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Wait lang, huwag kayong mag-drama

Ito na, okay na, okay na, okay na

Ayos na, okay

May on kasi ng TV doon

Okay, ito na

Let's go on to the Philippines part

Okay, bakit dapat may pakit tayo sa Pilipinas

pagdating sa pangyayari dyan sa Taiwan?

Right?

Well, geography is a big explanation

and geopolitics accordingly

Katulad ng mga vlogs natin before

pinag-usapan natin na

whatever happens in Taiwan

will have direct implications on the Philippines

First of all, because of the distance

If you look at Taipei from Manila

it's very, very close

In fact, Manila is closer to Taipei

than almost all major ASEAN capitals

You know, Vietnam is more than 2 hours away

Singapore and Kuala Lumpur are more than 3 hours away

Jakarta is almost 4 hours away

Bangkok is, again, more than 2 or 3 hours away

So I can go on and on and on

Mas malapit pa sa atin itong Hong Kong

and definitely mas malapit sa atin itong Taipei

So, the geography matters a lot

But, the thing with the Philippines is that

the seat of power is actually here in Luzon

And if you got Luzon's proximity to Taiwan

then the geography is even starker

Right?

Now, let me also give you some idea about

ano implication ito for

Philippine-China relations

and also Philippine-US relations

Pag tinignan mo yung ETCA basis

Okay?

So, ito yung mga ETCA basis

Karamihan na mga bagong basis

na binigayin natin sa Amerika

sa ilalim na ETCA

or basis whereby the Americans

will have more access to

based on the ETCA

Ito yung mga northern parts of the Philippines

Sa Cagayan, sa Isabela

and increasingly we're looking at

also the Batanes area

and if you look at the Batanes area

it's super close to Taipei

Super close to Taipei

Look at this one for instance

So, if you look at the Mavulis

island

Kung saan meron tayong actually military base

Sobrang close siya sa Taiwan

and the thing is

over the past year or so

dinidevelop natin yung ating mga

military facilities dyan sa Mavulis

So, this is a picture of actually

ceremony we had in Mavulis

So, yun

This is where you can see

what happens in Taiwan has direct implications

for the Philippines

because

pag magulo sa Taiwan

or kung tingin natin na pwede magulo sa Taiwan

or kung tingin natin na pwede magulo sa Taiwan

pwede magkaroon ng giyera over Taiwan

or tingin natin

either Taiwan or China or both

are moving towards confrontation

then immediately

ang laki ng epekto ito

dun sa ating mga calculations

pagdating sa

ETCA

and inevitably also the West Philippine Sea

kasi

pag ikaw ang China

hindi mo siniseparate ang nangyayari

sa West Philippine Sea

sa nangyayari

sa Taiwan

lahat yan kasama sa isang theater sa kanila yan

right?

all of these are part of China's so-called

China's so-called

first island chain

right?

so from

East China Sea

Japan

Okinawa

down to Taiwan cross straits

down to South China Sea

West Philippine Sea

lahat yan isang theater yan for China

so

when ang Pilipinas

ay nagbibigay ng access to America

dun sa ETCA

ng mga bases

from Cagayan

and Isabela

all the way potentially sa Batanes

and then down

pag tinigdan natin for instance

sa Pampanga area

Pasa Air Base

and all the way down to Palawan

in Bautista Air Base

lahat yan

di ba?

kung ikaw ang China

maging worried ka talaga

and sa aking palagay

isa sa mga dahilan

na napaka-agresibo ang China sa Pilipinas

over the past few months

ng ilang beses na na-water cannon tayo ng China

ilang beses na na tinitreaten tayo ng military intervention

if nag-push tayo ng fortification ng ating facilities

dyan sa second tangosyo

kasi kung titignan mo

um

yung sa Ayunginsol

ang tagal na yan eh!

1998 pa yan

nandyan na tayo

pero ngayon lang nag-iingay ng China ng big time

right?

ah

at kung titignan mo yung

um

ETCA

ang tagal na rin yung ETCA na yan eh

diba? 2014 pa na-negotiate

pero ngayon lang sila nag-iingay ng sobra-sobra

at para sa akin

ito'y dahil may malaking Taiwan aspect dyan

may malaking Taiwan aspect dyan

kasi sa aking palagay

ang China'y natatakot

na

ang gagawin ng Pilipinas

specifically ang gagawin ng BBM is

bibigyan yung US military

ng

maraming access

dun sa mga bases na napakalapit sa Taipei

Taiwan

now obviously

pagdating sa Amerika

ang justification nila dito is

kung malakas tayo

in terms of yung mga cooperation natin sa Taiwan

kung

yung presence natin sa region

ay malakas

then magdadalawang isip ang China

na sumugod sa

sa Taiwan

ang tawag po dyan is

deterrence

right?

