01:49.9
look like the anti-establishment
01:55.1
Parang the idea is that
01:55.9
pag sinabi mo or in-argue mo ng
01:57.9
Aquino's and Marcos's, all of them are the same
02:00.2
you're essentially saying they're all establishment
02:03.7
imperial Manila politicians
02:05.4
therefore the real, real alternative
02:08.0
the real great leader is
02:09.7
si Tatay, di ba? Parang ganun yung line of
02:12.0
argumentation and
02:13.5
to be honest, I mean
02:17.7
putting Marcos and Aquino in the
02:20.0
same sentence when it comes
02:21.9
to fighting for the West Philippine Sea
02:24.1
but even if I were to
02:26.0
concede that, ang sasabihin ko dyan
02:27.9
is malaki pa rin yung pakakaiba
02:29.7
ni President Aquino from
02:31.9
President Marcos Jr. at least so far
02:33.5
and I think it's quite important to
02:35.9
put the legacy of former President
02:41.3
Wala na. Aquino III
02:44.0
and Marcos Jr. into context
02:45.8
So first, kay Marcos Jr., his
02:47.5
term is, you know, he's
02:49.9
yet to hit the midway point
02:51.9
but the reality is that
02:53.6
first year pa lang niya President Aquino III
02:56.2
si Pinoy, we already
02:58.1
knew, no? We already knew na
02:59.7
anong gusto niya mangyari sa buhay, no?
03:01.6
Very clear siya dun sa kanyang objectives
03:03.5
especially yung kanyang daan matuwid
03:05.3
agenda. Now, we can
03:08.0
have a long conversation about how effective
03:09.8
how sincerely, how effectively
03:12.1
that was implemented
03:13.8
but at least it was pretty clear what he stood for
03:15.9
you know? And at least there was
03:17.9
an attempt at good governance agenda. I'm not
03:20.0
sure we're seeing that yet, right?
03:22.8
let's go back to this issue because
03:25.5
there's a reason why I'm also wearing yellow now
03:27.9
this is not necessarily an expression
03:29.8
of solidarity with
03:31.9
One Camp. But I just noticed na
03:37.3
for six years parang
03:39.7
never ako nagsuot ng yellow
03:41.6
except kung Brazil, right?
03:43.6
And the yellow of Brazil
03:45.6
national team, yung mga football jersey natin
03:47.7
yung mga basketball jersey natin, medyo iba siya
03:49.5
dito sa yellow na gano'n. So, actually
03:51.9
just kanina lang naisip ko, bakit ka
03:53.5
usutin ko talagang itong yellow shirt
03:56.0
na yan? Because yellow is really a
03:57.9
beautiful color. It's a beautiful color
04:00.1
It's a color of hope, it's a color of
04:01.9
energy, it's a color of sun, right?
04:04.2
In a way, it's a color of life, no?
04:06.0
And I noticed one of the things that happened
04:08.1
really under the previous administration
04:10.0
was this demonization
04:11.9
of not only a certain
04:13.7
political camp, not only
04:15.8
demonization of a former president
04:17.5
but the demonization of the beautiful,
04:19.8
glorious, gorgeous color, which is yellow.
04:21.9
Right? And I think bilang mga Pinoy
04:23.7
sa nasya, this is a color that we would love.
04:26.0
This is a color that, you know, you feel
04:27.9
very comfortable with, no?
04:33.8
it's time for us to wear more yellow
04:36.0
I mean, that's what I'm gonna say.
04:37.5
And it's time for us to also
04:40.1
not be on the defensive.
04:42.4
To not be on the defensive and actually
04:43.8
take it to the other side, no?
04:45.7
Especially dun sa mga makapili club.
04:47.7
Makapili school of diplomacy, makapili
04:49.7
economics, makapili
04:51.9
school of tatay digong, yung mga ganun.
04:53.9
I'm sorry, makapili school.
04:55.8
Alam nyo na, okay. No, no, no. Ito, ito.
05:01.8
you criticize Duterte
05:03.1
doesn't mean na automatically dilawan ka.
05:06.5
In the same way na
05:12.6
is doing something that
05:13.9
some supporters of Aquino like
05:15.6
doesn't mean that Marcos Jr. is the same as Aquino.
05:18.1
Right? And this idea of the enemy
05:19.9
of my enemy is my friend.
05:21.9
So, it doesn't make sense.
05:23.2
It is clear that the unity is falling apart.
05:25.1
So, may hiduan sa pagkita ng mga Marcos and Dutertes.
05:28.5
Pero, not necessarily
05:29.7
dapat ang gagawin natin dito is
05:31.2
ilalump si Marcos and Aquino into the same camp.
05:33.8
So, how do you resolve
05:39.2
My argument is very simple.
05:41.4
My argument is very simple. At yun yung naisip ko
05:43.1
kakapan habang medyo nag-recover pa tayo, no?
05:45.3
Sabi ko, actually,
05:48.3
because si Duterte
05:49.7
isang malaking aberration,
05:51.9
he's just such an aberration.
05:54.3
Such an, you know, outside the,
05:56.3
you know, beyond the pale
05:57.5
kind of political figure in Philippine history.
06:00.2
Now, of course, for some people, that makes him fantastic.
06:02.7
But for some other people,
06:04.2
it's like, wow, that makes him kehoror.
06:06.8
The point is that he was just so outside
06:08.3
the curve that he
06:09.6
makes other Filipino presidents
06:15.7
Because he's an anti-establishment,
06:18.0
demagogic figure, right?
06:20.4
Suddenly, si BBM,
06:21.9
may mukhang moderate establishment
06:26.0
And therefore, BBM suddenly looks
06:28.1
much more similar to Aquino.
