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00:00.0
Good evening po sa inyo lahat.
00:25.9
At ako po si Christian Esguerra and welcome po sa ating episode ngayong gabi ng ating Facts First Podcast.
00:31.5
As always, maraming salamat po sa patuloy niyo pong pag-suporta dito po sa ating programa.
00:36.6
Pasensya na po kayo, late po tayo nag-start ngayon.
00:39.4
Meron po akong mga tinapos, pagpaumanhin niyo na po.
00:43.9
Pero napaka-importante po ng topic natin tonight, December 11 kung nakikita niyo.
00:48.6
Nakalagay dito yung topic natin, pag-usapan po natin yung latest incident dyan po sa
00:54.1
malapit sa Ayungin Shoal at saka dyan po sa Scarborough Shoal o yung pong tinatawag na Bajo de Masinloc.
01:01.0
Pinag-uusapan po natin dito yung ating sariling West Philippine Sea, sariling nating katubigan,
01:06.6
sariling nating teritoryo, pero patuloy po yung panghaharas ng Chinese Coast Guard
01:12.4
and Chinese Maritime Militia Vessels, sa mga sarili po nating mga vessels.
01:17.6
Kasama na po rito yung ating mga mahangisda.
01:20.1
Yan po yung mag-uusapan natin ngayon.
01:21.6
Paano ba matitigil itong pambubuli?
01:24.1
Pang-aharas at pang-aatake so far gamit po ang water cannons nitong Chinese Coast Guard.
01:31.0
Ano ba yung mga pwedeng gawin?
01:32.3
So, ka-uusapin po natin ang isa eksperto pagdating po rito.
01:36.8
I hope, maraming maganda yung feedback lagi pag-guess natin siya dahil talaga namang malalim yung diskusyon galing sa kanya.
01:46.0
So, I'd like to welcome to our program, siya po ang dating Rear Admiral ng Philippine Navy.
01:54.1
I'd like to welcome again to our program, si retired Navy Rear Admiral Romel Jude Ong.
01:59.7
Magandang gabi po, sir, and thank you for joining us tonight dito po sa Facts First.
02:05.6
Good evening, Christian, and good evening to your followers as well.
02:09.2
Okay, sige sir, pag-uusapan natin ito.
02:11.0
Dalawang insidente po, tama ba? Malapit sa Ayungan Shoal, isa naman sa Scarborough Shoal.
02:17.7
So, what are the facts so far that we have established?
02:20.5
Yung water cannon incident, what else?
02:23.4
Well, you know, we have a lot of facts.
02:23.9
Well, you know, we have a lot of facts.
02:23.9
Well, you know, we have a lot of facts.
02:24.0
Well, yung sa Scarborough Shoal, apparently, ginamit yung water cannon.
02:29.3
And based dun sa reports sa media, ginamit din yung what we call long-range acoustic device dito sa Scarborough Shoal.
02:41.1
Then dito sa Ayungan, what was employed was yung, again, water cannon,
02:48.6
and merong deliberate ramming, although calibrated naman yung ramming of one.
02:53.8
So, yun, isa-isahin natin.
02:58.3
Ito po kasi gusto kong tumbukin.
03:00.9
Alam natin yung Chinese Gray Zone Operations, and mamaya papalwanag po yan ni Rear Admiral.
03:06.9
Pero dito ba sa ginagawa ng China, ano ba yung limits nito?
03:10.1
Ano ba yung mga pwedeng gamitin at hindi gamitin para hindi naman umabot doon sa tinatawag na kinetic confrontation?
03:16.7
Sa inyo ko na dinigyan, yung kinetic.
03:18.4
Pakiexplain nga po.
03:19.6
Okay, so far, lahat ng ginamit ng China na...
03:23.8
erosive tactics, papasok pa rin sa non-kinetic measure.
03:27.7
Meaning, there was no deadly force use.
03:33.0
Meaning, yung normally mga barel o weapon system na nakakamatay ng tao.
03:39.2
Hindi pa tayo umabot doon sa level ng escalation na yun.
03:42.8
So, lahat ng software na ginamit nila is within the parameters of what we call non-lethal or non-kinetic measures.
03:53.8
Non-lethal, non-kinetic.
03:55.4
Pero syempre, meron pa rin yung damage as we've seen, no?
03:58.4
So, sabi nyo nga, doon sa may iyong incident, calibrated ramming.
04:01.9
In short, binangga yung ating Philippine vessel.
04:04.5
So, this is allowed?
04:05.8
Bangga-bangga yung vessels?
04:09.4
Nandasa real pa rin siya ng roles of engagement, pwede pa rin.
04:14.5
Pero, Christian, I'm going to introduce another term this evening.
04:19.7
We use the term mission kill.
04:27.2
That means, hindi ka gumamit ng pwersa na dahas, ibig sabihin walang namatay na tao o walang namatay na mandragat.
04:37.1
Pero, yung measures na ginamit mo was employed to such extent, hindi na mape-perform ng kabilang side yung mission niya.
04:49.6
So, ang term doon is mission kill.
04:53.8
yung sa Scarborough Shoal, affected yung kanyang navigation at communication system.
05:03.8
So, kung na-damage mo yun, that means, bulag na yung barko at wala na rin siyang communication sa Manila o sa Sabales.
05:15.8
So, basically, isolated na yung barko.
05:20.2
So, hindi na niya mape-perform yung mission niya.
05:25.1
Now, kung titignan natin dito naman sa Ayu Minciol, yung isang supply boat na ginamit nila, yung I think it is yung Kalayaan.
05:36.2
Merong propulsion damage.
05:37.7
Meaning, hinila na siya eh.
05:39.5
Tinow na siya pa uwi ng Palawan eh.
