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00:04.0
Mabaling ito yung aircon, i-on mo pa eh.
00:06.0
I-on mo pa ito yung aircon.
00:20.0
Tapos ipikisa mo pa ito.
00:22.0
Ipikisa mo pa ito.
00:24.0
Ito yung thermometer.
00:26.0
Basit mo te akyat.
00:32.0
I-low cool mo tas ibasit mo na akyat
00:34.0
i-low ito yung thermometer.
00:36.0
Kaya nagsisama mo, dito mo,
00:40.0
Kasi kaya, kailangan.
00:42.0
Pero i-learn mo there
00:44.0
kung how you can, ano,
00:46.0
you did yourself.
00:48.0
Sama yung thermometer.
00:50.0
This is the level of cool, this is the strength.
00:52.0
One is temperature.
00:54.0
Dago naman lang muni talaga.
00:56.0
70 is already high eh.
00:58.0
Sige, okay na yan.
01:20.0
Ayan na, ayan na. Kamusta kayo dyan?
01:22.0
Mga kameta, patapos na ang taon.
01:24.0
Ito na, of course, as a
01:26.0
the year begins to end,
01:30.0
tayo ng konti-konti.
01:32.0
Medyo kagabi, we were not
01:34.0
in our best shape. Medyo kita niyo,
01:36.0
I'm not still 100% yet.
01:38.0
Pero dahil mahal namin kayo,
01:40.0
i-share natin yung mga
01:42.0
reflection natin habang
01:44.0
we're a little bit, you know,
01:46.0
under the weather. At of course,
01:48.0
isa sa mga reflection natin, reflections natin
01:50.0
was, aside from, yeah, you have to take
01:52.0
care of yourself more.
01:54.0
Huwag mo i-push sarili mo to the
01:58.0
you know, this whole
02:00.0
propaganda line that is coming
02:02.0
out from a certain camp na sinasabi,
02:04.0
I see BBM ay isa,
02:06.0
BBM is nothing but, you know,
02:16.0
we should stop comparing, or
02:18.0
we should stop going back to the Aquino versus
02:20.0
BBM kind of fight, and all of that.
02:22.0
And I just felt that, you know,
02:24.0
there are a number of problems with that
02:26.0
comparison, because I think, first of all,
02:28.0
pag tinignan mo si, yung track record
02:30.0
ni former president, late president
02:32.0
Aquino Jr., compare,
02:34.0
Aquino III, sorry, kumpara kay
02:36.0
Marcos Jr., there's a lot of differences.
02:38.0
I mean, to begin with, of course,
02:40.0
good governance agendas. Kamusta ang daan
02:42.0
matuwid agenda ng kasalukuyan
02:44.0
na administration? But more
02:46.0
than that, I think there is also this
02:48.0
nefarious attempt by a certain camp
02:50.0
to lump the two together so
02:52.0
that they make their own
02:58.0
complete sense of the word, look
03:00.0
like the anti-establishment
03:04.0
Parang the idea is that, pag sinabi mo
03:06.0
or in-argue mo ng Aquino's
03:08.0
and Marcos's, all of them are the same, you're essentially
03:10.0
saying they're all establishment
03:12.0
Manila, imperial Manila
03:14.0
politicians, therefore the
03:16.0
real, real alternative, the real
03:18.0
great leader is si Tatay,
03:20.0
di ba? Parang ganun yung line of argumentation.
03:24.0
to be honest, I mean, I
03:26.0
agree with putting Marcos
03:28.0
and Aquino in the same sentence
03:30.0
when it comes to fighting
03:32.0
for the West Philippine Sea,
03:34.0
but even if I were to concede that,
03:36.0
ang sasabihin ko dyan is, malaki pa rin
03:38.0
yung pagkakaiba ni
03:40.0
President Aquino from President Marcos Jr.,
03:42.0
at least so far. And I think it's
03:44.0
quite important to put the legacy
03:46.0
of former President Aquino Jr.
03:48.0
Ay, Jr. Wala, tingnan,
03:50.0
wala na, I'm not, wala na.
03:54.0
Marcos Jr. into context. So first kay
03:56.0
Marcos Jr., his term
03:58.0
is, you know, he's yet to hit
04:00.0
the midway point, but
04:02.0
the reality is that first year pa lang niya
04:04.0
President Aquino III,
04:06.0
si Pinoy, we already knew, no?
04:08.0
We already knew na anong gusto niya
04:10.0
mangyari sa buhay, no? Very clear siya
04:12.0
dun sa kanyang objectives, especially yung kanyang
04:14.0
daan matuwid agenda.
04:16.0
Now, we can have a long conversation
04:18.0
about how effective, how sincerely,
04:22.0
that was implemented, but at least
04:24.0
it was pretty clear what he stood for, no?
04:26.0
And at least there was an attempt at good governance
04:28.0
agenda. I'm not sure we're seeing
04:30.0
that yet, right? Now,
04:34.0
to this issue because there's a reason
04:36.0
why I'm also wearing yellow now. This is not
04:38.0
necessarily an expression of solidarity
04:42.0
but I just noticed na
04:48.0
for six years, parang never ako
04:50.0
nagsuot ng yellow except kung Brazil,
04:52.0
right? Kung Brazil. And the yellow
04:54.0
of Brazil national team, yung mga football
04:56.0
jersey natin, yung mga basketball jersey natin,
04:58.0
medyo iba siya dito sa yellow na gano'n.
05:00.0
So, actually, just kanina lang naisip ko,
05:02.0
bakit usutin ko talagang
05:04.0
tong yellow shirt niyan? Because
05:06.0
yellow is really a beautiful color.
05:08.0
It's a beautiful color. It's a color of hope.
