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00:00.0
Alright, everyone.
00:29.6
I hope you had a blessed weekend with your family and loved ones starting the week with some big developments ngayon itong elections over the weekend kung saan as expected of course nanalo ang ruling party na Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan at of course ito yung Progressive Party nila.
00:51.0
Ito yung partido na much closer dun sa idea ng Taiwanese separate identities.
00:59.6
Para sa mga kritiko naman ito yung partido na that is usually sympathetic at is supposedly more sympathetic dun sa pro-independence sentiments sa Taiwan.
01:12.6
Although of course as we'll discuss later on pagdating naman sa most likely under the incoming Lai administration expect natin that they're going to be very responsible and they're going to have a very balanced approach kung saan i-assert nila yung separate Taiwanese identity.
01:29.6
Hindi sila mag-push for any kind of referendum or de jure declaration of independence which of course could trigger a total war with China.
01:38.9
Now, balikan natin itong issue na ito.
01:40.4
Anong nangyayari sa Taiwan at anong implication na ito para sa Pilipinas.
01:44.4
Many things to catch up on.
01:46.0
Of course, I hope folks napanood nyo yung mga review natin ng GOMBURZA the other day and please if you didn't have a chance to check it, go and check it out on our different platforms.
01:59.6
So, that's it for this episode of GOMBURZA the other day and please if you didn't have a chance to check it out on our different platforms, go and check it out on our different platforms.
02:29.6
So, that's it for this episode of GOMBURZA the other day and please if you didn't have a chance to check it out on our different platforms.
02:30.9
Very close to Taiwan.
02:33.8
Pagdating dun sa mga strategic calculus ng Pilipinas.
02:37.4
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
02:52.7
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
02:52.9
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
02:59.6
So, in short, hindi natin mahiwalay ang nangyayari sa Taiwan dun sa mga nangyayari sa pagitan ng Pilipinas, China, at Amerika.
03:13.2
All of these are very much related and related.
03:29.6
At hindi natin mahiwalay ang nangyayari sa Taiwan dun sa mga nangyayari sa pagitan ng Pilipinas.
03:44.1
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:45.5
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:45.6
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:45.7
So, kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:50.0
So, you can check it out on our other platforms, on our YouTube channels.
03:50.1
So, you can check it out on our other platforms, on our Instagram.
03:50.2
Kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:51.0
Kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan in one way or another, it is going to happen.
03:53.8
OEWs, ang ating mga kababayan.
03:57.5
But whether we like it or not,
04:00.8
that's not, unfortunately,
04:04.3
that's not going to be the only concern.
04:06.6
But, concern din ang
04:08.3
Pilipinas when it comes to things that are
04:10.5
of all Asian countries, perhaps of all countries
04:14.4
in the world. Siguro ang Pilipinas ay nasa
04:24.6
Please pay attention to what's
04:27.8
happening in Taiwan. And then on side note,
04:30.1
not to trivialize the situation, of course
04:31.9
yung mga kababayan natin na hindi pa nakapunta sa
04:33.8
Taiwan. Ang davang kakilala mga Pilipino
04:35.8
na nakapunta sa kung saan
04:38.1
saan, you know, corner
04:39.8
of the world, pero hindi nakapunta sa Taiwan.
04:41.6
Napakalapit sa atin.
04:43.5
Well, I love the culture.
04:51.7
away from Manila to Taipei
04:53.5
and from in the north to
04:55.5
I don't have 20 minutes
04:57.9
with flight. So, napakalapit
05:01.7
geography is geopolitics.
05:04.2
So, pag-usapan lahat natin
05:06.0
mga yan. But before
05:09.2
Philippines, ating national security,
05:12.2
ETCA, Philippine-China-US
05:15.3
go to Taiwan to begin with
05:17.6
para makakatch up tayo ng konti.
05:19.8
Obviously, you're free to check my
05:21.6
writings, including upcoming
05:26.4
implications, ipopost natin yan. Actually, if you just
05:35.6
I will post to you, ipo-forward ko rin
05:38.4
kung may mga bagong articles tayo.
05:40.4
But in the meantime, let me just give you an overview
05:48.0
May mga tiktokers na
05:51.6
Ayan, mga pulvoronik.
05:54.3
Ayan, okay. O yung mga kinatamad,
05:56.2
pulvoronik. Ayan, makinig na lang kayo dito.
05:58.4
Bibigyan natin ng crash course. And of course,
06:00.3
by the way, congratulations
06:02.4
sa ating mga madridistas.
06:04.6
Ayan, nanalo tayo ng
06:08.4
sa Barcelona. Of course, I have
06:10.3
nothing against Barcelona, but, you know,
06:12.6
hard na tayo. Very
06:16.0
madridista po tayo. So, congratulations.
06:21.6
William Lai Administration.
06:36.4
Pag-usapan natin yan. So, eto,
06:37.8
these are the numbers. So,
06:40.5
the race, actually,
06:44.9
few months ago, and I remember
06:47.1
actually, iba sa inyo,
06:49.1
you were able to watch live.
06:51.6
Pa-pasok si William Lai
06:53.7
dun sa event namin sa
06:58.1
on my pages, no? Especially sa
07:01.4
Facebook natin, si William Lai
07:03.5
coming in. I found him very
07:05.4
relaxed. I found him very self-assured and
07:07.4
self-confident. Definitely
07:17.5
just hope for responsible
07:19.2
statesmanship and for continuing
07:21.5
the good legacy of the outgoing
07:23.1
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Because, in
07:25.3
fairness to President Tsai Ing-wen,
07:27.4
I know marami siyang critics inside Taipei.
07:29.8
Marami siyang critics inside Taipei.
07:32.2
But, I think, overall,
07:33.5
she was able to prevent any major
07:35.4
diplomatic taxes with China.
