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00:00.0
All right, everyone. Welcome back dito sa pre-year-ender analysis natin. Kasama dyan yung pag-suspenda ng MTRCV ng show ni Tatay Digong.
00:13.6
Sir Ronald, in your long experience in politics, is this the first time that an ex-president has been suspended for anything? I mean, ibang klase talaga ito. What's happening?
00:25.0
Well, baliban sa karma, mukhang yung universe is going against the ex-president. Dahil may kaso siya ng grave threats labang kay Congresswoman Castro.
00:37.7
Meron siyang kaso sa ICC na pwedeng lumabas yung international warrant next year. Tapos ngayon, nasuspend siya.
00:46.8
Yung ganyang trivial na kaso ay tinatamaan pa siya. Kaya I'm sure may susunod pa ng mga kaso.
00:55.0
Hindi pa magagaling kay Richard Hedarian o kay Ronald Llamas pero tingin ko marami yung magsasampas sa kanila.
01:05.3
Tapos yung kanyang anak ay meron din kaso sa Supreme Court na finile yung dalawang grupo.
01:14.1
Kaya mukhang the universe is not aligning in favor of the ex-president and his cohorts.
01:23.2
Ito ay isa lang sa mga lakas.
01:25.0
Pero isang kinakagalit niya ay hindi lang itong mga kasong ito. Isang kinakagalit niya ay yung kanyang mga kalaban ay mukhang tawag nila ay kinakausap ng gobyerno for a peace process.
01:42.9
Galit na galit siya sa mga yan. Pinapaubos na yan. Sabi niya, uubusin niya. Just a few months back, sabi niya, dapat gamitin ang intelligence fund ng kanyang anak para patayin yung mga yan.
01:55.0
So ikalawa, yung tingin niyang mortal enemy niya na parehas niyang Bedista, parehas niya sa San Beda, ay nakapag-bail.
02:06.6
At ngayon ay nagsasalita na bilang isang political leader na may political future. Kaya galit na galit din siya dyan.
02:18.5
Kung yung isa pa niyang mortal enemy, si Sanitre Llanes.
02:25.0
Kaya magkakaroon ng mortal na enemy neto.
02:28.3
Na sabi ni Matubato, siya ay in-assign para ambushin, para ipatayin si Senator Llanes na yan upon the order of somebody very high in the government.
02:47.1
So hindi lang ito usapin ng mga kaso laban sa kanila.
02:53.1
Hindi lang ito usapin ng mga mortal.
02:55.0
Hindi lang ito usapin ng mga mortal enemy na mukhang hindi lamang napapalaya kung hindi nabibigyan ng mga political platform in the present administration.
03:09.6
Kung hindi, yung pinakamalaking threat sa kanila is more existential.
03:15.8
Dahil kung matuloy yung ICC, kung matutuloy, yung plano nila to bidan yung opposition ay baka mahirapan.
03:25.0
Lalo na kung lahat sila ay kukunin.
03:29.1
Pero I doubt kung lahat ay pipick upin ng ICC even kung lumabas na international warrant.
03:36.4
Usually kasi yung ICC nagpo-focus lang sila sa kaunting tao para ma-strengthen yung case nila.
03:43.1
Halimbawa, Milosevic.
03:44.6
Hindi mo naman huhulihin lahat ng generals ni Milosevic na genocide.
03:50.4
You get two or three...
03:56.2
Kaya potential na ganoon silang mangyari dito sa EJK cases sa Pilipinas.
04:02.3
Yung The Bow Death Squad.
04:04.1
Ang usapin, sino yung ringleaders na yan?
04:07.0
Sino ang isasama, sino ang hindi isasama?
04:09.9
Kaya dapat tignan natin itong usapin ng SMNI in relation to other events.
04:18.2
Yun yung gusto ko lang ipakita.
04:24.4
Hindi naman plotting.
04:27.3
Yung universe naman, hindi naman platter.
04:30.4
The universe going against the Dutertes.
04:34.1
More like the walls are closing in.
04:36.6
I think more like that.
04:39.0
Tapos na kasi yung writing on the wall.
04:41.5
O, medyo palitan na natin yung metaphor.
04:44.0
Patagal na yung writing.
04:45.2
Ngayon, the wall itself is...
04:47.2
Yung wall na yung gumuguhu sa kanila.
04:49.8
Gumuguhu ngayon yung wall.
04:50.8
May mga lumilitaw na words.
04:54.4
I don't know what to say.
04:56.4
Parang gising itong si Tatay Digong.
04:58.8
Pero, don't you think this is a...
05:02.0
Or maybe, I don't know.
05:03.3
Hindi ba parang tumahimik ng konti si Digong?
05:05.8
Or pinatahimik na lang siguro?
05:09.1
Do you think he has any ability left to recalibrate at this point in time?
05:13.9
To avoid the war?
05:16.0
Sa mundo kasi namin.
05:17.6
Pag kami natatahimik, ibig sabihin meron kaming ginagawa.
05:21.7
Sa mundo ng mga plotters.
05:24.7
Quiet dog is the thing.
