A special "Ronald and Richard" Episode.

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All right, ito na, ito na, pag-usapan natin ito. So China just came out with a statement blaming the Philippines for the rising tensions in the area. I mean these are like the gaslight kings of the earth. Pilipinas pa daw ang may kasalanan sa mga nangyari. Ito ay ayon sa Foreign Minister Spokesperson Wang Wenbin ng China sa kanina na Foreign Minister.

Of course, maraming nainis sa kanila including of course yung mga galing sa Pilipinas, officials in the Philippines. So J. Tariela, Commodore J. Tariela of the Philippine Coast Guard aka bad boy of the West Philippine Sea.

Ayon sa kanya, how can we engage you in a dialogue and consultation when your statement begins by blaming the Philippines for escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea,

accusing us of deliberately provoking China, infringing on your territorial sovereignty?

How can we trust China's commitment to maintaining regional peace and stability when you deploy, you deploy the China Coast Guard to use water cannons against our PCG and B-4 vessels which are on purely humanitarian missions?

And how can you claim territorial sovereignty over these waters based on the 10-dash line which your own government decided to draw disregarding the own clause that your country also signed?

Not to mention, of course, the Arbitration Award of 2016. Let's not forget that the Second Doma Shoal or Ayungin Shoal is not even...

The territory is just a low-type elevation extension of our continental shelf.

So, in short, China is really drawing the line and saying, I'm not interested in any kind of compromise.

How do you see this, Ronald? Kasi for me, the reason na medyo nakakatakot ito is because this is coinciding and at the same time dialectically reinforcing yung internal divisions within the Philippine political establishment.

I'll be honest with you, Ronald. I'm hearing some people who are not necessarily fans of the Dutertes, but they're saying,

natatakot sila na itong divisions sa UNITEAM will only strengthen China's hands.

That this has to be resolved in one way or another, even if that means cutting the umbilical cord between the VP and the father.

If the father is a troublemaker, this daughter really has to stay away.

Because I think some quarters are thinking they can still keep Sarah on the good side, or at least on the sane side, and cut off the father and tell her, wag mo i-drag down yung daughter mo.

How do you see this happening? Kasi yun nga, dito talagang Philippines is very unique.

I cannot think of any other country whereby...

The superpowers are directly influencing and invested in and being also affected by really fights at the highest level, highest echelons of power.

Sabi nga nung isang, one of the richest Filipinos, a few days back, na ito yata yung may-ari ng biggest mall system sa Pilipinas.

Anong sabi niya? Na hindi makakatulong itong escalation na ito.

Kailangan natin mag-step back at tignan ano yung magiging effect.

Yung effecto nito sa ating economy. Bagamat ang focus niya ay economy. Tapos yung binabanggit mo, yung effecto nito sa ating political dynamics.

Duda ako na maghahati yung mag-ama, yung vice president at saka yung ex-president sa issue ng West Philippine Sea, sa issue ng China. Duda ako.

Tingin ko, beyond the point na sila na maghihiwalay, mas ang panila ngayon is a common survival.

Kahit marami silang issue sa isa't isa. Tingin ko ngayon ay common survival na yung nagbabind sa kanila.

At tingin ko for now ay hindi yan madidivide ng issue na napaka-significant issue like the West Philippine Sea or China.

Yun yung isa.

Pero at the same time, ang tingin ko, China won't cross the line militarily. At least not yet.

Not yet.

Tingin ko not for the next few years.

Ang problema is accidents happen.

Yun yung problema. Kung merong mangyaring aksidente.

Not necessarily between China and the Philippines, kung hindi an accident between our allies and China.

Yun yung delik. Kaya doon nagwo-worry yung ibang mga ASEAN friends natin.

Doon nagwo-worry ang Malaysia. Doon nagwo-worry ang Singapore.

Ang problema naman sa ating mga friends sa ASEAN, alibawa ang Singapore naman ay wala namang territorial dispute.

At beneficiary sila ng financial transactions. Massive financial transactions with China.