07:37.8
The only major event that happened
07:39.5
during Tsai Ing-wen administration
07:41.0
hindi ito masalanan sa Tsai Ing-wen.
07:43.4
Kasi, alam ko, naman, may kato.
07:45.1
Or, kasalanan, hindi naman, hindi naman, hindi naman, hindi naman, hindi naman.
07:47.4
This was the former
07:49.0
Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi's,
07:53.0
I'm not sure how much that was
07:58.2
Some are saying that
07:59.4
was more sariling sikap
08:05.5
That's what experts call it.
08:21.5
video natin, analysis natin, is actually
08:23.5
in the Taiwan crisis
08:24.4
noong August 2022.
08:27.8
Close to half a million views.
08:29.1
So, I'm glad that there's a lot of interest.
08:31.6
I'm glad that there's a lot of interest
08:33.3
pagdating sa developments
08:39.8
Which, of course, yun na natin na
08:41.5
medyo binash natin ng konti
08:43.0
the other month. Kasi sabi ko,
08:45.6
parang yung mga pinapost ko sa
08:47.3
West Philippines, parang ano.
08:49.0
Anyway, mga pang-usapan yun,
08:51.5
hindi ka natin itong TikTok live
08:57.6
mga ibang followers
09:01.3
finance version of this.
09:03.8
So, if you look at it,
09:08.6
sa Philippines was supposed to look like.
09:14.9
Which was like a two-party system
09:16.5
or dominant two-party system.
09:20.1
For the first time in the very
09:21.4
long time, actually, the third party,
09:29.1
Very, very well. It won close to
09:33.0
equal to 26.46% of the votes.
09:36.2
The Kuomintang Party,
09:37.5
which used to be the dominant party
09:39.3
for almost, what, half a century,
09:41.6
and then still managed to win elections
09:43.3
during democratic elections.
09:44.5
So, actually, I had the chance
09:51.4
They managed to win
09:54.5
4 million and 671,000 votes.
09:58.7
So, that's equal to
10:01.4
So, put together, if you look at the
10:05.3
GoMing, that's more or less
10:06.9
60% of the votes.
10:13.2
that provided the opening
10:16.5
race together with
10:21.4
So, just over 40%, 40.05%,
10:24.5
and close to 6 million votes.
10:27.0
Now, this is lower
10:30.8
votes that Tsai Ing-wen
10:32.8
won in the previous
10:34.9
elections in 2020.
10:36.7
Significant lower, but because it was a
10:42.6
pretty comfortable lead. Because if you look at the lead
10:44.9
between number one and number two, that's
10:46.7
the TPP and the Kuomintang Party,
10:48.8
that's a huge lead.
11:01.5
Now, there were concerns that the race was closing
11:03.6
because, as I said, I remember when in
11:06.1
in Taiwan and listening to
11:09.2
William Lai, he had
11:10.8
the race began to
11:13.2
final result, it was a comfortable
11:17.6
win. But, as I already
11:19.4
mentioned a while ago, if
11:53.0
then they would have been a DPP party.
11:55.5
Right? Even if maybe a party
11:56.8
was able to secure
11:58.6
a significant plurality of the votes
12:00.8
at around 40% or so.
12:03.7
The overall voting turnout
12:04.7
was around 72%, so that's
12:06.9
3% lower than the previous
12:09.9
it's not a published democracy.
12:12.4
So that's quite interesting
12:13.4
if you look at that. Now, dun sa parliamentary
12:16.7
race, if you look at the
12:34.8
by one because the Kuomintang
12:36.5
won 52 seats, but
12:38.4
neither of them have a majority.
12:41.7
the legislature of Taiwan
12:46.2
is still up for grabs
12:50.3
party actually won 8 seats
12:52.2
and if not a second, the independents
12:53.9
have 2 seats. So around 10 seats
12:57.8
who will control.
13:02.1
necessarily 100% sure that
13:04.0
the opposition will control the legislature.
13:06.5
So there's still some slight chance
13:08.1
that the DPP party will hold on
13:10.3
to both the legislature
13:11.4
and the executive order. I'd rather not
13:20.3
Kasi ahoy people want it
13:24.7
who are robbing the DPP party?
13:27.1
I'm not sure they want
13:28.5
to think aboutistolize
13:30.0
the DPP party but
13:33.6
it's the other party
13:35.6
that will hold itself
13:36.7
and I think they should
13:38.0
be the people who
13:40.1
they're not alone
13:47.8
they're political Channel,
13:48.8
then they'll decide
13:49.8
more pro-independence
13:52.5
than the other party, especially
13:56.0
even the DPP is making sure
13:58.0
that they don't openly provoke China
14:05.9
western locations. They look at how
14:11.9
moves towards something more
14:16.4
it looks like none of the threats by China
14:18.2
really work. In fact,
14:22.0
military exercises around Taiwan
14:25.5
after the Nancy Pelosi visit.
14:28.3
Also, there were concerns
14:57.1
back during the Civil War years.
14:59.1
There has been fears that China
15:01.2
will be able to find elections, sabotage
15:09.5
But none of that happened.
15:11.3
None of that actually happened.
15:12.9
What happened eventually was
15:30.7
I have to do this part
15:32.3
because before we go to the broader regional implications,
15:36.6
we have to look at what happened inside Taiwan first.
15:40.5
Okay, so if you look at it,
15:41.5
this is an interesting survey by National Changsha University,
15:44.2
which actually I used to be
15:45.4
based there as a visiting scholar.
