00:18.4
right-hand man of the President
00:20.3
if not the left-hand man
00:21.3
he said something like
00:23.3
they're gonna work again on constitutional change
00:26.3
and the way I see it is
00:27.7
well, I mean, if papalitan nila
00:30.6
yung constitution after 2025
00:32.1
if they do very well in 2025
00:33.8
dudurugin nila yung kabila
00:35.3
then there'll be a position to change the constitution
00:37.6
then, hindi na makabalik yung mga Dutertes
00:40.5
because I keep on hearing
00:41.8
yung mga supporters ni Duterte and Sara
00:45.8
2028, yung mga ganun sila
00:49.2
2028 is not just waiting to happen
00:52.2
you know, things could change, right?
00:54.2
So, Ronald, in that context
00:56.4
how do you look at it? I mean
00:57.7
do you think that there's a good chance
01:01.9
to just, you know
01:02.8
go for preemptive strike
01:04.6
like, we're not even gonna give you a chance to come back
01:07.1
we're just gonna engineer constitutional change
01:09.6
I don't know, Martin will be the Prime Minister
01:11.7
BBM will be the ceremonial president
01:15.2
and then, you give Consuelo everyone right and left
01:18.0
to keep the thing together
01:19.0
and that's why 2025 elections will be extremely important
01:21.9
because it could change the whole
01:23.8
constitutional architecture of the Philippines
01:25.5
if they get what they want
01:27.7
now, interestingly, of course
01:33.2
sumasakay siya ulit dito sa issue ng constitutional change
01:35.9
but I'm not sure he's aware
01:37.1
of the risk for his side
01:39.0
I don't think he's seeing what's happening here
01:42.4
but anyway, he's being a useful friend now
01:44.7
for Martin Rivaldo
01:46.5
because he's still pushing for constitutional change
01:49.2
even if this may prevent
01:50.7
his friends from coming back to power anytime soon
01:54.1
How do you see this, Ronald?
01:56.2
Well, kung titigin muna natin yung
01:57.6
Yung historical at political context, Richard, this is the first time in one and a half years ay may dalawang efforts to change the constitution. At dalawang klaseng modalities. Last year it was constitutional convention at ngayon it's people's initiative. So medyo historic yan. That has never happened before.
02:21.7
Di kalawa, makikita rin natin yung pagbabago sa posisyon ng presidente. Last year, parang hindi niya sineseryoso yung CONCON. Sabi niya wrong timing. Ngayon, medyo open siya.
02:38.5
Medyo open siya. Ang medyo sarado pa rin, to a great extent, yung Senado. Bagamat, merong softening si Senate President Subiri. Sinasabi niya kailangan pang pag-aralang maigi at tignan niyo mga surveys.
02:51.7
Kung ito ba ay may suporta ng tao. So medyo nagbabalancing act si Senate President Subiri. So may ganun klaseng political changes dito sa conduct ng presidente vis-a-vis itong charter changes na ito.
03:10.6
Pero people's initiative could be harder. Dahil kukuha ka ng signature at least 3% in all congressional districts.
03:21.7
Tapos 12% nationwide. Tapos pagbobotohan pa rin yan. Later on. So hindi ko sigurado kung they have enough time. Although, ngayon yung last possibility na magkaroon ka ng charter change. After the midterms, mahihirapan na.
03:40.3
Pero kailangan nilang bilisan. Next year kasi is almost an election year. People will be starting to campaign. October, filing ng candidacy.
03:51.7
Meron ng election ban. So alignment, realignment will begin to happen earlier. Tapos may mga political upheavals na pwede yung mangyari.
04:01.0
Like darat papasok ba ang ICC sa second quarter next year? Magsya sharpest line ba yung mga Duterte against the Marcoses? Ngayon kasi medyo very sharp na yung kanilang ban. Will it become sharper? Will there be destabilization initiatives?
04:19.0
Habang nangyayari itong cha-cha, habang nangyayari itong campaign period or unofficial campaign period.
04:30.2
Dahil just last week, nagtatawag na ng people power sa Dabao. Ang Iglesia ni Cristo ba sasama? Which side sila sasama? Tapos ngayon na-agitate yung ilang mga sundalo at kapudisan dahil sa usapin ng peace talk.