06:29.9
So if this were to a spectrum,
06:32.0
Digong will be all the way here,
06:34.0
right? This is like 50 shades of gray,
06:36.6
light gray to super dark gray.
06:38.7
Like, Digong is all the way there,
06:40.1
close to dark, super dark black
06:41.9
color. And then, like,
06:44.5
Aquino is, let's argue,
06:46.0
for the sake of ideological differentiation,
06:48.4
if I can. And Dito sa
06:51.9
And then, si BBM,
06:53.7
mas malapit kay Pinoy kaysa kay Digong.
06:56.1
Right? But that doesn't
06:58.2
mean Pinoy and Marcus Jr.
07:00.5
are necessarily the same.
07:01.7
It's just that yung isa'y sobrang layo sa lahat,
07:04.6
naging mukhang yung dalawain
07:05.7
na sa isang kampo. Right?
07:07.5
So that's the way I visualize
07:11.8
line of attack na nangyayin kita natin ngayon.
07:15.2
I would consider that
07:17.1
when it comes to some of his basic
07:19.6
sensibilities, right?
07:21.9
Marcus Jr. is much closer to, and I think
07:24.0
this is where I agree with my good colleagues,
07:25.8
Elizandro Claudio. Marcus Jr. is
07:28.0
ironically your traditional
07:29.8
post-Marcus Filipino president.
07:32.3
Right? He is operating
07:34.3
within the quote-unquote
07:35.8
Aquino constitution. Right?
07:38.2
So far, we're not seeing a direct
07:40.1
assault on that, but things could change
07:41.8
as conversations over
07:43.7
constitutional change gain steam,
07:46.2
especially after 2025 elections.
07:50.0
looks like a very traditional post-Marcusian
07:51.9
etsa regime president
07:53.4
while Duterte was so outside.
07:56.7
You know, just so
07:57.7
outside the box, beyond the pale,
08:00.9
in a completely different,
08:02.1
you know, if there's a quadrant here,
08:03.7
sobrang outside there, it makes
08:05.9
BBM and Aquino look like they're inside the same
08:07.9
box. But that's not true.
08:09.9
It's the aberration of Duterte that makes
08:12.0
other presidents look similar even
08:13.9
though those other presidents are
08:15.6
significantly different from each other. Right?
08:18.2
But as I said, there's a propaganda
08:20.1
value to that argument.
08:21.9
Kasi pag sinabi mo ay Pinoy at Aquino
08:24.0
ay similar, isang kampo lang sila,
08:26.5
clearly ang ginagawa mo is
08:28.0
you're glorifying Digong
08:31.8
anti-establishment
08:33.8
genuine alternative
08:35.3
candidate. Now, of course, si Digong himself,
08:38.1
I don't know if he'll be in a position to run for
08:39.9
presidency or even any high office
08:41.9
anytime soon, but the daughter
08:43.8
is still there. The vice president is still there.
08:45.9
So, ang basa ko dito, may ganyan
08:48.2
na elemento nangyari dyan. May ganyan
08:49.9
propaganda para i-react,
08:51.9
may energize yung
08:53.1
atento pre, hindi atento dun sa
08:55.9
Christmas convoy sa way. Pero yung
08:57.6
atento pre, you know,
08:59.8
tayo talaga, real change is coming,
09:02.5
populist kind of mobilization.
09:04.3
Is it gonna work? No, I completely doubt
09:05.9
that. Right? And kaya,
09:07.5
syempre, mga response natin sa mga
09:09.8
kaibigan natin is mostly sarcastic.
09:12.3
Right? Yung mga tipong
09:13.5
sabi na, syempre, they wanna say Digong
09:15.7
was exceptional, he had such a high approval
09:17.7
rating, etc. Which is true, right? But
09:19.8
I can give you a whole host of very questionable
09:24.0
so, and, you know, even more questionable
09:25.9
ones, who also have very high approval ratings.
09:28.0
There's a very, there's a very,
09:32.0
in fact, I would say it's an inverse relationship, right?
09:34.7
Yung relationship between
09:35.9
popularity and competence. The two
09:38.0
do not necessarily go hand in hand.
09:39.8
Sometimes, actually, the best presidents are very
09:41.8
unpopular because doing the right
09:43.9
thing is very unpopular most of the time.
09:46.7
So, popularity is not
09:48.1
necessarily indicator of merit
09:50.0
and competence, right?
09:51.9
And, this is the argument I've
09:53.9
made that, you know, that
09:55.6
did not sit well with a lot of our friends,
09:58.3
it's also hard to trust
10:02.1
surveys in climates
10:03.9
of fear, right? So, when I hear
10:06.0
about surveys' popularity of Putin,
10:08.6
it's like, yeah, let's say someone
10:10.0
calls you in Russia and says,
10:11.6
hello, I'm, you know, I'm Mr.,
10:13.7
I don't know, Kadirov, calling you from,
10:15.7
you know, I wanna know your opinion
10:17.6
of our great leader, Mr. Putin.
10:19.9
Do you like him? We do not like him.
10:21.9
If you're in Russia, you're crazy to say
10:23.8
I don't like Putin over phone, right?
10:25.7
Or if someone knocks on your door, hello, my name
10:27.9
is, you know, my, you know what I'm saying?
10:30.4
In a climate of fear,
10:34.0
psychologically and sometimes more than psychologically
10:36.1
already manipulated, already
10:37.8
self-censored, right?
10:39.9
Now, we're not in a Putin-esque
10:42.5
dictatorship situation.
