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A million peso investment or infrastructure or project on Pagasa Island?

Hindi, ano, this is Lawak Island, ha?

Lawak ka lang? Okay.

Ibang Pagasa. Lawak Island, kung saan parang meron lang tayong maliit na very, very small structure.

Is something that scale, will it trigger off China, Richard?

Yeah, I think, I mean, kanina pinag-usapan niyo yung cha-cha and all, no,

na it's looking more like something like inevitable, no,

despite all of the potential opposition and bottlenecks and all.

My sense is we're also seeing the same thing on the foreign policy front, no,

whether ito yung relasyon natin sa Amerika at whether ito yung ating pushback against China,

particularly dyan sa West Philippine Sea, mukhang we're going very strong.

In fact, of course, kagabirin, the big news was President Marcos Jr. congratulating the newly elected president of Taiwan

and then Taiwan also getting into kind of a bromance and love fest with the Philippines.

These are huge, huge things.

So I think the Philippines is entering some.

New unchartered territory and pagdating naman dyan sa West Philippine Sea, to be honest about it,

I think China is really scratching their heads and they're wondering what's going on with the Philippines.

How much farther should the Philippines go?

My sense here is dahil dun sa ilalim ng Duterte administration, siguro medyo one-hand tied ang AFP

at marami sa ating security establishment who wanted a tougher pushback against China,

ngayon na biglang meron ng green light from the very top, ngayon na may strategic vision,

ang kasalukuyan na administration, particularly President BBM, na the Philippines has to draw the line.

It looks like people are pushing the envelope further and further.

So to be honest, I know people are going to be surprised by this.

Actually, now suddenly my concern is baka magkakaroon tayo ng overcorrection.

If you look at China, they are really back themselves in the corner,

whereby they're making it look na they're not going to accept any form of major reconstruction activity by the Philippines

and there will be potentially an aggressive response.

By China, kaya nakita natin over the past six months, itong water canoning incidents, among others.

Of course, alam ng isang ka-host natin dyan, di ba, with your Christmas convoy mission.

So this is very tense.

So you're really, I don't want to say playing with fire, kasi parang vini-victim blame ko yung Pilipinas.

After all, this is perfectly within our rights and perfectly within our strategic imperative to push the envelope.

But huwag natin kalimutan na napaka-init ang panahon ngayon.

Mainit ang ulo ng China because nangyara sa Taiwan.

I'm sure mainit din.

Ang ulo nila na medyo nagiging more friendly tayo sa Taiwan, not necessarily in violation of one China policy.

But this one will be a big thing.

So as Patrick correctly pointed out, this could cross a certain line for China.

Now, I'm not against pushing the envelope.

I'm just saying dapat handa tayo for potential reprisals by China on multiple fronts.

I mean, China can respond economically, cyber attacks, or even more aggressive moves in the high seas.

Now, my sense though is behind the scenes.

I mean, we have a lot of conversations with our friends and allies.

Obviously, Japan and Australia and India are coming in.

But definitely with the United States, kung maalala nyo, President BBM just over a month ago was in the Pacific Command in Hawaii,

the first foreign leader to visit there in quite some time, and first Filipino leader, if I'm not mistaken, in recent memory.

So I'm sure they discuss all of these contingencies.

At recently rin may malaking meeting between the high command of the Pentagon and the AFP.

And the fact that General Barr...

The brawner, right, was part of the one of the recent convoys there.

It looks like even the leadership of the AFP is very invested in correcting lahat ng mga kakulangan natin during the time of Duterte.

But clearly, there's a huge risk here.

So my hope is I'm not privy to information.

Even if I were, I couldn't share it.

I hope that they're ready for any potential pushback or contentious from China.

The good scenario would be the best case scenario would be maingay lang ng China, but eventually they'll blink because they'll realize

that China is very determined and the Philippines has the backup.

My mid-range or more possible scenario is that China may, you know, try to do something just to not look like a fool.

And that could actually put us on an unwanted path towards some sort of collision here and there.

So kaya very nervous ako dun sa situation sa West Philippine Sea sa kasalukuyan ng taon.

