00:18.4
Well, geography is a big explanation
00:20.3
and geopolitics accordingly
00:22.2
Katulad ng mga vlogs natin before
00:24.4
pinag-usapan natin na
00:25.8
whatever happens in Taiwan
00:28.0
will have direct implications on the Philippines
00:29.6
First of all, because of the distance
00:33.9
If you look at Taipei from Manila
00:36.5
it's very, very close
00:37.8
In fact, Manila is closer to Taipei
00:39.7
than almost all major ASEAN capitals
00:42.5
You know, Vietnam is more than 2 hours away
00:45.1
Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are more than 3 hours away
00:48.2
Jakarta is almost 4 hours away
00:50.9
Bangkok is, again, more than 2 or 3 hours away
00:53.7
So I can go on and on and on
00:54.9
Mas malapit pa sa atin itong Hong Kong
00:56.4
and definitely mas malapit sa atin itong Taipei
00:58.1
So, the geography matters a lot
01:01.0
But, the thing with the Philippines is that
01:03.3
the seat of power is actually here in Luzon
01:05.9
And if you got Luzon's proximity to Taiwan
01:08.3
then the geography is even starker
01:12.6
Now, let me also give you some idea about
01:14.3
ano implication ito for
01:16.3
Philippine-China relations
01:17.8
and also Philippine-US relations
01:19.4
Pag tinignan mo yung ETCA basis
01:22.1
So, ito yung mga ETCA basis
01:23.2
Karamihan na mga bagong basis
01:25.7
na binigayin natin sa Amerika
01:27.4
sa ilalim na ETCA
01:28.5
or basis whereby the Americans
01:31.1
will have more access to
01:32.3
based on the ETCA
01:33.7
Ito yung mga northern parts of the Philippines
01:36.6
Sa Cagayan, sa Isabela
01:38.9
and increasingly we're looking at
01:41.2
also the Batanes area
01:42.6
and if you look at the Batanes area
01:44.1
it's super close to Taipei
01:45.9
Super close to Taipei
01:47.4
Look at this one for instance
01:50.5
So, if you look at the Mavulis
01:57.4
Kung saan meron tayong actually military base
02:00.5
Sobrang close siya sa Taiwan
02:04.8
over the past year or so
02:05.9
dinidevelop natin yung ating mga
02:07.4
military facilities dyan sa Mavulis
02:11.3
So, this is a picture of actually
02:12.6
ceremony we had in Mavulis
02:16.5
This is where you can see
02:19.5
what happens in Taiwan has direct implications
02:21.4
for the Philippines
02:24.0
pag magulo sa Taiwan
02:25.5
or kung tingin natin na pwede magulo sa Taiwan
02:26.6
or kung tingin natin na pwede magulo sa Taiwan
02:27.3
pwede magkaroon ng giyera over Taiwan
02:31.6
either Taiwan or China or both
02:33.4
are moving towards confrontation
02:36.2
ang laki ng epekto ito
02:37.8
dun sa ating mga calculations
02:42.7
and inevitably also the West Philippine Sea
02:45.5
pag ikaw ang China
02:47.8
hindi mo siniseparate ang nangyayari
02:50.0
sa West Philippine Sea
02:52.4
lahat yan kasama sa isang theater sa kanila yan
02:54.8
all of these are part of China's so-called
02:56.4
China's so-called
02:57.6
first island chain
03:03.5
down to Taiwan cross straits
03:05.2
down to South China Sea
03:06.2
West Philippine Sea
03:06.8
lahat yan isang theater yan for China
03:09.4
when ang Pilipinas
03:11.2
ay nagbibigay ng access to America
03:17.4
all the way potentially sa Batanes
03:20.6
pag tinigdan natin for instance
03:26.4
and all the way down to Palawan
03:27.7
in Bautista Air Base
03:31.6
kung ikaw ang China
03:33.1
maging worried ka talaga
03:34.3
and sa aking palagay
03:36.4
isa sa mga dahilan
03:37.5
na napaka-agresibo ang China sa Pilipinas
03:39.5
over the past few months
03:40.6
ng ilang beses na na-water cannon tayo ng China
03:43.1
ilang beses na na tinitreaten tayo ng military intervention
03:46.7
if nag-push tayo ng fortification ng ating facilities
03:49.1
dyan sa second tangosyo
03:50.5
kasi kung titignan mo
03:52.4
yung sa Ayunginsol
03:54.4
ang tagal na yan eh!