kaya nga the Romans saying

if you want peace

prepare for war

because

pag-aarap mo isang bully

kung hindi niya mahina ka

or hindi ka lalaban

lalo ka nabubulin

diba?

pero kung alam niya na

pwede kang lumaban

at hindi lang pwede kang lumaban

actually pwede ka rin mag

you know

hurt back sa kanya

yung tinatawag na poison stream

or tinatawag na

porcupine strategy

yes of course mas malakas ang China

pero kung alam nila

there will be a major cost

if ever they invade Taiwan

then hindi nila gagawin yan

that was

that was exactly the problem with Ukraine

kaya nga yung mga nagsasabi na

ang Pilipinas or Taiwan magiging Ukraine 2.0

hindi nila nalang pinagsasabi na

hindi nila nalang pinagsasabi nila

or actually mga sinungaling mga ito

at propagandist mga ito

because Ukraine had no military alliance

katulad ng Pilipinas

with any major power

and unlike Taiwan

it didn't even have a de facto alliance

or kind of a secret kind of

high levels military cooperation

with any of the major powers

well behind the scenes alam natin

Taiwan has that with the United States

and they're buying major weapons

from the United States

and the other big difference

between Taiwan and Ukraine

is that

Taiwan is actually where

the world's most important

modern technology is being built

semiconductors

which is what runs everything

that we're using right now

right

computers

cars

weapon systems

so the United States has an interest

in Taiwan not being invaded

and definitely not being conquered by China

given that TSMC of Taiwan

is responsible for what

more than third of total semiconductors

in the world

and more than 90%

of high-end semiconductors in the world

so Taiwan is just so important

that the US has an interest

in making sure that it will not be invaded

by or occupied by China

and that's why papasok ang Pilipinas

because ang lapit natin sa Taiwan

and may mga military bases tayo

katulad nung sinisabi kong mga bullies

but also lower down

if you look at in Cagayan, Isabela, etc

ang lapit natin sa Taiwan eh

at least sa Pashi Channel

or ang tinatawag natin na Luzon Straits

so walang

so

there's just no scenario whereby

pwede maging neutral ang Pilipinas

sa sobrang lapit natin sa Taiwan

ang laki ng interest ng mga higanteng bansa

na ang Pilipinas ay magsaside sa kanila

so it's either you side with China

or you side with the United States

there's no way around it

right

I don't know how the siding with China will work

because I think the siding with China will only work

if totally i-cancel na natin yung alliance natin

with the United States

right

and magtotally neutral country tayo katulad ng

well

well back in the day it was Sweden and Finland

but you know think about

I don't know Switzerland or something like that

pero even yun medyo

mahabang debate yung issue ng neutrality

but

yun nga eh

hindi pwede na sasabi ng Pilipinas

na maging neutral lang kami

words are not gonna be enough

if you're China

you're gonna look at actions

and you're gonna look at scenarios

and as far as actions are concerned

ang tinitignan ng China ngayon is this

binibigyan natin ng

etka base sa mga Amerikano

sa pinaka north ng Philippines

hindi yung super north of Philippines

which is like Mavulis for instance

but at least

very north na close to Taiwan

right

now clearly may operational implications yan

kung ikaw ang China

gustong sumugot sa Taipei

and then alam mo

from north tutulungan ng Japan

ang Taiwan

because napakalapit ang Ryokyo Islands

and Okinawa sa north of Taiwan

and then alam din niya yung Pilipinas

na katulad ng Japan ay isang treaty ally

pwede rin tumulong sa US

by giving access to Americans

if not more

then automatically

tatratuin tayo as enemy

right

but of course China is smart

China is not gonna wait

for the situation whereby

sobrang dami ng mga US bases

to the north and to the south of Taiwan

so as early as right now

etong ang kotob ko

the reason why sobrang aggressive yung China

dyan sa West Philippines

is because gusto nila tayong takutin

and I think their concern is that

baka bibigyan natin ng sobrang daming military bases

sa mga Amerikanos

na hindi lang malapit sa West Philippine Sea

pero malapit rin sa Taiwan

yun talaga yung malaking worry ng China ngayon

now for me

in theory

that's actually something interesting for the Philippines

bakit ka mo?

