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Thank you for watching!

Yan, kamusta kayo dyan mga kumeta?

I hope nakakonect tayo.

Medyo helpless case talagang may internet natin dito.

I don't know what's going on.

But let's get back to the discussions

na we were hoping to have actually earlier.

Ito, ito, ito.

Obviously, as some of you were able to eavesdrop

dun sa interview natin

or some of you were actually able to watch it kaapon

with our good friends

si Ladindo at si Edwin Lacherda

dun sa CNN Philippines.

We talked about

how the situation is looking very

very tough

for the opposition

pagdating sa 2025.

Kung tinignan mo lahat ng surveys na lumabas

at least yung mga public ones

whether ito yung mga public as Asia types

whether ito yung mga OCTA types

na medyo recent lang lumabas

or yung mga established survey agencies

like Pulse Asia for instance or SWS

some of them are published, some of them are not.

If you look at all of them

if there's one thing consistent

dyan is

someone named Tulfo

is still in the run to top the Senate race.

So in this case, it's Erwin Tulfo.

So that tells you something.

When all the surveys suggest that

another Tulfo could be

in a position to dominate the Senate race

it just tells you na benta pa rin sa ating mga kababayan

etong ganitong klase ng mga pangumuno

yung medyo malaksyon

yung medyo tough man, strong man, macho kind of politics

now obviously, you know

each of the brothers have their own kind of

sui generis kind of approach to politics.

yung medyo tough man, strong man, macho kind of politics.

but the Tulfo brand

is very, very powerful nowadays.

So imagine if

another Tulfo is in the top three of the Senate

then that tells you something about

the direction of, you know

politics in the Philippines.

So kaya nga hindi benta sa akin yung mga

ay disinformation lang yan, ganyan, ganyan.

No, I mean there's also definitely

genuine yearning for kind of a strong man leader

to provide some sort of shortcut solution to people

or at least

there is this impression na

kung may mga tao nakatulad din ng mga Tulfo

nandyan sa power

they will be able to do that.

So I think that's a good thing.

I think that's a good thing.

I think that's a good thing.

I think that's a good thing.

They will be very rapidly responsive

dun sa mga gusto ng tao.

We saw also that

that kind of

political desire

also helping the rise of people like

Isko Moreno, who by the way is also

in a very good position.

Basta sa lahat ng mga major surveys na nakita natin

mukhang Isko Moreno is also kind of

almost shoo-in

for the Senate should he decide to run

next year. So it's just a question

of whether he'll be in the top six

or not as things stand.

Now, having

said all of those things,

pag tinignan mo yung

yung race mismo,

napaka, I mean, the top five

more or less, mukhang isa dalawa dyan

are going to be people close to Duterte.

So Bongo and Bato de la Rosa

seem to be doing pretty decently

sa mga surveys. So that means

that the Duterte camp will have at least

two individuals that

they can field as

parang representative

ng kanilang kampo.

And Tulfos, of course, are

building their own profile.

Aimee Marcos is

also going to be in a strong position if she runs for it.

So you can think about at least three, if not

four, strong

pro-Duterte people doing quite

decent, if not very well

dito sa upcoming elections na yan.

And then the rest are either

mga re-electionists

or ito yung mga tao na malapit naman

sa Marcos Jr. camp.

Interestingly, mga tao na hindi

ka nakakompetitive before, katulad na yung

Duterte ni, for instance, Gibo Chodoro.

Now, they're kind of within the striking

distance of Magic 12.

They're knocking at the door.

So I think if you're

Gibo Chodoro, I won't be surprised if he's also

considering his prospects in 2025

while he's undertaking

itong trabaho niya na napang mahalaga.

Of course, National Defense Secretary.

But having said all of that,

to be honest, if you look at all of the surveys,

medyo

underperforming pa rin

yung mga tao na

affiliated sa opposition.

I don't know if President Duterte

himself will run, but should President Duterte

run, I won't be surprised. He'll easily be top

five. Because if Bongo and Bato

are top five, since

they're more or less just derivatives of Duterte,

you can imagine Duterte himself would be in

top two, top three. Now, that would

have made you assume

na kung yung pinakamalakas

galing sa opposition ang tumakbo,

they would be also shoo-in for

the top five position. But

kung tinig na mo yung survey, actually si Lenny Robredo,

hindi siya malakas.

hindi siya malakas.

hindi siya even sure for top 12.

Now, my sense is

if Lenny were to try to really mobilize

and try to really run for office

at the Senate level,

I won't be surprised she'll be top 10 at least.

If not, a bit higher.

But

the reality is that

we don't know what's her plans, and I won't be surprised

if her plans are actually to stay there

in Bicol region and

serve at that LGU level position.

And I think it actually

makes sense in many ways. Perhaps,

going back to an executive position

at the LGU level, that's really the way forward

for the opposition and all.

So, let's just put aside Lenny, who

in theory is the strongest candidate that the opposition

could have for the Senate race,

considering that she got more than 15

million votes at this, officially speaking,

sa last year's elections. And this 15

million is for

the presidency.

Isa lang pwede mo butoyin sa presidency.

So, hindi

parehas yung

15 million for a senator.

So, kumpara sa 15 million for a president.

Because, I mean, 15 million sa isang senator,

you're just one of many people

na binabota ng tao. So, if 15 million

for a presidential candidate is quite a high number,

so you would have expected na

medyo shoe-in lang

of top 3 even, or if not top 5,

if running for. Because, yung 15 million

plus ni Lenny, hindi ganon ka-license yung 16 million

na panalo ni Digong. So, kung si Digong

is top 3 or number 1 basis service,

you would imagine Lenny should be there.

