01:13.6
Pakisabi guys, ako kay mga audio natin.
01:16.6
Ito, ito, ito mga kameta, bago matapos ang linggong ito, medyo i-recap natin yung mga big developments dyan.
01:23.3
Pero pag-usapan din natin itong mga latest nangyari sa West Philippines eh
01:26.1
because kung nagiginig po kayo sa news, malalaman nyo na actually kaka-inaugurate po natin ng bagong facilities.
01:33.5
May mga bago tayong mga pasilidad dyan sa Kalyan Group of Islands,
01:37.8
particularly dyan sa Tito Island, gumawa po tayo ng bagong Coast Guard facility.
01:44.1
If I'm not missing, two-story Coast Guard facility.
01:47.5
At mahalaga ito dahil pinapakita ito na hindi tayo sumusuko at tuloy-tuloy po ang laban natin dito sa Pilipinas.
01:55.4
In fact, mga kameta, pag titignan nyo, pag titignan nyo mga kameta, gumagana.
01:59.7
Okay, thank you kay Sir Ion, gumagana yung audio natin, tinitest lang natin.
02:04.3
Klara ba yung audio natin? Pakisabi ko yung audio natin.
02:07.3
Pasensya na mga kameta, nagtitest-testin tayo.
02:11.1
Anyway, balikan natin itong mga kameta because ito mukhang palaban na talagang Pilipinas eh.
02:18.2
Mukhang palaban na talagang Pilipinas at hindi lang tayong palaban.
02:22.1
Medyo, ano na, medyo...
02:25.4
worried yung mga kapitbahay natin na baka magkaroon na tayo ng giyera dito
02:29.7
kung tuloy-tuloy ang ganitong dynamics.
02:31.8
And then we also have this situation na kung saan si Secretary Gilbert Jotora sinasabi niya
02:37.0
na parang halos useless na kung kausapin natin in China.
02:40.4
But of course, in a very specific context, pag-usapan natin yan.
02:44.1
But this is big. This is big, mga kameta.
02:46.9
Because what we are dealing with is what you can call as gaslighting.
02:55.4
Because may mga scholars, mga scholars ng motherland, yan.
03:01.1
Mga ganyan na experts, mga scholars na wala naman scholarly output na
03:06.3
ewan ko kung paano naging scholar mo yan.
03:09.0
Alam mo, hindi ka maging expert kung nag-graduate ka lang na isang degree.
03:12.2
You know, to be an expert, you have to publish ISK, Scopus, high-level book publications, mga ganyan level.
03:19.8
Anyway, putting that aside, I'm in free marketplace of ideas naman.
03:23.8
Anyone is entitled to their opinion.
03:26.3
Pero bago mo nang tawag yung sarili mong expert or magpatawag ka ng sarili mong expert,
03:29.6
eh medyo, medyo ano, magpakita tayo ng gilas.
03:32.9
Magpakita tayo ng scholarly output.
03:34.8
Hindi lang yung mga thesis lang natin sa tabi-tabi or yung mga sinubmit lang natin bilang estudyante.
03:40.9
Ang mahalaga, yung ano na produce mo bilang isang academic, isang researcher, isang scholar at the highest levels.
03:47.7
Including ISK, Scopus, mga peer-reviewed publications.
03:51.3
But anyway, what are we supposed to talk about, mga kameta?
03:55.4
Okay, kitang-kita na medyo mahaba yung araw natin but I hope I'm going to be sensible in the coming few minutes and so.
04:04.3
But I'm talking about something very sensitive kasi pag titignan natin itong mga kameta, marami sa ating mga kababayan ay nagagalit na,
04:12.0
naiinis na dahil sa kanilang palagay, hindi tayo tinutulungan ng ating mga kapitbahay.
04:19.0
At may mga nagsasabi pa na parang useless itong ASEAN at yung mga kapitbahay natin sa ASEAN ay mga,
04:25.4
pro-China lahat, ganito yung rhetoric.
04:28.8
And then sa kabilang banda naman, may mga kasama tayo dyan, lalo yung mga ka-DS natin dyan na
04:33.0
tinitwist ang mga pinagsasabi ng mga kapitbahay natin para sasabihin naman na,
04:39.3
ayan, tignan mo naman, tayo lang walang nakukuha, lahat sila pro-China, friendly sa China, kaya masaya ang buhay nila.
04:46.1
Now let me tell you, mga kameta, mali lahat yung mga taong yan.
04:50.4
Alright, mali lahat yung mga taong yan at I will explain to you why.
04:54.3
Alright, I'll explain to you why.
04:55.4
On multiple levels.
04:57.3
And this is very important because recently, itong leader po ng Singapore,
05:04.0
you know, a very good and very sound and very articulate leader, said something about na,
05:08.3
parang nag-caution siya na ingat tayo doon sa nangyayari sa West Philippine Sea.
05:12.5
I think it was a very subtle cautionary statement, etc.
05:16.3
Pero na-twist ito ng mga propagandist dito sa Pilipinas, lalo yung mga ka-DS natin,
05:22.0
ng mga others na kung gaya,
05:24.4
Uy, tignan mo, batis.
05:25.4
Singapore, ganyan, ganyan, ganyan, ganyan.
05:26.7
Okay, let's put things into context, mga kameta.
05:29.0
Alright, let's put things into context.
05:30.4
Let's be very, very clear about this.
05:33.3
Alam natin, pagdating sa Singapore, they're very sensitive.
05:35.5
They don't want to interfere in our domestic affairs.
05:37.5
And I don't think Prime Minister Lee meant it in an offensive way.
05:41.1
I don't think he meant to lecture us, per se.
05:43.0
He just expressed in a very genuine way as a fellow as in country, yung direksyon ng nangyayari sa West Philippine Sea.
05:49.5
So, in fairness to him.
05:50.7
And I think if given the chance, they're going to explain more.
05:56.8
O, yan, mga kamekos.
05:58.4
Mamabalik na yung mga kamekos.
06:00.1
Pero, mga kamekos, eto.
06:02.7
Huwag na natin gamitin ng mekos, mga kameta.
06:04.9
Kasi pag gamitin natin yung mekos-mekos na yun, mga met,
06:07.3
dun sa masisira yung mga shorts na ginagawa natin, di ba?
06:11.4
Magandang soft title natin.
06:12.7
Eto, eto, eto, eto.