05:41.9
Ibig sabihin, wala na siyang capacity to natumakbo mag-isa on its own power.
05:48.7
So, papasok pa rin yan sa mission kill.
05:50.6
Ibig sabihin, hindi na niya mape-perform yung mission niya.
05:54.3
Now, in both, in the case of the, sa Ayu Minciol, yung Kalayaan, medyo pag, I would presume, i-re-repair yun.
06:05.7
That means, hindi mo na siya magagamit for yung succeeding with supply runs.
06:13.5
And I think yung isang supply boat din, yung isang Onisa 1, I forgot which one, yung 1 or 2.
06:20.6
Meron siyang damage din.
06:25.0
So, that means, dalawa of the 3 supply boats na ginagamit natin, yung dalawa, medyo igagrahi mo na.
06:32.7
Kasi kailangan na mag-repair eh.
06:34.3
That means, isa na lang yung naiwan na supply boat.
06:37.4
So, essentially, yun ito, papasok siya sa mission kill.
06:41.4
Hindi mo na, hindi na nila mape-perform yung mission nila.
06:45.5
In short, pinilayan yung ating resupply mission capabilities.
06:52.3
Para lang mailagin natin.
06:53.2
That's the perspective, no?
06:55.1
Learning experience itong mga nadidilig natin sa inyo.
06:57.5
Pero, nagkasama tayo sa isang recent forum eh.
07:00.7
And I was really listening intently sa inyong presentation tungkol sa Chinese influence operations.
07:06.0
I just don't want people to get lost dito sa discussion.
07:09.3
Baka na-entertain yung iba dyan, no?
07:10.8
Uy, ang ganda niya, no?
07:13.0
Let's establish the facts, no?
07:14.5
Walang karapatan ng China na magpunta dyan sa Yongin Shoal at saka dyan sa Scarborough Shoal.
07:20.3
Sa West Philippine Sea.
07:23.2
Sa ating exclusive economic zone.
07:24.9
So, we exercise sovereign rights doon sa area last na, yun, sa Scarborough Shoal at saka sa Yongin Shoal.
07:33.8
When you say sovereign rights, tayo po yung may karapatan exclusively sa mga resources dyan, no?
07:38.9
Sa laman ng tubig, nasa karagatan, at saka doon sa ilalim.
07:45.4
So, ano lang, layak ko yung i-establish yung discussion na yun kasi alam natin marami nagpapakalat ng fake information coming even from Filipinos.
07:53.2
So, yung mga makapiling nagkalat dyan sa social media.
07:55.9
So, doon po sa mga viewers at listeners, wala pong karapatan in the first place ang China dyan sa ating exclusive economic zone.
08:02.5
Pero ito po yung ginagawa nila sa atin.
08:04.6
So, paki-explain nga po itong long-range acoustic device.
08:08.8
Paano po ba ginagamit ito?
08:10.5
At ano po yung epekto nito?
08:11.8
Especially in the case of this Scarborough Shoal incident.
08:17.1
Yung long-range acoustic device is basically an audio device.
08:21.1
Meaning, it's a true sound.
08:28.4
Personally, I have not encountered that system.
08:31.7
So, I'm going with yung theoretical aspect ng system na yan.
08:36.3
So, ang pagkakaintindi ko nito, pag ito ay dinamage sa iyo, medyo magkakaroon ka ng may disability, mayroong effect sa pandinig mo.
08:48.6
In the like manner, siguro ang pwede natin gawin.
08:51.1
If you compare yung laser, yung laser, pag tinamaan yung mata mo, mabubulag ka.
08:56.8
In the case of yung long-range acoustic device, maapektuhan yung pandinig mo to such a point na madidisorient ka.
09:08.8
So, sabi nyo, malinaw naman yan.
09:10.6
Sa rules of engagement, hindi pa ito classified under yung mga kinetica measures or approaches.
09:16.5
Ibig sabihin, yung talaga nagbabakbakan na firing guns.
09:21.1
At each other, hindi pa doon.
09:22.9
Pero, paano po kung mayroong mapinsala in the process?
09:26.5
Let's say, sa paggamit ng long-range acoustic device, talagang na-damage permanently yung isang tao, isang Pinoy, na nandun sa isang barko.
09:35.7
O kaya, dun sa paggamit nila ng tinatawag na calibrated ramming, o yung calculated na pagbangga, mayroong namatay.
09:42.4
O kaya, dun sa pag-water cannon nila, let's say someone was hit and then thrown overboard.
09:47.9
Maraming may namatay, hindi lang na-injure.
09:51.1
Ano po yung mga pwedeng gawin?
09:53.7
Well, ah, ibang usapan na yun.
09:56.9
Kasi, nagkakaroon na ng ano eh.
09:58.4
Nagkakaroon na ng, ah, mayroon ng napinsalan tao.
10:02.0
Mga, mayroon ng napirwisyo.
10:04.7
So, papasok pa rin tayo ron sa ano eh.
10:10.2
Hindi pa rin siya kasi weapon system per se ang ginamit eh.
10:13.9
But, of course, papasok na rito yung maghahain.
10:17.0
Malamang maghahain tayo ng reklamo.
10:19.2
And we will, ah, super damages.
10:21.7
And I presume, mayroon din diplomatic protest.
10:26.0
Ano, yung, ah, dahil pinag-uusapan naman natin yung limits ng pag-response sa mga ganitong situation,
10:33.6
binabomba tayo ng water cannons, binabanggay yung mga vessels natin,
10:38.8
and, ah, ginagamitan before, di ba, ng laser, tapos ito, yung lately, long-range acoustic device.
10:45.1
Iwi sabihin, pwede rin natin itong gamitin sa kanila, tama po ba?
10:47.7
At kung oo, do we have such capabilities naman ba?
10:51.1
In theory, pwede.
