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00:00.6
Okay, Sir Ronald Llamas, yung isa sa mga pinaka-reputable survey agencies ng bayan,
00:08.7
itong publicus, parang small letter pa yung isang letter, tapos capital yung iba,
00:16.3
ay pinakita na hindi na si Erwin Tulfo, hindi na si Tito Boy Soto.
00:22.1
Ang number one favorite to top the Senate race in 2025, almost a year from now,
00:29.1
is former President Rodrigo Duterte.
00:32.1
What I found interesting with this survey is that President Duterte only gets below 50% preference rate
00:38.1
and his trust ratings are barely above 50%.
00:41.1
So even by the standards of this survey, he's way below the 80-90% that he supposedly enjoyed when he was a politician.
00:48.1
What do you make out of this survey, Sir Ronald Llamas,
00:52.0
before we go to the implications of whether he's going to run for the Senate?
00:56.5
Of course, that's not going to give him immunity for ICC,
00:58.6
but that could be a bridgehead for him to fight back against BBM and protect his daughter.
01:03.2
Mamaya na yan. Pero dito muna tayo sa first part. Anong basa mo muna dito sa survey na yan?
01:10.4
Well, tama yung sinabi mo, Big R, na half-full, half-empty yan eh.
01:16.7
Yung half-empty, yung bilanggit mo, na kung ikukumparado sa kanyang traditional survey results when he was a president,
01:26.4
medyo malayo yan.
01:27.5
Tapos yan, senador pa. Hindi pa yan presidente.
01:31.4
So halos nahati, nawala yung 40% nung kanyang traditional approval at popularity rating.
01:41.7
Ikalawa, very reputable yung survey firm na yan.
01:47.2
Diyan yata, isa yata sa nagtayo niyan, si paborito mong political analyst, si Malutikia.
01:57.5
Na hindi naman tinatago na siya ay Duterte loyalist at this point.
02:03.9
At this point, dahil nagbago yata siya ng loyalty nito mga nakaraang mga taon.
02:09.9
Pero, ito yung chinelas ni Lenny dati. Ano ba talaga nangyari?
02:15.5
Ito yung despise, again, yung mga ganyan nung last elections.
02:21.5
Kaya nga, at this point, ang loyalty niya kay Duterte.
02:25.4
Kaya, baka mabawasan yung credibility niyang survey firm na yan.
02:34.0
Kung yung nagtayo niyan, o isa sa mga nagtayo at nagpatakbo, ay loyalist ng Duterte ngayon.
02:41.6
Pero, pagbigyan na natin.
02:43.6
Pagbigyan na natin na, ang tawag mo, disreputable.
02:49.8
Pagbigyan na natin na reputable yung survey firm na yan.
03:25.2
masasang presyo ng salt
03:26.4
kasi medyo mataas pa rin
03:28.0
ang presyo ng mga piliin.
03:30.2
So, let's go to the next part.
03:33.4
do you think that Duterte
03:34.5
is really gonna run for the Senate?
03:37.4
Or is he just dangling it
03:39.9
I'm not completely irrelevant?
03:41.6
And then let's go to the next part.
03:42.9
Assuming he will run for Senate,
03:44.6
then what's the next step for him?
03:45.9
Well, before kasi pinag-uusapan,
03:47.9
saan ba siya politically
03:49.4
mas viable tumakbo?
03:51.0
Congress sa Dabao
03:52.1
or senator sa midterm?
03:58.2
kung gusto niyang irally
03:59.5
yung kanyang natitirang mga loyalists,
04:02.2
yung kanyang natitirang mga DDS,
04:04.6
yung natitirang niyang mga troops,
04:07.1
ay kailangan niya mag-scale up.
04:12.3
At pwede siyang mag-scale up
04:14.3
as a mass leader,
04:15.7
pero parang hindi naman bagay sa kanya
04:18.5
So, baka mag-scale up siya
04:22.1
That's a very distinct possibility.
04:25.3
Dahil hindi lang niya
04:26.5
irally yung troops,
04:28.9
pwede niyang batakin
04:30.3
yung mga member ng PDP laban
04:33.0
na medyo nasabingit,
04:34.7
katulad ni Batodo de la Rosa,
04:37.5
katulad ni Francis Tolentino,
04:39.8
or kung sino pa yung
04:40.9
isasama nila sa slate
04:42.7
dun sa new opposition
04:45.7
So, pwede siyang makatulong
04:47.6
para batakin yan.
