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00:00.0
Masyadong umaabante. At ikatlo, yung writing on the wall, yung ICCD, is no longer just a writing.
00:09.5
Mukhang sabi nga ni former spokesperson niya, Harry Roque, mukhang pumasok na rito.
00:19.0
Pumasok na at seryoso yung approval ng presidente sa ICC.
00:25.2
Kaya yung Christmas at New Year, yung nag-dominate. Yung mga podcast ng idol mo, si Harry, meron siyang tatlong podcast na very controversial.
00:38.3
Practically, ang sinasabi nila, hindi na si Speaker Martin ang dahilan dito sa ICC. No less than the president.
00:44.7
At panghuli, hingat sila kung papadampot nila si Dicom sa ICC, baka magpagulo.
00:55.2
So yan yung mga nag-dominate sa podcast niya. Kaya hindi ko na-imagine si Dicom na being circumspect.
01:07.8
Pero yung tatlong elements na yan, na ubus na yung kanyang political base, mukhang hindi naman na-receive ng maayos.
01:16.8
At nag-fail naman siya na i-link up yung mga grumblings within the military, maliban dun sa isang crackpot na
01:24.9
Kap Dane Dado, na nag-announce ng withdrawal of support at transfer ng support kaya Sarah Guterte.
01:32.4
At ikatlo, yung nakaramdam na siya ng kanyang mortality, na hindi na lang ito mga maneuvers, hindi na lang ito writing on the wall.
01:42.3
Kung hindi isang real threat sa kanyang hindi lang political future, kung hindi sa kanyang physical survival.
01:54.9
Isa yun sa dahilan kung bakit nag-cension of killers.
01:58.2
Ang sabi kasi niya, I don't want to confront the president.
02:04.8
I want to send a message, di ba? Indirectly.
02:10.4
Yun ang word of the day, eh. Indirectly.
02:12.7
At tingin ko, lately, nitong mga nakarang araw, baga man sinabi ng presidente ni President Bombo Marcos,
02:24.9
nagpag-usap kay ex-president Duterte, mukhang hindi naman nag-scale down yung mga atake.
02:32.1
Nag-scale up pa nga eh.
02:33.7
Kung nabasa mo yung atake ni Pulong Duterte.
02:39.5
Kung nakita mo yung mga vloggers ng Prodirong, na tulad nila Maharlika, nagpatuloy naman yung atake.
02:49.1
At ikatlo, may mga lumabas na mga video ni Vice President Sarah.
02:54.9
Mga pictures ni Digong, na parang hindi naman gano'n ka-veiled o hindi naman gano'n ka-indirect yung banat doon sa pulvoron.
03:05.1
So yan yung ikalawang word of the day. Pulvoron.
03:10.0
Pulvoronic. Pulvoronic. Yun yung term ni Maharlika. Chinicheck ko yung video niya isang araw.
03:15.3
Wait, wait. Ronald, Ronald.
03:18.5
Boss Ronald Llamas.
03:20.2
Just for the purpose of some of our audience who may not be as avid watchers,
03:24.9
and fans of Buljak TV or ano, ano itong pulvoron na yan?
03:29.9
Kasi alam ko kung pulvoron na ito yung biskwit yata, di ba? Yung lumangsal pulvoron.
03:33.8
Pero alam ko, yung sinasabing pulvoron ni Maharlika ay medyo ibang pulvoron yan.
03:39.5
Ano bang, is this a old, is this like an OG kind of term for a certain deal?
03:46.7
Like, ano itong pulvoron na ito? Matagal pa yung ganitong expression.
03:49.3
Yan yung tawag ni Maharlika sa cocaine.
03:52.9
Na kanyang charge.
03:54.9
Na gumagamit ang presidente.
03:56.7
At hindi lang yun, meron daw video na kinuha yung isang close friend ng presidente or former close friend.
04:06.7
Na hindi Vic Rodriguez ang pangalan.
04:09.8
Na hindi Vic Rodriguez ang pangalan.
04:12.5
Hindi Vic Rodriguez ang pangalan.
04:14.0
Na gumagamit ng pulvoron.
04:16.5
Although, ang sabi ng ex-president Igong, ng kanyang press conference a few days ago,
04:23.0
ang sabi niya ay,
04:24.9
hindi siya na rin naiwala roon.
04:26.6
Tingin niya, walang basihan yun.
04:28.7
Pagkaman, yung mga taon niya, at saka siya na rin, at saka yung kanyang anak,
04:35.9
ay ginagamit na yung pulvoron motif.
04:39.5
Yan ang ginagamit nila.
04:41.1
Na parang hindi naman nakatago.
04:48.2
Parang derecho na.
04:49.6
Parang derecho na yung barat.
04:51.8
Wait, are you referring to the picture of Digong eating...
04:54.9
the biscuit pulvoron na marang asar lang yung mukha niya, yun ba yun?
04:59.2
Is that what you're referring to?
05:01.2
Tsaka yung video ni Sara na.
05:03.8
Oh, ay di ko alam yun na. May video rin.
05:05.8
May sinabi ka ba sa akin?
05:06.8
May sinabi ka about pulvoron, no?
05:10.0
So even Sara pala nakisali na.
05:12.5
So, very consistent yung pulvoron narrative.
05:15.6
Oh, pulvoron narrative.
05:16.9
Kay Vice President Sara, tsaka kay President Duterte.
05:21.4
So, hindi nag-scale down.
05:24.9
Nabasa nila na mukhang hindi naman kinukkol ng Presidente yung kanilang mga overtures,
05:31.0
yung kanilang mga feelers, yung kanilang indirectly na pinapaabot.
05:39.6
At tsaka yung sinasabi ni Digong na I am comfortable with the President.
05:45.0
Mukhang yung comfort na yun ay natabulan na ng pulvoron.
05:51.6
Yung mga pulvoron ads nila.
05:54.7
Yung masabi ni...
05:55.8
Well, not BBM himself, but his press secretary said something like, you know,
05:59.8
bukas ang bahay ko, any moment you can drop by and we can have a conversation.
06:04.0
Di ba may mga BBM nice, urbane, gentleman, may mga ganun.
06:09.0
Di ba yun ang signal enough na we don't need to escalate this?
06:12.1
I mean, what was the context of that?
06:13.6
Kasi si BBM, sorry, si Duterte medyo nagpapalambing in his Digong way.
06:18.8
And then si BBM naman ay gentleman, suabe.
06:21.3
Wala naman problema, sir.
06:22.6
Pwede ka pumunta sa akin anytime.
06:24.0
We can have a conversation.
06:25.5
Just like yung after pagbisit niya na sa Beijing, di ba?
06:28.5
Ang dami na inis sa ProMarcos na kilala ko.
06:30.6
Ito naman, tumatandang to.
06:32.9
Pinapayad si BBM.
06:34.4
Pero si BBM relax lang.
06:35.7
We welcomed niya sa Malacanang.
06:37.9
Nag-meeting sila.
06:39.7
Everything looked nice.
06:41.1
What's going on there?
06:43.3
Pwede yung mga public na yan.
06:45.5
Mga public display of affection.
06:47.6
Yung lagi mong ginagawa.
06:49.3
Di ba? Marami kang PDA.
06:51.3
Marami na kakakita sa'yo.
06:54.0
Hindi ko nalang sabihin kung sino yung mga...
06:57.3
Sige lang, sige lang.
06:58.3
Hindi ko nalang sabihin kung sino yung mga kasama mo na chichis miska, no?
07:02.0
Aba, aba, aba, aba, aba!
07:04.6
Wait lang, sino mga ito?
07:07.6
Yung mga PDA na yan ay sa intensity ng politika sa Pilipinas,
07:14.9
medyo baliwal na yan eh.
07:18.2
Sabi mo nga, ginagawa na naman yan in the past.
07:20.6
Pero wala namang nare-resolve.
07:24.0
Hindi naman nagkakaroon ng date plant.
07:26.0
Hindi naman nagkakaroon ng date plant eh.
07:27.5
Nag-escalate pa nga.
07:28.5
Nagiging yung open warfare na.
07:29.9
Tawag po, civil war.
07:32.8
So, tingin ko, too much water under the bridge.
07:36.0
So, kaya may ihirapan na.
07:39.6
Kahit may mga ganyang overtures.
07:41.6
At saka meron naman silang mga taos na vote council.
07:44.8
Meron naman mga tahimik na kumakausap.
07:48.1
Tingin ko, yung mga kumakausap, wala rin silang makulot na paglalambing from both sides.
07:54.0
Baka nakikita nila na talagang the lines are drawn.
07:59.0
And certain lines have been crossed.
07:60.0
And certain lines have been crossed.
08:03.0
Kaya wala, may ihirapan na.
08:06.0
Kahit may press court, kahit may overtures, kahit may indirectly gusto makausap.
08:14.0
Kahit merong comfortable statements.
08:17.0
Wala rin yung mga nangyayari.
08:19.0
Paano nila monitor ko na yung kanilang mga vloggers eh?
08:22.0
Tsaka yung mga struggle farmers.
08:26.0
Hindi naman obvious.
08:27.0
Hindi naman obvious.
08:28.0
Buka hindi naman naging scaled down.
08:30.0
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
08:31.0
Lalo muna sa context nitong political project, hindi lamang ni Speaker, kundi mukhang may blessing na ng malakanya, itong People's Initiative.
08:41.0
So lalong nadagdagan yung fuel sa apoy nitong People's Initiative na ito.
08:51.0
So, I cannot see na ito ay nakukuha.
08:53.0
Ito ay nag-a-scale down.
08:56.0
Kahit yung isang political analyst galing sa aking alma mater ay sinasabi sa ABS-CBN na ako pa naman.
09:06.0
Hindi pa naman na...
09:07.0
Parang kilala ko yan.
09:09.0
Hindi pa naman daw na didivide yung UNI-team at may symbiotic relationship yung presidente at vice president.
09:15.0
Aba-aba ba nagba-biological analysis na siya?
09:18.0
Sabi ko, sabi ko saan naman?
09:19.0
Saan naman sako ng basura sa kintamarket?
09:21.0
Pinaulot yung gano'ng klase mga analystista?
