00:35.5
whether ito yung relasyon natin sa Amerika at whether ito yung ating pushback against China,
00:40.4
particularly dyan sa West Philippine Sea, mukhang we're going very strong.
00:44.3
In fact, of course, kagabirin, the big news was President Marcos Jr. congratulating the newly elected president of Taiwan
00:50.3
and then Taiwan also getting into kind of a bromance and love fest with the Philippines.
00:53.9
These are huge, huge things.
00:55.3
So I think the Philippines is entering some.
00:57.0
New unchartered territory and pagdating naman dyan sa West Philippine Sea, to be honest about it,
01:01.8
I think China is really scratching their heads and they're wondering what's going on with the Philippines.
01:06.8
How much farther should the Philippines go?
01:08.8
My sense here is dahil dun sa ilalim ng Duterte administration, siguro medyo one-hand tied ang AFP
01:16.9
at marami sa ating security establishment who wanted a tougher pushback against China,
01:21.8
ngayon na biglang meron ng green light from the very top, ngayon na may strategic vision,
01:27.0
ang kasalukuyan na administration, particularly President BBM, na the Philippines has to draw the line.
01:32.0
It looks like people are pushing the envelope further and further.
01:35.0
So to be honest, I know people are going to be surprised by this.
01:37.5
Actually, now suddenly my concern is baka magkakaroon tayo ng overcorrection.
01:42.7
If you look at China, they are really back themselves in the corner,
01:47.4
whereby they're making it look na they're not going to accept any form of major reconstruction activity by the Philippines
01:53.6
and there will be potentially an aggressive response.
01:57.0
By China, kaya nakita natin over the past six months, itong water canoning incidents, among others.
02:01.3
Of course, alam ng isang ka-host natin dyan, di ba, with your Christmas convoy mission.
02:06.8
So this is very tense.
02:08.5
So you're really, I don't want to say playing with fire, kasi parang vini-victim blame ko yung Pilipinas.
02:14.1
After all, this is perfectly within our rights and perfectly within our strategic imperative to push the envelope.
02:20.7
But huwag natin kalimutan na napaka-init ang panahon ngayon.
02:23.3
Mainit ang ulo ng China because nangyara sa Taiwan.
02:26.1
I'm sure mainit din.
02:27.1
Ang ulo nila na medyo nagiging more friendly tayo sa Taiwan, not necessarily in violation of one China policy.
02:32.6
But this one will be a big thing.
02:34.3
So as Patrick correctly pointed out, this could cross a certain line for China.
02:38.5
Now, I'm not against pushing the envelope.
02:41.2
I'm just saying dapat handa tayo for potential reprisals by China on multiple fronts.
02:46.7
I mean, China can respond economically, cyber attacks, or even more aggressive moves in the high seas.
02:53.5
Now, my sense though is behind the scenes.
02:57.0
I mean, we have a lot of conversations with our friends and allies.
03:00.1
Obviously, Japan and Australia and India are coming in.
03:02.5
But definitely with the United States, kung maalala nyo, President BBM just over a month ago was in the Pacific Command in Hawaii,
03:12.2
the first foreign leader to visit there in quite some time, and first Filipino leader, if I'm not mistaken, in recent memory.
03:17.0
So I'm sure they discuss all of these contingencies.
03:19.8
At recently rin may malaking meeting between the high command of the Pentagon and the AFP.
03:25.2
And the fact that General Barr...
03:26.9
The brawner, right, was part of the one of the recent convoys there.
03:32.7
It looks like even the leadership of the AFP is very invested in correcting lahat ng mga kakulangan natin during the time of Duterte.
03:40.4
But clearly, there's a huge risk here.
03:42.3
So my hope is I'm not privy to information.
03:44.8
Even if I were, I couldn't share it.
03:46.5
I hope that they're ready for any potential pushback or contentious from China.
03:50.8
The good scenario would be the best case scenario would be maingay lang ng China, but eventually they'll blink because they'll realize
03:56.9
that China is very determined and the Philippines has the backup.
03:59.2
My mid-range or more possible scenario is that China may, you know, try to do something just to not look like a fool.
