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00:00.0
Leloy, wala pa rin.
00:02.1
Ayan, ayan. Dito na tayo.
00:04.0
Sorry, wala pa rin si Leloy. Mukhang yung internet niya.
00:06.4
Worse than me pa. Kaya
00:07.5
R&R lang muna tayo.
00:10.1
Ito na, ito na. Boss Ronald, pag-usapan
00:12.0
natin. Ito na. Si
00:13.6
Harry Roque, ex-human rights
00:16.0
lawyer slash ex-presidential
00:17.9
spokesman slash future.
00:20.5
You never know, di ba? Baka naman
00:21.9
maging spokesman ulit na yung sa P30.
00:24.2
Just in case things work their way, which is
00:26.0
malaba at this point in time. Well, medyo
00:27.8
inamin niya na, well, he confirmed
00:30.0
yung sinasabi mo na ISIS
00:32.0
is already here. So mukhang
00:33.9
niluluto na daw yung essentially
00:35.9
yung arrest warrant.
00:38.6
Degong, but potentially
00:42.0
also Sara Duterte. And then may
00:43.5
mayroon siyang Ronald
00:45.5
Diamas style na, hindi naman
00:47.6
magkakoron ng gulo, pero pwede magkakoron ng gulo.
00:49.7
Pero hindi ko sinasabi na magkakoron ng gulo.
00:51.7
Mayroon siyang mga
00:52.3
Ronald Diamas. Parang her chat ako
00:55.5
kinumpara mo kay Harry Roque.
00:57.8
I mean, sabi nga nila,
00:59.6
mimicry is the greatest form of
01:03.8
dapat yun. Ginagaya ko
01:05.5
yung hindi ko sinasabi, pero sinasabi
01:07.8
ko na hindi ko sinasabi.
01:10.5
Parang hindi ako na-fluttered.
01:14.5
I'm just saying, malay mo, Ronald.
01:16.0
Hindi ko nag-invento yung hindi ko
01:17.7
sinabi yung sinabi ko.
01:19.3
Pero ito, ito, ito. Bossing,
01:21.6
sa tingin mo, desperate mode
01:23.6
na ba talaga itong mga
01:24.8
DDS people? I mean, why would
01:27.8
Harry Roque openly say that? Is he trying to
01:31.5
for the DDS people? Try to bring them
01:33.7
out? Why would he even use the word gulo?
01:35.5
Is this a threat already to the administration?
01:39.5
Well, una is continuation to
01:41.6
nung kanyang nakaraang
01:43.5
podcast before Christmas, di ba?
01:48.4
Ikaw lang nahikinig na galing sa
01:52.5
Na inamin niya na
01:55.4
alam na nila na yung
01:57.6
presidente nagbigay ng ghost signal
01:59.5
para sa ICC na pumasok.
02:01.7
Hindi na si Speaker Martin
02:03.3
kung hindi yung presidente mismo.
02:05.3
At ang pinanggalingan niyan ay yung mga
02:07.3
destabilization at saka cool rumors.
02:09.9
Nasabi ni Harry Roque
02:11.2
ay walang batayan.
02:18.4
dahil hindi naman yan bago,
02:20.0
pinag-uusapan na yan natin one, two months ago,
02:23.1
ang bago doon is the
02:26.1
naniniwala sila na
02:27.5
yung presidente na, the backstops
02:29.7
with the president sa issue ng
02:31.4
ICC. Ngayon naman
02:33.7
ay ang mahalaga sa kanyang
02:35.6
inamin. Ito ay mga
02:37.8
pag-amin eh, nung alam nila.
02:39.8
Nang matagal na nating alam.
02:45.7
ICC sooner or later
02:49.4
the first half of the year.
02:55.0
for the first time na kasama si
03:02.3
Pwede natin pag-usapan
03:03.7
yun dahil medyo may
03:05.3
kaunti akong reservations doon
03:10.5
inamin niya na magkakagulo
03:14.2
implement. Hindi yung gulo na ginagawa
03:16.6
ni Richard Haidarian.
03:18.2
Itaw niya sinabi yun.
03:22.3
Ang problema ko kasi pag pinapadala
03:27.5
yung tape nung podcast ni
03:29.3
ex human rights lawyer
03:32.6
ang dami reaction.