15:47.8
So, if you look at this survey,
15:49.5
it's very interesting now as you know of course uh taiwan is technically called republic of china
15:55.5
they consider themselves as the true heir of what sunyatsen
15:59.4
began uh more than 100 years ago and in taiwan
16:07.0
background a lot of them well huge number of them speak mandarin or chinese a lot of them
16:11.8
also speak japanese by the way history which was not as bad as what we had in the case of
16:17.6
the philippines if you look at it if this is a survey and halos
16:25.5
i mean it's vast majority of taiwanese sorry over time more and more taiwanese from 92
16:33.1
all the way to 2023 end of 2023 you if you look at the green uh arrow there you could see
16:41.9
so from just uh around 20 percent of taiwanese now close to 70 percent of taiwanese
16:47.6
consider themselves as primarily taiwanese right so they see themselves as belonging to
16:54.3
a de facto separate nation consider themselves as only chinese has significantly reduced over time
17:03.4
and then those who see themselves as both chinese and taiwanese uh it's also on a steady secular
17:09.5
decline so the taiwanese sense of identity has significantly significantly increased
17:15.8
and that's why actually
17:47.6
Is it the regime that has came to Taiwan and eventually created the foundations of what we call the Interpol of China or is it the regime in Beijing?
17:59.5
Some of them agree that there is one modern China but they don't agree on whom should sovereignty lie.
18:06.8
But the reality is that both Taiwan and China are moving in a much more confrontational direction
18:12.1
because Taiwanese are feeling less and less attached to China and they're feeling more and more de facto independent
18:19.4
although they're not moving yet towards a declaration of independence that no one wants to build China.
18:26.3
At the same time, in China, more...
18:42.1
or New Year speech ni Xi Jinping on Taiwan, he effectively said that all options are still on the table, you know?
18:51.8
That as President Xi Jinping or paramount leader Xi Jinping said, Taiwan and China will surely be unified, right?
19:00.4
Doon sa kanyang New Year's Eve speech.
19:03.2
So Beijing is implying... well, not implying.
19:06.7
They're accusing Taiwan of moving towards de facto independence
19:10.3
and they're accusing them of being...
19:12.1
as in, provocateurs.
19:13.8
But for Taiwanese, not only do they feel more Taiwanese,
19:17.0
but they also feel that they're being more bullied.
19:25.1
To assert the Chinese position, right?
19:32.5
Ang pagsabay nito yung Taiwan, ang pagsabay nito yung Amerika,
19:35.5
at pagsabay nito yung mga ibongkla ng Pilipinas.
19:40.1
kayo nagtitrigger, no?
19:43.3
At kayo nag-othermind the so-called one-china policy.
19:46.3
We are also holding on.
19:49.1
Now, interestingly, if you look at it,
19:52.4
this is very interesting.
19:54.5
So the pressure on Xi Jinping to also be tougher in the...
20:10.1
Even though he doesn't want war, right?
20:14.5
Because he also cannot afford war.
20:16.0
Ayaw nyo naman, it will be devastating also for China.
20:18.3
If you look at the war scenario.
20:20.7
At the same time, sa Taiwan, ayaw nyo nililin na ng giyera, right?
20:25.1
Because alam nyo...
20:40.1
So, we have a deadlock.
21:07.9
So, what do you expect to happen...
21:13.0
weeks and months?
21:18.5
I'm threatening...
21:27.4
I'm doing nothing crazy.
21:29.6
the incoming president also of Taiwan
21:31.3
is going to call...
21:34.2
I'm going to try to maintain relations with Taiwan.
21:36.6
At the same time, my redline is sidelined.
21:38.2
We're not going to undermine...
21:40.1
So, it's a very tricky situation.
21:47.1
But I think, as that
21:49.8
China is going to tighten the rules.
21:52.0
More sanctions on Taiwan.
21:53.9
Especially exports galing dun sa
21:56.1
many areas. So, support the
21:57.4
DPP party to indirectly
21:59.8
support the opposition party, perhaps,
22:02.3
right? Or at least undermine the ruling party.
22:04.9
Hindi ako magtatagal if China
22:06.2
will also push with more military
22:08.0
activities around Taiwan.
22:19.0
Ang tanong dyan is,
22:20.1
what is going to break the deadlock?
22:22.0
And I think that's where everyone is
22:32.2
It's doing something pasaway
22:33.8
and undermining their position. And at the same
22:36.1
time, neither Xi Jinping nor Lai
22:37.9
are in a position to lose face because each of
22:40.1
them are accountable to their domestic
22:41.5
constituencies, who is pushing more
22:43.9
and more for a, well, at least in the case
22:46.0
of China, a more maximalist position.
22:48.7
by some friends and colleagues in Singapore
22:51.9
that shows that actually a lot of middle-class
22:54.1
Chinese want a more aggressive
22:58.0
President Xi is also under pressure
23:00.9
In the case of President Lai,
23:03.9
although the Taiwanese people
23:08.2
reunification. So,
23:10.1
diba, sino mag-adjust?
23:12.9
Diba? Yun ang essential
23:13.7
problema natin. Sino mag-adjust
23:16.0
ngayon? At habang
23:17.5
both sides are unlikely
23:20.1
to adjust, then we're gonna
23:21.9
have to be, we're gonna be in a tricky situation.
23:24.0
Wait lang. Tanong galing ko lang ito.
23:26.3
So, since both sides don't
23:28.0
wanna adjust, we're gonna be in a tricky
23:29.8
situation. I think, sorry doon sa audio
23:31.9
kasi inawakan ko ito. I think that's disrupting
23:33.8
the audio here. Okay. Now, let's
23:35.8
get back to this.
23:40.1
So, what does this
23:42.7
mean for the Philippines? What does this
23:44.6
mean for the Philippines? Diba? So, again,
23:46.6
to summarize, no, sorry, doon sa mga medyo nakat
23:48.7
ng connections and all.
23:50.7
Let me just summarize this once
23:58.0
Parang ginawa natin classroom.
23:59.6
I-summarize natin ulit yan na. Okay.
24:01.3
I-summarize ulit natin yan. So, this is the
24:03.5
dangerous deadlock that we're seeing right now
24:05.5
in the cross-strait relations.