04:08.9
And that could actually put us on an unwanted path towards some sort of collision here and there.
04:14.3
So kaya very nervous ako dun sa situation sa West Philippine Sea sa kasalukuyan ng taon.
04:19.7
And we hope that dun sa program natin sa VU4 Manila, we'll talk to folks from the military, PCG, and other different agencies
04:25.9
para pag-usapan natin.
04:26.8
Itong mga scenarios na ito.
04:27.8
So it's a very, very tense situation kasi multiple fronts ang nangyari.
04:32.0
So the Philippines is really entering a new zone.
04:34.0
This is really an uncharted territory strategically, operationally, and geopolitically for us.
04:40.0
But is this something, kasi you talked about the possibility of over-correction eh.
04:43.0
Is this something that you think we shouldn't push too much?
04:48.0
I mean, a major construction on Lawak Island that's almost a billion or 800 million.
04:55.0
Naglalaki din yun ah.
04:56.8
So, you know, I get what you're saying.
05:00.5
Ako naman, I am for Philippine progressively pushing the envelope because we have to catch up for yung mga kakulangan natin dati.
05:08.3
Kasi kung titignan ang Pilipinas, we're way behind curve.
05:11.1
Ang Vietnamese po, nag-militarize na sila lahat ng mga isla nila doon.
05:14.8
Mga Malaysians, nag-push na sila with unilateral exploration of oil and gas doon sa areas claimed by both Vietnam and China.
05:22.2
Ito yung Petronas incident, West Capella incident in 2020-2021.
05:26.8
So, actually, we're behind the curve.
05:28.8
So, I agree that we have to do something about it.
05:30.8
Ang medyo alanganin ako is yung pace.
05:33.8
Kung magka-catch up ka ba, parang marathon yan eh.
05:36.8
Magka-catch up ka ba, tatakbo ka na parang sprint.
05:38.8
That has its kind of risks eh.
05:40.8
So, for me, the best way is kind of split the difference.
05:43.8
So, for instance, ang pwede natin gawin dito is unti-unti natin develop.
05:48.8
So, for me, the priority here should be yung ayung insyol.
05:51.8
We have to communicate to China na non-negotiable yung situation sa Sierra Madre.
05:55.8
Na hindi tayo papayag na the thing will give away and will lose any kind of effective control.
06:01.8
Doon sa ibang areas, probably we can tell the Chinese behind the scenes quietly that we can kind of split the difference.
06:08.8
In fact, my suggestion even right now, I know it's going to be controversial in light of what's happening,
06:12.8
is that maybe siguro dapat pwede natin gawin is to tell China na we're willing to a little bit soften doon sa northern regions of the Philippines pagdating sa Taiwan question.
06:21.8
Kasi kung titignan mo yung mga base na in-offer natin sa mga Amerikano,
06:25.8
sa Cagayan, sa Isabela, and potentially even sa Batanes, magpabuild pa tayo ng mga ports sa Pentagon,
06:30.8
nakaka-nerbistan sa China. So, for me, we can kind of do a deal or kind of an understanding with China na we'll slow down things in the north,
06:38.8
but we're not going to slow down with things in the west, particularly in the West Philippine Sea.
06:43.8
And in exchange, China has to make sure they don't do anything stupid or crazy because otherwise, we're just going to dig in together with allies and friends.
06:50.8
I know this is going to be controversial and there are going to be people who will disagree with me and say,
06:55.8
it's also existential, we have to do something about it.
06:57.8
But for me, step by step, sequencing is everything. In mathematics is everything, also in geopolitics is everything.
07:04.8
My fear is, again, overcorrection na we'll move aggressively on ten different fronts and give every reason to hardliners in China to do something stupid and crazy
07:13.8
and then good luck na lang sa atin, we'll be in a very uncharted territory.
07:16.8
So, I'm for sequencing, splitting the difference, building some understanding here, moving a little bit there,
07:23.8
until medyo mag-de-escalate yung diplomatic tensions and all.
07:53.8
You already lashed back at the congratulatory message that U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken sent to Taiwanese President.
08:03.8
So, what do you make of this, Richard?