05:10.0
It's a color of energy. It's a color of
05:12.0
sun, right? In a way, it's a color
05:14.0
of life, no? And I noticed
05:16.0
one of the things that happened really under
05:18.0
the previous administration was
05:20.0
this demonization of
05:22.0
not only a certain political camp,
05:24.0
not only demonization of a
05:26.0
former president, but the demonization
05:28.0
of the beautiful, glorious, gorgeous
05:30.0
color, which is yellow, right? And I think
05:32.0
bilang mga Pinoy sa nasa ano, this is a color
05:34.0
that we would love. This is a color that
05:36.0
you feel very comfortable
05:44.0
time for us to wear more yellow. I mean, that's what I'm
05:46.0
gonna say. And it's time for us
05:50.0
be on the defensive. To not
05:52.0
be on the defensive. And actually take it to the other
05:54.0
side, no? Especially doon sa mga makapili
05:56.0
club. Makapili school of diplomacy,
05:58.0
makapili economics,
06:00.0
makapili school of tatay
06:02.0
digong, yung mga ganun. I'm sorry.
06:04.0
Makapili school... Alam nyo na, okay.
06:06.0
No, no, no. Ito, ito. No,
06:10.0
Just because you criticize Duterte
06:14.0
automatically dilawan ka. In the
06:22.0
doing something that some supporters
06:24.0
of Aquino like doesn't mean that Marcos
06:26.0
Jr. is the same as Aquino, right? And this idea
06:28.0
of the enemy of my enemy
06:30.0
is my friend also doesn't make sense.
06:32.0
It is clear that the unity is falling apart
06:34.0
so may hiduan sa pagkita ng mga Marcos
06:38.0
Pero not necessarily dapat ang gagawin natin
06:40.0
dito is ilalump si Marcos and
06:42.0
Aquino into the same camp. So, how do you
06:48.0
My argument is very simple.
06:50.0
My argument is very simple. At yun yung naisip ko
06:52.0
kaapon habang medyo nag-recover pa tayo.
06:56.0
actually, because
06:58.0
si Duterte ay isang malaking
07:00.0
aberration, he's just such
07:02.0
an aberration, such an
07:04.0
you know, outside the, you know, beyond
07:06.0
the pale kind of political
07:08.0
figure in Philippine history. Now, of course, for
07:10.0
some people, that makes him fantastic,
07:12.0
but for some other people, it's like, wow,
07:14.0
that makes him jehoror.
07:16.0
The point is, he was just so outside the curve
07:20.0
other Filipino presidents
07:24.0
right? Because he's an
07:26.0
anti-establishment demagogic
07:28.0
figure, right? Suddenly,
07:30.0
si BBM ay mukhang moderate
07:34.0
figure, right? And therefore,
07:36.0
BBM suddenly looks much more similar
07:38.0
to Aquino. So, if this were to a
07:40.0
spectrum, Digong will be all
07:42.0
the way here, right? If this is like
07:44.0
50 shades of gray, light
07:46.0
gray to super dark gray, like,
07:48.0
Digong is all the way there close to dark,
07:52.0
color. And then, like, Aquino
07:54.0
is, let's argue, for the sake
07:56.0
of ideological differentiation, if I can,
07:58.0
and dito sa light gray,
08:02.0
mas malapit kay Pinoy
08:04.0
kaysa kay Digong, right?
08:06.0
But that doesn't mean Pinoy
08:08.0
and Marcos Jr. are
08:10.0
necessarily the same. It's just that yung isa ay
08:12.0
sobrang layo sa lahat,
08:14.0
naging mukhang yung dalawa ay nasa isang kampo,
08:16.0
right? So that's the way
08:18.0
I visualize etong
08:20.0
propaganda line of attack
08:22.0
na nangyong kita natin ngayon. Even
08:24.0
if I would consider that
08:28.0
some of his basic sensibilities,
08:30.0
right? Marcos Jr. is much
08:32.0
closer to, and I think this is where I agree with
08:34.0
my good colleague, Silisandro Claudio,
08:36.0
Marcos Jr. is ironically
08:38.0
your traditional post-Marcos
08:40.0
Filipino president, right?
08:42.0
He is operating within the
08:44.0
quote-unquote, Aquino
08:46.0
Constitution, right? So far,
08:48.0
we're not seeing a direct assault on that
08:50.0
but things could change as conversations
08:52.0
over constitutional change
08:54.0
gain steam, especially after
08:56.0
2025 elections. But so far,
08:58.0
BBM looks like a very
09:00.0
traditional post-Marcos ETSA
09:02.0
regime president, while Duterte
09:06.0
you know, just so outside the box,
09:10.0
in a completely different, you know, if there's
09:12.0
a quadrant here, sobrang outside there,
09:14.0
it makes BBM and Akem
09:16.0
look like they're inside the same box.
09:18.0
But that's not true. It's the aberration
09:20.0
of Duterte that makes other presidents
09:22.0
look similar, even though those other
09:24.0
presidents are significantly
09:26.0
different from each other, right? But as I said,
09:28.0
there's a propaganda value
09:30.0
to that argument. Kasi pag sinabi mo
09:32.0
ay Pinoy at Aquino ay similar,
09:34.0
isang kampo lang sila, clearly
09:36.0
ang ginagawa mo is you're
09:38.0
glorifying Digong as the
09:40.0
outside, anti-establishment,
09:44.0
alternative candidate.
09:46.0
Now, of course, si Digong himself, I don't know if he'll be
09:48.0
in a position to run for presidency
09:50.0
or even any high office anytime soon,
09:52.0
but the daughter is still there.
09:54.0
The vice president is still there. So,
09:56.0
ang basa ko dito, may ganyan na elemento
09:58.0
nangyari dyan. May ganyan propaganda
10:00.0
para i-re-energize yung
10:04.0
hindi atento dun sa Christmas Convoys
10:06.0
away, pero yung atento pre,
10:08.0
you know, tayo talaga, real
10:10.0
change is coming, populist
10:12.0
kind of mobilization. Is it gonna
10:14.0
work? No, I completely doubt that, right?
10:16.0
And kaya, siyempre, ang mga
10:18.0
response natin sa mga kaibigan natin is
10:20.0
mostly sarcastic, right?