05:25.9
Pag kami ay natahimik, mas delikado kami.
05:28.6
Kaya, katulad ito, may iingay tayong dalawa.
05:31.0
Hindi tayo delikado.
05:32.6
Dahil may iingay lang tayo.
05:34.8
Pero yung mga tahimik, delikado yung mga yan.
05:38.0
Baka meron na dyan mamaya ng mga troop movements, destabilization.
05:44.0
Baka meron na dyan mga sumasabog sa mga Mindanao State University.
05:49.6
Hindi ko sinasabi na related yun dito.
05:52.3
Baka may mga ganyan.
05:53.5
May mga wagdadog, mga deadly occurrences.
06:00.6
Kaya, delikado yung mga tahimik.
06:04.2
Lalo na yung tipo ni Digong, tingin ko hindi papahuli ng buhay.
06:11.4
Yan yung pag nakasandal sa pader yan, delikado yan.
06:14.7
So gagawin niya ang lahat para hindi siya makulong.
06:19.4
Gagawin niya ang lahat.
06:22.5
Para hindi siya gumuho.
06:25.7
Nakakatakot naman yan.
06:27.3
I mean, mafia bosses were brought down in New York by Giuliani and all in a much more peaceful way.
06:32.8
Di ba ito yung RICO law yata na they went for that?
06:35.8
Well, using what?
06:39.4
O, yung mga ganun.
06:41.1
Kaya, ang dami mga angulo na pwedeng...
06:44.0
I mean, pwede mo lutuin itong ano na ito in different ways.
06:47.6
I mean, ikaw si BBM.
06:49.1
There's so many ways to cook this dish, diba?
06:53.2
But BBM has to cook it quick habang meron pa siyang influence.
06:57.6
So walang slow burn?
06:59.5
Hindi yan slow burn.
07:00.9
Quick burn niya yan.
07:01.8
Habang meron pa siyang influence.
07:03.6
Hindi ko i-underestimate si Digong.
07:08.5
May utak, may rootlessness.
07:10.7
And for now, he still has the wherewithal to do great damage to his enemies.
07:18.3
Pero in a year's time, yung wherewithal na yan,
07:22.5
kumawawala na dramatically.
07:24.7
So kung may gagawin siya,
07:26.3
he has to do it in the next few months.
07:29.0
Or not to do it at all.
07:32.1
Ako kasi, this is where I probably disagree with you a bit.
07:35.1
Ang point ko naman is,
07:36.4
I think time is on BBM's side in a sense that,
07:38.6
yes, he's gonna be a lame duck in 2026 or 2027.
07:44.5
But he has 2025 to really ram this through, right?
07:48.2
Especially if they dominate the elections big time.
07:50.9
Within six months after the elections,
07:53.0
You know, really.
07:54.0
Lalo kung talong-talo yung kapila, di ba?
07:55.6
So for me, the crucial years are 2024, 2025.
07:58.3
I think this is where BBM can really make,
08:00.9
leave a mark on the Philippines' political landscape.
08:03.5
And I think the ICC issue will be resolved within that period.
08:06.6
Or at least we'll see a major, major development on the ICC front
08:11.2
in this period of 2024, 2025.
08:13.5
We correctly saw Leyla Delima getting freed within this year, right?
08:18.1
We have been saying this throughout the year.
08:19.8
With Leloy separately, you and I have been saying,
08:22.0
na ma-resolve yan within the next six to eight months.
08:24.2
We kept on saying it.
08:25.3
It happened even earlier slightly.
08:27.2
So my sense is 2024, 2025,
08:29.8
this is also gonna be a strong year for BBM
08:31.8
because I don't see any real competition from any other side.
08:34.3
Do you think the Dutertes can really put off a strong fight in 2025?
08:39.1
Yeah, I agree with you, no?
08:41.2
Na ang window ng mga Duterte is a few months.
08:45.9
Ang window kay BBM is much longer.
08:49.4
Pero itong next few months,
08:53.1
he has to do something.
08:54.9
Habang meron pa siyang werewidal.
08:57.2
Habang meron pa siyang latent influence
08:59.9
within some key institutions in the government.
09:03.9
Military, police, bureaucracy.
09:09.8
Makawala na yan very soon.
09:13.7
Sige, I get what you're saying.
09:15.3
But let's just spell it out.
09:17.2
Like in what sense?
09:22.0
Meron siyang batch sa PMA na inaalagaan.
09:26.0
Na hindi yan mga pushover.
09:28.7
Mga one-star, two-star general yan mga yan.
09:32.8
Ikalawa ay meron siyang ginagamit na PEG
09:36.3
to increase his influence.
09:39.1
Itong anti-communist strategy niya.
09:46.0
Na nakatulong itong peace talks ng gobyerno.
09:50.6
Bakit ka magpipipipipipipi?
09:51.7
peace talks, napapabagsak na yung mga
09:53.6
komunista. Yun yung kanyang mensahe.
09:57.1
sabi nga ni Vice President Sara Duterte,
10:00.0
why is the government making a
10:01.7
pact with the devil? So, makikita mo
10:04.1
yung kanilang political narrative.