03:34.8
Ayokong pakinggan yan, etc.
03:37.1
Sa akin naman, basic suntsu.
03:42.9
Know what the other side of me is.
03:47.9
Pero yung mga pinapadala ko,
03:49.3
ayaw talaga makinig.
03:51.1
Ayaw lang na nakikinig
03:52.5
kay ex human rights lawyer
03:57.5
Kaya kung wala kalagay yung
03:58.8
continuing confirmation.
04:01.6
Inaayos ko lang itong malaking
04:02.8
crocodile na buhay ako dito
04:04.7
para makita ng ano
04:06.6
para makita yung passion natin
04:08.8
kasi uso na mga buhay
04:12.1
Very unrelated naman.
04:13.6
Maraming kayo nakuha ng Pasko ha.
04:15.2
Mayroon kang mga crocodile ha.
04:16.9
Lumaki pa mga crocodile ko.
04:19.1
Last year, maliit lang.
04:23.3
Congress yung crocodile na yun.
04:25.8
Queen Hills pero di ko maram sa'yo.
04:27.5
Sasyado nang malaking
04:31.3
bossing Ronald ha.
04:35.6
aminin mo Ronald.
04:36.4
Bago tayo pupunta sa
04:37.1
substantive discussion,
04:39.1
na i-entertain ka talaga
04:43.0
ang ex human rights lawyer TV.
04:49.5
tatanungin ako ng mga
04:50.6
Richard A. Darian.
04:52.8
Kaya kailangan kong panawarin.
04:54.1
Kahit ako na lang
04:57.5
Pero interesting yung
05:00.9
kanyang mga confirmation.
05:02.5
Huwag niyong papayagan
05:04.3
ang ICC na i-implement
05:06.1
yung international warrant
05:07.5
dahil magkakagulo.
05:09.2
Kahit hindi ko gusto
05:11.9
mag-organize ng gulo.
05:16.2
May feng shul daw.
05:18.0
second quarter daw
05:21.0
ang gulon mangyari
05:22.1
Meron siyang mga ganun.
05:23.5
Well, dapat naman
05:25.0
natin hindi tignan yan
05:29.5
ay konektado dyan.
05:31.2
Itong mga withdrawal
05:37.2
yung mga sinasabi
05:40.5
possible na gulo.
05:42.5
Ang problema kasi
05:50.0
yung options nila.
06:04.9
kung hindi nila hawak
06:06.1
yung chain of command.
06:08.4
withdrawal of support
06:09.3
medyo nakakatawa yan.
06:10.5
Kung wala ka sa loob
06:11.4
na chain of command.
06:12.7
Saan ka nagwi-withdraw?
06:14.1
Baka ibang withdrawal
06:14.9
yung iniisip nila.
06:21.4
Baka magkaroon tayo
06:23.6
may PRC din tayo.
06:26.6
yung people power.
06:27.4
Yung uprising insurrection
06:29.6
na pinaplano nila
06:31.2
ay medyo may hirapan din.
06:33.5
Dahil yung kanilang
06:41.2
yung sasamad sa kanila.
06:44.6
na talagang sinuportahan
06:46.0
ng Iglesia ni Cristo
06:49.4
medyo hirap sila dyan.
06:53.4
Kaya itong sinasabi ni Roque
06:55.5
ay bahagi ng kanilang
06:56.7
political narrative.
06:57.4
Na huwag nyo nalang
06:59.0
huwag nyo nang galawin si Digong.
07:01.0
At lalong huwag nyo nang
07:03.4
dahil magkakagulo.
07:11.6
Wala siyang daw sinabi.
07:12.9
Wala daw siya sinabi.
07:15.7
Nanginilig ako sa takot eh.
07:17.0
Habang pinapakinggan ko siya,
07:18.9
delikado pala tayo lahat.
07:22.1
Ginagaya na tayo.
07:24.2
Bago nang inagfog na
07:25.4
itong Maharlika Shades.
07:29.2
Balikan natin itong issue.
07:32.3
Parang hindi nila nag-gets.
07:33.7
Kasi parating nila
07:34.3
sinasabi rin niya,
07:35.9
pinaka-popular daw siya.
07:38.3
popular mga Dutertes.
07:40.1
Narinig ko dun sa
07:44.8
kay Sara Dutertes.