because ang pwedeng gawin ng Pilipinas

in theory

again in theory lang yun

is sasabihin niya

okay ganito na lang

hindi ko masabi na maging neutral ako totally

kasi treaty alliance eh

allies cannot be neutral during time of war

kung may mga namatay na Amerikano dyan

na may giyera sa Taiwan

hindi mo pwede sabihin

ay sorry ha neutral kami

hindi mo pwede sabihin yan

kasi aliado kayo

so either you're with us or against us

when war comes

you have to choose

right

and de facto

ang choice mo ngayon yung US

because US ally ka

but

ang pwede sabihin ng Pilipinas

pwede sabihin ni BBM ay ganito

okay

hindi ko

syempre US ally kami

at gusto namin malakas yung situation namin sa West Philippine Sea

kasi kung

aminin natin mga kay Darian

kung mag-isa lang ang Pilipinas

katapat mo ang China

good luck sayo

kaya nga walang kwenta yung sinasabi ng mga ibang ka DDS natin dyan na

hindi diplomacy lang tayo

walang kwenta ang diplomacy kung wala kang leverage

kung wala kang backup

kung mag-isa mo lang

tapos mahina ka maliit ka lang

hindi ka sarang respeto yun

kaya ano pa nang Digong

walang binigay na

walang binigay na compromise ang China

o anong nakuha ni Digong sa China

Pogo

diba

lalong lumalang ang situation eh yung

nangyari sa Reed Bank

nung 2019

nung nangyari sa Juan Felipe Riff

lahat yan nangyari sa panahon ng Digong

kasi hindi siya nangyari respeto

dahil mahina tayo

on our own

so

ang pwedeng gawin ng Pilipinas ngayon is

and ididikit ko ngayon dun sa situation sa Taiwan ngayon

dahil

both Taiwan and China

ay nasa isang deadlock situation

but the part of me feels na

there's a good chance na

konti mag-stabilize yung

Taiwan-China relations

bakit nga ba?

kasi katulad ang sinabi natin dun sa

unang bahagi ng ating vlog

na unfortunately nakot

dahil sa internet connection

third world

ah

kasi both Xi Jinping and Lai

ayaw nila ng giyera din

although may pressure sa kanila

to show toughness

both of them are also under pressure

not to go to war

dahil sa economic problems sila at home

ah

in the case naman of Lai

most likely he'll not control the legislature

and as early as now

he's looking at a unity government

and he's looking at making certain concessions

para to win over the opposition

meaning yung mga more pro-China

or at least less anti-China elements

so there's some chance that actually

behind the scenes

there'll be efforts at stabilizing the relations

so

on TV

on screen

sa newspapers

has been in China

ganyan ganyan ganyan

Taiwan

Taiwan sabihin niya malakas

ganyan ganyan ganyan

but actually behind the scenes

I expect

both sides

rationality to actually

ah

have the upper hand

not necessarily prevail

but have the upper hand

so kung

ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas

anong gagawin mo ngayon?

