00:48.8
dun sa interview natin
00:49.9
or some of you were actually able to watch it kaapon
00:51.7
with our good friends
00:53.1
si Ladindo at si Edwin Lacherda
00:55.7
dun sa CNN Philippines.
00:58.9
how the situation is looking very
01:03.1
for the opposition
01:05.0
pagdating sa 2025.
01:06.5
Kung tinignan mo lahat ng surveys na lumabas
01:08.6
at least yung mga public ones
01:09.9
whether ito yung mga public as Asia types
01:13.4
whether ito yung mga OCTA types
01:15.3
na medyo recent lang lumabas
01:16.9
or yung mga established survey agencies
01:18.6
like Pulse Asia for instance or SWS
01:20.8
some of them are published, some of them are not.
01:22.7
If you look at all of them
01:23.9
if there's one thing consistent
01:27.0
someone named Tulfo
01:28.9
is still in the run to top the Senate race.
01:32.1
So in this case, it's Erwin Tulfo.
01:34.1
So that tells you something.
01:35.2
When all the surveys suggest that
01:36.6
another Tulfo could be
01:37.7
in a position to dominate the Senate race
01:40.1
it just tells you na benta pa rin sa ating mga kababayan
01:43.1
etong ganitong klase ng mga pangumuno
01:45.8
yung medyo malaksyon
01:48.2
yung medyo tough man, strong man, macho kind of politics
01:52.2
now obviously, you know
01:53.5
each of the brothers have their own kind of
01:57.4
sui generis kind of approach to politics.
01:58.7
yung medyo tough man, strong man, macho kind of politics.
01:58.9
but the Tulfo brand
02:00.4
is very, very powerful nowadays.
02:03.2
another Tulfo is in the top three of the Senate
02:06.3
then that tells you something about
02:07.8
the direction of, you know
02:09.8
politics in the Philippines.
02:11.4
So kaya nga hindi benta sa akin yung mga
02:13.6
ay disinformation lang yan, ganyan, ganyan.
02:15.5
No, I mean there's also definitely
02:16.9
genuine yearning for kind of a strong man leader
02:19.7
to provide some sort of shortcut solution to people
02:23.0
there is this impression na
02:25.4
kung may mga tao nakatulad din ng mga Tulfo
02:28.1
they will be able to do that.
02:28.2
So I think that's a good thing.
02:28.2
I think that's a good thing.
02:28.3
I think that's a good thing.
02:28.5
I think that's a good thing.
02:28.6
They will be very rapidly responsive
02:30.4
dun sa mga gusto ng tao.
02:38.3
also helping the rise of people like
02:40.3
Isko Moreno, who by the way is also
02:42.0
in a very good position.
02:43.8
Basta sa lahat ng mga major surveys na nakita natin
02:46.0
mukhang Isko Moreno is also kind of
02:49.7
for the Senate should he decide to run
02:52.5
next year. So it's just a question
02:54.6
of whether he'll be in the top six
02:56.1
or not as things stand.
03:00.4
said all of those things,
03:01.9
pag tinignan mo yung
03:05.9
napaka, I mean, the top five
03:08.4
more or less, mukhang isa dalawa dyan
03:10.2
are going to be people close to Duterte.
03:12.8
So Bongo and Bato de la Rosa
03:14.6
seem to be doing pretty decently
03:16.4
sa mga surveys. So that means
03:18.2
that the Duterte camp will have at least
03:20.3
two individuals that
03:22.3
they can field as
03:24.2
parang representative
03:26.2
ng kanilang kampo.
03:28.6
And Tulfos, of course, are
03:30.6
building their own profile.
03:34.7
also going to be in a strong position if she runs for it.
03:37.1
So you can think about at least three, if not
03:40.6
pro-Duterte people doing quite
03:42.8
decent, if not very well
03:44.7
dito sa upcoming elections na yan.
03:47.3
And then the rest are either
03:48.8
mga re-electionists
03:50.2
or ito yung mga tao na malapit naman
03:52.6
sa Marcos Jr. camp.
03:54.7
Interestingly, mga tao na hindi
03:56.7
ka nakakompetitive before, katulad na yung
03:58.5
Duterte ni, for instance, Gibo Chodoro.
04:00.5
Now, they're kind of within the striking
04:02.4
distance of Magic 12.
04:05.3
They're knocking at the door.
04:07.0
So I think if you're
04:07.9
Gibo Chodoro, I won't be surprised if he's also
04:10.5
considering his prospects in 2025
04:12.6
while he's undertaking
04:14.5
itong trabaho niya na napang mahalaga.
04:16.2
Of course, National Defense Secretary.
04:17.8
But having said all of that,
04:20.5
to be honest, if you look at all of the surveys,
04:25.0
underperforming pa rin
04:28.5
affiliated sa opposition.