10:43.9
I always argue that Duterte was not even competent
10:46.0
enough to be a dictator, but the reality
10:48.1
is that the climate of fear was always
10:50.0
a factor. Now, that doesn't mean that he was
10:51.9
not popular. I still believe that President
10:53.9
Duterte was popular,
10:55.9
but so were other presidents at a certain point
10:57.8
in time. I mean, most of our presidents had 50,
10:60.0
60 percent approval ratings,
11:01.6
you know, throughout their term in office,
11:03.9
right? Of course, Duterte ended on, you know,
11:06.2
but even the bigger argument
11:08.0
is even if I were to grant that he was
11:09.9
genuinely popular and had nothing to do
11:11.9
with fear and all of that, so what?
11:13.8
So what? I mean, just because you're popular doesn't
11:15.8
mean you're right, right? As I said, good
11:17.7
presidents tend to be not so popular
11:19.4
because doing the right thing makes you unpopular.
11:21.9
Now, having said all of those things,
11:25.9
mag-focus tayo sa dalawang bagay, no?
11:27.7
Unang-una, again,
11:29.9
sarcastic ako, diba? Yan ang problema. Hindi na
11:31.8
i-guess ng tao na sarcastic tayo. I mean,
11:34.2
yan ang problema ng mga tao
11:35.8
ng ibang dyan. Unang-una,
11:37.8
isn't it ironic na parating sinisabi
11:40.0
ni Digong na weak leader at
11:41.6
spoiled brat, etong isang to?
11:45.7
pag tinignan mo yung West Philippine Sea
11:47.6
disputes, it's actually
11:49.9
President Marco Jr. who is
11:53.1
courage and tenacity in dealing
11:55.9
with China than the previous president
11:58.0
who was like, wala tayong magagawa, let's
11:59.9
be meek, let's be humble, yung mga
12:01.8
purong mga ganyan-ganyan. And of course, if you want to
12:03.9
see a proper analysis of the context
12:05.8
of Marco Jr. going, quote-unquote,
12:08.0
toe-to-toe with China, and talking
12:09.8
about new paradigm, please check out my latest article
12:12.1
on the Asian Times, why Marco Jr.
12:13.8
wants to go toe-to-toe with China.
12:15.6
Philippine President has
12:17.9
defied expectations. He would follow
12:20.0
his predecessor in kow-towing
12:21.9
to China in the South China Sea.
12:23.9
Salamat sa mga editors natin dyan.
12:25.8
Hindi akong gumawa ng mga subtitle
12:28.1
na yan, but please check out this article
12:29.9
you'll see how I explain that actually,
12:32.0
ironically, Marco Jr. has turned out far,
12:34.3
far, far, far more
12:35.5
confrontational towards China and less, less,
12:40.0
as some people would have suggested.
12:42.0
And if anything, between Duterte
12:44.2
and Marco Jr., alam natin sinong mas matapang
12:46.0
sa West Philippines. At sinong mas
12:47.7
ganyan-ganyan sa China.
12:50.3
Again, hindi po US.
12:51.9
Ang gustong, you know, magsakop,
12:54.1
you know, hindi ang US ang sumasakop
12:56.0
dito sa West Philippines. Let's be
12:58.0
very clear about that. So, huwag kayong magpagulay.
13:00.3
Ay, pero, pero, what about
13:02.1
West? What about ganyan?
13:04.0
If si Digong, if Digong
13:06.0
was really against all imperialist
13:08.2
powers in history, bakit wala
13:10.1
siyang sinaming masama sa Japan
13:11.8
ever since? Pansin nyo, si
13:13.9
Digong, sobrang beshi siya sa Japan.
13:16.0
Well, guess what? If you want to talk about Balangiga
13:18.0
bells 100 years ago, why are you not
13:20.1
talking about what imperial Japan,
13:21.9
horrible things they did to us during the Second World War
13:23.9
in the 1940s, which is far
13:25.9
more recent than the Balangiga bells
13:27.7
situation? So, doon pala nakita mo na,
13:30.0
walang basihan itong argument ni Digong na
13:32.0
anti-Western, anti-imperialist.
13:35.1
Eh, kung galit ka sa West
13:36.1
for what they did 100 years ago, dapat galit
13:38.1
ka rin sa Japan sa ginawa nila 70 years ago.
13:40.2
O, bakit ang beshi-beshi mo sa Japan?
13:42.1
See? Huli ko sila eh. Huli ko
13:44.0
yung mga ganyan, mga ano eh, mga ganyan
13:45.7
pa-effect-effect na anti-colonial,
13:48.3
post-colonial effect. Alam na natin yan,
13:50.2
yung mga fake na ganyan. Kasi,
13:51.9
fake nung ganyang 6 months,
13:53.8
ayusin ko yung mga problema, mga fake na ganyan.
13:56.0
Anyway, basahin yung mga kameta,
13:57.8
na-explain natin dyan. So, I think
13:59.9
President Marco Jr. deserves
14:01.8
far more credit for taking
14:05.7
dyan sa West Philippine Sea.
14:07.8
We can have a long discussion about whether this is the best way
14:10.0
forward, but my contention is
14:12.0
if we do not stand
14:14.1
our ground, we're not gonna get respect.
14:16.2
And if we don't get respect, we're just gonna be bullied
14:18.0
right and left. And,
14:20.1
again, ah, again, dun sa
14:21.8
makapili, mga kaibigan natin
14:23.9
ng mga kapili club, yung mga makapili
14:25.7
economics, school of diplomacy,
14:27.7
yung mga gusto mag-mention ng Vietnam.
