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00:01.0
Bosing Ronald Llamas
00:04.3
Let's talk about the issue
00:05.3
Of charter change
00:06.7
Actually I just had a piece
00:08.2
Come out in Journal of Democracy
00:10.4
Yung sila Francis
00:12.2
Where I argue that
00:13.7
Actually kung titignan mo si BBM
00:15.2
Literally ito yung sinabi ko
00:19.2
When Ferdinand Marquez Jr.
00:20.9
The namesake son of the late dictator
00:22.2
Won an emphatic victory
00:23.4
In the 2022 elections
00:24.8
Many feared that he would follow
00:26.1
In the footsteps of his late father
00:29.1
He would build on the authoritarian
00:31.0
Of his immediate predecessor
00:34.1
Who oversaw widespread
00:35.0
Human rights violations
00:36.6
Throughout his six years
00:39.3
In an earlier journal article
00:40.9
That he could turn out
00:42.4
The buner career underachiever
00:44.2
But also an insidious threat
00:45.7
To Philippine democracy
00:47.9
And to the surprise of many
00:49.3
Marco Jr. has emerged
00:51.5
Quote-unquote reformer
00:52.8
As well as a tough defender
00:54.6
Of the Philippine sovereign rights
00:55.7
In the South China Sea
00:56.6
But I had a lot of caveat
00:59.0
My biggest caveat was that
01:00.4
Okay he did good good good
01:03.7
On West Philippine Sea
01:04.7
But where I'm a little bit worried about
01:06.9
Is what I said towards the end
01:09.5
I'm still sticking with
01:10.6
My initial argument
01:11.8
Marco Jr. may favor
01:15.0
Parliamentary system
01:18.2
After the six year term
01:19.4
Though the namesake son
01:21.7
Of the former dictator
01:23.9
As a potential threat
01:25.0
To the Philippine democracy
01:26.4
The existing constitutional order
01:29.0
Surreptitious manner
01:30.2
But also to the Dutertes
01:32.3
So now let's talk about this
01:34.7
This is where I'm very
01:38.0
The Dutertes go gently
01:40.0
Into the political oblivion
01:41.6
It seems doubtful
01:43.6
This is where I went
01:44.9
The Ronald Llamas way
01:46.1
So you see what I did there
01:47.4
Parang point ko is
01:48.2
So far in fairness
01:49.7
Kay BBM not too bad
01:51.1
But if he pushes for
01:57.0
Constitution change
01:59.0
That doesn't sound
01:59.5
Very reassuring right
02:00.6
And it might make it look like
02:02.0
All these two years of
02:03.1
Nice reform whatever
02:04.9
Was just to set it up
02:06.5
For something else
02:07.7
Us we were all being
02:09.2
So focused on the
02:12.0
We're forgetting that
02:13.2
Behind the scenes
02:13.8
Maybe they're pushing
02:14.9
What is your read
02:15.7
On this Chacha thing
02:16.9
Do you think there's a good chance
02:19.3
May pull off a Chacha
02:21.9
That he has a good reason
02:23.4
Because my sense is
02:24.4
A parliamentary system
02:25.8
Would be perfect for him
02:27.7
Martin Romaldes approval
02:30.5
Or something like that
02:32.4
When Arroyo was speaker
02:34.3
Itatapat mo kay Sarah
02:38.7
So maybe a parliamentary system
02:40.4
Would be best way
02:41.2
For him to engineer
02:41.9
A happy succession
02:44.5
As a head of state
02:45.4
If we have a kind of
02:46.9
An old Turkish system
02:48.1
Or Italian system
02:50.1
There's a president
02:52.8
Still head of state
02:53.8
So meron ka pa rin
02:54.6
Sovereign immunity
02:55.5
You get what I'm saying
02:56.7
What is your read
03:05.0
Kailangan natin tignan
03:05.9
From two vantage points
03:10.8
Yung pagtingin talaga
03:14.9
Mga constitutional changes
03:16.7
Dahil ang constitution
03:19.2
Be a living document
03:25.0
Yun naman ang nature
03:26.1
It's a social pocket
03:28.8
Ang main argument
03:34.1
Protect the minority
03:37.1
Yung mga may hinang
03:38.8
Yun na nangailangan
03:40.4
At dyan pumapasok
03:47.3
To another system
03:48.7
Ay importante rin
03:49.8
Because at particular
03:57.4
Sinasabi natin yan