08:05.8
Well, iba yung sa United States. Kasi, I know, behind the scenes, there's security cooperation already between U.S. and Taiwan.
08:12.8
So, may security element na yan. So, whenever U.S. shows more support or interest in Taiwan, the Chinese will automatically assume that there's more to that.
08:21.8
When it comes to the Philippines, I think the Chinese know very well.
08:23.8
We still don't have anything significant in terms of strategic military cooperation with Taiwan.
08:27.8
I mean, I met both President Ma Ying-jeou and also President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei when I visited in the past.
08:33.8
And one of the topics that keeps on coming up in my conversation with Taiwanese officials, including senior officials,
08:38.8
is how little is going on between Philippines and Taiwan considering how close we are.
08:42.8
I mean, Manila is closer to Taipei than any ASEAN major capital, right? Isang oras lang nandiyan ka na sa Taipei.
08:47.8
So, geography is everything. And yet, sobrang limitado yung interaction natin.
08:52.8
And things were even tense during time of Digong, di ba?
08:55.8
So, my point here is that I think China is hoping that there's nothing much to this.
09:02.8
But obviously, they're following very closely what's going on here.
09:08.8
Because in fairness naman sa Department of Foreign Affairs, they clarified that we're still sticking to our one China policy.
09:13.8
We're not recognizing Taiwan as a separate political entity.
09:17.8
Having said that though,
09:20.8
of course, this could be also a signal that the Philippines is open to more strategic or economic cooperation with Taiwan.
09:27.8
I mean, one of the areas I've been looking at when I visit Taipei or talk to our interlocutors,
09:31.8
there is maybe the Philippines and Taiwan can have more semiconductor and strategic economic cooperation.
09:35.8
So, ang daming potential to Philippine-Taiwan cooperation, except there has been not much of conversation.
09:41.8
And to be honest, yung mga pinapadala natin tao sa Taipei, yung met ko ba yan or tap ko, whatever, tap ko yung sa Taiwan.
09:48.8
Actually, they're not professional diplomats.
09:50.8
So, it's usually political appointees or people who were, I don't know, serving some political positions.
09:55.8
So, the other problem we have with Taiwan is that we don't have real professionals on top of making the most out of the relationship.
10:02.8
Now, of course, now I think we have Secretary Sylvester Bello who at least has some experience at the highest level.
10:07.8
So, ang question here is, is President Marco Jr. signaling that we're going to move the needle a little bit further?
10:14.8
So, clearly, that's going to piss off the Chinese if they catch some information.
10:17.8
They catch some information in that regard.
10:19.8
Is there something to read into that post by President Bongbong Marcos?
10:23.8
Well, in itself, it's a big thing, right, Patrick?
10:26.8
I mean, do you remember any time that the Filipino president openly congratulated a Taiwanese leader?
10:31.8
And this is not just any Taiwanese leader.
10:33.8
I don't have time to research back on that, but I'm not aware.
10:37.8
Yun nga eh. And the thing, Patrick, this is like a DPP.
10:42.8
This is a Democratic Party. This is the party that China hates the most.
10:46.8
I think if it were a Kuomintang or more China-friendly party, maybe, I don't know, you could have interpreted differently.
10:51.8
And this is the first time in history of Taiwan since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 1996
10:57.8
na back-to-back-to-back nanalo isang partido, which also happens to be very Taiwanese in its political orientation.
11:03.8
And quite anti-China, to be frank about this.
11:06.8
So, I don't think this is nothing.
11:08.8
And ang bilis nung response ni Lai.
11:10.8
I think may isa pa na naman pinost ng Taiwanese Foreign Ministry this morning.
11:14.8
I was checking it again.
11:15.8
Also, really signaling, I mean, so far it's Twitter diplomacy, right, Patrick?
11:20.8
But Twitter diplomacy could be the beginning of something bigger.
11:23.8
I mean, we saw that during Trump administration.
11:25.8
So, ang akin lang, it's a very under-top relationship for many reasons.
11:30.8
There's a lot of potential to it.
11:32.8
But then again, my advice will be the same, just like West Philippine Sea.