14:29.6
By the way, Vietnam, it's true, is getting billions
14:31.9
of dollars of investments from China,
14:33.9
but that's not because Vietnam is suddenly
14:36.0
giving up their claims, or
14:37.9
not standing up to China
14:39.4
sa South China Sea or East Sea.
14:41.8
Actually, Vietnam made it
14:43.6
absolutely clear, right, during
14:45.9
yung pagbisita ni Xi Jinping
14:48.0
sa Hanoi recently, that
14:49.6
sovereignty and territorial integrity has to be
14:51.7
respected. So, ang China,
14:53.7
get sila, matapang tong Vietnam, di nila
14:55.7
pwedeng buli-bulin lang. They just have to
14:57.5
accept it, grudgingly, that they have to deal with
14:59.5
Vietnam as it is. And they're not gonna
15:01.4
have things easy. And the reason why
15:03.6
Chinese invest in Vietnam is because of
15:05.5
geography. Because Vietnam is
15:07.6
so close to the Perival Delta, the
15:09.4
Greater Bay Area production networks of China.
15:11.9
It's because Vietnam has direct
15:13.4
access to Western markets. It has
15:15.8
a free trade agreement with the United States,
15:17.7
free trade agreement with the European Union.
15:20.0
It is part of the
15:21.7
PTPP, with Japan, Australia,
15:23.7
and a number of other countries. So, if you're a
15:25.6
Chinese investor, it's good to have
15:27.7
a foothold in Vietnam. Not to mention
15:29.7
Vietnam has a sufficiently robust
15:31.7
industrial manufacturing base already
15:33.6
and a far more decent infrastructure
15:35.8
and regulatory environment compared
15:37.8
to, let's be honest, compared to
15:39.6
Philippines, for that matter. So,
15:41.3
please lang, huwag niyo i-spin yan, right?
15:43.8
So, I think President Marco Junis is correct
15:45.8
to insist that hindi
15:47.7
pwede yung magpapaganyan-ganyan
15:49.7
lang tayo, di ba? We have to stand our
15:51.7
own ground. We have to
15:52.8
leverage our multilateral
15:55.9
engagements. And President Marco Junis
15:57.8
will be visiting an ASEAN country soon
15:59.5
to also build bilateral cooperation
16:01.9
with some of the key ASEAN countries. As I said,
16:03.9
ASEAN 10, just north of useless
16:05.8
in terms of helping us at West Philippine Sea.
16:08.2
But some of the key ASEAN countries could be
16:09.6
helpful to us. But let me go to the last part
16:11.8
really of this discussion,
16:13.3
which I think is very, very important,
16:16.2
mga hameta. Because
16:17.0
if you look at it,
16:19.9
if you really look at it,
16:27.6
how should I put it?
16:29.7
I have been very critical
16:30.9
of the liberals in this country.
16:33.6
I've been very critical of
16:35.3
liberal reformist administrations in this country.
16:37.6
Although, admittedly, I was always
16:42.2
understanding of the Ramos administration
16:46.0
starting point than perhaps the other
16:47.9
liberal reformist administration. But
16:49.3
regardless of that, I mean,
16:51.7
I mean, look at it.
16:53.3
Kaya, natatawa ako dun sa mga
16:58.0
dilawang, yung, yung, yung, like,
16:59.9
hello, I mean, if you guys,
17:01.6
mag-literate kayo, mag-google lang kayo,
17:03.4
hindi naman mahirap mag-google, just look at all of those
17:05.6
critical things I wrote about the previous
17:07.6
administration throughout
17:09.6
the years. No, I mean,
17:11.9
you know, I was actually critical
17:13.9
of the Aquino administration's
17:15.4
South China Sea policy, sa aking palagay.
17:18.1
Masyado siyang confrontational towards
17:21.7
Without, you know, at the
17:23.8
same time, making sure we do our assignment
17:25.7
on the ground. Kaya, eh, kung tignan nyo itong article
17:27.7
ko na Philippines Loveside at South China Sea Strategy,
17:29.9
sabi ko, puro kayong mga legal
17:31.7
arbitration, puro kayong mga diplomatic,
17:33.6
ek-ek. Ang kulang sa inyo,
17:35.7
hindi nyo, hindi nyo pinapalakas
17:37.6
yung fortifying position natin on the ground.
17:40.0
Yung airstrip natin sa pag-asa,
17:41.7
mukhang kawawa. Yung share of Madrid
17:43.8
dyan sa second Thomas Shull,
17:45.8
wala, dilapidated na, it's falling apart.
17:47.8
So, okay, maganda yan, magpadala
17:49.8
kayo ng mga tao, magja-junket-junket kayo dyan,
17:51.7
sa international courts, na, hindi na ma, in fairness,
17:53.5
they didn't do that. But you get what I'm saying? Like, okay, it's fantastic,
17:56.0
go to international court, blah, blah, blah.
17:57.8
But you have to do your assignment.
17:59.6
You have to fortify your position on the ground.
18:01.9
Wala sa, yung in Shull, wala sa
18:03.9
sa pag-asa. In fairness,
18:06.1
the administration that started doing that
18:08.1
again for the first time since
18:09.7
Marcos Sr. is the Gong's administration.
18:12.5
Lorenzano was the one who oversaw
18:13.8
the fortification. So, I
18:16.0
have been critical of the previous,
18:17.7
and I raised this issue with the late secretary,
18:20.0
foreign secretary,
18:20.9
Del Rosario, and his argument
18:23.1
was, oh, we have to have moral high ground.