10:53.5
But as to meron tayong capability, I'm not sure.
10:57.5
Kasi those are not normally, kung baka sa Navy, those are equipment that are not carried by the Navy inventory.
11:04.4
So, I'm not familiar with yung current capabilities ng Coast Guard in terms of those systems.
11:10.5
Pero I presume, meron silang water cannon.
11:13.1
But for yung long-range acoustic device, I'm not particularly sure kung meron silang of that type of equipment.
11:21.1
Sir, paano ba dapat tayo mag-respond dito?
11:23.6
Kasi obviously, sinasabi nila, may escalation.
11:27.4
Obviously, may escalation.
11:28.7
Pero hindi naman galing sa Philippine side.
11:30.8
Galing sa Chinese side.
11:32.3
So, how should we respond?
11:34.3
Okay na ba yung laging ganito na nakikipaghabulan tayo?
11:37.5
Or, should we do something else aside from the diplomatic track?
11:43.5
I'm not sure, Christian, no?
11:45.8
Kasi lahat ng measures na pwede natin gawin,
11:48.9
and nakapwede naman, ano eh,
11:50.8
kumaga, in the menu of options, lahat pwede naman gawin.
11:56.0
Up to the level of kinetic.
11:58.1
But, ang ano dyan is, ano yung decision-making process,
12:01.9
tsaka ano yung nakikintang end state ng ating mga pinuno.
12:12.6
Kasi at the end of the day, sila mag-de-decide yan eh.
12:16.7
Kung ano yung ano.
12:17.6
But, what I'm trying to say is, lahat ng options available,
12:20.8
naman sa ating, okay?
12:22.9
Whether we escalate or de-escalate,
12:25.0
that is within the realm of yung decision-making process natin.
12:29.0
But, whether pupunta tayo doon sa direction na yun,
12:31.7
that depends on yung, ano na, yung discarding na nung ating mga pinuno.
12:37.1
Kung paano saan nila dadalhin yun.
12:40.7
Pero, bilang isang analyst, for instance,
12:42.7
tsaka dating Navy official,
12:45.2
ano ba yung mga dapat nakikita nyo?
12:47.0
Ano ba yung mga options na nakikita nyo
12:48.6
na baka pwede explore?
12:50.3
Para hindi lang itong cut-and-mouse game
12:54.0
ang nakikita natin lagi.
12:58.0
Nakita ko kasi, Christian, ano eh.
13:01.6
Yung current posture natin is reactive.
13:05.6
Current posture natin is reactive.
13:07.3
Kung baga, we depend on yung actions nila.
13:12.5
And, in the recent, yung recent incident
13:16.2
the past few days,
13:17.7
makikita rin natin yung limits
13:20.7
we just be transparent about it.
13:27.8
sa pingingin ko, kinakapush yun.
13:29.2
So, what are the other options?
13:31.7
Babalik tayo rin sa discourse natin noon, ano eh.
13:37.7
kulang yung ating presensya doon sa dagat natin.
13:43.7
Hindi uubra yung, ano eh,
13:45.2
yung susulput lang tayo sa Scarborough Shoal
13:47.8
o sa Ayungin Shoal.
13:49.4
Kung meron tayong kailangan gawin doon,
13:51.3
then uuwi na tayo.
13:53.7
Kasi sila, nakita mo,
13:56.1
alos, nandun lang sila sa dagat sa ating IECD eh.
13:58.9
Paikot-ikot lang sila.
14:01.4
Pangalawa, and this is a capability problem, no?
14:04.2
Hindi ito masasolve.
14:06.5
Kung baka, pag capability problem siya,
14:08.9
hindi mo siya masasolve within yung resources natin ngayon.
14:13.3
Nakita natin yung, ano eh,
14:14.6
nagpo-converge na ngayon.
14:15.8
Yung kaya nila i-mass up,
14:17.9
I think, yung previous incident,
14:19.4
they were able to mass up around 38 vessels.
14:25.3
Dito sa Scarborough Shoal,
14:26.9
nung vision incident,
14:28.5
siguro more, I think, more than 10.
14:31.0
They were able to mass up.
14:33.3
And similar for yung recent Ayungin Shoal.
14:37.6
So, meron dito yung tinatawag natin yung quantity.
14:43.1
Meron kasabihan na quantity is a quality by itself.
14:46.0
Meaning, yung numbers game,
14:49.4
pwede, sa numbers game, talo tayo, okay?
14:54.6
Ngayon, yung resources available sa atin,
14:57.1
hindi natin kayang i-match up yung numbers game ngayon, okay?
15:00.9
So, ang challenge dun is, ano yung,
15:03.9
paano mo siya ngayon i-offset, okay?
15:06.2
Ano yung sistema o ano yung mekanismo na pwede mong i-offset yung
15:11.3
tactical advantage ng kabila, which is mas marami sila,
15:15.1
and we're dealing with both the Navy, the Coast Guard nila, tsaka yung militia.
15:20.1
So, that cannot be solved today or tomorrow.
15:23.1
Kasi that needs to be planned out.
15:24.8
And that means you have to develop yung capabilities na yun para ma-address yung problem na yun.
15:32.1
Ito sir, magbabasa lang akong isang comment coming from one of our viewers.
15:36.6
I think this is also reflective of the frustration of many Filipinos.
15:41.2
Although, naintindihan ko yung nuances nung pinapalawanag nyo.
15:45.4
Naintindihan ko yan perfectly.
15:47.0
Pero ito, hindi natin maiwasan yung mga kababayan natin,
15:49.2
na mag-isip ng ganito.
15:50.2
Sabi niya, hindi ba sa ganitong response natin na pinapabayaan natin ng mga Chino
15:54.8
na gawin sa atin ito, e tayo ang lumalabas na nagtetrespass sa West Philippine Sea?