04:30.2
I don't know if President Duterte
04:31.6
himself will run, but should President Duterte
04:33.5
run, I won't be surprised. He'll easily be top
04:35.4
five. Because if Bongo and Bato
04:37.4
are top five, since
04:39.4
they're more or less just derivatives of Duterte,
04:41.8
you can imagine Duterte himself would be in
04:43.5
top two, top three. Now, that would
04:45.5
have made you assume
04:47.4
na kung yung pinakamalakas
04:49.8
galing sa opposition ang tumakbo,
04:51.6
they would be also shoo-in for
04:53.3
the top five position. But
04:55.1
kung tinig na mo yung survey, actually si Lenny Robredo,
04:58.2
hindi siya malakas.
04:58.5
hindi siya malakas.
04:58.5
hindi siya even sure for top 12.
05:02.4
if Lenny were to try to really mobilize
05:04.6
and try to really run for office
05:06.4
at the Senate level,
05:08.1
I won't be surprised she'll be top 10 at least.
05:11.0
If not, a bit higher.
05:14.0
the reality is that
05:16.1
we don't know what's her plans, and I won't be surprised
05:18.2
if her plans are actually to stay there
05:20.5
in Bicol region and
05:22.3
serve at that LGU level position.
05:25.1
And I think it actually
05:26.4
makes sense in many ways. Perhaps,
05:28.0
going back to an executive position
05:29.7
at the LGU level, that's really the way forward
05:32.1
for the opposition and all.
05:34.3
So, let's just put aside Lenny, who
05:35.8
in theory is the strongest candidate that the opposition
05:38.2
could have for the Senate race,
05:40.4
considering that she got more than 15
05:42.0
million votes at this, officially speaking,
05:43.8
sa last year's elections. And this 15
05:50.6
Isa lang pwede mo butoyin sa presidency.
05:56.2
15 million for a senator.
05:58.0
So, kumpara sa 15 million for a president.
05:59.8
Because, I mean, 15 million sa isang senator,
06:02.0
you're just one of many people
06:04.0
na binabota ng tao. So, if 15 million
06:06.2
for a presidential candidate is quite a high number,
06:08.4
so you would have expected na
06:09.6
medyo shoe-in lang
06:11.6
of top 3 even, or if not top 5,
06:14.1
if running for. Because, yung 15 million
06:16.2
plus ni Lenny, hindi ganon ka-license yung 16 million
06:18.1
na panalo ni Digong. So, kung si Digong
06:19.9
is top 3 or number 1 basis service,
06:21.9
you would imagine Lenny should be there.
06:23.6
Now, ibang usapan na, if you guys want to think
06:25.8
na lahat ng service ay fake.
06:28.0
Ibang usapan na yan. You can go to
06:32.0
Mag-ibang usapan na kayo dyan. But,
06:34.7
for me, because I don't rely on one
06:36.1
service. I look at all different, 4 or 5 different
06:37.9
services, you triangulate it, and then you look at trendlines.
06:40.4
So, one trendline is very clear.
06:42.4
Toolfuls and other toolfuls could be in a position
06:44.2
to top the race. Second trendline
06:46.3
that I'm seeing here is that
06:48.1
yung mga senators na affiliated
06:49.6
kay Digong, mukhang malaking chance na makapasok.
06:52.4
At least, Bato, Bongo, and
06:53.8
Aimee Marcos. And, at least,
06:56.0
dito sa public, sa
06:58.0
Bogta naman, even Francis
06:59.4
Tolentino medyo may pag-asa.
07:01.5
I don't know doon sa ibang service. Medyo alanganin
07:03.4
si Francis Tolentino doon. Nakikita din
07:05.5
natin yung mga ibang figures na
07:07.1
mala-action din, yung mga rapid response
07:09.7
type of people. Like, Isco Moreno, also consistently
07:11.7
in the top 6, top 7
07:13.3
doon sa mga iba't ibang service. So, that tells
07:15.6
you something about the bigger picture in the Philippines.
07:17.9
So, bago tayo pag-usapan mga SD
07:19.4
cards and disinformation and all of that,
07:22.0
you have to understand the political landscape.
07:24.0
At anong mga hinihingi ng mga
07:25.5
voters. Kasi ang problema sa mga ibang
07:27.7
analysis na nakikita ko is very
07:29.1
supply side. Meaning, oh, eto,
07:31.6
may disinformation, nauto daw yung tao,
07:33.6
itas ganitong bumoto. Yung ganyan na
07:35.0
analysis, not only is it factually
07:37.6
problematic, but it's actually very
07:39.5
limiting also. You also have to understand
07:41.4
anong hinahanap ng voters at bakit
07:43.4
yan ang hinahanap nila. So, you have to have a demand
07:45.6
side understanding of
07:49.4
political preferences. At yun ang
07:51.5
medyo kulang talaga doon sa nakikita ko ng
07:53.4
analysis galing sa mga ibang tao.
07:55.3
Especially yung mga galing sa opposition na supposedly
07:57.6
more reasonable, more educated,
07:59.8
more evidence-based. But
08:01.6
I see more prejudice
08:05.4
rather than proper political analysis.
08:07.6
I don't know where this is coming from. Is it
08:09.3
lack of political analytics skills or
08:11.5
is it because of arrogance, hubris, or both?