03:57.8
pero ngayon lang nag-iingay ng China ng big time
04:02.8
at kung titignan mo yung
04:05.8
ang tagal na rin yung ETCA na yan eh
04:06.8
diba? 2014 pa na-negotiate
04:07.8
pero ngayon lang sila nag-iingay ng sobra-sobra
04:11.8
ito'y dahil may malaking Taiwan aspect dyan
04:14.8
may malaking Taiwan aspect dyan
04:15.8
kasi sa aking palagay
04:16.8
ang China'y natatakot
04:19.8
ang gagawin ng Pilipinas
04:20.8
specifically ang gagawin ng BBM is
04:22.8
bibigyan yung US military
04:26.8
dun sa mga bases na napakalapit sa Taipei
04:31.8
pagdating sa Amerika
04:32.8
ang justification nila dito is
04:34.8
kung malakas tayo
04:35.8
in terms of yung mga cooperation natin sa Taiwan
04:39.8
yung presence natin sa region
04:42.8
then magdadalawang isip ang China
04:46.8
ang tawag po dyan is
04:49.8
kaya nga the Romans saying
04:50.8
if you want peace
04:53.8
pag-aarap mo isang bully
04:54.8
kung hindi niya mahina ka
04:55.8
or hindi ka lalaban
04:56.8
lalo ka nabubulin
04:58.8
pero kung alam niya na
04:59.8
pwede kang lumaban
05:00.8
at hindi lang pwede kang lumaban
05:02.8
actually pwede ka rin mag
05:04.8
hurt back sa kanya
05:05.8
yung tinatawag na poison stream
05:08.8
porcupine strategy
05:10.8
yes of course mas malakas ang China
05:12.8
pero kung alam nila
05:13.8
there will be a major cost
05:14.8
if ever they invade Taiwan
05:15.8
then hindi nila gagawin yan
05:17.8
that was exactly the problem with Ukraine
05:19.8
kaya nga yung mga nagsasabi na
05:20.8
ang Pilipinas or Taiwan magiging Ukraine 2.0
05:22.8
hindi nila nalang pinagsasabi na
05:23.8
hindi nila nalang pinagsasabi nila
05:24.8
or actually mga sinungaling mga ito
05:25.8
at propagandist mga ito
05:29.8
because Ukraine had no military alliance
05:33.8
katulad ng Pilipinas
05:34.8
with any major power
05:35.8
and unlike Taiwan
05:36.8
it didn't even have a de facto alliance
05:39.8
or kind of a secret kind of
05:41.8
high levels military cooperation
05:43.8
with any of the major powers
05:44.8
well behind the scenes alam natin
05:45.8
Taiwan has that with the United States
05:47.8
and they're buying major weapons
05:49.8
from the United States
05:50.8
and the other big difference
05:51.8
between Taiwan and Ukraine
05:53.8
Taiwan is actually where
05:55.8
the world's most important
05:57.8
modern technology is being built
06:00.8
which is what runs everything
06:01.8
that we're using right now
06:06.8
so the United States has an interest
06:08.8
in Taiwan not being invaded
06:10.8
and definitely not being conquered by China
06:12.8
given that TSMC of Taiwan
06:14.8
is responsible for what
06:15.8
more than third of total semiconductors
06:18.8
and more than 90%
06:19.8
of high-end semiconductors in the world
06:21.8
so Taiwan is just so important
06:22.8
that the US has an interest
06:25.8
in making sure that it will not be invaded
06:27.8
by or occupied by China
06:29.8
and that's why papasok ang Pilipinas
06:32.8
because ang lapit natin sa Taiwan
