00:34.3
So I think as far as China is concerned, first of all, they're scrambling their head.
00:38.1
How did we go from Duterte who said, I love China, China will protect me and all of that
00:42.6
to this situation whereby you have a president who's doubling down on security cooperation
00:47.7
with the West, joint patrols, going to the Pentagon, going into PACOM.
00:51.9
So I think, first of all, there's a shock element there and that's why I'm worried.
00:55.3
So is it that though, Richard?
00:57.9
Tweet on X, sorry.
00:60.0
Yung congratulatory message.
01:01.5
Well, that's just the latest iteration of this escalating tensions
01:05.3
because some people are saying that that was just a faux pas by BBM.
01:08.8
Perhaps na-excite siya masyado, na-congratulate siya.
01:11.3
But I think that was quite calculated.
01:13.0
I think the president was calculating.
01:14.4
Hindi tinitignan niya kung anong maging reaction sa China.
01:16.5
Yun ang basa ko dun eh.
01:17.4
Or sinasabing sa China na we have options in terms of getting closer to Taiwan, friendlier to Taiwan.
01:23.3
Pero okay, I'm going to cut you off right there.
01:26.4
Because historically, we do have...
01:27.9
We do follow this one-China...
01:30.3
We have our own one-China policy.
01:32.2
But unlike other countries, we also have special relationships with Taiwan.
01:37.7
Abukod dun sa 200,000 OFWs natin dun.
01:40.3
Andun yung MECO office.
01:41.7
Yes, but the thing is, okay, just to be clear, I mean, I've been in Taiwan.
01:46.6
I was a visiting scholar there in National Changsha.
01:48.4
I met President Ma.
01:49.4
I met President Tsai.
01:50.5
One of the things I always notice when I meet them as a Filipino is like how little interaction we really have with Taiwan
01:55.3
compared to how much is at stake.
01:57.2
Not only 200,000.
01:57.9
Not only 200,000 OFWs.
01:59.3
But Taiwan is like the center of the universe when it comes to semiconductor production.
02:03.6
They're a super high-tech country.
02:05.1
You go to Vietnam.
02:06.1
You go to Thailand.
02:06.7
You go to Malaysia.
02:07.5
Vietnamese investors are all over the place.
02:09.6
You look at the Philippines.
02:10.5
Actually, not much has been going on.
02:12.4
And then during Digong, you had a former presidential spokesman who openly said,
02:16.6
oh, Taiwan is essentially a non-existent political entity.
02:19.9
It's just part of China.
02:21.1
So actually, there was a lot of dismissiveness.
02:22.5
And let's not forget, the other big problem we have is we don't put professional diplomats to represent us.
02:27.9
It's usually some ex-official, some businessman.
02:31.1
Actually, I think with Sylvester Bell, it's a better case because we have so many OFWs.
02:34.9
So it's a really under-tapped relationship considering that it takes you just one hour to go to Taipei from Manila,
02:40.7
three hours to Singapore, three hours to Malaysia.
02:43.0
So what President Bibiang is perhaps saying here is that this under-tapped relationship could be a little bit more tapped than usual.
02:49.0
And they talk about economic relationship.
02:51.0
They talk about people-to-people.
02:52.0
But it could be strategic, especially because of ETCA.
02:54.0
If we give Americans more access to bases in Cagayan, Isabela,
02:57.9
more presence in Batanes for China, that's a nightmare situation.
03:04.2
Just when they're also worried about Ayungin Xol.
03:06.9
So this is where I think we need to have some conversation, really, with our Chinese counterparts.
03:11.0
Is it time to revisit the One China Policy?
03:13.6
This was actually adopted during Marcos Sr.'s time.
03:16.8
Fifty years later, should we rethink it?
03:19.6
And what cards do we have on that side?
03:21.8
Hindi ba pagka, kumbaga, nagagalit na nga sila dun sa EDGA eh.
03:25.9
And we further infuriate them.
