A Pod Para Sa Bayan episode.

Video Transcript / Subtitles:( AI generated. About AI subtitles » )

* AI ("Artificial Intelligence") subtitles on Tagalog.com are generated using "Whisper" by OpenAI (the same company that created ChatGPT and DallE2). Results and accuracy may vary.
* The subtitles do include errors occasionally and should only be used as a tool to help with your listening practice.
* You can request this website to create a transcript for a video if one doesn't already exist by clicking the "Request AI Subtitles" button below a video. Transcribing usually takes 30-40% of the length of a video to complete if there are no other videos in the queue. For example, a 21 minute video will take 7-8 minutes to transcribe.
* Running a super fast cloud GPU server to do these transcriptions does cost money. If you have the desire and financial ability, consider becoming a patron to support these video transcriptions, and the other tools and apps built by Tagalog.com

Alright everyone, welcome back to POT Para sa Pilipinas. I'm joined by one of our co-conspirators, Justin Baquizal.

We hope to be joined by the rest of the gang in the coming days and weeks as we wrap up the year and discuss the biggest issues concerning Philippine foreign policy, West Philippine Sea among others.

But in the previous episode, we discussed the second Thomas Scholl-Ayungin Scholl situation and we tried to expose myths or disinformation about

essentially the whole gaslighting industry, cottage industry.

Oh, Philippines, we should not provoke China. It's our fault that we're asserting our own sovereign rights.

All of the kind of nonsense rhetoric out there by our good friends on the other side.

Okay, now, nevertheless, the two silences, the deafening silences over the past week are in no particular order.

One is from Vice President of the Republic, Sara Duterte, who has been saying everything on everything.

I mean, may stance siya on Gaza, may stance siya on peace process, may stance siya practically on anything under the sun.

Of course, deaf-edged secretary siya, marami siyang hanaas siya about many things.

But, you know, just silence, right?

Tuloy, nagkaroon ng memes, di ba, na nilagay nila yung greeting niya sa China during founding of Chinese Communist Party.

So, all of that.

All of the memes are coming out.

So, this is not a vice president that lacks opinion.

But for some reason, whenever something big happens, meaning China bullying the Philippines, they go completely quiet.

But the other silence, which is really frustrating to me, Justin, I just came back again from our good friends in Singapore.

I was there for the China-Stockholm forum.

We had another discussion there.

And, you know, again, maybe I ruffled a lot of feathers among our ASEAN friends.

And I said, you know, when it comes to ASEAN, 10 South China Sea, they're just...

North of useless, right?

Like, I really asked, what?

And everyone laughed except the guys from ASEAN there.

Like, I said, they're just north of useless.

Because, my goodness, they're saying nothing.

I mean, what are they waiting for?

The only thing I heard is from Prime Minister Lee of Singapore saying a few weeks ago about,

Hoy, Philippines, ingat lang kayo.

Ingat lang kayo dyan.

Parang, wow, thanks.

And natwist pa nga yun sa Pilipinas, di ba?

Kasi that became part of...

And yun nga, na-weaponize yun.

Again, as I said, and I'm being genuine here, I told to my Singaporean friends,

I know the Prime Minister meant well.

I don't think...

And that question came out of nowhere.

Because it was a new economy Bloomberg forum.

Let's not forget, this was about global economy, great power competition.

So, I think he just wanted to give a friendly, constructive advice.

The problem is, it was twisted.

And it was weaponized by mga malus...

I'm sorry.

Mga marites of this world na...

Biglang.

West Philippine Sea expert.

Biglang may maraming masabi.

Given their body of scholarship and expertise.

So, eto na.

So, let's first talk about ASEAN before we go to the Duterte's, our favorite topic.

I mean, what is your take on this, Justin?

Because one of the things that annoys me is they always say,

well, Philippines is really Western and all.

So, this is how they deal with it.

We in ASEAN, we're quiet and all.

I didn't know strategic cowardice is a non-Western Oriental.

I'm not sure about that.

Because Vietnam will have a say on that.

You know, India will have a say on that.

They're not quiet.

They call out China when funny things happen.

So, how do you see that, Justin?

Them occidentalizing the Philippines or trying to say,

ah, mga Filipino talaga na mga Asians yan, mga Latina yan, Americanized yan.

How do you feel about it?

Because, you know, you also deal with your ASEAN counterpart and friends.

Yeah.

Ako, mixed yung feelings ko about this.

On the one hand, you can really feel...

Yung pagiging unfair ng ASEAN na, for example, ASEAN will say,

non-interference is a very key principle of ASEAN.