Yung Malaysia naman, bagamat meron din silang counting claims, ang daming big ticket projects with China.

Kaya sa ngayon, medyo circumspect sila about itong nangyayari. Ayaw nilang madamay sa gulo.

Kaya iba yung interest ng mga kaibigan natin sa ASEAN.

Kaya for now, hindi ko mag-i-review.

Hindi ko masyadong aasahan ng ASEAN.

Kahit dapat magkaroon ng strong position, alibawa sa Code of Conduct,

I doubt kung ASEAN will go out of its way to help us dito sa ating problema with China.

Pero yung buong mundo, gusto tayong tulungan. Yung buong mundo nakikisimpatya sa atin.

Nagulat nga ako. Nung nabasa ko yung mga news about Christmas Convoy,

na bumalik.

Ba? Ang dami! From Sweden, to Italy, to France, to the Netherlands, to Germany, at siya.

Dami nagpapadala. Buti na lang may instant translation ngayon.

Kaya nagulat ako sa dami. Mas marami yung lumabas sa international kesa sa local.

Pero sa local, ang dami rin. Hanggang yesterday, may mga lumalabas.

Ang Rappler, gumawa ng special. Tomorrow, gagawa ang 1PM.

Yung paborito mong TV station ng special about the Christmas Convoy.

And that's more than a week ago.

So talagang yung buong mundo, kahit yung mga maliliit na activities katulad ng Christmas Convoy,

pinapanood nila at sinusuportahan nila.

Ibig sabihin kung yung ASEAN ay medyo reserved vis-a-vis our engagement,

yung mundo ay very supportive.

Ngayon, ibang usapin kung how will that play into...

...our engagement.

But I'll push back against it. I'll say that the mundo you're talking about is

with Italy, Sweden, US, Japan. They all sound Western to me, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

It matters if Vietnam speaks out. And I think Vietnam kind of shares our perspective on these things.

I mean, I think Vietnam should actually say something because we stood in solidarity with them on multiple times,

including nung binuling Fisher-Manila in 2021. We released a solidarity statement.

But my understanding is that there's going to be a visit to a key ASEAN country by President Marcos.

So, I'm not giving up on entire ASEAN. I think ASEAN 10 as an organization is just north of useless in terms of helping us.

But some key ASEAN countries, I think, can be very useful bilaterally. Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, who knows?

Even with Malaysia, although with Anwar Ibrahimovic...

I agree with you. I agree with you, Richard.

Sweden, yes, they have been neutral for 350 years, but they're no longer neutral. They joined NATO, right?

So, that's my problem.

Optics is not good. When you rather want India, Turkey, Brazil, you know, those kinds of countries,

I don't know, Vietnam speaking, in support of us or at least not, you know, pushing back against the Chinese bullying, even indirectly.

Tingin ko yung Latin America will take time, no? Pero Vietnam, yes.

Lalo na yung Vietnam has an historic scaling up ng relationship with the US.

Di ba? It happened last month, no? Yung nag-scale up sila ng military...

economic engagement with the US, no?

So, tingin ko yung Vietnam or possibly Indonesia, no?

Ay pwedeng mahatak natin in the middle.

Pag hindi na sila chair, kasi this year chair sila eh.

Ang problema pag chair ka, you have to be neutral kasi you're 10 eh.

But I think once hindi na chair and then they have a new president na more friend.

Pero patapos na eh. Patapos na yung chairman ship eh.

Oh, kaya na. This year lang. And then patapos na rin si Jokowi. He's gonna be out by February.

So, Valentine's Day.

Valentine's Day next year is there gonna be next presidential election.

So, we might see a different Indonesia. Not totally, but different enough for us to find a common ground.

I agree with you on that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

So, ang kuha ko naman dito sa mga bansang ito, no?

Hindi ko inaasahan sila. They're too far away.

Pero bakit sila gumagawa ng statements? Mas ganun pa yung context.

Ikalawa, as part of Europe.

As part of Europe.

Dahil alam ko, interesado rito UK tsaka France eh.

