A Pod Para Sa Bayan episode.

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Okay, for some reason, na-cut yung sinasabi natin yan.

No, the context essentially was this.

This argument that if you are tougher in asserting our own rights,

we may risk massive economic relations with China.

And what we have been saying is that there's no evidence to back that up.

Because if you look at trade linkages between the Philippines and China,

actually, it has consistently increased over the decades, over the past decades.

So you can clearly see here, right, the trade from 2010 to 2019,

through Aquino all the way to pre-pandemic era, it increased consistently.

So data after data shows that it looks like, you know,

when it comes to bilateral trade relations, which, by the way,

increasingly benefits China more than us.

They're far more exporting to us than us exporting.

They're earning way more from us than we from the...

It looks like it's almost agnostic.

It's geopolitically agnostic.

It is not sensitive to...

to any kind of, you know, geopolitical shock.

So this whole myth that if you're nice to China, you'll get huge investments,

which is the next question.

Okay, trade, it looks like it's not...

There's no strong correlation whatsoever with geopolitics.

Investment, maybe, there's some correlation.

But Duterte was super nice to them and yet got no high-quality big-ticket infrastructure investments.

Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?

Where is the Mindanao Railway Project?

You know, like our version of Bandung-Jakarta.

Where is the Mindanao Railway Project?

Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?

Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?

Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?

Where is the Bandung-Jakarta Railway Project?

Where is the Clark Railway Project?

None of them came in, and please don't talk about some small bridge

that, you know, enrich a few Chinese contractors

sitting there somewhere in Pasig, Pasay, whatever.

That's not a big-ticket infrastructure project.

Please increase...

Medyo taas nyo naman yung standards, you know.

So my point, and your point is,

the hypocrisy of this argument is that

when it comes to United States,

US is actually a big source of trade and investment and jobs,

and yet they're not worried when Duterte attacked them and said,

let's end our lives.

Can you expand on that?

Okay, I'll go back yung point na to.

Kasi the biggest investor in ASEAN,

FDIs, is the United States, right?

It's not China.

So if we are concerned,

yung argument that we should be nice to countries

that have economic leverage over us,

why doesn't that apply toward the United States?

The United States is a source of many high-paying,

high-quality jobs here in the Philippines.

A lot of itong mga multinational companies

ng BPO industry,

which is one of the biggest,

high-tech sectors in the Philippine economy,

these are American companies.

And yet, we weren't worried when,

during the Duterte administration,

Duterte was flat out making very ridiculous statements like,

it's the Philippines, Russia, and China against the world.

We are turning away from the United States.

Kung ikaw talaga, you love the Philippines,

and you want us to have good relations

with all of our important economic partners,

then why is it that they are not calling for,

or that kind of restraint

when it comes to the U.S. or to Japan?

Parang hindi eh.

And in fact, it is even the opposite.

Not only don't they care about it,

they will actively agitate against the United States.

Talagang, diba,

that is really what a lot of the Duterte supporters,

frankly, the Duterte supporters right now are doing.

Talagang very anti-U.S.

But my point is,

what benefit does it give the Philippines

when you do that?

Diba?

So,

And that's where my point comes in.

Maybe,

maybe,

they're indirectly saying that,

well, U.S. is a democracy.

I mean, of course,

we can have a debate about horrible interventions.

I'm saying,

because U.S. is a democracy,

they're willing to tolerate pushback by the Philippines.

But the other one is a dictatorship.

So, like a gangster,

if you don't follow them,

there's going to be consequences, my friend.

You know what I'm saying?

Like, you know what I'm saying?

So, they're actually,

they're actually

contributing to otherization of China.

I mean, Duterte also kept on doing that.

Oh,

if we assert our West Philippine Sea,

they will go to war to us.

And you mga Chinese, like,

no, we're not like that.

We're not going to invade you for disagreement.

We have disagreement with Vietnam.

We have both.

I mean,

if we're being realistic about it,

I give a bad name to China,

these propagandist people.

If we're being realistic about it,

you showed the graph,

the parang agnostic nga to geopolitical situation,

yung economic footprint ng China

with the Philippines,

yung bilateral trade natin.

I think,

respetuhin naman natin yung Philippines na,

the reason why Chinese businesses

do business,

here in the Philippines,

is because there's money to be made.