11:35.8
Move forward, but cautiously, sequentially, and make sure at the same time you have robust communication channels with China.
11:42.8
Kasi ito parating worry ko, Patrick and Ed, diba?
11:45.8
We go from these wild swings.
11:47.8
Sobrang anti-China.
11:48.8
And then you go digong.
11:50.8
And then now we're going back to this again.
11:52.8
What we need is a kind of a healthy medium, right?
11:55.8
A kind of a golden medium.
11:57.8
That's not easy to get considering what's happened right now.
12:00.8
But I'm not sure we are making the best effort to move in that direction.
12:05.8
Having said that though, I still generally support the foreign policy direction of the current administration.
12:11.8
I think it's correct.
12:12.8
And I had a recent piece on Journal of Democracy.
12:14.8
That I think made some rounds and raised a lot of eyebrows about explaining why the Philippine foreign policy is moving in a very good direction under President Marquez Jr.
12:23.8
Despite all expectations that we'll be more like Duterte rather than his late father who was actually very proactive in the West Philippine Sea question.
12:32.8
It's a moving picture.
12:33.8
There's a lot of risk here.
12:35.8
But let me give a positive twist to it, spin to it.
12:38.8
Maybe this is part of the Philippines growing up.
12:41.8
I think it's time for the Philippines to also embrace more strategic policy.
12:43.8
Embrace more strategic risk.
12:45.8
If this is part of our maturation as an emerging middle power.
12:49.8
So that's the kind of positive spin I can give to all of this.
12:52.8
At some point in time, we have to grow up and take some risk and draw the line.
12:56.8
And it just happens that we're dealing with China.
12:59.8
But there are those who say that Asians are particular with the concept of saving face.
13:04.8
I mean, whatever you do, make sure that there's enough space for your antagonists or for the other side.
13:13.8
You have a little bit of leeway so hindi masyado mapahiya.
13:16.8
That way, you don't end up going to war or doing anything really bad.
13:22.8
Of course, it can't be the linchpin of foreign policy.
13:26.8
But in the end, do you think we've given enough leeway for saving face?
13:35.8
For China to back down without losing face?
13:38.8
Well, in fairness to President Marcos Jr., his rhetoric has been extremely cordial and statesman-like.
13:43.8
I mean, show me a single quote by President BBM who said something extremely negative about China or insulting.
13:49.8
I don't see anything there.
13:51.8
I think President Marcos Jr. has been extremely diplomatic and statesman-like.
13:54.8
He met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC last year.
13:58.8
If you look at the DFA Secretary, Secretary Manalo also, extremely, extremely courteous and very calibrated with his language.
14:06.8
Now, I don't want to criticize others, but the thing is that you also have other top officials who are sounding a little bit aggressive.
14:12.8
So, I don't know if China is seeing this as good cop, bad cop.
14:17.8
But my point is, in fairness, our top diplomat, which is the President, and our top ambassador to Beijing, our SFA, all of them, I think, have been sounding the good note.
14:28.8
It's not like there's not effort in that regard.
14:31.8
Nevertheless, when you hear some top officials in the Philippines saying that there's no point to diplomacy with China,
14:36.8
and then you have some maybe officials implying that China is kind of a bully or openly calling China as a bully,
14:42.8
you know, I'm an outspoken person, but I'm not an official.
14:45.8
I'm not a senior official or not yet, right?
14:47.8
So, I think maybe that's something that may talk to what you're saying, which is saving face and all of that.
14:55.8
But again, my point here is, I think it's also because we are trying to correct what happened during the Duterte administration.
15:03.8
Because during the Duterte administration, the President was, to quote a fellow ASEAN journalist, almost slavish in his rhetoric towards China.
15:12.8
So, I think what's happening is some of the other officials are taking things into their own hands
15:16.8
because they want to signal the Philippines is not a province of China, quote-unquote, right?
15:20.8
But then again, I just hope na once medyo tapos na yung airing of grievances and once we made it clear to China
15:26.8
that this is not the same administration, I hope more officials talk more like President BBM and Secretary Manalo
15:33.8
because I think that's a healthy way.
15:35.8
Now, having said that, I don't think that Asians are necessarily always nice to each other.