And we hope that dun sa program natin sa VU4 Manila, we'll talk to folks from the military, PCG, and other different agencies

para pag-usapan natin.

Itong mga scenarios na ito.

So it's a very, very tense situation kasi multiple fronts ang nangyari.

So the Philippines is really entering a new zone.

This is really an uncharted territory strategically, operationally, and geopolitically for us.

But is this something, kasi you talked about the possibility of over-correction eh.

Is this something that you think we shouldn't push too much?

I mean, a major construction on Lawak Island that's almost a billion or 800 million.

Naglalaki din yun ah.

So, you know, I get what you're saying.

Ako naman, I am for Philippine progressively pushing the envelope because we have to catch up for yung mga kakulangan natin dati.

Kasi kung titignan ang Pilipinas, we're way behind curve.

Ang Vietnamese po, nag-militarize na sila lahat ng mga isla nila doon.

Mga Malaysians, nag-push na sila with unilateral exploration of oil and gas doon sa areas claimed by both Vietnam and China.

Ito yung Petronas incident, West Capella incident in 2020-2021.

So, actually, we're behind the curve.

So, I agree that we have to do something about it.

Ang medyo alanganin ako is yung pace.

Kung magka-catch up ka ba, parang marathon yan eh.

Magka-catch up ka ba, tatakbo ka na parang sprint.

That has its kind of risks eh.

So, for me, the best way is kind of split the difference.

So, for instance, ang pwede natin gawin dito is unti-unti natin develop.

So, for me, the priority here should be yung ayung insyol.

We have to communicate to China na non-negotiable yung situation sa Sierra Madre.

Na hindi tayo papayag na the thing will give away and will lose any kind of effective control.

Doon sa ibang areas, probably we can tell the Chinese behind the scenes quietly that we can kind of split the difference.

In fact, my suggestion even right now, I know it's going to be controversial in light of what's happening,

is that maybe siguro dapat pwede natin gawin is to tell China na we're willing to a little bit soften doon sa northern regions of the Philippines pagdating sa Taiwan question.

Kasi kung titignan mo yung mga base na in-offer natin sa mga Amerikano,

sa Cagayan, sa Isabela, and potentially even sa Batanes, magpabuild pa tayo ng mga ports sa Pentagon,

nakaka-nerbistan sa China. So, for me, we can kind of do a deal or kind of an understanding with China na we'll slow down things in the north,

but we're not going to slow down with things in the west, particularly in the West Philippine Sea.

And in exchange, China has to make sure they don't do anything stupid or crazy because otherwise, we're just going to dig in together with allies and friends.

I know this is going to be controversial and there are going to be people who will disagree with me and say,

it's also existential, we have to do something about it.

But for me, step by step, sequencing is everything. In mathematics is everything, also in geopolitics is everything.

My fear is, again, overcorrection na we'll move aggressively on ten different fronts and give every reason to hardliners in China to do something stupid and crazy

and then good luck na lang sa atin, we'll be in a very uncharted territory.

So, I'm for sequencing, splitting the difference, building some understanding here, moving a little bit there,

until medyo mag-de-escalate yung diplomatic tensions and all.

You already lashed back at the congratulatory message that U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken sent to Taiwanese President.

So, what do you make of this, Richard?

Well, iba yung sa United States. Kasi, I know, behind the scenes, there's security cooperation already between U.S. and Taiwan.

So, may security element na yan. So, whenever U.S. shows more support or interest in Taiwan, the Chinese will automatically assume that there's more to that.

When it comes to the Philippines, I think the Chinese know very well.

We still don't have anything significant in terms of strategic military cooperation with Taiwan.

I mean, I met both President Ma Ying-jeou and also President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei when I visited in the past.

And one of the topics that keeps on coming up in my conversation with Taiwanese officials, including senior officials,

is how little is going on between Philippines and Taiwan considering how close we are.

I mean, Manila is closer to Taipei than any ASEAN major capital, right? Isang oras lang nandiyan ka na sa Taipei.

So, geography is everything. And yet, sobrang limitado yung interaction natin.

And things were even tense during time of Digong, di ba?

So, my point here is that I think China is hoping that there's nothing much to this.