Right?

There is an economic logic to that.

And that economic logic

is independent

ng policy ng administration.

It's not as if

China is only investing in the Philippines

because the Duterte family

has good relations with them.

That is really,

that's a preposterous,

that's a preposterous argument

that they're only investing here

if they have good relations with,

with the current president.

Ganun ka-importante

ang presidente ng Pilipinas,

that the market will move

with the president.

I don't think so.

That's very unlikely.

That's what Marcos says, right?

I need to travel around the world,

sell the country,

and then bumaba pa yung FDI

after all his Magellan Juniors.

That's another topic.

No, but that's my point, eh.

Yun ang unit team nila,

na both of them

have this myth of the great.

They're going there

and moving global markets.

Well, guess what?

It's a scam.

It doesn't work that way.

I think,

you know,

I advise Wall Street hedge funds,

whatever, right?

They're not idiots.

They have their own restrictions.

They talk to people like me

who know what's happening.

You think they're gonna

listen to a speech

by BBM and Digong

and make this...

You think Chinese businessmen

are just gonna listen

to some incoherent speech

by Digong

and decide they're gonna go...

It doesn't work that way.

It's far more complicated.

Let's give...

Let's respect the businessmen.

They're not idiots.

They're smart people.

Last point.

Sorry, if ever lang nawala.

You were saying,

on the part of Sarah Duterte,

her silence was something dangerous, right?

Because,

it may create some

perverse expectations by China.

And I said,

it may even risk

encouraging China

to interfere

in domestic affairs

because they may think,

I'm not saying that's the case,

but they may think

that they may have

their person here

in the Philippines

ahead of 2020 election.

They may get some ideas

na meron silang

Manchurian candidate dito

here in the Philippines,

which is a very valid problem.

Now,

going back to yung

nasabi ko before

we got cut off,

that

whatever Sarah Duterte

is doing right now,

it sets the tone

if eventually

she becomes president,

which is her goal anyway,

it sets the tone

for what kind of president

she's going to be.

Right?

On the one hand,

you have her

talking all about

very vocally

on itong

NTF-ELCAC

and talking about

the Afghan refugee issue

being requested

na i-accept

ng Philippines

by the United States.

So,

she has proven

na she can actually

talk about defense affairs

and she can extend

political capital

to make her

thoughts known

about the topic.

And that's why

the absence of

any of her positions

on the South China Sea issue

is damaging

to the Philippines,

frankly.

Ngayon,

there are two approaches

to this.

I would respect her

if she just kept

a dignified silence

on this issue.

She doesn't talk about

any security issue

out of deference

to the president.

Which is,

which was,

if you look at it,

to be fair,

during the last administration,

si Vice President

Lenny Robles,

had the same approach

when it comes to

Duterte's foreign policy.

Even if talagang

there were

at times talagang

statements like

the Philippines

will break ties

with the United States,

we moved to

terminate the

Visiting Forces Agreement

although hindi yun

nangyari in the end.

All of those are

very threatening things

and yet,

you never hear

VP Lenny

talk about

all of those things.

So, I think

yung ganong decorum

should be established

among vice presidents,

especially one that

would like to become

president in the future.

She should,

have that decorum.

Now, if she does

want to insist on

talking about

defense and security issues,

then please

talk about

things that matter

on a macro-level

perspective

sa Pilipinas.

Because right now,

what she's doing is

she's messaging China

that,

you know,

they can distract

the Philippines

with all these

domestic political disputes

and they can,

so that the country

can care less

about

the West-Philippine Sea issue.

That we are divided

amongst ourselves

and that's a very wrong

messaging

to China.

Because right now,

yung ginagawa niya

that she's being quiet

regardless

ng nangyayari

on the ground

na we know

water cannon na tayo

involving the AFP

chief of staff,

wala pa rin siyang statement,

you're actually sending

a message to China,

hey, China,

I have your back

regardless of what you do.

And that's a wrong message

to send to China.

In fact,

if you want to have

a genuinely independent

foreign policy,

what you should

message to China

is pit for tat.

I will behave

accordingly

in response

to how you behave

to me.

That is how

we should behave

at the world stage level.

We don't reciprocate

things na hindi naman

binibigay sa atin

ng China.

This is

yung ginagawa

ng mga Duterte

at the moment

to China

really is

yung etong

unreciprocated love.

