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00:00.0
Ayan na, ayan na, kamusta kayo dyan mga kameta, patapos na ang taon, eto na of course as the year begins to end, magre-reflection tayo ng konti-konti
00:22.1
Medyo kagabi, we're not in our best shape, medyo kita nyo, I'm not still 100% yet, pero dahil mahal namin kayo, isi-share natin yung mga reflection natin habang we're a little bit, you know, under the weather
00:37.3
At of course, isi sa mga reflection natin, reflections natin was, aside from yeah, you have to take care of yourself more, huwag mo i-push sarili mo to the hilt
00:46.9
Is etong, you know, this whole propaganda line
00:52.1
that is coming out from a certain camp na sinasabi, I see BBM, BBM is nothing but, you know, a new Aquino, kumbaga, no, na BBM is dilaw or we should stop comparing, or we should stop going back to the Aquino versus BBM kind of fight and all of that
01:12.7
And I just felt there are a number of problems with that comparison because I think first of all, pag tinignan mo si yung track record ni former president,
01:22.1
President Aquino Jr., compared, Aquino III, sorry, kumpara kay Marcos Jr., there's a lot of differences, I mean, to begin with, of course, good governance agendas, kamustang daan matawid agenda ng kasalukuyan na administration
01:35.5
But more than that, I think there is also this nefarious attempt by a certain camp to lump the two together so that they make their own lodi, their own idol, in the complete sense of the word,
01:49.9
look like the anti-establishment
01:55.1
Parang the idea is that
01:55.9
pag sinabi mo or in-argue mo ng
01:57.9
Aquino's and Marcos's, all of them are the same
02:00.2
you're essentially saying they're all establishment
02:03.7
imperial Manila politicians
02:05.4
therefore the real, real alternative
02:08.0
the real great leader is
02:09.7
si Tatay, di ba? Parang ganun yung line of
02:12.0
argumentation and
02:13.5
to be honest, I mean
02:17.7
putting Marcos and Aquino in the
02:20.0
same sentence when it comes
02:21.9
to fighting for the West Philippine Sea
02:24.1
but even if I were to
02:26.0
concede that, ang sasabihin ko dyan
02:27.9
is malaki pa rin yung pakakaiba
02:29.7
ni President Aquino from
02:31.9
President Marcos Jr. at least so far
02:33.5
and I think it's quite important to
02:35.9
put the legacy of former President
02:41.3
Wala na. Aquino III
02:44.0
and Marcos Jr. into context
02:45.8
So first, kay Marcos Jr., his
02:47.5
term is, you know, he's
02:49.9
yet to hit the midway point
02:51.9
but the reality is that
02:53.6
first year pa lang niya President Aquino III
02:56.2
si Pinoy, we already
02:58.1
knew, no? We already knew na
02:59.7
anong gusto niya mangyari sa buhay, no?
03:01.6
Very clear siya dun sa kanyang objectives
03:03.5
especially yung kanyang daan matuwid
03:05.3
agenda. Now, we can
03:08.0
have a long conversation about how effective
03:09.8
how sincerely, how effectively
03:12.1
that was implemented
03:13.8
but at least it was pretty clear what he stood for
03:15.9
you know? And at least there was
03:17.9
an attempt at good governance agenda. I'm not
03:20.0
sure we're seeing that yet, right?
03:22.8
let's go back to this issue because
03:25.5
there's a reason why I'm also wearing yellow now
03:27.9
this is not necessarily an expression
03:29.8
of solidarity with
03:31.9
One Camp. But I just noticed na
03:37.3
for six years parang
03:39.7
never ako nagsuot ng yellow
03:41.6
except kung Brazil, right?
03:43.6
And the yellow of Brazil
03:45.6
national team, yung mga football jersey natin
03:47.7
yung mga basketball jersey natin, medyo iba siya
03:49.5
dito sa yellow na gano'n. So, actually
03:51.9
just kanina lang naisip ko, bakit ka
03:53.5
usutin ko talagang itong yellow shirt
03:56.0
na yan? Because yellow is really a
03:57.9
beautiful color. It's a beautiful color
04:00.1
It's a color of hope, it's a color of
04:01.9
energy, it's a color of sun, right?
04:04.2
In a way, it's a color of life, no?
04:06.0
And I noticed one of the things that happened
04:08.1
really under the previous administration
04:10.0
was this demonization
04:11.9
of not only a certain
04:13.7
political camp, not only
04:15.8
demonization of a former president
04:17.5
but the demonization of the beautiful,
04:19.8
glorious, gorgeous color, which is yellow.
04:21.9
Right? And I think bilang mga Pinoy
04:23.7
sa nasya, this is a color that we would love.
04:26.0
This is a color that, you know, you feel
04:27.9
very comfortable with, no?
04:33.8
it's time for us to wear more yellow
04:36.0
I mean, that's what I'm gonna say.
04:37.5
And it's time for us to also
04:40.1
not be on the defensive.
04:42.4
To not be on the defensive and actually
04:43.8
take it to the other side, no?
04:45.7
Especially dun sa mga makapili club.
04:47.7
Makapili school of diplomacy, makapili
04:49.7
economics, makapili
04:51.9
school of tatay digong, yung mga ganun.
04:53.9
I'm sorry, makapili school.
04:55.8
Alam nyo na, okay. No, no, no. Ito, ito.
05:01.8
you criticize Duterte
05:03.1
doesn't mean na automatically dilawan ka.
05:06.5
In the same way na
05:12.6
is doing something that
05:13.9
some supporters of Aquino like
05:15.6
doesn't mean that Marcos Jr. is the same as Aquino.
05:18.1
Right? And this idea of the enemy
05:19.9
of my enemy is my friend.
05:21.9
So, it doesn't make sense.
05:23.2
It is clear that the unity is falling apart.