06:34.8
and may mga military bases tayo
06:36.8
katulad nung sinisabi kong mga bullies
06:38.8
but also lower down
06:39.8
if you look at in Cagayan, Isabela, etc
06:41.8
ang lapit natin sa Taiwan eh
06:43.8
at least sa Pashi Channel
06:45.8
or ang tinatawag natin na Luzon Straits
06:51.8
there's just no scenario whereby
06:53.8
pwede maging neutral ang Pilipinas
06:55.8
sa sobrang lapit natin sa Taiwan
06:58.8
ang laki ng interest ng mga higanteng bansa
07:01.8
na ang Pilipinas ay magsaside sa kanila
07:04.8
so it's either you side with China
07:06.8
or you side with the United States
07:08.8
there's no way around it
07:10.8
I don't know how the siding with China will work
07:12.8
because I think the siding with China will only work
07:14.8
if totally i-cancel na natin yung alliance natin
07:17.8
with the United States
07:19.8
and magtotally neutral country tayo katulad ng
07:23.8
well back in the day it was Sweden and Finland
07:26.8
but you know think about
07:27.8
I don't know Switzerland or something like that
07:28.8
pero even yun medyo
07:30.8
mahabang debate yung issue ng neutrality
07:34.8
hindi pwede na sasabi ng Pilipinas
07:36.8
na maging neutral lang kami
07:37.8
words are not gonna be enough
07:40.8
you're gonna look at actions
07:41.8
and you're gonna look at scenarios
07:43.8
and as far as actions are concerned
07:46.8
ang tinitignan ng China ngayon is this
07:49.8
binibigyan natin ng
07:50.8
etka base sa mga Amerikano
07:52.8
sa pinaka north ng Philippines
07:54.8
hindi yung super north of Philippines
07:56.8
which is like Mavulis for instance
07:58.8
very north na close to Taiwan
08:01.8
now clearly may operational implications yan
08:03.8
kung ikaw ang China
08:04.8
gustong sumugot sa Taipei
08:07.8
from north tutulungan ng Japan
08:11.8
because napakalapit ang Ryokyo Islands
08:13.8
and Okinawa sa north of Taiwan
08:16.8
and then alam din niya yung Pilipinas
08:18.8
na katulad ng Japan ay isang treaty ally
08:20.8
pwede rin tumulong sa US
08:21.8
by giving access to Americans
08:23.8
then automatically
08:25.8
tatratuin tayo as enemy
08:29.8
but of course China is smart
08:30.8
China is not gonna wait
08:32.8
for the situation whereby
08:34.8
sobrang dami ng mga US bases
08:36.8
to the north and to the south of Taiwan
08:38.8
so as early as right now
08:40.8
etong ang kotob ko
08:41.8
the reason why sobrang aggressive yung China
08:44.8
dyan sa West Philippines
08:45.8
is because gusto nila tayong takutin
08:47.8
and I think their concern is that
08:50.8
baka bibigyan natin ng sobrang daming military bases
08:53.8
sa mga Amerikanos
08:55.8
na hindi lang malapit sa West Philippine Sea
08:57.8
pero malapit rin sa Taiwan
08:59.8
yun talaga yung malaking worry ng China ngayon
09:03.8
that's actually something interesting for the Philippines
09:06.8
because ang pwedeng gawin ng Pilipinas
09:09.8
again in theory lang yun
09:10.8
is sasabihin niya
09:11.8
okay ganito na lang
09:13.8