18:24.8
And I disagree with that. I don't think,
18:28.7
now, Mitchell exclusive, now we filed for
18:30.9
an arbitration award, and then we essentially
18:33.0
tie our own hands at the back,
18:34.9
considering we were already behind the curve. Because,
18:36.8
actually, legally speaking, you can talk to
18:38.9
any international law expert. I had to
18:41.0
talk to many international law experts from
18:42.9
all around the world when I was writing my book,
18:44.8
Asia's New Battlefield. It's absolutely clear,
18:47.7
changing the nature of disputed
18:49.1
features is against international law.
18:50.9
But fortifying what's already
18:52.8
there without changing the nature of disputed features,
18:55.1
that's not against international law.
18:57.2
So, yung pag-asa, isla na yun eh.
18:59.5
It's already a rock at the very
19:00.8
least. So, fixing the air
19:02.7
strip there is not against international law.
19:05.1
Alright? But if ginawa mo siyang
19:07.0
super-Giancading island, katulad
19:08.8
ng ginawa mo ng China, that's illegal.
19:10.9
And that goes against international law. So, I just felt
19:12.9
masyadong timid yung ating
19:14.9
policy on the ground.
19:16.6
I was also very critical of the economic
19:18.7
policy of the economic
19:20.9
administration, for instance, right?
19:23.3
You know, one of the things
19:24.7
I always focus, and then there's
19:26.7
you know, yung mga economist friend natin, yung mga
19:28.8
Google Trends Club friends
19:30.8
natin, dyan, yan. Yung isa dyan,
19:33.4
nung may mga nag-quote
19:35.0
sa akin na, sabi nga ni Hey Darian, ganito yung
19:38.8
income generation sa Philippines. Sabi niya, saan niya
19:40.6
yung ginawa? Ayan, kinorek ko siya tuloy.
19:42.7
Yan kasi, hindi kasi nagbabasa eh.
19:48.6
richest families in the Philippines
19:50.5
Forbes wealth list, accounted
19:55.0
of the country's gross domestic
19:58.4
So 76% of every 6%
20:00.6
growth every year. That's just
20:02.7
short of 5%. So kung
20:04.6
nag-6% growth ang Pilipinas every
20:06.6
year, this is in early 2010s,
20:10.7
to 40 richest families.
20:12.6
This is the worst in Asia.
20:14.9
Compared with Thailand, where the
20:16.6
top 40 richest accounted for
20:19.8
less than half of the
20:22.6
Philippines. And look at Thailand, ang gulo
20:24.3
ng politics nila.
20:26.1
Malaysia is only 5.6%
20:28.6
and Japan is 2.8%.
20:30.9
Alright? Ipupost ko dito.
20:32.6
Para makita niya, nagkakaroon ako malala
20:34.2
yung situation sa Pilipinas
20:36.2
when it comes to yung control ng mga
20:38.2
oligarchies sa ating economic
20:42.0
I'll explain to you shortly. Of course, you're gonna say,
20:44.3
it's 2011, 12, kakapasok lang ni
20:46.3
Pinoy. You're blaming me, blah blah blah.
20:48.7
But, first of all,
20:49.8
let's get the facts straight, okay?
20:52.3
This is the number, okay?
20:56.3
unequal nation in
20:58.1
Asia and one of the worst on Earth.
21:02.5
40 richest families
21:06.3
of newly created growth. Now, a lot of people
21:08.4
who are not very, you know, subtle
21:10.2
in reading, they thought 76%
21:12.8
of entire wealth in the Philippines
21:14.4
is owned by 40 families. Not necessarily.
21:16.7
This just says 76%
21:19.2
of newly created growth.
21:19.4
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.6
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.6
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.8
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.8
So, kung every year
21:22.1
dumagdag tayo ng 20 billion dollars
21:24.8
sa ating GDP, gross domestic product,
21:29.0
close to 15 billion dollars
21:30.7
of that, goes to only 40 families.
21:33.5
Right? Only 40 families.
21:35.1
And back then, Henry C.
21:36.8
and Lucio Tan were both worth
21:38.8
a combined 13.6 billion dollars.
21:41.4
Right? In a country where
21:42.5
tens of millions of people live under
21:44.4
the poverty line. Our situation
21:46.6
is twice worse, more than twice
21:48.8
worse than Thailand,
21:49.8
And, already a very unequal
21:51.6
and political unstable country.
21:52.9
A lot of political instability in Thailand
21:54.4
has to do with inequality of growth.
21:57.1
You go to Bangkok, very well-developed
21:59.5
metropolis, and then there's no other
22:01.1
major city in Thailand of comparison.
22:03.1
I don't think Chiang Mai
22:05.4
is anywhere close to that.
22:07.3
Chiang Mai to Bangkok is like, I don't know,
22:09.1
Baguio to Manila. I mean, I love Baguio,
22:11.1
I'm proud of it, but it's not really comparison.
22:13.8
Right? They barely have a
22:15.2
Cebu to Manila, right?
22:16.7
Forget about, I don't know,
22:18.5
Los Angeles to New York.
22:19.8
So, it's a very imbalanced and
22:21.3
equal country. We're twice worse
22:23.6
than Thailand. More than twice worse.
22:25.4
And, Malaysia is only 5.6 percent.
22:27.6
So, Malaysia also has its own oligarchs.
22:29.4
Mahathir has its own oligarchs, including the guy
22:31.3
who built the Petronas Towers, right?
22:33.8
That guy behind it, before Petronas
22:36.0
had to bail it out, that guy was known as
22:37.9
an oligarch of Mahathir, right?
22:40.7
But, Malaysia is only 5.6 percent.
22:42.8
Japan is not even 3 percent.
22:45.8
So, we're like more than 25 times worse
22:49.6
than Japan, already a very wealthy country
22:51.8
with a per capita income of 8 times us
22:53.8
in terms of inequality of distribution of new wealth.