03:28.1
We risk ourselves getting into that conflict on that side of the region.
03:34.3
Well, first of all, I would say there's like 50 shades of One China Policy, right?
03:38.2
Correct, correct.
03:38.9
More than 100 countries around the world.
03:40.5
I mean, ilan na lang bansa na hindi...
03:41.7
Kanya-kanyang interpretation.
03:43.9
So how you execute it really depends.
03:45.9
And it goes from administration to administration.
03:47.6
So we're just telling the Chinese that we may have a different shade of One China Policy,
03:52.6
which may be darker than what you want.
03:54.6
So I think that's a good...
03:55.5
In fact, you're absolutely right, Gretchen,
03:57.9
there is risk here, but there's also opportunity here.
04:00.6
Now, one of my controversial semi-arguments,
04:02.7
and I stand to be corrected by our friends in the government and all,
04:05.3
is that we actually can use the EDGA near Taiwan as a leverage of West Philippine Sea.
04:10.5
So we can tell the Chinese,
04:11.8
okay, there's EDGA, but it's up to us to decide how many American troops are there,
04:16.6
what weapon systems they put,
04:17.7
how much further north and north the Americans are going to go.
04:20.4
In exchange, medyo bring it down in the West Philippine Sea.
04:24.5
So that gives you leverage.
04:27.3
It could be, right?
04:27.9
Both of us are playing for leverage.
04:29.6
The Chinese are seeing what we're doing, and we're seeing what you're doing.
04:31.5
May nababasa ako kasi na pagka nagre-react daw yung China violently against something.
04:36.4
Like for example, this pronouncement, congratulatory message of the President,
04:40.1
medyo dun sensitive si China eh.
04:42.3
Which in case nakita natin dito, our ambassador was summoned in China.
04:48.3
So yun siguro, yung parang touchpoint, sensitive touchpoint.
04:50.8
They're always sensitive.
04:52.1
I remember every time with their...
04:53.8
You offend the feelings of one billion people, yung mga ganun.
04:57.9
Richard's defense chief, Guibo Chodoro, also went in expressing his dismay over, quote,
05:04.9
the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stooping down to gutter-level talk and even insulting the Philippine President.
05:15.0
Here, I'm gonna make trouble.
05:16.4
Probably Guibo will not come to my show here anymore.
05:19.1
Yan itong sabihin ko.
05:20.5
Ay, anong ko na sasabihin ko?
05:22.1
Hindi naman siya masyadong gutter.
05:24.1
I think Guibo is not saying gutter.
05:25.8
And I think Guibo is doing a fantastic job of calling out.
05:27.9
Some of the wolf warrior diplomacy, you know, pakiyot na mga ano.
05:32.1
But, I'd rather have our DFA take the lead on statements about China.
05:37.6
When I hear non-DFA people saying, there's no point in diplomacy with China.
05:41.6
You know, malapit ang elections.
05:45.7
Mainit ang tao sa China.
05:47.4
I know everyone wants to be suddenly tough on China.
05:49.9
I'm not talking with Guibo per se.
05:51.6
But I remember very well during Duterte time, ilan lang kami, nag-oppose kay Duterte.
05:55.9
I'll just say it openly.
05:57.9
So, uso na ngayon maging anti-China and all.
06:00.2
For me, dapat ang uso ngayon, statesmanship.
06:02.6
Because mataas na intention.
06:04.1
Your president has already made the right decision.
06:08.9
Okay, this is the time for serious statesmanship.
06:11.6
This is not contributing.
06:12.8
So, all due respect, this is a great way of calling it out.
06:16.2
But I'd rather have Enrique Manalo and DFA people take the lead on this.
06:19.9
Why do you say that?
06:20.8
I mean, we've always...
06:21.9
We've seen that in the past year that tensions have been heightened.
06:26.1
Why are you suddenly...
06:27.9
You're becoming much more cautious now.
06:28.9
Is that related to...
06:30.9
This doesn't sound Heidarian, right?