10:05.9
Malinaw yung sino yung political
10:07.5
target yan. At malinaw
10:09.8
sino yung gusto nilang mahatap.
10:12.3
Tapos, dito sa issue
10:13.9
ni Badoy, to some extent,
10:16.3
nag-blink, kumurap
10:18.1
yung gobyerno. Nung pinakawalan nila si
10:30.7
Ibig sabihin, it's
10:35.5
pumirma. Pero kumurap,
10:37.5
nag-blink yung gobyerno.
10:39.3
Pinakawalan si Badoy at saka si
10:41.4
Caselli. So, makikita mo
10:43.5
hindi lang ito labanan.
10:45.8
Hindi lang ito labanan
10:48.6
Okay. Usapin din ito.
10:50.2
Sino yung unang mag-blink?
10:53.1
Chicken game. May pagka-chicken
10:55.7
Sino yung una na kukurap?
11:01.2
Wow. I mean, yun nga.
11:02.6
I'm already looking at like 10 permutations
11:04.7
about his good turnout.
11:06.5
No, I agree. If you're
11:08.5
on the Duterta side,
11:10.1
you wanna strike while the iron rod is
11:12.5
hot, right? While on the BBM
11:14.4
side, he has their 1-2-2 year window.
11:16.4
If he waits longer than that,
11:18.4
then malalaos din siya.
11:20.4
Which really, I think, sets
11:22.4
the tone for our next conversation, which is on the
11:24.4
West Philippine Sea and all. Because the other
11:26.2
angle is, umiinit din yung situation sa
11:28.2
West Philippine Sea. At alam natin, napaka
11:31.9
How do you see that angle
11:34.4
also playing out? The superpowers are
11:36.3
also part of this conversation, one
11:38.3
or another. Invested din sila dito eh.
11:40.4
Malaki yung investment nila dito in many
11:42.1
sense of the world.
11:44.4
Well, more than two weeks
11:46.4
ago, bago itong napanood natin,
11:48.4
na Christmas Convoy,
11:50.4
may isa akong friend, Filipino-Chinese,
11:53.5
na may ari ng isang
11:55.4
malaking company,
11:57.7
ang nagsabi sa akin na
11:59.3
batay sa kanyang mga
12:00.6
conversations, sa kanyang mga kaibigan
12:02.9
sa mainland, China, ay
12:04.8
hindi mag-i-scale down yung
12:07.1
China. Dito sa ating
12:08.9
West Philippine Sea,
12:12.3
dito sa ating EEZ,
12:13.6
mag-i-scale up sila.
12:15.2
At no holds barred na sila.
12:18.4
confrontation, they will be very
12:20.7
aggressive. Galit sila.
12:24.5
Siguro nakita nila ay wala na talagang
12:33.1
Ngayon tingin nila wala na.
12:34.5
Almost sarado na. Tapos nakita rin
12:37.1
nila na habang nandyan pa
12:39.0
yung kanilang mga kaalyado,
12:41.3
habang hindi pa dinadala
12:44.2
Habang hindi pa...
12:48.4
Kailangan nilang buhusan.
12:50.9
Kaya makikita mo, very active
12:53.0
itong mga assets nila rito.
12:57.0
scaling up din ng tono
13:01.3
na pro-China, ng mga
13:02.8
spokespersons ng mga pro-China.
13:05.5
Nag-i-scaling up sila.
13:08.1
itong mga Pilipino nag-provoke
13:12.5
Dito sa Ayungin, sila yung bumunggo
13:14.9
dun sa Navy ship.
13:16.7
Binunggo ng isang napakalimutan.
13:18.4
Maliit na supply ship.
13:19.5
So mismo sila nag-i-scaling up.
13:21.4
Nabasa mo yung statement
13:22.4
ng Foreign Ministry ng China.
13:24.8
It's almost funny.
13:27.4
If it's not that dangerous.
13:29.6
Nakakatawa yung statement
13:30.9
na talagang tayo yung agresor.
13:35.2
yung sinasabi nila before
13:38.4
na may isang presidente
13:41.1
na nag-volunteer mismo
13:43.4
na tatanggalin natin
13:45.6
yung ating BRP Sierra Madre.
13:48.4
Ito naman yan a few days ago.
13:51.2
itong sinasabi ng friend ko
13:53.9
ay nakikita rin natin
13:56.2
hindi lamang doon sa mga incidents
13:59.6
kung hindi dito sa mga pronouncements
14:01.5
ng kanilang Foreign Ministry.
14:04.4
I doubt if it's going to cool down
14:07.2
after the new year.
14:09.7
I doubt if that's going to happen.
14:11.0
Hindi naman ito mayari
14:12.1
ng malalaking malls.
14:14.9
thank you very much for this.
14:16.1
I think this sets it perfectly
14:17.4
for our next episode.
14:18.4
Pag-usapan natin itong
14:19.4
West Philippine Sea China Angle.
14:20.7
I think this is very important.
14:22.1
Thank you very much,