05:25.1
So, may hiduan sa pagkita ng mga Marcos and Dutertes.
05:28.5
Pero, not necessarily
05:29.7
dapat ang gagawin natin dito is
05:31.2
ilalump si Marcos and Aquino into the same camp.
05:33.8
So, how do you resolve
05:39.2
My argument is very simple.
05:41.4
My argument is very simple. At yun yung naisip ko
05:43.1
kakapan habang medyo nag-recover pa tayo, no?
05:45.3
Sabi ko, actually,
05:48.3
because si Duterte
05:49.7
isang malaking aberration,
05:51.9
he's just such an aberration.
05:54.3
Such an, you know, outside the,
05:56.3
you know, beyond the pale
05:57.5
kind of political figure in Philippine history.
06:00.2
Now, of course, for some people, that makes him fantastic.
06:02.7
But for some other people,
06:04.2
it's like, wow, that makes him kehoror.
06:06.8
The point is that he was just so outside
06:08.3
the curve that he
06:09.6
makes other Filipino presidents
06:15.7
Because he's an anti-establishment,
06:18.0
demagogic figure, right?
06:20.4
Suddenly, si BBM,
06:21.9
may mukhang moderate establishment
06:26.0
And therefore, BBM suddenly looks
06:28.1
much more similar to Aquino.
06:29.9
So if this were to a spectrum,
06:32.0
Digong will be all the way here,
06:34.0
right? This is like 50 shades of gray,
06:36.6
light gray to super dark gray.
06:38.7
Like, Digong is all the way there,
06:40.1
close to dark, super dark black
06:41.9
color. And then, like,
06:44.5
Aquino is, let's argue,
06:46.0
for the sake of ideological differentiation,
06:48.4
if I can. And Dito sa
06:51.9
And then, si BBM,
06:53.7
mas malapit kay Pinoy kaysa kay Digong.
06:56.1
Right? But that doesn't
06:58.2
mean Pinoy and Marcus Jr.
07:00.5
are necessarily the same.
07:01.7
It's just that yung isa'y sobrang layo sa lahat,
07:04.6
naging mukhang yung dalawain
07:05.7
na sa isang kampo. Right?
07:07.5
So that's the way I visualize
07:11.8
line of attack na nangyayin kita natin ngayon.
07:15.2
I would consider that
07:17.1
when it comes to some of his basic
07:19.6
sensibilities, right?
07:21.9
Marcus Jr. is much closer to, and I think
07:24.0
this is where I agree with my good colleagues,
07:25.8
Elizandro Claudio. Marcus Jr. is
07:28.0
ironically your traditional
07:29.8
post-Marcus Filipino president.
07:32.3
Right? He is operating
07:34.3
within the quote-unquote
07:35.8
Aquino constitution. Right?
07:38.2
So far, we're not seeing a direct
07:40.1
assault on that, but things could change
07:41.8
as conversations over
07:43.7
constitutional change gain steam,
07:46.2
especially after 2025 elections.
07:50.0
looks like a very traditional post-Marcusian
07:51.9
etsa regime president
07:53.4
while Duterte was so outside.
07:56.7
You know, just so
07:57.7
outside the box, beyond the pale,
08:00.9
in a completely different,
08:02.1
you know, if there's a quadrant here,
08:03.7
sobrang outside there, it makes
08:05.9
BBM and Aquino look like they're inside the same
08:07.9
box. But that's not true.
08:09.9
It's the aberration of Duterte that makes
08:12.0
other presidents look similar even
08:13.9
though those other presidents are
08:15.6
significantly different from each other. Right?
08:18.2
But as I said, there's a propaganda
08:20.1
value to that argument.
08:21.9
Kasi pag sinabi mo ay Pinoy at Aquino
08:24.0
ay similar, isang kampo lang sila,
08:26.5
clearly ang ginagawa mo is
08:28.0
you're glorifying Digong
08:31.8
anti-establishment
08:33.8
genuine alternative
08:35.3
candidate. Now, of course, si Digong himself,
08:38.1
I don't know if he'll be in a position to run for
08:39.9
presidency or even any high office
08:41.9
anytime soon, but the daughter
08:43.8
is still there. The vice president is still there.
08:45.9
So, ang basa ko dito, may ganyan
08:48.2
na elemento nangyari dyan. May ganyan
08:49.9
propaganda para i-react,
08:51.9
may energize yung
08:53.1
atento pre, hindi atento dun sa
08:55.9
Christmas convoy sa way. Pero yung
08:57.6
atento pre, you know,
08:59.8
tayo talaga, real change is coming,
09:02.5
populist kind of mobilization.
09:04.3
Is it gonna work? No, I completely doubt
09:05.9
that. Right? And kaya,
09:07.5
syempre, mga response natin sa mga
09:09.8
kaibigan natin is mostly sarcastic.
09:12.3
Right? Yung mga tipong
09:13.5
sabi na, syempre, they wanna say Digong
09:15.7
was exceptional, he had such a high approval
09:17.7
rating, etc. Which is true, right? But
09:19.8
I can give you a whole host of very questionable
09:24.0
so, and, you know, even more questionable
09:25.9
ones, who also have very high approval ratings.
09:28.0
There's a very, there's a very,
09:32.0
in fact, I would say it's an inverse relationship, right?
09:34.7
Yung relationship between
09:35.9
popularity and competence. The two
09:38.0
do not necessarily go hand in hand.
09:39.8
Sometimes, actually, the best presidents are very
09:41.8
unpopular because doing the right
09:43.9
thing is very unpopular most of the time.
09:46.7
So, popularity is not
09:48.1
necessarily indicator of merit
09:50.0
and competence, right?