04:49.0
So ang daming posibleng mangyari na pwede nating isummarize sa ating year ender with Leloy. Pero yan yung nakaka-complicated dito sa cha-cha.
05:00.6
It's not happening in a vacuum. It's happening with huge conversion of events. With intense convergence of political dynamics. Habang nangyayari ito.
05:14.2
Kaya kahit medyo tama yung timing.
05:19.0
Last na timing na ito for any possibility of a charter change. It is happening in a very intense, toxic political landscape.
05:32.8
We're looking at scenarios here. I think at least what they're saying is that they're signaling that push comes to shove. Papalitan nila nila yung constitution come what may to prevent the Duterte's comeback.
05:46.4
I mean, if they're backing on coming back 2028, there is that nuclear option. And then there's a more moderate, inclusive way of doing it, as you said. But that has its own logistical and timing complications, right?
05:59.0
And, you know, debatable kung kaya nila pull off yung the non-nuclear version. Let's say tactical nuclear version niya, diba? Sorry for those metaphors. No, because this could be really consequential. You're blowing up the whole system and putting something new there, diba?
06:14.2
And then, of course,
06:16.4
there's a possibility na, you know,
06:19.3
this actually could alienate some of the senators or, you know, make some people scared. BBM might become too strong. I think that scenario is not very likely now, but that could be the case. Not BBM per se, but it's viewed like, oh, Martin Romualdo's, right? He's making the most out of the BBM moment. He's pushing for his own agenda. That could create a pushback, particularly in the Senate, right? It's a scenario we're not talking about it yet because everyone is focused on the Duterte's.
06:45.0
But I think once the Duterte's become quite weak, then everyone's gonna ask, what about the BBM camp, especially his right-hand man who's beginning to become very, very powerful and perhaps the most powerful speaker of the house in recent memory, as things stand. Oh, of course, Philippines, House of Cards, you know, anything can change. But now let's go to the substance of the argument.
07:04.4
Because so far, ang ginawa lang natin is diniscuss lang natin yung not necessarily the merits and the merits. We just discussed the timing, the logistics, the political logic to it. But in terms of merits,
07:15.0
So, Senator de Lima actually came out with a statement. She's now the spokesman of the Liberal Party. And she has been very clear na hindi sila sang-ayon sa constitutional change. So, this is one area perhaps that you could see a difference of opinion between Liberal opposition and the BBM camp, right? Aside from the Maharlika Fund, among others.
07:35.9
So, eto, hindi nasasaing ang charter change. This is a statement of the Liberal Party on the proposed charter change.
07:45.0
Bato ang maraming Pilipino. Bakit charter change ang niluluto ng gobyerno? So, in short, this is just an unnecessary distraction. We should focus on bread and butter issue. And yeah, we saw it in all surveys, at least available surveys throughout the years, na wala talagang clamor for charter change.
08:01.5
At marami mga suspicious sa charter change, including BBM. I mean, BBM himself admitted that, you know, Marcos doing a charter change is not necessarily a good kind of, like in one sentence, charter change under Ferdinand Marcos.
08:15.0
It's not the most reassuring sentence out there, right? So, how do you look at this issue from the Merit's point of view?
08:23.6
Well, una, from one aspect, nabanggit nga ni Senator Laila de Lima, merong mga mas pressing problems yung bansa.
08:33.4
Kaya mo bang ipaliwanag in a new political narrative na yung charter change will solve part of these problems?
08:41.7
For now, parang walang ganong klaseng paliwanag.
08:45.0
Yun yung isang kailangan sagutin ng mga proponents ng charter change.
08:51.4
Meron ba itong magiging pagbabago sa presyo ng isang kilo ng bigas?
08:55.7
Makakaroon ba ito ng efekto dun sa price ng kuryente, which is the most expensive in the region?
09:02.4
Ito ba ay makakabawa sa mga warlords sa ating system?
09:07.2
So, yan yung mga ilang mga kailangan nilang ayusin.
09:10.8
Kasama dyan, yung sinasabi na, does it have political or popular support?