22:58.5
So, I hope people understand.
23:01.4
Ako, medyo critical ako sa akin ng administration
23:05.7
because sa tingin ko, masyado silang standard
23:08.6
sa kanilang policies.
23:10.1
They did not come out with any, you know,
23:13.4
really outside the box and important
23:16.3
industrial trade policies to make the Philippines a manufacturing country.
23:19.4
Ako, medyo critical ako sa akin ng administration
23:21.4
to make the Philippines a manufacturing power.
23:23.4
Name me a single major industrial policy
23:25.4
that was introduced during the Akin administration
23:27.4
to help us build our own version of VinFast.
23:29.4
Or our own version of, I don't know,
23:31.4
I even, you know, Proton of Malaysia.
23:33.4
Forget about, I don't know, Hyundai or whatever, right?
23:37.4
Industrial policy is the reason why
23:39.4
Vietnam is building its own electric cars right now.
23:41.4
Industrial policy is the reason why.
23:43.4
What is industrial policy?
23:45.4
You coordinate with your oligarchs and big businesses
23:47.4
to push them in the direction to build world-class technology.
23:49.4
We didn't have that.
23:51.4
What we had was standard economic practices
23:54.4
and macroeconomic, macroprudential policies
23:56.4
which did not fundamentally change the structure of the Philippine economy.
24:00.4
Kaya nung bumaba si Aquino,
24:02.4
the Philippines was still, and not,
24:04.4
a country far from being a manufacturing power.
24:07.4
And we're still kulelat among our peers
24:10.4
in terms of attracting investments and all of that.
24:12.4
No? So, that's the reason why I felt
24:14.4
Aquino was doing okay within the existing framework
24:17.4
but he had to go way beyond that.
24:19.4
To really dramatically change the landscape.
24:21.4
That's why I was critical.
24:22.4
Kaya nung mga bobo dyan,
24:24.4
daryan dilawan, etc.
24:26.4
Are you kidding me?
24:27.4
Have you read all of these critical things I've been reading?
24:29.4
Obviously, these people don't read.
24:30.4
But, you know, it's a rhetorical question.
24:32.4
I'm just exposing what kind of fools these people are.
24:35.4
But, you see, that's my point.
24:37.4
Kaya nung I always felt,
24:39.4
you're not going to impress me as a new administration president
24:42.4
unless you have something significant to bring to the table
24:44.4
because the situation is really bad
24:46.4
in terms of inequality of growth.
24:48.4
I was also critical of the Haiyan situation.
24:50.4
Look at this article I wrote,
24:51.4
Philippines Haiyan Tragedy, What Went Wrong.
24:53.4
So, I look at the, you know,
24:56.4
not in a DDS way, you know, critical.
24:59.4
But, you know, in a fair way, based on evidence way, critical.
25:02.4
I also had a number of articles on the Mama Sapano situation.
25:06.4
In fact, I just figured, I had apparently this interview
25:09.4
on Mama Sapano and how I felt that, you know,
25:13.4
that was a big blow to the popularity of former President Aquino and all of that.
25:17.4
So, you can go on and on and find a lot of articles that I wrote
25:20.4
that were quite critical of the Aquino administration and all of that, right?
25:23.4
So, you can check in this article also, I explain things.
25:25.4
But, having said all of those things,
25:28.4
I think Aquino at least got some of the basic things right.
25:31.4
You know, he didn't go really outside the box
25:33.4
and he drew something significant.
25:35.4
But he got one of the basic things right.
25:36.4
And in fact, it was under President Aquino
25:39.4
that we began to make some of the first good steps.
25:43.4
Ayan, yung mga ano natin dyan,
25:45.4
kukuni lang nila itong partner.
25:47.4
Alam mo yung mga hiyan yun na yan.
25:48.4
Tatanggalin nila lahat ng mga sinabi ko kanina.
25:50.4
Kukuni lang nila itong mga partner to.
25:52.4
Alam mo yung mga hiyan yun na yan.
25:53.4
But, let me just be very clear about this.
25:58.4
The whole idea that the Philippines is supposing an Asia's,
26:03.4
a rising tiger in Asia, sobrang annoying yan.
26:08.4
Because I kept on hearing that during the previous administration.
26:11.4
Hmm, salamat kay Tatay Digong. Ano na tayo? Rising Asian tiger, blah, blah.
26:18.4
This was under Pinoy. Alright?
26:20.4
So, this is a Philippine Star article, February 2013.
26:25.4
Alright? Yung mga hiyan yun dyan.
26:26.4
Sinong presidente natin noong 2013? Hindi si Tatay Digong.
26:29.4
Alright? Naka-Dilaw shirt pa yata siya nung panon yan.
26:31.4
Election ba yan noong 2013?
26:33.4
Okay. Hmm, tingnan yung mga elections time.
26:37.4
Yung kasama ni Digong at si Maroz. Okay, anyway.
26:40.4
At interestingly, if you zoom in into this article,
26:46.4
is where this announcement was made.
26:48.4
So, there was this meeting in Davao.
26:52.4
And the person there was Muto Kunishi.
26:56.4
Ito yung hapon na economist who was in charge of the Philippines portfolio sa World Bank.
27:03.4
This is the 2013 Philippine Development Forum.
27:06.4
And it took place in Marco Polo Hotel. Of course, alam nyo naman, diba?
27:10.4
Marco Polo Hotel, you know. Alam mo naman, diba? The whole Davao, the people.