06:32.9
I'm always the guy, let's go, let's go.
06:33.9
Is that related to the Taiwan election result?
06:36.9
I mean, for me, I think dark clouds are gathering.
06:39.9
China is very jittery these days.
06:41.4
Their economy is slowing down.
06:42.9
Xi Jinping is consolidating power.
06:44.9
So, everything goes strong.
06:46.9
We're not giving them anything.
06:48.8
I think there should be always an off-ramp in any situation of escalating tensions.
06:53.6
Just to make sure you keep it below a threshold.
06:55.8
Having said that, I'm still going to be Heidarian.
06:57.3
And I'm going to say, we need to show to China that we're here to get their respect.
07:01.3
I mean, Xi didn't respect us before.
07:03.3
You know, human nature, as you gather, you speak out, ganyan.
07:07.3
Medyo lumalapit ka sa risk.
07:09.3
You're poking the bear, kung baga.
07:11.3
Now, sinabi na ni Ambassador Huang Xilian na we are at a crossroads.
07:16.3
Don't play with fire.
07:17.3
We're at a crossroads.
07:19.3
I mean, do we just take this as more like, you know...
07:22.3
Is that a warning?
07:23.3
Ganito ang point ko.
07:25.3
I have nothing against...
07:27.3
Nothing is going sports mode.
07:28.3
What I'm against is you go from zero to ten in like one year.
07:34.3
Look at where we were under the...
07:35.3
Like, if Aquino were the former president and then we're here right now, it's okay.
07:39.3
You went from six to eight or six...
07:41.3
You went from bigong to this.
07:43.3
Zero to ten, ganon.
07:44.3
Medyo hindi ma-appreciate, hindi ma-process ng China.
07:47.3
Speaking of, speaking of...
07:48.3
That's why I'm a little bit worried.
07:49.3
We made pronouncements that we were going to improve infrastructure in the Kalayaan group of islands.
07:56.3
I mean, is that further heightened tensions?
07:59.3
What do you think about that?
08:01.3
What do you think about announcing it?
08:03.3
That's number one.
08:04.3
And number two, is it the right decision to go?
08:07.3
The right direction to go at this point?
08:09.3
Again, this is like...
08:10.3
Again, all due respect to General Bronner.
08:14.3
We also know he was there in the Royal Revolution, right?
08:17.3
Oh, na-water cannon siya.
08:19.3
So, again, I am all for patriotism.
08:21.3
I'm just saying, huwag natin isabay na sports mode natin all.
08:25.3
Kasi China is very jittery right now.
08:27.3
And they have like armada of militia wrestlers here in the West Philippine Sea.
08:31.3
Kailangan natin tandaan yun.
08:32.3
Except we've seen, actually.
08:34.3
It takes one fool to completely change the complexion of everything like that.
08:37.3
So, now you see why I'm kind of worried, suddenly.
08:40.3
These projects are already...
08:41.3
Have been budgeted.
08:42.3
Then do it quietly and slowly and sequentially.
08:47.3
And even that graphic, no?
08:49.3
Comparing China's military might with the US's military might.
08:54.3
I mean, medyo iba yung strengths and weaknesses nila.
08:56.3
Pero may laban siya eh.
08:58.3
And it's nothing to laugh about.
09:00.3
It's nothing to scoff at.
09:01.3
Medyo nakakatakot siya.
09:03.3
Kaya nga for me, I'm not endorsing any brand.
09:06.3
We need a Goldilocks approach, right?
09:08.3
Not too hot, not too cold.
09:10.3
The fundamental problem with Philippine foreign boss,
09:12.3
I've been written books and all about this.
09:14.3
We go these wild swings.
09:16.3
So, what's the sweet spot then?
09:18.3
The sweet spot is something you have to find.
09:21.3
But I don't think it's what we have right now.
09:23.3
Because I think we're overdoing it.
09:25.3
Kaya na sabi ko, shift gears tayo.
09:27.3
I'm going one, two, three.
