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00:01.0
Hello everyone, welcome to our latest episodes of podcast Parasabayan.
00:06.5
Of course, today a little bit cozier than usual, but we are hoping to be joined by the rest of the gang
00:13.4
in the coming days and weeks as we wrap up this year and we try to do analysis,
00:18.8
maybe year-ender analysis, what were the highlights in Philippine foreign policy,
00:22.7
and obviously also looking at what are the things that we should look forward to in 2024
00:26.6
or not so look forward to or be worried about in next year.
00:30.2
Today again, we're joined by Justin. Thank you very much, Justin, for joining us again.
00:34.7
Hello, Richard. Good evening and magandang gabi also to all our viewers.
00:38.7
Maraming salamat. It's always a pleasure having you, Justin, there.
00:41.0
I mean, of course, folks who have been following you on Twitter and different platforms
00:45.1
are pretty aware that you're almost as ADHD as me in terms of making sure you're always on top of the latest developments.
00:53.5
Now, before we go to, I don't know, our good friends Robin Padilla going to,
01:00.0
SMNI. Anyway, let's talk about what happened over the weekend,
01:05.3
which is a situation whereby two things happened, not one, right?
01:10.1
One is water canoning of a ROAR mission, resupply mission to the 2nd Tomas Shoal.
01:16.4
That's not necessarily the first time that that happened, but I think for the first time,
01:19.6
we had the military chief of the Philippines, the office of the Philippine chief of staff,
01:25.4
Bronner there, so that kind of makes the situation different.
01:27.9
Also, for the first time, we had a conflict.
01:30.0
Christmas convoy of civil society groups going there and they were really bullied and forced to turn around.
01:35.3
Having said that, is this variation on a theme or we're really seeing what the National Security Council
01:42.1
and some of our friends in the government are calling an escalation?
01:44.6
Is this something really worrying to you, Justin?
01:47.2
What is your assessment of the situation right now?
01:49.8
Yeah, actually, I do agree with the characterization of escalation for two things.
01:54.9
Siguro, on the one hand, the tactics have always remained the same.
01:58.7
So this is really the same.
02:00.0
The same old problems, the water canoning incident, the use of even the acoustic device against the Coast Guard.
02:07.0
And also, the problem is, this time around, those tactics led to a collision incident with a Philippine vessel,
02:15.5
which China claims to be a scratching incident, trying to downplay the significance of that event.
02:21.4
Which, of course, from a policy perspective, is significant because we do have a mutual defense treaty with the United States.
02:30.0
It doesn't really distinguish whether an attack is intentional or not.
02:33.7
So we are really looking at whether there is harm done on Philippine public vessels,
02:39.0
which in this case, actually, to be frank about it, really happened.
02:42.5
It just so happened na hindi siya lethal at this point in time.
02:45.7
But what this does show us is that yung gray zone tactics by China are not actually as safe or yung below the threshold of conflict.
02:55.8
They're not so gray anymore.
02:57.5
They're not so gray anymore.
03:00.0
So the tactics can actually be lethal.
03:02.0
It actually led to the disablement of one of the Philippine vessels.
03:06.2
Nasira yung engine.
03:07.5
And additionally, of course, according to the AFP, hindi alam ng China that one of the boats that they collided with
03:15.2
and water cannon actually had the chief of staff na armed forces of the Philippines.
03:20.4
So in that respect, all of these tactics by China are finally backfiring onto it
03:26.0
because it keeps on doing these actions in the past few years.
03:29.7
Nobody's opposing it.
03:31.1
And now that the Philippines is doing what any proper country should be doing,
03:35.0
including resupplying its own military vessels,
03:38.3
force projecting within its own territory or at least within its EEZ,
03:43.0
all of these things are routine activities by the state.
03:46.3
And China is the one that has deliberately chosen to intercept those missions.
03:51.4
So that, I think, is where the escalation is.
03:54.0
The tactics remain the same, but China's policy has actually exacerbated the situation.
03:59.7
If we take a look at the situation kasi,
04:03.1
yung behavior ng China toward the Philippines is actually very unusual.
04:06.8
And no doubt about it, it's because it's trying to undermine the credibility of the foreign policy
04:11.7
of the current Marcos government.
04:13.7
If we think about it, China has not responded like this
04:17.2
when Vietnam builds some of its military facilities in the South China Sea.
04:23.1
China has also not responded like this, for example, to...
04:26.6
You think, Justin, they're out here to embarrass us?
04:29.0
Is this your reading?
04:29.7
They're really hard to teach us a lesson.
04:31.9
To stop us, kumbaga.
04:33.2
Actually, yung embarrassment is only a means to an end.
04:35.8
What does the embarrassment actually show about China's tactic?
04:39.7
It's actually adopting a zero-tolerance approach to the Philippines right now.
04:44.6
It's not doing that against other Southeast Asian claimant states.
04:48.0
Ginagawa lang ito specifically para mapahiya yung administration.
04:52.4
So that is really the logic behind it.