27:14.4
Okay. So, actually dito, nagkaroon ng announcement, inanunsyo, ng World Bank expert,
27:22.4
ng Pilipinas is now considered as a rising Asian tiger economy
27:26.4
because at least, the one good thing, and one important good thing that President Marcos Junior,
27:31.4
sorry, President Aquino, sorry, the third, was able to establish was
27:36.4
just enough stability, just enough good governance signaling, not really fully sufficient.
27:42.4
We can have a long conversation.
27:44.4
To at least make the world think of us as anything but, you know, kind of a sick man of Asia again.
27:52.4
I mean, it just allowed us to get, slowly get rid of that sick man of Asia label.
27:58.4
And it allowed us to be taken more seriously by investors and international community.
28:02.4
And in fairness to President Marcos, ah, President Aquino, thank you, President Marcos.
28:05.4
President Aquino, it was under his term that we had the highest average growth rate
28:10.4
of any president, Philippine President,
28:12.4
in recent memory.
28:13.4
That's a fact that we're gonna get rid of.
28:15.4
Now, does that make him a fantastic president or what?
28:18.4
As I said, for me, a fantastic president is someone who's fundamentally changed the structure of Philippine economy.
28:24.4
So that hindi 40 families take home 5% out of 6% growth.
28:29.4
Right? That's crazy.
28:31.4
Indian situation in Philippines is twice worse than Thailand inequality
28:37.4
and 20 times worse than, I don't know, Malaysia
28:40.4
and 30 times, I don't know, worse than Japan.
28:42.4
That's crazy. Those numbers are crazy.
28:44.4
So you really need a radical president to really put the Philippines on the right path.
28:48.4
But in terms of just getting the most out of what we had,
28:51.4
I think President Aquino did a pretty decent job.
28:54.4
And I think he deserves some credit for that.
28:56.4
That's why I think there's no shame in, you know, folks saying that they voted for Aquino at some point in time
29:03.4
or they supported Aquino at some point in time.
29:05.4
But at the same time, you have to be also open to constructive criticism.
29:10.4
You have to be open to the idea that, you know, we needed even more than that.
29:15.4
And precisely because we're not able to bring about yung massive transformation in the economy,
29:21.4
nagtataka kayo bakit bumutang tao sa isang katulad ni Digong noong 2016?
29:26.4
I mean, for me, the biggest question, you know, when I wrote the book, The Rise of Duterte,
29:31.4
the biggest question I had, of course I have to probably have a sequel now,
29:35.4
but the question I had was, was not that Duterte,
29:38.4
someone like Duterte won in 2016.
29:40.4
The biggest question I had was, why someone like Duterte did not come earlier?
29:44.4
Because in a country where 40 families take home three-fourths of newly created growth,
29:53.4
you're asking for political disaster.
29:55.4
It's, you're asking for trouble.
29:58.4
Oh, and by the way, it's also a country where political dynasties control 80% of elected offices in the legislature.
30:05.4
I mean, this is a mockery.
30:07.4
This is a mockery of any claim to being a progressive democratic nation, right?
30:13.4
So, again, kudos to President Aquino for getting, you know, like,
30:17.4
you know, like squeezing the most out of the available lemon or whatever you had it.
30:22.4
But we needed something bigger, something more radical and different.
30:25.4
And the radical option became Duterte.
30:28.4
And that was unfortunate because I felt that was not the right radical option.
30:32.4
It was the wrong radical option as most of us got to know later on.
30:36.4
I mean, look at this economic performance.
30:38.4
Five quarters of recession from 2020 to 2021.
30:41.4
Worst in Southeast Asia.
30:43.4
Look at his performance in the pandemic.
30:46.4
Worst in Southeast Asia.
30:47.4
Look at more than 100 children killed by 2020 during AJK's.
30:51.4
Thousands of other suspicious deaths.
30:54.4
Worst anywhere in the post-colonial world or at least in Southeast Asia.
30:58.4
I mean, ICC is already in the country conducting investigation right now.
31:01.4
They're not doing that in any other of our major neighbors
31:04.4
because we got the worst economy.
31:06.4
We got the worst situation in terms of the AJK situation.
31:08.4
And I can go on and on and on about the shortcomings of that supposedly radical option.
31:14.4
Wrong radical option, unfortunately.
31:16.4
But the reality is that we do need a radical reorganization of the Philippine society and economy
31:22.4
because what we have right now is not providing the wealth,
31:26.4
is not providing the opportunities that ordinary Filipinos deserve.
31:30.4
So I'm happy that some of my middle-class friends,
31:32.4
some of my internationally educated friends
31:34.4
were happy and successful during the Aquino years.
31:37.4
But also think about tens of millions of Filipinos
31:39.4
who are still under contractual works,
31:41.4
who didn't have security of tenure.
31:43.4
Think of millions of precariat and proletariat Filipinos, right?
31:47.4
Who didn't see a significant improvement in their living conditions.
31:51.4
And that is why I don't believe that
31:53.4
Marcos Jr., as he stands, is still that kind of solution to our country.
32:00.4
And I won't be surprised that, again,
32:02.4
some sort of radical politics could come back down the road,
32:06.4
maybe no longer Duterte but something else,
32:08.4
if we do not get to the bottom of the problem.
32:11.4
So the political dynasty problem, we always talk about that.
32:14.4
So I don't even need to post it.
32:15.4
But there's this very interesting article.
32:17.4
I think it's by Dean Tihanki.
32:23.4
Actually, I have the graph and numbers here.
32:25.4
I mean, grabing Filipinas.
32:27.4
Political dynasties like 60, 70, 80% of elected offices.
32:33.4
No other quote-unquote democracy has a situation like that.
32:36.4
But even worse is our economy.
32:38.4
How concentrated growth is.
32:40.4
So, having said that, again,
32:42.4
this is how you do political analysis.