09:28.3
I think we should have been at level three now.
09:30.3
We're already at level five right now.
09:32.3
So for me, you need to have a little bit of off-ramp.
09:34.3
The one good thing though, is you have a president.
09:37.3
He's very statesman-like.
09:39.3
You know, if you look at the statement of the president.
09:40.3
So, I want to hear more Enrique Manalo sometimes
09:45.3
Because I think we have already made it clear to China
09:47.3
that this is not Duterte administration.
09:49.3
We're not gonna be pushovers.
09:51.3
We're gonna stand our ground.
09:52.3
I'm all for that.
09:53.3
But level mo lang yan.
09:55.3
I-calibrate mo lang.
09:56.3
So, calibrated assertiveness is my position.
09:59.3
That's what we should do.
10:00.3
Could we learn a thing or two about how Taiwan has dealt
10:03.3
with the cross-strait situation?
10:06.3
With how DPP has dealt with it?
10:09.3
I mean, siyempre sila rin eh.
10:11.3
Pareho, they're managing that relations.
10:13.3
If you look at Tsai Ing-wen,
10:15.3
she comes from Democratic Progressive Party
10:17.3
which is known to be more pro-independence.
10:19.3
But throughout her eight-year term in office,
10:21.3
you didn't hear a single indication
10:23.3
that they're gonna push for a referendum.
10:25.3
Extremely careful.
10:26.3
Extremely careful.
10:27.3
I think there was one time though.
10:28.3
I think, was it the Vice President from the US visited?
10:31.3
Something like that.
10:32.3
But if you look at it,
10:33.3
in fairness to Tsai Ing-wen,
10:35.3
she has been a stateswoman at the highest level.
10:38.3
And we're hoping,
10:39.3
and I kinda met William Lai last year during an event.
10:42.3
He gave a speech.
10:43.3
I feel there's that sense of continuity there.
10:45.3
So, if Taiwan, na sobrang kalaban talaga nila yung kabila,
10:49.3
At saka may threat na.
10:50.3
Mayroong magdumala.
10:51.3
What if no return?
10:52.3
Okay, obviously tapos na yung election sa Taiwan.
10:54.3
Pero what if yung komentang yung nanalo?
10:57.3
Would things be so much more different here for us?
11:00.3
They are friendlier towards China.
11:02.3
Which is ironic because yun ang kalaban nila ng Civil War.
11:05.3
Pero nagbago na yung ihip ng hangit.
11:07.3
Parang MILF tsaka MLF.
11:08.3
But if you follow the Taiwanese elections,
11:10.3
no one talked about reunification.
11:11.3
Because 70% of Taiwanese,
11:13.3
this was just around 20% a decade ago,
11:15.3
now feel purely as Taiwanese.
11:18.3
That means that any party in China,
11:21.3
Republic of China,
11:22.3
has to really thread a careful line.
11:24.3
In the same way, in the Philippines,
11:25.3
80% are tough against China.
11:28.3
So, there's a consensus building in both countries
11:30.3
and that will shape their democratic politics.
11:32.3
Dapat morning show tayo kasi masyadong nangyayari.
11:34.3
Pero alam mo Richard,
11:35.3
I trust na hindi pa to yung end of it.
11:38.3
So for sure, balik ka.
11:39.3
Siguro yung message niya,
11:41.3
I'll join you from Beijing next.
11:42.3
Don't let emotions run high.
11:44.3
And you're right,
11:45.3
this is the first time I've seen you like this.
11:47.3
And we talk this way,
11:48.3
because it's the first time we've seen you like this.
11:49.3
It's the first time we've seen you like this.
11:50.3
Very Uncle Darian.
11:51.3
May nawawala pala si Ju.
11:52.3
At the start of 2024.
11:54.3
Alright, thank you so much for your insights tonight
11:56.3
and your time for joining us.
11:57.3
Pleasure, thank you.
11:59.3
UP Asian Center Senior Lecturer, Richard Hay Darian.
12:01.3
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