24:07.6
On one hand, nagsaslow down yung economy
24:11.7
hand, since na-consolidate
24:13.9
ng power si paramount leader
24:15.7
President Xi Jinping, Chairman Xi Jinping,
24:19.8
is on him to assert
24:21.5
yung strong position of China na dapat
24:23.7
mag-reunify sila with Taiwan
24:25.5
in the near future while he's still in power.
24:28.1
At the same time, President Xi Jinping
24:29.6
doesn't want conflict because he knows that the conflict will
24:31.7
be devastating for the Chinese economy or
24:33.6
even worse because it's gonna potentially draw in
24:35.7
other countries like United States, Japan,
24:37.4
and also potentially the Philippines, no?
24:40.0
And Taiwan is gonna put a very good fight
24:41.8
and Taiwan is way more well-armed
24:44.2
and way more defensible
24:45.8
than Ukraine when Ukraine was
24:48.0
invaded by Russia, right? Taiwan is an
24:50.0
island, Ukraine was just next to Belarus
24:51.9
and Russia, and Taiwan is a developed
24:53.9
country with a very advanced
24:55.6
military-industrial complex compared to what Ukraine
24:58.0
was when it was first invaded
24:59.2
in February of last year.
25:01.6
At the same time, if you look at the situation in
25:03.9
Taiwan, President Lai,
25:06.1
who belongs to the DPP party, is not
25:08.0
gonna push for something provocative like a referendum
25:10.0
on independence of Taiwan, but at the same time,
25:12.6
he understands that vast majority of Taiwanese,
25:15.6
close to 70%, feel as solely Taiwanese, right?
25:19.7
And that strong sense of Taiwanese-ness, right,
25:22.7
means that talks of reunification with China is a
25:27.2
In fact, during the elections, even the more
25:29.5
pro-Beijing elements had to kind of tone down any
25:32.3
discussions of reunifications.
25:33.7
When former President Ma Ying-jeou of KMT tried to
25:36.0
talk about reunification, et cetera, he was somehow snubbed
25:39.5
by his own people.
25:40.0
So, in that situation, sin na mag-adjust, right?
25:45.0
So, both sides don't want conflict.
25:47.0
Both countries have been grappling with some sort of
25:49.5
economic slowdown and growing disaffection of their
25:52.5
So, both youth in Taiwan and youth in China are facing,
25:55.4
you know, growing unemployment and economic uncertainty.
25:58.4
At the same time, both sides cannot lose face.
26:01.6
And both sides have positions that are increasingly
26:05.1
So, we're in this very, very dangerous deadlock.
26:07.4
And honestly, I don't know what it takes.
26:10.0
For things to move in the right direction.
26:12.5
I think the best thing we can hope is that in the
26:14.8
coming months and all, whatever China does, Taiwan
26:17.7
will continue to take a responsible statesman-like
26:20.4
position, not to say anything provocative, be very
26:22.9
careful about its positioning, and hopefully, also
26:25.2
on the part of China, they're going to be a responsible
26:26.8
great power and realize that they cannot bludgeon Taiwan
26:31.1
And the strength of this Taiwanese identity is just
26:33.7
too strong for any Taiwanese leader, even from a
26:36.5
KMT party, to talk about unity at this point in time,
26:38.9
reunification at this point in time.
26:40.4
So, it's about keeping things on an even keel, and
26:43.0
then, siguro, slowly rebuilding yung mga freight cross-straits
26:47.1
communication channels, which were severed around eight
26:49.9
years ago when Tsai Ing-wen first won.
26:52.4
So, we really need strong statements on both sides, just
26:55.4
when there's pressure on both Lai and Xi Jinping to stay
26:58.8
But gladly, both are also playing relatively weaker cards
27:02.7
because of the economic problems at home.
27:04.5
And in case of Lai, also divided government that he may
27:07.0
potentially face if he doesn't build a major coalition.
27:10.0
So, ito po yung situation ngayon, right?
27:13.5
When it comes to Taiwan-China relations and the
27:17.8
implications for the region.
27:18.9
Now, we can have a whole conversation about the U.S.
27:21.9
aspect, but let me first talk about the Philippines, right?
27:25.7
Pag-usapan natin ng Pilipinas, because pag tinignan mo
27:28.7
ang Pilipinas, ang laki ng stake natin sa nangyayari
27:32.0
ngayon sa Taipei, right?
27:35.0
We have a very big stake in what's happening in Taipei
27:38.7
Now, because, if you look at the situation in Taipei.
27:43.7
Wait lang, na-disconnect pa tayo?
27:46.7
Ah, internet yata is.
27:50.1
Sayang naman lahat ng sinabi natin dito.
27:53.5
Sorry guys, mukhang na-disconnect yata ako dito, ah.
28:02.2
Pinaghirapan natin ito.
28:06.1
Hindi ko alam may internet problem.
28:08.7
Hindi yata kaya ng multiple platforms
28:21.2
Yeah, inayos ko na yung audio
28:22.7
yung tinanggal ko na dito.
28:23.8
One second, sorry, ah.
28:29.1
Bakit na-disconnect to?
28:47.8
Kailangan ko lang i-record yung part na yun, guys.
28:49.5
Kasi may mga maps tayo, no.
28:50.9
Sayang naman kung hindi ko ilalabas.
28:52.5
Kaya pasensya na ako.
28:53.3
Kasi para repost ko rin sa inyo later on afterwards.
29:01.7
Apologies for that.
29:08.7
Ito yung part na mahalaga kasi.
29:38.7
See, mahala, mahala, mahala.
29:51.7
Ay, pinipilit ko lahat ng platforms lang.
29:53.6
Hindi pala kaya ng internet.
29:55.3
Up to three lang yata.
29:56.3
Or dalawa lang kaya.
30:00.8
Okay, go na tayo.
30:14.7
Mukhang, guys, na-disconnect tayo kanina.