09:51.9
And, this is the argument I've
09:53.9
made that, you know, that
09:55.6
did not sit well with a lot of our friends,
09:58.3
it's also hard to trust
10:02.1
surveys in climates
10:03.9
of fear, right? So, when I hear
10:06.0
about surveys' popularity of Putin,
10:08.6
it's like, yeah, let's say someone
10:10.0
calls you in Russia and says,
10:11.6
hello, I'm, you know, I'm Mr.,
10:13.7
I don't know, Kadirov, calling you from,
10:15.7
you know, I wanna know your opinion
10:17.6
of our great leader, Mr. Putin.
10:19.9
Do you like him? We do not like him.
10:21.9
If you're in Russia, you're crazy to say
10:23.8
I don't like Putin over phone, right?
10:25.7
Or if someone knocks on your door, hello, my name
10:27.9
is, you know, my, you know what I'm saying?
10:30.4
In a climate of fear,
10:34.0
psychologically and sometimes more than psychologically
10:36.1
already manipulated, already
10:37.8
self-censored, right?
10:39.9
Now, we're not in a Putin-esque
10:42.5
dictatorship situation.
10:43.9
I always argue that Duterte was not even competent
10:46.0
enough to be a dictator, but the reality
10:48.1
is that the climate of fear was always
10:50.0
a factor. Now, that doesn't mean that he was
10:51.9
not popular. I still believe that President
10:53.9
Duterte was popular,
10:55.9
but so were other presidents at a certain point
10:57.8
in time. I mean, most of our presidents had 50,
10:60.0
60 percent approval ratings,
11:01.6
you know, throughout their term in office,
11:03.9
right? Of course, Duterte ended on, you know,
11:06.2
but even the bigger argument
11:08.0
is even if I were to grant that he was
11:09.9
genuinely popular and had nothing to do
11:11.9
with fear and all of that, so what?
11:13.8
So what? I mean, just because you're popular doesn't
11:15.8
mean you're right, right? As I said, good
11:17.7
presidents tend to be not so popular
11:19.4
because doing the right thing makes you unpopular.
11:21.9
Now, having said all of those things,
11:25.9
mag-focus tayo sa dalawang bagay, no?
11:27.7
Unang-una, again,
11:29.9
sarcastic ako, diba? Yan ang problema. Hindi na
11:31.8
i-guess ng tao na sarcastic tayo. I mean,
11:34.2
yan ang problema ng mga tao
11:35.8
ng ibang dyan. Unang-una,
11:37.8
isn't it ironic na parating sinisabi
11:40.0
ni Digong na weak leader at
11:41.6
spoiled brat, etong isang to?
11:45.7
pag tinignan mo yung West Philippine Sea
11:47.6
disputes, it's actually
11:49.9
President Marco Jr. who is
11:53.1
courage and tenacity in dealing
11:55.9
with China than the previous president
11:58.0
who was like, wala tayong magagawa, let's
11:59.9
be meek, let's be humble, yung mga
12:01.8
purong mga ganyan-ganyan. And of course, if you want to
12:03.9
see a proper analysis of the context
12:05.8
of Marco Jr. going, quote-unquote,
12:08.0
toe-to-toe with China, and talking
12:09.8
about new paradigm, please check out my latest article
12:12.1
on the Asian Times, why Marco Jr.
12:13.8
wants to go toe-to-toe with China.
12:15.6
Philippine President has
12:17.9
defied expectations. He would follow
12:20.0
his predecessor in kow-towing
12:21.9
to China in the South China Sea.
12:23.9
Salamat sa mga editors natin dyan.
12:25.8
Hindi akong gumawa ng mga subtitle
12:28.1
na yan, but please check out this article
12:29.9
you'll see how I explain that actually,
12:32.0
ironically, Marco Jr. has turned out far,
12:34.3
far, far, far more
12:35.5
confrontational towards China and less, less,
12:40.0
as some people would have suggested.
12:42.0
And if anything, between Duterte
12:44.2
and Marco Jr., alam natin sinong mas matapang
12:46.0
sa West Philippines. At sinong mas
12:47.7
ganyan-ganyan sa China.
12:50.3
Again, hindi po US.
12:51.9
Ang gustong, you know, magsakop,
12:54.1
you know, hindi ang US ang sumasakop
12:56.0
dito sa West Philippines. Let's be
12:58.0
very clear about that. So, huwag kayong magpagulay.
13:00.3
Ay, pero, pero, what about
13:02.1
West? What about ganyan?
13:04.0
If si Digong, if Digong
13:06.0
was really against all imperialist
13:08.2
powers in history, bakit wala
13:10.1
siyang sinaming masama sa Japan
13:11.8
ever since? Pansin nyo, si
13:13.9
Digong, sobrang beshi siya sa Japan.
13:16.0
Well, guess what? If you want to talk about Balangiga
13:18.0
bells 100 years ago, why are you not
13:20.1
talking about what imperial Japan,
13:21.9
horrible things they did to us during the Second World War
13:23.9
in the 1940s, which is far
13:25.9
more recent than the Balangiga bells
13:27.7
situation? So, doon pala nakita mo na,
13:30.0
walang basihan itong argument ni Digong na
13:32.0
anti-Western, anti-imperialist.
13:35.1
Eh, kung galit ka sa West
13:36.1
for what they did 100 years ago, dapat galit
13:38.1
ka rin sa Japan sa ginawa nila 70 years ago.
13:40.2
O, bakit ang beshi-beshi mo sa Japan?
13:42.1
See? Huli ko sila eh. Huli ko
13:44.0
yung mga ganyan, mga ano eh, mga ganyan
13:45.7
pa-effect-effect na anti-colonial,
13:48.3
post-colonial effect. Alam na natin yan,
13:50.2
yung mga fake na ganyan. Kasi,
13:51.9
fake nung ganyang 6 months,
13:53.8
ayusin ko yung mga problema, mga fake na ganyan.