And to some extent, Spain, no?

May ganun klaseng.

Tingin ko ito mga ito.

Alibawa, yung mga anim na vessels ng force guard natin, ang nagbigay niyan is France.

France ang nagbigay niyan.

Ang UK, tingin ko may plano rin magbigay ng battleship.

Hindi ko alam yung Spain.

So, ibig sabihin, hindi...

Yung Israel, magbibigay din sila ng...

Hindi insignificant.

Hindi insignificant.

Alibawa, yung isang major ship building company sa France, nagtayo ng office dito, yung Osea.

Yung Osea.

So,

magagandang mga panto, initial moves, no?

Yung mga bansa na dati ay walang pakialam sa atin.

Ito, dati walang pakialam.

Ngayon, they're establishing toeholds into the country.

To be fair, wala rin tayong pakialam sa kanila dati.

If you're Philippines ka, purong US ka, ganun-ganun.

Pero nagulot ako na nakaka-approve lang ng GSP Plus.

With Europe.

Yung US ang hindi pa tapos.

Yes, yes, yes.

Yung US hindi pa tapos.

I just interviewed the ambassador recently.

I mean, my point is, Ronald, magpasalamat tayo sa ating minamahal na Pangulo.

Pumupunta siya sa iba't ibang bansa.

Naghirap siya.

Nag-build siya ng mga...

Four days sa Japan.

Four days.

Hard work.

Hindi ka ba sumama?

Hindi ka ba sumama sa Japan?

Mamaya na ako may separate track ako dyan.

Kasi marami sila.

Masyado, ayoko magpapasalamat.

Nakahinap kita eh.

Doon sa pictures.

Ano ba ang sumama si Richard dyan?

May separate track 2 na.

So, Ronald, actually I like the point you said about Latin America.

I mean, I'm very skeptical about Latin America

because Latin America is very lefty, anti-USE

and China is a very big player there.

So, mahirap yan.

But I think it's worth a shot

because at least there are a couple of governments in Latin America

that, yun nga eh.

Kasi, I mean, Ronald, ikaw, to be honest,

like, how do you feel

when you hear from other ASEAN countries and all?

Kayo kasi mga Pilipino,

Western kayo masyado eh.

Like, how do you feel about that?

Because, I mean, it's true

and at the same time, it's not true.

It's not true in the sense that

they're trying to dismiss us

as being just a US lackey in a way

or like being too far away from them.

And it's a gaslighting

because we're the only one who bothers

to actually stand up to China.

But at the same time,

I mean, vocally,

at the same time,

it's true naman talaga na iba tayo

sa ibang ASEAN countries eh.

Mala silang anything,

like Ilustrados, Rizal,

liberal democratic traditions,

no ASEAN country has had that.

Let's just be brutally honest.

What are the two other ASEAN democracies?

Indonesia and Malaysia?

Ang laya sa atin.

Ang laya-laya nila.

And the little one experience we had with Thailand,

hindi naman tumagal.

So, we're really the only liberal democracy

in this part of the world.

But, we're also Latinos, right?

We are Hispanic in a certain sense.

And that's a very underdeveloped part of our diplomas.

I mean, how do you see that?

Kasi, the reason I'm asking you is because

marami kang connection rin dun sa mga Latin American left.

Mga kaibigan natin dyan, di ba?

Who are, you know, with us on many other issues.

Pero parang pagdating sa China always,

parang ako pa yung neoconservative.

Parang ako pa yung nini-neocon nila.

Wait lang.

I'm just fighting for the Philippines' rights.

How does that make us neocon, right?

When I oppose the West on other wrong policies

they have around the world,

including in the Middle East.

Well, una, yung mga attitude

ng ating mga fellow ASEAN,

nagbabago rin eh.

Nagbabago rin eh.

It depends on which side of their bread is battered on.

Hindi naman lahat sila kumakain ng bread.

Mas rice, no?

Pero kumakain sila ng butter lahat.