09:26.0
School of being nice to the bosses.
09:29.0
Ano ba ka nag-a-apply ng trabaho?
09:32.0
Ano mukhang kakatanggalan niya eh?
09:34.0
Medyo back in the market pala. Alam natin yan.
09:38.0
May kilala din ako sa alma mater ko ngayon na dati campaign manager and then biglang nagkaroon ng show sa isang channel.
09:45.0
Next thing you know, puro lang siyang praise sa dating presidente.
09:49.0
Sabi ko, parang nag-a-apply ng trabaho ito ha.
09:52.0
In fairness, nakakuha siya ng trabaho.
09:54.0
Para kilala mo yun.
09:56.0
Ito yung maraming sinasabi pero never nag-publish ng anything ha.
09:60.0
Academic pa ito pa, Ph.D. Ph.D. pa ito.
10:02.0
Pero walang na-publish ever.
10:04.0
Pag nag-Google Scholar namin, halos zero.
10:06.0
But anyway, mamaya na tayo magkahanap ng kaaway, Ronald.
10:10.0
Baka isipin mo ba na kailangan ko mag-produce ng fans.
10:13.0
Naku, ikaw Ronald. Ikaw ay isang orgat-
10:15.0
Ikaw ay Socrates, kumbaga. Diba?
10:17.0
You don't need to write it down.
10:18.0
You don't need to write it down.
10:19.0
There'll be always a Plato to write down what you-
10:21.0
Ikaw ay Socrates, diba?
10:23.0
Wala akong kahit anong diploma eh.
10:27.0
Ikaw ano ka, or OG.
10:29.0
OG ang diploma mo.
10:31.0
Pero Ronald, going back to this-
10:32.0
Wala akong heckler.
10:33.0
I'm just a heckler.
10:34.0
But this is what I like about Ronald.
10:35.0
Bati, hindi ka pretentious ano.
10:37.0
Ang dami mga pretentious na pa-professor, ek-ek, ganun.
10:40.0
Tapos wala naman na-publish.
10:41.0
Tapos inis na inis sila pag pinapoint out mo yung nonsense.
10:44.0
Tapos inis na inis sila pag hindi sila yung hinahanap ng international media.
10:48.0
Or, you know, yung mga matataas na journal kung saan nagpa-publish tayo ng konti.
10:53.0
Anyway, balikan natin.
10:55.0
Mamaya tayo magbardagulan sa next na yan sa Chacha episode.
10:59.0
Balikan natin ito, Ronald.
11:01.0
Huwag na natin pag-usapan yung mga ibang not worth discussing.
11:06.0
Kasi alam ko maraming nakikinig sa atin eh.
11:08.0
So, ingat lang tayo.
11:12.0
Ako kasi, ang pushback ko sa iyo ay ganito.
11:18.0
for all the sabognes ni tatay,
11:21.0
I think he's shrewd enough to realize when he's hitting a certain threshold.
11:25.0
You know, I noticed that in his six years,
11:27.0
pag alam niya hindi niya pwede pilitin yung pro-China position niya,
11:30.0
biglang magre-re-calibrate siya.
11:32.0
Pag alam niya medyo sumobra-sobra yung mga EJ case,
11:35.0
magre-re-calibrate siya.
11:36.0
We saw that after Keanu de los Santos.
11:38.0
We saw after yung incident during pandemic.
11:42.0
So, I agree with you that he's not as sharp as coherent as should be.
11:46.0
But I think he's still shrewd enough to realize,
11:48.0
he's hitting a wall eh.
11:51.0
Nakikita na talaga niya yung limits of power niya.
11:53.0
I think there's also this aspect, Ronald, of
11:56.0
sobrang na-understimate niya kasi si BBM eh.
11:58.0
Yung the whole weak leader,
11:60.0
eh dun yung sinasabi nung isang favorite mong vlogger na Kuting.
12:03.0
Kuting of the North.
12:06.0
part of di kong realize is,
12:07.0
maybe he's not Kuting after all.
12:09.0
Maybe he's more of a baby tiger
12:13.0
And not to mention,
12:14.0
of course alam natin with BBM,
12:15.0
he relies on pretty shrewd people
12:20.0
So I think Duterte is realizing,
12:21.0
their cards are not as strong as he thought.
12:24.0
And probably he's looking for some way of
12:26.0
bringing down a little bit of temperature
12:28.0
and then figuring out what's the next move.
12:30.0
I think he's also realizing that,
12:32.0
at the end of the day,
12:33.0
siya yung patriarch of the family eh.
12:35.0
Siya ang kailangan magligtas dito.
12:37.0
And Ronald, let's be honest,
12:38.0
if Digong knew what he needed to do,
12:41.0
Sara should have been the president today.
12:44.0
If he knew how to engineer that succession,
12:46.0
I don't think BBM would have even thought
12:47.0
to run for office.
12:48.0
I think Sara had a very good chance
12:49.0
of becoming the next president.
12:51.0
getting someone like Isko in office.
12:52.0
Or something like that.
12:54.0
So I think there's also a sense of guilt in him na,
12:56.0
ah sayang alam ko nga mangyari ito eh.
12:59.0
Pero nangyari na ngayon
12:60.0
at parang hindi natin kaya ito.
13:02.0
So I won't be surprised that over the long holidays,
13:06.0
that actually medyo quiet si Digong.
13:07.0
Wala siyang sinabi masyado.
13:08.0
Baka nagkara ng konting illumination.
13:11.0
Maybe not 10 out of 10,
13:12.0
but probably 4 out of 10 in all.
13:14.0
But the other thing is,
13:17.0
I'll ask you this.
13:18.0
I mean obviously,
13:20.0
your preferred situation is
13:22.0
tatayimig ng konti itong mga Duterte na yan
13:25.0
at eventually tanggapin na nila
13:27.0
they're at best gonna be secondary powers
13:29.0
in the hierarchy.
13:31.0
Probably not even secondary.
13:32.0
But at least in terms of big dynasties,
13:34.0
number two sila at best.
13:36.0
And hintay lang niya yung 2025
13:39.0
and then dudurugin niya lahat ng kalaban.
13:41.0
And by that time,
13:42.0
the Duterte camp has to accept
13:43.0
that they're just gonna be a minority,
13:46.0
quite a vocal opposition here.
13:47.0
And then yun na yung maging pecking order.
13:50.0
BBM would rather have this
13:51.0
a slow burn situation
13:52.0
whereby tatanggapin ng kabila
13:54.0
na this is the new pecking order.
13:56.0
Hindi na kayo boss
13:57.0
at medyo malayo na tayong dalawa.
13:59.0
It's not gonna be a partnership anymore.
13:60.0
It's gonna be an asymmetric alliance.
14:02.0
Parang nangyari sa Russia and China today.
14:05.0
For half a century,
14:06.0
Russia was the senior partner
14:08.0
in relationship with China
14:09.0
during Soviet Union
14:10.0
and earlier so post-Soviet Russia.
14:13.0
parang medyo tanggap na nila Putin and Russia na
14:15.0
sila yung secondary power
14:16.0
in that relationship.
14:18.0
we saw very OG gangster-y people
14:20.0
eventually accepting that shift
14:22.0
in the pecking order.
14:24.0
Literally pecking
14:25.0
being on top right now of China.
14:27.0
So, I don't know.
14:29.0
maybe we're underestimating
14:30.0
the rationality of Digong
14:32.0
or his ability to realize
14:33.0
he's hitting a wall.
14:34.0
At the same time siguro,
14:37.0
we are also underestimating
14:41.0
to keep pressing his advantage
14:44.0
while keeping things still
14:46.0
relatively on an even keel
14:48.0
or short of a threshold
14:51.0
or direct confrontation.
14:52.0
I mean, what do you think
14:53.0
about that perspective?
14:55.0
mas nag-lean ako on this side eh.
14:59.0
Tingin ko kung ganyan ang pagtingin ni Digong
15:01.0
ay mas sasakyan ko pa
15:03.0
yung una mo sinabi.
15:05.0
Dahil na-underestimate pa rin niya
15:07.0
and still now si BBM.
15:08.0
Parang tinitingnan niya na BBM
15:11.0
ay pagkakatiwalaan
15:12.0
yung kanyang overtures.
15:14.0
Tingin ko ay bahagi ng underestimation
15:19.0
nung sinasabi mo kanina.
15:22.0
Dahil if I were BBM,
15:25.0
bakit ako magtutrus
15:28.0
na alam ko naman na after the midterms
15:31.0
kung si Sara ang number one
15:33.0
sa survey for 2028,
15:37.0
Yari yung mga Marcos.
15:40.0
Dahil mag-shift na yung political loyalties.
15:43.0
magbabago na naman
15:44.0
yung political alignment
15:48.0
Kaya habang malakas sila
15:50.0
between now and the midterms,
15:52.0
gawin na nila yung dapat gawin.
15:55.0
pero Digong is fighting for time eh.
15:57.0
Delaying tactic yung ginagawa ni Digong eh.
16:01.0
Until after the midterms.
16:03.0
Kung mag-survive sila until the midterms,
16:05.0
ang tingin nila ng mga Duterte,
16:09.0
At sila ang leading sa 2028.
16:11.0
At least ganun lang kanilang calibration.
16:14.0
Pero yun, kung tatanggapin ni BBN
16:17.0
yung ganyang overtures
16:21.0
i-delay yung open warfare,
16:24.0
i-delay yung durugan,
16:26.0
then he will do so at his peril.
16:29.0
Dahil after the midterms,
16:31.0
magbabago ang complexion.
16:33.0
Lalo na na most probably
16:36.0
mas mataas si Sara kesa kay Speaker Martin.
16:40.0
Now, unless ikaw ay may nakikita
16:42.0
sa iyong bola-kristal na probability
16:46.0
na lalampasan ni Speaker Martin si Sara
16:49.0
after the midterms.
16:50.0
Ronald, may nakikita ako sa bola ko
16:52.0
may bagong survey agency na lalabas
16:55.0
At biglang ataas nung iba dyan.
16:58.0
kala niyo kayo lang may ganitong analytics.
17:01.0
Meron din kami niyan. Diba?
17:03.0
Natatungo na ako dito sa mga surveys eh.
