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Ronald D. Hamas, diba, na parang, I think his understanding is, dapat hintayin natin, parang tanggapin mo na lang sa 2025, medyo malabo, medyo mahirap, 2028 na lang planuhin mo.

Well, when you think about it, actually, I have a big issue with that kind of analysis in a sense that, there may not be a 2028 elections in the way we anticipate it, no?

Kasi, sobrang taas yung posibilidad, no? Na if mga pro-Marcos camp ay sobrang ganda nung kanilang performance sa 2025 election, let's say, sige, fine, 2, 3, 4 senators affiliated with the Duterte camp will make it in, more or less, ito yung mga malakas din sa mga dating elections,

but the pro-Marcos camp or independents na may leaning kay Marcos or independents na hindi naman talaga opposition, they will dominate not only in the Senate, but especially dun sa lower house of Congress.

Because, in that situation, kasi, ano eh, if you were to bet right now, itong sasabihin mo, tatlo or apat ang prodigong side ang mananalo sa Senate, pero sa Kongreso, it's gonna be totally a lopsided race.

At dun sa ibang-ibang LGU races, you can imagine na sobrang lakas na maging performance ng administration people, at least based on historical trend lines, no?

And I think that explains why yung mga pro-Duterte camp ay medyo nagpa-panic mode na.

Now, isang dahilan na...

Nanonood po tayo ng mga videos nila, Buljakan, yung mga, ewan ko, alam mo yung mga, the usual suspects, no?

It's because I'm trying to assess also what is their level of desperation and panic, no?

At nakikita ko, I mean, some of them, dun sa mga kanilang vlogs, they're essentially inciting, you know, rebellion.

Medyo delikado yung mga sinasabi nila.

Yung isa naman, yung ex-human rights lawyer na isa, sabi naman niya, hindi naman siya nagpupush for gulo, pero pwede magkaroon ng gulo.

And Duterte at the highest level, especially at the ICC level.

But, you know, I mean, the thing is, still, may tatlo or apat sa kampo nila na mukhang malaking chance na maging senador ulit.

And I think yung strategy din ng Duterte camp right now is to mobilize the base by creating a sense of emergency, which is not totally unfounded.

So, basically, ang idea dito is, kailangan natin lumaban, kailangan na mag-mobilize tayo, kailangan natin gamitin lahat ng mga kailangan natin gamitin para, no?

Competitive tayo sa 2020 FEAT, at saka magkaroon tayo ng isang political shield, no?

Kung saan magdadalawang isip yung kabilang kampo na to go after yung mga iniidol na natin yan.

So, there's, I think there's that kind of mobilization, desperation, scrambling na nangyari.

And at the very least, they have three or four people from their camp who can make it to the Senate in next year's election.

So, they're not totally irrelevant forces, no?

The Marcos camp naman, it's just a matter of how dominant they're gonna be in next year's elections,

and how much they can essentially checkmate the other side.

Which leaves you with this very difficult question.

Ano naman mangyari dun sa totoong opposition in the meantime, right?

Kung Lenny's not gonna run, and then sila Bam and Kiko and all, just outside knocking at the door dun sa Magic 12.

And going back to what I'm saying, yes, in theory, it makes sense for them to build yung foundations for 2028 as early as now.

But it's very possible na after 2025, babaguin na yung buong sa Ligang Batas ng Pilipinas.

It is very possible na after 2025, magkakaroon ng isang kompromiso kung saan yung mga supporters ni Marcos sa Senado,

yung mga supporters ni Marcos sa Kongreso, most likely still under someone named Martin Romualdez, diba?

Eto yung mag-usap-usap sila.

They'll come up with a compromise whereby they'll change the Constitution siguro until 2028 pa rin magsaserve yung mga ibang Senadors, yung Presidenta mo.

And after 2028, maybe BBM will be something.

Sort of a symbolic President, kind of a Chancellor type, Alemania.

And then those in the Senate, maybe they'll be part of a, I don't know, House of Lords or something like that.

But there will be a parliamentary system essentially established.

And we know, the thing with the parliamentary system is, hindi necessarily nanalo yung pinakakarismatik ng tao bilang Prime Minister.

Sa isang parliamentary system, ang pinakamalakas ay yung kampo or yung isang leader na kaya niya mag-mobilize ng ibang mga politiko to support him or support her.

Diba?

So you could be a very problematic, very controversial figure.

Pero in the parliamentary system, if marami kang mga aliado ng parliamentarians, mga ibang essentially trapos or ibang politikos,

if you get enough numbers, then you can form the next government.