16:01.0
Kasi sila na yung nagdedictate kung anong gagawin sa atin sa sarili nating teritoryo.
16:05.8
Galing po yan kay Mark Anthony Durante.
16:09.0
Actually, classmate ko nung high school yan.
16:10.6
Pero mainit siya sa issue na ito.
16:12.9
I would agree with yung comment nung follower o nung classmate mo.
16:19.2
And, it's one of the problems natin na hindi, yun na nga,
16:26.1
sinabi ko yung capabilities natin hindi sapat para tapatan sila eh.
16:33.2
So, hindi rin naman, hindi rin naman sa tingin ko viable yung aasa tayo agad sa ating mga kaalyado.
16:44.0
Kasi doon din tayo tinitira eh, yung sinasabing,
16:49.2
kaya kayo ganyan dahil sumusunod kayo sa interest ng mga kaalyado nyo.
16:59.2
In this case, Amerika.
17:00.8
So, kailangan natin pakita na kaya natin tapatan yung challenge na yun.
17:06.7
Now, I think in previous discussion, I mentioned about, yung analogy ko,
17:12.1
babalik ko na lang yung analogy about the basketball game.
17:15.4
Hindi pwede tayong nagtatago sa bleacher eh.
17:18.8
Kailangan lumabas tayo sa basketball court.
17:22.1
And that means, kung ano man yung limited resources natin,
17:25.3
ibuhos na natin sa exclusive economic zone natin.
17:29.9
Kasi right now, papitik-pitik lang tayo eh.
17:32.1
Pupunta tayo ron, gagawin yung mission, and uwi na.
17:35.9
So, unless we match yung presence nila,
17:39.2
or at least try to match it within the limits of our resources,
17:43.0
doon tayo pupunta sa parang, ano,
17:45.0
tayo na yung parang bumibisita ron sa ating sarili exclusive economic zone.
17:48.8
At sila'y na may-ari.
17:52.3
Parang ano yan eh, no?
17:53.3
Yung meron tayong lupa.
17:55.4
Tayo may legal na karapatan doon, may titulo,
17:57.7
pero hindi natin mapabakuran, no?
17:59.8
Hindi natin mabisita, hindi natin mapatayuan ng bahay,
18:03.5
so merong squatter doon,
18:05.2
adjunct yung China, tama ba?
18:07.0
Isang analogy yan eh.
18:08.8
That's a better analogy.
18:11.4
Meron po mga, may mga tao po doon sa property natin,
18:16.2
Pag lumaki tayo, tapos mag-isa lang tayo,
18:20.0
So ang solusyon doon, magsama ka ng kasama mo
18:22.2
para marami-rami kayo.
18:25.2
So, itong isa kasi, naiisip din ang iba to, no?
18:28.4
Although isa rin, no?
18:29.7
Isa rin sa mga options that comes to mind sa akin po personally.
18:33.8
Marami namang mga allies na nagpapakita ng expressions of support lately, no?
18:38.1
Actually, parang mas dumarami.
18:40.1
Ito nga recently, Sweden, nagsalita na rin, no?
18:42.2
In support of the Philippines,
18:44.1
at saka doon sa rule of law,
18:45.7
UK, the usual, New Zealand, Japan, US, UK,
18:48.8
hindi ba option sa ngayon yung
18:52.7
dito sa mga resupply missions,
18:55.0
magpa-escort tayo doon sa ilan sa mga kaalyado natin?
19:02.6
In theory, pwede yun.
19:03.8
Now, ang depende na lang yan kung
19:05.5
nasa desisyon natin mga Pinudo kung papayagan nila.
19:09.2
Kasi so far, I think,
19:11.1
nagkaroon na tayo ng dalawa yung tinatawag nyo ng
19:13.3
cooperative maritime activities.
19:18.8
joint operations sa dagat.
19:24.7
There was one with the United States,
19:26.7
then another one with Australia.
19:28.8
And this was only recent.
19:31.9
inistart pa lang natin yung konsepto na to
19:33.7
and you implement.
19:36.5
I presume that at some point,
19:38.5
it will gain traction.
19:39.5
Then magiging, ano na,
19:41.3
magiging madalas na yan.
19:43.9
madalas na pwedeng gawin.
19:48.1
Makakatulong yun.
19:49.8
again, babalik ako sa analogy ng
19:53.9
Kung medyo kulang tayo sa height,
19:56.2
sa ating professional leagues,
20:00.4
nag-i-import tayo ng medyo-medyo matangkad na ating
20:02.8
mga basketball player.
20:06.2
ganun yung analogy natin.
20:08.4
Mag-i-import tayo ng ating mga
20:09.9
mas matatangkad na players.
20:14.2
Mga may konting import sa panandalian
20:16.2
kasi kulang na kulang tayo sa resources.
20:18.6
Sa mga mga mga mga mga,
20:19.3
sa mga mga mga mga,
20:19.5
sa mga mga mga mga mga mga mas matatanggal.
20:20.0
iniisip ko ganito,
20:22.4
ongoing naman yung
20:23.6
modernization ng ating AFP,
20:25.3
pati ng ating Philippine Coast Guard.
20:28.5
I don't know kung
20:30.5
umabot na talaga tayo rin sa
20:31.9
laging luma yung concept
20:33.2
na nagagamit ko ito
20:34.2
kasi tumatak sa utak ko.
20:35.5
Yung credible defense posture,
20:37.3
hindi pong kayo mo man lang
20:38.7
bloody nose yung kalaban.
20:40.7
Nandun na po ba tayo
20:44.0
in the face of China?