17:07.0
alam mo na something is off here.
17:09.0
Wala kayo ng SWS.
17:11.0
What's happening, no?
17:12.0
Nagahanap mo eh pa sa mga to?
17:14.0
Uy, tama ka Ronald!
17:15.0
Doon sa Pulse Asia,
17:17.0
na hindi na-release,
17:18.0
mukhang may chance talaga yung opposition, no?
17:20.0
I mean, at least three of them.
17:21.0
Doon sa Magic 12.
17:22.0
Which we can talk in a separate episode.
17:24.0
But Ronald, I wanna keep it here because
17:26.0
this is where we have to discuss
17:28.0
two important curveballs,
17:31.0
if I can put it one way.
17:32.0
One is the ICC curveball.
17:34.0
I don't know kung pwede mo yung timing yan
17:36.0
because hindi kompletong pwede ng control niya.
17:39.0
Kasi also ICC can determine their time
17:42.0
when they can issue war on the virus.
17:43.0
And the second issue is CHA-CHA.
17:45.0
Which as early as right now,
17:47.0
medyo ginagalaw na yung bola.
17:49.0
But again, that will...
17:51.0
So I think there are two moving parts here.
17:53.0
Medyo moving parts.
17:54.0
Lalo yung ICC part.
17:55.0
So let's discuss that in the next episode.
17:56.0
Because I think we have more or less established here
17:59.0
where we kinda agree
18:01.0
and where we slightly digress from each other.
18:05.0
probably I a little bit more appreciate Duterte's ability
18:08.0
to recognize his mistake at the 11th hour.
18:11.0
You seem to be more skeptical than me.
18:13.0
At the same time,
18:14.0
I think I'm also a little bit appreciating
18:16.0
more BBM's ability to keep things on an even keel
18:19.0
and then press his advantage.
18:20.0
It's a very difficult skill.
18:21.0
It's a very high level skill.
18:23.0
But probably he has it.
18:25.0
Maybe he's better than we thought.
18:26.0
But I can completely agree also.
18:28.0
I can see completely your argument
18:29.0
that where you're coming from
18:30.0
in terms of your skepticism on both counts.
18:32.0
So maybe we can leave it there
18:34.0
and go to the second episode
18:35.0
which is more important.
18:37.0
none of our arguments will hold
18:39.0
if something big happens
18:40.0
on those two other fronts,
18:41.0
especially on ICC, right?
18:42.0
Like that completely scrambles everything, right?
18:44.0
So we froze those two variables
18:47.0
of ICC and to a certain degree CHA-CHA.
18:49.0
And that's what we're gonna discuss
18:50.0
in the next episode.
18:51.0
Thank you very much Secretary Ronald Llamas
18:54.0
Thank you for joining us
19:02.0
Happy Three Kings.
19:04.0
Happy Three Kings, sir.
19:08.0
Let's go to the next.
19:11.0
Bonjour, bonjour.
19:17.0
Doon sa episode 1.
19:21.0
Doon sa episode 1,
19:22.0
discuss natin Ronald yung ano, ha?
19:25.0
Yung what's happening.
19:26.0
How much of a ceasefire is this?
19:28.0
Is this ceasefire gonna hold?
19:29.0
Or is this even a ceasefire at all?
19:31.0
Or is this all signaling and noise?
19:39.0
any particular argument on that.
19:41.0
So each of us gave our conjectures, no?
19:43.0
Educated conjectures.
19:44.0
If we don't take into consideration
19:46.0
two important variables.
19:47.0
Unahin muna natin yung ICC.
19:49.0
Kasi Ronald, probably you have
19:50.0
no more information than me right now
19:51.0
because you're in Europe.
19:52.0
I don't know anong mga marites sayo.
19:54.0
Is it possible that the ICC may
19:56.0
push for warrants of arrest
19:60.0
or first half of this year
20:02.0
and then without any coordination
20:04.0
with the Philippine government?
20:05.0
Because ito yung argument ko, Ronald.
20:09.0
siguro mag-denegotiate ka with ICC.
20:11.0
Alam naman tayong ICC,
20:12.0
it's a judicial body
20:13.0
but it's not politically naive.
20:14.0
It's not geopolitically naive, right?
20:15.0
It takes many things into consideration.
20:17.0
That explains why probably
20:19.0
halos purong lahat ng mga nahuli nila so far
20:21.0
ay hindi European.
20:23.0
Except, I don't know,
20:24.0
some bunch of Yugoslavian people.
20:25.0
And bakit siguro ang bilis nila nag-react dun sa
20:29.0
and in-issue ng warrants of arrest kaagad si Putin
20:31.0
eh antagal-tagal dun sa mga ibang kaso sa Middle East.
20:33.0
And of course, Philippines right now.
20:35.0
So, is it possible that behind the scenes
20:38.0
ICC and BBM are talking and saying,
20:41.0
okay, ito yung gawin mong timing
20:43.0
and then kung ganito yung timing,
20:45.0
siguro mas ma-cooperate kami sa inyo
20:47.0
in terms of enforcement.
20:48.0
Kasi it's one thing for ICC to issue the warrants of arrest
20:51.0
or something along those lines
20:53.0
is another thing to make sure na
20:55.0
maging cooperative yung Philippine government.
20:57.0
Or do you think that ICC is just gonna push it,
21:01.0
and taking advantage of what's happening
21:03.0
whatever situation is happening in the Philippines?
21:05.0
Parang okay, maganda, mag-away kayong unit team,
21:07.0
pinagbigyan tayo ng kuwante,
21:08.0
pero even if hindi mag-cooperate itong mga BBM na ito,
21:10.0
ipupush na namin ito.
21:11.0
In short, are they gonna have a purely judicial approach
21:14.0
or there's gonna be some political negotiations
21:16.0
behind the scenes, etc.
21:18.0
And how do you think,
21:19.0
what do you think is BBM's preference?
21:21.0
What would he push for if behind the scenes
21:23.0
there is such negotiations?
21:25.0
Well, tama naman yung sabi mo,
21:27.0
beauty guard, no?
21:29.0
Hindi naman purely judicial lang yung konsiderasyon.
21:33.0
Hindi naman yung konsiderasyon ng ICC.
21:35.0
May mga political perspectives din naman yan.
21:38.0
Ang problema lang, Big R,
21:41.0
kaya yung mga tao kasi sa ICC
21:43.0
hindi naman mga permanent yan eh.
21:45.0
Nagbabago yan eh.
21:47.0
Yung prosecutor nagbabago,
21:48.0
yung mga judges nagbabago,
21:49.0
may mga terms yan.
21:50.0
At galing yan sa iba't ibang mga bansa eh.
21:53.0
So wala akong nakikita na permanent fulcrum.
21:55.0
Halimbawa sa United Nations,
21:57.0
na pag may bulo, may nagbabackdoor.
21:60.0
May naguusap, no?
22:01.0
Sa ICC, wala akong nakikita na
22:04.0
Kaya kahit yung mga tao ko dyan eh,
22:06.0
may mga political perspectives,
22:08.0
walang gagawa ng gano'ng klaseng negosasyon
22:10.0
na sinasabi mo, no?
22:11.0
Between the Philippine government at sila, no?
22:14.0
Ikalawa, ay may sariling timeframe ang ICC eh.
22:18.0
Baka doon, doon yung pwede nating sukatin
22:21.0
na kailan ba most probably
22:24.0
lalabas yung international warrant.
22:26.0
Usually, historically,
22:28.0
yung mga, yung proseso na yan
22:30.0
ay mga seven to eight years.
22:32.0
Yung proseso na yan.
22:34.0
At mukhang tayo ngayon, at this point,
22:37.0
nandun na tayo sa seven years na yan or more, no?
22:41.0
Kaya more or less, inaasahan na
22:43.0
based on their timeframe,
22:45.0
based on their, sabi nga lang iba,
22:47.0
napakabagal na proseso,
22:49.0
mukhang hahampas yan sooner than later.
22:55.0
Tapos, ikatlo, ay mahalaga kasi itong kaso
23:04.0
Dahil, ito yung first Asian na makakasuhan.
23:08.0
Usually kasi yan, Africans at saka mga
23:11.0
mga Yugoslav, former Yugoslavia,
23:14.0
yung mga nakakasuhan.
23:16.0
Ito yung first time na may Asian.
23:18.0
Kaya hindi rin sila pwedeng mag-dili-dali dito.
23:22.0
Dahil marami yung mga bumabalat sa kanila ay pinapanood.
23:26.0
Kami lang ba laging kinakasuhan? Afrika?
23:30.0
Exactly. Exactly.
23:31.0
Ang mga Serbians ang laging kinakasuhan, et cetera, et cetera.
23:34.0
Kaya nakatingin din sa kanila.
23:36.0
Nakatingin sa kanila.
23:37.0
Halong na ngayon ay may nagpa-plano na mag-file sa ICC.
23:45.0
So bago sila maulahan nitong Israeli-Gaza case,
23:52.0
kailangan na nilang i-resolve sooner than later itong kaso ni Digong.
23:57.0
The first Asian na nakasuhan.
23:59.0
Kaya based on that, hindi naman sila pwedeng pressuring,
24:03.0
o madaliin niyo, o magalan niyo.
24:06.0
Dumuda ako kung may ganun klase na capacity
24:09.0
between the ICC and the government na mag-uusap sa ganun level.
24:13.0
Pero within their time frame, mukhang halos exacto na yung preliminary investigation
24:21.0
na maglalabas ng international warrant ay napapanahon na.
24:29.0
ni former human rights lawyer, Harry Roque, na bisita rito ng ICC last month,
24:36.0
ay tingin ko ay within that time frame.
24:39.0
Last month ba? Sorry Ronald.
24:41.0
Late November, hindi ba? Late November?
24:44.0
December pa. Okay.
24:45.0
Pero late November, inamin ni Menardo Guevara na open sila logistically for them to come in.
24:50.0
They're not gonna kick you out.
24:51.0
Something like that. Okay.
24:53.0
Pero yung sinasabi mo na coordination.
24:57.0
Tingin ko tama naman yun.