07:46.5
reminding the people
07:47.6
of not only their mandate
07:48.8
but their base and support.
07:51.0
this is how the math works.
07:52.2
Out of the 32 milyon
07:54.7
more than 31 milyon
08:00.5
including more than
08:05.0
Hindi dahil natutuwa
08:06.7
dahil natutuwa sila
08:08.2
ay hindi sumusunod
08:11.9
And more importantly,
08:13.4
sa West Philippine Sea issue,
08:16.9
ng ating mga kababayan
08:19.3
dito sa direction
08:20.0
ng ating foreign policy.
08:22.2
hindi nila nag-gets
08:31.4
is already 31 milyon.
08:32.8
Idagdag mo pa yung
08:38.2
Pag sinamuha yan,
08:39.8
major checkmate sila.
08:41.2
And this is the thing,
08:43.0
the last time I saw
08:44.0
na may mga lumabas
08:45.9
na nag-rally sila,
08:48.0
pito na Duterte youth
08:49.5
nandiyan sa luneta,
08:54.5
sa Supreme Court,
08:57.0
pa-aerial shot nga yan.
09:00.0
you're a mobilization guy.
09:02.1
You're a pakulu guy.
09:04.3
nung six years ni Digong,
09:06.1
ato silang malalaking rally,
09:10.1
sa Marikina ba yan
09:11.5
konting ulan lang,
09:13.6
Parang may mga accusations pa,
09:14.9
ginamit pa yung mga barangay
09:16.1
jeepney to bring people in.
09:17.6
As soon as may konting ulan,
09:18.9
nagsiguyan ng mga tao.
09:20.7
this looks like a populist
09:22.1
who doesn't have much of
09:25.6
He cannot bring warm bodies
09:27.4
Hindi natin nakita yan.
09:28.6
the last time na I really saw
09:30.7
was meeting the avansan niya
09:32.1
na pa-aerial shot sila
09:36.9
negligible yung numbers of people
09:39.5
hindi counting yung elections,
09:40.5
di bang usapan niya.
09:41.1
I'm talking about rally,
09:45.8
sila Hugo Chavez,
09:47.4
sila Narendra Modi,
09:49.1
they can bring millions of people
09:51.0
Or they could bring
09:51.8
in the case of the
09:54.2
he doesn't look like
09:55.1
a very strong populist.
09:57.0
Wala siyang on-ground movement.
09:58.5
And the only effort
09:59.3
to really build that kind of
10:00.7
grassroots movement,
10:03.1
yung kilusan para sa pagbabago,
10:05.5
that was already vetoed,
10:09.3
last time I checked,
10:10.3
Or some of the more
10:11.2
less traditional-minded
10:14.3
anong ambasa mo dito?
10:15.7
Do they even have
10:17.8
Significant warm bodies?
10:20.2
geography aspect.
10:21.5
Tanggap ko sa Mindanao,
10:22.6
talagang popular talaga
10:24.0
Kaya ikaw, Ronald,
10:25.1
huwag ka muna masyadong
10:27.6
Marami tayong minamahal
10:29.1
dyan sa Davao and all.
10:31.2
yung kailangan mag-ingat.
10:32.5
Medyo ibang usapan niyan.
10:34.3
going back to this,
10:38.4
tanggap ko marami mga
10:39.4
almost fanatic supporters.
10:40.8
Let's just call it
10:53.7
yung mga never-Duterte types.
10:55.8
And I think the West Philippines issue,
10:57.8
the China hatred,
11:01.2
a completely gigantic
11:06.2
almost checkmate sila.
11:07.3
If it's a question of numbers,
11:09.0
I don't think they can bring
11:10.1
as many people out.
11:11.0
Especially dito sa
11:11.7
Imperial Manila, no?
11:18.0
yung mga narinig ko
11:19.0
ng mga political analysts,
11:21.0
na hindi mo naman katulad,
11:24.7
medyo nagsusuring maigi
11:26.2
ng mga numbers nila.
11:28.1
the context behind the numbers,
11:32.0
parang baka kulang
11:34.6
yung kanilang pagsusuri.
11:36.0
isang political analyst
11:38.5
ang taas-taas pa ni Digong,
11:40.3
Lalo na itong latest survey
12:05.0
a popular president.