And yet, a lot of the politicians in ASEAN,

well, they are very tactless about commenting that the Philippines is provoking China, right?

Or at least, alluding to that.

So, non-interference.

Pero pagdating sa Philippine defense and foreign policy,

wala silang pakialam if they are commenting on our defense and security posture.

So, I think there's a certain double standard there, no?

Na tayo nga, yung Philippines, we don't...

At least, at the government level, we don't call out our ASEAN neighbors for saying na

you lack the fortitude to stand up to China.

We don't say that in public.

Pero sila, you hear it from some of the Indonesian elections ngayon.

This is another topic na parang ang naging dating is don't provoke China too much.

Ang hindi nila naiintindihan, same with, as you mentioned, yung sa case ng Singapore.

Kapag naririnig yung domestic audience dito sa Pilipinas,

they are taking that as signaling from our neighbors that they are criticizing Philippine foreign policy.

So, that's the reality of it.

Even if they don't mean it like that.

So, that's the problem.

Merong asymmetry.

But on the other hand, ito, dito tayo medyo hindi aligned na opinion.

Kasi ako, I actually think na, I take it as a given that ASEAN is useless.

Hindi na lang north of useless.

I will really say it.

ASEAN is really useless when it comes to...

dealing with all these disputes with China.

Indonesia as the chair of ASEAN has already stated that

ASEAN is not the forum for territorial disputes and so forth.

Fine.

But, what that also means is that

yung lack of utility ng ASEAN to the Philippines,

that's precisely the point why we are turning to like-minded partners

na medyo mas may pakialam sa atin.

Japan, Australia, the United States, United Kingdom, and now France.

And anyway,

and India.

I mean, I said something like,

India has done more for the Philippines in the past year than ASEAN in the past decade.

In the West Philippines, of course.

Because India supported yung arbitral claim.

Yeah.

They call it West Philippine Sea.

They called out China earlier this month,

earlier this year, sorry,

about the bullying situation there.

And they're gonna give us BrahMos supersonic muscle system.

Name me one ASEAN country which has come close to giving us any of those three.

Right?

In recent memory.

Exactly.

So, ang dami talagang tulong ng India.

Pero ito kasi, yung ASEAN is a bit of a different beast

because a lot of the ASEAN states,

they're also arms importing countries, right?

So, for example, Indonesia also buys equipment from India,

from Russia, and so forth.

Same thing, Philippines, Vietnam as well.

Vietnam used to be very dependent on Russia for its weaponry.

So, in that respect,

many Southeast Asian states are just playing catch-up

when it comes to naval modernization, force projection, etc.

Kaya hindi rin nila tayo matulungan.

Which I understand.

Which I understand.

Which I understand.

So, in that respect, ako personally,

I take it as a given na wala naman talagang mahikita ang Pilipinas

with respect to ASEAN.

So, ako personally, I don't want to...

I want to advise the President,

huwag na natin i-waste yung political capital natin

trying to agitate our neighbors.

So, that's where we disagree.

Because for me, I think that it's worth engaging them.

Don't expect 10, expect 4, and I'm okay with 4.

What is 4?

You know, at least make a statement about

we expect, you know, in a shared community of nations,

we refrain from certain aggressive actions.

You don't even have to name China.

Just a statement by the Foreign Ministry of Malaysia,

a statement by farmers of Singapore, Indonesia.

It's a 4. It's not a 10.

Siguro, in that respect, bilaterally.

Bilaterally.

I mean, bilaterally now.

No, ASEAN 10, kaya nga sabi ko,

it's just north of uses, ASEAN 10.

On the South China Sea, not on everything,

just to be clear.

So, parang...

So, parang ASEAN minus approach.

This is ASEAN mini-lateral, ASEAN bilateral, exactly.

So, I think it would be nice if Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore,

this country, foreign ministries,

just release a statement.

Not, you know, like side.

Of course, they're not in a position to stand up to China militarily.

Just that.

Just like what India did,

which is a statement on

huwag niyo buli ng Pilipinas.

Yun lang naman ang hinihingi ko eh.

Kaya nga, Justin,

the irony is that,

in ASEAN,

literally, the headquarters of ASEAN,

Heydarian is known as the ASEAN basher, right?

He's the guy who goes to the Western countries and think tanks,

says things funny about ASEAN,

everyone loves that ASEAN, right?

You know, I'm sure they're gonna say also,

it's not like Heydarian is a very Southeast Asian name.