04:48.9
Yung kanyang political capital,
04:50.2
pwede niyang ipahiram sa iba.
04:52.1
Dahil parang hindi masyadong
04:54.8
nagagamit nung kanyang daughter,
04:57.0
yung kanyang political capital.
04:58.7
Parang hindi naitap-transfer
05:03.4
but the transferability of charisma
05:05.3
is something Max Weber
05:06.3
has been debating over.
05:08.2
I mean, the daughter,
05:10.2
well, his name's Duterte
05:11.5
and she tried to put up the performance,
05:13.7
yung sapak-sapak ng mga piskal ganyan.
05:15.8
Pero transferable ba yan
05:18.3
Does the bongo and bato
05:20.5
success in the 2019?
05:22.1
Elections tell you
05:23.1
that it's transferable?
05:24.3
I mean, what is your read on that?
05:26.2
Well, to some extent,
05:28.1
Alimbawa, kay bongo.
05:30.4
hindi ko sigurado
05:32.1
at saka kay Francis Tolentino.
05:38.0
halos mas malapit pa sa kanya
05:40.2
kaya sa mga anak niya.
05:46.7
Talagang yun yung kanyang
05:47.9
parang tunay na anak.
05:49.2
Kinabaan ako bigla.
05:50.5
Like, who was it?
05:51.2
Wait, where is this?
05:51.9
Wait, where is this?
05:52.1
Where is this conversation going?
05:55.3
at least kay bongo,
05:56.2
medyo na transfer.
05:60.0
kahit saan pumunta si Digong,
06:02.2
Kaya na-equate sa kanya.
06:04.9
iba yung mga tipo
06:06.6
ni Francis Tolentino,
06:14.0
This midterm election,
06:19.1
bumaba rin naman talaga
06:20.2
yung kanyang approval
06:21.9
popularity rating.
06:24.5
ay baka hindi ganung kadali
06:29.9
magbubuo sila ng slate.
06:31.7
Na magbubuo sila ng slate
06:34.3
Kaya yung mga iba dyan
06:36.8
at least yung attempt
06:40.5
possible na pagtampo,
06:44.5
Whether makahatak niya o hindi
06:46.3
is another thing.
06:48.5
medyo hindi na ganung kataas
06:50.8
popularity rating.
06:51.7
Popularity at saka
06:55.1
patuloy na bababayan
06:56.3
habang dumidistansya
07:01.0
President Duterte image
07:03.6
parating na midterm.
07:06.0
he doesn't look as strong
07:07.3
and decisive as in 2016.
07:10.1
and let's not forget,
07:12.6
machinery of the state
07:14.7
the certain candidates
07:16.3
That's not gonna be the case
07:19.1
It's gonna be the other way around.
07:20.4
The machinery of the state
07:21.7
And yung highest niya,
07:23.6
at yung highest niya,
07:28.8
Yung Pulse Asia Survey
07:34.7
parang inasarasal pa niya
07:37.4
sabi niya dun sa isang
07:39.5
I think that's the second
07:40.2
or last time niya.
07:41.9
3% lang ayo sa atin
07:43.4
tapos pinagtawanan.
07:46.8
na hindi siya prefer
07:53.7
he doesn't have the power
07:56.1
Yes, dahil alam mo naman
07:58.2
ang mahalaga sa mga surveys
08:00.4
yung absolute numbers.
08:03.6
ay, siya yung pinakamataas.
08:05.6
ang pinakamahalaga
08:06.3
is the movement of numbers.
08:08.2
San ba siya nang galing?
08:09.6
San ba siya nagsimula?
08:11.1
At nasa na ba siya ngayon?
08:13.7
nagsimula siya sa
08:15.8
Oo, ngayon ay 50,
08:18.4
Eh, medyo significant yun.
08:20.4
Kahit siya yung number,
08:22.5
dito sa very disreputable,
08:24.9
ah, very reputable
08:31.7
medyo magmaritas tayo na konti.
08:35.6
pro-Duterte people
08:41.0
was not able to do it
08:43.5
but he just acted out
08:46.6
former political advisor
08:47.5
of President Duterte
08:52.0
Senator Francis Tolentino,
08:53.7
he resigned recently
08:54.9
from the Blue Ribbon Commission.