06:14.1
Mga kameta, we have to put things into perspective.
06:16.0
Because if you look at the ASEAN,
06:19.4
may kanya-kanya tayong diskarte
06:20.9
on how to deal with the West Philippine Sea disputes.
06:27.4
karamihan ng mga bansa sa ASEAN ay walang direct disputes with China
06:31.1
sa West Philippine Sea.
06:33.7
So, ang mga claimant lang na nag-aasin na active ay
06:36.7
Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam.
06:39.9
Philippines and Vietnam.
06:42.3
Now, having said that,
06:44.1
may mga ka-ASEAN member din tayo na napaka-dependent
06:47.9
sa aid from China
06:51.7
walang interest dyan sa West Philippine Sea.
06:55.4
Yung mga countries na katulad ng Cambodia
06:57.4
or landlocked countries like Laos
06:59.0
or yung mga sobrang malaya na sa atin
07:01.4
katulad ng Myanmar
07:02.1
which is sa gitna ng isang civil war.
07:05.2
And then, you have other countries
07:07.0
na influential sa region
07:10.3
and internationally
07:11.2
katulad ng Indonesia,
07:12.6
katulad ng Singapore,
07:13.9
katulad ng Thailand
07:14.6
na walang direct disputes sa South China Sea
07:16.9
at West Philippine Sea
07:17.7
pero may interest sila sa stabilidad
07:21.6
So, we have to distinguish that.
07:23.6
And depended dun sa kanyang geographical location,
07:25.4
depended dun sa kanyang kalidad
07:28.3
ng kanyang relationship with China
07:30.2
at depended dun sa kanyang threat perceptions
07:34.0
at yung kanyang level of security cooperation
07:38.5
with other partners and allies and powers
07:41.2
katulad ng United States,
07:42.8
iba yung kanyang positioning dito sa West Philippine Sea issue.
07:46.0
So, the first thing we have to keep in mind is
07:48.2
it's impossible to get exactly the same points of views
07:53.4
because sobrang diverse po
07:55.6
ang level ng interest natin
07:57.2
vis-a-vis the West Philippine Sea
07:58.3
sa loob ng ASEAN.
07:59.8
Pangalawa, geographically speaking,
08:02.7
ang Pilipinas po ay very exceptional unique country.
08:06.2
ang Pilipinas ay mas malapit sa Taipei
08:08.1
from Manila, right?
08:11.0
Isang oras pa lang na sa Taipei ka na.
08:12.6
Ang layo ng Singapore,
08:13.7
ang layo ng Malaysia,
08:14.7
ang layo ng Jakarta,
08:15.9
ang layo ng Bangkok.
08:17.5
Tuwis na rin, malayo rin na rin yung Hanoi.
08:18.9
Three, four hours.
08:19.9
Pero Taipei, one hour, nandun ka na.
08:21.3
So, kitang-kita mo na yung geography natin.
08:25.6
at dito, exceptional pa rin ng Pilipinas,
08:27.4
tayo po ay isang treaty ally ng United States.
08:30.4
Ang mga ibang ASEAN countries ay hindi.
08:32.4
I would argue that yung treaty alliance
08:34.0
ng Thailand at sa United States
08:36.7
ay medyo questionable yung treaty alliance nila.
08:38.5
It doesn't have the same structure
08:41.1
as yung treaty alliance na meron ng America at Pilipinas
08:43.9
at meron ng America at Japan, for instance.
08:46.3
Although, iba rin yung sa Japan at sa Pilipinas
08:48.3
on a certain level.
08:49.2
But, sobrang malayo
08:50.5
yung kalidad at yung kasaysayan
08:53.4
shape ng Thailand at Ustado Senidos
08:55.6
kumpara sa relasyon ng Pilipinas
08:57.4
at Ustado Senidos.
09:00.1
Now, we also have to keep in mind,
09:03.4
na ang bawat bansa sa loob ng ASEAN
09:05.8
ay umiiba din ang kanilang mga stance
09:08.5
sa West Philippine Sea.
09:10.4
Tingnan mo yung Pilipinas pa lang.
09:13.4
Kay President Aquino,
09:14.6
dinala ang China sa International Court.
09:17.7
At nagsign ng ETCA.
09:19.1
Kay Digong, binabaliwala,
09:21.2
at least si Digong mismo,
09:23.4
ang ating arbitration award,
09:28.7
Hindi nga binabaliwala lang eh.
09:31.1
Ano eh, ginaganyan na eh.
09:32.6
Binabastos pa yung ating alayansa
09:35.1
So, ang layo nung policy yan ni Digong
09:37.3
from policy yan ng Aquino.
09:38.7
And then, ngayon naman si BBM,
09:40.0
iniiba na naman niya kay Digong.
09:42.7
or medyo new dialectical synthesis
09:45.2
ang ginagawa niya
09:46.1
to be Hegelian about this.
09:47.3
So, kung titignan mo,
09:49.3
yung position ng isang bansa nga,
09:51.0
kadawalan ng Pilipinas,
09:52.0
ay paiba-iba rin.
09:53.4
So, unrealistic po
09:54.9
na mag-expect tayo
09:56.0
ng exactly the same position
09:57.9
among ASEAN countries.
09:59.7
So, that should be our
10:01.0
factual recognition.
10:02.7
Yun ang dapat first order of things.
10:07.0
I-recognize natin
10:08.2
na sobrang diverse po
10:09.5
yung points of view natin
10:10.8
at saka yung threat perception natin
10:12.0
at umiiba yung position
10:13.9
ng bawat ng bansa.
10:15.1
Now, may mga na-publish tayo.
10:16.2
Marami tayo na-publish dito
10:17.2
including yung isang
10:17.9
latest publication natin
10:19.1
with Latrobe University
10:20.1
where I talk about
10:20.9
50 shades of hedging.
10:23.4
Which brings me to the issue
10:24.5
of hedging, mga kameta.
10:26.7
yung konsepto ng hedging
10:27.7
is very, very important.
10:28.9
Ano ibig sabihin ng hedging,
10:31.4
Sa ilalim ng hedging strategy,
10:35.5
kahit ikaw ay may aliansa
10:37.6
or ikaw ay napaka
10:38.7
malapit sa China,
10:41.5
pag titignan mo lahat
10:42.4
ng mga ASEAN countries,
10:44.1
may sarili silang version
10:46.3
At kung titignan mo yung hedging,
10:47.7
ito ay isang strategy
10:49.7
kung saan medyo ilang ka,
10:53.4
o hindi ka 100% sure.