13:56.0
Anyway, basahin yung mga kameta,
13:57.8
na-explain natin dyan. So, I think
13:59.9
President Marco Jr. deserves
14:01.8
far more credit for taking
14:05.7
dyan sa West Philippine Sea.
14:07.8
We can have a long discussion about whether this is the best way
14:10.0
forward, but my contention is
14:12.0
if we do not stand
14:14.1
our ground, we're not gonna get respect.
14:16.2
And if we don't get respect, we're just gonna be bullied
14:18.0
right and left. And,
14:20.1
again, ah, again, dun sa
14:21.8
makapili, mga kaibigan natin
14:23.9
ng mga kapili club, yung mga makapili
14:25.7
economics, school of diplomacy,
14:27.7
yung mga gusto mag-mention ng Vietnam.
14:29.6
By the way, Vietnam, it's true, is getting billions
14:31.9
of dollars of investments from China,
14:33.9
but that's not because Vietnam is suddenly
14:36.0
giving up their claims, or
14:37.9
not standing up to China
14:39.4
sa South China Sea or East Sea.
14:41.8
Actually, Vietnam made it
14:43.6
absolutely clear, right, during
14:45.9
yung pagbisita ni Xi Jinping
14:48.0
sa Hanoi recently, that
14:49.6
sovereignty and territorial integrity has to be
14:51.7
respected. So, ang China,
14:53.7
get sila, matapang tong Vietnam, di nila
14:55.7
pwedeng buli-bulin lang. They just have to
14:57.5
accept it, grudgingly, that they have to deal with
14:59.5
Vietnam as it is. And they're not gonna
15:01.4
have things easy. And the reason why
15:03.6
Chinese invest in Vietnam is because of
15:05.5
geography. Because Vietnam is
15:07.6
so close to the Perival Delta, the
15:09.4
Greater Bay Area production networks of China.
15:11.9
It's because Vietnam has direct
15:13.4
access to Western markets. It has
15:15.8
a free trade agreement with the United States,
15:17.7
free trade agreement with the European Union.
15:20.0
It is part of the
15:21.7
PTPP, with Japan, Australia,
15:23.7
and a number of other countries. So, if you're a
15:25.6
Chinese investor, it's good to have
15:27.7
a foothold in Vietnam. Not to mention
15:29.7
Vietnam has a sufficiently robust
15:31.7
industrial manufacturing base already
15:33.6
and a far more decent infrastructure
15:35.8
and regulatory environment compared
15:37.8
to, let's be honest, compared to
15:39.6
Philippines, for that matter. So,
15:41.3
please lang, huwag niyo i-spin yan, right?
15:43.8
So, I think President Marco Junis is correct
15:45.8
to insist that hindi
15:47.7
pwede yung magpapaganyan-ganyan
15:49.7
lang tayo, di ba? We have to stand our
15:51.7
own ground. We have to
15:52.8
leverage our multilateral
15:55.9
engagements. And President Marco Junis
15:57.8
will be visiting an ASEAN country soon
15:59.5
to also build bilateral cooperation
16:01.9
with some of the key ASEAN countries. As I said,
16:03.9
ASEAN 10, just north of useless
16:05.8
in terms of helping us at West Philippine Sea.
16:08.2
But some of the key ASEAN countries could be
16:09.6
helpful to us. But let me go to the last part
16:11.8
really of this discussion,
16:13.3
which I think is very, very important,
16:16.2
mga hameta. Because
16:17.0
if you look at it,
16:19.9
if you really look at it,
16:27.6
how should I put it?
16:29.7
I have been very critical
16:30.9
of the liberals in this country.
16:33.6
I've been very critical of
16:35.3
liberal reformist administrations in this country.
16:37.6
Although, admittedly, I was always
16:42.2
understanding of the Ramos administration
16:46.0
starting point than perhaps the other
16:47.9
liberal reformist administration. But
16:49.3
regardless of that, I mean,
16:51.7
I mean, look at it.
16:53.3
Kaya, natatawa ako dun sa mga
16:58.0
dilawang, yung, yung, yung, like,
16:59.9
hello, I mean, if you guys,
17:01.6
mag-literate kayo, mag-google lang kayo,
17:03.4
hindi naman mahirap mag-google, just look at all of those
17:05.6
critical things I wrote about the previous
17:07.6
administration throughout
17:09.6
the years. No, I mean,
17:11.9
you know, I was actually critical
17:13.9
of the Aquino administration's
17:15.4
South China Sea policy, sa aking palagay.
17:18.1
Masyado siyang confrontational towards
17:21.7
Without, you know, at the
17:23.8
same time, making sure we do our assignment
17:25.7
on the ground. Kaya, eh, kung tignan nyo itong article
17:27.7
ko na Philippines Loveside at South China Sea Strategy,
17:29.9
sabi ko, puro kayong mga legal
17:31.7
arbitration, puro kayong mga diplomatic,
17:33.6
ek-ek. Ang kulang sa inyo,
17:35.7
hindi nyo, hindi nyo pinapalakas
17:37.6
yung fortifying position natin on the ground.
17:40.0
Yung airstrip natin sa pag-asa,
17:41.7
mukhang kawawa. Yung share of Madrid
17:43.8
dyan sa second Thomas Shull,
17:45.8
wala, dilapidated na, it's falling apart.
17:47.8
So, okay, maganda yan, magpadala
17:49.8
kayo ng mga tao, magja-junket-junket kayo dyan,
17:51.7
sa international courts, na, hindi na ma, in fairness,
17:53.5
they didn't do that. But you get what I'm saying? Like, okay, it's fantastic,
17:56.0
go to international court, blah, blah, blah.
17:57.8
But you have to do your assignment.
17:59.6
You have to fortify your position on the ground.