08:57.3
Anong paasa mo doon?
08:59.0
Because some people are
08:59.9
reading a lot into it.
09:03.9
he's not doing good
09:06.3
he's changing tone
09:07.3
and biglang pro-West Philippines
09:09.2
considering he was
09:09.7
the political advisor
09:11.1
Anong sinasabi niya
09:11.7
when Digong was selling out
09:13.2
our country by some,
09:14.8
from some certain
09:16.7
Like, what's going on?
09:17.5
What's this drama
09:18.5
with Francis Tolentino?
09:22.1
parang meron namang
09:27.4
At mukhang tapos na
09:28.4
yung kanyang term
09:30.9
sa kasunduan na yun.
09:41.1
marami sa humawak
09:43.0
ay hindi na gamit
09:50.8
Head siya ng Blue Ribbon.
09:51.5
For several years.
09:53.9
noong tumakbo siya.
09:58.1
Matagal din siyang
09:59.5
Hindi rin niya na gamit.
10:01.3
hindi assurance yung
10:03.0
na ikaw ay mananalo.
10:07.1
magiging re-electionist ka.
10:10.5
mukhang gusto niya mag-focus
10:12.3
bagong committee,
10:13.3
yung Maritime Committee
10:15.5
Dahil ang tingin niya
10:22.4
Critical sa aggression
10:24.9
na nag-i-scaling up
10:28.3
baka doon niya gusto mag-focus
10:29.7
rather than Blue Ribbon.
10:31.0
Baka mas nakikita niya
10:36.4
ay yun ang makakasalba.
10:38.8
Yun yung makakasalba.
10:45.8
ng South China Sea
10:48.7
In the previous election,
10:49.7
hindi masyado, eh.
10:53.3
at magiging election issue
10:55.0
itong South China Sea,
10:56.8
itong West Philippine Sea,
10:58.3
itong Chinese aggression.
10:59.9
Baka yun yung kanyang calculation.
11:02.3
Dahil hindi niya magamit
11:03.4
yung Blue Ribbon, eh.
11:05.5
yung kanyang ratings.
11:11.0
na tinayo ng Senado
11:12.1
na pinamumunuan niya
11:15.5
baka maging vulnerable siya
11:17.3
baka banatan siya
11:22.3
Duterte government.
11:23.6
At ang trabaho mo
11:24.4
parang trabaho ni
11:28.6
the political advisor
11:30.4
from what the president thinks.
11:33.1
magkantrabaho kayo,
11:34.0
political advisor kayo,
11:39.2
the Blue Ribbon Commission thing,
11:41.3
if the president's unpopular,
11:42.9
there are big scandals,
11:44.1
you oversee investigation,
11:45.5
medyo pwede kang magpapogi,
11:46.8
but that's impossible
11:47.6
when the president's fresh
11:48.8
and still popular.
11:51.2
we're not as fans of BBM,
11:52.6
but that's the political agency.
11:54.2
And you're absolutely correct.
11:55.3
If there's a place
11:57.6
that's the West Philippine Sea.
11:58.7
But you have to have credibility.
12:00.6
You have to have authenticity.
12:02.2
You have to be someone
12:03.1
who actually stood up
12:04.2
for West Philippine Sea
12:05.1
when the president of republic
12:06.6
was standing for China.
12:08.5
So this is three years ago,
12:12.5
Not this year lang,
12:16.9
you have to respect
12:18.7
You have to also respect,
12:20.3
the opinion makers and all.
12:21.6
They track people.
12:22.6
They know yung evolution
12:24.9
Whether this is a reflection
12:28.0
the facts have changed.
12:29.0
So that's my opinion.
12:30.1
Or whether this is part of,
12:31.9
kailangan kong mag-change doon
12:33.5
kasi kailangan natin
12:34.7
manalo next year.
12:35.8
Medyo alanganin sila,
12:37.6
I think Bongo still has
12:38.6
a good chance of making it
12:39.7
to the Senate next year.
12:42.5
Yeah, medyo alanganin sila eh.
12:44.1
So it's not as...