10:56.4
under a hedging strategy
10:57.6
is that what you're trying
10:59.1
is that, you know,
11:01.6
you're leaning on one power
11:03.1
against the other power,
11:04.6
but you're not burning
11:05.9
with the other superpower.
11:08.6
So you're trying to find
11:09.6
this perfect balance,
11:13.4
competing superpowers.
11:15.7
in the case of the Philippines,
11:16.5
dahil treaty ally natin
11:17.7
ang United States,
11:18.4
parating nakal-lean tayo
11:20.0
Even yung panahon ng digong,
11:21.1
even during the time
11:22.1
of Rodrigo Duterte,
11:23.4
despite all his efforts,
11:25.5
we're still the U.S. treaty ally.
11:27.4
So meron tayong mga
11:28.2
networks of interdependence
11:30.2
na naka-embed tayo
11:31.7
dun sa bilateral alliance natin.
11:34.5
we are leaning towards U.S.,
11:35.7
but you're trying to reach out
11:37.2
medyo parang boxing yun.
11:39.3
Nakal-lean back ka
11:40.1
to the right, to the left,
11:41.1
depending on ano mo,
11:43.3
naghahanap ka ng range mo,
11:45.0
Parang nag-MMA tayo.
11:46.9
So, a hedging strategy
11:48.4
is kind of a third way.
11:51.7
is neither choosing
11:52.9
is neither choosing
11:53.4
between this side
11:54.3
against that side.
11:56.2
tinatawag na balancing,
11:59.1
number one superpower
12:00.4
against the rising superpower,
12:01.8
or it's also not bandwagoning,
12:03.7
meaning siding with the
12:04.6
rising superpower
12:05.4
against the declining superpower.
12:07.6
It's a kind of a third way.
12:08.7
It's kind of a middle ground,
12:10.0
whereby you're not
12:10.8
fully aligning with one side,
12:12.5
but you're leaning more
12:13.3
to one side than the other.
12:14.8
It's asymmetrical.
12:17.8
depende sa issue,
12:19.0
depende sa panahon,
12:20.0
depende sa threat perception.
12:22.8
war-like situation,
12:26.2
useful itong hedging strategy na ito
12:28.2
because it gives you room
12:30.2
It allows smaller countries
12:31.2
like the Philippines
12:31.8
to exercise a lot of
12:33.0
strategic autonomy.
12:36.4
iba yung maging hedging strategy
12:37.9
ng isang bansa katulad ng Malaysia
12:39.3
na historically very strong
12:41.1
economic relationship with China
12:42.5
at hindi gano'ng kaganda
12:44.2
yung kanilang security
12:45.2
or even cultural relationship
12:47.4
with the United States.
12:48.9
O, alam natin na Malaysia
12:49.7
bilang isang Muslim majority country,
12:51.8
marami silang disagreement
12:52.7
with the United States
12:56.4
so on and so forth.
12:59.4
Muslim majority din,
13:00.5
pero medyo iba yung positioning.
13:01.8
Kasama din sila sa G20,
13:03.6
medyo they see themselves
13:04.3
as a rising superpower
13:05.4
or rising great power,
13:06.7
at least middle power na sila.
13:08.3
And iba rin sa Vietnam
13:09.2
because ang Vietnam,
13:10.1
even ipalaban sa China,
13:11.8
dahil sa geography niya,
13:13.2
next to China lang siya,
13:14.9
may direct border siya,
13:16.3
meron din siya maritime
13:17.1
disputes with China.
13:19.8
dalawa yung point of vulnerability.
13:22.7
tatlo yung point of vulnerability
13:24.8
because katabi rin niya
13:25.7
yung mga pro-China countries
13:26.9
or allegedly pro-China countries.
13:29.5
pagdating sa Vietnam,
13:30.9
a huge part of yung kanilang mga imports
13:33.2
ay galing sa China.
13:35.2
Yung mga imports na ginagamit nila,
13:36.4
yung mga intermediate goods
13:37.4
na ginagamit nila
13:38.2
to make the manufacturing
13:39.7
and export products
13:40.4
na pinapadala sa West.
13:41.3
So, napakalaki yung dependence
13:42.7
ng Vietnam sa China.
13:45.3
hindi pitsugi ng Vietnam,
13:46.9
hindi sila patalo,
13:47.9
so lumalaban sila.
13:49.4
there's another thing
13:49.9
that makes Vietnam unique
13:50.8
in its own sense.
13:51.7
They're a communist country.
13:54.3
communist-to-communist relationship
13:55.8
So, I can go on and on
13:56.8
and on and on, mga kameta,
13:58.5
showing to you that
13:59.5
it's not an either-or positioning.
14:02.1
It's not a pro-China,
14:03.1
pro-US positioning.
14:05.3
Cambodia ay medyo
14:06.3
sobrang malapit na.
14:10.3
sobrang nakaganon
14:12.4
Not totally siding
14:13.6
with China against US,
14:15.2
hindi ito alliance,
14:16.2
pero sobrang nakalin siya dito.
14:17.8
Ang Pilipinas naman,
14:18.7
medyo parang mirror.
14:25.1
ay medyo nasa gitna.
14:27.1
kanilang positioning.
14:32.3
So, this is what you call
14:34.9
So, you're not fully aligning
14:36.0
with one superpower
14:36.7
against the other.
14:38.5
lahat tayong mga kameta
14:46.9
So, what we're hoping
14:47.8
to do, mga kameta,
14:49.7
that kind of situation.
14:51.7
So, it's what you call
14:53.4
hedging strategy.
14:55.7
at ang konsept ng hedging
14:57.9
financial sector.
15:00.4
I mean, yung hedging
15:01.2
na ginagawa ng mga investors.
15:02.8
You don't put all your
15:03.9
eggs in one basket.
15:05.1
You don't put all your
15:06.3
money in one product.
15:09.9
a diversified portfolio.
15:13.4
medyo mag-lean ka na more
15:15.5
compared to this product
15:16.8
if ever hindi nag-work
15:17.7
itong investment mo.
15:18.6
So, it's kind of the same.
15:19.5
It's kind of similar.