kung ikaw ay nasa Pilipinas ganyan

ang gagawin mo nga ay ganito

ang sasabihin mo

okay

eto na

nangyari na

okay

ayon ng China daw manalang DPP

pero nanalang naman ang DPP

dahil karamihan ang Taiwanese din naman

na ayaw nila rin mag-realify sa China

but the good thing is

both sides

both China and Taiwan

ayaw nila nalang giyera

despite all the rhetoric

so kung ikaw ang Pilipinas

ganito ang magiging diskarte mo

sasabihin mo sa China

okay

andyan yung alyansa namin sa Amerika

andyan yung ETCA

hindi matatanggal yan

tsaka hindi naman kami tanga

I'm sorry

hindi naman kami

diba unwise

diba

because alam namin kung

one on one lang tayo

no match tayo

no match ang Pilipinas sa China

one on one

pero kung may backup tayo

medyo may konting leverage tayo

okay

but

ang pwedeng gawin natin is

yung sa mga bases

ng pinaka-nortang Philippines

huwag natin bigay ng

masyadong akses

ang mga kano

at actually pwede mo gawin yan

on so many levels

mga kameta

so sa ilalim ng ETCA

actually ang mga Amerikano

magkakaroon sila ng permiso

na mag pre-position

pre-position ng mga weapon systems

so pwede sila maglagay ng mga malalaking armas

now pag sinasabi kong armas

hindi lang ito mga tanke

or aeroplano

pwede mga patriot missile systems

pwede HIMARS systems

pwede very very advanced military systems

ang pwede gawin ng Pilipinas siguro

is sasabihin niya

sige papayagan pa rin namin yung mga kano

na maglalagay sila ng mga sundalo dyan

pero hindi namin papayagan ng mga kano

na maglalagay ng napakalaki ng mga weapon systems

na pwedeng gamitin

in case of

in case of

guerra

and at the same time

ililimit natin yung numbers ng mga kano

na pwede mag deploy

dyan sa mga ETCA bases sa north

and

dagdag pa dyan

off limit ang Mavulis

off limit yung mga pinaka mga northern military bases sa Batanes

so you can give a 3 level mini concessions to China

kapalit nun

etong kukunin mo sa China

sasabihin mo sa China

oy

baka naman

alam ko magingingay ka

pero baka naman

gets mo naman diba

kasi kung ano ka

babaway ka may bibigyan ka

naman ng mga Amerikano

ng malalaking bases sa north

malapit sa Taiwan

lagot kayo dyan sa Taiwan

pwede natin sabihin

baka naman

ang gawin mo naman ngayon

pag na fortify namin yung Sierra Madre

dyan sa Yung Inchol

huwag kayong mag gulo masyado

huwag kayong masyadong bully bully dyan diba

at gagawa kami ng mga facilities dyan sa Pag-aasa ulit

at saka mga ibang awak namin dyan

huwag kayong masyadong gulo

of course again

on the record lahat

matapang ganun

pero behind the scenes pwede mo i-negotiate yan eh

so dito ko nakikita

paano natin pwede leverage

bilang isang Pilipino

ang situation ngayon sa Taiwan

in the interest of the Philippine national interest

and sa aking palagay

sa aking palagay

hindi naman ibig sabihin yan na

we're gonna leave the Taiwanese to themselves

Taiwan will continue to develop its deterrence capability

Japan will continue to help Taiwan in one way or another

US will continue to help them

pero pagdating sa Pilipinas

we can leverage this also to make sure na

we have a better situation in the West Philippine Sea

or at the very least

ang pwede natin gawin dito is

i-tone down natin yung tensions ng konti

kasi kung lahat tayo maximalist

yung China

war games ng war games

tayo naman

bigyan natin ng laking access ng Amerika sa south ng Taiwan

yung Japan naman papasok din

wala talagang ano talagang ano tayo

eto na

parang dagulan na yan diba

so I think we can be part of a de-escalation mechanism

whereby we can tone things down a little bit

and give diplomacy a chance

so see that's my point eh

I am for diplomacy

but I'm never for diplomacy from a position of weakness

because diplomacy from a position of weakness is submission

and ang mga syunga lang gusto mag-submit

or worst

makapili

I am for diplomacy but from a position of strength

and I'm for diplomacy with smart thinking

yun pong inaanap natin dito

alright

on that note thank you very much mga kamerada

I hope you have a slight idea

of the bigger geopolitical picture here

at bakit

bilang mga Pilipino

dapat may pakit tayo sa nangyayari sa cross-strait relations

sa pagkita ng Taipei at China

because sa aking palagay

may direct link ng kinalaman neto

dun sa ETCA strategy natin

at may direct ng kinalaman neto

dun sa mga pwede natin gawin diplomasya at negosasyon

with China

dyan sa West Philippine Sea

lahat po yan ay related to each other

hindi po yan isolated cases

dapat po mag-integrated tayo mag-isip

at bilang isang you know

bilang isang independent

truly independent

of course may aliadot ka

pero hindi ibig sabihin na susunga-sunga ka

you have to think for your own national interest

and you have to contribute also to regional tensions de-escalation

so I am for diplomacy

I am for de-escalation

I am for the Philippine national interest

and I am for a smart strategy in dealing with this

so yun ang sinasabi ko

yun ang wala dun sa mga ibang makapili

yung mga ibang feeling expert

kasi hindi nila alam yung mga nuances

hindi nila alam yung itong mga malilitang bagay

technicalities yan eh

parang sa kotse yan

yung mga alam mo yung mga nananda ng YouTube

akala nila alam nila yung kotse

alam lang nila yung mga basic stats

pero kung expert ka talaga sa kotse

you will see certain small details na hindi mo mahanap sa YouTube University

ganun din po ang geopolitics

there are many little nuances here and there

so it's not diplomacy versus war

ang mga nagsasabi lang yan

yung mga walang alam

or mga makapili

or worse diba

it's about diplomacy under what conditions

diplomacy with what strategy

diplomacy with what mindset

so I am 100% for diplomacy

but for smart diplomacy

right

and for diplomacy that serves the national interest of the Filipino people

on that note maraming salamat mga kameta

I hope you enjoyed this analysis that we made

now down the road God willing

I'm hoping to do more like high tech

and I don't know kung may budget or something like that

we'll try to do analysis where I can show all of these things to you in graphics

like 3D style may ganyan may mapa kita ko sa iyo

para mas ma-appreciate yung ginagawa ko

para at least ngayon conceptually na i-gets niya saan tayo galing

so when I make analysis of conflicts and issues

I look at the domestic politics

I look at the international politics

I look at the geography

I look at our national interest

I look at diplomacy

I look at psychology

I look at 10-12 different variables

and how they interact

this is next level chess game

that's how you do proper geopolitical analysis

thank you very much mga kameta

God bless and talk to you soon