03:58.8
Ibang usapin yung
04:00.0
Paano muna gagawin yan
04:05.4
A shift from an old one
04:08.5
Are the requirements
04:13.3
Sangayon ako sa federal system
04:15.6
You don't federate
04:19.0
You will be federating
04:27.3
Iyon yung mangyayari
04:28.8
Ang parliamentary system
04:31.3
Naiiwasan yung mga
04:38.1
Nangyayari sa isang
04:39.1
Presidential system
04:40.4
If you're Bangladesh
04:42.1
I mean I can give you
04:42.8
Many parliamentary systems
04:45.2
I mean just look at Bangladesh
04:48.8
Took over the system
04:53.2
Dahil political parties
05:03.8
Not personalities
05:05.9
Yun yung mangyayari
05:08.2
There are parliamentary systems
05:10.2
And there are parliamentary systems
05:15.1
Nung nagsalita ako sa Senate
05:16.5
Yung mga senators
05:17.9
Are talking about
05:21.3
Yan na naman tayo
05:24.7
What German model
05:26.2
Are you talking about
05:27.8
Iba yung nangyari sa Germany
05:29.6
Iba yung kanilang kasaysayan
05:31.5
Iba yung kanilang political dynamics
05:33.5
At iba yung kanilang system
05:35.8
Yung kanilang parliamentary system
05:38.9
Iba yan sa ibang parliamentary system
05:41.0
Hindi siya pwedeng model
05:44.3
Lagi natin pinag-uusapan
05:46.3
Yung gusto ni Digong
05:47.3
Na mag-shift to a federal system
05:49.4
Tinanong siya kung ano modelo
05:51.6
The French system
05:53.3
Which is not federal
05:57.8
Kung ano ba talaga
06:01.8
Maliban dun sa mga
06:05.3
Ng charter change
06:11.0
Yung political objectives
06:13.9
Ng charter change
06:21.6
Hindi lang confusion
06:23.2
Hindi lamang depression
06:28.4
Malinaw naman last year
06:31.9
For charter change
06:32.9
Through a constitutional convention
06:36.7
Dahil mismo ang presidente
06:41.3
At hindi siya priority
06:48.2
Ay people's initiative
06:50.2
Which is suspicious
06:52.9
Isn't it kind of suspicious?
06:54.6
Don't you think there's a chance
06:56.4
I mean this is the
06:58.0
Parang nire-railroad nila
06:59.5
So let us go to the
07:06.0
Have been having R&R
07:07.2
And always our line is
07:08.5
The realignment is
07:13.8
We'll discuss even later on
07:16.3
Well not necessarily
07:19.4
But we can talk about that
07:22.1
You have a situation
07:23.0
Whereby Edsel Lagman
07:24.2
The head of the Liberal Party
07:32.4
This people initiative
07:34.2
Serious allegations
07:35.7
This is not looking like
07:37.0
A people's initiative
07:39.7
Going to certain ways
07:44.3
You know what I'm saying?
07:45.4
So how do you see
07:53.9
Insidious strategy
07:57.6
The luxury of time eh
07:59.9
Nilang mabilisin yan eh
08:01.1
Three stages yan eh
08:03.2
Yung people's initiative itself
08:07.3
Ng all congressional districts
08:08.7
At twelve percent
08:11.3
Voting population
08:13.3
Which is less than
08:14.8
Less than eight million yan
08:28.4
Yung people's initiative
08:34.7
Wala implementing rules
08:36.7
Walang implementing rules
08:39.4
Implementing rules
08:44.4
Supreme court ruling on it
08:45.7
Last time we checked
08:56.9
Yung grupong na reject
08:59.2
Eh sila ngayon yung active ngayon
09:02.1
Sila yung humaharap dito sa
09:07.0
Sila yung ngayon yung
09:08.2
Ang panood mo pala yan
09:10.2
History repeating itself
09:11.7
Dapat kumuha naman sila ng iba
09:13.5
Wala ba silang ibang makuha
09:17.9
Hindi tainted nung rejection
09:20.3
Nung isang araw kasi
09:21.7
Pro chacha si Robin
09:23.4
Ngayon anti chacha na siya
09:27.5
Dahil narito sa bilihan
09:30.8
Dito sa mga signatures
09:34.1
The plot thickens
09:35.7
At it's not going very well
09:38.2
It's not going very well
09:40.3
So yun yung unang stage
09:41.6
Yung people's initiative
09:42.5
Na maraming problema
09:46.3
Congress and Senate
09:52.9
Dahil nga may blessing na ni BBM
09:54.7
Hindi na pumukha kontra
09:56.9
The Senate President
09:59.3
Do they have two-thirds?