04:57.1
Now, you have a good point because for me,
04:59.7
we're perhaps somewhere in between gray zone and armed attack.
05:04.0
It's a totally new category that I think we have to look at.
05:06.9
So I can always say the gray zone is 50 shades,
05:10.0
but this is a very dark shade that is really just short of armed attack.
05:14.8
Because it's very easy to say, oh, it's gray zone because it's not armed attack.
05:18.2
It's just below threshold.
05:19.2
But there are levels to below threshold, right?
05:21.3
And this is really reaching the tipping point.
05:23.6
We're almost crossing the red line here.
05:25.5
But at the same time, I mean, Justin, doesn't this also expose the limits?
05:29.7
Of the Philippine-U.S. treaty alliance?
05:31.7
Because every time something like this happens,
05:33.8
including this latest incident, which you and I both agree,
05:37.1
is something of a different order of magnitude
05:39.3
and coming from a different policy point of reference,
05:43.2
they come up with the same statement.
05:44.4
Any armed attack on Philippine vessels, soldiers, aircraft, whatever,
05:48.1
will invoke them.
05:49.0
Okay, yeah, but obviously that's not what China is doing.
05:52.3
But it's not like what China is doing is anything like your typical gray zone harassment.
05:57.1
This is something north of that harassment.
05:59.7
So, don't you think this is a time for another, I don't know,
06:03.3
revision of guidelines or even the U.S. to change tone?
06:05.6
Because I see friends in D.C. also coming out and saying,
06:08.9
it's like, yeah, I mean, like, parang di sapate.
06:12.2
We cannot just, you know, definition of insanity, right?
06:14.8
Doing the same thing, expecting to get a different outcome.
06:16.7
Because clearly China is not only here to school the Philippines,
06:19.8
it's also here to embarrass U.S. and show the limits of the Philippine-U.S. alliance.
06:24.3
So either there's something wrong with the alliance
06:26.2
or the U.S. itself is not willing to,
06:29.1
to appreciate the nature of the threat on the ground.
06:31.7
I mean, what is your reading on this situation?
06:33.2
The implications for the great power rivalry aspect and alliance aspect?
06:37.2
I think, ilagay natin sa in-context, no?
06:40.0
I think the problem right now with the situation is
06:42.2
both the Philippine and the U.S. governments
06:44.7
have been very much sold into this idea of
06:48.1
assertive transparency being the end-all be-all
06:52.1
of the strategies of West Philippine Sea.
06:54.7
Meaning to say, tumigil tayo with exposing China's
06:59.1
aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.
07:01.6
Tumigil tayo with just garnering international sympathy.
07:06.0
Pero if you look at it on the ground, for example,
07:08.7
during these incidents,
07:10.7
wala namang specific request yung Philippine side actually
07:13.8
from the United States on what exactly is to do.
07:16.5
And from what I've heard during these recent incidents,
07:19.6
the request that came from the government was for
07:21.7
foreign governments to issue statements
07:24.7
sympathizing with the Philippine position.
07:27.6
So the question is,
07:29.1
transparency na nga lang ba talaga
07:30.8
yung end goal natin dito, really?
07:33.3
So it's a question of
07:34.6
appropriate ba yung ganong strategy of name and shame
07:38.4
to an actor like China,
07:40.6
which, frankly, is, you know, shameless.
07:44.5
It's really shameless.
07:45.0
Yeah, it's an insult.
07:47.1
Kaya nga siya, it's engaging in all these behaviors
07:49.3
in the South China Sea.
07:50.9
It cannot be named and shamed
07:52.8
as the ultima ration ng policy natin.
07:56.8
So ngayon, we're now forced into,
07:59.1
ano nga yun yung operational response
08:01.3
that is appropriate to this?
08:03.2
So, for example, merong questions of
08:05.0
whether we should, the Philippines should
08:07.2
call on the U.S. to shadow
08:09.0
Philippine vessels during resupply missions.
08:12.2
I think that's a concrete way of trying to
08:14.2
operationalize and put teeth
08:16.3
to the U.S.-Philippine alliance.
08:18.4
Although, of course, that's still up for debate
08:20.0
kasi nga, ang position ng AFP dito is that
08:22.7
all these sovereign missions should be solely
08:25.2
conducted ng Pilipinas.
08:27.1
Which, to some extent, I would agree,
08:28.9
I'd agree to that, no?
08:30.6
But, different case kasi, yung South China Sea,
08:34.2
merong parts lang niyan yung kiniklaim ng Philippines
08:37.3
as part of our territory or as part of our EEZ.
08:40.5
Most parts of that would be considered
08:42.4
as international waters, which yun yung tinatry natin
08:46.4
to invite actors like Australia, US, Japan
08:50.1
to conduct military exercises in.
08:52.7
Because kung international waters yun,
08:54.4
they should be able to operate in those areas
08:56.6
without harassment from China.
08:58.9
So that is medyo mas okay na nag-i-invite tayo
09:01.9
ng foreign presence in those areas which we do also
09:04.8
consider as international waters.