24:58.0
Tingin ko tama naman yung sinasabi ni Justin Trimulla na wala,
25:01.0
na hindi, nung bumiyahin rito yung ICC, hindi naman sila nakipag-debating.
25:05.0
At least hindi pa.
25:07.0
Dahil gusto rin i-maintain ng gobyerno yung kanilang independence.
25:12.0
Plausible deniability. More like plausible deniability.
25:15.0
Hindi naman sila stooged ng ICC.
25:17.0
Pero pag in-issue na yung international warrant at yan ay i-implement na probably by Interpol,
25:24.0
hindi naman pwedeng hindi samahan yan ng gobyerno.
25:27.0
Hindi naman pwedeng hindi yan suportahan ng PNP or even ibang mga forces.
25:35.0
Dahil kung may nangyari dyan sa implementing people na yan, eh silang-silang tayo sa international.
25:41.0
Baka nga pagbintangan pa tayo na tayo ay kaput sa haba.
25:45.0
At wala pa nangyari ganyan. Wala pa nangyari ganyan na yung nag-implement ay napahamak.
25:51.0
So kailangan magprotektahan yan hindi lamang ng mga members ng ICC, kung hindi ng Philippine government.
25:56.0
Kung hindi mag-i-implement.
25:58.0
Lalo na, sabi nga ng Rana Flem, may more than 300 guns registered kay Digong.
26:04.0
So tapos kung i-implement yan sa Dabao...
26:08.0
Ano yung stand-off mode ang nakikita mo dito? Magdala ng SWAT? Ganon?
26:13.0
Oo. Tapos meron pang isang zero-sanggay na lang doon, si Pipuloy.
26:17.0
Kung mawala si Digong, yari siya. Diba?
26:22.0
So bubuhos na yung buong relihiyon niya.
26:25.0
In support of Duterte. So medyo magulo yan.
26:28.0
Kung hindi tutulungan ng gobyerno yung mag-i-implement ng warang.
26:37.0
Ako naman kasi, my argument on the ICC is...
26:41.0
Remember, nag-issue sila. They called on Russia to have a ceasefire.
26:45.0
Marami silang ginawa, tapos ineche-puera lang sila.
26:47.0
So I completely agree that there's a lot of pressure on ICC to do something to show na hindi lang sila biased na purong sub-Saharan African.
26:54.0
Or I don't know, Eastern European, ex-Soviet, ganon.
26:57.0
But at the same time, ayaw rin nila maging mukhang tanga. Diba?
27:01.0
Kasi sabi natin, issue silang warrant of arrest, totally no coordination with the Marcos administration.
27:06.0
Kasi ignore lang sila ng Marcos administration. Parang that's even worse, right?
27:09.0
So I don't know. Hindi ba pwede Chinese-style split their difference?
27:14.0
Yung matibong a little bit plausible deniability, a little bit coordination or fillers.
27:18.0
O guys, baka naman, baka naman okay na kayo. Magre-release na kami in two weeks.
27:22.0
I mean, I doubt na. There won't be. There won't be. There won't be. There won't be. There won't be.
27:23.0
I doubt na there won't be a little bit of that. Hindi kaya mid-range coordination.
27:27.0
Let's say low-range or mid-range coordination. Hindi full coordination.
27:33.0
Medyo mahirap. Dahil ang usapin lang naman dito ay international warrant.
27:38.0
At implementation ng international warrant. Diba?
27:42.0
So at the minimum, kahit hindi na tayo member ng ICC, the government has to protect them.
27:46.0
Lalo na kung may decision na yung gobyerno, nagpapasukin sila.
27:50.0
Medyo nakakatawa yung sabi na...
27:53.0
Sabi ng gobyerno na wala ka silang alam na pumasok dito.
27:59.0
Medyo mahirap yun dahil naman immigration. Ayan tayo eh.
28:03.0
Department of Justice. So I'm sure they will know.
28:06.0
Baka illegal. Baka illegal recruiter. Baka dun sa may sababa sila pumasok. Medyo Abu Sayyaf style.
28:13.0
Dahil nakapasok na at nakalabas na, that says a lot. Diba? That says a lot. Kahit sinasabi ng DOJ na hindi namin alam kung sila ay pumasok o hindi.
28:21.0
Medyo malabo yun. I'm there ng DOJ of Bureau of Immigration. So hindi pwedeng hindi nila alam.
28:29.0
So something is happening. Beyond dun sa lumalabas ng mga balita.
28:34.0
Kaya ako mas nag-lean ako dun sa pagtingin na natapos na yung issue sa ICC. Papayagan na yan.
28:42.0
Papayagan na yan. At masyadong mahirap na yan ay balikan ulit yung position early this year.
28:50.0
Totally sarado. Hindi papasokin. Etc. Etc. Baka mahirap na yung pingpong na dilidali. Mahirap naman yun eh.
28:59.0
Masisira na yung gobyerno. Lalo na, gustong gusto pa naman ni Bongbong na bumango siya sa international community.
29:06.0
Lalo na, dahil ini-invoke ng gobyerno yung international law sa usapin ng West Philippine Sea. Sa usapin ng UNCLOS.
29:14.0
Very good point. Very very good point. Very very good. Actually today, just today,
29:18.0
Birbeck, the foreign minister of Germany also was here. Someone who's known as a feminist, aggressive, green type of foreign minister.
29:27.0
So mukhang the Europeans, no? They're going all in on Marcos Jr. administration.
29:32.0
To be a partner in promotion of democratic values, human rights, and a rules-based international order.
29:39.0
So medyo ganun ang peg natin ngayon, di ba? I mean, before we close this episode on ICC and go to the cha-cha,
29:46.0
I think it's a very important episode also to discuss. Ikaw, pagdating dito sa ICC, do you think a part of this was also U.S. and some of the allies telling to Marcos,
29:56.0
Hoy, pare, pangalan mo Marcos Jr. May kaso ka pa dito sa amin. Medyo awkward, masyado kaming friendly sayo.
30:04.0
Siguro naman magpakitanggilas ka ng konti. Medyo palayahin mo si Layla. Medyo mag-cooperate ka naman ng ICC.
30:10.0
Do you think there's also an aspect to that of more than gentle, probably, nudge from Western partners?
30:16.0
Who are awkwardly embracing Marcos so tight, di ba?
30:20.0
Pusible dahil nasa gitna naman tayo ng the great game. The game of the superpowers.
30:26.0
Kaya hindi ko i-underestimate yung influence nila or at least attempts to influence yung ating local politics.
30:33.0
Pero in this case, alimbawa, yung kay Layla, matagal nang lohang-include siya for BBM.
30:39.0
Ang dominant lang diyan kung bakit hindi niya kagad pinakawalan si Layla ay dahil doon sa unity.
30:46.0
Nung nawala na yung unity, mabilis na yung hindi nila i-pressure yung judiciary, hindi nila i-pressure yung mga prosecutors na i-delay yung bail.
30:58.0
Lalo na, wala nang witnesses eh. Or almost, ubus na yung witnesses. So, tingin ko it has less to do with pressure ng US.
31:05.0
Baka man, may mga resolution yung US Congress, US Senate, European Parliament, IPU. Marami na yan in the past few years.
31:16.0
In spite of that, ang tingin ko, ang main decision pa rin ni BBM na huwag makialam doon sa proseso.
31:25.0
Dahil kung hindi siya makikialam, talagang bibigyan ng bail si Layla. Dahil wala nang witnesses eh.
31:31.0
Tsaka mahina naman talaga yung case from the start. Wala nang mga corpus delicti eh. Wala nang mga smoking guns.
31:38.0
Medyo sabog masyado yung kaso.
31:39.0
Wala nang drugs, wala nang pera, wala nang evidence yan.
31:43.0
Talagang joke time yung kaso.
31:46.0
Kaya sinabi ng mga witnesses na pinipressure sila ng Secretary of Justice, etc.
31:53.0
So talagang from the start ay pwede naman niyang gawin ni BBM. Hindi lang niyang magawa because of the unity.
31:60.0
At nung wala na yung unity, ginawa na niya.
32:03.0
Tingin ko mas yun yung dynamic dito. Has less to do with, bagamat meron, has less to do with the pressures from the superpowers.
32:16.0
At least dito sa usapin nito.
32:20.0
Right. So you think even a gentle nudge probably was not needed.
32:23.0
Now, last point on this. There's of course the aspect of Kiboloy and SMNI. I don't know about the bloggers. Maybe they don't matter as much.
32:31.0
If the ICC warrant of virus is gonna come and you're expecting some resistance, etc.
32:37.0
Do you think PEDEC government will also move on the Kiboloy issue, the FBI and warrant of arrest, whatever?
32:45.0
Wanted list, diba? And also the SMNI issue na.
32:49.0
Kasi diba, that will be one of the ways na the pro-Duterte camp might fight through their sympathetic media channels, etc.
32:55.0
Do you think na pwede nila isabay lahat yun? Diba? Pwede yan, diba? I mean, you go for it. All in na, diba?
33:03.0
Susubukan nila. Pero mismo kasi SMNI ay under attack.
33:07.0
Mismo yung entablado na yun ay baka hindi nila magamit na gusto. Diba?
33:15.0
Kahit ini-invoke nila ang press freedom, kahit ini-invoke nila ang harassment, tingin mo may inihirapan sila na gamitin yung entablado na yun.
33:24.0
At saka ibang kaso yung Kiboloy eh. Pwede mangyari anytime eh. Extradition yun eh.
33:31.0
Mag-request lang yung U.S. ng extradition, may ihirapang tumanggi yung gobyerno dahil clearly ay mayroong ganun classic treaty na existing.
33:41.0
Hindi yung ICC na may gray area na pwede pa, hindi ba pwede dahil umalis na tayo.
33:46.0
Yung sa extradition, very clear yan. At medyo heavy, medyo malalim yung kaso. Pedophilia, rape, money laundering, human trafficking.
33:59.0
Medyo seryoso ang U.S. sa ganyan klase mga kaso. Hindi yan basta-basta lang. At mahirap yan i-negotiate politically.
34:09.0
I-negotiate naman yung judiciary ng U.S. sa kanilang political system eh.