But obviously, they're following very closely what's going on here.

Because in fairness naman sa Department of Foreign Affairs, they clarified that we're still sticking to our one China policy.

We're not recognizing Taiwan as a separate political entity.

Having said that though,

of course, this could be also a signal that the Philippines is open to more strategic or economic cooperation with Taiwan.

I mean, one of the areas I've been looking at when I visit Taipei or talk to our interlocutors,

there is maybe the Philippines and Taiwan can have more semiconductor and strategic economic cooperation.

So, ang daming potential to Philippine-Taiwan cooperation, except there has been not much of conversation.

And to be honest, yung mga pinapadala natin tao sa Taipei, yung met ko ba yan or tap ko, whatever, tap ko yung sa Taiwan.

Actually, they're not professional diplomats.

So, it's usually political appointees or people who were, I don't know, serving some political positions.

So, the other problem we have with Taiwan is that we don't have real professionals on top of making the most out of the relationship.

Now, of course, now I think we have Secretary Sylvester Bello who at least has some experience at the highest level.

So, ang question here is, is President Marco Jr. signaling that we're going to move the needle a little bit further?

So, clearly, that's going to piss off the Chinese if they catch some information.

They catch some information in that regard.

Is there something to read into that post by President Bongbong Marcos?

Well, in itself, it's a big thing, right, Patrick?

I mean, do you remember any time that the Filipino president openly congratulated a Taiwanese leader?

And this is not just any Taiwanese leader.

I don't have time to research back on that, but I'm not aware.

Yun nga eh. And the thing, Patrick, this is like a DPP.

This is a Democratic Party. This is the party that China hates the most.

I think if it were a Kuomintang or more China-friendly party, maybe, I don't know, you could have interpreted differently.

And this is the first time in history of Taiwan since the introduction of direct presidential elections in 1996

na back-to-back-to-back nanalo isang partido, which also happens to be very Taiwanese in its political orientation.

And quite anti-China, to be frank about this.

So, I don't think this is nothing.

And ang bilis nung response ni Lai.

I think may isa pa na naman pinost ng Taiwanese Foreign Ministry this morning.

I was checking it again.

Also, really signaling, I mean, so far it's Twitter diplomacy, right, Patrick?

But Twitter diplomacy could be the beginning of something bigger.

I mean, we saw that during Trump administration.

So, ang akin lang, it's a very under-top relationship for many reasons.

There's a lot of potential to it.

But then again, my advice will be the same, just like West Philippine Sea.

Move forward, but cautiously, sequentially, and make sure at the same time you have robust communication channels with China.

Kasi ito parating worry ko, Patrick and Ed, diba?

We go from these wild swings.

Sobrang anti-China.

And then you go digong.

And then now we're going back to this again.

What we need is a kind of a healthy medium, right?

A kind of a golden medium.

That's not easy to get considering what's happened right now.

But I'm not sure we are making the best effort to move in that direction.

Having said that though, I still generally support the foreign policy direction of the current administration.

I think it's correct.

And I had a recent piece on Journal of Democracy.

That I think made some rounds and raised a lot of eyebrows about explaining why the Philippine foreign policy is moving in a very good direction under President Marquez Jr.

Despite all expectations that we'll be more like Duterte rather than his late father who was actually very proactive in the West Philippine Sea question.

So, yun lang.

It's a moving picture.

There's a lot of risk here.

But let me give a positive twist to it, spin to it.

Maybe this is part of the Philippines growing up.

I think it's time for the Philippines to also embrace more strategic policy.

Embrace more strategic risk.

If this is part of our maturation as an emerging middle power.

So that's the kind of positive spin I can give to all of this.

At some point in time, we have to grow up and take some risk and draw the line.

And it just happens that we're dealing with China.

But there are those who say that Asians are particular with the concept of saving face.

I mean, whatever you do, make sure that there's enough space for your antagonists or for the other side.

You have a little bit of leeway so hindi masyado mapahiya.

That way, you don't end up going to war or doing anything really bad.

Of course, it can't be the linchpin of foreign policy.

But in the end, do you think we've given enough leeway for saving face?