18:01.9
Wala sa, yung in Shull, wala sa
18:03.9
sa pag-asa. In fairness,
18:06.1
the administration that started doing that
18:08.1
again for the first time since
18:09.7
Marcos Sr. is the Gong's administration.
18:12.5
Lorenzano was the one who oversaw
18:13.8
the fortification. So, I
18:16.0
have been critical of the previous,
18:17.7
and I raised this issue with the late secretary,
18:20.0
foreign secretary,
18:20.9
Del Rosario, and his argument
18:23.1
was, oh, we have to have moral high ground.
18:24.8
And I disagree with that. I don't think,
18:28.7
now, Mitchell exclusive, now we filed for
18:30.9
an arbitration award, and then we essentially
18:33.0
tie our own hands at the back,
18:34.9
considering we were already behind the curve. Because,
18:36.8
actually, legally speaking, you can talk to
18:38.9
any international law expert. I had to
18:41.0
talk to many international law experts from
18:42.9
all around the world when I was writing my book,
18:44.8
Asia's New Battlefield. It's absolutely clear,
18:47.7
changing the nature of disputed
18:49.1
features is against international law.
18:50.9
But fortifying what's already
18:52.8
there without changing the nature of disputed features,
18:55.1
that's not against international law.
18:57.2
So, yung pag-asa, isla na yun eh.
18:59.5
It's already a rock at the very
19:00.8
least. So, fixing the air
19:02.7
strip there is not against international law.
19:05.1
Alright? But if ginawa mo siyang
19:07.0
super-Giancading island, katulad
19:08.8
ng ginawa mo ng China, that's illegal.
19:10.9
And that goes against international law. So, I just felt
19:12.9
masyadong timid yung ating
19:14.9
policy on the ground.
19:16.6
I was also very critical of the economic
19:18.7
policy of the economic
19:20.9
administration, for instance, right?
19:23.3
You know, one of the things
19:24.7
I always focus, and then there's
19:26.7
you know, yung mga economist friend natin, yung mga
19:28.8
Google Trends Club friends
19:30.8
natin, dyan, yan. Yung isa dyan,
19:33.4
nung may mga nag-quote
19:35.0
sa akin na, sabi nga ni Hey Darian, ganito yung
19:38.8
income generation sa Philippines. Sabi niya, saan niya
19:40.6
yung ginawa? Ayan, kinorek ko siya tuloy.
19:42.7
Yan kasi, hindi kasi nagbabasa eh.
19:48.6
richest families in the Philippines
19:50.5
Forbes wealth list, accounted
19:55.0
of the country's gross domestic
19:58.4
So 76% of every 6%
20:00.6
growth every year. That's just
20:02.7
short of 5%. So kung
20:04.6
nag-6% growth ang Pilipinas every
20:06.6
year, this is in early 2010s,
20:10.7
to 40 richest families.
20:12.6
This is the worst in Asia.
20:14.9
Compared with Thailand, where the
20:16.6
top 40 richest accounted for
20:19.8
less than half of the
20:22.6
Philippines. And look at Thailand, ang gulo
20:24.3
ng politics nila.
20:26.1
Malaysia is only 5.6%
20:28.6
and Japan is 2.8%.
20:30.9
Alright? Ipupost ko dito.
20:32.6
Para makita niya, nagkakaroon ako malala
20:34.2
yung situation sa Pilipinas
20:36.2
when it comes to yung control ng mga
20:38.2
oligarchies sa ating economic
20:42.0
I'll explain to you shortly. Of course, you're gonna say,
20:44.3
it's 2011, 12, kakapasok lang ni
20:46.3
Pinoy. You're blaming me, blah blah blah.
20:48.7
But, first of all,
20:49.8
let's get the facts straight, okay?
20:52.3
This is the number, okay?
20:56.3
unequal nation in
20:58.1
Asia and one of the worst on Earth.
21:02.5
40 richest families
21:06.3
of newly created growth. Now, a lot of people
21:08.4
who are not very, you know, subtle
21:10.2
in reading, they thought 76%
21:12.8
of entire wealth in the Philippines
21:14.4
is owned by 40 families. Not necessarily.
21:16.7
This just says 76%
21:19.2
of newly created growth.
21:19.4
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.6
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.6
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.8
76% of newly created growth.
21:19.8
So, kung every year
21:22.1
dumagdag tayo ng 20 billion dollars
21:24.8
sa ating GDP, gross domestic product,
21:29.0
close to 15 billion dollars
21:30.7
of that, goes to only 40 families.
21:33.5
Right? Only 40 families.
21:35.1
And back then, Henry C.
21:36.8
and Lucio Tan were both worth
21:38.8
a combined 13.6 billion dollars.
21:41.4
Right? In a country where
21:42.5
tens of millions of people live under
21:44.4
the poverty line. Our situation
21:46.6
is twice worse, more than twice
21:48.8
worse than Thailand,
21:49.8
And, already a very unequal
21:51.6
and political unstable country.
21:52.9
A lot of political instability in Thailand
21:54.4
has to do with inequality of growth.
21:57.1
You go to Bangkok, very well-developed
21:59.5
metropolis, and then there's no other
22:01.1
major city in Thailand of comparison.
22:03.1
I don't think Chiang Mai
22:05.4
is anywhere close to that.
22:07.3
Chiang Mai to Bangkok is like, I don't know,
22:09.1
Baguio to Manila. I mean, I love Baguio,
22:11.1
I'm proud of it, but it's not really comparison.
22:13.8
Right? They barely have a
22:15.2
Cebu to Manila, right?
22:16.7
Forget about, I don't know,
22:18.5
Los Angeles to New York.
22:19.8
So, it's a very imbalanced and
22:21.3
equal country. We're twice worse
22:23.6
than Thailand. More than twice worse.
22:25.4
And, Malaysia is only 5.6 percent.
22:27.6
So, Malaysia also has its own oligarchs.
