:18.1
problems from these people from Davao.
31:24.1
Konya pro Marcos.
31:26.1
Old school loyalist.
31:28.1
BBM, so much problem he has
31:30.1
to deal with. We have to be nice to him,
31:32.1
protect him, take care. And then suddenly
31:34.1
hashtag protect. Next thing I know,
31:36.1
ganun din yung mga kabila na sa
31:38.1
foreign powers. Marcos,
31:40.1
he's a good ally. We need to protect him.
31:42.1
I'm like, what's going on here?
31:46.1
parang out of business tayo
31:48.1
pare. Tayo lang walang
31:50.1
kampo talaga eh. Kawawa talaga tayo.
31:52.1
Alright, on that note, thank you very
31:54.1
much si Ronald. Wala na eh.
31:56.1
Na 6am club na si
31:58.1
Ronald. Ronald, maaga ka for 6am
32:04.1
5 hours na lang, pwede ka na ulit
32:06.1
mag-interview. Nasanay naman ako sa
32:08.1
slave labor, di ba? Ay, patay.
32:10.1
Nagparinig na naman.
32:12.1
Nagparinig na naman.
32:16.1
Paki-explain sa kanya, makan yung
32:18.1
agent fee. Kami ni Cristiano
32:20.1
nagpasikat sa kanya. Dapat nga may
32:22.1
10% kami. Ako na yung
32:28.1
Dapat meron akong
32:30.1
cut sa mga commission mo dyan.
32:34.1
pinahirapan dahil ang dami nag-iimbita.
32:36.1
Kinala mo si Agot?
32:40.1
Ago and Art Leloy.
32:42.1
Dyan sa Bay Area.
32:44.1
Nag-one, mga podcast.
32:48.1
nag-podcast ako. Nagulat ako,
32:50.1
15,000 yung viewers.
32:54.1
Ito yung pangalan niya.
32:58.1
Pedalizo. Kinala ni
33:02.1
Ano ba? Ano ba yan?
33:12.1
sa kabila. Although
33:14.1
very independent naman ngayon.
33:20.1
We'll check that. Thank you very much, gentlemen.
33:22.1
It's sabat day already. I have to
33:24.1
zone out. Thank you so much.
33:26.1
Maraming salamat. Nagreklamo na yung mga...
33:28.1
Can you imagine? More than half a thousand
33:30.1
people are still live watching us.
33:32.1
At 2 a.m. almost.
33:34.1
Kanyang kanila kamahal, Leloy.
33:38.1
Leloy, ikaw yung minamahal nila.
33:40.1
Kaya these people are all here. Hindi kami. Hindi kami.
33:42.1
Hindi kami. Hindi kami. Hindi kami.
33:44.1
Thank you, bro. Thank you so much, guys.
33:46.1
Maraming salamat. Thank you.
33:52.1
Gising ang maga next time.
33:54.1
Bro, sorry. Masyadong crazy.
33:56.1
Masyadong crazy naman yung 7 a.m. mo.
33:58.1
Maybe we can do evening your time next time.
34:00.1
Sige. Let's think about it.
34:02.1
Parang naman we have one or two before
34:04.1
Christmas sana. Okay.
34:06.1
Pauwi na rin ako. Pauwi ako. December 11.
34:08.1
Ayaw pala eh. Hindi.
34:10.1
Let's do it in studio. In person na tayo.
34:12.1
Okay. Leloy, tell me the schedule.
34:14.1
In person na tayo. Next one. Okay.
34:16.1
Ako nang bahala. Talk to you guys soon.
34:18.1
Mga ka, sama ka sa Convoy.
34:24.1
Thank you. God bless.