15:22.9
full-blown Cold War
15:26.6
hedging is the most
15:27.3
reasonable strategy.
15:30.3
potentially Philippines
15:34.1
and then Cambodia
15:34.9
to the other side.
15:37.9
Now, you can look
15:39.0
in a multipolar sense.
15:40.7
even Russia was very powerful.
15:42.1
So, Myanmar and Vietnam
15:43.0
ay napakalapit sa Russia.
15:45.1
for a very long time
15:45.9
napakalapit sa Russia.
15:47.4
Mas malapit pa sa Russia
15:48.4
kasi China and United States.
15:50.7
So, medyo triangular.
15:51.7
Yung kanilang hedging.
15:53.3
Again, it's kind of similar
15:54.9
mixed martial arts.
15:56.4
So, you have to hedge.
15:58.7
So, this is not about
15:59.9
pro-China, pro-US person
16:08.3
parang gusto niyang
16:10.0
pipilitin na papunta
16:13.3
Pero, hirap na hirap siya
16:14.2
kasi andun yung mga
16:19.8
institutional linkages
16:22.3
Philippines and US.
16:23.2
Kaya medyo nahihirapan siya.
16:24.1
So, in short mga kameta,
16:27.3
essentially 50 shades
16:28.9
Different countries in ASEAN
16:31.0
one power against the other
16:31.9
without necessarily
16:34.5
Now, interesting yung mga kameta,
16:36.2
ang problema kasi dito
16:37.6
na hindi nag-agree
16:41.0
Kasi yung policy natin
16:41.9
ngayon sa Pilipinas
16:47.1
nagiging problematic
16:48.0
yung relationship natin
16:52.7
And just to give you
16:53.2
an idea how serious
16:54.0
the situation has become,
16:55.6
Defense Secretary
16:56.1
of the Philippines
16:56.8
openly questioning
16:58.2
of direct diplomacy
16:59.3
at this point in time.
17:01.4
I find that interesting
17:03.6
the Department of Foreign Affairs
17:06.4
But shortly after this,
17:10.7
Because Singapore
17:11.0
I think is a very
17:13.2
this conversation
17:13.9
one way or another
17:16.6
by the Singaporean leader.
17:17.7
So, medyo nandito na tayo
17:20.1
kung saan may mga
17:22.5
this is not the full context
17:24.2
Defense Secretary
17:25.1
saan in fairness.
17:39.4
Defense Secretary
17:41.3
that even implies
17:42.3
anything close to this.
17:45.4
in fairness naman,
17:46.3
marami mga caveats,
17:47.4
explanation, etc.
17:48.6
But to openly question
17:50.6
of direct diplomacy
17:51.6
that's quite unique.
17:53.1
You don't have anything
17:53.6
like that in ASEAN.
17:56.1
if this is already
17:57.0
beyond hedging na.
18:00.7
And this is almost saying,
18:02.5
sa kampo ng Amerika,
18:04.6
Some could interpret it
18:06.3
I don't think that's what
18:07.1
the Defense Secretary
18:07.8
per se is saying.
18:09.1
But nevertheless,
18:10.3
Gibo's statements
18:14.2
I cannot remember
18:15.3
any other Defense Secretary
18:16.5
in recent memory.
18:17.3
I mean, of course,
18:18.0
we can talk about
18:18.6
Vietnam-China in 1979 war
18:21.6
yung mga Johnson-Southreeft.
18:24.1
We can talk about.
18:24.7
But in recent memory,
18:27.0
So, ito yung sinabi
18:28.3
It's not fruitful.
18:30.0
bilateral discussion
18:30.9
but a time when we prove
18:32.9
this is my personal belief
18:34.5
that formal bilateral discussion
18:35.9
should only be held
18:37.2
that they are sincere.
18:40.0
you have a situation
18:42.1
where you're saying,
18:43.2
diplomacy makes sense
18:43.9
if there's sincerity.
18:46.3
I think the headline
18:47.2
is not doing justice
18:50.0
meant it in a much more
18:51.6
pero aminin natin,
18:52.9
sobrang layo na natin
18:55.9
yung ETCA basis access
18:57.1
na binibigay natin
18:58.0
sa mga Amerikano.
19:00.6
No other ASEAN country
19:02.3
comes close to that.
19:06.6
meron tayo ngayon
19:07.2
mga aerial patrols
19:08.4
na kasama ang Amerika.
19:10.6
mga aerial patrols natin.
19:11.7
You have no other
19:13.2
doing anything close to that.
19:14.5
You're looking at
19:15.2
joint patrols with Australia
19:17.1
quadrilateral joint patrols
19:19.1
with other countries,
19:22.3
this is extremely unique.
19:23.7
We don't have any other
19:24.8
country in the region
19:25.6
who comes anywhere
19:31.2
that we have right now.
19:46.4
you have to be very specific
19:49.8
Actually, okay to.
19:52.5
Okay yung ABS version,
19:55.5
medyo questionable
19:56.3
yung nakita kong version.
19:57.4
Medyo correct naman.
19:58.4
Yung mga kapsad natin dyan,
20:00.1
correct yung mga Isabela
20:01.8
kagayaan, ano na yan.
20:03.3
Medyo ilokano tayo
20:04.1
kasi particular tayo
20:10.3
who has anything close to that.
20:11.4
So, unique talaga tayo dyan.
20:12.8
Yung joint patrol,
20:15.1
na-post natin dyan.
20:16.5
Tingnan nyo naman,
20:17.3
nag-aerial patrols na tayo
20:18.8
with the United States.
20:22.4
na may ginagawang ganyan
20:24.5
ibang bansa nakasama
20:25.6
na nag-aerial patrol
20:26.9
habang may active dispute
20:28.7
with another superpower
20:33.0
tigda mo yung balikat
20:33.7
ng exercises natin
20:35.3
Lampas sa 15,000 troops
20:37.2
galing hindi lang
20:38.3
sa United States,
20:40.7
galing sa Australia,
20:41.6
even United Kingdom
20:43.4
So, biglang ang Pilipinas
20:46.8
Again, this is very unique
20:48.7
anything like that
20:52.0
some are wondering
20:52.6
if we're not only
20:54.0
leaning to one side
20:55.4
against the other,
20:56.1
but we're fully aligning
21:04.9
trend lines continue,
21:05.9
medyo papunta na tayo
21:08.7
having said that,
21:13.2
There are interesting
21:14.9
that we can look at.