34:13.0
Kaya baka man, tingin ko ay they will welcome yung arrest ni Digong na ang tingin nila siya yung foothold, siya yung main supporter ng China sa Pilipinas.
34:29.0
They will welcome nila yan. Pero kung makakaroon sila ng active role dito sa ICC, they're not even a member of the ICC.
34:38.0
They're not even a member niyan. Kaya at lalo na ngayon na yung dinedefensahan nila yung Israel, pwede yung makasasuhan sa ICC, tingin ko...
34:46.0
Imminent yung decision na yan, di ba? I think imminent yung decision, yung first decision nun.
34:51.0
And whether mag-call for cease-fire ng ICC.
34:54.0
Mag-negotiate with the ICC sa usapin ni Digong.
34:58.0
Ma, pwede paingin nung charger ng phone ko? Ma, yung charger ng phone ko sa room. Yung black.
35:03.0
International warrant.
35:05.0
Tingin ko merong sariling buhay na yan.
35:07.0
Na basically dominated ng ICC. Lalong-lalo na hawak na nila yung smoking gun.
35:13.0
Hawak na nila si Las Cañas.
35:18.0
Kaya seryoso na sila.
35:19.0
Medyo next level.
35:20.0
Hawak na nila eh.
35:23.0
Thank you so much for that, si Carly Almas. Next episode, let's talk about Chacha naman. This is very important.
35:29.0
I thought pwede natin squeeze yun, pero actually yung ICC pa lang ang daming angle.
35:33.0
At sya, maganda itong discussion natin kasi we didn't talk about the logistics.
35:36.0
And the geopolitics of ICC decisions also.
35:39.0
It doesn't mean na ICC is not fair. We're just saying hindi rin sila tangad.
35:43.0
But they've taken into consideration many factors.
35:45.0
So I really appreciate your intervention at that point. Thank you very much, sir.
35:51.0
Okay. Ito na tayo. Chacha.
35:54.0
Bossing Ronald Llamas. Silvo Ple. Let's talk about the issue of charter change. Kasi ganito.
35:60.0
Actually, I just had a piece come out in Journal of Democracy. So ito yung mga, you know, sila Francis Puga.
36:05.0
Where I argued that actually kung titignan mo si BBM, literally ito yung sinabi ko.
36:11.0
When Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the namesake son of the late dictator, won an emphatic victory in the 2022 elections,
36:18.0
many feared that he would follow in the footsteps of his late father.
36:21.0
In other words, he would build on the authoritarian populist legacy of his immediate predecessor.
36:25.0
Rodrigo Duterte oversaw widespread human rights violations with impunity throughout his six years reign of office.
36:31.0
In fact, I warned in an earlier journal article that he could turn out to be a traitor.
36:34.0
I warned in an earlier journal article that he could turn out not to be just the Bunaire career underachiever,
36:38.0
but also an insidious threat to Philippine democracy.
36:40.0
And yet, instead, and to the surprise of many, Marcos Jr. has emerged as an unlikely quote-unquote reformer,
36:46.0
as well as a tough defender of the Philippine sovereign rights in the South China Sea.
36:50.0
But I had a lot of caveat.
36:52.0
And my biggest caveat was that, okay, he did good, good, good on the Lima, good, good, good on West Philippine Sea.
36:58.0
But where I'm a little bit worried about is what I said towards the end.
37:02.0
I somehow, I'm still sticking with my initial argument, which is Marcos Jr. may favor switching to a parliamentary system
37:09.0
run perhaps by Speaker Romualdez after the six-year term,
37:13.0
though the namesake son of the former dictator may still end up as a potential threat to Philippine democracy
37:19.0
or at least the existing constitutional order, albeit in a more surreptitious manner.
37:23.0
But also to the Dutertes.
37:25.0
So now let's talk about this.
37:27.0
And of course, this is where I'm very Ronald Llamas.
37:31.0
but will the Dutertes go gently into the political oblivion?
37:35.0
It seems doubtful, right?
37:37.0
So this is where I went the Ronald Llamas way.
37:40.0
So you see what I did there.
37:41.0
My point is, so far in fairness, BBM, not too bad.
37:45.0
But if he pushes for Chacha and all, Ferdinand Marcos, charter change, constitutional change,
37:51.0
like that doesn't sound very reassuring, right?
37:54.0
And it might make it look like all these two years of nice reform, whatever, was just to set it up for something else.
37:60.0
And that us, we were all being so focused on the UNITEAM and Dutertes,
38:05.0
we're forgetting that behind the scenes, maybe they're pushing for the Chacha.
38:08.0
What is your read on this Chacha thing?
38:09.0
First of all, do you think there's a good chance that Marcos may pull off a Chacha?
38:14.0
And do you think that he has a good reason for that?
38:16.0
Because my sense is, a parliamentary system would be perfect for him, right?
38:20.0
Let's be honest, Martin Romualdo's approval is like, what, 32% or something like that?
38:24.0
Even lower than when Arroyo was Speaker.
38:27.0
And then itatapat mo kay Sarah, 2028.
38:30.0
Parang, I don't know.
38:32.0
So maybe a parliamentary system would be the best way for him to engineer a happy succession.
38:37.0
And in fact, he can remain as a head of state if we have a kind of an old Turkish system or Italian system.
38:43.0
In Italy, there's a president, symbolic, but technically still head of state.
38:47.0
So meron ka pa rin sovereign immunity.
38:49.0
You get what I'm saying?
38:50.0
So what is your read on this whole Chacha question?
38:55.0
The latest iteration of Chacha question.
38:58.0
And people initiative.
38:60.0
From two vantage points.
39:01.0
Yung isa, yung pagtingin talaga sa itong mga constitutional changes.
39:10.0
Dahil ang Constitution naman talaga should be a living document.
39:15.0
Na open sa process ng pagbabago at saka changes.
39:19.0
Yun naman ang nature ng Constitution.
39:20.0
It's a social puppet.
39:21.0
At ang main argument, ang main na essence ng Constitution is to protect the minority.
39:27.0
Ma, yung black na lang kunin mo.
39:28.0
Yung black na charger.
39:29.0
Yung pala man eh.
39:30.0
Yung mga mahihiyang mga sektor, yun ang nangangailangan ng protection.
39:34.0
At dyan po nga pasok ang Constitution.
39:36.0
At dyan po nga pasok ang Constitution.
39:38.0
Yung mga shift to another system ay importante rin.
39:43.0
Because at particular moments, baka yung lumang system ay hindi naubra.
39:48.0
Pero kahit sinasabi natin yan, ibang usapin yung paano mo na gagawin yan.
39:55.0
Right, right, right.
39:56.0
Dahil it's not simply...
39:57.0
It's not simply a shift from an old one to a new one.
40:01.0
Ang mahalaga are the requirements.
40:06.0
Halimbawa ako, sangayon ako sa federal system pero you don't federate overnight.
40:12.0
Or else you will be federating warlordism, inequality, poverty, and all the ills of both systems.
40:21.0
Yan yung mangyayari.
40:22.0
Maganda ang parliamentary system.
40:24.0
Dahil mas naiiwasan yung mga crises, political crises, na usually nangyayari sa isang presidential system.
40:33.0
Well, except if you're Bangladesh, Iraq.
40:35.0
I mean, I can give you many parliamentary systems which are a mess.
40:38.0
I mean, just look at Bangladesh, what happened.
40:40.0
Sheikh Hasina and the TRAPOS took over the system.
40:44.0
Ikalawa ay maganda siya dahil political parties ang nagpapasya.
40:51.0
Hindi lang mga personalities. Hindi.
40:53.0
So theoretically, platforms ang pag-uusapan.
40:57.0
Not personalities.
40:60.0
Yan yung mangyayari.
41:01.0
But in reality, there are parliamentary systems and there are parliamentary systems.
41:05.0
Exactly, exactly mo.
41:07.0
Kaya nga dati nung nagsalita ako sa Senate, yung mga senators are talking about a German model.
41:15.0
Ayan na naman tayo.
41:16.0
Alemania, Alemania.
41:19.0
What German model are you talking about?
41:21.0
Iba yung nangyayari sa Germany.
41:23.0
Iba yung kanilang kasaysayan. Iba yung kanilang political dynamics.
41:27.0
At iba yung kanilang system.
41:30.0
Yung kanilang parliamentary system. Iba yan sa ibang parliamentary system.
41:34.0
Nag-charge ako guys.
41:37.0
Di ba? Lagi na natin pinag-uusapan.
41:40.0
Nung gusto ni Digong na mag-shift to a federal system, tinanong siya kung anong modelo.
41:44.0
Ang sabi niya, the French system.
41:46.0
Which is not federal.
41:48.0
Kaya ibang usapin pa kung ano ba talaga.
41:51.0
Ibang usapin pa kung ano ba talaga yung actual na gusto mo.
41:56.0
Maliban dun sa mga principles ng charter change.
42:02.0
At panghuli, yung pangdukta, yung political objectives nung nagtutulap ng charter change now.
42:09.0
Yun yung nag-create hindi lang confusion, hindi lamang division,
42:18.0
kundi ng mga contradictions.
42:21.0
Halimbawa, malina naman last year na mayroong push for charter change through a constitutional convention.
42:28.0
Di ba? Hindi natuloy dahil mismo ang Presidente ang sabi ay wala sa timing.
42:35.0
At hindi siya priority.
42:37.0
So, it fizzled out.
42:40.0
Ngayon, ang tulak naman ay people's initiative.
42:44.0
Which is suspicious, isn't it? Right?
42:46.0
Isn't it kind of suspicious?
42:47.0
Don't you think there's a chance that they...
42:49.0
Well, I mean, this is the accusation.
42:51.0
Parang nire-railroad nila.
42:52.0
So, let us go to the accusations.
42:54.0
So, interestingly, Ronald, for almost six months, you and I have been having R&R,
42:60.0
and always our line is, the realignment is medyo pink and BBM, right?
43:06.0
We'll discuss even later on si Ralph Recto.
43:09.0
Well, not necessarily pink-dilaw, but who knows, maybe more.
43:12.0
But we can talk about that separately.