22:29.4
Mahathir has its own oligarchs, including the guy
22:31.3
who built the Petronas Towers, right?
22:33.8
That guy behind it, before Petronas
22:36.0
had to bail it out, that guy was known as
22:37.9
an oligarch of Mahathir, right?
22:40.7
But, Malaysia is only 5.6 percent.
22:42.8
Japan is not even 3 percent.
22:45.8
So, we're like more than 25 times worse
22:49.6
than Japan, already a very wealthy country
22:51.8
with a per capita income of 8 times us
22:53.8
in terms of inequality of distribution of new wealth.
22:58.5
So, I hope people understand.
23:01.4
Ako, medyo critical ako sa akin ng administration
23:05.7
because sa tingin ko, masyado silang standard
23:08.6
sa kanilang policies.
23:10.1
They did not come out with any, you know,
23:13.4
really outside the box and important
23:16.3
industrial trade policies to make the Philippines a manufacturing country.
23:19.4
Ako, medyo critical ako sa akin ng administration
23:21.4
to make the Philippines a manufacturing power.
23:23.4
Name me a single major industrial policy
23:25.4
that was introduced during the Akin administration
23:27.4
to help us build our own version of VinFast.
23:29.4
Or our own version of, I don't know,
23:31.4
I even, you know, Proton of Malaysia.
23:33.4
Forget about, I don't know, Hyundai or whatever, right?
23:37.4
Industrial policy is the reason why
23:39.4
Vietnam is building its own electric cars right now.
23:41.4
Industrial policy is the reason why.
23:43.4
What is industrial policy?
23:45.4
You coordinate with your oligarchs and big businesses
23:47.4
to push them in the direction to build world-class technology.
23:49.4
We didn't have that.
23:51.4
What we had was standard economic practices
23:54.4
and macroeconomic, macroprudential policies
23:56.4
which did not fundamentally change the structure of the Philippine economy.
24:00.4
Kaya nung bumaba si Aquino,
24:02.4
the Philippines was still, and not,
24:04.4
a country far from being a manufacturing power.
24:07.4
And we're still kulelat among our peers
24:10.4
in terms of attracting investments and all of that.
24:12.4
No? So, that's the reason why I felt
24:14.4
Aquino was doing okay within the existing framework
24:17.4
but he had to go way beyond that.
24:19.4
To really dramatically change the landscape.
24:21.4
That's why I was critical.
24:22.4
Kaya nung mga bobo dyan,
24:24.4
daryan dilawan, etc.
24:26.4
Are you kidding me?
24:27.4
Have you read all of these critical things I've been reading?
24:29.4
Obviously, these people don't read.
24:30.4
But, you know, it's a rhetorical question.
24:32.4
I'm just exposing what kind of fools these people are.
24:35.4
But, you see, that's my point.
24:37.4
Kaya nung I always felt,
24:39.4
you're not going to impress me as a new administration president
24:42.4
unless you have something significant to bring to the table
24:44.4
because the situation is really bad
24:46.4
in terms of inequality of growth.
24:48.4
I was also critical of the Haiyan situation.
24:50.4
Look at this article I wrote,
24:51.4
Philippines Haiyan Tragedy, What Went Wrong.
24:53.4
So, I look at the, you know,
24:56.4
not in a DDS way, you know, critical.
24:59.4
But, you know, in a fair way, based on evidence way, critical.
25:02.4
I also had a number of articles on the Mama Sapano situation.
25:06.4
In fact, I just figured, I had apparently this interview
25:09.4
on Mama Sapano and how I felt that, you know,
25:13.4
that was a big blow to the popularity of former President Aquino and all of that.
25:17.4
So, you can go on and on and find a lot of articles that I wrote
25:20.4
that were quite critical of the Aquino administration and all of that, right?
25:23.4
So, you can check in this article also, I explain things.
25:25.4
But, having said all of those things,
25:28.4
I think Aquino at least got some of the basic things right.
25:31.4
You know, he didn't go really outside the box
25:33.4
and he drew something significant.
25:35.4
But he got one of the basic things right.
25:36.4
And in fact, it was under President Aquino
25:39.4
that we began to make some of the first good steps.
25:43.4
Ayan, yung mga ano natin dyan,
25:45.4
kukuni lang nila itong partner.
25:47.4
Alam mo yung mga hiyan yun na yan.
25:48.4
Tatanggalin nila lahat ng mga sinabi ko kanina.
25:50.4
Kukuni lang nila itong mga partner to.
25:52.4
Alam mo yung mga hiyan yun na yan.
25:53.4
But, let me just be very clear about this.
25:58.4
The whole idea that the Philippines is supposing an Asia's,
26:03.4
a rising tiger in Asia, sobrang annoying yan.
26:08.4
Because I kept on hearing that during the previous administration.
26:11.4
Hmm, salamat kay Tatay Digong. Ano na tayo? Rising Asian tiger, blah, blah.
26:18.4
This was under Pinoy. Alright?
26:20.4
So, this is a Philippine Star article, February 2013.
26:25.4
Alright? Yung mga hiyan yun dyan.
26:26.4
Sinong presidente natin noong 2013? Hindi si Tatay Digong.
26:29.4
Alright? Naka-Dilaw shirt pa yata siya nung panon yan.
26:31.4
Election ba yan noong 2013?
26:33.4
Okay. Hmm, tingnan yung mga elections time.
26:37.4
Yung kasama ni Digong at si Maroz. Okay, anyway.
26:40.4
At interestingly, if you zoom in into this article,
26:46.4
is where this announcement was made.
26:48.4
So, there was this meeting in Davao.
26:52.4
And the person there was Muto Kunishi.
26:56.4
Ito yung hapon na economist who was in charge of the Philippines portfolio sa World Bank.
27:03.4
This is the 2013 Philippine Development Forum.