20:45.5
Medyo malayo-layo pa
20:47.8
Tsaka Christian, ano eh
20:49.1
When we talk of modernization kasi
20:50.9
Let's say, for example
20:53.4
Binili mo ngayong araw
20:54.8
Yung binili mo ngayon, makikita mo yun
20:57.9
3, 4 years from now
21:01.9
Ganun yung gestation period
21:03.3
Ng ating acquisition process
21:04.7
Lalo na kung sa Navy, Barco
21:07.7
Or even sa Coast Guard
21:10.7
Isa pang problema
21:13.3
Balik ko yung numbers game
21:15.2
Yung quantity issue
21:16.5
Kasi hindi, I don't think we can match
21:20.6
Sa acquisition tempo natin
21:23.5
Kaya natin tapatan yung
21:25.5
China in terms of paramihan ng barco
21:29.8
US, yung US Navy, nahihirapan
21:33.7
I mentioned it in previous
21:35.7
Discussions, as early as 2015
21:37.8
Nalampasan na actually
21:39.9
Ng PLA Navy yung US Navy
21:41.8
In terms of numbers of combatant vessels
21:43.6
So even yung US Navy, nahihirapan
21:46.0
That's why, ang strategy niya ngayon
21:48.4
Is to work with other
21:50.5
Allies and partners
21:58.6
Imbis na tayong dumepende sa kanila
22:02.1
Dumedepende na rin sila sa atin
22:03.8
Para makilapan yung gaps nila
22:06.1
In terms of yung number of
22:08.3
Combatant vessels
22:09.1
So across the board, may problema ganun
22:11.2
Now, merong ibang
22:13.4
Possibility na, tingnan natin yung
22:15.4
Emerging technologies
22:16.7
So kung titignan natin yung
22:19.6
Experience, lagi mo yung binibigay
22:21.4
Example, yung Ukraine
22:26.3
No Navy, kumbaga yung Navy niya
22:29.9
Na neutralize na ng
22:33.3
Russia, but despite that
22:35.5
Makita natin, yung Ukraine Navy
22:37.4
Napapalubog niya yung barco ng
22:39.4
Mga Russian, Black Sea Fleet
22:41.0
Okay, without a Navy
22:43.4
So hindi nang gamit niya
22:44.4
Other types of technology
22:46.4
Missile technology at saka
22:48.4
Okay, para ma-offset yung kanilang
22:49.4
Weakness, which is wala silang barco
22:51.4
So pwedeng tingnan din yun
22:52.4
Kasi ang ano rito Richard
22:53.4
Christian is ano eh
22:54.4
Hindi naman tayong gano kayama na
22:56.4
And nagko-compete yung ating mga
22:57.4
Yung resource natin
22:58.4
Nagko-compete sa other requirements
22:59.4
Education, education
23:00.4
At yung mga mga mga mga mga
23:01.4
At yung mga mga mga mga
23:02.4
At yung mga mga mga mga
23:03.4
At yung mga mga mga mga
23:04.4
At yung mga mga mga mga
23:05.4
Public health, etc.
23:06.4
So hindi naman pwede ibuhos natin
23:07.4
Sa defense lahat yung ating resources
23:09.4
Kung baga smart in terms of
23:14.4
Cost effective systems
24:05.4
I think ito kasi yung nawawala roon sa debate, no?
24:07.9
Kasi alam natin, sinasabi ng mga Chinese propagandist.
24:10.4
Ngayon, may mga nanonood dito eh, mga propagandista ng China.
24:13.5
Sinasabi, bakit yung makapasukon yung mga allies?
24:15.7
Dapat tayo lang naking kipaglaban sa sarili nating, ano, laban.
24:20.2
Mga, ano yan, no?
24:21.1
Mga tapang-tapangan.
24:22.6
Ang point ko naman,
24:24.1
AUS, kunwari UK, Australia,
24:27.2
hindi naman sila nag-land reclamation sa West Philippine Sea, di ba?
24:29.9
Hindi naman sila bumuon ng artificial islands dyan
24:33.1
at hindi naman sila yung nambubuli sa ating mga mahangista dyan.
24:37.0
So, hindi tama na ikumpara yung ginagawa ng China
24:41.7
doon sa iniisip nilang gagawin o interest nitong mga kaalyado natin.
24:46.5
Especially when we're talking of the specific point of
24:49.3
tapping them to escort us for resupply missions.
24:54.0
Yan kasi yung gusto ko linawin dyan eh.
24:56.8
Kasi ang objective ng Chinese propaganda
24:58.9
tsaka Chinese influence operations,
25:01.7
is papano nila bubuwagin yung alyansa natin with the United States.
25:07.0
Yan yung primary mission niya eh
25:08.4
ng propaganda niya tsaka influence operations eh.
25:14.3
yung other partners natin na pumapasok,
25:17.5
Australia, Japan.
25:18.5
So, papano nila sisirain yung ano na yun?
25:21.5
So, makita nyo, yung messaging nila,
25:24.2
yung kagaya nga ng sinabi mo,
25:25.5
yung messaging nila is actually designed to discourage us
25:28.6
from tapping that potential resource.
25:34.9
O sige, bago natin balikan yung ano.
25:38.2
Ito yung gusto ko rin tanong sa inyo, no?
25:40.9
Ba't ito yung panawagan ng ibang mga politiko natin
25:43.3
tsaka ng ibang mga Pilipino rin?
25:45.6
Is it time to expel or declare as persona non grata
25:49.2
the Chinese ambassador to Manila
25:51.0
in light of this incidence?
25:56.4
Normally, in that type of scenario,
25:58.8
I would defer to the wisdom
26:01.7
ng Department of Foreign Affairs, okay?
26:03.9
Kasi merong calibration involved yan
26:08.7
in terms of those actions, eh.