30:16.4
Ulitin natin itong part na ito
30:17.4
kasi importante yung gumagamit tayo ng mga
30:19.3
gumagamit tayo ng mga
30:21.5
graphs and tables and all of that.
30:23.1
So, just to summarize
30:24.7
what I was talking about a while ago.
30:27.9
Ang sinasabi natin is that
30:28.9
we have a dangerous deadlock right now
30:31.0
in the cross-trace relations
30:33.4
because both President Xi Jinping
30:35.0
and also President Lai
30:38.3
both of them cannot lose face.
30:40.8
When you look at the case of China
30:42.8
it has a slowing down economy
30:44.8
and now that Xi Jinping has
30:47.2
essentially fully consolidated power
30:49.8
he's gonna take a blame.
30:51.3
He's gonna be blamed for anything
30:52.4
that doesn't go right.
30:53.6
And more and more Chinese
30:54.5
especially middle-class Chinese
30:55.6
want the country to take
30:56.7
more assertive stance
30:57.7
on the international stage.
30:58.9
At kasama din dyan
30:59.8
base sa mga surveys
31:01.4
at mga pag-aaral na kita natin
31:03.7
yung idea na yung China
31:05.0
has to reunify with Taiwan
31:09.2
Kung tinignan nyo
31:10.3
yung mga speeches
31:11.3
ni President Xi Jinping
31:12.3
throughout the years
31:13.4
he has made it very clear
31:14.3
all options are on the table.
31:16.1
Now having said that
31:17.0
on the other side
31:18.1
with President Lai
31:18.8
he also recognizes
31:19.7
that the vast majority
31:21.2
have a very strong sense
31:24.1
Taiwanese identity.
31:25.4
So the idea of reunification
31:26.9
especially after what happened
31:29.4
very politically palatable.
31:31.1
of course the DPP
31:32.7
having a strong sense
31:34.1
of Taiwanese identity
31:35.7
and critics would even suggest
31:37.8
that they would be
31:38.1
perhaps they want
31:39.3
a full declaration
31:40.5
of independence for Taiwan
31:43.1
they have in mind
31:44.4
President Tsai Ing-wen
31:45.2
outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen
31:47.9
is concerned at this.
31:48.8
That's where you see
31:49.5
responsible statesmanship.
31:51.7
But the good thing is
31:52.8
I think both countries
31:54.3
because they're facing
31:56.2
a lot of domestic discontent
31:57.8
a lot of economic uncertainty
31:59.4
a lot of youth disaffection
32:02.4
and also in Taiwan
32:05.1
in the case of Taiwan
32:10.4
will be controlled
32:12.2
So what's happening here
32:13.7
there's gonna be pressure
32:16.3
some sort of understanding.
32:18.2
Both are not gonna admit
32:20.5
will tighten the screws
32:22.5
and try to impose
32:23.8
sanctions on Taiwan
32:24.5
economic sanctions
32:25.2
do more military exercises
32:28.1
behind the scenes
32:29.1
some conversations
32:29.9
about how to make sure
32:33.4
there'll be a move
32:34.7
towards restoration
32:37.1
communication channels
32:38.1
something that happened
32:40.9
more than 8 years ago.
32:43.4
going to the Philippines
32:44.3
bakit dapat may pakit tayo
32:47.0
Bakit tayo dapat may pakit
32:50.3
if you look at Taipei
32:51.9
disconnect na naman.
32:54.8
naka-on ba yung TV doon?
32:58.0
It keeps on disconnecting.
33:06.1
nagdi-disconnect to.
33:08.1
Ang mayroon tayo,
33:09.2
mga ka-fans kita,
33:38.0
At the last na ito
33:42.2
Hopefully this one will work
34:03.4
Huwag kayong drama
34:06.8
May on kasi na TV doon
34:09.2
Let's go now to the Philippines part
34:12.5
May pakit tayo sa Pilipinas
34:14.8
Pangyayari dyan sa Taiwan
34:18.1
Geography is a big explanation
34:19.8
And geopolitics accordingly
34:21.7
Katulad ng mga vlogs natin before
34:23.9
Pinag-usapan natin na
34:25.9
Whatever happens in Taiwan
34:27.4
Will have direct implications
34:28.4
On the Philippines
34:36.0
It's very very close
34:37.6
Manila is closer to Taipei
34:39.1
Than almost all major
34:42.7
Vietnam is more than
34:44.6
Singapore and Kuala Lumpur
34:47.7
Jakarta is almost
34:52.0
Two or three hours away
34:53.2
So I can go on and on and on
34:54.4
Mas malapit pa sa atin
34:55.9
And definitely mas malapit sa atin
35:01.3
The thing with the Philippines
35:02.7
The seat of power
35:03.7
Is actually here in Luzon
35:05.4
And if you're going to go to
35:06.0
Luzon's proximity to Taiwan
35:07.8
Then the geography
35:11.5
Now let me also give you
35:13.8
Ano implication ito
35:15.6
For Philippine-China relations
35:17.3
And also Philippine-US relations
35:18.9
Pag tinignan mo yung
35:21.3
So ito yung mga ETCA basis
35:22.7
Karamihan yung mga bagong basis
35:25.2
Na binigayin natin
35:26.9
Sa ilalim na ETCA
35:30.0
The Americans will have
35:31.8
Based on the ETCA
35:34.9
Northern parts of the Philippines
35:42.1
And if you look at
35:43.6
It's super close to Taipei