09:17.0
Dahil karamihan naman ng mga tao, katulad ng karamihan ng mga kongresista, hindi naman nababasa yung konstitusyon.
09:26.2
Ikalawa ay, ano ba yung gusto mong ipropose?
09:30.3
Ito ba ay mature enough para baguhin yung political system?
09:36.2
Dahil kahit ang paliwanag kasi ay, ang babaguhin lang ay yung economic provision.
09:40.8
Alam naman ng lahat, para magkaroon niya ng supporta, kailangang maibigay ka sa mga politiko.
09:50.3
Ano yung bibigay mo? Lifting of term limits.
09:53.5
Anong bibigay mo para supportahan nila yan?
10:00.2
So, yun yung quid pro quo na pwedeng mangyari.
10:02.7
At that quid pro quo can be politically heavy para sa isang political narrative.
10:10.8
Ikalawa, ano ba yung gusto mong ipropose yung POSTIAN PACT?
10:16.8
At yan, makikita mo dun sa transitory provisions ng isang papaltala.
10:22.8
Paano? Pandora's box yan eh.
10:23.8
Pag binuksan mo yan, kahit sabihin mo, hindi, maliit lang na butas.
10:27.8
Maliit lang na butas.
10:28.8
Papalabasin lang natin yung economic provisions.
10:30.8
Pag bukas niyan, lahat ng laman ng Pandora's box lalabas na yan.
10:35.8
Kaya, yun yung mahalaga.
10:38.8
Alam natin, napupunta yan.
10:40.8
Sa possible na pagbabago ng political system.
10:45.8
Malamang, ang itutulak yan ay parliamentary.
10:49.8
Pwedeng dagdagan ng federal para supportahan na ng mga LGUs,
10:54.8
ng mga local government units.
10:57.8
Pero ayaw ni Presidente Marcos ng greater devolution of power.
11:01.8
Ang tingin ni Presidente Marcos, sobrang dami na eh.
11:04.8
Especially with the Mandanas Law.
11:06.8
Ganun yung kanyang perspective.
11:08.8
Sobrang dami na ng power yung central government.
11:11.8
Sobrang dami na ng devolution, decentralization at sharing of resources and power.
11:17.8
So, I doubt kung yan ay magiging motibo for the President to push for it na federal.
11:24.8
Parliamentary, yes.
11:26.8
Sabi mo nga kanina, pwedeng magkaroon ka ng head of state, the President,
11:32.8
and the head of government, the Prime Minister.
11:34.8
Yun yung kung tatanggalin mo ang term limits.
11:37.8
So, mahalaga yung modelo.
11:39.8
Paano nung last government, tinanong si Duterte,
11:42.8
anong modelo mo for the federal system?
11:45.8
Ang sabi niya, the French model.
11:48.8
May maliit lang naman na problema dahil hindi naman federal model yung French system.
11:54.8
Kaya, Singapore nga eh, na federal model.
11:58.8
So, wait lang, yung name book namin dyan ng kaibigan namin.
12:03.8
So, hindi namin mo, ano bang model?
12:08.8
At panghuli, what are the requirements for a shift on your system?
12:12.8
Because if you do it overnight, you will be federating warlordism,
12:17.8
federating inequality, federating poverty,
12:21.8
federating all the ills of the previous system you are trying to change.
12:28.8
Ako, okay ako, parliamentary.
12:30.8
Pero handa ba tayo?
12:32.8
Meron ba tayong real political parties?
12:34.8
Meron ba tayong maayos na party financing?
12:37.8
Which was a requirement for other systems to shift to a parliamentary system.
12:43.8
But Ronald, the pushback will be,
12:45.8
chicken and egg yan eh, like how are you going to fix the party system
12:48.8
if you do not have a political system that encourages strong parties?
12:52.8
If we shift to parliamentary, umayos na kayo.
12:56.8
Eventually, they're going to be forced to...
12:58.8
Chicken and egg yan eh, chicken and egg debate yan eh.
13:01.8
Anong kailangan mauna?
13:02.8
Yung reforms or yung change ng system?
13:06.8
It could be both.
13:08.8
Kailangan mo rin ng minimum reforms para maging at least viable yung system.
