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Thank you for watching!

This is the Progressive Party of Taiwan. Of course, this is their progressive party. This is the party that is much closer to the idea of Taiwanese separate identity. And of course, for the critics, this is the party that is usually more sympathetic and is supposedly more sympathetic to the pro-independence sentiments in Taiwan.

Although, of course, as we'll discuss later on, when it comes to Tsai Ing-wen's policies,

and most likely under the incoming Laya administration,

expect natin that they're going to be very responsible

and they're going to have a very balanced approach kung saan

i-assert nila yung

separate Taiwanese identity

pero hindi sila mag-push

for any kind of referendum or

de jure declaration of independence

which, of course, could trigger

a total war with China.

Now, balikan natin itong issue na ito. Anong nangyayari

sa Taiwan at anong implication na ito para sa Pilipinas?

Many things to catch up on.

Of course,

I hope, folks,

napanood nyo yung mga review natin

ng Gomborza the other day

and please, if you didn't have a chance to check it,

go and check it out on our different platforms

on YouTube, Spotify, among others

because for me, pagdating sa

Gomborza, yung

movie, no?

It, in many ways, perhaps

is the beginning of a new golden era

for Philippine cinema.

Anyway, it is a renaissance for Philippine cinema.

Now, balikan natin itong issue ng

Taiwan because malaki ang implication na ito

sa Pilipinas, operationally

and also geopolitically

and potentially even, you know,

morally.

Speaking of operationally,

mamaya pag-usapan natin yan because if you look at

the ETCA bases, some of the ETCA bases

are very close to Taiwan

and that means na pagdating dun sa mga

strategic calculus ng

Pilipinas at mga aliado natin, both

Japan and, of course, the United States,

one of the reasons why interesado

ang Amerika in terms of

gaining access to bases north of the Philippines is

because of the Taiwan question.

So kung ano mangyayari sa Taiwan, in one way or another,

it is gonna have

some implications dun sa ating

aliansa with the United States

but more broadly, it's gonna also have

implications for our own national security,

our own strategic calculus at saka

yung ating relasyon sa China.

So in short, hindi natin mahiwalay

ang nangyayari sa Taiwan

dun sa mga nangyayari sa pagitan ng

Pilipinas, China, at America.

All of these are very much related and later on

operationally, I'll show you why we're

gonna look at the number of maps, we're gonna look at

the number of figures

that show to you how important

Taiwan is to the Philippines, in addition

to the fact na, of course, katulad na mga marami

natin mga kababayan na nag-follow

sa atin all around the world, I noticed na

marami din tayong mga kababayan

at kaibigan at followers sa Taiwan.

As you know,

several hundred thousand strong

ang ASEAN and Filipino

community dyan sa Taiwan. Marami

sa kanila na meet natin nung visiting

scholar ako sa National Chengchi University.

Few years ago, just before pandemic.

So, obviously, yung

primary concern natin kung sakaling

magkakaroon ng gulo sa Taiwan is

yung kalagayan na ating

mga OFWs,

ating mga kababayan.

But whether we like it or not,

that's, you know,

that's not, unfortunately,

that's not gonna be the only concern.

Potentially, may military and geopolitical

concern din ng Pilipinas when it comes to

things that are happening in Taiwan. So, I would argue that

of all ASEAN countries, and perhaps,

of all countries in the world, siguro ang Pilipinas

ay nasa top three or

at most, top five

countries na maging most directly

affected if something major

happens in Taiwan, right? So, that's why

please pay attention to what's happening

in Taiwan. And then, on side note, I don't

know to trivialize the situation. Of course, yung mga kababayan

natin na hindi pa nakapunta sa Taiwan. Ang

daw akong kilala mga Pilipino na

nakapunta sa kung saan-saan,

you know, corner of the world, pero hindi

nakapunta sa Taiwan na napakalapit sa atin. It's a

beautiful country, fantastic people. I love it.

I love the culture. I love the food.

There's so much, so much to see

in Taiwan. And, guess

what? It's just over one hour away

from Manila to Taipei,

and from Lawag in the north to

Kaohsiung, probably wala pang 20 minutes

yan with flight, diba? So,

napakalapit ang Taiwan sa atin. And

geography is geopolitics,

no? So, pag-usapan lahat natin

mga yan. But before

going into the broader

implications for the Philippines, ating national security,

ETCA, Philippine-China-US Triangle,

let's briefly discuss

ano nangyayari sa Taiwan to begin with, para lang

makakatch up tayo ng konti. Obviously,

you're free to check my writings,

including upcoming writings

on the Taiwan elections and its

broader geopolitical implications.