26:10.6
And normally, if we actually express this distrust
26:15.6
or we express disgust over our relations,
26:19.3
normally, yung ambassador natin yung pinupull out natin, eh.
26:22.4
I think that's the...
26:24.0
Rather than paalisin yung ambassador ng kabilang country.
26:27.2
But even then, ano Christian, eh?
26:29.8
We need to be more deliberate
26:32.5
tapos we need to be more strategic in terms of our actions.
26:36.3
Kasi pag inalaw natin yung emosyon natin ng manain,
26:40.2
we might be doing things that we will regret later on.
26:43.7
Now, as far as this yung ipa-expel yung ambassador,
26:47.5
well, it might feel good.
26:49.0
But remember, the ambassadors are there
26:52.4
or the embassies are there
26:53.7
actually to provide yung communication
26:57.5
between two countries or between two states.
26:59.8
Although may problema talagang tayo sa embassy na yan
27:02.7
kasi based on doktrina nila,
27:04.8
it's actually the embassy that is supervising yung
27:09.1
tinatawag natin influence operation.
27:12.6
So, I do not know what extent it's the Pilipinas
27:15.0
but definitely, meron silang participation doon.
27:20.3
Pero at pisha idea of sending a stronger message?
27:22.9
Kasi common naman yan.
27:24.4
Ito yung ginagawa ito ng China sa Philippine vessels.
27:26.6
So, nagpa-file tayo ng diplomatic protest
27:29.8
Hindi natin mapalabas na tinatanggap natin yung nangyayari.
27:36.3
Ito walang mali ron.
27:37.1
So, that's a normal response, diplomatic protest.
27:40.5
Pero kasi ngayon, idea of expelling the Chinese ambassador
27:43.0
is being floated to send at least a stronger message.
27:47.3
Hindi naman ito yung pagka-cut off talaga ng diplomatic ties.
27:50.9
Parang do something different to tell the Chinese na
27:55.9
gigil na gigil na kami.
27:57.8
Iba na itong ginagawa nyo talaga.
27:59.8
What do you think of that?
28:02.9
In my case, and this is just my own personal opinion,
28:06.2
ang i-re-recall ko yung ambasador natin.
28:08.9
If you want to show this pleasure.
28:15.9
ano kasi, we need to look at yung levers ng weaknesses nila.
28:21.9
Kasi, gaya sinabi ko anong yun,
28:24.4
dapat calibrated yung response natin.
28:28.9
kung ano man yung action,
28:29.8
dapat merong efekto sa kanila.
28:35.2
Ngayon ito, hindi ko sure kung how will this affect yung process nila.
28:42.2
That means we need to better understand
28:44.4
ano yung galaw nila doon sa partido, sa Beijing.
28:49.8
And the best na makakaano yan,
28:52.1
merong makapaan yan,
28:54.4
is yung ating foreign affairs department.
28:59.8
At yung foreign affairs natin.
29:03.3
Ito pala, sir, no?
29:04.8
Kanina pinag-usapan natin yung limits of engagement
29:08.8
para hindi siya mag-escalate into kinetic measures.
29:12.8
In short, hindi talaga gumamit ng weapon systems
29:17.8
o siguro even ang Pilipinas,
29:19.8
dito sa nangyari sa West Philippine Sea.
29:21.8
Pero, do you think, with the developments now,
29:24.8
with the escalation, obviously,
29:26.8
do you think it's just a matter of time before this progresses?
29:28.8
Do you think it's just a matter of time before this progresses?
29:29.8
Or escalates into a kinetic confrontation?
29:37.8
Actually, Christian, at the back of my mind,
29:39.8
ang worry ko is ano eh, yung binibait tayo.
29:42.8
Yung binibait tayo para tayo yung mag-escalate.
29:45.8
Then that gives them an excuse
29:47.8
to actually implement a more severe response.
29:53.8
I presume, ano na sila eh,
29:55.8
kumbaga kung naiinis tayo doon sa actions nila,
29:58.8
sa Ayungin Shoal.
29:59.8
Naiinis din sila sa atik
30:01.8
kasi gustong-gusto na nilang i-take over yung Ayungin Shoal eh.
30:04.8
Pero wala silang makitang load yung defensible excuse
30:11.8
in front of the international community
30:14.8
na hindi sila masisira.
30:17.8
So yun yung at the back of my mind,
30:19.8
yun yung tinitingnan natin ano eh.
30:21.8
As much as medyo talagang nakaka-high blood yung ginagawa nila,
30:26.8
pero sad ganyan sinabi ko,
30:28.8
we need to be calibrated,
30:30.8
we need to be deliberate sa actions natin.
30:33.8
Major power eh yung katunggalin natin,
30:35.8
hindi naman ito pipitsuging bansa eh.
30:38.8
And yung resources niya are way beyond our capabilities to match.
30:43.8
yung aking isang professor no,
30:46.8
nung bata-bata pa ako, sabi niya,
30:48.8
if you have limited resources,
30:50.8
the only way you can offset that would be
30:52.8
to have a very small amount of resources.
30:54.8
The only way you can offset that would be
30:56.8
to have a very superior strategy.
30:59.8
Now whatever is the strategy natin,
31:01.8
that should be able to mitigate
31:04.8
yung problema binibigay sa atin ng katunggalin natin,
31:07.8
yung partido ng Sina.
31:09.8
But at the same time,
31:10.8
hindi naman tayo matatalo
31:14.8
kahit limited yung resources natin.
31:17.8
Parang ganito po yan eh.
31:18.8
Pasensyon na rin sa ibang mga nanonood,
31:20.8
baka akala niyo we're advocating for war dito, no?
31:23.8
Ang gusto natin ma-iwasan.
31:24.8
Pero syempre, inisip natin,
31:26.8
mukhang, syempre, isa yan sa mga possibilities
31:29.8
na pwedeng puntahan dahil dito sa ginagawa ng China.