21:15.8
And I'll shortly,
21:18.7
Because the case of
21:19.3
Singapore is very
21:19.9
instructive and interesting
21:22.5
yung kanilang situation
21:23.3
because to begin with,
21:26.4
territorial disputes
21:27.2
with China directly
21:31.6
and investment ties
21:32.9
in ways that was not
21:33.7
the case in the previous.
21:35.2
yun nga yung problema eh.
21:37.2
iba yung strategy
21:39.7
because one big reason
21:41.7
panahon ni Digong,
21:42.9
ng big ticket investments
21:45.3
high speed railway nila?
21:46.2
Saan yung Mindanao
21:49.3
binawala lang yata tayo
21:50.4
or sobrang palpak
21:51.5
yung gobyerno natin
21:52.2
to properly negotiate
21:56.2
investment strategy
22:01.1
eto yung gusto kong pakita
22:03.2
sinasabi natin mga kameta
22:17.6
isang week lang yan.
22:35.9
anything like that
22:36.6
between any other
22:45.6
having said that,
22:56.5
things are interesting.
22:58.0
pagdating sa level
22:59.0
of security cooperation
23:01.2
of security cooperation,
23:04.2
Singapore may have
23:05.2
it better than us.
23:06.6
their relationship
23:10.7
let me explain to you
23:11.5
the case of Singapore
23:12.2
because this is a
23:12.7
very interesting case
23:19.5
Singapore is that
23:20.1
they have very strong
23:21.0
investment relations
23:22.1
and they have also
23:22.8
invested big time
23:24.1
Mayaman na bansang
23:26.4
they want to have
23:30.4
in all major markets
23:31.7
and production centers.
23:33.4
some are wondering
23:34.1
whether the investment
23:40.4
has been as successful
23:43.1
conversation we can have
23:44.1
but nevertheless,
23:44.7
it's hard to deny
23:48.9
But having said that,
23:50.3
this is the interesting thing.
23:52.0
pinakita ko sa inyo
23:53.4
yung Joint Aerial Patrols
23:56.8
at United States.
23:58.3
please correct me
24:05.8
I think yung kabila
24:09.6
yata yung fighter niya
24:10.5
but please correct me
24:12.3
the thing is this.
24:17.8
especially vis-a-vis
24:21.2
solid relationship
24:22.1
with the United States.
24:24.8
that has had access
24:31.2
and Western NATO allies.
24:32.4
This is F-35 fighters.
24:36.6
which already has
24:41.4
that can vertically
24:47.2
They're gonna have
24:48.5
so they're gonna have
24:49.0
a dozen F-35 fighters
24:51.3
in a very elite club
24:52.8
of non-NATO allies
24:55.1
and some would even say
24:58.1
liberal democracies
25:03.5
in the Middle East
25:05.4
except one country
25:06.2
that everyone knows about
25:09.2
United Arab Emirates,
25:10.3
none of them have
25:10.8
that F-35 fighter.
25:12.5
some of them wanted
25:13.1
that F-35 fighter
25:14.6
United Arab Emirates
25:17.1
it's complicated.
25:18.0
We can discuss a lot
25:18.8
about the Middle East.
25:19.9
So, Singapore is among
25:24.2
that actually has
25:25.6
access to America's
25:28.9
Singapore is good
25:31.3
but at the same time
25:33.2
they have very robust
25:34.4
relationship with
25:35.1
the United States.
25:37.9
it's far more robust
25:44.9
the United States
25:45.9
enjoys significant
25:57.6
pact with United States
26:02.9
They're very smart,
26:07.1
mid-level cooperation
26:09.5
some higher level
26:19.5
how smart Singapore is,
26:20.7
this is what they do.
26:22.2
This is their version
26:26.0
from a good friend
26:36.7
this is a journal
26:39.5
balancing strategy
26:41.1
or hedging strategy
26:43.5
between US and China.
26:44.5
It is not actually
26:45.7
very equidistant.
26:46.6
It's asymmetrical.
26:49.1
pakita ko sa inyo
26:51.1
Here you see mga kameta.
26:57.2
defense relationship,
26:58.3
good defense relationship
26:59.3
with both US and China,
27:00.6
but it's not symmetrical.
27:09.6
from the other side.
27:16.9
ano yung mas mawawa
27:19.1
And then they get a Tesla
27:20.2
from the other side.
27:21.1
So, it's not actually
27:22.7
But it gives this impression
27:24.8
is very friendly with China.
27:26.7
much, much deeper
27:27.5
yung kanilang security relationship
27:28.8
with the United States.
27:30.0
And they have access
27:30.5
to the best weapon systems
27:31.7
also from the United States.
27:34.7
and this is where mga kameta
27:36.0
actually nakaka-frustrate.
27:37.5
Kasi kung titignan mo
27:38.4
yung defense cooperation
27:40.6
between United States
27:43.0
billions of dollars
27:44.0
ang mga nabili nila
27:44.8
mga weapon systems
27:45.6
from the United States
27:46.4
in the past decade or so.
27:47.8
Basta sa mga numbers
27:48.6
na official na meron tayo.
27:50.0
Kumpara mo yung sa Pilipinas,
27:52.5
yung total aid ng US sa atin
27:53.8
in the past decade or so,
27:54.8
just barely over a billion dollars.
27:57.6
mayaman ang bansa.
27:58.7
nagkikits ko yan.
27:59.7
They're very advanced.
28:01.4
that's the problem
28:02.2
na yung kita ko sa Pilipinas.
28:05.1
matapang tayo sa rhetoric.
28:06.5
Tama yung ginagawa natin
28:07.9
But I think yung ating relationship
28:14.4
dun sa relationship
28:16.1
sa mga hindi aliado
28:17.4
na are treated like allies.
28:19.6
So, there's this expression
28:20.7
of something like,
28:21.8
Singapore's a friend
28:22.8
that acts like an ally.
28:25.5
And then, of course,
28:26.6
there are allies like Thailand
28:27.9
that not necessarily
28:28.9
act like friends.
28:30.6
there are cases like the Philippines
28:33.2
sometimes friends,
28:34.2
sometimes not so friend,
28:35.6
and you don't know how reliable.
28:38.6
there's a lot of problem with that.