09:07.1
So, that's where we stand right now
09:09.7
with respect to this.
09:10.8
But I think yung bottom line talaga dito is
09:12.8
kailangan natin to go beyond this paradigm
09:17.4
of yung assertive transparency.
09:19.8
Because fundamentally talaga, actually,
09:21.6
I think mali nga yung naging rhetoric dito
09:24.5
ng NTFWPS about it.
09:28.4
our true strategy sa West Philippine Sea
09:31.1
is what we call offshore balancing, right?
09:34.4
This has been a similar strategy nung panahon
09:36.4
ni President Aquino,
09:37.9
which was also continued under President Duterte,
09:40.7
which is to rely on a big external power
09:44.0
to help augment yung security forces natin
09:46.9
to balance out yung forces on the ground
09:52.0
Which is why we're inviting all of these
09:53.8
international actors to join with us
09:55.9
in an international coalition
09:57.2
to help protect the country.
09:58.4
Philippine territory
10:00.1
and its exclusive economic zone.
10:02.3
So, that is really what the strategy is.
10:04.7
So, at the end of the day,
10:06.3
it involves force projection.
10:08.9
So, it doesn't stop at calling out China,
10:10.8
hey, you're doing the wrong behavior.
10:12.3
It actually involves,
10:13.6
we need to leverage on deploying our own forces
10:16.6
and if necessary,
10:18.7
bringing in other forces as well
10:20.6
to increase yung deterrent value
10:24.2
ng posture natin with respect to China.
10:28.4
Because we're all reaching the moment of truth, right?
10:33.3
On the share of Madre situation.
10:35.2
And, you know, I get your point about Vietnam
10:37.3
doing its own militarization,
10:39.1
Malaysia, you know,
10:39.8
having built its own golf courses
10:41.4
and, you know, lying, lying.
10:43.2
I get it, but, I mean,
10:45.4
how should I put it?
10:46.8
I mean, this, like,
10:48.1
the problem is that this thing is so publicized
10:50.7
that both sides have, you know,
10:53.0
dug themselves into a position of non-compromise, right?
10:56.7
And the fact that we're,
10:58.4
we're bringing other powers in,
11:01.0
there's also this aspect of China
11:02.4
trying to say to its own people
11:04.2
and other allies and potential rivals that,
11:06.6
hey, we're not going to be intimidated.
11:08.2
You can bring in half of the world,
11:09.6
we're still going to stand up.
11:11.1
And the more these people you're bringing in
11:14.5
whether Japanese,
11:15.8
for them are Western,
11:16.8
Australian, American, European,
11:18.2
the more this is easy for us to say,
11:20.2
this is us against the world.
11:21.5
Kind of like how Putin kind of portrayed himself as a victim.
11:24.3
Like, one of the most preposterous things in the war in Ukraine
11:27.7
we are the victim.
11:28.4
You know what I'm saying?
11:30.7
Yung mga kapalmoks ng ganyan moves, diba?
11:33.0
So, I'm just saying,
11:34.8
a lot of that is because,
11:36.9
as we try to publicize the issue more,
11:39.4
the more it incentivizes both sides
11:41.2
to dig themselves into a position of non-compromise, right?
11:44.5
So, it's kind of like a chicken game.
11:47.0
We walk ourselves into a chicken game, isn't it?
11:49.4
I mean, that's the worry I have.
11:50.8
Actually, may response ako niya.
11:52.4
I was just writing about this topic,
11:54.8
exact topic this afternoon,
11:56.1
na pag tinase natin,
11:58.4
saan nga ba talaga nanggaling yung
12:00.4
yung escalation spiral na ito?
12:03.2
And ako, personally, ha,
12:05.6
I think it's a misstep on the part ng China
12:07.9
to have continued with these policies
12:10.9
of zero tolerance against the Philippines,
12:13.0
knowing full well that,
12:14.6
you know, kahit hindi naman si President Marcos ang presidente,
12:17.2
the Philippines is still going to conduct a resupply mission
12:19.7
for BRP Sierra Madre.
12:22.3
They can downplay it as much as they want,
12:24.2
but even during the Duterte administration,
12:26.2
2019, nagkaroon tayo ng swarming incident,
12:28.4
dyan, the Duterte administration had to respond to it.
12:31.3
Secretary Lorenzana had to respond to it.
12:33.7
But, yung point kasi dyan is,
12:36.7
yung China, because of its,
12:38.1
yung bagong zero tolerance approach niya to the Philippines,
12:41.0
kasi, you know, China has been saying,
12:43.1
nakakapag-resupply naman kayo dyan
12:44.7
nung panahon ni President Duterte,
12:46.3
and there was no problem,
12:47.6
which exactly proves my point.
12:49.7
In short, yung resupply ng BRP Sierra Madre
12:52.1
does not actually have any strategic value for China.