31:31.8
Pero I agree nga, no?
31:33.8
Mukha talagang binibate tayo ng bully, no?
31:36.8
Ang naisip ko po dyan, sir,
31:37.8
yung parabang nasa school yung dalawa,
31:39.8
may bully, tapos mayroong binubully tayo yun.
31:42.8
Yung araw-araw kang binabangga sa corridor,
31:45.8
binabangga yung siko mo, diba?
31:47.8
Medyo tinutulak-tulak ka,
31:49.8
pero hindi ka pa naman sinusuntok.
31:51.8
Pero pag napikon ka at sinuntok mo,
31:52.8
that's an excuse for the bully
31:54.8
to actually punch back.
31:56.8
And of course, he is stronger at marami siyang backup.
31:58.8
Parang ganun ba yan, yung nakikita niya?
32:00.8
Oo, tsaka ang problema mo,
32:01.8
hindi lang isang bully yung corrupt mo, eh.
32:03.8
Maaring isang bully lang yung nabubully sa'yo,
32:06.8
pero meron siyang arrest back ang marami-marami,
32:09.8
mas marami sa'yo.
32:13.8
Pero hindi to, hindi pa ba sapat na deterrent sa China
32:15.8
yung ano natin, yung mutual defense treaty with the US
32:19.8
Ilang beses nang inuulit-ulit din naman
32:22.8
American officials na ironclad
32:25.8
at talagang that will be activated
32:27.8
kung atakihin ang Philippine vessel diyan.
32:32.8
I'd like to think na it is working.
32:36.8
It does have provide...
32:37.8
It provides a deterrent effect.
32:41.8
mas extreme yung actions,
32:43.8
mas aggressive yung actions sila sa atin, eh.
32:45.8
So, right now, ang...
32:47.8
Kaya nga, ang nararanasan lang natin so far is yung...
32:52.8
Calibrated na maraming yung...
32:54.8
Yung non-kinetic measures.
32:56.8
Hindi sila nag-e-escalate
32:58.8
to the point na it will go kinetic, eh.
33:00.8
So, yung deterrents nung...
33:02.8
Nung mutual defense treaty, ando pa rin.
33:04.8
Eh nakikita natin yun.
33:09.8
Kailangan siguro natin ipurso...
33:13.8
Further yung ating ano, eh.
33:18.8
Mga joint activities natin with the US
33:20.8
and the other allied par...
33:22.8
Yun yung ano, eh.
33:23.8
Yun yung medyo...
33:25.8
Siguro, medyo mabagal.
33:31.8
Increase yung tempo na yun.
33:33.8
maipasok na natin sa ating planning process.
33:36.8
Kasi right now, parang,
33:38.8
We're still testing the waters, eh.
33:39.8
In terms of yung acceptance nung, ano,
33:41.8
nung those types of missions.
33:44.8
Eh, yung ano po...
33:47.8
Yung mas madalas na, ano,
33:48.8
freedom of navigation and overflight.
33:50.8
Yung mga FONOPs na yan.
33:51.8
Gano'n po ba kadalas yan?
33:53.8
would it help kung talaga mas dalasan pa?
33:55.8
Yung FONOPs kasi, Christian,
33:57.8
nung i-introduce sa atin ang Amerikano yan,
34:00.8
We're actually in the after service.
34:02.8
we rejected that.
34:06.8
is directed against states or countries
34:07.8
na have excessive claims.
34:10.8
is directed against states or countries
34:11.8
na have excessive claims.
34:14.8
is directed against states or countries
34:15.8
na have excessive claims.
34:18.8
is directed against states or countries
34:19.8
na have excessive claims.
34:21.8
nung earlier years,
34:22.8
nung previous years,
34:26.8
yung claim natin sa ating,
34:29.8
sa Kalayangalang Group,
34:30.8
is considered excessive,
34:35.8
kung nagpo-FONOPs yung Amerika doon,
34:38.8
yung FONOPs na yan,
34:39.8
is also directed at us.
34:40.8
Kasi excessive claim yan.
34:42.8
iba yung term na ginagamit natin
34:43.8
for those types of activities
34:44.8
na involving yung
34:45.8
ating Philippine Navy.
34:47.8
that's why they're using it
34:48.8
sa cooperative maritime activity.
34:54.8
may konting legalist,
35:02.8
May legal nuancing.
35:05.8
pwede tayong tamaan.
35:11.8
yung pinag-uusapan natin dito,
35:19.8
in the South China Sea.
35:20.8
Nandito naman diba yung,
35:31.8
obvious naman kung sino meron talaga
35:36.8
Sino ba naman yung nagtayo ng
35:37.8
artificial island?
35:38.8
Pinulubos yung mga
35:39.8
coral reefs dyan,
35:46.8
pag-militarize sila ng
35:50.8
they still adhere
35:56.8
hindi naman sila nagdagdag ng
35:57.8
in-occupy na features eh.
35:58.8
In the like manner,
36:06.8
constructive compliance.
36:08.8
meron constructive compliance
36:12.8
kung titignan natin yung,
36:14.8
yung militarization ng
36:19.8
nang narating yun.
36:21.8
May balik ako dyan.
36:22.8
Kasi sabi ng Chinese
36:23.8
Foreign Ministry,
36:24.8
ang root cause daw,
36:27.8
is that the Philippines
36:28.8
broke its promise
36:32.8
illegally beached
36:34.8
Ito yung tinatawag natin,
36:35.8
BRP Sierra Madre,
36:36.8
attempting to carry out
36:44.8
I like yung mga words,
36:46.8
Large-scale reinforcements.