So, halimbawa,

during nung nag-file tayo ng case sa UNCLOS,

very supportive sila.

Halos lahat sila nandun.

Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam.

Nandun sila, no?

Very excited sila dun sa kaso.

Pero nagbabago yan,

depende sa kanilang economic relationship with China.

At a particular moment, mataas.

At a particular moment,

mataas.

Halimbawa, nung nanalo si Mahathir sa Malaysia,

very anti-China siya, di ba?

Nung nanalo si Anwar,

very pro-China.

So, depende rin dyan sa political climate

sa kanilang mga bansa.

Katulad ng possibly mangyari sa Indonesia

in the next few months.

So, medyo fluid din eh.

Maliban sa Cambodia at saka Laos,

yung mga ibang bansa dyan ay nagbabago.

Halimbawa,

nung,

nung nagsalita ako dun sa Singapore Forum

when I was a minister,

katulad ng silang sabi mo,

very critical sila sa atin.

Masyado kayong western,

masyado kayong ganito-ganito.

Pero after a couple of years,

very anti-China naman sila.

Mukhang may nangyaring incident between them.

Nagkaroon ng problema.

So, nagbabago yan.

Depende sa political and economic climate

of each country

ng miyembro

ng ASEAN.

Kitang-kita ko yan dun sa Mahatir to Anwar.

Nagbago eh yung attitude nila.

Naalala mo,

kinansel ni Mahatir yung kanilang

big ticket rail train project with China.

Di ba?

Tapos yung kanilang finance minister,

si Lim Guan Eng,

ay na persona ng grata sa China.

Dahil siya yung bad cop ni Mahatir noon.

Siya yung tigakatay

ng mga ginawa na mga deals ni Najib.

With China.

Siya yung kumatay.

Tapos ngayon, binabalik uli ni

binabalik ngayon ni Anwar.

So,

nagbabago.

I actually slightly disagree with that because

slightly because

I see your point.

Ang akin lang naman is

if you look at it,

even Mahatir, right?

Once he got the concessions from China,

he sounded suddenly different.

No, walang problema sa Huawei.

Well, CIA spies on us.

What's the problem if China does it?

So, honestly,

the way I see it,

I completely agree with you.

Behind the scenes,

they were very supportive.

Pero opportunista sila eh.

Nag-piggy bank sila sa atin eh.

Yun ang nakikita ko

ang tendency nila.

They will speak out once in a while

against China,

but end of the day,

they'll go back,

they'll revert to the mean.

Even Mahatir did that.

Even Mahatir.

I interviewed him

when he was in the Philippines.

By the time he came to Manila,

nag-tone down na siya

sa anti-China sentiments niya.

He was more saying,

no, we are for investment,

just high quality,

ganun,

very different from his tone before.

So, my sense is

ang problema sa mga asin,

including Vietnam,

ang tuwang-tuwa sila

nang file tayo ng arbitration,

pero parang pinipiggy bank lang nila

yung mga hirap natin eh.

Tayo yung nabubugbog dito sa ASEAN,

tayo lang lumalaban naman talaga

all the way eh.

Pero ang sasabihin naman nila,

kayo kasi may alliance kayo sa US,

kami wala.

So, you know,

I don't know,

medyo mixed feeling ako dito,

Ronald eh.

For me,

there's really a streak of opportunism there,

if not slight cowardice,

I would say,

on the part of some of our partners

and friends.

Totoo niyo naman yan.

I'll be honest,

I love ASEAN,

but I have to be honest about this.

Totoo rin naman yan,

Rizal.

Bawa,

nung pausap ko yung mga Vietnamese,

sabi nila,

o pagkatapos niyo mag-file,

kami naman ang susunod.

No?

2024 na,

hindi pa sila nagpa-file.

No?

Dahil,

nung na-meet ko sila last year,

ang sabi nila,

sabi ko sa kanila,

magpa-file ba kayo?

Sabi niya,

hindi na.

Dahil panalo na kayo eh,

okay na yan.

At saka marami kami ngayong

economic deals with China eh.