Now, ibang usapan na, if you guys want to think

na lahat ng service ay fake.

Ibang usapan na yan. You can go to

other vloggers.

Mag-ibang usapan na kayo dyan. But,

for me, because I don't rely on one

service. I look at all different, 4 or 5 different

services, you triangulate it, and then you look at trendlines.

So, one trendline is very clear.

Toolfuls and other toolfuls could be in a position

to top the race. Second trendline

that I'm seeing here is that

yung mga senators na affiliated

kay Digong, mukhang malaking chance na makapasok.

At least, Bato, Bongo, and

Aimee Marcos. And, at least,

dito sa public, sa

Bogta naman, even Francis

Tolentino medyo may pag-asa.

I don't know doon sa ibang service. Medyo alanganin

si Francis Tolentino doon. Nakikita din

natin yung mga ibang figures na

mala-action din, yung mga rapid response

type of people. Like, Isco Moreno, also consistently

in the top 6, top 7

doon sa mga iba't ibang service. So, that tells

you something about the bigger picture in the Philippines.

So, bago tayo pag-usapan mga SD

cards and disinformation and all of that,

you have to understand the political landscape.

At anong mga hinihingi ng mga

voters. Kasi ang problema sa mga ibang

analysis na nakikita ko is very

supply side. Meaning, oh, eto,

may disinformation, nauto daw yung tao,

itas ganitong bumoto. Yung ganyan na

analysis, not only is it factually

problematic, but it's actually very

limiting also. You also have to understand

anong hinahanap ng voters at bakit

yan ang hinahanap nila. So, you have to have a demand

side understanding of

elections and

political preferences. At yun ang

medyo kulang talaga doon sa nakikita ko ng

analysis galing sa mga ibang tao.

Especially yung mga galing sa opposition na supposedly

more reasonable, more educated,

more evidence-based. But

I see more prejudice

and bitterness

rather than proper political analysis.

I don't know where this is coming from. Is it

lack of political analytics skills or

is it because of arrogance, hubris, or both?

I don't know. But anyway,

yung third

pattern na nakikita ko halos sa lahat ng surveys

ay may hiyapan talaga ng opposition.

And most likely, they will not run for the Senate.

So that means, you're really looking

at people like Kiko,

people like BAM, right?

Siguro, medyo Franklin Delon,

among others, not to mention

Chell Jokno. Siguro, mga apat or limang

naisip ko na who may be within the striking

distance of top 12, especially once

they declare yung kanilang plano

to run for the Senate. Now,

obviously, it's not going to be easy. And I remember

some of the discussions na meron tayo with

Ronald De Amas,

na parang

I think his understanding

is dapat hintayin natin

parang tanggapin mo na lang sa 2025,

medyo malabo, medyo mahirap.

2028 na lang planuhin mo.

Well, when you think

about it, actually, I have a big issue

with that kind of analysis in a sense that

there may not be a 2028

elections in the way we anticipate

it, no? Kasi sobrang

taas yung posibilidad, no?

Na if mga pro-Marcos

camp ay sobrang ganda nung kanilang performance

sa 2025 election. Let's say

sige, fine. 2, 3, 4

senators affiliated,

with the Duterte camp will make it in, more or less

ito yung mga malakas din sa mga dating elections.

But the pro-Marcos

camp or independents na may leaning

kay Marcos or independents na hindi naman talaga

opposition, they will dominate

not only in the Senate, but especially dun sa lower house

of Congress. In that

situation, kasi

if you were to bet right now, itong

sasabihin mo, tatlo or apat ang

prodigal side ang manalas sa Senate.

Pero sa Kongreso, it's going to be

totally a lopsided race.

At dun sa ibang-ibang LGU races,

you can imagine na sobrang lakas

ang maging performance ng

administration people. At least, based on

historical trend lines.

At I think that explains why

yung mga pro-Duterte camp ay medyo

nagpa-panic mode na. Now, isang dahilan

na nanonood po tayo

ng mga videos nila, Buljakan,

yung mga, alam ko,

yung mga, the usual suspects.

It's because I'm trying to assess also

what is their level of desperation and

panic. At nakikita ko,

I mean, some of them, dun sa mga

kanilang mga, sa mga kanilang

vlogs, they're essentially inciting

rebellion. Medyo delikado

yung mga sinasabi nila.

Yung isa naman, yung ex-human rights lawyer na isa,

sabi naman niya, hindi naman siya nagpo-push for

gulo, pero pwede magkaroon ng gulo if there'll

be moves against Duterte at the highest

level, especially at the ICC level.

But, you know, I mean,

the thing is, still,

may tatlo or apat sa kampo nila na

mukhang malaking chance na maging senador ulit.

And, I think yung strategy din

ng Duterte camp right now is to mobilize

the base by creating a sense of

emergency, which is not totally

unfounded. So, basically, ang idea

dito is, kailangan natin lumaban,

kailangan na mag-mobilize tayo,

kailangan natin gamitin lahat ng mga kailangan

natin gamitin para, no,

para maging competitive tayo sa 2020

at saka magkaroon tayo ng isang political shield,

no,

kung saan magdadalawang isip yung kabilang

kampo na to go after

yung mga iniidola natin yan. So, there's,

I think there's that kind of

mobilization, desperation,

scrambling na nangyari,

and at the very least, they have three or four

people from their camp who can make it to the Senate

in next year's election. So, they're not totally

irrelevant forces, no?

The Marcos camp naman, it's just a matter of how

dominant they're gonna be in next year's elections

and how much they can essentially checkmate

the other side, which leaves you

with this very difficult question. Ano naman

nangyari dun sa totoong opposition in the meantime?

Right? Kung Lenin,