27:06.4
And it took place in Marco Polo Hotel. Of course, alam nyo naman, diba?
27:10.4
Marco Polo Hotel, you know. Alam mo naman, diba? The whole Davao, the people.
27:14.4
Okay. So, actually dito, nagkaroon ng announcement, inanunsyo, ng World Bank expert,
27:22.4
ng Pilipinas is now considered as a rising Asian tiger economy
27:26.4
because at least, the one good thing, and one important good thing that President Marcos Junior,
27:31.4
sorry, President Aquino, sorry, the third, was able to establish was
27:36.4
just enough stability, just enough good governance signaling, not really fully sufficient.
27:42.4
We can have a long conversation.
27:44.4
To at least make the world think of us as anything but, you know, kind of a sick man of Asia again.
27:52.4
I mean, it just allowed us to get, slowly get rid of that sick man of Asia label.
27:58.4
And it allowed us to be taken more seriously by investors and international community.
28:02.4
And in fairness to President Marcos, ah, President Aquino, thank you, President Marcos.
28:05.4
President Aquino, it was under his term that we had the highest average growth rate
28:10.4
of any president, Philippine President,
28:12.4
in recent memory.
28:13.4
That's a fact that we're gonna get rid of.
28:15.4
Now, does that make him a fantastic president or what?
28:18.4
As I said, for me, a fantastic president is someone who's fundamentally changed the structure of Philippine economy.
28:24.4
So that hindi 40 families take home 5% out of 6% growth.
28:29.4
Right? That's crazy.
28:31.4
Indian situation in Philippines is twice worse than Thailand inequality
28:37.4
and 20 times worse than, I don't know, Malaysia
28:40.4
and 30 times, I don't know, worse than Japan.
28:42.4
That's crazy. Those numbers are crazy.
28:44.4
So you really need a radical president to really put the Philippines on the right path.
28:48.4
But in terms of just getting the most out of what we had,
28:51.4
I think President Aquino did a pretty decent job.
28:54.4
And I think he deserves some credit for that.
28:56.4
That's why I think there's no shame in, you know, folks saying that they voted for Aquino at some point in time
29:03.4
or they supported Aquino at some point in time.
29:05.4
But at the same time, you have to be also open to constructive criticism.
29:10.4
You have to be open to the idea that, you know, we needed even more than that.
29:15.4
And precisely because we're not able to bring about yung massive transformation in the economy,
29:21.4
nagtataka kayo bakit bumutang tao sa isang katulad ni Digong noong 2016?
29:26.4
I mean, for me, the biggest question, you know, when I wrote the book, The Rise of Duterte,
29:31.4
the biggest question I had, of course I have to probably have a sequel now,
29:35.4
but the question I had was, was not that Duterte,
29:38.4
someone like Duterte won in 2016.
29:40.4
The biggest question I had was, why someone like Duterte did not come earlier?
29:44.4
Because in a country where 40 families take home three-fourths of newly created growth,
29:53.4
you're asking for political disaster.
29:55.4
It's, you're asking for trouble.
29:58.4
Oh, and by the way, it's also a country where political dynasties control 80% of elected offices in the legislature.
30:05.4
I mean, this is a mockery.
30:07.4
This is a mockery of any claim to being a progressive democratic nation, right?
30:13.4
So, again, kudos to President Aquino for getting, you know, like,
30:17.4
you know, like squeezing the most out of the available lemon or whatever you had it.
30:22.4
But we needed something bigger, something more radical and different.
30:25.4
And the radical option became Duterte.
30:28.4
And that was unfortunate because I felt that was not the right radical option.
30:32.4
It was the wrong radical option as most of us got to know later on.
30:36.4
I mean, look at this economic performance.
30:38.4
Five quarters of recession from 2020 to 2021.
30:41.4
Worst in Southeast Asia.
30:43.4
Look at his performance in the pandemic.
30:46.4
Worst in Southeast Asia.
30:47.4
Look at more than 100 children killed by 2020 during AJK's.
30:51.4
Thousands of other suspicious deaths.
30:54.4
Worst anywhere in the post-colonial world or at least in Southeast Asia.
30:58.4
I mean, ICC is already in the country conducting investigation right now.
31:01.4
They're not doing that in any other of our major neighbors
31:04.4
because we got the worst economy.
31:06.4
We got the worst situation in terms of the AJK situation.
31:08.4
And I can go on and on and on about the shortcomings of that supposedly radical option.
31:14.4
Wrong radical option, unfortunately.
31:16.4
But the reality is that we do need a radical reorganization of the Philippine society and economy
31:22.4
because what we have right now is not providing the wealth,
31:26.4
is not providing the opportunities that ordinary Filipinos deserve.
31:30.4
So I'm happy that some of my middle-class friends,
31:32.4
some of my internationally educated friends
31:34.4
were happy and successful during the Aquino years.
31:37.4
But also think about tens of millions of Filipinos
31:39.4
who are still under contractual works,
31:41.4
who didn't have security of tenure.
31:43.4
Think of millions of precariat and proletariat Filipinos, right?
31:47.4
Who didn't see a significant improvement in their living conditions.
31:51.4
And that is why I don't believe that
31:53.4
Marcos Jr., as he stands, is still that kind of solution to our country.
32:00.4
And I won't be surprised that, again,
32:02.4
some sort of radical politics could come back down the road,
32:06.4
maybe no longer Duterte but something else,
32:08.4
if we do not get to the bottom of the problem.
32:11.4
So the political dynasty problem, we always talk about that.
32:14.4
So I don't even need to post it.
32:15.4
But there's this very interesting article.
32:17.4
I think it's by Dean Tihanki.
32:23.4
Actually, I have the graph and numbers here.
32:25.4
I mean, grabing Filipinas.
32:27.4
Political dynasties like 60, 70, 80% of elected offices.