32:44.4
You don't say President A is heaven,
32:46.4
President B is hell,
32:48.4
President C is heaven.
32:49.4
That's kid stuff. That's puerile.
32:51.4
A proper analysis looks at the 50 shades, right?
32:55.4
Looks at 10 different metrics.
32:57.4
And then, accordingly, makes a judgement of 1 out of 100.
33:02.4
You don't give 0 or 100.
33:03.4
That's kid stuff.
33:04.4
Kaya inis na inis ako dun sa mga political analysts.
33:07.4
Anong score mo kay President nung speech niya?
33:15.4
That's not mature.
33:17.4
You don't do it that way.
33:18.4
At I want to also end on this point, mga hameta.
33:21.4
This is why do not blame our kababayans.
33:25.4
Yung mga bumoto sa mga candidates.
33:28.4
Sa satingin niyo hindi karapat-dapat dun sa position.
33:31.4
A lot of that vote was out of anger, grievance, and frustration.
33:35.4
Ang anger, grievance, and frustration because when we had relatively good leaders, they didn't.
33:41.4
They really did not fundamentally change the nature of the Philippine society.
33:45.4
They did not fundamentally change the extreme inequalities bedeviling our economy and our political system.
33:52.4
So surprise ba kayo that people are skeptical of democracy?
33:55.4
Surprise kayo that more and more people are open to authoritarian, demagogic leaders?
33:59.4
You shouldn't be surprised.
34:01.4
And to dismiss that as, oh, disinformation lang yan.
34:04.4
And I mean, of course there's disinformation, but why would people fall for disinformation
34:07.4
if the education system is strong, if people are happy with the economic conditions,
34:12.4
if political dynasties are not dominating all offices?
34:15.4
And by the way, to be clear, the concentration of political dynasties in the Congress actually worsened in the 2010s
34:22.4
under you-know-who president, right?
34:25.4
So there was absolutely no solution to the fundamental problems facing the country.
34:30.4
But again, having said that, we have to give credit where credit is due.
34:34.4
I think in terms of at least building the fundamentals and making the most out of what was there,
34:37.4
I think Aquino deserved some credit for that.
34:40.4
And for that reason, we're a little bit more yellow.
34:43.4
Don't be ashamed of that.
34:44.4
And if the mga ka-DDS natin dyan are trying to troll you, troll them back.
34:48.4
Do what I do, right? Bakit?
34:51.4
Di ba? Who are they to tell us what should we wear, what color is good, what color is not good?
34:55.4
Wala silang moral ascendancy whatsoever.
34:58.4
On that note, thank you very much.
35:00.4
Mga ka-Meta, sorry, medyo slow yung pagbibuild ng argument natin dito
35:04.4
because not only, you know, this is a complicated issue,
35:07.4
but, you know, I'm not at my best 100% to be honest, alright?
35:12.4
So thank you very much for your patience, for your love, and your support.
35:16.4
And hopefully we can catch up soon, God willing, after Christmas.
35:19.4
Please, huwag kayong magalit sa akin.
35:21.4
Huwag niyo ako i-troll masyado.
35:23.4
Or sige, troll niyo ako. Maganda naman yung engagement.
35:25.4
Basta, tuloy-tuloy lang ang laban at pagmamahal namin sa inyo.
35:29.4
And hopefully, God willing, if we have time, we'll do another year-ender.
35:33.4
Tingnan natin kung wala si El, kahit kami niya R&R na lang ulit.
35:38.4
On that note, thank you very much, God bless.
35:39.4
Please, huwag kayong magalit.
35:40.4
You see, this is how I analyze different administration.
35:42.4
I look at many angles.
35:43.4
Obviously, what I did in the past 40 minutes, 30 minutes, whatever, is just a snippet.
35:47.4
If you bother to read my works, books, whatever, you can see that I go through the whole gambit, right?
35:52.4
To properly analyze the record of individual presidents and administration.
35:57.4
Because this is how you do an analysis.
35:59.4
This is the proper way of doing analysis.
36:01.4
Hindi yung, ito ay demonyo, ito ay anghel, yung mga gano'n.
36:05.4
I mean, we're not 12 years old.
36:08.4
And mature democracy doesn't go from 0 to 10, right?
36:12.4
It's a matter of just getting the best outcome possible in each elections.
36:18.4
Everyone is entitled to make mistakes in their life.
36:21.4
We're just human beings.
36:22.4
So do not judge people just because they voted for a candidate you feel was horrible.
36:26.4
Even if that candidate indeed was horrible, right?
36:29.4
Especially if you see them already showing a certain degree of self-awareness, introspection, and a certain degree of remorse.
36:37.4
Ako, I'm a kind person.
36:39.4
And at the same time, just because a certain president was bad doesn't make your preferred candidate necessarily a good one.
36:48.4
We never know. Never know.
36:49.4
Baka kung nanalo naman yung kandidata niyo, balpak din.
36:52.4
So, you know, I'm just saying, keep an open mind.
36:54.4
Do not demonize other Filipinos.
36:56.4
And understand. Compassion. Compassion.
36:59.4
Compassion and critical thinking, right?
37:01.4
Marami sa ating mga kababayan ay desperate for real dramatic change.
37:06.4
Real good change.
37:07.4
Not just real change, but real good change.
37:09.4
So don't be surprised if populism will be back again sooner than later.
37:13.4
In the meantime, party!
37:16.4
Alright! Si Junior, our president!
37:19.4
Party! Okay? Relax lang tayo dyan.
37:22.4
Okay, on that note, thank you very much.
37:24.4
God bless and advance. Merry Christmas.