13:14.8
Pero at the same time, tama yung sinasabi mo,
13:16.8
hindi naman magkakaroon ng major or comprehensive reforms habang ganito yung sistema.
13:23.8
So, it could be both. Ano yung minimum?
13:26.8
Ano yung system na less ideal for these minimum reforms?
13:31.8
Yung complexion, hindi ko sigurado.
13:33.8
Yan ang trabaho ng mga katulad ni Richard Haidarian,
13:36.8
Leloy Claudio, Julay T. Hankey.
13:39.8
Hindi yan para sa mga Ronald Llamas eh.
13:41.8
Kasi si Ronald Llamas, siya ingin na negotiate sa mga politika.
13:46.8
Para yan doon sa mga iniimbitas sa mga Christmas parties.
13:51.8
Hindi doon sa mga katulad ng Ronald na hindi iniimbitas sa Christmas party.
13:55.8
Para yan doon sa mga political scientists talaga.
13:58.8
Ayan na, mga hugot line.
14:01.8
Dapat meron na yung hugots eh. Meron na yun.
14:04.8
Of course, I'm gonna release shorts and videos, explainers on this.
14:09.8
I mean, first, clamor, questionable yan.
14:11.8
Second, menu costs.
14:13.8
Kala na tayo mag-transition.
14:15.8
By some accounts, it could cost us hundreds of billions of pesos.
14:19.8
Hindi ito yung libra lang overnight.
14:22.8
Number three, Austrian pack or Trojan horse scenario na.
14:27.8
But in the meantime, you did a lot of mumbo-jumbo para the politikos have a bite.
14:31.8
Number four, is it even necessary if you want constitutional change?
14:35.8
Pwede mo naman at least implement yung mga new economic laws that were passed under the previous Congress but now IRR.
14:45.8
So I can go on and on about this.
14:47.8
Number five, I mean, there's a lot of evidence to suggest that there's a very weak causal link between form of government and the political outcome.
14:55.8
So let's say Turkey, France, and South Korea, very similar.
14:58.8
Strong president.
14:59.8
For quite some time.
15:00.8
And then, of course, we saw in the case of Turkey, binabo yun yung nangisipan doon.
15:05.8
I'm sorry, well, not Bob.
15:06.8
He adulterated the system.
15:08.8
And then, in the case of South Korea and France, we see similar systems but totally different trajectory.
15:13.8
Korea is moving in a more, I would say, aggressive direction.
15:16.8
France, sabog pa rin.
15:18.8
So there's a very weak causal link.
15:21.8
And then, we see federal versus parliamentary, which is a whole different basket of...
15:25.8
Pero big R, natatanongin kita.
15:27.8
All things constant.
15:29.8
All things constant.
15:31.8
Ano ang pipiliin mong system?
15:34.8
Halimbawa, kung ikaw ang masusunod, ano yung tingin mo na medyo favorable sa Pilipinas na political system?
15:42.8
Even if it isn't perfect.
15:43.8
I'm open to the idea of parliamentary but not federalism.
15:46.8
But I don't like you overselling that idea.
15:49.8
And then, use that as a basis to do also mga mojombo fos niyan pa.
15:52.8
Kasi yan yung problema.
15:53.8
You say, oh, pag parliamentary tayo, maging Switzerland tayo.
15:56.8
Well, may parliament din ng Zimbabwe.
15:58.8
I can give you, for every Switzerland, I'll give you 10 Zimbabwe and I don't know.
16:04.8
You want to talk about federalism of Germany?
16:06.8
Well, I can talk about federalism in Brazil or Nigeria or Iraq.
16:10.8
Or I can talk about those countries.
16:12.8
Why we're all talking about political Switzerland?
16:15.8
Bakit mo sinasabi, Ronald?
16:17.8
Ito siguro nakabutan mo.
16:18.8
May player dati na si Sean Marion sa NBA.
16:21.8
Mga panahon ni Kobe Bryant yan mga 15 years ago.
16:23.8
Ganyan siya mag-shoot, Ronald.
16:25.8
Hindi siya mag-shoot ng ganun.
16:26.8
So hindi mo siya matapalan.
