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00:00.7
Ito na, ito na! Bonjour, bonjour! Como sa va?
00:03.5
Continue natin yung discussion ni Eva Legu
00:07.5
Doon sa episode 1
00:09.8
Doon sa episode 1, discuss natin Ronald yung ano ha
00:14.4
Yung what's happening, how much of a ceasefire is this?
00:18.9
Is this ceasefire gonna hold?
00:20.5
Or is this even a ceasefire at all?
00:22.2
Or is this all signaling and noise?
00:24.0
But sabi ko nga, mahirap na to substantiate any particular argument on that
00:31.8
So each of us gave our conjectures, educated conjectures
00:34.6
If we don't take into consideration two important variables
00:37.7
Unayin muna natin yung ICC
00:39.5
Kasi Ronald, probably you have more information than me
00:41.9
I don't know because you're in Europe
00:42.9
I don't know anong mga marites sayo
00:44.3
Is it possible that the ICC may push for warrants of arrest
00:48.8
Early this year or first half of this year
00:53.3
And then without any coordination with the Philippine government
00:56.1
Because ito yung argument ko, Ronald
00:57.6
If ikaw si BBM, siguro mag-denegotiate ka with ICC
01:01.8
Alam naman na ang ICC, it's a judicial body but it's not politically naive
01:04.8
It's not geopolitically naive, right?
01:06.3
It takes many things into consideration
01:07.7
That explains why probably halos purong lahat ng mga nahuli nila so far
01:12.0
Hindi European except, I don't know, some bunch of Yugoslavian people
01:16.0
And bakit siguro ang bilis nila nag-react doon sa Ukraine war
01:19.8
And in-issue ng warrants of arrest kagat si Putin
01:22.0
And tagal-tagal doon sa mga ibang kaso sa Middle East
01:24.5
And of course Philippines right now
01:26.1
So is it possible that behind the scenes
01:29.5
ICC and BBM are talking and saying
01:31.8
Okay, ito yung gawin mong timing
01:33.6
And then kung ganito yung timing
01:35.9
Siguro mas mag-cooperate kami sa inyo in terms of enforcement
01:39.1
Kasi it's one thing for ICC to issue the warrants of arrest
01:41.5
Or something along those lines
01:43.7
It's another thing to make sure na maging cooperative yung Philippine government
01:47.9
Or do you think that ICC is just gonna push it
01:52.0
And taking advantage of whatever situation is happening in the Philippines
01:55.7
Parang okay, maganda, mag-away kayo yung UNITEAM
01:57.9
Pinagbigyan tayo ng konti
01:59.2
Pero even if hindi mag-cooperate itong mga BBM na ito
02:01.2
Ipupush na namin ito
02:02.3
In short, are they gonna have a purely judicial approach
02:05.3
Or there's gonna be some political negotiations behind the scenes, etc.
02:09.4
And how do you think, what do you think is BBM's preference?
02:12.6
What would he push for if behind the scenes there's such negotiations?
02:16.7
Well, tama naman yung sabi mo, Big R
02:18.9
Hindi naman purely
02:22.0
Judicial lang yung considerations ng ICC
02:24.4
May mga political perspectives din naman yan
02:27.8
Ang problema lang, Big R
02:30.8
Ay yung mga tao kasi sa ICC, hindi naman mga permanent yan eh
02:36.0
Yung prosecutor nagbabago, yung mga judges nagbabago
02:38.7
May mga terms yan
02:39.7
At galing yan sa iba't ibang mga bansa eh
02:42.5
So wala akong nakikita na permanent fulcrum
02:45.4
Halimbawa sa United Nations
02:46.7
Na pag may gulo, may nagbabackdoor
02:51.2
Sa ICC, may nagbabago, may naguusap
02:52.0
Sa ICC, wala akong nakikita ng gano'n
02:53.9
Kaya kahit yung mga tao dyan may mga political perspectives
02:58.1
Walang gagawa ng gano'ng klaseng negosasyon na sinasabi mo
03:01.1
Between the Philippine government at sila
03:04.4
Ikalawa, may sariling time frame ang ICC eh
03:09.0
Baka dun yung pwede nating sukatin
03:12.0
Na kailan ba most probably lalabas yung international warrant
03:16.8
Usually, historically
03:18.9
Yung mga, yung proseso na yan
03:21.1
Ay mga seven years or so
03:22.0
Seven to eight years
03:22.9
Yung mga yung proseso na yan
03:24.7
At mukhang tayo ngayon
03:26.9
At this point, nandun na tayo sa seven years
03:31.1
Kaya more or less, inaasahan na
03:33.8
Based on their time frame
03:35.7
Based on their, sabi nga yung iba
03:37.6
Napakabagal na proseso
03:39.3
Mukhang hahampas yan
03:41.0
Sooner than later
03:48.7
Ay mahalaga kasi itong kaso
03:54.0
Dahil ito yung first Asian
03:58.3
Usually kasi yan, Africans
04:01.4
Former Yugoslavia
04:04.4
Yung mga nakakasuhan
04:06.1
Ito yung first time na may Asian
04:07.9
Kaya hindi rin sila pwedeng mag-dili-dali dito
04:12.0
Dahil marami yung mga bumabalat sa kanila
04:15.7
Na kami lang ba laging
04:18.0
Laging kinakasuhan, Afrika?