For China to back down without losing face?

Well, in fairness to President Marcos Jr., his rhetoric has been extremely cordial and statesman-like.

I mean, show me a single quote by President BBM who said something extremely negative about China or insulting.

I don't see anything there.

I think President Marcos Jr. has been extremely diplomatic and statesman-like.

He met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC last year.

If you look at the DFA Secretary, Secretary Manalo also, extremely, extremely courteous and very calibrated with his language.

Now, I don't want to criticize others, but the thing is that you also have other top officials who are sounding a little bit aggressive.

So, I don't know if China is seeing this as good cop, bad cop.

But my point is, in fairness, our top diplomat, which is the President, and our top ambassador to Beijing, our SFA, all of them, I think, have been sounding the good note.

It's not like there's not effort in that regard.

Nevertheless, when you hear some top officials in the Philippines saying that there's no point to diplomacy with China,

and then you have some maybe officials implying that China is kind of a bully or openly calling China as a bully,

you know, I'm an outspoken person, but I'm not an official.

I'm not a senior official or not yet, right?

So, I think maybe that's something that may talk to what you're saying, which is saving face and all of that.

But again, my point here is, I think it's also because we are trying to correct what happened during the Duterte administration.

Because during the Duterte administration, the President was, to quote a fellow ASEAN journalist, almost slavish in his rhetoric towards China.

So, I think what's happening is some of the other officials are taking things into their own hands

because they want to signal the Philippines is not a province of China, quote-unquote, right?

But then again, I just hope na once medyo tapos na yung airing of grievances and once we made it clear to China

that this is not the same administration, I hope more officials talk more like President BBM and Secretary Manalo

because I think that's a healthy way.

Now, having said that, I don't think that Asians are necessarily always nice to each other.

Just look at Korea and Japan, right?

I mean, look at what Koreans say.

I can give you, look at Singapore and Malaysia.

Look at Malaysia.

You know, I can go on and on, the history of how badly we Asians talk to each other.

So, it's not a monopoly of the Western or Middle Eastern people to talk badly.

And I think there's nothing Western with the Philippines also drawing the line.

And I'll tell you this.

I found it very interesting that just before Jokowi essentially passed on the chairmanship of ASEAN ahead of New York,

for the first time in the history of ASEAN, my stand-alone statement on the South China Sea,

expressing solidarity with us and saying that South China Sea, West Philippine Sea, is a common maritime sphere.

And then Jokowi was here in town just the other day talking about more maritime security cooperation.

President BBM is going to Vietnam before the end of this month.

Also talk about...

So, my point is, I heard the Prime Minister or two, I'm not gonna say sino, alam ni Patrick yan,

kinakritisize tayo ng ko.

But I also know there are leaders in ASEAN, Indonesia, Vietnam and more others,

who are not too unhappy with what we're doing and actually are open to more security cooperation with us.

So, I don't know which Asians we're talking about here because Asians, just like other people,

we're very diverse and there are different faces to us.

Sometimes we can have the angry face, sometimes we can have a happy face.

Parang kabuki yan, di ba?

So, I see the value to being nice.

But yung friends to all, enemy to none, medyo pang tourism department po yan.

Hindi yan pwede sa West Philippine.

Yun lang ang stance ko dyan.

As Bible said, there's a time for love, there's a time for peace.

Yun lang sa akin.

Okay. Nice talking to you, Richard.

Pasigitan ko isa pa.

Kasi, you only mentioned the one.

Responsive China to this sudden budgeting for building and construction sa West Philippine Sea.

Possibilities like cyber warfare or more aggressive positions and actions sa West Philippine Sea.

What are you looking at?

Could you give us more ideas of what could possibly happen?

How could China possibly respond?

And how far could China possibly go?

Nakita natin, I'll just give you a couple of examples.

One was, very quickly, remember yung may armada ng mga Chinese militia forces?

I think malapit ba yan sa Juan Felipe Reif?

Diba?

Yeah, exactly.

I mean, they have literally the biggest navy on earth.

Way bigger than United States.

Way bigger than all US allies.

I'm just saying, may eskalatory dominance ng China.