10:22.0
Yung mga tipong sabi na, siyempre,
10:24.0
they wanna say, Digong was exceptional,
10:26.0
he had such a high approval ratings, etc.,
10:28.0
which is true, right? But I can give you a whole host
10:30.0
of very questionable leaders,
10:34.0
you know, even more questionable ones, who also
10:36.0
have very high approval ratings. There's a very
10:38.0
there's a very, you know,
10:40.0
thin, I would say it's an
10:42.0
inverse relationship, right?
10:44.0
Yung relationship between popularity
10:46.0
and competence. The two do not necessarily
10:48.0
go hand in hand. Sometimes, actually, the
10:50.0
best presidents are very unpopular,
10:52.0
because doing the right thing is very
10:54.0
unpopular most of the time.
10:56.0
So, popularity is not necessarily
10:58.0
indicator of merit and competence,
11:02.0
this is the argument I've made that, you
11:04.0
know, that did not sit well
11:06.0
with a lot of our friends,
11:08.0
it's also hard to trust
11:10.0
the validity of surveys
11:12.0
in climates of fear,
11:14.0
right? So, when I hear about surveys
11:16.0
on the popularity of Putin,
11:18.0
it's like, yeah, let's say someone calls you in Russia
11:20.0
and says, hello, I'm, you know,
11:22.0
I'm Mr., I don't know, Kadirov,
11:24.0
calling you from, you know, I want to know your
11:26.0
opinion of our great leader,
11:28.0
Mr. Putin. Do you like him?
11:30.0
You do not like him. If you're in Russia,
11:32.0
you're crazy to say I don't like Putin
11:34.0
over phone, right? Or if someone knocks on your door,
11:36.0
hello, my name is, you know,
11:38.0
you know what I'm saying?
11:40.0
In a climate of fear, preferences
11:42.0
are psychologically
11:44.0
and sometimes more than psychologically already,
11:46.0
manipulated or already self-censored,
11:48.0
right? Now, we're not
11:52.0
dictatorship situation. I always argued that
11:54.0
Duterte was not even competent enough to be a dictator,
11:56.0
but the reality is that the climate
11:58.0
of fear was always a factor.
12:00.0
Now, that doesn't mean that he was not popular.
12:02.0
I still believe that President Duterte was popular,
12:04.0
but so were other
12:06.0
presidents at certain point in time. I mean, most of
12:08.0
our presidents had 50, 60 percent approval
12:10.0
ratings, you know, throughout
12:12.0
their term in office, right? Of course, Duterte
12:14.0
ended on the, you know,
12:16.0
but even the bigger argument is even if I
12:18.0
were to grant that he was genuinely popular
12:20.0
and had nothing to do with fear and all of that,
12:22.0
so what? So what? I mean,
12:24.0
just because you're popular doesn't mean you're right,
12:26.0
right? As I said, good presidents tend to be
12:28.0
not so popular because doing the right
12:30.0
thing makes you unpopular. Now, having said
12:32.0
all of those things,
12:34.0
mag-focus tayo sa dalawang
12:36.0
bagay, no? Unang-una,
12:38.0
again, sarcastic ako, di ba?
12:40.0
Yan ang problema, hindi na i-guess ng tao na sarcastic
12:42.0
tayo. I mean, yan ang problema
12:44.0
ng mga tao, yung ibang dyan.
12:46.0
Unang-una, isn't it ironic
12:48.0
na palating sinisabi ni Digong na
12:50.0
weak leader at spoiled brat, etong isang
12:54.0
And then, pag tinignan mo yung
12:56.0
West Philippine Sea disputes,
12:58.0
it's actually President Marco
13:00.0
Jr. who is showing far
13:02.0
more, you know, courage
13:04.0
and tenacity in dealing with China
13:06.0
than the previous president who was like, wala tayong
13:08.0
magagawa, let's be meek, let's be
13:10.0
humble, yung mga puro mga ganyan-ganyan.
13:12.0
And of course, if you wanna see a proper
13:14.0
analysis of the context of Marco Jr.
13:16.0
going quote-unquote toe-to-toe with China
13:18.0
and talking about new paradigm, please
13:20.0
check out my latest article on the
13:22.0
English Times, why Marco Jr. wants to go toe-to-toe
13:24.0
with China. Philippine President
13:26.0
has defied expectations.
13:28.0
He would follow his predecessor
13:30.0
in kow-towing to China in
13:32.0
the South China Sea. Salamat sa mga editors
13:34.0
natin dyan. Hindi akong gumawa
13:36.0
ng mga subtitle na yan. But
13:38.0
please check out this article, you'll see how I explained
13:40.0
that actually, ironically, Marco
13:42.0
Jr. has turned out far, far, far,
13:44.0
far more confrontational towards China.
13:46.0
And less, less, less
13:50.0
some people would have suggested. And if anything,
13:52.0
between Duterte and Marco Jr.,
13:54.0
alam natin sinong mas matapang sa West Philippines.
13:56.0
At sinong mas ganyan-ganyan sa China.
14:00.0
hindi po U.S. ang gustong
14:04.0
ang U.S. ang sumasakot dito sa West
14:06.0
Philippines. Let's be very clear about that.
14:08.0
So, huwag kayong magpagulay.
14:10.0
Pero what about West?
14:12.0
What about ganyan? If si
14:14.0
Digong, if Digong was really against
14:16.0
all imperialist powers in history,
14:18.0
bakit wala siyang sinabing
14:20.0
masama sa Japan ever since?
14:22.0
Pansin niyo, si Digong sobrang
14:24.0
beshi siya sa Japan. Well, guess what?
14:26.0
If you wanna talk about Balangiga Bells 100
14:28.0
years ago, why are you not talking about
14:30.0
what Imperial Japan horrible things they did
14:32.0
to us during the Second World War in the
14:34.0
1940s, which is far more recent
14:36.0
than the Balangiga Bells situation?
14:38.0
So doon pala nakita mo na walang basihan
14:40.0
itong argument ni Digong na
14:42.0
anti-Western, anti-imperialist.
14:44.0
Eh kung galit ka sa West for what
14:46.0
they did 100 years ago, dapat galit ka rin sa Japan
14:48.0
sa ginawa nila 70 years ago. Bakit ang
14:50.0
beshi-beshi mo sa Japan? See?