Maraming mga,

maalis ng mga companies from China

sa Vietnam pumupunta.

At tatataka nila ng

made in Vietnam

para hindi sila,

para magkaroon sila ng

preferential options sa US.

So,

tama yung sayo mo,

opportunistic niya rin.

Pero,

that won't change eh.

Hindi yan magbabago eh.

Siyempre ba namang bansa dito

sa ating region,

yung tatayo based on principle,

based on ideology,

based on friendship.

No?

Again,

so I think we now kind of have

a common understanding of this.

Maganda yan.

Na clear tayo doon.

Now,

ang akin lang naman,

hindi naman ako

ilusyonado.

Alam ko naman na they're not gonna come out

guns blazing and all.

But,

statement naman kayo

ng medyo patagilid ng konti na,

you know,

be nice to our founding member,

maybe,

gusto mo naman hindi masyadong bully.

Yun naman,

konting ganon.

Just a little love.

Yun lang.

Not ten,

four.

Give us four at least.

And they're not even giving us four,

they're giving us zero.

So,

ang dalawang silence sa West Philippines

ay ASEAN at Dutertes, right?

Magsama na lang sila,

di ba?

Pero yan,

kailangan kasi natin i-strengthen din

yung relasyon natin sa kanila.

No?

Alimawa,

kung yung ating BIMP Iyaga with Indonesia

ay nadala natin doon sa

greater coordination.

Meron tayong,

meron tayong suasion

kahit papano

sa Indonesia

to make some statements

in support of us.

Pero walang nangyari doon sa BIMP Iyaga natin.

No?

It became an empty shell.

No?

So,

kailangan din,

meron din tayong,

meron din tayong

counting toehold sa kanila.

Para din sila

ay magkaroon ng interest

to support.

Tama, Ronald.

May pagkabot lang din tayo.

Actually,

the reason I'm saying this is because

ang patsingo dito,

may mutual dismissiveness.

May mga iba siya

sa isa,

ah, Pilipinas,

Western yan.

Yung mga sa Pilipinas,

ah, ASEAN,

pro-China,

Latian,

China's lucky.

You're absolutely right.

This is where you and I

are completely on the same board.

My criticism of ASEAN

is from a position of love.

And ang sinasabi ko,

first,

wala nga ng ASEAN.

And be honest about it,

ayoko ng plastikan.

And then,

let's still engage ASEAN.

Not ASEAN 10,

medyo walang ano yan.

Pero yung ASEAN 4,

ASEAN 3,

ASEAN 5,

yung key members,

yung mga,

kasing founding members natin,

or Vietnam for that matter.

And I think President Marco Jr.

appreciate.

I mean,

how do you see Marco Jr.'s

ASEAN policy?

Looks like he wants to

kind of do his dad thing,

no?

Being, you know,

an ASEAN leader,

chummy chumps

with Vietnam ngayon,

minimit niya

leaders ng parliament nila,

ganun.

And lahat ng mga effort

na hindi ko nakita kay Digong

or yung mga ibang

Filipino presidents,

in fairness kay BBM,

no?

He's trying to reach out

to ASEAN

in the spirit of

ASEAN cooperation.

I don't know about

yung mga ano niya,

alalay na,

but I think at the level

of the president,

I think he gets it,

right?

Kung pala kay Digong,

mas seryoso si BBM

sa engagement with ASEAN.

Pero I still have to see

a strategy, eh.

Wala pa ako nakikitang

framework

na defining, no?

Siguro baka pwede kang tumulong,

no?

To define,

to define that strategy.

Pero ako,

from my vantage point,

wala pa ako nakikita.

It's more

trips,

biyahe,

yung usual MOU,

mga ganun-ganun na

nothing defining pa,

no?

Para

makita na,

oh, ito ang aking strategy

vis-a-vis ASEAN.

Ito yung aking

key result areas.

Ito yung gusto kong

maabot sa aking

2025

at saka sa end of my term.

Ito yung bubuksan ko

ng mga avenues.