I'm sure they're gonna even make some slurs about me like that.

Now, I'm just being...

But the thing is, I'm brutally honest

because this is my karenyo brutal.

I love ASEAN.

I've lived in different regions of the world.

They have Game of Thrones,

in the Middle East.

We don't want to have that, right?

But nasasayangan ako

kasi napaka-mediocre ng ASEAN nowadays.

Precisely because of the type of leadership,

not because of the organization itself.

Because you know, I mean, during the Cold War period,

ASEAN was gangster, right?

It would side with Pol Pot against Vietnam, horrible thing.

But later on, it bullied Hun Sen

to form a democratic government before joining ASEAN.

Which is, which by the way,

para siguro din sa mga listeners,

which is actually a good point kasi merong attempt ngayon

to characterize na ang ASEAN fundamentally

is just a talking shop.

But if you look at it historically,

for example, yung pag-support nila

kay Pol Pot against Vietnam, for example,

that is a clear case of hard military balancing.

So it's not as if ASEAN as an institution

or at least the individual member states

are so into this hedging strategy

that they will never commit to hard military balancing.

They have committed to it before.

And I think, yun yung nga yung point eh.

Medyo nawala yung ganong kind,

yung kind of thinking within ASEAN, no?

Na parang medyo kinain siya within its own talking points.

Everybody's sort of doing diplomacy for diplomacy's sake.

It's a beauty pageant.

I'm sorry to say, again, I'm gonna be in trouble.

They made it into a Miss Congeniality Contest, right?

And this is the problem because the more ASEAN does not,

it's just like what I said about BBM.

When you're conflict avoidant, you invite conflict.

The more ASEAN doesn't draw the line,

the more it's inviting the superpowers

to impose their will,

the more you're risking another new Cold War

and the more you're gonna undermine regional security.

So I'll make exactly the same.

Kaya nga for me, Cariño Brutal,

I wanna call it out because I know ASEAN can do better.

But that's the thing, Justin.

Your opinion about ASEAN, whether it's worth it, guess what?

I'm hearing it from a lot of leading strategic thinkers in the Philippines.

Ironically, I'm actually the most ASEAN lover, I would say,

among Filipino strategic thinkers, you know?

And I'm not saying as a point of pride.

I'm just saying it factually.

Because very few Filipino experts even bother

to be emotional and passionate about ASEAN

and look at its history, Pol Pot, and you know.

I'm the only one who does it because the rest are saying,

it's not even worth it.

I'd rather invest in South Korea or Japan.

Siguro, just to explain that context siguro,

which is prevalent even within our own government, by the way, no?

Just in case some of the listeners are—

Of course, I mean, they're part of the strategic elite.

We're all part of the same circle.

This is a very prevalent view in government

for the simple reason na

it sort of pisses us off that, you know,

yung ASEAN right now, increasingly, over the last 10 years, no?

Hindi na nga—

Matatanggap mo pa eh, if ASEAN just stays quiet and is useless.

But right now, there's an attempt to shift as it's—

If ASEAN is not useless from the perspective of China.

Kasi China has used ASEAN and some of the member states,

for example, to delay yung code of conduct discussions,

to water down some of the communication—

So ASEAN is an enabler?

Yeah.

So hindi na nga lang siya useless.

To some extent, it's becoming an impediment to effective Philippine foreign policy.

Ngayon, I, myself included, I don't wanna pick this fight,

yung talagang, you know, it's not be confrontational with ASEAN and say,

you need to stop doing this, etc.

Ang akin na lang, okay, fine, I'm going to sidestep you.

I'm just gonna be diplomatic, we're gonna sidestep you,

insofar as our defense policy is concerned,

provided na kayo, ASEAN, should not be commenting on Philippine domestic policy.

At least for me, doon na tatapos yung discussion for me.

It's a very practical approach to the ASEAN.

I do understand also the criticism to that.

I'm just explaining why it's a prevailing mindset.

Yes, I mean, remember I said something about optics before.

Remember you tweeted something about back in the day, how annoying is China, you know?

Why is the US like begging China for meal-to-meal comms and all of that?

And, you know, and they're playing— I said, you know, this is about—

This is about optics.

This is about US projecting itself as the responsible actor.

And I think there's a value in that optics, because geopolitics is about optics too, right?

So for me, it's also optics, because, you know, I'm very active online.

So I follow a lot of pro-China people.

They say some— I mean, pro-China, not on just West Philippines.

Like, pro-China in general, because they hate America.

So your typical lefty, Frenchy people, right?