35:45.4
Super close to Taipei
35:49.9
So if you look at
35:57.6
Meron tayong actually
35:59.2
Sobrang close siya
36:03.7
Over the past year or so
36:06.0
Atin yung ating mga
36:06.7
Military facilities
36:09.0
So this is a picture of
36:11.7
Actually a ceremony
36:12.4
We had in Mavulis
36:15.8
This is where you can see
36:17.2
What happens in Taiwan
36:19.8
Has direct implications
36:20.7
For the Philippines
36:22.0
Pag magulo sa Taiwan
36:24.5
Or kung tingin natin
36:26.2
Na pwede magkaroon ng
36:27.5
Giyera over Taiwan
36:30.0
Either Taiwan or China
36:32.8
Are moving towards
36:37.0
Doon sa ating mga
36:43.0
Also the West Philippine Sea
36:44.5
Pag ikaw ang China
36:45.9
Hindi mo siniseparate
36:49.0
Sa West Philippine Sea
36:51.8
Lahat yan kasama sa isang
36:52.9
Theater sa kanila yan
36:54.3
All of these are part of
36:55.2
China's so-called
36:57.0
First Island Chain
37:04.7
Down to South China Sea
37:05.7
West Philippine Sea
37:07.0
Theater yan for China
37:08.9
When ang Pilipinas
37:11.5
Access to America
37:20.1
Pag tinigdan natin
37:25.5
And all the way down
37:27.1
In Bautista Air Base
37:31.4
Kung ikaw ang China
37:32.3
Maging worried ka talaga
37:35.7
Isa sa mga dahilan
37:36.8
Na napaka-agresibo
37:37.9
Ang China sa Pilipinas
37:38.9
Over the past few months
37:40.8
Na na-water cannon tayo
37:43.8
Na tinitreten tayo
37:45.0
Ng military intervention
37:47.6
Ng ating facilities
37:49.0
Second time action
37:49.9
Kasi kung titignan mo
37:53.6
Ang tagal na yan eh
37:58.4
Nag-iingay ng China
38:02.5
At kung titignan mo
38:05.7
2014 pa na-negotiate
38:08.2
Sila nag-iingay ng
38:13.0
Taiwan aspect dyan
38:14.6
Taiwan aspect dyan
38:15.5
Kasi sa aking palagay
38:18.9
Ang gagawin ng Pilipinas
38:21.3
Ang gagawin ni BBM
38:30.8
Pagdating sa Amerika
38:32.1
Ang justification nila dito is
38:33.9
Kung malakas tayo
38:36.4
Yung mga cooperation natin
38:39.0
Yung presence natin
38:42.4
Then magdadalawang isip
38:46.0
Ang tawag po dyan
38:48.7
Kaya nga the Roman saying
38:49.7
If you want peace
38:52.6
Pagkarap mo isang bully
38:55.1
Or hindi ka lalaban
38:55.8
Lalo ka na bubulin
38:57.5
Pero kung alam niya na
38:58.8
Pwede kang lumaban
39:01.6
Pwede kang lumaban
39:04.4
Hurt back sa kanya
39:05.7
Yung tinatawag na
39:08.4
Porcupine strategy
39:11.5
Mas malakas ang China
39:12.3
Pero kung alam nila
39:12.9
There will be a major cost
39:14.2
If ever they invade Taiwan
39:15.4
Hindi nila gagawin yan
39:17.3
That was exactly the problem
39:19.1
Kaya nga yung mga nagsasabi na
39:20.4
Ang Pilipinas or Taiwan
39:21.8
Magiging Ukraine 2.0
39:24.5
Or actually mga sinungaling mga to
39:25.8
At propagandistong mga to
39:30.7
Ukraine had no military alliance
39:33.2
Katulad ng Pilipinas
39:34.1
With any major power
39:36.8
It didn't even have
39:38.0
A de facto alliance
39:39.4
Or kind of a secret
39:42.5
Military cooperation
39:43.4
With any of the major powers
39:44.6
Well, behind the scenes
39:46.6
With the United States
39:47.5
And they're buying
39:49.2
From the United States
39:50.3
And the other big difference
39:51.8
Between Taiwan and Ukraine
39:53.5
Taiwan is actually where
39:54.9
The world's most important
39:56.7
Modern technology
39:60.0
Which is what runs
40:00.8
Everything that we're using
40:05.4
So the United States
40:08.7
Not being invaded
40:09.7
And definitely not being
40:11.1
Conquered by China
40:14.0
Is responsible for what?
40:15.9
More than a third
40:16.5
Of total semiconductors
40:18.1
And more than 90%
40:19.3
Of high-end semiconductors
40:21.3
Taiwan is just so important
40:23.9
The US has an interest
40:25.9
That it will not be invaded
40:31.0
Papasok ang Pilipinas
40:35.2
Military bases tayo
40:36.5
Katulad nung sinasabi kong mga bullies
40:38.1
But also lower down
40:39.9
In Cagayan, Isabela, etc
40:41.2
Ang lapit natin sa Taiwan eh
40:44.7
Or yung tinitawag natin
40:50.6
There's just no scenario
40:57.0
Ang laki ng interest
41:05.2
Either you side with China
41:06.9
With the United States
41:08.0
There's no way around it
41:10.6
The siding with China
41:13.1
The siding with China
41:16.4
Yung alliance natin
41:17.1
With the United States
41:19.7
Neutral country tayo
41:25.0
It was Sweden and Finland
41:27.7
Switzerland or something like that
41:29.7
Mahabang debate yung issue
41:35.6
Nasasabi ng Pilipinas
41:36.5
Ang maging neutral lang kami
41:37.5
Words are not gonna be enough
41:39.6
You're gonna look at actions
41:41.2
And you're gonna look at
41:44.5
Actions are concerned
41:46.0
Ang tinitignan ng China
41:48.9
Binibigyan natin ng
41:55.0
Super north of Philippines
41:56.7
Mavulis for instance