04:20.3
Kami lang bang Serbians
04:22.4
Ang laging kinakasuhan?
04:24.9
Kaya nakatingin sa kanila
04:28.6
May nagpaplano na mag-file sa ICC
04:38.3
Nitong Israeli-Gaza
04:42.1
Kailangan na nilang i-resolve
04:44.8
Sooner than later
04:46.1
Itong kaso ni Digong
04:50.3
Kaya based on that
04:51.9
Hindi naman sila pwedeng pressuring
04:56.2
Duda ako kung may gano'ng klasing
04:59.9
Between the ICC and the government
05:02.3
Na mag-usap sa gano'ng level
05:03.8
Pero within their time frame
05:05.6
Mukhang halos exacto
05:08.2
Na yung preliminary investigation
05:12.8
International warrant
05:14.3
Ay napapanahon na
05:17.6
Inamin ni former human rights officer
05:20.3
Human rights lawyer
05:22.0
Na bisita rito ng ICC
05:28.2
Ay within that time frame
05:32.7
Hindi ba? Late November?
05:34.4
December pa, okay
05:35.5
Pero late November
05:39.9
Logistically for them to come in
05:41.3
They're not gonna kick out
05:42.1
Something like that
05:43.0
Pero yung sinasabi mo
05:48.8
Tama naman yung sinabi ni
05:51.8
Nung bumiyahin rito yung ICC
05:53.7
Hindi naman sila nakipag-meeting
05:55.2
At least hindi pa
05:58.9
I-maintain ng gobyerno
06:00.3
Yung kanilang independence
06:02.1
Na hindi naman sila
06:04.1
More like plausible
06:05.1
Hindi naman sila stooge
06:09.4
International warrant
06:14.7
Hindi naman pwedeng
06:16.3
Hindi samahan yan
06:18.9
Hindi naman pwedeng
06:19.6
Hindi yan suportahan
06:25.4
Dahil pag may nangyari
06:29.2
Eh sirang-sira tayo
06:31.2
Baka nga pagbintangan pa tayo
06:33.8
Tayo ay kakutsaba
06:35.5
At wala pang nangyaring ganyan
06:37.3
Wala pang nangyaring ganyan
06:39.1
Na yung nag-implement
06:46.1
Philippine government
06:47.0
Kung may mag-implement
06:56.6
Tapos kung i-implement yan
07:00.4
Ang nangyari dito
07:05.1
Isang zero-sum guy
07:08.9
Kung mawala si Digong
07:14.3
Yung buong relihiyon niya
07:17.9
So medyo magulo yan
07:19.6
Kung hindi tutulungan
07:22.0
Yung mag-i-implement
07:29.4
My argument on the ICC
07:33.4
They called on Russia
07:34.5
To have a ceasefire
07:35.5
I mean marami silang ginawa
07:36.6
Tapos inetse puwera lang sila
07:38.5
I completely agree
07:39.9
That there's a lot of pressure
07:42.2
To show na hindi lang sila
07:44.3
Sub-Saharan African
07:47.8
But at the same time
07:50.4
Magiging mukhang tanga
07:52.7
Issue silang warrant of arrest
07:54.2
Totally no coordination
07:55.4
With the Marcos administration
07:56.6
Kasi ignore lang sila
07:57.5
Ng Marcos administration
07:58.5
Parang that's even worse
08:03.3
Split their difference
08:05.3
A little bit plausible
08:07.3
A little bit coordination
08:11.9
Magre-release na kami
08:13.6
I doubt that there won't be
08:15.1
A little bit of that
08:17.4
Let's say low-range
08:20.0
Hindi full coordination
08:25.4
Ang usapin lang naman dito
08:27.3
Ay international warrant
08:28.7
At implementation
08:30.1
Ng international warrant
08:32.5
So at the minimum
08:33.4
Kahit hindi na tayo
08:35.1
The government has to
08:37.7
Kung may decision na yung gobyerno
08:39.1
Na papasukin sila
08:40.8
Medyo nakakatawa yung sabi
08:49.6
Medyo mahirap yun
08:50.9
Dahil yung Bureau of Immigration
08:52.3
Ang Department of Justice
08:54.6
So I'm sure they will know
08:57.6
Baka illegal recruiter