15:39.8
Just look at Korea and Japan, right?
15:41.8
I mean, look at what Koreans say.
15:43.8
I can give you, look at Singapore and Malaysia.
15:46.8
Look at Malaysia.
15:47.8
You know, I can go on and on, the history of how badly we Asians talk to each other.
15:51.8
So, it's not a monopoly of the Western or Middle Eastern people to talk badly.
15:57.8
And I think there's nothing Western with the Philippines also drawing the line.
16:01.8
And I'll tell you this.
16:03.8
I found it very interesting that just before Jokowi essentially passed on the chairmanship of ASEAN ahead of New York,
16:11.8
for the first time in the history of ASEAN, my stand-alone statement on the South China Sea,
16:16.8
expressing solidarity with us and saying that South China Sea, West Philippine Sea, is a common maritime sphere.
16:23.8
And then Jokowi was here in town just the other day talking about more maritime security cooperation.
16:29.8
President BBM is going to Vietnam before the end of this month.
16:33.8
Also talk about...
16:34.8
So, my point is, I heard the Prime Minister or two, I'm not gonna say sino, alam ni Patrick yan,
16:39.8
kinakritisize tayo ng ko.
16:41.8
But I also know there are leaders in ASEAN, Indonesia, Vietnam and more others,
16:46.8
who are not too unhappy with what we're doing and actually are open to more security cooperation with us.
16:51.8
So, I don't know which Asians we're talking about here because Asians, just like other people,
16:55.8
we're very diverse and there are different faces to us.
16:58.8
Sometimes we can have the angry face, sometimes we can have a happy face.
17:01.8
Parang kabuki yan, di ba?
17:03.8
So, I see the value to being nice.
17:05.8
But yung friends to all, enemy to none, medyo pang tourism department po yan.
17:10.8
Hindi yan pwede sa West Philippine.
17:11.8
Yun lang ang stance ko dyan.
17:13.8
As Bible said, there's a time for love, there's a time for peace.
17:16.8
Yun lang sa akin.
17:18.8
Okay. Nice talking to you, Richard.
17:21.8
Pasigitan ko isa pa.
17:22.8
Kasi, you only mentioned the one.
17:24.8
Responsive China to this sudden budgeting for building and construction sa West Philippine Sea.
17:35.8
Possibilities like cyber warfare or more aggressive positions and actions sa West Philippine Sea.
17:40.8
What are you looking at?
17:42.8
Could you give us more ideas of what could possibly happen?
17:46.8
How could China possibly respond?
17:48.8
And how far could China possibly go?
17:51.8
Nakita natin, I'll just give you a couple of examples.
17:55.8
One was, very quickly, remember yung may armada ng mga Chinese militia forces?
18:00.8
I think malapit ba yan sa Juan Felipe Reif?
18:05.8
I mean, they have literally the biggest navy on earth.
18:08.8
Way bigger than United States.
18:10.8
Way bigger than all US allies.
18:11.8
I'm just saying, may eskalatory dominance ng China.
18:15.8
So if you escalated without preparation, may mas malaki silang itatapat sa'yo.
18:20.8
Kung naglabas ka ng barel, may arma light sila.
18:22.8
Maglabas ka ng arma light, may RPG sila.
18:24.8
So yun yung tinatawag na eskalatory dynamics or dominance.
18:28.8
So if you're gonna slightly push the envelope, make sure hindi siya magpapamasad dun sa threshold kung saan China can bring in something bigger.
18:36.8
Because then we're gonna be in some bridge.
18:37.8
Then we're gonna be in some big trouble.
18:38.8
But kaya nga sabi ko, if you sequence it, unti here, unti dyan, you can play around this.
18:43.8
And slowly build up the Philippines position.
18:45.8
That's what Vietnam has been doing, and that's what kind of Malaysia has been doing.
18:48.8
But I'll tell you this.
18:50.8
I know that some people are implying the Malaysian Prime Minister kinda slightly criticized our position.
18:54.8
I heard that from some friends.
18:56.8
But let me tell you this.
18:58.8
Malaysia stood its ground in 2019, 2020.