12:56.1
We can, the Philippines can resupply,
12:58.1
the BRP Sierra Madre, all we want,
13:00.0
and China will still have a dominance
13:01.9
in terms of the force presence in the area.
13:04.4
So, actually, for all intents and purposes,
13:06.9
China can just let these resupply missions continue,
13:10.3
and it will not incur any damage to,
13:13.2
actually, in reality,
13:14.2
it will not incur any damage to its military position.
13:17.2
But, it has chosen to respond to each and every resupply mission,
13:21.5
and I think that's where the problem is.
13:23.6
Kasi, it put itself into that position.
13:25.6
And recently, meron sa balita na,
13:28.1
in-announce ni Senator Angara
13:30.1
that the Philippines allotted budget in 2024
13:33.8
to construct a permanent facility sa Ayungin Shoal.
13:38.7
So, in that respect, actually,
13:40.2
we already have all the ingredients for an impending,
13:43.4
frankly, an impending crisis already there.
13:46.3
Kasi yung China has already said,
13:48.6
you cannot bring in construction materials in that area.
13:51.8
Yung Philippines naman,
13:53.4
we have been forced into a corner
13:55.3
to respond with these kinds of actions.
13:58.1
hindi nga nila pinapayagad yung resupply missions eh.
14:01.6
So, basically, they allow nothing.
14:03.7
Yung nangyari ng last weekend,
14:05.2
Saturday and Sunday,
14:06.8
China blocked even yung resupply mission
14:11.0
for Filipino fishermen.
14:12.9
So, that's not even a military activity.
14:15.9
That's for Filipino fishermen
14:17.1
na binigyan ng oil and gas,
14:19.7
supposedly, dapat ng BIFAR.
14:21.9
But, they also prevented that.
14:23.3
So, China is signaling to the Philippines
14:25.4
this all-or-nothing mindset that
14:28.1
we will not allow any activity whatsoever.
14:31.0
So, kung hindi rin pala i-a-allow ng China
14:33.5
yung any activity by the Philippines,
14:36.0
then the Philippines is more willing
14:37.8
to take on risks and gamble.
14:40.4
And I think that's where the escalation spiral
14:44.5
Kasi the Philippines is being boxed
14:46.4
into a position where it has no choice.
14:48.2
It's a chicken game.
14:48.5
I mean, it is a chicken game.
14:50.0
I mean, this is a classic bully
14:51.5
trying to just stare down a smaller country
14:54.7
and say, oh, you got your friends?
14:56.4
Let's see who your friends are.
14:57.7
Let's see what they can bring.
14:59.4
And, you know, for me,
15:00.5
again, the context matters here, you know?
15:02.6
And this is where I really blame Duterte.
15:05.0
Because one of the worst legacies
15:07.0
of the Duterte era
15:07.9
was the psychological legacy.
15:10.1
Domestic front is the psychology
15:11.7
of bara-bara drug war.
15:13.7
It's a psychology
15:14.3
o pwede mong bastusin kahit sinong tao
15:16.0
and you're gonna look cool.
15:17.6
On the geopolitical front,
15:19.0
I think the psychology there
15:20.3
was almost the complete opposite.
15:22.7
The Philippines is our toy.
15:25.9
Di ba? That's how the Chinese got...
15:27.7
We can just manipulate them anyway.
15:28.8
We got our guy there in the Malacanang.
15:30.5
He essentially spoiled China
15:33.2
by being such a subservient guy.
15:36.2
I actually agree, no?
15:37.1
A subservient guy.
15:39.4
During the Duterte administration,
15:41.0
there were so many concessions to China.
15:44.4
yung Jemver incident
15:46.1
na nabangga yung Filipino fishing
15:48.6
mga fisherfolk natin doon, no?
15:52.1
The Philippine government,
15:58.1
si Secretary Cusi, I think,
15:60.0
went on the ground to try to smoothen...
16:01.9
Department of Energy Secretary, yeah.
16:03.9
Went on the ground
16:04.8
try to smoothen things
16:05.9
so that the fishermen
16:06.8
don't try to make a big issue
16:08.3
out of that situation.
16:11.4
at that point in time,
16:12.5
the Philippine government
16:13.3
was doing China's work for it, right?
16:15.5
Yung trying to do this public diplomacy thing.
16:18.0
And they are doing it
16:19.0
even without China requesting it.
16:20.9
So there were so many concessions
16:24.0
na hindi naman kailangan
16:25.1
gawin ng Philippine government.
16:27.4
yun na yung naging bagong
16:28.7
cognitive baseline ng China.
16:31.6
every Philippine government
16:33.7
to continue to do
16:34.9
the same types of actions,
16:36.7
which is, of course,
16:37.4
very unrealistic.
16:39.5
China ended up believing
16:40.6
its own propaganda.
16:42.2
The Duterte administration,
16:43.7
in historical context,
16:47.0
Pero ang nangyari,
16:48.3
China is now using
16:50.8
from that anomaly
16:53.3
what should be the new normal
16:54.8
for its military.