43:14.0
But now, you have a situation whereby,
43:16.0
Edsel Lagman, the head of the Liberal Party,
43:19.0
simultaneously with Aimee Marcos,
43:21.0
the super prodigong person,
43:24.0
both coming out and attacking this people's initiative,
43:27.0
and making some serious allegations na
43:29.0
this is not looking like a people's initiative.
43:31.0
This looks like taxpayers' money going to certain ways
43:34.0
to persuade certain people to push for this.
43:37.0
You know what I'm saying?
43:38.0
So, how do you see these people?
43:42.0
Isn't it a circumvention?
43:45.0
Questionable, serious, insidious strategy?
43:48.0
Well, una kasi, they don't have the luxury of time.
43:52.0
Kailangan talaga din ang mabilisin yan eh.
43:54.0
Three stages yan eh.
43:56.0
Yung una, yung people's initiative itself.
43:58.0
Minimum 3% ng all congressional districts,
44:02.0
at 12% ng buong voting population nationwide,
44:06.0
which is less than 8 million.
44:08.0
Less than 8 million yan.
44:10.0
7 point something.
44:14.0
So, kailangan nila makuha yan.
44:22.0
yung people's initiative,
44:24.0
na-reject na yan nung panahon ng FPR eh.
44:27.0
Na-reject na yan dahil walang implementing rules.
44:30.0
Walang implementing rules.
44:32.0
Nagkaroon ba ng implementing rules since then?
44:37.0
At wala rin Supreme Court ruling on it.
44:39.0
Last time I checked.
44:40.0
There's also no Supreme...
44:42.0
May judicial difficulty.
44:48.0
Ikalawa, yung grupong na-reject, yung PIRMA,
44:53.0
eh sila ngayon yung active ngayon.
44:55.0
Sila yung humaharap dito sa EDSA Pueyengaraan.
44:60.0
Napanood mo pala yan.
45:04.0
Story repeating itself.
45:05.0
Dapat pumuha naman sila ng iba.
45:07.0
Wala ba silang ibang makuha?
45:10.0
Si Robin Padilla.
45:11.0
Ito yung ita yung type ng rejection.
45:13.0
Eh ngayon, nung isang araw kasi pro-Chacha si Robin.
45:17.0
Ngayon, anti-Chacha na siya.
45:19.0
Oo nga. Kasi gets niya anong mangyari.
45:21.0
Dahil nga rito sa bilihan.
45:24.0
Dito sa mga signatures.
45:26.0
So, the plot thickens.
45:29.0
At it's not going very well.
45:32.0
It's not going very well.
45:33.0
So, yun yung unang stage.
45:35.0
Yung People's Initiative na maraming problema.
45:39.0
yun yung Congress and Senate
45:41.0
voting separately or together.
45:44.0
Ang alam ko, may moves ngayon.
45:46.0
Dahil nga may blessing na ni BPM,
45:48.0
hindi na pumuha kontra si Mick Sufiri,
45:50.0
the Senate President.
45:52.0
Ang problema, do they have two-thirds?
45:55.0
Do they have two-thirds of their votes?
45:58.0
Duda ako at this point kung meron silang two-thirds.
46:02.0
Yun yung second stage.
46:04.0
At ikatlo, yung plebiscite itself.
46:06.0
At lahat ito, kailangan mangyari soon.
46:09.0
Yun yung problema dito.
46:11.0
Kaya lumalabas yung mga problema ng
46:13.0
niraragasa, sinasagasaan,
46:16.0
vote buying, signature buying.
46:20.0
Kaya lumalabas yan dahil na pressured sila ng time.
46:24.0
Pressured sila ng time.
46:26.0
Ang kaibahan lang from last year,
46:28.0
ito may blessing ng Presidente.
46:30.0
So magagamit mo yung buong machinery,
46:33.0
yung buong political capital ng Presidente,
46:35.0
and the resources.
46:38.0
bumabanat yung mga opposition at saka new opposition.
46:43.0
Saan nang gagaling yung pera?
46:45.0
Saan nang gagaling yung pera?
46:47.0
Bakit ang daming anecdotal na balita
46:51.0
na binibili yung signature through ayuda
46:56.0
or through direct signature buying?
46:60.0
So yan, alam mo naman sa Pilipinas,
47:02.0
mahirap itago yan.
47:04.0
Ngayon yung bola ay nasa Comelec.
47:06.0
Pero alam din naman natin na yung Comelec
47:08.0
ay hindi naman ito yung katulad sa ibang bansa
47:11.0
na very independent.
47:14.0
Appointive yan eh.
47:16.0
Very vulnerable yan sa pressures.
47:20.0
Pero sa ngayon, hawak nila yung bola.
47:22.0
Sila yung titingin kung tama ba yung people's initiative.
47:27.0
Sila ba yung titingin kung meron ba talagang signature buying.
47:31.0
At sila yung magbibigay ng bendisyon kung pupunta sa second stage.
47:36.0
So yan yung nangyayari.
47:39.0
At all of that, a lot of moving parts,
47:42.0
kailangan mangyari at the same time.
47:45.0
Alam mo naman natin, hindi kaya ka-efficient
47:49.0
yung ating mga political organizations.
47:54.0
Kaya maraming susulpot ng problema.
47:57.0
Ibang usapin pa kung ano yung gusto ba talagang gawin.
47:60.0
Ano ba talaga yung gustong palitan sa Constitution?
48:04.0
Kaya kung titignan mo yung TV ad, yung EDSA Kuwera,
48:08.0
parang masyado namang foreign ang dating.
48:12.0
Masyado parang binibenta mo naman yung bansa sa mga foreigners.
48:17.0
Parang kulang sa predicate eh.
48:19.0
Kulang sa presentation.
48:22.0
Parang ito yung problema ng EDSA,
48:25.0
ng EDSA Constitution.
48:27.0
Ito yung kailangan natin gawin.
48:29.0
Kaya i-welcome natin lahat ng mga dayuhan.
48:32.0
So medyo kulang yung politikang narrative.
48:36.0
Walang argument naman nila.
48:38.0
Dahil lang sa restrictions sa investment ang dahilan.
48:41.0
So tinanggal mo yun magically, everything will be fine.
48:44.0
Alam mo naman yung mga simplistic na arguments na ganyan.
48:47.0
Kaya nga lalong nag-suspend siya yung mga tao.
48:50.0
Kung ganyan ang sinasabi mo, ano yung nakatago?
48:53.0
Yung pinag-uusapan natin kanina,
48:56.0
yung ba ay shift of parliamentary system?
48:59.0
Na yung prime minister, o magpapatakbo ng gobyerno,
49:02.0
at yung presidente, yung magre-represent ng state.
49:06.0
The state representative and the government leader.
49:10.0
Yan ba yung ating pinopropose?
49:12.0
Yan ba sa transitory provisions ay ililift ang mga term limits?
49:17.0
Ililift ba yan, even the president?
49:20.0
So ang daming mga if, if, if.
49:23.0
At lahat yan ang nangyayari at the same time.
49:26.0
Lahat yan ang nangyayari at the same time.
49:28.0
Kaya hindi ko sigurado.
49:31.0
Bibilib ako if they can do all of this at the same time
49:38.0
and surpass all the attacks and contradictions.
49:42.0
Mas delicate din para sa oposisyon.
49:46.0
Dahil in-invoke kasi yung EDSA eh.
49:50.0
So yung mga natitira ng mga support,
49:53.0
alam naman natin na may problema yung mga EDSA institutions.
49:56.0
Pero you don't throw the baby with the bathwater.
49:59.0
Kaya nagkaroon ng bagong stimulant ngayon,
50:03.0
yung mga pro-EDSA, pro-yellow, pink wave.
50:07.0
Baka magkaroon sila ng bagong buhay.
50:12.0
At the same time, yung mga Duterte na besieged
50:16.0
at nalilito kung anong gagawin,
50:18.0
baka magkaroon ng political narrative.
50:20.0
Ang usapin, almost impossible na magsama ka yan.
50:24.0
So paano gagawin niyang track na yan,
50:28.0
na hindi yung magsasama?
50:30.0
Baka nga magbanatan pa eh.
50:32.0
Yun naman yung...
50:33.0
Yun nga eh. Tama ka.
50:34.0
Yun sa nag-a-oppose.
50:35.0
Kaya nga sabi mo kanina, masaya.
50:38.0
Masaya talaga to.
50:40.0
Dahil hindi siya one side.
50:47.0
Ang daming sides eh.
50:48.0
At saka ang daming angles eh.
50:50.0
Tawag dyan hybrid warfare.
50:53.0
Dito nagtatribe yung mga political analysts katulad nyo.
50:56.0
Dito kayo naghahanap buhay eh.
50:58.0
Sa ganitong klaseng mga kalagayan.
51:01.0
Kakasabi mo lang.
51:03.0
Kakasabi mo lang sabi nung isang political analyst.
51:06.0
Wala naman problema sa UNITEAM.
51:08.0
Everything is good.
51:14.0
Lahat dito, pati yung mga political analysts,
51:18.0
nagtatribe sa ganitong...
51:20.0
Kahit mga non-analyst, nag-analyst na.
51:22.0
Meron silang softbox eh.
51:24.0
Meron silang softbox, no?
51:29.0
Mga hekler lang kami.
51:31.0
Mga professional political analysts.
51:34.0
Tulfo style yan eh, hekler.
51:36.0
Nako, yung isang hekler naging senador na.
51:38.0
Yung kapwa dito yung maging pre-senador.
51:40.0
Ito, last point dito sa chacha issue.
51:43.0
Honestly, are you worried?
51:47.0
Do you think we should be worried about this chacha?
51:49.0
Sa tingin mo, kailangan mag-ingay lahat?
51:51.0
Ba't i-DDS and pinklawan?
51:52.0
Just to make sure hindi...
51:55.0
Parang yun lang yung best chance mo
51:57.0
na hindi manalo ni Sara
51:60.0
or make sure na yung isang preferred successor mo
52:04.0
I'm talking about BBM, right?
52:05.0
Ang taas ng incentive niya to push for this, diba?
52:07.0
And hindi kaya better after 2025?
52:09.0
Pag talagang na-dominate nila yung race?
52:14.0
Well, after 2025 nga,
52:16.0
lagi ko sinasabi, diba Big R?