09:00.7
Saka pa sila pumasok
09:02.3
Medyo abutay ako tayo
09:04.0
Dahil nakapasok na
09:09.3
Kahit sinasabi ng DOJ
09:11.0
Na hindi namin alam
09:12.2
Kung sila ay pumasok o hindi
09:16.2
Ang Bureau of Immigration
09:19.6
So something is happening
09:20.7
Beyond dun sa lumalabas
09:25.5
Mas naglilino ko dun sa
09:28.9
Natapos na yung issue sa ICC
09:33.3
At masyadong mahirap na
09:36.8
Yan ay balikan uli
09:38.7
Yung position early this year
09:40.6
Na totally sarado
09:42.1
Hindi pa papasok yan
09:44.4
Baka mahirap na yung
09:46.5
Yung pingpong na dilidali
09:48.0
Mahirap nang panyon eh
09:49.6
Masisira na yung gobyerno
09:52.2
Gustong gusto pa naman
09:54.8
Sa international community
10:00.7
Yung international law
10:01.8
Sa usapin ng West Philippine Sea
10:03.3
Sa usapin ng OCLOS
10:05.6
Very very good point
10:09.6
The foreign minister of Germany
10:13.0
Someone who's known as
10:19.3
They're going all in
10:24.2
Democratic values
10:26.5
And a rules-based
10:27.4
International order
10:32.8
Before we close this
10:35.5
And go to the chacha
10:36.4
Which I think is a very
10:37.3
Important episode
10:42.1
Pagdating dito sa ICC
10:45.3
And some of the allies
10:46.2
Telling to Marcos
10:48.0
Pangalan mo Marcos
10:49.4
May kaso ka pa dito
10:55.0
Magpakitang gilas ka
10:56.5
Medyo palayain mo
10:58.4
Medyo mag-cooperate
11:01.0
There's also an aspect
11:11.4
Nasa gitna naman tayo
11:12.7
Ng The Great Game
11:16.5
Hindi ko i-underestimate
11:23.4
Pero in this case
11:27.1
Hanging fruit yan
11:31.5
Kung bakit hindi niya
11:32.3
Kagad pinakawalan
11:53.7
It has less to do
11:60.0
European Parliament
12:04.9
In the past few years
12:08.6
Ang main decision
12:22.3
Mahina naman talaga
12:40.4
Secretary of Justice
12:48.8
Hindi lang niya magawa
12:52.8
Pinakawala na niya
13:03.8
With the pressures
13:04.6
From the superpowers
13:15.3
There's of course
13:17.1
Aspect of Kibo Law
13:19.1
I don't know about
13:25.0
And you're expecting
13:44.6
Sympathetic media
14:06.6
Ang press freedom
14:07.5
Kahit ini-invoke nila
14:11.6
May hihirapan sila
14:35.7
Dahil umalis na tayo
14:36.9
Yung sa extradition
14:39.1
At medyo heavy yung
14:40.5
Medyo malalim yung kaso
14:48.0
Human trafficking
14:58.0
Dahil may independence
14:59.6
Naman yung judiciary
15:01.1
Sa kanilang political system
15:07.7
They will welcome
15:16.3
Siya yung main supporter
15:19.0
Iwe-welcome nila yan
15:21.5
Pero kung magkakaroon sila
15:25.0
They're not even a member
15:27.9
Hindi sila member niyan
15:29.5
At lalo na ngayon
15:31.6
Dinadepensahan nila
15:33.4
Pwede yung makasuhan
15:37.4
Imminent yung decision na yan
15:38.9
I think imminent yung decision
15:40.0
Yung first decision
15:51.1
International warrant
15:55.4
Merong sariling buhay na yan
16:08.0
Kaya seryoso na sila
16:11.7
Thank you so much for that
16:18.4
This is very important
16:19.4
I thought pwede natin squeeze in
16:23.9
At sya maganda itong discussion natin
16:25.5
We didn't talk about the logistics
16:27.2
And the geopolitics
16:28.3
Of ICC decisions also
16:29.7
It doesn't mean that ICC
16:32.4
We're just saying
16:33.1
Hindi rin sila tangad
16:36.2
So I really appreciate
16:37.4
Your intervention at that point
16:38.6
Thank you very much sir