08:13.8
I don't know. But anyway,
08:17.6
pattern na nakikita ko halos sa lahat ng surveys
08:19.4
ay may hiyapan talaga ng opposition.
08:21.4
And most likely, they will not run for the Senate.
08:23.7
So that means, you're really looking
08:25.6
at people like Kiko,
08:27.6
people like BAM, right?
08:30.1
Siguro, medyo Franklin Delon,
08:31.5
among others, not to mention
08:33.2
Chell Jokno. Siguro, mga apat or limang
08:35.3
naisip ko na who may be within the striking
08:37.4
distance of top 12, especially once
08:39.6
they declare yung kanilang plano
08:41.3
to run for the Senate. Now,
08:43.4
obviously, it's not going to be easy. And I remember
08:45.5
some of the discussions na meron tayo with
08:51.5
I think his understanding
08:53.6
is dapat hintayin natin
08:55.4
parang tanggapin mo na lang sa 2025,
08:57.6
medyo malabo, medyo mahirap.
08:59.8
2028 na lang planuhin mo.
09:02.9
Well, when you think
09:03.6
about it, actually, I have a big issue
09:05.4
with that kind of analysis in a sense that
09:07.6
there may not be a 2028
09:11.7
elections in the way we anticipate
09:13.5
it, no? Kasi sobrang
09:15.7
taas yung posibilidad, no?
09:17.7
Na if mga pro-Marcos
09:19.6
camp ay sobrang ganda nung kanilang performance
09:21.9
sa 2025 election. Let's say
09:23.6
sige, fine. 2, 3, 4
09:25.5
senators affiliated,
09:27.6
with the Duterte camp will make it in, more or less
09:29.8
ito yung mga malakas din sa mga dating elections.
09:32.6
But the pro-Marcos
09:33.9
camp or independents na may leaning
09:35.8
kay Marcos or independents na hindi naman talaga
09:37.7
opposition, they will dominate
09:40.0
not only in the Senate, but especially dun sa lower house
09:41.9
of Congress. In that
09:45.0
if you were to bet right now, itong
09:47.7
sasabihin mo, tatlo or apat ang
09:49.3
prodigal side ang manalas sa Senate.
09:51.6
Pero sa Kongreso, it's going to be
09:53.4
totally a lopsided race.
09:55.7
At dun sa ibang-ibang LGU races,
09:57.6
you can imagine na sobrang lakas
09:59.7
ang maging performance ng
10:01.1
administration people. At least, based on
10:03.5
historical trend lines.
10:05.3
At I think that explains why
10:07.3
yung mga pro-Duterte camp ay medyo
10:09.2
nagpa-panic mode na. Now, isang dahilan
10:11.4
na nanonood po tayo
10:13.5
ng mga videos nila, Buljakan,
10:15.9
yung mga, alam ko,
10:17.5
yung mga, the usual suspects.
10:19.8
It's because I'm trying to assess also
10:21.6
what is their level of desperation and
10:23.5
panic. At nakikita ko,
10:25.6
I mean, some of them, dun sa mga
10:27.6
kanilang mga, sa mga kanilang
10:29.6
vlogs, they're essentially inciting
10:31.6
rebellion. Medyo delikado
10:33.9
yung mga sinasabi nila.
10:35.6
Yung isa naman, yung ex-human rights lawyer na isa,
10:37.6
sabi naman niya, hindi naman siya nagpo-push for
10:39.6
gulo, pero pwede magkaroon ng gulo if there'll
10:41.7
be moves against Duterte at the highest
10:43.8
level, especially at the ICC level.
10:46.5
But, you know, I mean,
10:48.6
the thing is, still,
10:49.8
may tatlo or apat sa kampo nila na
10:51.6
mukhang malaking chance na maging senador ulit.
10:53.7
And, I think yung strategy din
10:55.7
ng Duterte camp right now is to mobilize
10:57.6
the base by creating a sense of
10:59.8
emergency, which is not totally
11:01.9
unfounded. So, basically, ang idea
11:03.9
dito is, kailangan natin lumaban,
11:05.9
kailangan na mag-mobilize tayo,
11:07.8
kailangan natin gamitin lahat ng mga kailangan
11:09.8
natin gamitin para, no,
11:11.8
para maging competitive tayo sa 2020
11:13.4
at saka magkaroon tayo ng isang political shield,
11:18.1
kung saan magdadalawang isip yung kabilang
11:19.8
kampo na to go after
11:21.5
yung mga iniidola natin yan. So, there's,
11:23.9
I think there's that kind of
11:25.4
mobilization, desperation,
11:27.6
scrambling na nangyari,
11:29.6
and at the very least, they have three or four
11:31.8
people from their camp who can make it to the Senate
11:33.7
in next year's election. So, they're not totally
11:35.6
irrelevant forces, no?
11:37.5
The Marcos camp naman, it's just a matter of how
11:39.8
dominant they're gonna be in next year's elections
11:41.6
and how much they can essentially checkmate
11:43.9
the other side, which leaves you
11:45.7
with this very difficult question. Ano naman
11:47.7
nangyari dun sa totoong opposition in the meantime?
11:50.3
Right? Kung Lenin,