52:18.0
Baka magbago yung complexion eh.
52:21.0
Dahil nagtitignan lang ng mga...
52:23.0
Hindi lang ng mga political panelists.
52:26.0
Hindi lang ng mga power centers.
52:28.0
Sinong leading sa presidential race?
52:33.0
Magshi-shift pa yung power.
52:35.0
Kung hindi mawasak si Sara,
52:38.0
kung hindi siya masama sa ICC case...
52:40.0
Kaya nga yung episode...
52:43.0
Yun nga, yun nga.
52:44.0
Hindi naman lahat isasama sa ICC case.
52:48.0
Focus on two or three,
52:51.0
Kaya kung hindi mangyarihan,
52:54.0
Delikado yung mga marcoses post midterm.
52:58.0
Yung mga marcos ay iniisip,
52:60.0
this has to be resolved now,
53:02.0
not after the midterm.
53:03.0
Dahil magbabago yung complexion
53:05.0
ng political landscape,
53:07.0
political loyalties,
53:09.0
after the midterm.
53:10.0
So you're saying 2024 is the golden year for BBM?
53:13.0
If you want something big.
53:14.0
In fact, BBM himself said in 2015
53:17.0
when he was a senator,
53:18.0
na if you want to change the constitution,
53:20.0
do it early in your term in office.
53:22.0
He said something like that.
53:23.0
Tudigong pa yung advice na eventually
53:25.0
the same ng 2017.
53:30.0
Tama yung sabi mo.
53:33.0
A lot of things will happen.
53:36.0
For the best, God willing.
53:39.0
Let's go to the last episode.
53:41.0
Thank you so much, Sir Llamas.
53:45.0
Let's talk about a little bit
53:46.0
our favorite persons.
53:48.0
Balikan natin itong
53:49.0
minamahal mong sekretary dati.
53:53.0
Katrabaho mo yan.
53:56.0
hopes that Mar Rojas may still
53:58.0
get back on the saddle
53:60.0
were somehow rekindled
54:02.0
with the appointment of Ralph Recto,
54:05.0
the former netta sekretary, senator.
54:07.0
It was Liberal Party, right?
54:09.0
Or kind of with Liberal Party.
54:10.0
I remember I saw him back in the day
54:12.0
dito sa Cubao, right?
54:13.0
At quarters ng LP.
54:14.0
I think 2010 elections yan.
54:16.0
I remember that very well.
54:21.0
I remember na he was rewarded
54:22.0
for his push dun sa...
54:25.0
Anong tax ba yan?
54:27.0
Binigyan siya ng NEDA.
54:28.0
Although, parang may questions
54:31.0
kung talagang nag-aaral siya
54:32.0
ng economics sa Lazada.
54:33.0
Ewan mo, may nagsabi na
54:34.0
Recto, bank niya.
54:35.0
Let's not go there.
54:39.0
what has been said
54:40.0
for a few months.
54:41.0
So first narinig ko,
54:42.0
last year pa lang actually,
54:43.0
na joke na doesn't wanna stay
54:45.0
in the finance for long.
54:46.0
Mukhang preference niya
54:47.0
back to central bank.
54:48.0
I don't know if that's
54:50.0
He has a lot to offer
54:52.0
to the private sector
54:53.0
once he goes back there.
54:54.0
Parang nag-negotiate siya
54:55.0
to stay for a year more.
54:57.0
Pero hindi na pinayahan ka.
54:59.0
So I think they wanted
55:01.0
kasi transition yan.
55:03.0
Frederick Goh also
55:05.0
The whole Gokong Wei conglomerate
55:07.0
as a economic czar
55:08.0
with some degree of power,
55:10.0
supervisory power.
55:12.0
So interesting happening.
55:13.0
So semi-technocratic,
55:14.0
semi-liberalish figures
55:20.0
what is your read
55:21.0
on the Ralph Recto one?
55:23.0
this says something about
55:24.0
the whole Grand Coalition plan?
55:26.0
Pwede ba paring tuluyan?
55:29.0
and some other guys
55:30.0
from the somehow other side.
55:32.0
Somehow other side.
55:34.0
without undermining
55:36.0
ex-senator Ralph Recto.
55:40.0
Ako, I would rather
55:41.0
have a technocrat
55:42.0
than a politician
55:43.0
sa finance portfolio.
55:46.0
Pero nag-ne-da na daw siya.
55:48.0
Nag-ne-da naman siya.
55:54.0
So, ikaw na bahal
55:55.0
ang umatwal sa iyong
55:56.0
kapwal lasal yan.
55:58.0
Nagturo lang naman ako doon.
56:03.0
I don't know about his degree
56:05.0
sekretary naman siya.
56:09.0
probably learned a thing or two
56:10.0
as a technocrat there.
56:12.0
hindi pa siguran natin
56:17.0
mas better sa akin na
56:18.0
isa na lang yan eh.
56:20.0
Naguguluhan ako doon
56:21.0
sa mga divisions na yan eh.
56:25.0
how they complement each other.
56:30.0
yung mga director,
56:40.0
Red tape, red tape.
56:45.0
tingin ko walang relasyon eh.
56:52.0
wala ko nakitang relasyon na
56:58.0
tinitignan pa nila
56:59.0
mas personality eh.
57:06.0
yung political color.
57:08.0
yung political color
57:09.0
ay madaling magbago
57:12.0
na hindi nagbabago
57:13.0
ang political color eh.
57:15.0
nasa paligid natin,
57:16.0
parang nagpapalit lang
57:19.0
parang may mali sa atin,
57:21.0
Ang nagpapalit lang sa atin,
57:25.0
of the same color.
57:26.0
Yung iba, parang,
57:28.0
bakit ka nandyan?
57:29.0
Diba nandito kakapon?
57:31.0
Parang lugi tayo eh.
57:34.0
or yung magagandang mga jackets.
57:38.0
naka puffer puffer.
57:39.0
Ngayon, ako naka ano lang,
57:40.0
football shirt lang eh.
57:41.0
Pero yung mga yan,
57:43.0
they deal with them
57:44.0
not as political parties,
57:45.0
not as ideological parties
57:47.0
na wala naman talaga.
57:49.0
So they deal with them
57:50.0
as personalities.
57:51.0
Okay ba si Ralph?
57:54.0
Okay ba si Balitsakan?
57:57.0
Okay ba si Jerry Acuzar?
58:01.0
I doubt kung nakita nila
58:06.0
At ano yung political loyalties
58:10.0
Or whether ito ay
58:11.0
makakasama sa kanila o hindi.
58:13.0
Basta ganun yung batayan.
58:17.0
Parang Cool Boys Club?
58:19.0
Forbes Boys Club?
58:20.0
Parang ganun bang dating sa'yo?
58:21.0
Well, ang problema kasi
58:23.0
dahil matagal silang nawala,
58:24.0
wala silang kaban
58:25.0
na pagpupuhaan ng mga tao.
58:30.0
parang last song syndrome.
58:31.0
Sino ba yung huli nakausap?
58:33.0
Sino ba yung huli
58:34.0
yung nagbigay na...
58:35.0
Or scraping the bottom.
58:42.0
Ayun yung pagiging problema
58:43.0
kung matagal kang nawala.
58:46.0
nagreklamo yung mga
58:47.0
Marcos loyalists,
58:48.0
yung mga kababayan mo sa Ilocos.
58:51.0
bakit hindi sila kinukuha?
58:52.0
Eh bakit naman sila pupunin?
58:54.0
Saan mo'y lalagay
58:55.0
si Elizabeth Corapesa?
58:57.0
Wala akong sinasabi,
58:58.0
wag mo ako paamak,
58:59.0
babalik ako sa Ilocos.
59:01.0
Saan mo'y lalagay
59:02.0
yung mga Marcos loyalists?
59:09.0
Parang anti-Marcos loyalists yan eh.
59:19.0
Parang si Maharlika,
59:25.0
ang kanilang process
59:26.0
ng decision making
59:31.0
hindi ko pa sigurado
59:32.0
anong talaga yung process
59:33.0
ng decision making.
59:35.0
Parang nung panahon ni Digong,
59:38.0
Meron silang list.
59:41.0
Meron silang selection committee.
59:43.0
Kung may tumalaw kay Digong,
59:46.0
Kung sino yung tumalaw,
59:48.0
O, si Gina Lopez na sa DNR.
59:51.0
Si Yasay na sa DOF.
59:53.0
So, yung list nila nasira.
59:55.0
Kaya yung decision making nila
59:56.0
is centered around
59:57.0
yung personality ni Digong.
60:01.0
I'm not yet too sure.
60:04.0
Sinasabi nung iba,
60:05.0
oh, mahalaga yung decision ni First Lady.
60:08.0
Sinasabi nung iba,
60:13.0
sige lang, go lang.
60:14.0
Sinasabi nung iba.
60:16.0
Oh, sinasabi nung iba ay
60:18.0
merong team na nagdi-desisyon, no?
60:21.0
Ako, duda pa ako dyan, eh.
60:25.0
Alimawa, alam ko sa Secretary of Health,
60:29.0
Sa Secretary of Health ay...
60:33.0
Sorry, sorry, yung kamay ko.
60:34.0
Yeah, yeah, sorry.
60:35.0
Pero last minute ay merong inihabol.
60:39.0
So, I'm not too sure how decisions are made.
60:41.0
Alimawa sa appointments.
60:42.0
Siguro, baka by the mid-term, alam na natin kung paano.
60:48.0
So, ang sinasabi mo, may sabog yung proseso na recruitment and all of that.
60:53.0
I mean, also it's because nawala yung si Vic Rodriguez, no?
60:56.0
And wala naman talagang replacement siya, di ba?
60:59.0
In a sense of the same level of comfort, etc.
61:01.0
So, what you're saying is,
61:04.0
parang hindi pa rin maayos yung organizational structure
61:09.0
and running of itong...
61:11.0
Marcos administration.
61:13.0
Although, even though he's entering already the mid-terms time.
61:16.0
Ayan, shoutout tayo.
61:17.0
Marami tayong mga followers from Bangladesh, South Korea.
61:20.0
Ayan, marami na tayong mga afam din ng followers.
61:24.0
Ano nga lang Ronald?