Ipropose natin yan. Actually, if you could just

go online, post, Hey, Darian, Taiwan,

you're gonna see a number of things for background

information. But,

I will post to you,

ipo-forward ko rin kung may mga bagong articles tayo.

But in the meantime, let me just give you an overview

dun sa mga medyo tinatamad.

Sa, right? Ayan, yung mga

polvoronic,

yung mga tiktokers natin,

nangasar na sila, alright?

Yung mga polvoronic yan.

Okay, yung mga tinatamad, nagpo-polvoronic.

Ayan, makinig na lang kayo dito, alright?

Bibigyan natin ng crash course. And of course, by the way,

congratulations

sa ating mga madridistas.

Ayan, nanalo tayo ng

finals ng Super Cup

laban sa Barcelona.

Of course, I have nothing against Barcelona, but, you know,

heart and a tie. Very,

ano tayo, diehard

madridista po tayo. So, congratulations

sa Real Madrid. Very young team. Very,

very, very

energetic team and huge, huge potential.

So, I'm super happy for Real Madrid.

And, at the same time, of course,

congratulations also to the new administration

or new incoming

administration sa Taiwan, the

William Lai administration.

Pag-usapan natin yan. So, eto,

these are the numbers. So,

the race, actually, was

much closer than many thought.

I was in Taiwan a few months ago

and I remember,

actually, iba sa inyo, you were able to

watch live, kasi na-livestream ko yung

papasok si William Lai

dun sa event namin sa Taiwan

and he gave a speech

so you can find it actually on my

pages, especially sa Facebook page

na-livestream natin, si William Lai coming in.

I found him very relaxed.

I found him very self-assured and self-confident.

Definitely not

flashy. Definitely not populist.

Definitely not demagogic.

Definitely not ozon provocateur.

So, let's just hope for

responsible statesmanship

and for continuing the good legacy

of the outgoing Taiwanese President

Tsai Ing-wen. Because in fairness to President

Tsai Ing-wen, I know marami siyang

critics inside Taipei, marami siyang

critics outside Taipei,

but I think overall she was able to prevent

any major diplomatic crisis

with China. The only major

event that happened during the Tsai Ing-wen

administration, hindi ito kasalanan

ni Tsai Ing-wen. Kasalanan ito ng mga Amerikan.

Or kasalanan din niya

ng mga Chino. And this was the

pagbisita ni former

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi

sa Taipei. I'm not sure

how much that was

instigated on the part of Taipei and Taiwan.

Some are saying that was more

sariling sikap ni

then outgoing Speaker of the House

Nancy Pelosi. And of course, that marked

what experts call the fourth

Taiwan Straits

crisis or the fourth

cross-straits crisis.

Right? Thankfully,

hindi nakaroon ng gyera and thankfully, we're able

to get through it. In fact, napansin ko dito

sa TikTok, for instance, in most view

video natin, analysis natin

is actually in the Taiwan crisis

noong August 2022.

Close to half a million views. So

I'm glad that there's a lot of interest.

I'm glad that there's a lot of interest

pagdating sa developments

sa Taipei

at cross-straits relations

including on TikTok, which of course

you know, medyo binash natin ako.

The other month, kasi

sabi ko, parang yung mga pinapost ko

sa West Philippines, parang ano.

Anyway, mga pang-usapan yun,

balikan natin itong TikTok later on. Okay, let's go back to Taipei.

Let's go back to Taipei

and Taiwan and what happened there.

So eto, katulad ng kitang dito sa graphics

na yan, of course, don't worry yung mga ibang

followers natin on different platforms, you'll see a

finalist version of this. So if you look at it,

the elections was

pretty tight because there were three candidates.

Usually, it's like,

because Taiwan is supposed to be more like United States.

And what the Philippines was supposed to look like,

which was like a two-party systems or

dominant two-party systems.

But these elections, for the

first time in a very long time, actually, the third party,

the TPP party by Ko Wen-je

and Wo Sin-ying

actually did very, very well.

Very, very well. It won

close to 4 million votes,

which was equal to 26.46%

of the votes. The Go-Ming-Tang

party, which used to be the dominant

party for almost, what, half a century,

and then still managed to win

elections during democratic elections.