16:58.5
the daughter of that anomaly
16:60.0
is the number two,
17:00.9
at least officially speaking.
17:02.2
That anomaly himself
17:03.2
is around and doing
17:05.0
freelancing diplomacy.
17:07.4
is openly coming out
17:08.8
and bashing the government,
17:10.0
spreading disinformation.
17:11.8
is on a TV channel,
17:14.3
supposedly a media network,
17:16.4
ranting right and left.
17:18.2
is still popular.
17:19.4
So, if you're China,
17:20.6
I don't think you're
17:21.1
totally ridiculous
17:22.0
except your analysis
17:22.8
is very low quality.
17:26.2
because China can see this
17:28.8
yung vice president
17:30.6
against some domestic
17:31.6
policies of the president,
17:33.3
it starts to think
17:34.1
maybe down the line
17:35.5
she will also do that
17:36.9
for foreign policy, right?
17:41.1
hindi dapat nag...
17:42.3
I think the government
17:43.1
is being a bit chaotic
17:45.0
There's no message discipline.
17:47.5
if you look at it,
17:48.8
Kung ikaw yung China,
17:50.2
you will not really be deterred
17:51.6
because you can see
17:52.4
that yung Philippine government
17:53.8
is fighting amongst itself.
17:57.9
on the weakest link, no?
18:00.1
Hahanapin ko dito,
18:01.0
ano nga ba dito yung...
18:01.9
Sino dito yung kaya
18:02.7
kung ma-intimidate?
18:04.3
And if that person
18:05.1
that I can intimidate
18:06.3
is someone who can
18:07.4
change the policy,
18:08.7
then I will keep on doing
18:10.0
this type of policy.
18:11.7
So, yung Philippine government,
18:13.1
because of all these
18:13.9
internal squabbles
18:16.6
hindi natin tuloy
18:18.1
yung policy natin.
18:21.7
to China right now, no?
18:26.2
of the Duterte family
18:31.7
na what they are doing
18:33.2
in front of China,
18:34.4
in front of the whole world
18:35.4
criticizing the administration,
18:37.2
this has a very clear danger
18:40.0
to the China policy.
18:41.5
Any president naman
18:42.4
that's being contradicted
18:46.5
nagpe-president ka
18:48.7
not to have a united front
18:50.1
against your adversary,
18:51.7
in this case, China.
18:53.7
the argument there is that
18:55.5
we can have a debate
18:57.7
of not overlying on America,
18:59.4
of calibrating our position
19:03.1
you cannot debate
19:03.8
the negative impact
19:05.2
of them acting as spoilers.
19:08.8
that was President Duterte,
19:10.8
This anomaly is still around.
19:16.5
he's spreading disinformation,
19:18.3
he's causing discord,
19:19.7
he's berating government officials,
19:22.2
and he's giving this false idea
19:24.0
that they still got a man,
19:25.5
not in Manila now,
19:27.9
who can they bring back
19:29.5
to the palace one day,
19:31.6
maybe not the daughter.
19:32.8
You know what I'm saying?
19:33.5
So, I see what your point is.
19:35.2
That is the consequences
19:36.3
of what the Dutertes are doing,
19:37.8
which is very devastating
19:40.0
katulad ang sinabi
19:40.7
ng mga kaibigan natin
19:41.7
na DDS back in the day,
19:44.0
kayo sumusuporta sa gobyerno?
19:46.0
Bakit puro kayong nega?
19:48.5
ng ating presidente,
19:50.5
hala, di ko sinasabi sa kanya.
19:52.6
just to be clear din naman
19:57.1
criticism of government
19:58.1
is perfectly fine.
20:00.1
specifically what the Duterte family
20:01.9
had done in recent months,
20:03.3
yung pagpunta ni President Duterte
20:05.8
in his personal capacity
20:07.8
to visit Chinese President Xi Jinping,
20:10.3
naunahan pa niya si...
20:11.7
With no coordination
20:12.9
with the DFA whatsoever.
20:14.5
Naunahan pa niya si President Marcos
20:16.4
at the time na meron tayong tensions
20:17.9
with maritime tensions
20:19.8
with China at the time.
20:22.2
that is really unprecedented
20:25.1
to the incumbent president, no?
20:27.3
Si President Aquino
20:28.3
disagreed as much as he did
20:30.8
of President Duterte
20:32.3
from 2016 to 2022.
20:34.5
You never see President Aquino
20:35.9
going to the United States
20:37.4
and trying to, you know,
20:39.6
say na the president is,
20:41.4
Philippine president
20:42.0
is doing the wrong things
20:43.8
trying to have a private audience
20:45.3
with, say, with Obama or Trump, no?
20:47.6
Aquino never did any of that.
20:50.5
I think this is also a learning
20:51.6
for other future presidents.
20:53.9
not to try to undermine,
20:55.1
you're the incumbent in office, no?
20:58.9
It should really be an expectation.
21:00.9
Right, especially in this time, no?
21:03.1
Well, I would blame also BBM.