14:52.0
Huli ko sila eh. Huli ko yung mga ganyan mga
14:54.0
ano eh, mga ganyan pa-effect
14:56.0
effect na anti-colonial, post-colonial
14:58.0
effect. Alam na natin yan, yung mga fake na
15:00.0
ganyan. Kasing fake nung ganyang
15:02.0
6 months ayusin ko yung mga problema
15:04.0
mga fake na ganyan. Anyway,
15:06.0
basahin niyo mga kameta na explain natin dyan.
15:08.0
So, I think President
15:10.0
Marco Jr. deserves far more credit
15:14.0
tough stance dyan sa West
15:16.0
Philippine Sea. We can have a long discussion
15:18.0
about whether this is the best way forward, but my
15:22.0
if we do not stand our ground,
15:24.0
we're not gonna get respect. And if we don't get
15:26.0
respect, we're just gonna be bullied right and left.
15:30.0
again, doon sa makapili
15:32.0
mga kaibigan natin ng mga kapili club,
15:34.0
yung mga makapili economics, school of diplomacy,
15:36.0
yung mga gusto mag-mention ng
15:38.0
Vietnam. By the way, Vietnam, it's
15:40.0
true, is getting billions of dollars of investments
15:42.0
from China, but that's
15:44.0
not because Vietnam is suddenly giving up their
15:46.0
claims or not standing up
15:48.0
to China sa South China Sea
15:50.0
or East Sea. Actually,
15:52.0
Vietnam made it absolutely clear
15:54.0
right, during yung pagbisita
15:56.0
ni Xi Jinping sa Hanoi recently,
15:58.0
that sovereignty and territorial
16:00.0
integrity has to be respected.
16:02.0
So ang China, gets nila, matapang tong
16:04.0
Vietnam, di nila pwedeng buli-bulin lang,
16:06.0
they just had to accept it grudgingly that
16:08.0
they have to deal with Vietnam as it is.
16:10.0
And they're not going to have things easy.
16:12.0
And the reason why Chinese invest in Vietnam
16:14.0
is because of geography.
16:16.0
Because Vietnam is so close to the Pearl River
16:18.0
Delta, the Greater Bay Area production
16:20.0
networks of China. It's because Vietnam
16:22.0
has direct access to Western
16:24.0
markets. It has a free trade agreement
16:26.0
with the United States, free trade agreement
16:28.0
with the European Union. It
16:30.0
is part of the CPTPP with Japan,
16:32.0
Australia, and a number of other countries.
16:34.0
So if you're a Chinese investor,
16:36.0
it's good to have a foothold in Vietnam.
16:38.0
Not to mention, Vietnam has a
16:40.0
sufficiently robust industrial manufacturing
16:42.0
base already, and a far more
16:44.0
decent infrastructure and regulatory
16:46.0
environment compared to, let's be
16:48.0
honest, compared to Philippines for that matter.
16:50.0
So please lang, huwag nga i-spin yan.
16:52.0
Right? So I think President Marco Juno
16:54.0
is correct to insist
16:56.0
that hindi pwede yung
16:58.0
magpapaganyan-ganyan lang tayo.
17:00.0
We have to stand our ground. We have to
17:04.0
our multilateral engagements.
17:06.0
And President Marco Juno will be visiting an
17:08.0
ASEAN country soon to also build
17:10.0
bilateral cooperation with some of the key
17:12.0
ASEAN countries. As I said, ASEAN 10
17:14.0
just north of useless in terms of
17:16.0
helping us in the West Philippine Sea. But some of the
17:18.0
key ASEAN countries could be helpful to us. But let me
17:20.0
go to the last part, really, of this
17:22.0
discussion, which I think is very
17:24.0
very important, mga kameta.
17:28.0
you look at it, if you really look at
17:38.0
How should I put it? I have been very critical
17:42.0
in this country. I've been very critical
17:44.0
of liberal reformist administrations
17:46.0
in this country. Although admittedly,
17:48.0
I was always slightly
17:50.0
more understanding
17:52.0
of the Ramos administration considering
17:54.0
its starting point
17:56.0
than perhaps the other liberal reformist administrations.
17:58.0
But regardless of that, I mean,
18:00.0
I mean, look at it.
18:02.0
That's why I laugh
18:08.0
Like, hello, I mean, if you
18:10.0
guys, if you're literate, if you're just
18:12.0
googling, it's not hard to google, just look at
18:14.0
all of those critical things I wrote
18:16.0
about the previous administration
18:18.0
throughout the years. You know, I mean,
18:22.0
I was actually critical of the Akinu administration's
18:24.0
South China Sea policy.
18:26.0
In my opinion, it's too
18:28.0
confrontational towards China
18:32.0
you know, at the same time, making sure
18:34.0
we do our assignment on the ground.
18:36.0
So if you look at my article, Philippines Loves
18:38.0
Sided South China Sea Strategy, I said,
18:40.0
you're all about legal arbitration,
18:42.0
you're all about diplomacy.
18:44.0
What's lacking is that you don't
18:46.0
strengthen or fortify our position
18:48.0
on the ground. Our airstrip
18:50.0
in Pag-asa looks pitiful.
18:52.0
The Sierra Madre in
18:54.0
Second Tonga Shoal, it's dilapidated.
18:56.0
It's falling apart. So okay,
18:58.0
that's good. Send people there.
19:02.0
In fairness, they didn't do that.
19:04.0
But you get what I'm saying. It's fantastic.
19:06.0
Go to international court, blah, blah, blah.
19:08.0
But you have to do your assignment.
19:10.0
You have to fortify our position on the ground.
19:12.0
Whether in Ayungin Shoal,
19:14.0
whether in Pag-asa. In fairness,
19:16.0
the administration that started doing that
19:18.0
again for the first time since
19:20.0
Marcos Sr. is Digong's administration.
19:22.0
Lorenzano was the one who oversaw
19:24.0
the fortification. So I have
19:26.0
been critical of the previous...