That's really

what it is.

Cheesy as it sounds.

Hindi binabalik

ang pagmamahal

ng mga Duterte

sa China.

China has not been

reciprocated that

in investments,

obviously not

in military postures.

Let me correct you.

Maybe not reciprocated

to the nation

of the Philippines

but maybe

on certain other level

there was a reciprocation

we're not aware of.

I'm just saying.

Which is

all the more

a shame

if it's only

targeted.

And I would like

to address that point.

China likes to

tout that

na parang

we have made

many investments

in Mindanao,

etc.

Pero yun nga yung point eh.

Kaya nga,

tingnan mo itong

koalisyon ni Marcos na yun.

Many of whom are

Luzon people.

They don't

that don't benefit

from all these

China investments.

Kasi nga,

China is only

rewarding

yung mga

friendly voices

sa kanya

in the Philippines.

So,

because of that strategy,

very transactional

approach ng China,

it cannot win

the entire Philippines

over.

Right?

So,

what does it tell you

about the China policy

sa Philippines?

That China policy

in the Philippines

ultimately

requires

on divide and conquer.

Right?

Because China knows

that it cannot win

the public

as a whole.

Talagang yung mga

public opinion polls

repeatedly tell you

that

China is

an

target of

occupation.

Yeah.

So,

that already tells us

a lot about the nature

of Chinese economic

activity here

in the Philippines.

Ngayon,

we don't need to

go to war with them

and all these

really ridiculous

escalatory actions

that are being

suggested

by some people

that yun daw yung

mangyayari

if we stop

cooperating with

China and so forth.

You know,

that's not really

going to happen.

And I do think

that fundamentally,

if we have to

stand up to China,

we have to start

doing it now.

Because yung

credible deterrence,

it doesn't happen

overnight.

It's a result

of repeated

behavior.

And we have to

do it now.

And to be frank,

I think,

for example,

there were some

people who were

raising na

we should,

de-securitize

this issue,

right,

with China.

We should maintain

good relations with them.

Some of them

coming on to TV.

You know,

government officials

in the Philippines

are not stupid.

It's not that easy,

no?

Kung ganun siya kadali

that we just have

good relations with China

and suddenly,

all of our problems

with them

are going to be resolved,

then,

my goodness,

we should have

had peaceful relations

with China

since 2016.

But we haven't,

no?

2019 to 2021,

even Duterte

admitted that

there were some

security concerns

with China.

And what does it tell you,

no?

Just for the viewer.

Simply put,

yung problems natin

with China

are structural,

not cyclical.

Kasi kung cyclical

lang yan,

it can be resolved

by goodwill.

It can be resolved

by changing the policy

of the administration.

Eh, nakita na nga natin,

magpalit ka ng policy,

Duterte to Marcos,

Aquino to Duterte,

you still face

the same things,

harassment in the

West Philippine

Sea,

some dubious

Chinese innocent

passage malapit

sa Cebu,

sorry,

not Cebu,

sa Sulu,

and also in the

Benham Rise,

which was recently

claimed,

legally claimed

Philippine area

as well.

So,

what does that tell you?

I think we need to have

a very consistent

foreign policy

and it needs to be

a product of

concerted,

deliberate

defense and security

effort.

We cannot

turn away from

these problems.

Hindi ako agree dyan sa

narrative na yan na

you just need to be

friendly with them

somehow.

All of our problems

will be resolved.

That is a very

ridiculous approach

to foreign policy.

And the question is,

okay, operationally,

what are you saying?

Let's just give away

Second Thomas Shaw?

Let's just give,

like you push them,

what do you,

what are you

exactly saying?

Siying.

They cannot,

they cannot say that,

no, let's,

so don't give me

motherhood statement.

Motherhood statement

is not a national

security doctrine.

You know,

it's just like saying,

you know,

I mean,

like,

the kind of

enemy's friend

to all enemy

to none

is pang tourism.

That's the part

of tourism should,

you know,

that should,

that cannot be

a DFA slogan.

It's a tourism slogan.

All right.

Thank you so much,

Justin Bakisal

for the fantastic

discussion.

Really appreciate it

and looking forward

for the rest of our gang

to come together

and discuss more of this.

Salamat.

Salamat.

And good night.