21:05.6
BBM should have come out
21:06.6
and dropped on the line.
21:08.2
That's the problem
21:08.8
with being conflict avoidant.
21:10.5
If you're so conflict avoidant,
21:13.1
Yeah, he invited conflict
21:15.2
by being conflict avoidant
21:16.8
because if you look weak,
21:18.5
even if he's not weak,
21:19.4
I think he has a far better grasp
21:21.3
of international policy.
21:22.8
I think BBM has been
21:23.7
far more courageous
21:25.1
On West Philippine Sea
21:26.3
than someone who called him
21:28.7
But he should have drawn
21:31.0
And I think it's his proxies
21:34.1
Attacking not the former president
21:35.5
but people around
21:36.5
the former president
21:37.2
or people closer.
21:38.1
So, this proxy wars,
21:39.7
I think the president
21:40.8
should have come down
21:42.1
hey, ayusin niyan.
21:43.6
The country is suffering.
21:45.6
Good for the country.
21:46.3
So, I get that point.
21:52.3
and intellectual ascendancy
21:55.2
to come and lecture us
21:56.4
on West Philippine Sea.
21:57.4
They had six years in power.
21:59.6
What did they get
22:04.0
prevention of war
22:05.7
supposed good thing
22:07.4
Like, China is not going
22:08.4
to invade the Philippines.
22:09.4
I mean, Aquino took them
22:10.6
to international court
22:11.5
from 2013 to 2016.
22:13.2
There was no war.
22:14.2
There was nothing
22:14.7
like a re-bank incident
22:16.9
There's absolutely
22:18.2
that China will go to war
22:19.1
because China is not,
22:20.3
well, they're not Russia.
22:21.7
They're not Putin.
22:22.8
They're calculating.
22:24.8
Time is on their side.
22:26.9
Duterte was embarrassing
22:28.0
Xi and Chinese leaders
22:31.9
I asserted arbitration award.
22:33.2
Like, that kind of nonsense, right?
22:34.8
That kind of duwag policy.
22:36.1
Now, the thing is,
22:37.8
they got no big-ticket
22:38.8
infrastructure investments.
22:40.0
They got no compromise
22:41.1
in the West Philippine Sea.
22:44.3
happened in 2019,
22:46.3
The Juan Felipe Riff,
22:47.4
Whitsun Riff happened.
22:52.1
from the president
22:56.0
there was no debt trap.
22:57.5
Dito, mali yung opposition.
22:58.5
There was pledge trap.
22:59.9
Puro lang pledge lang China.
23:01.1
Nothing really coming.
23:03.1
they have the worst record
23:04.3
of dealing with China
23:05.4
of any Filipino president I know.
23:06.9
I think Arroyo dealt
23:07.8
way better with China.
23:10.3
karaoke diplomacy
23:11.0
was way better with China.
23:14.0
but at the same time,
23:14.8
he'll bring in Americans.
23:16.0
At the same time,
23:16.6
he'll work the ASEAN diplomacy
23:18.0
as at the same time,
23:19.7
AFP modernization.
23:21.7
I had my disagreements
23:22.5
with that administration
23:24.8
once the Scarborough incident
23:26.9
they did their job,
23:27.7
they pushed for AFP modernization,
23:29.1
we got the FA50s,
23:31.2
this is the worst record.
23:32.9
The Duterte administration
23:33.4
has the worst record
23:34.9
when it comes to dealing
23:35.8
of any Filipino administration
23:37.2
and for them to lecture
23:40.9
who met Mao Zedong
23:42.3
when he was probably
23:43.6
younger than you and I,
23:49.1
at the highest level.
23:50.3
He was part of the mission
23:51.2
together with his mom
23:52.0
when they went to China
23:53.1
to normalize these ties.
23:55.4
to my interviews,
23:56.6
I had with Ambassador Romaldes
23:59.2
because he's a family friend,
24:00.9
he's a close family
24:02.9
he knows about this.
24:03.9
He was in Beijing
24:04.7
when we normalized
24:05.4
our ties with Maoist China
24:08.3
The fundamental problem
24:09.5
with the Dutertismo logic
24:11.9
they do not understand
24:16.9
or you're shooting yourself
24:18.6
you will be treated
24:20.9
he got nothing from China.
24:23.1
all of these pro-Duterte people
24:24.2
are now citing Vietnam.
24:25.5
I just wrote a piece
24:29.5
because they're nice to China,
24:31.6
they're getting BYD investment,
24:33.2
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
24:35.0
there are many reasons
24:35.7
why Vietnam is getting investments
24:37.1
including their geography.
24:38.3
They're just next to Paris.
24:39.3
But the other thing is
24:40.1
Vietnam first established
24:43.7
fought for those red lines,
24:45.3
got China's respect
24:46.4
and then dealt with them
24:47.4
from a position of strength.
24:49.2
They used to even have
24:50.3
an active military conflict.