12:45.4
babakan tingin kasi
12:46.6
nito mga senador na ito
12:50.4
habang yung kanilang boss
12:52.0
ay naging malinaw na pro-China,
12:57.4
in our post-modern world,
12:59.6
in our social media-centric world,
13:02.9
eh pag nagsuot ka ng t-shirt
13:05.7
ay makakalimutan niya
13:07.3
yung pagiging pro-China, no?
13:12.7
Baka na-underestimate mo kasi
13:14.2
yung ating post-modern
13:15.6
social media-centric world.
13:18.5
nanalo naman si PP eh.
13:20.3
Masyado kang Weberian eh.
13:21.9
Masyado kang Weberian, no?
13:26.0
naniwala naman ako
13:27.0
sa parades na post-modern.
13:27.8
Masyado kang bali eh.
13:29.4
masyado kang modernist eh.
13:31.4
mga senador na ito,
13:33.1
madaling kalimutan
13:34.1
yung kilang-anim na taon
13:36.0
na pagiging pro-China.
13:40.7
ng West Philippine Sea.
13:41.7
West Philippine Sea.
13:42.7
Tapos fitted pa, no?
13:48.5
natin yan, Ronald.
13:49.5
May mga ganun tayong
13:50.3
mga kuladong, ano,
13:54.8
For me kasi, Ronald,
13:56.1
dapat may cake ka rin.
13:57.6
anyone can make a comment
13:58.7
on West Philippine Sea
13:59.5
and I welcome everyone
14:00.5
to make a comment.
14:01.3
Bakit na iba pa rin
14:04.4
sa ganitong field
14:05.4
sa foreign policy
14:06.8
when Justice Carpio says it.
14:08.5
It's very different
14:10.2
ex-produterte person
14:12.7
pro-West Philippine Sea.
14:15.0
malaking agwat yan,
14:16.3
The level of respect
14:19.6
Authenticity matters
14:20.6
kasi even if it's contrived
14:23.2
But let's go back to Digong.
14:24.7
Let's say Digong runs.
14:29.6
high level of work ethic.
14:31.5
We expect him to be there
14:37.9
and wait to be elected.
14:39.9
just chilled in Davao
14:41.8
top three senators,
14:42.9
if not number one.
14:43.8
Let's say natalo niya
14:44.5
si Erwin Tulfo, right?
14:47.3
to be the top senator.
14:48.5
What do you think
14:49.1
could happen next
14:49.8
if Digong is in the Senate?
14:51.6
he can effectively
14:52.4
mobilize that seat
14:54.5
to be a bridgehead
14:57.0
against the BBM administration?
15:00.3
kung nasa top three siya
15:06.9
yung entablado na yan
15:09.4
yung kanyang anak
15:14.5
magiging role niya.
15:20.7
na mga kampanyador eh.
15:23.1
Kung yan yung mga
15:24.3
magsusuporta sa kanyang anak,
15:26.4
hindi magiging efficient.
15:32.6
Hindi ganun kaklose.
15:34.4
isa nga yan sa dahilan
15:43.7
yung vice president niya
15:48.4
hindi makakatulong
15:49.8
kakampi ng PDP laban
15:57.0
Mas yung role na yan,
15:58.1
baka nandun sa presidente
16:03.5
ang laking if niyan eh.
16:04.9
Hindi lang malaking if.
16:08.1
Dahil ang assumption
16:09.6
hindi siya kukuni
16:14.5
ng ICC next year,
16:16.3
abot sa midterms.
16:19.3
aabot sa midterms.
16:20.9
mas yung mga survey na yan,
16:25.2
Drama lang yan eh.
16:35.1
Not in the next year.
16:42.2
survival mode na ito eh.
17:20.4
already looking at
17:22.6
foreign visits natin
17:24.3
dyan in the first
17:26.3
May Europe na naman
17:28.0
Kailangan natin ng
17:29.4
to start the year
17:39.6
nangyari this year?
17:44.4
state visit sa China.
17:46.0
At nagpromisa yung
17:54.0
doon sa $22 billion.
17:58.1
marami ron mga rehash eh
18:01.9
na hindi rin nila
18:20.1
ni President Bongbong
18:24.7
Kung hindi pumasok
18:43.8
foreign direct investment
18:52.8
pumasok next year,
19:00.9
yan yung gagamitin
19:03.5
Yan ang gagamitin
19:14.0
dito sa taong ito,
19:20.3
Dapat yung MOU na yan,
19:24.0
madideliver this year,
19:25.1
dahil ilang araw na lang,
19:27.3
madeliver next year.