28:40.1
ito yung sinasabi ko,
28:41.7
Ito yung mga sinasabi ko,
28:43.7
Don't fall for all
28:44.7
of this simplistic idea
28:47.2
Philippines lang hindi.
28:48.3
It's actually a diverse
28:50.0
set of strategies.
28:51.3
Hedging strategy,
28:52.1
different sides are employing.
28:53.5
And I think some sides
28:54.5
are smarter than others.
28:57.3
in this very brief
28:58.7
mini lecture vlog
29:01.4
is to explain to you guys
29:03.1
na we need to find
29:04.8
a proper balancing
29:06.6
while we have to rely
29:08.5
on our allies and friends,
29:09.5
huwag tayong masyadong
29:10.1
relyan sa kanila.
29:11.1
And at the same time,
29:13.4
with the other side
29:14.1
and provide yourself
29:14.9
some room for maneuver.
29:16.5
But most important
29:20.6
defensive deterrence capability
29:22.9
para ka hindi ka pitugin.
29:27.4
if you look at it,
29:29.7
yung mga ibang kabitbay natin
29:30.9
o malaki natin kabitbay,
29:32.1
kaaway nilang China
29:37.4
Sobrang problematic
29:38.4
yung kanilang relationship
29:39.9
over the past few years
29:42.9
yung kanilang AUKUS na
29:47.2
dahil sa kanilang push
29:49.2
for independent investigation
29:50.6
dun sa sources of COVID-19
29:53.9
all of those things.
29:55.8
if you look at it,
29:56.4
Australia's trade with China
29:58.3
has boomed to around
30:01.2
Australian dollars.
30:04.8
Either Australian,
30:06.0
it actually has grown
30:08.8
nung pumunta si Albanese,
30:10.0
yung leader nila sa China
30:11.7
he was respected.
30:13.1
And more or less,
30:13.7
natanggap ng China,
30:16.7
Australia is committed
30:17.7
to its current policy
30:21.7
its own deterrence,
30:23.2
defensive capabilities,
30:24.9
to project power,
30:25.8
including yung kanilang AUKUS
30:26.9
nuclear-powered submarine missile.
30:28.9
So they stood their ground
30:31.6
and they became friendly.
30:33.6
Tignan mo rin yung latest meeting
30:35.3
between Biden and China.
30:39.1
making all of this drama
30:40.7
oh, US is so hostile,
30:42.4
imposing sanction on us,
30:44.8
oh, US has a Cold War mentality,
30:47.5
and then Xi Jinping goes
30:51.6
all top business leaders
30:53.1
and talks to Biden
30:54.0
and talks to business leaders
30:54.9
and said, you know,
30:55.4
we want to be friends,
30:56.4
we don't want to get into fights.
30:59.0
the reason is simple.
31:00.6
Dahil malakas yung mga bansa na yan.
31:02.1
Because they have strength
31:03.8
and because they have shown
31:05.3
strength of character
31:07.2
and hindi sila nagpa-gaslight,
31:09.7
hindi sila nagpa-auto,
31:11.7
and China is respecting them,
31:14.5
because China will respect you
31:16.2
if you're respecting,
31:18.3
if you have respect for yourself,
31:22.1
and for you to have respect
31:23.7
you have to make sure
31:24.4
na hindi ka magpapa-auto,
31:26.4
katulad nung isa dyan
31:28.0
daming investment na papasok,
31:29.5
hindi na mapumasok,
31:30.2
or hindi ka snowflake,
31:32.4
na kunting ingay lang
31:34.9
huwag na natin gawin yan.
31:36.5
But having said that,
31:37.3
it's important to still
31:38.5
keep those communication channels,
31:40.0
to keep direct engagement,
31:41.7
so you're engaging,
31:42.9
at the same time,
31:43.4
you're developing
31:43.9
your deterrence capability.
31:45.8
That balance is very important.
31:48.1
And more powerful
31:48.9
and more advanced countries
31:50.2
have more or less
31:51.0
kept that balance.
31:51.9
So they push back
31:52.8
when they have to,
31:54.1
where they have to.
31:54.7
So there's a punch,
31:55.8
there's a handshake.
31:57.5
there's a handshake.
31:58.8
there's a handshake.
31:59.3
There's that constant balancing.
32:01.2
Kung puro ka ng handshake,
32:02.1
pero wala kang lakas,
32:04.0
busuin ka talaga,
32:06.9
kung puro ka naman ng punch,
32:08.9
at wala kang engagement,
32:10.2
you're asking for trouble,
32:11.8
So it's really getting
32:12.7
that right balance
32:13.4
which is important,
32:15.5
having said that,
32:16.1
I think in fairness
32:16.9
to the Philippines,
32:18.7
I think in fairness
32:19.5
to the Philippines,
32:20.6
we're not doing too bad.
32:22.9
Major risk yung ginagawa
32:26.5
na purong tatay style
32:27.7
yung foreign policy natin
32:28.8
na sige kayo na po,
32:31.3
purong pro-China.
32:33.3
nakakaya ng mga style
32:37.2
na halos ka copy-paste
32:44.3
China has to wake up
32:46.8
ay hindi pichugin,
32:48.2
hindi basta-basta.
32:49.2
At in fairness naman,
32:50.3
kung titignan mo yung effort
32:53.5
ang ating mga top officials,
32:54.8
they're doing what is,
32:55.6
what is necessary,
32:56.8
what is important to do.
32:58.2
At the latest thing
32:59.4
na ginagawa natin
33:00.2
is sin-strengthen natin
33:01.5
yung position natin
33:05.1
establishing itong mga
33:07.2
sa West Philippine Sea.
33:11.1
extremely important
33:13.6
at the end of the day,
33:14.9
kahit manalo ka sa
33:15.7
international court,
33:17.2
kahit ang dayong sinabi,
33:18.5
kahit marami kang
33:19.4
aliado at kaibigan,
33:21.0
ang mahalaga talaga dyan,
33:22.5
is on the ground,
33:26.0
2nd Thomas Shoal,
33:29.1
yun nga yung naging problema
33:30.2
natin sa Panatag Shoal.
33:32.1
sa Panatag Shoal,
33:33.4
sa Scarborough Shoal,
33:34.8
meron tayong mga facilities
33:37.0
hindi pwede basta-basta
33:38.6
ng mga Chino yan.