24:54.2
is this is really,
24:55.0
I think where our episode
24:56.1
should culminate is
25:00.7
ang nagmamagaling dyan is
25:04.1
ang baba ng tingin
25:06.8
dahil sa ginagawa ni Digong,
25:09.2
ng alliance natin
25:10.3
because of Digong,
25:11.4
dahil yung US din,
25:12.4
hindi ganong kareliable
25:15.2
they will stand by us
25:16.5
under these conditions
25:18.5
the mutual defense treaty
25:21.9
in a specific South China Sea.
25:24.6
yun ang point ko eh.
25:26.5
we need a year or two
25:30.4
that Philippines,
25:32.0
whoever is the president,
25:33.5
you're not gonna get
25:36.0
And this is not about
25:37.8
This is not about
25:41.2
this is the conspiracy theory
25:42.9
from my friends in China
25:45.2
They keep on saying,
25:46.3
oh, Marcos got a deal
25:47.5
with the Americans,
25:49.0
kaya siguro pro-American China.
25:50.4
See how dismissive they are?
25:53.2
now you care about
25:54.4
the Marcos corruption.
25:56.0
Where were you last year?
26:05.2
unsustainable talaga
26:06.5
yung policy ng China
26:08.5
South China Sea ngayon.
26:11.3
hindi niya ma-imagine
26:13.4
will stand up to China
26:15.3
its national sovereignty.
26:17.2
Parang sa kanila,
26:18.0
kapag nag-stand up ka,
26:19.9
it must be something
26:20.7
you have been bought
26:24.4
Because that's how
26:24.9
they do it themselves.
26:27.4
Hunsen of Cambodia
26:29.4
Do you think it's out of love
26:30.4
and ideological target?
26:32.2
Because Hunsen gets like,
26:33.5
one-third of his budget
26:34.6
from aid in China
26:37.0
Yung difference lang kasi
26:38.0
with the Duterte admin,
26:39.3
if we really sum it up,
26:41.7
it had a very distorted view
26:45.8
Hindi nga siya hedging.
26:47.0
It was really tilting
26:50.8
we have some political camps
26:52.0
in the Philippines
26:52.9
bakit hindi tayo katulad
26:56.5
which is a bit more neutral
26:58.4
a bit more distant
26:59.2
toward the United States,
27:00.9
medyo mas balanced.
27:02.1
if you look at those countries,
27:05.0
yung border disputes nila
27:07.7
it led to some casualties.
27:09.3
They really stood for
27:11.0
yung demarcation line nila
27:13.3
in their northern border
27:16.9
And that led to some disputes.
27:21.2
it didn't lead to
27:23.3
of China-India tie.
27:26.3
yung interpretation nila
27:27.3
ng independent foreign policy
27:29.8
unarmed neutrality.
27:33.0
independent foreign policy
27:34.7
you're not being too close
27:36.3
to any particular camp
27:37.5
but at the same time
27:38.2
you still stick up
27:39.3
dun sa mga national security
27:41.2
non-negotiables mo.
27:43.6
But for the Philippine case,
27:45.2
pag inisip mo talaga siya,
27:47.1
ng BRP Sierra Madre,
27:48.7
itong pagpatrol natin
27:52.6
operational non-negotiables
27:54.5
for the Philippines.
27:55.7
Kahit sinong presidente,
27:56.8
they have to faithfully
27:57.8
execute that function.
28:01.4
kaya this is really
28:02.4
where all the problem
28:03.5
is coming to surface
28:07.5
toward the Philippines
28:10.4
that the Philippine policy
28:13.1
But you also examine
28:15.3
Tama ba yung policy
28:17.1
toward the Philippines?
28:19.5
all the wrong assumptions
28:23.0
Philippine administration.
28:24.7
It's taking the extreme
28:27.5
for how it can conduct
28:31.0
how can it conduct
28:32.1
good relations like that?
28:33.6
that's still up for debate.
28:34.8
We'll see how things span out.
28:37.1
I don't think things are looking
28:39.2
Public opinion in the Philippines
28:40.6
is not with them.
28:44.9
are raising concerns
28:48.5
and on this episode,
28:51.1
me might need sponsors,
28:57.1
what is our advice here?
28:59.4
Because the way it looks to me
29:01.3
this is a little bit risky,
29:02.8
this is a little bit scary,
29:07.3
that we have to go through
29:10.2
We have to make it clear
29:11.8
that we're not going to be
29:14.1
that we're not just
29:16.1
and we can do this
29:19.6
Filipino president,
29:20.4
it's not going to be
29:22.8
in the worst sense of the word.
29:24.4
It's not going to happen again.
29:26.1
It's time for you
29:27.8
and accept situation
29:29.3
and stop gaslighting
29:31.2
because all we are doing
29:34.6
our sovereign rights
29:36.6
exclusive economic zone.
29:38.0
It is not the Philippines
29:39.4
85% of the South China Sea Basin.
29:44.3
exclusive economic zone,
29:46.2
that's all we're doing.
29:48.5
how do you see this?
29:49.7
Should we just stick
29:50.5
to the status quo
29:51.2
and what are the additions?