So actually, I had a chance to meet back

then when he was the president, mind you.

So Ho Yu-hee and

Zhao Kung, they managed to win

close to

5 million votes,

4,671,000 votes.

So that's equal to 33%

of the votes. So put together,

if you look at the TPP

party and Go-Ming-Tang party,

that's more or less 60%

of the votes, right? But because

split, yung dalawang alternative parties,

na yan, that provided the opening

for Lai to

close the race

together with Xiao B. Kim

at 40%. So just over 40%,

40.05%,

and close to 6 million votes.

Now, this is lower

than 57%

votes that Tsai Ing-wen

won in the previous

elections in 2020. Significantly

lower, but because it was a three-way

race, he managed

to have,

you know,

a pretty comfortable lead. Because if you

look at the lead between number one and number two,

that's the TPP and the Go-Ming-Tang

party, that's a huge lead.

That's more than 1 million votes,

5.6 versus 4.7,

and this

was 40% to 33%.

So, not even close,

right? Now, there were concerns that the

race was closing because as I said, I remember

when in August I was

in Taiwan and listening to

William Lai, he was

a prohibitive favorite, but the race,

the race began to close, and then

we look at the final result,

it was a comfortable win. But,

as I already mentioned a while ago, if

the Go-Ming-Tang

and the TPP party, if they joined

forces, they would have had

close to 60% of the votes, and

they would have had

changed the result of these

elections, you know? Now,

dahil sa

internal party politics,

TAPO politics, whatever you want to call it,

hindi po mayak either siho,

or siko, na bumaba as

the vice presidential race. So, hindi na karoon ng

unit team, right? So,

had the TPP and Go-Ming-Tang

form a unit team,

then they would have defeated the TPP party,

right? Even if TPP party

was able to secure a significant

plurality of the votes at around

40% or so.

The overall voting turnout was

around 72%, so that's 3%

lower than the previous elections,

but nevertheless among the highest

if you look at the established democracies.

So, that's quite interesting

if you look at that. Now, dun sa

parliamentary race, if you look at

the Taiwanese

TPP party,

it managed to win around 51 seats

out of 100

plus, is it

113?

Legislature, yung

Legislative Yuan,

they only lost by one because the

Go-Ming-Tang won 52 seats,

but neither of them have a majority,

so actually,

the future of the

legislature of Taiwan is

still up for grabs

because the TPP party

actually won 8 seats, and if I'm not

mistaken, the independents have 2 seats.

So, around 10 seats will

determine who

will control the legislature.

So, it's not necessarily

100% sure that the

opposition will control the Legislative Yuan,

so there's still some slight chance that

the TPP party will hold on to

both the legislature and

the executive, although I'd rather not

bet on that.

Now, having said that,

bago na karoon ng elections,

actually, China made so many threats.

So, so many threats, and in fact,

those threats were made even

after the elections.

So, ahead of the race,

damage to China,

they've been bashing the TPP party, and essentially

warning the Taiwanese people against voting

for the TPP

party because they see them as

renegades, they see them

as troublemakers, and if you look

at some of the headlines coming out there,

there'll be severe punishment

if ever in an aling

TPP party na more

pro-independence than the other party, especially

Kuomintang. Although, as I said,

even the TPP is making sure

that they don't openly provoke

China and not give you an excuse.

If you look at some of the more right-wing

American

Western publications, they look at how

China has vowed to

crush Taiwan if

Taiwan moves towards something

more dramatic. Now,

it looks like none of these threats

by China really work. In fact, it was

not only threats by China. I mean, China did a lot

of military exercises around Taiwan

over the past year, not only

after yung Nancy Pelosi visit.

Also, there were concerns

about Chinese sharp power operations.

Alam nyo na yung mga yan, yung mga

Pogo style, yung mga ganan, diba?

Actually, Taiwan

in 2018, if I'm not

mistaken, in the parliamentary

elections, medyo malaki yung talo

ng DPP party back then because

China allegedly was able

to influence the elections by

backing a lot of pro-Beijing

folks, and a lot of them

allegedly comes from the Kuomintang party, which

ironically was kalaban of Communist Party

back during the Civil War years.

So, there has been fears

na China will be able to manipulate the

elections, undermine the elections,

sabotage the elections, and essentially

intimidate and bully the voters

against rallying behind the DPP party,

but none of that happened.