16:27.8
Ganyan siya mag-shoot.
16:29.8
So it's like saying, ikaw ang magiging Michael Jordan or Sean Marion kung ginaya mo lang yung shooting nila.
16:34.8
Ay, Jordan na ako.
16:35.8
When you're forgetting, there's so many things that when you're becoming Michael Jordan.
16:40.8
Parang sabi nung isa,
16:41.8
Sir, parang sinabi mo, nilabas mo yung dila mo pag nag-shoot ka sa Jordan ka na.
16:45.8
Like, you know, it's that ridiculous to say na pag kinopy lang natin yung ginawa sa Switzerland, maging Switzerland na tayo.
16:52.8
So I'm just saying, there are levels of Michael, I mean, there are levels of ridiculousness to this.
16:57.8
Nalala ko, Richard, naimbit na ako sa Senate mga two decades ago para magbigay ng input about this federal system.
17:05.8
They were talking about the German model.
17:08.8
Because the German model is exactly not a model.
17:11.8
Because the German model ay pwede lang sa Germany.
17:16.8
Yung kanilang, diba?
17:20.8
Unang-una, Germany became a nation much later.
17:25.8
At yung reflection ng kanilang political system, federal and parliamentary,
17:29.8
ay reflection nung kanilang kingdoms, no?
17:34.8
Separate kingdoms before they became a nation.
17:38.8
So ang hirap gayahin siya as sa model eh.
17:41.8
Yung isang bahagi ng kanilang parliament are basically local government units eh.
17:46.8
Yung isang bahagi is basically 100% party lists.
17:50.8
Eh sa atin, tinatawa na ng party list.
17:53.8
hindi ko maintindihan yung Senate hearing na tinitignan yung Germany as a model.
17:59.8
Kahit ano pa sa mayaman ng bansa dyan.
18:03.8
Ang mayaman dyan, sweter na.
18:05.8
Pipilitin na lang.
18:10.8
Kailangan pa dyan ng mga education,
18:14.8
ng mga political scientist katulad ni Leloy Claudio,
18:17.8
Richard Heydarian,
18:22.8
Yan ang mga magagaling dyan.
18:24.8
Sa mga ganyang klaseng mga models.
18:29.8
Models na non-models.
18:35.8
Don't worry mga kameta, mga ka-R&R.
18:38.8
Babalikan ko yung issue na yan as it gets hot again.
18:40.8
Ito ngayon medyo lausan na yata yung issue.
18:43.8
point ko lang Ronald,
18:44.8
I found the issue interesting
18:47.8
when it came from Martin Romualdez.
18:49.8
Because I think it was a subtle way of saying,
18:50.8
if the Dutertes are banking on
18:52.8
coming back with vengeance in 2028,
18:55.8
Make sure there'll be no 2028 elections, right?
18:58.8
By completely changing the system, right?
19:00.8
But not presidential.
19:02.8
So hindi mo siya nakitang interesting
19:04.8
dahil lang galing siya kay Robin Padilla?
19:07.8
Marami kasi ibang mas interesting.
19:09.8
Yung ba yung naisin mo kay Huatid, no?
19:11.8
Mas marami kasing interesting kay Robin.
19:13.8
Yung mga West Philippines senior.
19:16.8
Ang like yata ni Trilliana sa isang video natin.
19:19.8
Nakita ko sa atin.
19:21.8
Pagdating sa ICC, biglang sila, no?
19:26.8
Pagdating sa West Philippines,
19:27.8
ay, intindi natin ng China.
19:29.8
Huwag natin improve ng China.
19:31.8
Sabi ko, ibang klase talagang selective outreach.
19:33.8
On that note, thank you very much, Senator.
19:36.8
Sir Ronald Llamas.
19:38.8
Baka mamaya interview pa natin si Robin Lut.
19:44.8
On that note, thank you very much, sir.
19:47.8
And on next episode,
19:48.8
pag-uusapan naman natin ang pinakaminamahal ng tatay ng Davao,
19:53.8
si Tatay Digong at kanyang tao na suspended.
19:57.8
So, pag-uusapan natin yan.
19:58.8
Thank you very much, sir.