Sound stuff on some issues, but horrible stuff on Ukraine and Philippines.

In fact, I saw them.

Essentially, Ukrainizing Philippines.

Presenting the Philippines as the, you know, the edge of the knife of NATO pointing at

China, completely disrespecting our strategic agency, completely disregarding our sovereign

rights.

So for me, you don't want to give these idiots more ammunition, optics-wise, right?

Because if it's— Because again, if it's just France, Germany, UK, US, Australia, Japan

saying supporting thing about Philippines.

It's so easy for these idiots, right?

To twist it.

My point is,

that's why it matters

that a country like India

or something,

a country like Indonesia.

Do you get what I'm saying?

That's how things matter.

Kaya that's very important for me,

for out of them.

Iniisip ko siya

how it works in practice.

Kasi ako,

okay fine,

if we wanna push this ASEAN route,

I actually think,

I would bet

na ASEAN would more easily consent

to maritime patrol,

ASEAN-led maritime patrols

in the South China Sea

than to issue a statement

explicitly condemning China,

for example.

Isn't that what Indonesia tried

earlier this year?

Just in North Natuna Sea,

Cambodia vetoed it,

and the Philippines just,

I didn't join at all

the South Natuna Sea version.

Then maybe the approach

should be an ASEAN-minus approach.

So,

we don't really need ASEAN,

the entire institution,

but we just need to,

important ito,

I think I mentioned this

in one of the previous episodes,

important for us

to have a very balanced

defense partnership portfolio.

So, it would be very good

if we can have Indonesia,

Vietnam,

Malaysia,

Singapore on board.

The other ASEAN states,

honestly,

it's not a must-have for me.

Yeah, I agree with you on that.

Yeah, that's my point exactly.

Parang yung akin,

parang we can make,

we can try to make headway

with countries

that may be more predisposed

to support us.

So, I think that's a practical way

to address yung ganong line of thinking.

So, actually,

we're in agreement, right?

Because, you know,

we have to always distinguish

ASEAN as an organization

and ASEAN countries,

which are two different things.

I always say the parts

are bigger than the whole.

Like, again,

ASEAN 10,

practically useless

on South Tennessee,

but Indonesia, Philippines,

Malaysia, Philippines,

Vietnam, Philippines,

that could be very, very important, right?

And actually,

from what I know,

President Marcos Jr.

is going to have a state visit

to one of these key countries

in ASEAN soon.

So, we'll discuss that soon.

All right.

That will be a different topic.

Now,

let's go to the other omission here,

big omission,

big omission here.

Yeah, I mean,

you have VP Sara

barely saying anything

and then now you have

some of these oligarchs

openly coming out

and saying,

oh,

huwag natin ni masyadong

aning China.

I mean,

first of all,

like,

what are we losing again

from China?

Because China keeps on

trading with us anyway,

whether it's Aquino,

Duterte,

or if it's all about

high-quality investments,

where's the high-quality investment?

There was not there anyway.

So, I just don't see

what's the argument here.

And for me,

if these Philippines

becoming reliable

ally of the West

is bringing high-quality

semiconductor investments

from US,

from Taiwan,

whatever,

then I'll take it any day

and then later,

maybe we can talk to China

once they've made up their mind.

Because clearly,

they have not made up their mind

because they want the Philippines

to be just a giant Cambodia

like Hunsen's Cambodia.

And it's not.

I'm sorry,

it's not.

So, you have to wake up

to the reality

and that's why

we're doing what we're doing.

What's your take

on that angle?

I think when it comes to

itong

China,

I mean,

China,

I call it the China

blackmail argument

na they have

a big

economic leverage

over the Philippines.

Therefore,

we should moderate

our own

foreign policy.

And ako,

I always remind people,

if you look at

what's happening right now,

that is an imagined problem.

It is not an actualized problem.

Ang dami nagsasabi

that, you know,

China will retaliate

against the Philippines

economically.

But,

actually,

pag dinignan mo yung datos,

and someone actually

wrote this,

I think si Colin Coe

from Singapore

wrote this.

If you look at the trade data

na released ng

Philippine Statistics Authority,

yung trade natin with China

has actually remained

constant throughout

this 2023

even if

meron tayong tensions

with them

in the maritime

in the

in maritime zone.

So,

the idea that,

you know,

China will just

economically retaliate

every time we have tensions,

it's actually an argument

made by Filipinos

more than the Chinese.

And,

you know,

nakakahiya yun.

It's not just

it means that

Filipinos are doing

China's work for them.

Basically,

being propagandists.