19:28.0
the late Secretary, Foreign Secretary
19:30.0
Del Rosario. And his
19:32.0
argument was, oh, we have to have moral high ground.
19:34.0
And I disagree with that. I don't think...
19:38.0
now, mutual exclusive, now we file
19:40.0
for an arbitration award, and then we
19:42.0
essentially tie our own hands at the back
19:44.0
considering we were already behind the curve. Because
19:46.0
actually, legally speaking, you can talk
19:48.0
to any international law expert. I had
19:50.0
to talk to many international law experts
19:52.0
from all around the world when I was writing my book
19:54.0
Asia's New Battlefield. It's absolutely clear.
19:56.0
Changing the nature of
19:58.0
disputed features is against international law.
20:00.0
But fortifying what's already
20:02.0
there without changing the nature of disputed features,
20:04.0
that's not against international law.
20:06.0
So, yung Pag-asa, islan na yun eh.
20:08.0
It's already a rock at the very
20:10.0
least. So, fixing the airstrip
20:12.0
there is not against international law.
20:14.0
Alright? That we have... But if ginawa mo siyang
20:16.0
super-genkating island, katulad
20:18.0
ng ginagawa ng China, that's siliga.
20:20.0
And that goes against international law. So I just felt
20:22.0
masyadong timid yung ating
20:24.0
policy on the ground.
20:26.0
I was also very critical of the economic
20:30.0
economic administration, for instance, right?
20:32.0
You know, one of the things
20:34.0
I always focused. And then there's
20:36.0
yung mga economist friend natin, yung mga
20:38.0
Google Trends Club friends
20:40.0
natin dyan. Yan. Yung isa dyan
20:42.0
nung may mga nag-quote
20:44.0
sa akin na sabi nga ni Haydar yan, ganito yung
20:48.0
income generation sa Philippines. Sabi niya, saan niya
20:50.0
yung ginawa? Kino-rec ko siya tuloy.
20:52.0
Yan kasi, hindi kasi nagbabasa eh.
20:56.0
2011, the 40 richest
20:58.0
families in the Philippines Forbes
21:00.0
wealth list accounted for
21:04.0
of the country's gross domestic product
21:08.0
of every 6% growth
21:10.0
every year. That's just short
21:12.0
of 5%. So kung nag-
21:14.0
6% growth ang Pilipinas every year,
21:16.0
this is in early 2010s,
21:18.0
4 to 5% just goes to
21:20.0
40 richest families. This
21:22.0
is the worst in Asia
21:24.0
compared with Thailand, where the top
21:26.0
40 richest accounted for 33.7%.
21:30.0
Less than half of the Philippines.
21:32.0
And look at Thailand, ang gulo ng politics nila.
21:38.0
and Japan is 2.8%.
21:40.0
Alright? Ipo-post ko dito. Parang
21:42.0
makita niya, nagkakaroon ako malala
21:44.0
yung situation sa Pilipinas when it comes
21:46.0
to yung control ng mga oligarkies
21:48.0
sa ating economic structure.
21:50.0
Alright? I'll explain to you
21:52.0
shortly. Of course, you're gonna say, it's 2011.
21:54.0
12, kakapasok lang ni Pinoy.
21:56.0
Why you are blaming me? Blah, blah, blah.
21:58.0
But, first of all, let's
22:00.0
get the facts straight, okay? This is
22:02.0
the number, okay?
22:04.0
We are the most unequal
22:08.0
and one of the worst on Earth.
22:12.0
40 richest families took home
22:16.0
created growth. Now, a lot of people who are not
22:18.0
very, you know, subtle in reading,
22:22.0
of entire wealth in the Philippines is only.
22:24.0
40 families. Not necessarily.
22:26.0
This just says 76%
22:28.0
of newly created wealth.
22:30.0
So, kung every year nagdagdag,
22:32.0
dumagdag tayo ng 20 billion dollars
22:34.0
sa ating GDP, gross domestic product,
22:38.0
close to 15 billion dollars of
22:40.0
that, goes to only 40 families.
22:42.0
Right? Only 40 families.
22:44.0
And back then, Henry C.
22:46.0
and Lucio Tan were both worth
22:48.0
a combined 13.6 billion dollars.
22:50.0
Right? In a country where
22:52.0
tens of millions of people live under
22:54.0
the poverty line. Our situation
22:56.0
is twice worse, more than twice
22:58.0
worse than Thailand, already
23:00.0
a very unequal and politically unstable country.
23:02.0
A lot of political instability in Thailand
23:04.0
has to do with inequality of growth.
23:06.0
You go to Bangkok,
23:08.0
very well developed metropolis, and then there's
23:10.0
no other major city in Thailand of comparison.
23:12.0
I don't think Chiang Mai
23:14.0
is anywhere close to that.
23:16.0
Chiang Mai to Bangkok is like,
23:18.0
I don't know, Baguio to Manila. I mean, I love
23:20.0
Baguio, I'm proud of it, but it's not really
23:22.0
a comparison. Right? They barely
23:24.0
have a Cebu to a Manila. Right?
23:26.0
Forget about, I don't know,
23:28.0
Los Angeles to New York. So it's a very
23:30.0
imbalanced and unequal country.
23:32.0
We're twice worse than Thailand. More than twice
23:34.0
worse. And Malaysia is only 5.6%.
23:36.0
So Malaysia also has its own
23:38.0
oligarchs. Mahathir has its own oligarchs,
23:40.0
including the guy who built the Petronas Towers.
23:42.0
Right? That guy behind it,
23:44.0
before Petronas had to bail it out,
23:46.0
that guy was known as an oligarch of Mahathir.
23:50.0
But Malaysia is only 5.6%.
23:52.0
Japan is not even
23:54.0
3%. So we're like
23:58.0
times worse than Japan. Already
24:00.0
a very wealthy country with a per capita income
24:02.0
of 8 times us in terms of
24:06.0
of distribution of new wealth.