41:58.2
Very north na close to Taiwan
42:01.6
May operational implications
42:02.7
So kung ikaw ang China
42:03.9
Gustong sumugot sa Taipei
42:11.1
Because napakalapit
42:12.4
Ang Ryokyo Islands
42:15.1
Sa north of Taiwan
42:16.0
And then alam din niya
42:17.9
Na katulad ng Japan
42:18.7
Ang isang treaty ally
42:19.8
Ang pwede rin tumulong sa US
42:21.4
By giving access to Americans
42:30.9
China is not gonna wait
42:33.9
Situation whereby
42:34.7
Sobrang dami ng mga
42:37.9
And to the south of Taiwan
42:38.9
So as early as right now
42:42.7
Sobrang aggressive yung China
42:44.4
Diyan sa West Philippines
42:45.8
Gusto nila tayong takutin
42:48.1
Their concern is that
42:51.8
Ang sobrang daming
42:53.8
Ang mga Amerikanos
42:55.8
Malapit sa West Philippine Sea
42:57.1
Pero malapit rin sa Taiwan
43:03.0
That's actually something
43:03.8
Interesting for the Philippines
43:06.5
Ang pwede gawin ng Pilipinas
43:08.7
Again in theory lang yun
43:09.9
Is sasabihin niya
43:13.8
Na maging neutral ako totally
43:15.5
Treaty alliance eh
43:17.0
Allies cannot be neutral
43:18.3
During time of war
43:19.3
Kung may mga namatay
43:20.3
Na Amerikano dyan
43:21.1
Na may giyera sa Taiwan
43:24.6
Hindi mo pwede sabihin yan
43:26.3
So either you're with us
43:29.8
You have to choose
43:34.4
Because US ally ka
43:36.4
Ang pwede sabihin
43:42.8
Siyempre US ally kami
43:45.4
Malakas yung situation namin
43:46.5
Sa West Philippines eh
43:51.3
Kung mag-isa lang
43:55.0
Kaya walang kwenta
43:56.5
Ng mga ibang kadDS
43:58.0
Di diplomacy lang tayo
44:01.0
Kung wala kang leverage
44:01.9
Kung wala kang backup
44:02.8
Kung mag-isa mo lang
44:04.7
Hindi ka sinirespeto yun
44:11.4
Anong nakuha ni digong
44:21.0
Sa Juan Felipe Riff
44:21.8
Lahat yan nangyari
44:22.4
Sa panawin digong
44:24.2
Dahil mahina tayo
44:29.2
Ang Pilipinas ngayon
44:30.6
And ididikit ko ngayon
44:41.0
Deadlock situation
44:41.9
But the part of me
44:44.2
There's a good chance
44:48.7
Kunti mag-stabilize
44:51.1
Taiwan-China relations
44:53.7
Katulad ng sinabi natin
44:59.2
Dahil sa internet connection
45:05.8
Xi Jinping and Lai
45:06.7
Ayon nila ng gera din
45:08.8
May pressure sa kanila
45:10.0
To show toughness
45:12.3
Are also under pressure
45:14.1
Dahil sa economic problems
45:15.9
In the case naman
45:19.9
He'll not control the legislature
45:21.2
And as early as now
45:22.8
A unity government
45:23.9
And he's looking at
45:25.3
Making certain concessions
45:29.7
Yung mga more pro-China
45:33.3
So there's some chance
45:35.4
Behind the scenes
45:36.4
There'll be efforts
45:37.1
At stabilizing the relations
45:40.5
And sa newspapers
45:41.5
As being in China
45:44.9
Sabihin niya malakas
45:46.6
Behind the scenes
45:48.7
Rationality to actually
45:50.7
Have the upper hand
45:52.4
Not necessarily prevail
45:53.2
But have the upper hand
45:55.5
Ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas
45:57.0
Anong gagawin mo ngayon?
45:58.5
Kung ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas
45:59.5
Ang gagawin mo ngayon
46:05.0
Ayon ng China daw
46:07.5
Pero nanalang naman ang DPP
46:10.0
Ang Taiwanese din naman
46:12.3
Mag-realify sa China
46:13.4
But the good thing is
46:15.3
Both China and Taiwan
46:16.3
Ayaw nila nalang gyera
46:17.4
Despite all the rhetoric
46:19.4
Ikaw ang Pilipinas
46:20.4
Ganito ang magiging
46:21.9
Sasabihin mo sa China
46:24.9
Andyan yung aliansa namin
46:27.9
Hindi matatanggal yan
46:28.8
Tsaka hindi naman kami
46:34.6
One-on-one lang tayo
46:37.9
No match ang Pilipinas
46:38.8
Sa China one-on-one
46:39.7
Pero kung may backup tayo
46:40.8
Medyo may konting leverage tayo
46:42.9
Ang pwedeng gawin natin is
46:46.2
Yung sa mga bases
46:47.5
Na pinakonood ng Philippines
46:48.7
Huwag natin bigay ng
46:54.6
Pwede mo gawin yan
46:55.5
On so many levels
46:59.9
Sa ilalim ng ETCA
47:01.1
Actually ang mga Amerikano
47:02.8
Magkakaroon sila ng permiso
47:04.8
Na mag-pre-position
47:06.6
Pre-position ng mga weapon systems
47:08.6
So pwede sila maglagay ng mga malalaking armas
47:12.6
Pag sinasabi kong armas
47:13.6
Hindi lang itong mga tanke
47:15.7
Pwede mga Patriot missile systems
47:17.9
Pwede HIMARS systems
47:18.8
Pwede very very advanced
47:21.3
Ang pwede gawin ng Pilipinas siguro
47:25.4
Sige papayagan pa rin namin yung mga kano
47:27.9
Na maglalagay sila ng mga sundalo dyan
47:29.6
Pero hindi namin papayagan ng mga kano
47:31.7
Na maglalagay sila ng mga sundalo dyan
47:32.8
Naglalagay ng napakalaki ng mga weapon systems
47:34.6
Na pwede gamitin in case of
47:38.7
And at the same time
47:40.8
Ililimit natin yung numbers ng mga kano
47:43.0
Na pwede mag-deploy