hindi ko masabi na maging neutral ako totally
09:15.8
kasi treaty alliance eh
09:17.8
allies cannot be neutral during time of war
09:19.8
kung may mga namatay na Amerikano dyan
09:21.8
na may giyera sa Taiwan
09:22.8
hindi mo pwede sabihin
09:23.8
ay sorry ha neutral kami
09:24.8
hindi mo pwede sabihin yan
09:26.8
so either you're with us or against us
09:29.8
you have to choose
09:33.8
ang choice mo ngayon yung US
09:34.8
because US ally ka
09:37.8
ang pwede sabihin ng Pilipinas
09:39.8
pwede sabihin ni BBM ay ganito
09:43.8
syempre US ally kami
09:44.8
at gusto namin malakas yung situation namin sa West Philippine Sea
09:48.8
aminin natin mga kay Darian
09:51.8
kung mag-isa lang ang Pilipinas
09:52.8
katapat mo ang China
09:55.8
kaya nga walang kwenta yung sinasabi ng mga ibang ka DDS natin dyan na
09:58.8
hindi diplomacy lang tayo
09:59.8
walang kwenta ang diplomacy kung wala kang leverage
10:01.8
kung wala kang backup
10:02.8
kung mag-isa mo lang
10:03.8
tapos mahina ka maliit ka lang
10:04.8
hindi ka sarang respeto yun
10:05.8
kaya ano pa nang Digong
10:06.8
walang binigay na
10:08.8
walang binigay na compromise ang China
10:11.8
o anong nakuha ni Digong sa China
10:16.8
lalong lumalang ang situation eh yung
10:18.8
nangyari sa Reed Bank
10:20.8
nung nangyari sa Juan Felipe Riff
10:21.8
lahat yan nangyari sa panahon ng Digong
10:22.8
kasi hindi siya nangyari respeto
10:24.8
dahil mahina tayo
10:27.8
ang pwedeng gawin ng Pilipinas ngayon is
10:30.8
and ididikit ko ngayon dun sa situation sa Taiwan ngayon
10:37.8
both Taiwan and China
10:39.8
ay nasa isang deadlock situation
10:42.8
but the part of me feels na
10:44.8
there's a good chance na
10:49.8
konti mag-stabilize yung
10:51.8
Taiwan-China relations
10:54.8
kasi katulad ang sinabi natin dun sa
10:56.8
unang bahagi ng ating vlog
10:58.8
na unfortunately nakot
11:00.8
dahil sa internet connection
11:04.8
kasi both Xi Jinping and Lai
11:06.8
ayaw nila ng giyera din
11:08.8
although may pressure sa kanila
11:10.8
to show toughness
11:11.8
both of them are also under pressure
11:14.8
dahil sa economic problems sila at home
11:17.8
in the case naman of Lai
11:19.8
most likely he'll not control the legislature
11:21.8
and as early as now
11:22.8
he's looking at a unity government
11:24.8
and he's looking at making certain concessions
11:26.8
para to win over the opposition
11:29.8
meaning yung mga more pro-China
11:31.8
or at least less anti-China elements
11:33.8
so there's some chance that actually
11:35.8
behind the scenes
11:36.8
there'll be efforts at stabilizing the relations
11:42.8
has been in China
11:43.8
ganyan ganyan ganyan
11:45.8
Taiwan sabihin niya malakas
11:46.8
ganyan ganyan ganyan
11:47.8
but actually behind the scenes
11:50.8
rationality to actually
11:52.8
have the upper hand
11:53.8
not necessarily prevail
11:54.8
but have the upper hand
11:56.8
ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas
11:57.8
anong gagawin mo ngayon?