10:01.8
Do they have two-thirds of the votes?
10:06.9
Kung meron silang two-thirds
10:09.3
Yun yung second stage
10:11.0
Yung plebiscite itself
10:13.4
Kailangan mangyari soon
10:16.1
Yun yung problema dito
10:17.9
Numabalabas yung mga problema
10:27.1
Kaya lumalabas yan
10:28.9
Pressured sila ng time
10:31.4
Pressured sila ng time
10:32.6
Ang kaibahan lang
10:34.5
Ito may blessing ng presidente
10:38.2
Yung buong machinery
10:40.1
Political capital
10:41.9
And the resources
10:48.0
At saka new opposition
10:50.1
Saan lang gagaling yung pera?
10:52.0
Saan lang gagaling yung pera?
11:07.7
Alam mo naman sa Pilipinas
11:08.7
Mahirap itago yan
11:12.1
Pero alam din naman natin
11:14.7
Ay hindi naman ito yung
11:15.9
Katulad sa ibang bansa
11:17.5
Na very independent
11:20.9
Appointive yan eh
11:23.7
Very vulnerable yan
11:27.1
Hawak nalang yung bola
11:31.1
Kung tama ba yung
11:32.4
People's initiative
11:33.4
Sila ba yung titingin
11:34.7
Kung meron ba talagang
11:37.8
Sila yung magbibigay
11:40.2
Kung pupunta sa second stage
11:44.9
Yan yung nangyayari
11:47.0
A lot of moving parts
11:48.8
Kailangan mangyari
11:54.7
Hindi kanya ka-efficient
11:57.0
Political organizations
12:00.8
Maraming susulput
12:05.0
Kung ano yung gusto ba talagang gawin
12:06.9
Ano ba talaga yung gustong palitan
12:10.2
Parang kung titignan mo yung
12:14.2
Parang masyado namang
12:20.0
Binibenta mo naman yung bansa
12:21.5
Sa mga foreigners
12:23.2
Parang kulang sa predicate eh
12:29.5
Ito yung problema nung Ed sa
12:31.8
Nung Ed sa Constitution
12:33.0
Ito yung kailangan natin gawin
12:35.3
Kaya i-welcome natin
12:36.6
Lahat ng mga dayuhan
12:40.9
Yung political narrative
12:42.6
Walang argument naman
12:45.1
Restriction sa investment
12:48.4
So tinanggal mo yun
12:49.2
Magically everything will be fine
12:50.7
Alam mo naman yung mga
12:54.7
Lalong nagsususpensya yung mga tao
12:56.3
Kung ganyan ang sinasabi mo
12:58.2
Ano yung nakatago?
13:00.5
Yung pinag-uusapan natin kanina
13:02.5
Yan ba ay shift of parliamentary system?
13:05.9
Na yung prime minister
13:07.3
Ang magpapatakbo ng gobyerno
13:08.8
At yung presidente
13:09.8
Yung magre-represent ng state
13:13.8
The state representative
13:14.9
And the government leader
13:16.2
Yan ba yung ating pinopropose?
13:18.6
Yan ba sa transitory provisions
13:20.7
Ay ililift ang mga term limits?
13:25.7
Even the president?