24:08.0
So, I hope people
24:12.0
medyo critical ako sa akin
24:14.0
administration because sa tingin ko
24:16.0
masyado silang standard
24:18.0
sa kanilang policies. They did not
24:20.0
come out with any
24:22.0
really outside the box
24:24.0
and important industrial
24:26.0
trade policies to make the Philippines
24:28.0
a manufacturing power.
24:30.0
Name me a single major industrial
24:32.0
policy that was introduced during the
24:34.0
akin administration to help us build
24:36.0
our own version of VinFast.
24:38.0
Or our own version of, I don't know,
24:40.0
Proton of Malaysia.
24:42.0
Forget about Hyundai
24:44.0
or whatever. Wala.
24:46.0
Wala. Industrial policy is the reason
24:48.0
why Vietnam is building its own electric
24:50.0
cars right now. Industrial policy is the reason
24:52.0
why. What is industrial policy?
24:54.0
You coordinate with your oligarchs and big businesses
24:56.0
to push them in the direction to build
24:58.0
world-class technologies and industries.
25:00.0
We didn't have that. What we had
25:02.0
was standard economic practices
25:04.0
and macroeconomic, macroprudential
25:06.0
policies which did not fundamentally
25:08.0
change the structure of the Philippine economy.
25:10.0
Kaya nung bumaba si Aquino,
25:12.0
the Philippines was still
25:14.0
and not a country far from
25:16.0
being a manufacturing power. And we're still
25:18.0
kulelat among our peers in terms
25:20.0
of attracting investments and all of that.
25:22.0
So that's the reason why I felt
25:24.0
Aquino was doing okay
25:26.0
within the existing framework but he had to go
25:28.0
way beyond that to really dramatically
25:30.0
change the landscape. That's why I was critical.
25:32.0
Kaya yung mga bobo dyan,
25:34.0
Daryan Dilawan, etc.
25:36.0
Are you kidding me? Have you read all these critical
25:38.0
things I've been reading? Obviously these people don't read
25:40.0
but it's a rhetorical question. I'm just
25:42.0
exposing what kind of fools
25:44.0
these people are. But you see,
25:46.0
that's my point. Kaya nga I always
25:48.0
felt, you're not gonna impress
25:50.0
me as a new administration president
25:52.0
unless you have something significant to bring to the table
25:54.0
because the situation is really bad
25:56.0
in terms of inequality growth.
25:58.0
I was also critical of the Haiyan situation.
26:00.0
Look at this article I wrote, Philippines Haiyan
26:02.0
Tragedy, What Went Wrong. So I look at
26:06.0
not in a DDS way, you know,
26:08.0
critical, but in a fair way
26:10.0
based on evidence way critical.
26:12.0
I also had a number
26:14.0
of articles on the Mama Sapana situation.
26:16.0
In fact, I just figured, I had apparently
26:20.0
on Mama Sapana and how I felt
26:22.0
that, you know, that
26:24.0
was a big blow to the popularity
26:26.0
of former President Aquino and all of that. So,
26:28.0
you can go on and on and find a lot of articles that he wrote
26:30.0
that were quite critical of the Aquino administration
26:32.0
and all of that, right? So you can check in this article
26:34.0
also I explained things. But,
26:36.0
having said all of those things,
26:38.0
I think Aquino at least got some of the basic
26:40.0
things right. You know, he
26:42.0
didn't go really outside the box and he threw something
26:44.0
significant. But he got one of the basic things right.
26:46.0
And in fact, it was under President
26:48.0
Aquino that we began to make
26:50.0
some of the first good
26:54.0
yung mga ano natin, kukuni lang nila
26:56.0
itong part na ito. Tatanggalin nila
26:58.0
lahat ng mga sinabi ko kanina,
27:00.0
kukuni lang nila itong mga part na ito.
27:02.0
Alam mo, yung mga yun na yan. But,
27:04.0
let me just be absolutely, let me just
27:06.0
be very clear about this.
27:10.0
that the Philippines is supposing an Asia's
27:16.0
sobrang annoying yan. Because I kept
27:18.0
on hearing that during the previous
27:20.0
administration. Salamat kay Tatay
27:22.0
Digong. Ano na tayo? Rising
27:24.0
Asian Tiger Blah Blah. I said,
27:28.0
This was under Pinoy. Alright?
27:30.0
So, this is a Philippine Star article
27:34.0
Alright? Mahin yun dyan. Sinong
27:36.0
presidente natin ng 2013? Hindi si Tatay
27:38.0
Digong. Alright? Naka-dilaw
27:40.0
shirt pa yata siya nung panon yan. Election ba yan?
27:44.0
Tingnan yung mga elections
27:46.0
tayo. Mga kasama ni Digong at si
27:48.0
Ross. Okay. Anyway. At
27:50.0
interestingly, if you zoom in
27:52.0
into this article,
27:56.0
is where this announcement was made.
27:58.0
So, there was this meeting
28:04.0
there was Moto Kunishi.
28:06.0
Ito yung hapon na
28:08.0
economist who was in charge of the Philippines
28:12.0
World Bank. This is the 2013
28:14.0
Philippine Development Forum
28:16.0
and it took place in Marco Polo
28:18.0
Hotel. Of course, alam niyo naman.
28:20.0
Marco Polo Hotel.
28:22.0
Alam mo naman. The whole Davao.
28:26.0
actually dito, nagkaroon
28:28.0
ng announcement, in-annuncio
28:30.0
ng World Bank expert ng
28:32.0
Pilipinas is now considered as
28:34.0
a rising Asian Tiger economy
28:36.0
because at least,
28:38.0
the one good thing and one important good thing
28:40.0
that President Marcos Junior, sorry, President Aquino
28:44.0
was able to establish was,
28:46.0
just enough stability,
28:48.0
just enough good governance signaling,
28:50.0
not really fully sufficient,
28:52.0
we can have a long conversation,
28:56.0
make the world think of us
29:00.0
you know, kind of a sick man of Asia again.