11:58.8
kung ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas ganyan
11:59.8
ang gagawin mo nga ay ganito
12:06.8
ayon ng China daw manalang DPP
12:07.8
pero nanalang naman ang DPP
12:09.8
dahil karamihan ang Taiwanese din naman
12:11.8
na ayaw nila rin mag-realify sa China
12:12.8
but the good thing is
12:15.8
both China and Taiwan
12:16.8
ayaw nila nalang giyera
12:17.8
despite all the rhetoric
12:18.8
so kung ikaw ang Pilipinas
12:20.8
ganito ang magiging diskarte mo
12:21.8
sasabihin mo sa China
12:24.8
andyan yung alyansa namin sa Amerika
12:27.8
hindi matatanggal yan
12:28.8
tsaka hindi naman kami tanga
12:33.8
because alam namin kung
12:34.8
one on one lang tayo
12:37.8
no match ang Pilipinas sa China
12:39.8
pero kung may backup tayo
12:40.8
medyo may konting leverage tayo
12:44.8
ang pwedeng gawin natin is
12:46.8
yung sa mga bases
12:47.8
ng pinaka-nortang Philippines
12:48.8
huwag natin bigay ng
12:53.8
at actually pwede mo gawin yan
12:55.8
on so many levels
12:59.8
so sa ilalim ng ETCA
13:01.8
actually ang mga Amerikano
13:02.8
magkakaroon sila ng permiso
13:04.8
na mag pre-position
13:06.8
pre-position ng mga weapon systems
13:08.8
so pwede sila maglagay ng mga malalaking armas
13:11.8
now pag sinasabi kong armas
13:13.8
hindi lang ito mga tanke
13:15.8
pwede mga patriot missile systems
13:17.8
pwede HIMARS systems
13:18.8
pwede very very advanced military systems
13:21.8
ang pwede gawin ng Pilipinas siguro
13:23.8
is sasabihin niya
13:25.8
sige papayagan pa rin namin yung mga kano
13:27.8
na maglalagay sila ng mga sundalo dyan
13:29.8
pero hindi namin papayagan ng mga kano
13:31.8
na maglalagay ng napakalaki ng mga weapon systems
13:34.8
na pwedeng gamitin
13:38.8
and at the same time
13:40.8
ililimit natin yung numbers ng mga kano
13:42.8
na pwede mag deploy
13:44.8
dyan sa mga ETCA bases sa north
13:48.8
off limit ang Mavulis
13:50.8
off limit yung mga pinaka mga northern military bases sa Batanes
13:54.8
so you can give a 3 level mini concessions to China
13:58.8
etong kukunin mo sa China
13:59.8
sasabihin mo sa China
14:04.8
alam ko magingingay ka
14:06.8
gets mo naman diba
14:09.8
babaway ka may bibigyan ka
14:10.8
naman ng mga Amerikano
14:11.8
ng malalaking bases sa north
14:12.8
malapit sa Taiwan
14:13.8
lagot kayo dyan sa Taiwan
14:15.8
pwede natin sabihin
14:17.8
ang gawin mo naman ngayon
14:18.8
pag na fortify namin yung Sierra Madre
14:21.8
dyan sa Yung Inchol
14:23.8
huwag kayong mag gulo masyado
14:25.8
huwag kayong masyadong bully bully dyan diba
14:27.8
at gagawa kami ng mga facilities dyan sa Pag-aasa ulit
14:30.8
at saka mga ibang awak namin dyan
14:33.8
huwag kayong masyadong gulo
14:35.8
on the record lahat
14:37.8
pero behind the scenes pwede mo i-negotiate yan eh
14:39.8
so dito ko nakikita
14:43.8
paano natin pwede leverage
14:45.8
bilang isang Pilipino
14:47.8
ang situation ngayon sa Taiwan
14:49.8
in the interest of the Philippine national interest
14:52.8
and sa aking palagay
14:56.8
hindi naman ibig sabihin yan na
14:58.8
we're gonna leave the Taiwanese to themselves
15:00.8
Taiwan will continue to develop its deterrence capability
15:02.8
Japan will continue to help Taiwan in one way or another
15:05.8
US will continue to help them
15:07.8
pero pagdating sa Pilipinas
15:08.8
we can leverage this also to make sure na
15:10.8
we have a better situation in the West Philippine Sea
15:12.8
or at the very least
15:13.8
ang pwede natin gawin dito is
15:15.8
i-tone down natin yung tensions ng konti
15:17.8
kasi kung lahat tayo maximalist
15:23.8
war games ng war games
15:26.8
bigyan natin ng laking access ng Amerika sa south ng Taiwan
15:29.8
yung Japan naman papasok din
15:30.8
wala talagang ano talagang ano tayo
15:33.8