12:07.0
Magkaiba yun, no?
12:11.0
ang tinitingnan kasi natin,
12:14.3
absolute numbers, eh.
12:15.9
Ang tinitingnan natin
12:16.9
yung movement of numbers,
12:18.6
Yung highest ni Digong,
12:20.9
yung highest ni Digong,
12:21.0
was December 2020
12:22.9
nung kalagitnaan ng pandemic
12:25.6
at nagbibigay sila ng maraming
12:27.4
ayuda, nakakuha siya ng
12:32.0
Sabi nga ni Digong
12:33.2
nung panahon na yun,
12:34.1
3% lang yung ayaw sa atin.
12:37.4
Sa zona yan, nagdawa na tayo.
12:40.8
isasama mo yung margin of error,
12:47.6
ngayon, alimbawa,
12:48.9
itong survey na ito, 50%,
12:50.5
that's a long jump from 91, 92%.
12:54.8
automatic na yung boboto
12:56.7
sa'yo for the Senate
12:58.2
ay susuportahan ka sa isang
13:00.7
people power revolt or
13:04.7
destabilization against a
13:06.6
president na makakatulad
13:09.2
mo lang yung ratings.
13:12.7
Kaya baka kinakailangan
13:14.5
i-deconstruct natin itong mga numbers na ito.
13:16.8
Anong ibig sabihin niya?
13:18.9
ako narinig na isang political analyst
13:22.7
kung tutugisin si Digong,
13:25.4
baka pumunta sa kanya
13:26.8
yung simpatsya dahil siya ay magiging
13:30.9
mahirap siya ay ma-imagine.
13:40.7
pwede pa, pero underdog
13:43.7
Hindi na siya tatay, lolo na siya.
13:45.8
Are they going to play that age card?
13:48.9
No, kailangan nyo na magpahinga.
13:50.7
Kawawa naman siya.
13:51.9
You think they're gonna biglang may wheelchair na yung mga ganon?
13:54.8
Kung papasahin mo si Montalban,
13:56.7
ang kanyang sinasabi
13:58.5
ay kumpara nung height
14:01.3
ng popularity ni Digong.
14:02.6
Ngayon ay mayroong kaunting
14:06.4
Ang tawag niya ay
14:11.9
nung pumunta siya sa korte,
14:13.6
yung kaso na hinabla siya
14:18.9
Nag-mobilize sila.
14:21.3
It was just a handful.
14:23.1
Yung pumunta sa korte para magpakita ng support
14:27.1
Unless huge organized forces
14:29.8
ang tutulong sa kanya dito,
14:33.1
makakaharness siya
14:41.6
lagi natin pinag-usapan,
14:43.1
this is a defining
14:45.5
moment para sa mga Duterte.
14:47.7
Dahil kung wala silang
14:48.7
gagawin within the next
14:50.7
four to six months,
14:52.7
baka matapos na yung
14:55.3
political career.
15:00.9
Baka mawala na sila ng political future
15:03.1
kung pasok na rito
15:05.1
a few weeks back,
15:08.5
Dahil kung lalabas yung international warrant,
15:10.7
eh, i-enforce yan.
15:13.3
At kung sila ay papapasukin,
15:14.9
ibig sabihin susuportahan sila ng gobyerno
15:16.8
to enforce the warrant.
15:18.7
Hindi naman sila papabaya
15:19.6
ang mamasakir sa Davao.
15:22.1
Halimbawa, kung Interpol
15:23.5
ang mag-i-implement yan.
15:24.9
Siyempre, susuportahan yan
15:26.3
ng all the forces of the state
15:28.7
which is supposed to have
15:30.8
a monopoly on coercive power.
15:33.6
mapapag-i-aralan yung gobyerno.
15:35.0
German definition,
15:36.2
but this is Davao.
15:38.2
Pero, may 300 guns daw si Digong.
15:40.7
Sabi ng Rappler, eh.
15:42.0
More than 300 guns.
15:43.5
Pero mahirap nang,
15:44.8
dahil dalawa lang yung kamay mo,
15:46.1
mahirap gamitin yun.
15:48.6
The Punisher, no?
15:49.9
Parang si The Punisher,
15:52.1
dami niyang barel, diba?
15:56.1
si Indy Bong, no?