So if you escalated without preparation, may mas malaki silang itatapat sa'yo.

Diba?

Kung naglabas ka ng barel, may arma light sila.

Maglabas ka ng arma light, may RPG sila.

So yun yung tinatawag na eskalatory dynamics or dominance.

So if you're gonna slightly push the envelope, make sure hindi siya magpapamasad dun sa threshold kung saan China can bring in something bigger.

Because then we're gonna be in some bridge.

Then we're gonna be in some big trouble.

But kaya nga sabi ko, if you sequence it, unti here, unti dyan, you can play around this.

And slowly build up the Philippines position.

That's what Vietnam has been doing, and that's what kind of Malaysia has been doing.

But I'll tell you this.

I know that some people are implying the Malaysian Prime Minister kinda slightly criticized our position.

I heard that from some friends.

But let me tell you this.

Malaysia stood its ground in 2019, 2020.

Dunsa, West Kapila, Petronas.

China bashed them.

Vietnam pushed back.

But in the end, they prevailed.

So we also have many examples whereby magiging nga yung ibang bansa katulad ng China.

But if you keep on pushing the envelope, actually you can get away with it.

But there's one big difference.

Again, Patrick and Ed.

Malaysia's leaders, some of them, they didn't talk like the Philippines.

And they're not a US treaty ally.

And they're not having ETCA.

And they're not giving American bases close to Taiwan.

Do you get what I'm saying?

So may added element ng annoyance ang Pilipinas for China na wala sa mga Vietnamese at wala sa mga Malaysians.

And of course with the Vietnamese, meron silang partnership.

It's a party-to-party relationship.

After all, they're two communist countries.

Kaya ang kutob ko, it's very important to have a real special envoy.

Hindi yung mga self-appointed special envoy.

But someone who has the ear of President BBM but also is respected in China as someone who can be an interlocutor.

Maybe it could be one person, two person.

I mean kung buhay pa sila Ramos, I would have someone like President Ramos to do it again.

God bless his soul, right?

You need someone with that kind of gravitas and that kind of understanding of religion to do it.

Just to keep...

Hindi naman mawawala yung tension niyan.

Unfortunately, this is the value of tears you have to go through.

But you have to always keep it below a certain threshold.

In rhetoric and in operational risk levels.

Ang big black box sa akin is...

Ang hindi ko alam is, behind the scenes, anong mga reassurances na nakuha natin sa mga kano?

Or yung mga ibang aliado natin na pro-protektaan tayo once this go wrong?

I just hope we're not over-counting on America's assistance.

Because America is also bogged down in Ukraine still and also increasingly in the Middle East right now.

If you're following along.

I don't know how crazy the situation is also in other parts of the world.

So I'm just saying, hinahinay lang, step by step, we're getting there.

And lastly, let's not forget, inaayos na natin yung pag-asa.

May mga nabuild na tayong mga facilities diyan.

Unti-unti inaayos natin sa ayong insyol.

So I think we're on the right path.

Siguro wag muna tayo mag-sports...

Ano, sports mode muna.

Medyo echo mode, dere-derecho lang.

And then mamay na tayo mag-sports mode once we're ready for all this.

Yun lang sa akin. Yun lang sa akin.

Kaya over-correction is my concern.

If there's only one concern I have, it's over-correction.

Not correction.

Okay.

Pwede na natin pagkawala sa research.

Sorry Patrick!

Hindi, makulit lang tayo mag-isip.

Thank you so much guys for...

A lot of questions more, Richard.

But, you know, marami pa. Marami pa susunod.

Yeah, let's do something more often like this.

Yeah, yeah, definitely.

Hosea Fanon, view from Manila.

We're here in Watipus.

Salamat. God bless.

Salamat.

Talk to you soon.

Here, Watipus.

Alright guys, salamat. Pasensya na ako.

Sinama ko na lang kayo kasi hinahabol-habol natin ito.

Okay guys, talk to you mamay na lang. Habol natin ulit.

Back to work na naman ako.

Ang dami nangyayari ngayon in Taiwan and other parts of the world so I have to write on that.

Salamat. God bless.

And talk to you soon.