They're the useful idiots,

yeah.

Yeah.

Essentially,

China doesn't even say it

in public that it will

economically coerce

the Philippines.

So, sino ang nagsasabi nun?

Yung mga propagandists

ng China dito sa Pilipinas.

They make that argument

regardless of the evidence

for it.

Now,

there has been

this Bloomberg article

about, you know,

Filipino business community

expressing fears

that they may be affected

by the tensions

or market jitters.

Okay,

I understand with that sentiment

but as it stands,

where is the actual

economic harm

being done to them?

The article didn't even cite

exact mechanisms

by which they are being

coerced or harmed

by these tensions.

So, as it stands,

concerned sila

about Philippine-China tensions,

yes, everybody is concerned

about it.

But if you're talking about

the economic repercussions,

you show me the numbers,

that there's an actual

economic repercussion to this

before you go on public

scaring people away

that, you know,

we are one breath away

from full economic sabotage

by China, right?

So, show me the evidence

for that.

Now, on the part

ng omission,

ito important,

yung omission

ni Vice President Sara

in responding to the

West Philippine Sea,

I do think it's a very big

mistake on her part

kasi yung omission,

kunyari ha,

yung, yung, yung,

you put the omission niya

na hindi siya nagsasalita

on the West Philippine Sea,

you put that omission

in context, no?

Nagsasalita siya about

itong NTF-ELCAC,

nagsasalita siya about

itong kay Lorraine Badoy

SMNI issue.

So, she does have the time,

she is willing to spend

the political capital

to publicly disagree

with the Marcos administration,

but she doesn't have,

she doesn't want

to spend the political capital

to call out China

for its behavior.

And for me,

let's assume,

for the sake of argument,

that she's going to be

president in 2028,

yung ginagawa niya ngayon

sets her administration

in the future

on a bad footing

because China's,

ang mini-message niya sa China is

China, I have your back.

Parang through thick or thin,

regardless of what you're doing

on the ground,

I'm not gonna lift a finger to...

Or you're inviting China

to interfere in the upcoming elections

because they know

they may have a reliable friend.

So,

if you look at it,

talagang it's not a good,

it's not a good,

it doesn't have a good impact

on the Philippines

as a country.

I'm gonna throw aside

the politics, whatever,

whether or not you agree with her,

but what we can all say

is that she should,

she should be speaking

about this issue

if at the end of the day,

meron naman pala siyang effort

to make statements

on various issues.

Ideally,

and some people have pointed this out,

why do,

we want Sarah Duterte

to talk about foreign policy

when the chief architect

of foreign policy

is the president

and she should respect it?

Pero yun na nga,

yung context na kasi,

nakakapagsalita siya

on other defense issues.

She spoke about

the Afghan refugee issue

with the Americans.

She spoke about NTF-ELCAC.

So, she can talk about

security issues.

She's just not talking about

China disputes.

So, that is where

the asymmetry lies.

Now,

if she's quiet on everything,

talagang she has this

dignified silence,

she's allowing the presidency

to conduct its policy

without worrying that

she might have

a different opinion,

then that's gonna be fine

with me as well.

Giving the incumbent

due respect

to conduct defense affairs,

which is fine.

Which,

when you come to think about it,

during the Duterte administration,

to be fair to Lenny Robredo,

Lenny Robredo didn't actually

criticize Duterte so much

on itong foreign policy niya

with China.

The Liberal Party as a whole,

yes,

we have Senator Rizzo Antiveros

as well,

but Robredo as Vice President

actually allowed Duterte

to conduct

that foreign policy,

I'll be very frank,

that foreign policy coup,

na bago yung relations

with China.

Even if,

objectively,

talagang it was bad

for Philippine national interest.

She kept her dignified silence

for that.

So, I do think also that

the Vice President should

at least

accord,

the incumbent administration

that courtesy as well.

Important one.

Actually, I was just looking

at the graphs here

of the trade

between Philippines and China.

Very consistently,

it has increased

throughout the days.

I mean,

probably can even share it here

for people to see.

I was just about to post it

on Twitter.

I think yung economic

sabotage argument na yan,

I think some people

omit the broader context

ng Philippine economic relations.

Ang number one,

foreign direct investment

of ASEAN as a region

is the United States.

So, kung ang argument mo

is that you should not

pick fights with countries

that have economic leverage

over our country

and our neighbors here,

then why aren't they

willing to make that argument

to make peace with the US?

In fact,

they're doing the entire opposite.

Not only are they willing

to ignore that,