36:49.8
kung yun ang logic dun sa
36:50.8
adherence sa DOC,
36:51.8
hindi ibig sabihin,
36:52.8
pwede nating improve
36:53.8
yung facilities natin dyan.
36:55.8
Pwedeng i-resupply yung,
36:56.8
yung BRP Sierra Madre,
36:59.8
especially for humanitarian
37:02.8
yung existing structures,
37:03.8
pwedeng kumpunihin.
37:06.8
ginawa na ng isle.
37:07.8
Yung hindi naman isle.
37:12.8
constructive compliance
37:19.8
we are still compliant
37:23.8
ang nagtipigilan lang sa atin
37:28.8
ayusin na natin yan.
37:29.8
I-repair na natin yan
37:30.8
o mag-construct tayo ng
37:32.8
na facility dun sa
37:38.8
mahaba-haba po po ito,
37:41.8
pero maraming salamat po
37:46.8
in the past couple of days,
37:47.8
very alarming ito
37:48.8
para sa maraming Pilipino.
37:51.8
maraming maraming salamat
37:52.8
for joining us tonight po.
37:53.8
Maraming salamat,
38:01.8
paborito po natin
38:02.8
ini-interview yan,
38:04.8
Dahil maraming po tayo
38:05.8
napupulot sa kanya
38:06.8
ng mga impormasyon.
38:08.8
Kung naka-attend lang kayo
38:09.8
ng kanyang mga lectures,
38:10.8
marami kayong matutunan
38:12.8
influence operations.
38:15.8
Yan ang pag-uusapan natin.
38:21.8
yung mga makapili?
38:24.8
dinedefend itong latest na
38:25.8
incidents sa Scarborough Shoal
38:26.8
tsaka sa Ayungin Shoal?
38:28.8
Sana nabubusog kayo,
38:31.8
pang-notchaboy na nyo
38:32.8
dahil sa mga ginagawa
38:36.8
Bago po tayo magtapos,
38:37.8
konting shoutout po
38:38.8
dito sa ating mga
38:43.8
Nag-message mismo
38:45.8
Mr. Virgel Santos.
38:48.8
One of your fans,
38:49.8
a friend of ours,
38:54.8
does not miss your show,
38:56.8
campaigns for it.
38:57.8
She's dying to meet you.
38:59.8
a greeting online
39:04.8
Ang ganda mag-compose
39:08.8
Mr. Virgel Santos,
39:11.8
in the Philippines.
39:12.8
Anong journalist?
39:16.8
Si Miss Huawei Sarmiento.
39:17.8
Maraming maraming salamat po.
39:20.8
personally one of these days.
39:22.8
Huwag kaya arrange po yan
39:23.8
ni Sir Virgel Santos.
39:24.8
Pero maraming maraming
39:29.8
more people about it.
39:30.8
Malaking bagay po yan.
39:36.8
Michael Calinisan
39:39.8
Shoutout sa kanyang asawa.
39:40.8
Pasensya ka na ha.
39:41.8
Sa kanyang asawa,
39:43.8
Nag-birthday po siya
39:44.8
noong December 7.
39:46.8
Maraming maraming salamat
39:51.8
to your wife Rose
39:56.8
si Julius Cabangon.
39:57.8
Nagpadala siya ng
40:03.8
Sino ba itong kausap
40:04.8
natin noong time ito?
40:06.8
si Llamas ang in-interview
40:14.8
Shoutout kay Julius Cabangon
40:16.8
at sa kanyang anak.
40:17.8
Ano bang pangalan
40:21.8
Timothy Cabangon.
40:24.8
tsaka sa daddy mo
40:25.8
si Julius Cabangon.
40:26.8
Maraming maraming salamat
40:36.8
ng maraming shirts
40:37.8
doon sa ano natin.
40:38.8
Shopee and Lazada.
40:41.8
Di ko kalahing ma,
40:45.8
may konti pang natitira.
40:47.8
nagpapahabol tayo
40:51.8
para doon sa mga nabiten,
40:53.8
Mukhang gusto niyo yata
40:54.8
pang regalo doon sa inyong mga kaibigan.
40:56.8
maraming maraming salamat po
41:00.8
may nagtumatawag sa akin
41:02.8
Galit na galit eh.
41:05.8
Nagmi-miss call ah
41:06.8
sa Facebook Messenger.
41:07.8
Galit na galit eh.
41:09.8
ano ba yung trabaho
41:10.8
ng isang journalist.
41:16.8
mukhang nabubulagan
41:17.8
kung sino man siya.
41:19.8
I-explain ko lang
41:20.8
kung ano yung trabaho
41:21.8
ng isang journalist
41:22.8
sa latest video natin,
41:26.8
Iba talaga mag-isip
41:30.8
si Ma'am Vivian Sarabia
41:33.8
Pinsan pala niya,
41:34.8
si Wawi Sarabia Saramiento.
41:37.8
Maraming salamat po.
41:38.8
Maraming salamat po
41:49.8
maraming salamat po.
41:53.8
morder ng shirts.
41:58.8
kilala ko ito ha.
42:03.8
maraming salamat.
42:04.8
Thank you po sa inyo,
42:06.8
Hindi ko akalain.
42:12.8
maraming po tayo pag-uusapan.
42:13.8
Maraming nangyayari
42:14.8
development dyan sa House of Representatives.
42:17.8
suspindihin yung operasyon
42:22.8
congressional hearing
42:26.8
Napag-uusapan yung
42:32.8
Tingnan natin kung ano yung
42:35.8
So, maraming salamat po sa inyo.
42:36.8
Kita-kita po tayo bukas.
42:38.8
Chris Genesiguera
42:40.8
tsaka sa Team Delay.
42:41.8
Maraming, maraming,
42:42.8
maraming salamat po.
42:43.8
Magandang gabi po
43:08.8
Thank you very much.