29:02.0
I mean, it just allowed us to
29:04.0
slowly get rid of that
29:06.0
sick man of Asia label
29:08.0
and it allowed us to be taken more seriously by
29:10.0
investors and international community
29:12.0
and in fairness to President Marcos, ah President Aquino
29:14.0
President Aquino,
29:16.0
it was under his term that we had the
29:18.0
highest average growth rate
29:20.0
of any president, Philippine president
29:22.0
in recent memory. That's a fact
29:24.0
that we cannot get rid of. Now, does that make him
29:26.0
a fantastic president? As I said,
29:28.0
for me, a fantastic president
29:30.0
is someone who's fundamentally
29:32.0
changed the structure of Philippine economy so that
29:34.0
Hindi 40 families take home
29:38.0
growth, right? That's crazy.
29:42.0
in Philippines is
29:44.0
twice worse than Thailand inequality
29:48.0
worse than, I don't know, Malaysia and
29:50.0
30 times, I don't know, worse than Japan.
29:52.0
That's crazy. Those numbers are crazy.
29:54.0
So you really need a radical president to
29:56.0
really put the Philippines on the right path.
29:58.0
But in terms of just getting
30:00.0
the most out of what we had, I think President
30:02.0
Aquino did a pretty decent job
30:04.0
and I think he deserves some credit for that.
30:06.0
That's why I think there's no
30:10.0
you know, folks saying that they voted for Aquino
30:12.0
at some point in time or they supported Aquino at some point
30:14.0
in time. But, at the same
30:16.0
time, you have to be also open to constructive
30:18.0
criticism, right? You have to be
30:20.0
open to the idea that, you know,
30:22.0
we needed even more than that.
30:24.0
And precisely because
30:26.0
we're not able to bring about
30:28.0
yung massive transformation
30:30.0
in the economy, nagtataka
30:32.0
kayo bakit bumutang tao sa isang katulad
30:34.0
ni Digong noong 2016?
30:36.0
I mean, for me, the biggest question
30:38.0
you know, when I wrote the book
30:40.0
The Rise of Duterte, the biggest question I had
30:42.0
of course I have to probably have a sequel
30:44.0
now, but the question I had was
30:46.0
was not that Duterte,
30:48.0
someone like Duterte won in 2016.
30:50.0
The biggest question I had was
30:52.0
why someone like Duterte did not come earlier?
30:54.0
Because in a country
30:58.0
families take home
31:00.0
three-fourths of newly
31:02.0
created growth, you're asking
31:04.0
for political disaster. It's
31:06.0
you're asking for trouble.
31:08.0
Oh, and by the way, it's also a country
31:10.0
where political dynasties control 80%
31:12.0
of elected office.
31:16.0
this is a mockery
31:18.0
of any claim to being
31:20.0
a progressive democratic
31:22.0
nation, right? So, again, kudos
31:24.0
to President Aquino for getting, you know,
31:26.0
like, you know, like
31:28.0
squeezing the most out of the available lemon
31:30.0
or whatever you had it. But we needed
31:32.0
something bigger, something more radical
31:34.0
and different. And the radical
31:36.0
option became Duterte, and that
31:38.0
was unfortunate because I felt
31:40.0
that was not the right radical option.
31:42.0
It was the wrong radical option as
31:44.0
most of us got to know later on.
31:46.0
I mean, look at this economic performance,
31:48.0
five quarters of recession from
31:50.0
2020 to 2021, worst
31:52.0
in Southeast Asia. Look
31:54.0
at this performance in the pandemic,
31:56.0
worst in Southeast Asia. Look at
31:58.0
more than 100 children killed by
32:00.0
2020 during AJK's,
32:02.0
thousands of other suspicious deaths,
32:04.0
worst anywhere in the post-colonial
32:06.0
world or at least in Southeast Asia.
32:08.0
I mean, ICC is already in the country
32:10.0
conducting investigation right now. They're not
32:12.0
doing that in any other of our major
32:14.0
neighbors because we got the worst situation
32:16.0
in terms of the AJK situation. And I
32:18.0
can go on and on and on about the shortcomings
32:22.0
supposedly radical option,
32:24.0
wrong radical option, unfortunately.
32:26.0
But the reality is that we do need
32:28.0
a radical reorganization
32:30.0
of the Philippine society and economy
32:32.0
because what we have right now is
32:34.0
not providing the wealth,
32:36.0
is not providing the opportunities
32:38.0
that ordinary Filipinos deserve.
32:40.0
So I'm happy that some of my middle class friends,
32:42.0
some of my internationally educated friends,
32:44.0
were happy and successful during the AKINA years,
32:46.0
but also think about tens of millions
32:48.0
of Filipinos who are still
32:50.0
under contractual works, who didn't have
32:52.0
security of tenure. Think of
32:54.0
millions of precariat and proletariat
32:56.0
Filipinos, right, who didn't see
32:58.0
a significant improvement in their living conditions.
33:00.0
And that is why I don't believe
33:02.0
that Marcos Jr., as he stands,
33:04.0
is still that kind of solution to our country.
33:10.0
be surprised that, again,
33:12.0
some sort of radical politics could come back.
33:16.0
Maybe no longer Duterte, but something else.
33:18.0
If we do not get to the bottom of the problem.
33:20.0
So the political dynasty problem,
33:22.0
we always talk about that.
33:24.0
So I don't even need to post it.
33:26.0
But there's this very interesting article,
33:28.0
I think it's by Dean Tihanki.
33:32.0
I had the, actually I have the graph
33:34.0
and numbers here. I mean, grabe yung
33:36.0
Filipinas, di ba? Like, political dynasty
33:38.0
is like 60, 70, 80
33:40.0
percent of elected offices.
33:42.0
That's crazy. No other,
33:44.0
I think of democracy as a situation like that.
33:46.0
But even worse is our economy.
33:48.0
How concentrated growth is.
33:50.0
So, having said that, again,
33:52.0
this is how you do political analysis.
33:54.0
You don't say, President A is heaven.
33:56.0
President B is hell.
33:58.0
President C is heaven.
34:00.0
That's kid stuff. That's puerile.
34:02.0
A proper analysis looks at the 50 shades.
34:06.0
Looks at 10 different metrics.
34:08.0
And then, accordingly, makes a judgment
34:12.0
Right? You don't give 0 or 100.