19:00.8
Dunsa, West Kapila, Petronas.
19:02.8
China bashed them.
19:04.8
Vietnam pushed back.
19:05.8
But in the end, they prevailed.
19:06.8
So we also have many examples whereby magiging nga yung ibang bansa katulad ng China.
19:11.8
But if you keep on pushing the envelope, actually you can get away with it.
19:14.8
But there's one big difference.
19:15.8
Again, Patrick and Ed.
19:16.8
Malaysia's leaders, some of them, they didn't talk like the Philippines.
19:20.8
And they're not a US treaty ally.
19:22.8
And they're not having ETCA.
19:23.8
And they're not giving American bases close to Taiwan.
19:25.8
Do you get what I'm saying?
19:26.8
So may added element ng annoyance ang Pilipinas for China na wala sa mga Vietnamese at wala sa mga Malaysians.
19:33.8
And of course with the Vietnamese, meron silang partnership.
19:36.8
It's a party-to-party relationship.
19:37.8
After all, they're two communist countries.
19:39.8
Kaya ang kutob ko, it's very important to have a real special envoy.
19:42.8
Hindi yung mga self-appointed special envoy.
19:45.8
But someone who has the ear of President BBM but also is respected in China as someone who can be an interlocutor.
19:52.8
Maybe it could be one person, two person.
19:53.8
I mean kung buhay pa sila Ramos, I would have someone like President Ramos to do it again.
19:57.8
God bless his soul, right?
19:58.8
You need someone with that kind of gravitas and that kind of understanding of religion to do it.
20:03.8
Hindi naman mawawala yung tension niyan.
20:05.8
Unfortunately, this is the value of tears you have to go through.
20:08.8
But you have to always keep it below a certain threshold.
20:11.8
In rhetoric and in operational risk levels.
20:14.8
Ang big black box sa akin is...
20:16.8
Ang hindi ko alam is, behind the scenes, anong mga reassurances na nakuha natin sa mga kano?
20:22.8
Or yung mga ibang aliado natin na pro-protektaan tayo once this go wrong?
20:26.8
I just hope we're not over-counting on America's assistance.
20:29.8
Because America is also bogged down in Ukraine still and also increasingly in the Middle East right now.
20:34.8
If you're following along.
20:35.8
I don't know how crazy the situation is also in other parts of the world.
20:38.8
So I'm just saying, hinahinay lang, step by step, we're getting there.
20:42.8
And lastly, let's not forget, inaayos na natin yung pag-asa.
20:45.8
May mga nabuild na tayong mga facilities diyan.
20:47.8
Unti-unti inaayos natin sa ayong insyol.
20:50.8
So I think we're on the right path.
20:51.8
Siguro wag muna tayo mag-sports...
20:53.8
Ano, sports mode muna.
20:55.8
Medyo echo mode, dere-derecho lang.
20:57.8
And then mamay na tayo mag-sports mode once we're ready for all this.
21:00.8
Yun lang sa akin. Yun lang sa akin.
21:02.8
Kaya over-correction is my concern.
21:04.8
If there's only one concern I have, it's over-correction.
21:10.8
Pwede na natin pagkawala sa research.
21:13.8
Hindi, makulit lang tayo mag-isip.
21:15.8
Thank you so much guys for...
21:17.8
A lot of questions more, Richard.
21:18.8
But, you know, marami pa. Marami pa susunod.
21:21.8
Yeah, let's do something more often like this.
21:23.8
Yeah, yeah, definitely.
21:24.8
Hosea Fanon, view from Manila.
21:26.8
We're here in Watipus.
21:28.8
Salamat. God bless.
21:30.8
Talk to you soon.
21:32.8
Alright guys, salamat. Pasensya na ako.
21:33.8
Sinama ko na lang kayo kasi hinahabol-habol natin ito.
21:36.8
Okay guys, talk to you mamay na lang. Habol natin ulit.
21:39.8
Back to work na naman ako.
21:40.8
Ang dami nangyayari ngayon in Taiwan and other parts of the world so I have to write on that.
21:43.8
Salamat. God bless.
21:44.8
And talk to you soon.