Ito yung aking ilalaban

sa ASEAN, no?

Minimum, maximum.

Wala pa ako nakikitang gano'n.

Last point,

speaking of framework,

President Marco Jr.

this week,

patapos ng taon,

sinabi niya na

we need a quote

new paradigm

to deal with China.

Openly saying na yung

traditional way of diplomacy

with China,

wala kang mapapala dyan.

They will just

up and blow their way

and tuloy-tuloy

yung bullying nila.

How do you see that

this whole new paradigm thing?

Ito ba yung parang bagong

lipunan na naman yan

or he really meant it

like really a new strategic approach.

I don't know,

more multilateral

which is what you have been saying.

Maybe you should reach out

more to Latin America,

to EU,

to ASEAN,

I don't know,

to Central Asia,

to Middle East, whatever.

We might not get 10

but we might get 4, 3, 2,

right, out of 10.

That's still better than 0, right?

How do you see

the paradigm thing?

Again, no?

Katulad na sinabi ko kanina,

from my vantage point,

parang thinking out loud.

Parang it's still rhetorical.

No?

Wala pa ako nakikitang substance

kung sa sinasabi niya, no?

What do you mean

by a paradigm shift?

From what paradigm

going into what paradigm, no?

Even the contours,

wala akong nakikita, eh.

Kaya for now,

parang ang tingin ko lang diyan,

talking out loud,

rhetorical, etc., etc.

All things without follow-through.

At wala akong nakikitang ideolog,

wala akong nakikitang strategies

sa DFA

to help him out.

You're kind of a

Kissinger figure there.

Yeah.

To help him out.

Wala rin sa cabinet

ako nakikita ng gano'n.

Wala rin ako nakikita

sa Malacanang.

No?

Unless may nakikita ka

na magde-develop

ng gano'ng kwento.

Magaling sila sa PR, eh.

But you need strategic thinking, eh.

There has to be doctrinal thinking.

Kaya correct ka dyan, eh.

Yan yung inahanap ko, no?

At this point.

Kaya hindi ko makareact

sa tanong mo, eh.

Dahil for now,

wala akong nakikita naman.

That's the reaction

I was expecting,

which is,

think out loud.

You put it perfectly right.

This is the tendency.

Saying the right things,

but it's more like

thinking out loud

rather than really laying out

something there.

I think he has many good PR people

around him.

That's why he does very well

in elections.

But you really need

kind of strategic thinkers.

Like serious,

world-class strategic thinkers.

Well,

some of us are outside

the government,

but I don't know.

Let me see.

Maybe I'll figure out

something more there

in the meantime.

Thank you so much.

Anytime, Big Gar, no?

This has been one of the

blessings and joys

of this year.

These collaborations

that we have had.

And as you noticed,

as we collaborated,

I opened up all sorts

of different collaborations

right and left.

Also with Chris Tan.

Not Christian Esguerra,

but we found another Chris.

Also, you know,

he's also all over the place

kind of a good guy.

Looking forward

to our threesome

with Lelo.

Also, Lelo,

Alexander Claudia,

our good friend.

Let's do also

a proper year-ender.

Talagang,

mag-usapan natin

over the next days,

Ronald,

doan yung mga gusto natin

mag-usapan.

Parang medyo maayos

yung usapan.

Tatlo kasi magulo tayo.

Madal-dal.

Alam mo naman,

ako, host ako

kasi I wanna make sure

na ikaw boost yung topic

for the next na.

Ang problema natin

yung tatlo,

parehas tayong host,

parehas din tayong guest.

Pero ako yung,

ako yung brutal.

Ikaw yung full chrome.

Ikaw yung full chrome.

Salamat, salamat.

Thank you so much,

Sir Ronald.

God bless

and have a blessed

week and talk to you soon.

Talk to you soon.

Meron, Merry Christmas.

Merry Christmas.

Especially to your mother.

Merry Christmas, Sir.

To your family, loved ones.

Tsaka yung anak mong,

ano,

the best.

God bless.