15:57.0
Makamahirapan siya
15:59.4
anong taon na ba siya?
16:02.6
But he didn't age very well.
16:07.7
people in their 90s.
16:09.7
I'm not sure, you know,
16:10.7
he aged that well
16:11.4
compared to them.
16:13.1
going back to this,
16:14.9
I mean, ako sigurado ako na
16:16.3
there's gonna be a show force
16:19.1
And maybe some of the
16:20.4
bigger cities in Visayas
16:22.6
kung saan meron talagang
16:23.5
residual support.
16:24.5
Hindi lang si Digaong,
16:25.3
pero si Sarah Duterte
16:27.6
number two in the country
16:28.7
and potential presidential
16:30.3
ball down the road, no?
16:31.2
So, I won't be surprised
16:32.5
seeing some, you know,
16:33.5
some rally in Davao.
16:38.4
But your contention is that,
16:41.0
that will not be enough
16:42.2
to move the needle,
16:45.1
the organs of the state.
16:46.3
It's threatening.
16:47.1
Some of their forces
16:50.3
Mag-secesed daw yung Mindanao,
16:52.1
which I greatly doubt.
16:54.0
Southern Mindanao,
16:58.3
malakas ang influence
16:59.2
dyan ni Pacquiao, no?
17:01.1
Kapatid niya yung governor, no?
17:03.6
Asawa ng kanyang kapatid,
17:05.7
ng General Santos.
17:07.4
Marami siyang mga mayors
17:08.7
na supportado siya
17:10.4
sa South Cotabato.
17:13.0
of Southern Mindanao,
17:14.3
halong sigurado ko
17:15.0
hindi sasama dyan
17:15.8
sa secession na yan, no?
17:24.2
Hindi sasama yan.
17:25.9
ang Basilan is more yellow.
17:28.7
yung in-endorse sila,
17:30.7
yung pink-pink sila
17:40.1
ang in-endorse nila
17:43.3
ang in-endorse nila.
17:44.1
Exactly, exactly.
17:52.1
yung kanilang lugar,
17:58.3
that's not on the table,
18:06.0
I know some of the other
18:08.0
kuna yung former speaker,
18:09.0
you know who I'm talking about,
18:10.1
who has been talking
18:13.2
in last year's election.
18:14.3
So, ang dami dyan
18:17.8
Duterte's purpose,
18:20.9
So, even if gusto nila
18:23.4
on Duterte's terms.
18:26.4
let's go back to this,
18:29.5
fascinating analysis
18:30.4
I heard during my visits
18:32.1
throughout the years
18:33.7
I have been to Davao
18:34.5
and I got fantastic
18:36.7
Marami tayong mga kaibigan dyan,
18:38.7
friendships natin dyan
18:40.9
And one of the things
18:43.7
kung hindi nanalo daw
18:46.9
in the sense that,
18:47.9
they also have rivals
18:53.6
which they're increasingly doing,
18:55.3
and then they go for gold
18:58.3
within Davao mismo,
18:59.4
they could be challenged
19:00.2
by other major players?
19:01.8
I think people are already
19:02.6
aware of the other
19:03.4
important factors.
19:06.9
yung balance of forces
19:09.1
Pero alam mo naman,
19:10.4
sa kapangyarihan,
19:11.3
anything can happen.
19:13.9
hawak pa rin nila
19:17.3
ng Partido Federal
19:19.9
is also from Mindanao.
19:23.9
yung may hawak niyan
19:27.1
dahil relative nila
19:30.5
ni Speaker Martin Romualdez.
19:35.2
sinasabing secession,
19:45.0
ay sasalita about secession,
19:49.5
ng gano'ng klaseng
19:53.5
Kahit first base,
19:58.3
yung possibility.
20:04.0
secession in favor
20:07.1
in favor of Duterte.
20:09.4
I don't underestimate
20:12.0
some sort of secession.
20:13.1
Last time I checked,
20:13.6
may flag pa nga daw sila.
20:16.8
They're ready na sila.
20:17.7
May flag na nga sila.
20:21.8
But let's go back
20:24.9
one of the things
20:25.5
that made me realize
20:29.2
knows what he's doing
20:31.4
ang dami mga congressmen
20:34.0
I think 200 of them,
20:36.4
ay biglang sumali
20:39.9
ni Martin Romaldes.