As simple as that.

And to become a Prime Minister, all you have to do is just to win a seat in the Parliament and then be part of the biggest coalition.

And then doon magkakala ng horse trading, negotiations, so on and so forth.

And the next thing you know, you have the biggest numbers and you can become the Prime Minister.

Right?

Look at the countries like Japan or Malaysia as examples.

Marami silang naging Prime Ministers na hindi necessarily popular na tao.

I mean, look at Fumio Kishida, for instance, yung Prime Minister in Japan.

I think his approval ratings are like 26%, 21% even.

But he can still become the Prime Minister because he belongs to the biggest party.

And that party has been able to build the biggest coalition doon sa Japanese diet.

Also in Malaysia, we have had many Prime Ministers, including the current Prime Minister, si Anwar Ibrahim, who's not behind him.

But he still can become the Prime Minister.

Because he was able to build the biggest coalition.

Right?

So, in a parliamentary system, ang laki nung chance na totally ma-box out ng mga Dutertes.

Na hindi magkakaroon ng chance ni Sara Duterte or yung mga Duterte people to essentially plot their way back to power.

Kasi parati ko nakikita sa mga comment section,

Oh, yung manda kayo, 2028, iyakan na naman kayo dyan, yung mga ganyan-ganyan.

But my point is, wait lang.

You are assuming na yung isang kampo dyan ay hintay lang nila na bumalik yung kabila.

Hindi mangyayari yan.

It's very possible.

But it doesn't push for total constitutional change.

Now, that is why, mahalaga na yung totoong opposition,

kaya ako parating sinasabi ko, there should be a distinction between functional opposition and ideological opposition.

Functional opposition is yung kumukontrol lang sa gobyerno na malakas.

Or at least relatively mas malakas dun sa ibang kumukontrol.

So that makes it the Duterte camp, essentially.

Ideological opposition are people who actually really want transformative progressive change sa isang political system.

Now, the functional opposition, which is the Duterte camp, they have some chance.

Meron pa rin silang may asim pa yung kanilang kampo.

But yung real opposition, yun yung challenge sa kanila ngayon.

Because if they do not win any position at the national level,

and sa LGU level, okay, let's say Lenny maybe wins here and there,

and then some good guys like Vico Soto are also there.

I don't know that that will be enough.

For them to have enough say dun sa potential constitutional change situation na mangyayari after 2025 elections.

So yes, agree ako na dapat realistic yung opposition na yung prospects nila ay napakahirap.

Andami mga obstacles for them to win top positions, especially in Senate in 2025.

But they have to try.

Because if they don't try at all, baka ma-totally box out sila.

Hindi lang sa 2025, but for good.

Di ba?

And this is gonna be a very tricky situation because you want the good guys to be there

when there will be serious discussions about constitutional change.

Para siguraduin na yung constitutional change discussions after 2025,

hindi mapunta kung saan-saan.

At hindi magkakaroon ng mga mumbo-jumbo engineering,

legal constitutional engineering,

which will undermine essentially foundations of any aspiration to having a real democracy in the Philippines.

Kaya ang argument ko dito is, you know, two or three,

strongest people from the opposition have to really get every support that they can

para lang at least isa o dalawa sa kanila may chance na makapasok sa Senate.

And then combine with Riza Ontiveros, combine with, will Coco Pimental still be there?

And then combine with some more independent-minded folks na not necessarily with the Marcos camp

who may have their own logic and own strategy.

They may have just enough in the Senate.

Di ba?

Yun po yung tinitignan natin situation right now.

So that's why,

mention ganyan is,

there has to be an effort to at least win one or two seats in the Senate.

Or at least they have to try.

Or at least there should be some show of force

para hindi siya ma-completely marginalized

at ma-box out dun sa ating political landscape in the coming year or so.

Because in the next two years or three years,

you may have transformative changes in the country.

Alright, mukhang na-disconnect na naman yung isang internet natin.

Ito talaga na akin is kaya mahirap bumibuelo.

Gusto mong paganda yung analysis.

Kasi malabang yung internet mo and all.

Anyway guys, thank you so much dun sa mga nakikinig sa atin.

I hope we can have better conditions for internet discussion soon.

And please continue to support us and listen to us.

And don't worry, we'll update you as more information comes in.

And don't worry, magkakaroon din tayo ng more reactions

dun sa mga analysis ng mga minamahal yung mga vloggers dun sa kabilang kampo.

And that's all. Thank you very much.

God bless and ciao.