parang dagulan na yan diba
15:35.8
so I think we can be part of a de-escalation mechanism
15:38.8
whereby we can tone things down a little bit
15:40.8
and give diplomacy a chance
15:42.8
so see that's my point eh
15:44.8
I am for diplomacy
15:46.8
but I'm never for diplomacy from a position of weakness
15:48.8
because diplomacy from a position of weakness is submission
15:51.8
and ang mga syunga lang gusto mag-submit
15:57.8
I am for diplomacy but from a position of strength
15:59.8
and I'm for diplomacy with smart thinking
16:03.8
yun pong inaanap natin dito
16:06.8
on that note thank you very much mga kamerada
16:08.8
I hope you have a slight idea
16:10.8
of the bigger geopolitical picture here
16:13.8
bilang mga Pilipino
16:14.8
dapat may pakit tayo sa nangyayari sa cross-strait relations
16:17.8
sa pagkita ng Taipei at China
16:19.8
because sa aking palagay
16:21.8
may direct link ng kinalaman neto
16:23.8
dun sa ETCA strategy natin
16:26.8
at may direct ng kinalaman neto
16:28.8
dun sa mga pwede natin gawin diplomasya at negosasyon
16:33.8
dyan sa West Philippine Sea
16:35.8
lahat po yan ay related to each other
16:37.8
hindi po yan isolated cases
16:41.8
dapat po mag-integrated tayo mag-isip
16:44.8
at bilang isang you know
16:46.8
bilang isang independent
16:47.8
truly independent
16:48.8
of course may aliadot ka
16:50.8
pero hindi ibig sabihin na susunga-sunga ka
16:52.8
you have to think for your own national interest
16:54.8
and you have to contribute also to regional tensions de-escalation
16:58.8
so I am for diplomacy
17:00.8
I am for de-escalation
17:01.8
I am for the Philippine national interest
17:03.8
and I am for a smart strategy in dealing with this
17:06.8
so yun ang sinasabi ko
17:08.8
yun ang wala dun sa mga ibang makapili
17:11.8
yung mga ibang feeling expert
17:13.8
kasi hindi nila alam yung mga nuances
17:15.8
hindi nila alam yung itong mga malilitang bagay
17:17.8
technicalities yan eh
17:18.8
parang sa kotse yan
17:19.8
yung mga alam mo yung mga nananda ng YouTube
17:21.8
akala nila alam nila yung kotse
17:22.8
alam lang nila yung mga basic stats
17:24.8
pero kung expert ka talaga sa kotse
17:26.8
you will see certain small details na hindi mo mahanap sa YouTube University
17:29.8
ganun din po ang geopolitics
17:31.8
there are many little nuances here and there
17:33.8
so it's not diplomacy versus war
17:36.8
ang mga nagsasabi lang yan
17:37.8
yung mga walang alam
17:40.8
it's about diplomacy under what conditions
17:44.8
diplomacy with what strategy
17:46.8
diplomacy with what mindset
17:48.8
so I am 100% for diplomacy
17:50.8
but for smart diplomacy
17:53.8
and for diplomacy that serves the national interest of the Filipino people
17:58.8
on that note maraming salamat mga kameta
18:00.8
I hope you enjoyed this analysis that we made
18:03.8
now down the road God willing
18:05.8
I'm hoping to do more like high tech
18:07.8
and I don't know kung may budget or something like that
18:09.8
we'll try to do analysis where I can show all of these things to you in graphics
18:13.8
like 3D style may ganyan may mapa kita ko sa iyo
18:15.8
para mas ma-appreciate yung ginagawa ko
18:17.8
para at least ngayon conceptually na i-gets niya saan tayo galing
18:20.8
so when I make analysis of conflicts and issues
18:23.8
I look at the domestic politics
18:25.8
I look at the international politics
18:27.8
I look at the geography
18:28.8
I look at our national interest
18:30.8
I look at diplomacy
18:31.8
I look at psychology
18:32.8
I look at 10-12 different variables
18:34.8
and how they interact
18:35.8
this is next level chess game
18:37.8
that's how you do proper geopolitical analysis
18:39.8
thank you very much mga kameta
18:41.8
God bless and talk to you soon