20:43.4
I doubt about it.
20:44.2
She's still there
20:44.8
in the pictures and all.
20:46.8
parang ang narealize ko dun,
20:48.3
hindi ba ta parang
20:48.9
rear invasions move yan
20:52.2
you're essentially
20:53.3
emptying the floor,
20:54.7
Kasi kung kukuni mo lahat,
20:58.6
Hindi nga chess to,
20:59.3
encirclement ng encirclement.
21:01.5
Kinukuha mo lahat sa Davao,
21:03.0
Nagde-defect na sila
21:04.7
That's where the,
21:05.5
all the resources
21:06.2
and the power of the state,
21:07.8
the mandate of the state
21:10.9
spare tire, di ba?
21:13.6
that's also an option
21:15.5
you wanna threaten me
21:16.8
from your stronghold?
21:18.4
make sure your stronghold
21:20.3
and it's holding together,
21:24.9
the powers that be.
21:27.3
yun yung elephant in the room,
21:31.2
and the midterms,
21:32.3
very powerfully incumbent.
21:34.5
At yung mga dynamics
21:35.8
na pinag-uusapan natin
21:37.9
in the next few months.
21:39.4
hindi nga isang taon, eh.
21:41.3
in the next few months.
21:42.8
kung ito ay mangyayari,
21:43.6
yung power of the state,
21:45.8
yung power of the incumbent
21:55.8
Halos naubos na yung PDP laban, eh.
21:59.4
Mismo yung sekretary general,
22:01.2
si Melvin Matibag,
22:04.5
naghahanap ng posisyon
22:14.3
yung mga holdouts na yan,
22:18.4
may tatlong congressman,
22:20.2
pinag-iisipan na nila
22:24.9
na dun na sa kabila
22:27.6
alam mo naman, no?
22:30.1
Hindi strong point
22:35.9
Hindi strong point
22:37.6
ng ating mga politiko, eh.
22:39.8
hindi natin sinasabi na
22:41.0
wala silang integrity.
22:42.1
Let's be very clear, Ronald.
22:43.6
We're just saying
22:44.2
it's not their strongest suit,
22:46.9
Sinasabi na wala silang integrity.
22:48.8
Sinasabi lang natin
22:49.7
hindi yan number one asset.
22:52.4
Baka meron silang
23:00.1
Sabi nga nung isang
23:03.0
sabi na hindi naman
23:03.6
kailangan na honesty
23:04.5
sa politics, di ba?
23:06.9
talagang ibang klase
23:08.0
talaga yung dynasty na yan.
23:10.1
I think this is...
23:10.7
Pero isang mahalaga rito
23:13.0
Ronald, may isang
23:13.7
pang-episode tayo
23:14.7
kasi pag-usapin...
23:16.3
tahimik si Sarah.
23:17.4
Tahimik yung vice president.
23:19.1
Let's talk about that.
23:20.4
In the next episode na lang, Ronald.
23:23.3
takbo ng utak mo eh.
23:24.7
I need to talk it.
23:26.7
for the next episode.
23:28.2
Maraming salamat,
23:29.0
Sir Ronald Diamas.
23:30.7
Hindi naman natin
23:31.3
sinasabi na walang gulo,
23:34.1
Pero hindi natin sinasabi.
23:35.9
Katulad ng hindi natin
23:36.9
sinasabi na walang integrity.
23:38.6
At hindi ko sinasabi
23:39.8
na ginagaya ka ng hero.
23:41.2
Kaya hindi ko sinasabi
23:42.1
na na-flatter ka.
23:43.2
Hindi, parang gano'n lang
23:44.5
Parang gano'n lang
23:45.1
dating sa kakin eh.
23:50.5
Thank you very much.
23:52.0
Pwede nyo isin natin
23:53.0
itong mga buhaya natin
23:54.2
dito ng mga buhaya.
23:56.0
Thank you very much.
23:56.7
Pag wala akong padala
23:57.4
ng ganyang buhaya.
23:59.0
Meron kang ibang green
24:00.5
ang pinadala ko sa'yo.
24:01.5
Ibang green yung pinadala ko
24:04.5
Alright, alright.
24:05.4
Talk to you soon.
24:06.3
Maraming salamat.