33:40.1
Dahil wala nga tayong
33:41.7
wala tayong presence,
33:42.9
kaya nung kinuha nila,
33:45.2
At hindi natin pinasabihin
33:46.5
na nahihirapan na tayo
33:47.6
prove na sa atin yun,
33:49.2
geopolitical material sense.
33:52.3
i-attack yung mga aliado mo?
33:54.1
wala ka naman doon,
33:54.9
ba't kita tutulungan?
33:55.9
Bakit sa'yo ba yan?
33:57.8
immediately said,
33:58.7
wala kami alam dyan.
33:59.6
Pero kung may troops ka doon,
34:01.3
katulad ng Tito Island,
34:03.8
at kung may troops ka doon,
34:07.6
2nd Thomas Shoal,
34:08.1
mapipilitan talaga yung mga aliado mo
34:09.9
na tutulungan ka,
34:10.6
even though sabihin niya
34:12.4
So yun yung sinasabi natin,
34:17.8
position on the ground.
34:19.1
And I've been saying this
34:20.1
for a very, very long time
34:21.5
across different administrations,
34:23.7
that it's extremely,
34:24.7
extremely important
34:27.5
it's extremely important
34:29.2
for us to develop
34:30.8
position on the ground.
34:32.7
It's very, very important
34:37.0
Ayusin ko lang ng konti yan,
34:43.4
It's very important
34:47.4
push comes to shove,
34:51.0
dapat you make sure
34:52.9
of bullying and attack
34:54.0
you can repel that.
34:56.0
Because if you cannot
34:57.4
hindi ka tutulungan ng iba.
35:01.4
wave of resistance,
35:03.4
And dapat na yung presence
35:04.4
ka on the ground.
35:05.7
bloody nose dun sa kabila.
35:07.1
You have to be like
35:09.1
Katulad ng sinabi
35:12.0
beat the big fish,
35:13.4
and if you're not
35:15.2
to be a small fish,
35:16.4
at the very least,
35:17.9
become a poison shrimp.
35:20.2
be like a porcupine.
35:22.1
Wala kang, you know,
35:26.9
if you have that ability
35:28.2
to defend yourself,
35:29.1
then the other side
35:30.3
before attacking you
35:31.1
because maya hurtin sila.
35:32.9
that minimum credible defense
35:34.4
and domain awareness
35:35.4
capability is very,
35:36.9
to get the first,
35:38.1
level of respect.
35:40.1
you have to build
35:42.5
diplomatic alliances,
35:43.6
military alliances,
35:48.6
re-respetoin ka na
35:53.3
to certain realities.
35:55.0
when they realize
35:56.9
stand your ground,
35:58.2
they're gonna blink.
35:59.6
Don't believe me?
36:01.1
look at their situation
36:05.2
tinitreten-treten nila
36:09.1
they have to blink
36:09.5
when they realize,
36:10.5
palaban ang Australia.
36:12.2
Australia is more advanced
36:14.3
than the Philippines,
36:15.7
what is Australia
36:16.6
compared to China?
36:17.8
What is Australia?
36:18.6
Not even 40 million people
36:19.7
compared to 1 billion
36:22.1
China's second-largest economy
36:28.0
Vietnam has been doing.
36:29.8
Indonesia has been doing.
36:32.4
a lot of our neighbors
36:33.9
maritime disputes
36:34.6
or territorial disputes
36:35.7
they have also been
36:36.3
standing their ground.
36:38.9
a certain threshold
36:40.5
and your own capabilities,
36:43.6
China will respect you.
36:44.7
That's just how it works.
36:46.8
kung puro ka lang
36:49.4
walang mangyari sa'yo.
36:52.3
we did under Digong.
36:55.2
Because if you're
36:56.5
and purong subservience,
36:57.9
pero wala kang leverage,
36:59.3
deterrence capability,
37:01.3
walang mangyari dyan.
37:02.9
You're not gonna get
37:05.7
but at the same time
37:08.6
making sure your rhetoric
37:09.5
is at a healthy level,
37:11.8
far greater chance
37:13.2
that you will find
37:14.3
not maybe a compromise,
37:17.4
kasi territorial maritime
37:19.3
sovereignty ang pinagsapan,
37:22.7
or understanding.
37:23.9
Yun po yung hinahanap
37:24.6
natin ngayon dito
37:25.5
sa West Philippines.
37:26.7
It's very, very important
37:28.5
that we keep those
37:29.9
very basic things in mind.
37:32.5
very basic things in mind.
37:37.3
if you look at ASEAN,
37:41.0
it's not a question
37:42.1
of being pro-China
37:42.9
or pro-United States
37:46.0
With possible exception
37:48.5
which is very close
37:51.6
having also a relationship
37:52.7
with the United States,
37:54.8
almost all ASEAN countries
37:56.0
in one way or another
37:56.6
don't want to choose
37:57.6
between the two sides
37:59.3
good economic relationship
38:01.7
geographically too close.
38:03.3
It's a geographic reality.
38:05.0
And at the same time,
38:06.0
they want to have
38:06.4
some level of cooperation
38:07.3
with the United States.
38:08.4
Much higher, of course,
38:09.3
in the case of the Philippines,
38:10.5
but also to a certain degree
38:11.6
in the case of Thailand,
38:13.8
I mentioned Singapore,
38:15.1
has F-35 fighters,
38:17.4
the most advanced fighter jets,
38:19.6
fifth generation fighters,
38:21.4
that it's getting
38:21.9
from the United States.
38:22.8
Also, Indonesia is developing
38:23.9
its defensive capability
38:26.2
of the United States.
38:26.9
They're getting F-16 fighters.
38:27.9
So, you want to have
38:29.3
the defense relationship
38:30.2
with the United States,
38:30.8
also the economic relationship
38:32.2
pero pag binuli ka ng isa,
38:33.9
you have room for maneuver,
38:36.8
you do not have to do that.
38:36.9
But, you do not have to do that.
38:37.0
You do not fully choose
38:38.6
over the other side
38:39.3
because once you do that,
38:40.7
once you burn the bridges,
38:42.0
then two bad things happen.
38:44.5
kalaban mo yung isang superpower
38:47.2
what's gonna happen
38:47.8
is that automatically
38:48.6
you're over-dependent
38:49.6
on another superpower.
38:51.7
You might end up actually as,
38:53.6
you might end up on the menu,
38:55.6
if you don't know
38:57.0
between the two sides.