32:33.4
No other quote-unquote democracy has a situation like that.
32:36.4
But even worse is our economy.
32:38.4
How concentrated growth is.
32:40.4
So, having said that, again,
32:42.4
this is how you do political analysis.
32:44.4
You don't say President A is heaven,
32:46.4
President B is hell,
32:48.4
President C is heaven.
32:49.4
That's kid stuff. That's puerile.
32:51.4
A proper analysis looks at the 50 shades, right?
32:55.4
Looks at 10 different metrics.
32:57.4
And then, accordingly, makes a judgement of 1 out of 100.
33:02.4
You don't give 0 or 100.
33:03.4
That's kid stuff.
33:04.4
Kaya inis na inis ako dun sa mga political analysts.
33:07.4
Anong score mo kay President nung speech niya?
33:15.4
That's not mature.
33:17.4
You don't do it that way.
33:18.4
At I want to also end on this point, mga hameta.
33:21.4
This is why do not blame our kababayans.
33:25.4
Yung mga bumoto sa mga candidates.
33:28.4
Sa satingin niyo hindi karapat-dapat dun sa position.
33:31.4
A lot of that vote was out of anger, grievance, and frustration.
33:35.4
Ang anger, grievance, and frustration because when we had relatively good leaders, they didn't.
33:41.4
They really did not fundamentally change the nature of the Philippine society.
33:45.4
They did not fundamentally change the extreme inequalities bedeviling our economy and our political system.
33:52.4
So surprise ba kayo that people are skeptical of democracy?
33:55.4
Surprise kayo that more and more people are open to authoritarian, demagogic leaders?
33:59.4
You shouldn't be surprised.
34:01.4
And to dismiss that as, oh, disinformation lang yan.
34:04.4
And I mean, of course there's disinformation, but why would people fall for disinformation
34:07.4
if the education system is strong, if people are happy with the economic conditions,
34:12.4
if political dynasties are not dominating all offices?
34:15.4
And by the way, to be clear, the concentration of political dynasties in the Congress actually worsened in the 2010s
34:22.4
under you-know-who president, right?
34:25.4
So there was absolutely no solution to the fundamental problems facing the country.
34:30.4
But again, having said that, we have to give credit where credit is due.
34:34.4
I think in terms of at least building the fundamentals and making the most out of what was there,
34:37.4
I think Aquino deserved some credit for that.
34:40.4
And for that reason, we're a little bit more yellow.
34:43.4
Don't be ashamed of that.
34:44.4
And if the mga ka-DDS natin dyan are trying to troll you, troll them back.
34:48.4
Do what I do, right? Bakit?
34:51.4
Di ba? Who are they to tell us what should we wear, what color is good, what color is not good?
34:55.4
Wala silang moral ascendancy whatsoever.
34:58.4
On that note, thank you very much.
35:00.4
Mga ka-Meta, sorry, medyo slow yung pagbibuild ng argument natin dito
35:04.4
because not only, you know, this is a complicated issue,
35:07.4
but, you know, I'm not at my best 100% to be honest, alright?
35:12.4
So thank you very much for your patience, for your love, and your support.
35:16.4
And hopefully we can catch up soon, God willing, after Christmas.
35:19.4
Please, huwag kayong magalit sa akin.
35:21.4
Huwag niyo ako i-troll masyado.
35:23.4
Or sige, troll niyo ako. Maganda naman yung engagement.
35:25.4
Basta, tuloy-tuloy lang ang laban at pagmamahal namin sa inyo.
35:29.4
And hopefully, God willing, if we have time, we'll do another year-ender.
35:33.4
Tingnan natin kung wala si El, kahit kami niya R&R na lang ulit.
35:38.4
On that note, thank you very much, God bless.
35:39.4
Please, huwag kayong magalit.
35:40.4
You see, this is how I analyze different administration.
35:42.4
I look at many angles.
35:43.4
Obviously, what I did in the past 40 minutes, 30 minutes, whatever, is just a snippet.
35:47.4
If you bother to read my works, books, whatever, you can see that I go through the whole gambit, right?
35:52.4
To properly analyze the record of individual presidents and administration.
35:57.4
Because this is how you do an analysis.
35:59.4
This is the proper way of doing analysis.
36:01.4
Hindi yung, ito ay demonyo, ito ay anghel, yung mga gano'n.
36:05.4
I mean, we're not 12 years old.
36:08.4
And mature democracy doesn't go from 0 to 10, right?
36:12.4
It's a matter of just getting the best outcome possible in each elections.
36:18.4
Everyone is entitled to make mistakes in their life.
36:21.4
We're just human beings.
36:22.4
So do not judge people just because they voted for a candidate you feel was horrible.
36:26.4
Even if that candidate indeed was horrible, right?
36:29.4
Especially if you see them already showing a certain degree of self-awareness, introspection, and a certain degree of remorse.
36:37.4
Ako, I'm a kind person.
36:39.4
And at the same time, just because a certain president was bad doesn't make your preferred candidate necessarily a good one.
36:48.4
We never know. Never know.
36:49.4
Baka kung nanalo naman yung kandidata niyo, balpak din.
36:52.4
So, you know, I'm just saying, keep an open mind.
36:54.4
Do not demonize other Filipinos.
36:56.4
And understand. Compassion. Compassion.
36:59.4
Compassion and critical thinking, right?
37:01.4
Marami sa ating mga kababayan ay desperate for real dramatic change.
37:06.4
Real good change.
37:07.4
Not just real change, but real good change.
37:09.4
So don't be surprised if populism will be back again sooner than later.
37:13.4
In the meantime, party!
37:16.4
Alright! Si Junior, our president!
37:19.4
Party! Okay? Relax lang tayo dyan.
37:22.4
Okay, on that note, thank you very much.
37:24.4
God bless and advance. Merry Christmas.