None of that actually happened.

What happened eventually was

opposition remained,

the pro-Beijing opposition

remained divided,

and they could not come together.

But more importantly, and this is

what I have to emphasize here,

don't worry guys, I'm not going to overdo

the Taiwan part. I know in the malaki, I'm super

excited about Taiwan, but I have to do this part because

before we go to the broader

regional implications, we have

to look at what happened inside Taiwan first.

I know. Okay, so if you look at it,

this is an interesting survey by National

Changsha University, which actually I used to be

based there as a visiting scholar.

So, if you look at this survey,

it's very interesting. Now, as you know,

of course, Taiwan is technically

called Republic of China.

They consider themselves as the true

heir of what Sun Yat-sen

began more than 100 years

ago. And, of

course, a lot of folks in Taiwan are

of Chinese ethnic

background. A lot of them,

well, a huge number of them speak

Mandarin or Chinese. A lot of them also speak Japanese

by the way, because of the Japanese colonial history there.

Apparently, it was not as bad as

what we had in the case of the Philippines and other

Southeast Asian countries. Now, if you look

at it, if this is a survey,

halos,

I mean, it's

vast majority of Taiwanese,

sorry, over time, more and more

Taiwanese, from 92

all the way to 2023,

end of 2023.

If you look at the green

arrow there,

you could see, so from

just around 20%

of Taiwanese, now, close to

70% of Taiwanese consider themselves

as primarily Taiwanese.

Right? So, they see

themselves as belonging to

a de facto separate nation.

Now, at the same time, those who consider

themselves as only Chinese

has significantly

reduced over time.

And then, those who see themselves as both

Chinese and Taiwanese,

there's a steady secular decline.

So, the Taiwanese sense

of identity has significantly,

significantly increased. And that's

why, actually, ang nangyari dito is,

kahit yung mga seemingly

pro-China candidates,

even they had to

tone down their rhetoric, and even

they had to essentially

renounce, or not naman renounce,

but eschew

or shun any serious

discussion of reunification with China.

Kasi alam nyo naman, diba, ang idea

dyan is, both Taiwan

and China, tanggap nila na may isa lang

China, ang disagreement nila is

kanino dapat yung ultimate

sovereignty? Is it the

regime that escaped to Taiwan

and eventually created

the foundations of what we today

call the Republic of China, or

is it the communist regime in Beijing?

Right? So, both of them agree that there's

one modern China, but

they don't agree on

whom should sovereignty lie.

But the reality is that,

both Taiwan and China are moving

in a much more confrontational direction

because Taiwanese are feeling less

and less attached to China

and they're feeling more and more

de facto independent

although they're not moving yet towards a

de jure declaration of independence.

No one wants war, no one wants to provoke

China. At the same time, yung China rin

nagiging more assertive siya

in terms of emphasizing

na ang Taiwan po ay dapat

kabilang ng China and

that should happen sooner than later.

So, kung titignan nyo yung

end of the year

or new year

speech ni Xi Jinping

on Taiwan, he effectively

said that all options are still

on the table.

That, as

President Xi Jinping or paramount leader

Xi Jinping said, Taiwan and China

will surely be unified.

Dun sa kanyang New Year's Eve

speech. So,

Beijing is implying,

well, not implying, they're accusing Taiwan

of moving towards de facto

independence and they're accusing them

of being agent provocateurs

but for Taiwanese, not only do they feel more

Taiwanese, but they also

feel that they're being more bullied

and therefore they have to protect themselves more.

So, both are moving towards

some sort of confrontation.

Interestingly, while they're moving towards

more confrontation,

both are also hoping

that status quo holds. So, it's a very

tricky, tricky situation because

at once,

both want more,

both are worried, but also both want

the situation not to escalate

too far. Now,

dito yung risky ng situation because

i-explain ko.

Ito yung tinatawag ko na dangerous deadlock.

So, sa isang banda,

ang China, yan ang gyera.

But, but,

but,

nagsaslow dang economy sa China,

President Xi Jinping

is the paramount leader, so

anything that goes wrong, it's gonna be

on him. So, there's more

pressure on President Xi Jinping. After everything

he has been saying, after everything yung mga

factotums niya have been saying,

there's a lot of, there's growing pressure on

the President, right? There's growing pressure on

President Xi Jinping to assert