47:45.0
Dyan sa mga ETCA bases sa North
47:48.7
Off-limit ang Mavulis
47:50.6
Off-limit yung mga pinaka
47:52.0
Mga Northern Military bases sa Batanes
47:54.1
So you can give a 3-level mini concessions to China
47:58.5
Itong kukunin mo sa China
48:00.0
Sasabihin mo sa China
48:04.1
Alam ko mag-iingay ka
48:07.9
O kasi kung ano ka
48:10.0
Bibigyan namin ng mga Amerikano
48:11.3
Ng malalaking bases sa North
48:12.5
Malapit sa Taiwan
48:13.2
O lagat kayo dyan sa Taiwan
48:15.5
Pwede natin sabihin
48:17.4
Ang gawin mo naman ngayon
48:19.2
Pag na-fortify namin yung
48:21.6
Dyan sa Yung Insyol
48:23.0
O huwag kayong magulo masyado
48:24.9
O huwag kayong masyadong bully-bully dyan
48:27.9
At gagawa kami ng mga facilities dyan
48:31.1
At saka mga ibang
48:33.4
O huwag kayong masyadong gulo
48:34.8
Again on the record
48:35.7
Lahat matapang gano'n
48:36.9
Pero behind the scenes
48:38.0
Pwede mo i-negotiate yan
48:42.8
Paano natin pwede leverage
48:45.2
Bilang isang Pilipino
48:47.0
Ang situation ngayon sa Taiwan
48:49.3
In the interest of the
48:50.7
Philippine national interest
48:52.4
At sa akin palagay
48:56.1
Hindi naman ibig sabihin yan na
48:58.0
We're gonna leave the Taiwanese to themselves
48:59.6
Taiwan will continue to develop
49:01.1
Its deterrence capability
49:02.8
Japan will continue to help Taiwan
49:04.7
In one way or another
49:05.5
US will continue to help them
49:06.9
Pero pagdating sa Pilipinas
49:08.6
We can leverage this also
49:10.5
We have a better situation
49:11.6
In the West Philippine Sea
49:12.5
Or at the very least
49:14.1
Ang pwede natin gawin dito is
49:15.4
I-tone down natin
49:16.4
Intentions ng konti
49:19.4
Kung lahat tayo maximalist
49:23.1
War games ng war games
49:25.9
Bigyan natin ng laking access
49:27.9
Sa south ng Taiwan
49:33.9
Para tagulan na yan
49:35.1
So I think we can be part of
49:37.0
A de-escalation mechanism
49:39.5
Tone things down a little bit
49:40.9
And give diplomacy a chance
49:43.5
That's my point eh
49:44.4
I am for diplomacy
49:46.1
But I'm never for diplomacy
49:47.5
From a position of weakness
49:48.7
Because diplomacy
49:49.6
From a position of weakness
49:51.3
And ang mga siyong nga lang
49:57.0
I am for diplomacy
49:58.6
But from a position of strength
50:03.4
Yun pong hinanap natin dito
50:06.5
Thank you very much
50:10.2
Of the bigger geopolitical picture here
50:13.4
Bilang mga Pilipino
50:14.7
Dato may pakit tayo
50:15.7
Sa nangyayari sa cross-strait relations
50:17.2
Sa pagitan ng Taipei
50:22.4
Nang kinalaman na ito
50:27.9
Nang kinalaman na ito
50:29.2
Pwede natin gawin
50:33.4
Diyan sa West Philippine Sea
50:36.1
Ay related to each other
50:42.0
Mag-integrated tayo
50:47.6
Truly independent
50:49.9
Pero yung ibig sabihin na
50:51.2
Syusunga-syunga ka
50:52.0
You have to think for your own
50:53.2
National interest
50:54.0
And you have to contribute
50:58.2
So I am for diplomacy
51:00.0
I am for de-escalation
51:02.1
Philippine nationals
51:05.8
In dealing with this
51:07.0
So yun ang sinasabi ko
51:08.8
Yun ang wala dun sa
51:09.8
Sa mga ibang makapili
51:13.1
Kasi hindi nila alam
51:15.7
Itong mga malilitang bagay
51:16.9
Technicalities yan eh
51:18.2
Parang sa koche yan
51:20.3
Yung mga nananda ng YouTube
51:21.7
Alam nila yung koche
51:23.5
Yung mga basic stats
51:24.5
Pero kung expert ka
51:26.1
You will see certain
51:27.8
Na hindi mo mahanap
51:28.6
Sa YouTube University
51:31.3
There are many little nuances
51:33.9
Diplomacy versus war
51:35.6
Ang mga nagsasabi lang yan
51:37.4
Yung mga walang alam
51:41.6
Diplomacy under what conditions
51:43.8
Diplomacy with what strategy
51:46.0
Diplomacy with what mindset
51:48.5
So I am 100% for diplomacy
51:50.5
But for smart diplomacy
51:52.9
And for diplomacy
51:55.2
The national interest
51:56.7
Of the Filipino people
51:58.8
Maraming salamat mga kameta
51:59.9
I hope you enjoyed
52:03.2
Now down the road
52:04.9
We're hoping to do more
52:08.3
Or something like that
52:08.9
We'll try to do analysis
52:11.5
All of these things to you
52:15.6
Para mas ma-appreciate
52:17.8
Ngayon conceptual
52:22.2
Conflicts and issues
52:24.2
Domestic politics
52:25.7
International politics
52:29.0
National interest
52:29.8
I look at diplomacy
52:30.9
I look at psychology
52:33.4
Different variables
52:34.2
And how they interact
52:35.0
This is next level
52:37.4
That's how you do
52:38.3
Proper geopolitical analysis
52:39.6
Thank you very much
52:42.2
And talk to you soon
52:47.2
Thank you very much
52:52.2
Dun sa mga technical problems
52:53.4
This lesson learned
52:58.1
Habang inayos pa namin
53:00.2
And talk to you soon