61:28.0
Ayan, okay lang yan.
61:29.0
Last 10 minutes na lang kaya natin yan.
61:32.0
So, what you're saying, Ronald, is malabo si Marrojas?
61:35.0
So, parang tingin mo, it's just a comfort level thing.
61:38.0
And it just happened that BBM was comfy with the...
61:40.0
Comfy with Ralph Recto.
61:43.0
So, yeah, let's go with that.
61:45.0
And mukhang mabagong naman si Ralph Recto siguro sa investment community.
61:48.0
Ang sinasabi ko lang, Big R,
61:50.0
walang relasyon yung appointment ni Ralph Recto sa Marrojas.
61:53.0
Sa political alignment.
61:54.0
Yan ang sinasabi ko.
61:55.0
Okay, I see what you're saying.
61:57.0
For now, alam ko may tumutulak sa DOTR.
62:01.0
Pero so far, ayaw naman palitan ni BBM si Bautista.
62:05.0
Meron ding tumutulak sa DTI.
62:09.0
At balita ko, may mga na-interview na tungkol na diyan.
62:17.0
Pero until it happens, alam mo ba, kahit yung Recto, until it happens, it will never happen.
62:23.0
Yan yung nangyayari.
62:25.0
Pero tingin ko yung kay Ralph, makasigurado na yan.
62:27.0
Dahil ang balita ko, balita ko ay nag-request yung incumbent na mag-extend pa ng one year.
62:36.0
Pero mukhang hindi na napayagan.
62:38.0
Yan yung nangyayari.
62:39.0
Kaya more or less sigurado na.
62:41.0
Yung iba na si Chismis, I'm not too sure.
62:44.0
Ang tingin ko yung kay Bautista ay, bagamat may mga taipans na nagtutulak at may mga bumabanat kay Bautista,
62:51.0
mukhang hindi pa willing si BBM na i-let go si Bautista.
62:57.0
DTI, favorite eh.
63:02.0
Favorite mo yan eh.
63:03.0
Favorite mo yung DTI talaga eh.
63:05.0
Mukhang beating all odds pa rin ang DTI eh.
63:06.0
Talo pa ang Bitcoin dyan.
63:09.0
Okay, last point dito sa...
63:12.0
Balikan natin itong debate na, now with the Chacha question coming in strong,
63:16.0
do you think there's more reason for the opposition to try to win also national positions or do you think there's less?
63:23.0
I mean, I know your analysis already implies certain thing which is slightly different from my take.
63:27.0
Pero ako kasi ang take ko, Ronald, is if they don't get it through now, they'll try to finish,
63:33.0
well, most likely they'll try to finish it right after 2020.
63:35.0
Right after 2025 election.
63:37.0
Kasi I think malabo na each charter change mo before midterms.
63:40.0
Parang I'm just having a lot of doubts about that.
63:43.0
So for me, the opposition should have a little bit of a seat at the table
63:48.0
should the whole charter change move into the final gear or final chapter
63:53.0
early after elections next year habang hindi pa lame duck si BBM.
63:57.0
And then, of course, I mean, again, I agree na dapat grassroots, LGU level ang opposition.
64:02.0
They have to build it from down to up.
64:03.0
But we know, both of us know something.
64:04.0
Mas mahirap pa yung LGU kaysa national, right?
64:07.0
Laglito lapit, natalo sa Pampanga, effortless naging senador.
64:11.0
And doon sa Pulse Asia survey which we correctly pointed out, in fairness,
64:15.0
when we discussed the other surveys, in fairness, mukhang Bama Kino has a pretty decent chance.
64:20.0
Mukhang Kiko also has a pretty decent chance.
64:23.0
And then these super far away two or three others.
64:25.0
They're still within top 18, 20, top 15 even.
64:29.0
And then, of course, Lenny.
64:30.0
I don't know about Lenny.
64:31.0
I doubt she's gonna run for Senate.
64:32.0
But how do you look?
64:33.0
Do you think you should aim for at least one or two Senate seats?
64:35.0
Para lang medyo tatlo yung totoong opposition next year?
64:41.0
Una, Big R, ay kailangan nilawi ng opposition ay ano ba sila?
64:48.0
Ano bang gusto nila?
64:49.0
Dahil parang there's such a huge vacuum eh sa opposition.
64:55.0
At least in traditional opposition.
64:57.0
At politics hates a vacuum eh.
65:01.0
Kaya nung lumalabas ngayon, sabi nga ni Janice Pondok,
65:04.0
parang nagmumukha pang opposition yung mga Cavaliers.
65:08.0
Yung mga ex-military.
65:10.0
Then on different issues, electoral fraud, corruption, etc.
65:14.0
Parang sila yung nagpifil ng vacuum.
65:16.0
Dahil yung traditional opposition, napaka-tahimik.
65:20.0
So, kailangan nilawit muna ng opposition.
65:25.0
Ano bang plano nila?
65:26.0
Ikalawa, nitong past one and a half years,
65:29.0
parang may unofficial rapprochement
65:32.0
between those traditional opposition and the government.
65:37.0
Hindi sila masyadong nagbabakpakan.
65:40.0
Hindi sila masyadong nagbabalatan.
65:42.0
Mas yung new opposition ng mga Duterte ang medyo nagsasharpen.
65:46.0
Lalo rin nila mga vloggers, mga takets.
65:49.0
Kaya yun yung ikalawa.
65:51.0
Ito bang rapprochement na ito ay maapektuhan nitong tsatsak?
65:56.0
Dahil ngayon ay parang guns blazing.
65:58.0
Yung mga opposition.
65:60.0
Si Christian Monzod magpapind ng case sa Supreme Court.
66:04.0
Si Edsel nagpapainvestiga.
66:09.0
So, pwede rin may breath of fresh air ang opposition.
66:12.0
At makatulong yan doon sa kanilang introspection.
66:20.0
Kung ano naman talaga sila.
66:21.0
Soul-searching almost.
66:23.0
At pahuli, alam ko may...
66:25.0
They have to get their act together.
66:27.0
Limbawa, alam ko may mga talks about Big Tenth.
66:31.0
Right, right, right.
66:33.0
Kung hindi mabubuhi ang Big Tenth na yan, malaking problema sa opposition.
66:37.0
Paano mahihirapan sila kung tatakbo sila individually?
66:42.0
Nung mga nakaraang mga buwan, some in the opposition ang tingin,
66:46.0
para magkaroon sila ng fighting chance, huwag silang pumorma as opposition.
66:51.0
Mas pumorma sila as individuals.
66:53.0
Hindi ko alam kung nagbago yan.
66:56.0
Kung hindi ko balance sheet, mas okay na mag-unite sila under one Big Tenth with a clear political narrative.
67:03.0
With a clear political narrative.
67:05.0
Kahit hindi sila kasing critical sa gobyerno ng Bongbong.
67:12.0
Pwede kang mag-create ng political narrative based on that.
67:16.0
Kahit hindi kayo sharpest line, direction of the main blow, opposition.
67:24.0
If they can't communicate, paano yung relasyon nila with the other opposition, with the new opposition.
67:30.0
Lalo na halimbawa sa usapin ng ChaCha, na parehas silang bumabanan.
67:34.0
Parehas silang may laban na hatahangin.
67:36.0
May overlap na, may overlap.
67:38.0
Imagine, sabi ni D. Gong sa press conference niya.
67:41.0
Bakit papatan niyo ang Constitution? Maganda naman yan.
67:46.0
Sabi niya, maganda naman yan. No?
67:48.0
May nag-talungan na reporter. Sabi niya.
67:51.0
Diba balak niyong pagbuhin ito sa konyen niyo?
67:53.0
Wala talagang mga to.
67:55.1
Ang ibig sabihin,
67:59.1
pareha sila ng banat,
68:00.7
pareha sila na magiging
68:02.7
vis-a-vis the government
68:04.9
difference in intensity.
68:07.9
So how will they relate
68:12.5
classic opposition
68:13.9
and the new opposition.
68:16.5
magandang panoorin din.
68:21.3
Maraming salamat.
68:22.2
Thank you so much.
68:24.8
your being in Paris
68:27.8
your political analysis,
68:32.9
you're very inspired.
68:34.5
I hope hindi kita pinagod masyado.
68:36.1
But we covered a lot.
68:37.5
Thank you so much, Ronald.
68:38.4
Looking forward to more discussions
68:39.8
once you're back.
68:42.2
And thank you so much
68:43.2
Secretary Ronald Llamas
68:45.1
for sharing your voice.
68:47.5
marami tayong mga mind-blending dito.
68:49.6
And it's interesting.
68:50.5
We keep on testing
68:52.2
So I think so far,
68:55.3
in terms of hypothesis
68:57.5
And you're right.
68:58.0
There's still many imponderables
69:00.2
potential curveballs
69:04.2
exciting times for analysts
69:11.1
Baka marami tayong kakaway.
69:17.6
Enjoy your evening there.
69:20.4
talk to you soon.
69:21.4
Ayoko na nga away.
69:22.2
Para ma-invite tayo
69:33.8
Thank you very much
69:34.7
sa lahat ng mga kameta natin
69:37.1
I hope na-appreciate nyo
69:39.9
Nag-marathons tayo
69:47.1
Boom, boom, boom, boom.
69:48.0
Straight lang lahat
69:49.5
So makikita nyo talaga
69:54.0
itong mga topic na ito.
69:55.4
bara-barang analysis.
69:58.9
Hindi kami derivative, right?
70:01.7
We're always the first
70:03.3
about certain issues.
70:05.4
certain prognostications.
70:08.1
and as much as possible
70:09.1
humbly try to also
70:10.1
correct ourselves
70:13.4
nag-over-read tayo
70:14.2
or under-read tayo.
70:15.1
And that's how you
70:15.6
improve your analysis.
70:16.5
That's how you become relevant.
70:18.0
thank you very much
70:18.6
sa mga ka-YouTubers natin,
70:20.7
ka-TikTokers natin.
70:22.5
I appreciate this.
70:26.1
sa lahat ng support
70:28.0
ang discussion na ito.
70:28.7
And have a lovely
70:31.2
Thank you very much
70:32.0
and talk to you soon.
