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00:00.0
Let me be absolutely clear, what we're seeing right now is a kind of a Shakespearean play.
00:04.5
Marco Jr. won as a continuity candidate, but alam natin, the moment he won the top office,
00:10.6
and emphatically based on the official tally, he began to sing to a different tune.
00:14.6
Kitang-kita natin yan mga kameta, right?
00:17.1
First of all, and this was the first act, or act number one,
00:21.2
when he did not give Sarah Duterte the defense secretary position,
00:24.4
and connected to that, when he did not give the Speaker of the House,
00:28.9
or rather, he did not facilitate the Speaker of the House position going to Gloria Macapagalaroid.
00:33.9
That was already act number one.
00:35.7
The second act happened when nangyari that whole Tamba Los Los, right?
00:40.5
Essentially, explosion, whereby you had Sarah and Arroyo versus,
00:44.9
essentially, the President's right-hand man in the Congress, right?
00:48.0
And his many supporters right now, including the former allies of the former President, right?
00:53.2
Now, the Tamba Los Los.
00:54.4
The episode itself was an upshot of Marcos Jr. chipping away dun sa mga key legacies ni Digong.
01:00.1
Yung kanyang drug war, hindi kasing bara-bara.
01:02.8
Yung kanyang red tagging, hindi kasing all over the place, na hysterical.
01:07.2
And then, pangatlo, very importantly, dun sa US-China,
01:09.9
clearly, nag-recalibrate si Marcos Jr. pagdating sa ating polisiya sa West Philippine Sea.
01:14.7
And clearly, he was distancing himself dun sa pro-China, pro-Beijing policies ni Digong, right?
01:20.2
So, that was act number two.
01:22.1
And then, Digong responded.
01:23.6
He went to China.
01:24.4
Essentially, a slap on the face of the President, diplomatically speaking.
01:28.0
And then, over the coming months, he began bashing the administration and calling the Congress rotten
01:33.0
as Act 3 came in, which was the retaliation, right?
01:37.1
Yung Confidential Intelligence Fund.
01:38.6
So, this is Act 3.
01:40.0
And let's see how this Act 3 is gonna end because it all goes down to the decision of Marcos Jr.
01:45.7
if he is gonna go and give the green light signal to the ICC.
01:50.6
If he does that, that's total declaration of war.
01:53.4
Act 3 could have sub-Acts if Marcos Jr. believes this is not the time to do it or Marcos Jr. may feel that if he goes against Dutertes
02:01.8
and if Dutertes fight back, he could be squeezing between two sides if the other side, the progressive and opposition,
02:07.0
also take on him at the same time because, of course, the Marcoses have their own baggage, right?
02:11.5
So, there's also a lot of other dynamics to keep in mind.
02:15.1
Kaya dapat sa political analysis, you're looking at many moving parts at the same time.
02:18.9
It has to be a multivariable analysis, multivariant analysis.
02:23.1
Yun po yung dapat ginagawa natin.
02:24.8
So, yung mga naisang sasabi sa'yo, ito mangyari dahil ito nangyari, simplistic mag-isip mo nga yan.
02:29.6
They don't know basic political analysis, right?
02:33.5
Or social analysis for that matter.
02:35.3
It's gonna happen now.
02:35.9
The interesting thing is, patapos ng taon so there could be a spirit of holidays and all and who knows,
02:41.2
maybe temporarily there could be another patch up.
02:43.8
But much will also depend on what Digong is gonna do next because clearly, his side,
02:47.7
nag-hemorrhage yung hanyang side, yung hanyang aliado, they're all defecting to Martin Romaldes and boom,
02:52.8
all of this, the act 3, will also be determined by the calculus vis-a-vis the 20-25 midterm elections
03:00.2
which could be very, very definitive.
03:02.5
So, you cannot separate the ICC decision from all of these other calculus that is happening at the same time.
03:07.5
On that note, thank you very much.
03:09.0
Maraming salamat.
03:09.9
God bless and talk to you soon.