13:27.1
So ang daming mga
13:28.9
At lahat yan nangyayari at the same time
13:32.6
Lahat yan nangyayari at the same time
13:35.0
Hindi ko sigurado
13:45.2
And surpass all the
13:47.0
Attacks and contradictions
13:50.0
Delicate din para sa opposition
13:54.7
Ininvoke kasi yung EDSA
13:57.5
Natitira ng mga support
13:59.5
Alam naman natin na may problema
14:01.0
Yung mga EDSA institutions
14:02.1
Pero you don't throw the baby
14:04.7
With the bathwater
14:05.7
Kaya nagkaroon ng bagong stimulant
14:09.7
Yung mga pro-EDSA
14:13.9
Baka makaroon sila
14:20.0
Yung mga Duterte na besidge
14:22.4
At nalilito kung anong gagawin
14:24.5
Baka magkaroon ng political narrative
14:28.3
Almost impossible na magsama yan
14:32.1
Paano gagawin niyang
14:33.4
Yung track na yan
14:35.0
Na hindi magsasama
14:36.1
Baka nga magbanatan pa eh
14:39.0
Yun naman yung delicate
14:39.7
Yun sa nag-oppose
14:41.9
Kaya nga sabi mo kanina
14:45.0
Masaya talaga ito
14:52.5
Ang daming sides eh
14:54.5
At saka ang daming angles eh
14:56.4
Ang daming angles
14:56.9
Tawag dyan hybrid
15:00.7
Yung mga political analyst
15:02.9
Dito kayo nagkahanap buhay eh
15:04.7
Sa ganitong klaseng mga kalagayan
15:10.9
Ang sabi nung isang
15:11.8
Political analyst
15:13.1
Wala naman problema
15:14.1
There are political analysts
15:16.4
And there are political analysts
15:22.3
Pati yung mga pseudo analyst
15:24.3
Magtatribe sa ganitong sitwasyon
15:26.3
Kahit mga nananalist
15:29.3
Meron silang soapbox eh
15:30.8
Meron silang soapbox
15:36.4
Mga heckler lang kami
15:38.2
Hindi naman kami mga
15:39.2
Mga professional political analyst
15:41.5
Tulad sa salya na heckler
15:43.3
Naku yung heckler
15:44.2
Naging senador na
15:45.2
Yung kapatid niya
15:45.9
Maging presedador
15:46.7
Ito last point dito sa
15:54.3
We should be worried
15:54.9
About this Chacha thing?
15:56.6
Kailangan mag-ingay lahat
15:59.4
Just to make sure
16:03.0
Yun lang yung best chance mo
16:07.6
Make sure na yung
16:08.9
Isang preferred successor mo
16:10.7
I'm talking about DBM right?
16:12.1
Ang taas ng incentive niya
16:13.3
To push for this di ba?
16:14.6
And hindi kaya better
16:18.9
Dominate nila yung race
16:21.4
Well after 2025 nga
16:25.1
Baka magbago yung
16:28.4
Ang titignan na nung mga
16:30.5
Nung mga political pundits
16:31.8
Ang titignan na nung mga
16:33.1
Nung mga power centers
16:35.8
Sa presidential race
16:42.3
Kung hindi mawasak si Sarah
16:43.9
Kung hindi siya masama sa ICC case
16:46.5
Ano yung ICC kasi
16:48.0
Kaya nga yung episode
16:50.7
Hindi naman lahat
16:52.1
Isasama sa ICC case eh
16:54.4
Focus on two or three
16:56.1
Yung mga principal
16:57.4
Kung hindi mangyayari yan
17:00.0
Delikado yung mga Marcoses
17:06.7
This has to be resolved now
17:08.4
Not after the midterm
17:10.2
Dahil magbabago yung complexion
17:12.2
Ng political landscape
17:13.9
Political loyalties
17:15.4
After the midterm
17:17.8
2024 is the golden year
17:20.0
If you want something
17:22.3
Himself said in 2020
17:24.1
When he was a senator
17:25.0
Na if you want to change the constitution
17:26.7
You do it early in your term
17:28.9
He said something
17:29.4
Tudigong pa yung advice na
17:31.4
Eventually the same
17:36.7
Tama yung sabi mo
17:40.1
A lot of things will happen
17:45.3
Let's go to the last episode
17:47.5
Thank you so much sir