29:52.3
What are the pluses
29:53.6
we should bring in
29:55.3
proactive transparency initiative
29:57.1
and non-compromising
30:01.7
I'll be very honest.
30:11.8
At the end of the day,
30:14.3
deterrence is built.
30:17.1
tell the other side
30:18.0
that we are going
30:19.6
with these resupply missions
30:20.8
despite your opposition
30:22.3
we are determined
30:23.9
We will respond to you
30:24.8
if you stop them.
30:28.3
these resupply missions
30:32.1
we need to really
30:36.4
you don't even need to
30:37.6
invite American battleships
30:41.9
that's well within
30:42.7
prerogative of the Philippines.
30:48.7
to bring in our allies.
30:50.9
at the end of the day,
30:52.3
you don't need to
30:53.5
immediately go to
30:54.5
that escalation point.
30:57.1
what we're doing.
30:58.5
The problem talaga dito is
30:59.7
how China is responding
31:02.8
Philippine activity.
31:06.2
is the flashpoint
31:07.3
regarding this conflict.
31:10.1
political sphere,
31:12.6
I think the Marcos
31:13.3
administration should work on.
31:14.8
I think it should try to
31:18.2
relations with China.
31:20.0
Kasi ang nangyayari ngayon,
31:23.7
statements from the
31:25.2
Philippine government,
31:26.7
the next flashpoint
31:30.6
it's the South China Sea,
31:34.1
it draws unnecessary
31:35.5
attention to the Philippines
31:38.3
concomitant actions
31:41.1
we're hyping up support na,
31:42.4
oh, this is an important issue
31:43.8
that the international community
31:44.9
should care about.
31:47.0
on the ground ba?
31:47.7
What are we doing?
31:48.9
I was looking at the statement
31:55.7
yung swarming of Chinese ships
31:58.0
in the 2nd Thomas Shoal
31:59.8
malapit sa BRP Sierra Madre.
32:02.6
it's not an invasion.
32:05.8
I would leave it to them
32:06.7
what kind of, you know,
32:07.5
mental gymnastics
32:08.9
they want to say it.
32:10.6
kung ganun ang stratcom
32:11.5
ng government natin.
32:13.4
that's actually an indication na
32:14.9
the Philippine government
32:19.4
as much as it can
32:20.5
without compromising
32:22.3
operational security
32:28.9
doing all these things.
32:32.9
some of the relations
32:34.4
and then try to figure out
32:42.8
military presence
32:48.8
Christmas convoy.
32:52.8
si Commodore Tariela
32:54.2
this in public na
32:56.5
at that incident,
32:59.4
sabi ng Philippine government,
33:01.2
don't do this convoy,
33:03.8
at this point in time.
33:05.8
because of the mounting
33:10.3
they supported it.
33:12.3
by the time na sinuportahan
33:13.6
nila yung convoy,
33:15.3
sila na ngayon yung
33:16.9
captain ng ship to,
33:18.1
yes, continue mo,
33:22.7
Chinese harassment,
33:24.2
had they done that
33:25.2
from the very beginning,
33:26.4
we would have avoided
33:29.2
that China preventing
33:37.0
politically significant event.
33:39.1
we will take some time
33:40.0
to recover from that
33:40.9
very public humiliation.
33:46.0
what the Philippine government
33:48.9
to support convoys
33:52.8
ensure that those
33:58.7
Because the moment
34:00.2
we will allow this convoy,
34:02.9
a private activity,
34:06.4
that it's a civilian mission,
34:11.2
of the full support
34:12.5
of our security sector.
34:13.7
Kasi trabaho nila yan eh.
34:16.2
And we should avoid
34:18.0
political humiliations
34:20.7
kung gagawin nyo.
34:21.2
Gagawin din pala natin
34:22.9
na yun to begin with.
34:27.8
We have to just go through
34:28.8
this quite rough patch
34:31.5
part of growing up.
34:34.1
for the Philippines
34:40.6
We don't have to escalate.
34:41.8
We just have to continue
34:42.7
what we've been doing.
34:44.3
And we don't have to
34:46.5
titigil mo yung mga convoy,
34:48.8
resupply missions
34:51.8
pushback from China
34:53.3
That's why there's
34:53.8
diplomacy, right?
34:55.4
what we're looking at here
34:56.7
is calibrated escalation
34:59.4
calibrated assertiveness
35:01.0
if you can put it that way
35:02.2
and operationally
35:05.1
thank you very much
35:07.7
fantastic discussion.
35:08.9
this was very timely.
35:13.8
but we have to really
35:15.3
what's happening here
35:16.1
and what should be
35:17.5
Thank you very much
35:21.2
what should be done
35:22.0
with China disinformation,
35:27.4
whether we want it or not,
35:28.8
the future of West Philippines
35:29.6
will also depend on
35:30.5
the future of our politics
35:31.6
and how we deal with
35:35.0
and threats to our democracy.
35:36.2
Thank you very much,