38:58.4
this so-called hedging strategy
39:00.8
is useful in conditions
39:03.6
an all-out conflict
39:04.8
between the superpowers.
39:05.8
In conditions where
39:10.1
we're still there.
39:10.8
So, short of that situation,
39:12.6
is the best strategy.
39:14.0
Don't align with one side
39:15.1
over the other totally,
39:16.8
but have some room
39:19.3
more than the other
39:21.0
is more threatening to you
39:22.2
is more helpful to you,
39:23.0
at least on this issue.
39:24.4
But, at the same time,
39:25.2
be open to changing
39:26.7
depending on the facts
39:28.2
Reliability for ally,
39:30.5
yung dun sa mga kaaway mo,
39:34.9
military capability,
39:35.8
but as I always said,
39:37.2
the most important thing,
39:38.9
the most important thing
39:42.2
and deterrence capability.
39:43.9
Because once you become
39:45.0
at least a poison shrimp,
39:49.9
magdadalawang isip
39:52.8
Because you can hurt them
40:00.8
It is not our fault.
40:02.7
We should not be faulted
40:04.8
sovereign rights.
40:06.5
And as far as tensions
40:07.6
in the region is concerned,
40:09.6
85% of the South China Sea Basin.
40:11.7
It's because there's
40:12.2
one country claiming
40:13.2
what belongs to Vietnam,
40:17.0
That's the source of problem.
40:18.5
But having said that,
40:19.7
you cannot just all be punches.
40:21.4
You also have to be able
40:22.9
And it's getting that balance.
40:24.6
It's very difficult,
40:26.2
but that's exactly
40:27.0
what we should do
40:27.7
in the Philippines.
40:28.3
Find the perfect balance.
40:30.0
But while we're finding
40:31.0
the perfect balance,
40:31.9
let's do our assignments,
40:33.0
let's do the minimum,
40:33.7
and let's protect
40:34.6
what we can protect
40:35.4
in the West Philippine Sea.
40:36.4
And I say so far,
40:37.7
I think we're moving
40:38.3
in the right direction.
40:40.0
I don't think there's
40:44.6
unknown unknowns.
40:54.0
this is a psychological game.
40:58.8
maging self-defeating
41:01.8
or loser mindset.
41:04.4
very important thing.
41:08.2
we have self-respect
41:09.9
our own capabilities,
41:10.7
the more our allies
41:11.5
will be interested
41:14.8
before bullying us.
41:16.7
thank you very much
41:18.1
I hope you appreciated
41:19.9
quite mini lecture
41:22.7
how ASEAN countries
41:23.4
are dealing with China,
41:24.6
and how should we find
41:26.2
our own perfect balance
41:27.4
when we deal with China.
41:28.5
So it's not about
41:31.3
we have to go down
41:32.4
It's about finding
41:33.1
the proper balance
41:36.9
with the superpowers.
41:37.8
And at the same time,
41:38.6
it's about protecting
41:41.8
there's a baseline
41:43.2
dealing with other powers.
41:45.6
with one superpower,
41:47.8
or territorial disputes.
41:48.7
They may have done
41:52.5
for the past 50 years.
41:53.5
We can debate about that.
41:54.9
But the other side
41:55.6
is the one bullying us
41:56.3
in the West Philippine Sea.
41:59.6
false equivalents.
42:03.3
the West Philippine Sea
42:04.0
also should not be
42:05.7
of our relationship
42:06.7
with other powers.
42:07.7
We have to make sure
42:08.4
that on other issues,
42:11.1
common understanding.
42:13.7
yung mga baselines mo.
42:14.8
That's very important.
42:16.2
thank you very much.
42:17.7
sa lahat ng mga kameta natin.
42:19.0
Thank you so much
42:19.5
for really a fantastic week.
42:24.4
because while I'm talking
42:25.9
nagpapaisip rin ako.
42:27.2
While I'm talking to you guys,
42:28.3
nagigets ko rin na
42:29.1
paano natin i-explain
42:30.6
itong mga issue na ito.
42:31.4
How do we find the,
42:32.8
also find our own
42:35.8
theoretically sound
42:37.2
but at the same time
42:38.8
and not too boring, right?
42:41.7
especially if it's like
42:42.7
almost end of the week na
42:44.1
at almost 11pm na,
42:45.9
But this is the challenge
42:46.9
and I always appreciate
42:48.5
because this is the least
42:50.2
Now, this is the least
42:52.4
raising critical thinking
42:54.2
pagdating sa West Philippine Sea.
42:55.6
I don't know if today
42:56.6
to decide on your own.
42:57.9
Choose for your own
42:58.7
what is the best way forward.
43:00.5
Pero wag kayong magpa,
43:04.0
Wag tayo mag-uto-uto.
43:05.8
Ah, magkagyera na.
43:12.6
tsaka psychological games yan.
43:14.2
Kaya walang tayong magpasa-war
43:16.2
lang ng basta-basta.
43:19.2
China is not Russia.
43:21.0
It's a much more rational
43:22.4
and self-constrained
43:23.6
and self-restrained
43:25.7
And it's a neighbor.
43:27.6
an understanding with them
43:28.5
but we have to have
43:30.8
and make our red lines clear.
43:33.4
with other kapitbayan natin
43:35.4
Kaya din natin yan.
43:36.8
The last thing we need
43:40.0
I love you enough
43:40.7
that I get nothing
43:42.3
things getting worse
43:43.0
in the West Philippine Sea.
43:44.4
It's not just about peace.
43:46.2
everyone wants peace.
43:47.1
But peace has to come
43:49.0
And justice also means
43:49.9
that the Philippines'
43:50.6
legitimate sovereign rights
43:51.6
have to be respected.
43:54.1
thank you very much.
43:55.5
ulit-ulit na ako.
43:59.0
Thank you sa lahat ng mga
43:59.7
sumusuporta natin.
44:03.7
for more discussion
44:04.8
along these lines
44:05.5
and also for more
44:10.7
Baka maganda siguro
44:11.3
tatlo kami ni Ronald
44:12.4
at saka Walden Belio
44:13.6
para medyo diversity
44:16.0
dito sa West Philippine Sea.
44:17.6
I think each of us
44:18.2
have a very unique
44:19.7
Thank you very much.
44:22.2
talk to you soon.