34:14.0
That's kid stuff. Kaya inis na inis ako dun sa mga
34:16.0
political analysts. Anong score mo
34:18.0
kay President nung speech niya?
34:20.0
Zero. Speech niya, 10.
34:22.0
Yung mga ganda. Come on!
34:24.0
Get out of here! Right? That's not mature.
34:26.0
That's puerile. Right? You don't do it that way.
34:30.0
end on this point, mga hameta.
34:32.0
This is why, do not blame our
34:34.0
kababayans. Yung mga bumoto
34:36.0
sa mga candidates.
34:38.0
Nasa tingin niyo hindi karapat-dapat
34:40.0
dun sa position. A lot of that vote
34:42.0
was out of anger, grievance, and frustration.
34:44.0
And anger, grievance, and frustration
34:46.0
because when we had relatively good
34:50.0
didn't. They really did not
34:52.0
fundamentally change the nature of the
34:54.0
Philippine society. They did not fundamentally
34:56.0
change the extreme inequalities
34:58.0
bedeviling our economy
35:00.0
and our political system. So, surprise
35:02.0
ba kayo that people are skeptical of
35:04.0
democracy? Surprise kayo that more and more people
35:06.0
are open to authoritarian, demagogic
35:08.0
leaders? You shouldn't be surprised.
35:10.0
And to dismiss that as,
35:12.0
oh, disinformation lang yan. And I mean,
35:14.0
of course there's disinformation, but why would people
35:16.0
fall for disinformation if the
35:18.0
education system is strong, if people are
35:20.0
happy with the economic conditions, if
35:22.0
political dynasties are dominating all offices?
35:24.0
And by the way, to be clear,
35:26.0
the concentration of political dynasties
35:28.0
in the Congress actually worsened
35:32.0
under you-know-who president.
35:34.0
So, there was absolutely no
35:36.0
solution to the fundamental problems
35:38.0
facing the country. But
35:40.0
again, having said that, we have to give
35:42.0
credit where credit is due. I think
35:44.0
in terms of at least building the fundamentals and making
35:46.0
the most out of what was there, I think Aquino
35:48.0
deserved some credit for that.
35:50.0
And for that reason, we're a little
35:52.0
bit more yellow. Don't be ashamed of that. And if
35:54.0
the mga ka-DDS natin dyan
35:56.0
are trying to troll you, troll them back!
35:58.0
Do what I do! Right? Bakit?
36:00.0
Diba? Who are they to tell
36:02.0
us what should we wear, what color is good,
36:04.0
what color is not good? Wala sila moral ascendancy
36:06.0
whatsoever. Alright?
36:08.0
On that note, thank you very much.
36:10.0
Mga ka-meta, sorry may just slow yung
36:12.0
bibuild ng argument natin dito
36:14.0
because not only, you know, this is a
36:16.0
complicated issue,
36:18.0
but, you know, I'm not at my
36:20.0
best 100% to be honest. Alright?
36:22.0
So, thank you very much for your patience,
36:24.0
for your love, and your support.
36:26.0
And hopefully, we can catch up soon, God willing,
36:28.0
after Christmas. Please, wag
36:30.0
kayong magalit sakin. Wag niyo ako i-troll
36:32.0
masyado. Or sige, troll niyo ako. Maganda
36:34.0
naman yung engagement. Basta,
36:36.0
tuloy-tuloy lang ang laban at
36:38.0
pagmamahal namin sa inyo. And
36:40.0
hopefully, God willing, if we have time,
36:42.0
we'll do another year-ender. Tingnan natin kung wala
36:44.0
si El. Kahit kami niya R&R
36:46.0
na lang ulit. Alright? On that note,
36:48.0
thank you very much, God bless. Please, wag kayong magalit. You see,
36:50.0
this is how I analyze different administrations.
36:52.0
I can look at many angles. Obviously, what I did
36:54.0
in the past 40 minutes, 30 minutes, whatever,
36:56.0
it's just a snippet. If you bother
36:58.0
to read my works, books, whatever, you can
37:00.0
see that I go through the whole gambit, right?
37:02.0
To properly analyze the record
37:04.0
of individual presidents and
37:06.0
administration because this is how
37:08.0
you do analysis. This is the proper way
37:10.0
of doing analysis. Hindi yung, eto,
37:12.0
ay demonyo, eto, yung hell, yung mga gano'n.
37:14.0
What are we? I mean,
37:16.0
we're not 12 years old.
37:18.0
And mature democracy doesn't
37:20.0
go from 0 to 10, right?
37:22.0
It's a matter of just getting the best outcome
37:24.0
possible in each elections. And,
37:28.0
Everyone is entitled to make mistakes
37:30.0
in their life. We're just human beings. So do
37:32.0
not judge people just because they voted for a
37:34.0
candidate you feel was horrible. Even if
37:36.0
that candidate indeed was horrible, right?
37:38.0
Especially if you see them
37:40.0
already showing a certain
37:42.0
degree of self-awareness, introspection,
37:44.0
and a certain degree of
37:46.0
remorse. Ako, I'm a kind person.
37:50.0
time, just because
37:52.0
a certain president was bad
37:54.0
doesn't make your preferred candidate
37:56.0
necessarily a good one. We never
37:58.0
know. Never know. Baka kung nanalo naman
38:00.0
yung kandidata niyo, balpak din. So,
38:02.0
you know, I'm just saying, keep an open mind.
38:04.0
Do not demonize other Filipinos.
38:08.0
compassion. Compassion and critical thinking.
38:10.0
Right? Marami sa atin.
38:12.0
I'm desperate for
38:14.0
real dramatic change. Real good
38:16.0
change. Not just real change, but
38:18.0
real good change. So don't be surprised
38:20.0
if populism will be back again sooner than
38:22.0
later. In the meantime,
38:26.0
Alright! Si Junior, our
38:28.0
president! Party!
38:30.0
Okay? Relax lang tayo dyan.
38:32.0
Okay. On that note, thank you very much.
38:34.0
God bless and advance. Merry Christmas.