19:35.1
ay yung politika.
19:40.2
Natapos yung taon,
19:41.8
parang hindi lang
19:43.3
unity ng unit team,
19:46.9
Nagsimula na yung
19:49.0
with the criticism
19:50.1
of Vice President
19:52.1
dun sa peace talks
19:53.6
ni President Bongbong
19:55.3
with the communists,
19:58.1
ikalawa na mahalagang
19:59.5
pangyayari this year.
20:13.1
yung nakita natin
20:21.8
gift-giving mission.
20:23.8
Ang nakaharap nila
20:26.9
Ang nakaharap nila
20:29.4
Ang nakaharap nila
20:33.6
People's Liberation
20:39.7
malinaw na scaling up.
20:46.6
territorial waters
20:54.3
Napakalapit na yan
20:57.6
At yung pagbobomba
21:00.3
Bureau of Fisheries
21:03.9
and Aquatic Resources
21:14.6
BLP Sierra Madre.
21:20.2
at kaunting pagkain
21:34.4
ganun yung scaling up
21:36.0
is also very significant.
21:38.0
Kung maghahanap tayo
21:39.8
significant aspects
21:52.1
nagsimula ka sa taon
22:07.8
Ano yung susunod?
22:09.6
Ano yung susunod?
22:10.7
Nanakot pa si Wang Yi.
22:12.9
Yung latest statement
22:19.5
West Philippine Sea
22:24.5
ng Philippine government?
22:29.6
warning ni Wang Yi
22:34.4
Well, I quoted him
22:35.8
in a number of articles.
22:38.4
the thing is this,
22:40.1
everything you mentioned,
22:42.0
I think they're gonna come
22:43.8
because early this year,
22:45.4
BBM is gonna go to Vietnam.
22:47.2
So, that's gonna be
22:49.7
So, he's gonna still
22:50.7
go to Asian country
22:51.8
but Vietnam is a very
22:53.0
interesting case, right?
22:55.4
is the only country
22:56.6
that can potentially be
23:00.7
my concerns with ASEAN.
23:02.6
I called ASEAN 10
23:03.5
as just north of useless
23:04.6
on West Philippine Sea
23:05.5
but I always believed
23:08.6
middle-lateral cooperation
23:09.9
and I think Vietnam is big.
23:13.1
making sure they become
23:13.8
real investments,
23:14.6
I think Vietnam is the only country
23:15.2
is the best country
23:16.0
for BBM to get advice from.
23:17.9
I think the Vietnamese
23:20.8
travel-travel ka lang.
23:22.1
You have to create
23:22.8
the investment conditions
23:24.2
and you have to play
23:25.3
the diplomacy very smartly
23:26.8
if you're gonna get investments.
23:28.6
Vietnam is getting investments
23:30.0
because of geography,
23:31.0
because of party-party relations
23:32.4
because, you know,
23:33.3
it's good just to invest
23:35.3
but Vietnam has not also,
23:38.7
taken a soft stance
23:40.2
dun sa kanilang disputes.
23:41.3
They're still very tough.
23:42.5
So, they're getting
23:43.2
the best of both worlds.
23:45.3
dun sa kanilang national interest,
23:47.3
At the same time,
23:48.2
the best possible investment
23:49.2
from both West, East,
23:52.2
no matter how you wanna put it.
23:53.4
that will set the tone
23:55.4
for our next episode
23:56.4
when we're gonna discuss
23:58.6
three or four or five
23:60.0
big political news
24:01.6
and events for you
24:04.4
two or three big things
24:05.6
you're looking forward to
24:08.8
Sir Ronald Llamas,
24:10.3
former presidential advisor
24:17.2
the future podcaster
24:21.2
si Sir Ronald Llamas.
24:24.2
Thank you, Big R.
24:25.9
ex-human rights lawyer.
24:29.0
human rights activist.
24:31.5
Lalo pag tapos na
24:32.7
yung ICC investigation,
24:34.9
andiyan ka na naman.
24:36.3
makakote ng international.
24:37.9
Thank you so much.
24:39.3
and talk to you soon.
